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The behaviour of the water resource system of the Peribonka River (Quebec, Canada) exploited for hydropower is evaluated under various hydrological regimes, using different climate change scenarios. The hydrological regime of the recent past and the regimes of 30 climate projections are considered. The potential hydrological regimes are simulated for climate projections from five general circulation models (GCM) for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios and three temporal horizons (2020, 2050 and 2080). For each hydrological regime, weekly reservoir operating rules are calculated with a dynamic and stochastic optimization model. Simulations of the water resource system with adapted operating rules in these climate change contexts are compared with the management of the water resource system at the control period (1961–1990). For the majority of climate projections, the analysis of simulations in the context of climate change shows an increase in hydropower and in annual unproductive spills. These increases reach 22% and 300%, respectively, compared to the control period. Also, the reliability of a reservoir is compromised for half of the climate projections, with annual probabilities reaching above the maximum operating levels, up to 0.3%, whereas these probabilities were null for the control period. Despite the rise in production, the annual efficiency of the power plants would fluctuate between −5 to +8%, depending on the power plant, the climate projection and the horizon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Chute-du-Diable watershed (Quebec, Canada) is studied by comparing statistics on current and projected future discharge resulting from a wide range of climate change scenarios. The use of 10 equally weighted climate projections from a combination of 5 general circulation models (GCMs) and 2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) allows for the definition of an uncertainty envelope of future hydrologic variables. GCM data is downscaled using the change factor approach for 30-year time slices centered around years 2020, 2050 and 2080. To estimate natural variability, synthetic time series are then computed for each horizon and for each climate change scenario, using a stochastic weather generator (30 series of 30 years), and are entered into a hydrology model. Future hydrological regimes are then compared to the control period (1961–1990) using the annual and seasonal mean discharge, peak discharge and timing of peak discharge criteria. Results indicate a 1–14°C increase in seasonal temperature and a −9 to +55% change in seasonal precipitation. The largest increases in both temperature and precipitation are observed in the winter and spring seasons. The main hydrologic impact observed is a spring flood appearing 1–5 weeks earlier than usual and a modification of its amplitude from −40 to +25%. Most scenarios suggest increases in the winter, spring and fall discharge, whereas summer is expected to see a decrease in discharge. While there is still a large scatter in projected values, the uncertainty analysis projects a better view of the most probable future hydrologic behaviour of the watershed. Of all sources of uncertainty considered in this study, the largest comes from the choice of a GCM. Accordingly, all impact studies based on results from only one GCM should be interpreted with caution. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

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