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Accurate short-time passenger volume prediction can guarantee the efficient scheduling command of urban rail transit. However, the short-time passenger flow of rail transit has the characteristics of nonlinearity and high randomness. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of short-time passenger volume, the Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) method and Human Evolutionary Optimization Algorithm (HEOA) is employed to optimize the bi-directional long short-term memory neural network (BiLSTM). Thus, a combined STL-HEOA-BiLSTM prediction model is proposed. Firstly, the inbound passenger volume along the urban rail transit is classified according to the Pearson correlation number. Secondly, the STL algorithm decomposes different types of short-time passenger flow data into Trend component (Tt), Seasonal component (St) and Residual component (Rt). Thirdly, the HEOA optimizes the various types of hyper-parameters of the BiLSTM model. Finally, the optimized BiLSTM model predicts Tt, St and Rt individually, and the final prediction value is obtained based on the combination of the three predictions. Three evaluation metrics are used to assess the results and quantify the effectiveness of the combined model. The example analysis shows that the prediction accuracy of the combined STL-HEOA-BiLSTM model surpasses that of the other six common and combined models in forecasting short-duration passenger flow. This experimental result shows the effectiveness, accuracy and applicability of the STL-HEOA-BiLSTM model proposed in this paper. It is demonstrated that the proposed model has a reference value for urban rail transit operators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective management of urban rail transit systems increasingly centers on short-term passenger flow prediction which is a key factor in operational scheduling decisions. The critical need to use existing infrastructure efficiently and avoid potential emergencies due to large crowd gatherings. The advancements in short-term passenger flow forecasting have become essential within the intelligent transportation system domain. Despite its importance, there is a prominent gap in research specifically addressing the prediction of various types of passenger flows in subway systems. To bridge the gap, the paper proposed an innovative integrated method combining CNN-LSTM and SVM with Wavelet Transform harnessing their collective strengths. The approach involves a multi-stage process. Initially, passenger flow data is dissected into high and low-frequency series using wavelet transform. In the prediction phase, CNN-LSTM and SVM techniques are employed to, respectively learn and forecast these high and low-frequency sequence. The final phase involves the reintegration of these various predicted sequences through wavelet transform. The integrated approach aims to provide a more accurate prediction of short-term passenger flows in urban rail transit catering to the specific demands of the complex and dynamic field. The analysis shows that the SVM based Wavelet Transform method outperforms the CNN-LSTM based Wavelet Transform method in terms of efficiency and accuracy. Both approaches achieve better results than classical prediction techniques for passenger flow prediction on evaluation metrics, i.e., MAPE (9.80% and 7.28%), VAPE (0.78% and 3.85%), RMSE (2.48% and 0.76%), MSE (14.86% and 4.65%), R2 (1.57% and 12.57%) and accuracy (85.00% and 90.00%) respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate prediction of passenger flow is crucial in improving the quality of the service of intercity high-speed railways. At present, there are a few studies on such predictions for railway origin–destination (O-D) pairs, and usually only a single factor is considered, yielding a low prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose a neural network model based on multi-source data (NN-MSD) to predict the O-D passenger flow of intercity high-speed railways at different times in one day in the short term, considering the factors of time, space, and weather. Firstly, the factors that influence time-varying passenger flow are analyzed based on multi-source data. The cyclical characteristics, spatial and temporal fusion characteristics, and weather characteristics are extracted. Secondly, a neural network model including three modules is designed based on the characteristics. A fully connected network (FCN) model is used in the first module to process the classification data. A bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) model is used in the second module to process the time series data. The results of the first module and the second module are spliced and fused in the third module using an FCN model. Finally, an experimental analysis is performed for the Guangzhou–Zhuhai intercity high-speed railway in China, in which three groups of comparison experiments are designed. The results show that the proposed NN-MSD model can predict many O-D pairs with a high and stable accuracy, which outperforms the baseline models, and multi-source data are very helpful in improving the prediction accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate passenger flow forecasting in urban rail transit (URT) could provide a vital reference for operators' timely operation management. However, due to the enormous scale of the metro network, it is unwise to forecast passenger flows at the station scale individually. In this paper, a forecasting framework is proposed for network-scale forecasting tasks considering both accuracy and efficiency. There are mainly three stages in the forecasting framework. Firstly, three kinds of similarity measurements are presented regarding the adjacent similarity, geographic location similarity, and trend similarity. Secondly, three similarity graphs are formed by combining the three kinds of similarity measurements and flow time series. Thirdly, the multigraph network is applied to perform passenger flow forecasting. The experimental results indicated that the proposed method performs relatively accurately for the network-scale prediction with economic time costs. Specifically, the proposed model could acquire the feasible forecasts compared with the best disaggregate model using less than half of calculation costs, and above 10% reduction in root-mean squared error (RMSE) compared with the best aggregate model in the benchmark trials. Extensive contrast experiments were conducted to investigate the sensitivity and interpretability of the proposed model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the development of modern cities, urban rail transit has become an indispensable part of residents' travelling mode, and accurate prediction of urban rail transit passenger flow is particularly important. However, due to the non-linearity and non-stability of passenger flow, the low quality of big data and the lack of data make it more and more difficult to predict the passenger flow of urban rail transit. In this paper, we propose a unique model structure that ingeniously integrates Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) with fused residual network connections, and a self-attention mechanism. The design of this model is primarily to effectively handle complex and low-quality data, which is often prevalent in passenger flow prediction scenarios. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, we used data from the Beijing urban rail transit in 2016 for prediction. In the experiments, we performed comparison study and ablation study. The experimental results show that the model proposed in this paper has significantly improved prediction accuracy in both horizontal and vertical comparisons. This outcome substantiates that the proposed model can not only effectively handle complex and low-quality data but also extract short-term features and long-term dependency features of passenger flow well, thereby achieving more accurate predictions. • Integration of GRU, CNN with fused residual connections, and self-attention mechanism constitutes a novel model. • The model is capable of handling complex and lower-quality data, significantly improving the accuracy of predictions. • The model can simultaneously extract short-term features and long-term dependency features from time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In light of the problems of slow convergence speed, insufficient optimization accuracy and easy falling into local optima in the sparrow search algorithm, this paper proposes an adaptive sinusoidal-disturbance-strategy sparrow search algorithm (ASDSSA) and its mathematical equation. Firstly, the initial population quality of the algorithm is improved by fusing cubic chaos mapping and perturbation compensation factors; secondly, the sinusoidal-disturbance-strategy is introduced to update the mathematical equation of the discoverer's position to improve the information exchange ability of the population and the global search performance of the algorithm; finally, the adaptive Cauchy mutation strategy is used to improve the ability of the algorithm to jump out of the local optimal solutions. Through the optimization experiments on eight benchmark functions and CEC2017 test functions, as well as the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and time complexity analysis, the results show that the improved algorithm has better optimization performance and convergence efficiency. Further, the improved algorithm was applied to optimize the parameters of the long short term memory network (LSTM) model for passenger flow prediction on selected metro passenger flow datasets. The effectiveness and feasibility of the improved algorithm were verified by experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Station passenger float forecasting is a normal spatio-temporal statistics forecasting problem. Effectively capturing comprehensive spatio-temporal correlations in such data plays a key role in solving such problems. This paper proposes Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Network Based on Periodic Component (Periodic ST-GCN) to predict the passenger glide at public transportation stations. The model now not solely captures the spatio-temporal traits of visitors' facts through the spatio-temporal convolution block with a sandwich shape composed of one spatial-dimensional convolution and two temporal dimensional convolutions. Also, it effectively considers the periodicity of passenger flow at public transportation stations through the recent, daily and weekly periodic components and, because the graph convolution in the spatial dimension uses pure convolution operations, it reduces the model' training parameters and converges faster. Through the experiment of predicting the Origin–Destination (OD) of passenger flow at public transportation stations in Chongqing, it is found that Periodic ST-GCN achieves better results in two evaluation indicators, mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square deviation (RMSE). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fuzzy logic systems (FLSs) are proper tools for learning and predicting of real-world problems. Type-2 fuzzy sets are developments of the conventional type-1 fuzzy sets which are applied for prediction problems with uncertainty. Interval type-2 fuzzy logic system (IT2 FLSs) is the most wildly used type-2 FLS due to its efficiency and simplicity. Passenger demand prediction has a crucial role in the public transportation sector. Because of the nonlinearity and instability of the passenger arrivals prediction, IT2 FLS can be an appropriate method for solving this problem. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy logic system named KIT2 TSK for passenger arrivals prediction in subway stations. In our proposed model, we utilize the Kumaraswamy distribution in the construction of an IT2 TSK FLS. Furthermore, we develop a new input selection measure that applies the SchweizerSklar t-conorm operator in the variable selection process. The flexibility of the Kumaraswamy distribution leads to the ability to approximate several distributions using the same equation by different values for its shape parameters. Utilizing this property, we adopt our proposed model for passenger arrivals prediction of one line of the Tehran subway system as a case study. Moreover, to see the results on unusual days, passenger demand on public holidays, weekends, and special events are also taken into account. The results demonstrate that our proposed methodology has better performance in the hourly prediction of passenger arrivals compared to the benchmarks. The results for the chaotic Mackey-Glass problem also show the superiority of our proposed model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The metro system is indispensable for alleviating traffic congestion in the urban transportation system. Precise metro passenger flow (MPF) prediction is crucial in ensuring smooth operations of the metro system. Recently, the graph convolutional network (GCN), which is effective in the spatial feature extraction, has been applied in traffic prediction. However, most existing GCN-based methods construct the empirical graphs based on distance and adjacency, which cannot fully express the correlations of metro stations. This paper proposes a novel MPF prediction method consisting of three parts: K-means-based metro station functional clustering (KMSFC), external feature fusion, and dual-view recurrent GCN (DVRGCN). The KMSFC identifies the metro stations both having similar MPF changing tendencies and being located in similar urban functional areas. Furthermore, the DVRGCN is designed to simultaneously capture the spatiotemporal and external features. The dual-view GCN module in the DVRGCN captures both explicit and implicit spatial features of the metro traffic network. To demonstrate the capability for making accurate MPF predictions, the experiments using a real-world metro traffic dataset are conducted. The ablation experiments are also performed to prove the contribution of each module in the proposed method. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms other state-of-the-art traffic prediction methods. • Precise clustering of passenger travel patterns at different metro stations. • Comprehensive consideration of spatial and temporal features of metro networks. • Informative presentation of passenger flow volumes for different metro stations. • Accurate predictions of future passenger flows of all metro stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development requirements of shared buses are extremely urgent to alleviate urban traffic congestions by improving road resource utilization and to provide a neotype transportation mode with good user experiences. The key to shared bus implementation lies in accurately predicting travel requirements and planning dynamic routes. However, the sparseness and the high volatility of shared bus data bring a great resistance to accurate prediction of travel requirements. Based on the consideration of user experiences, optimization objectives of shared bus route planning are significantly different from traditional public transportation and shared bus route planning is far more challenging than online car-hailing services due to the relatively high number of passengers. In this paper, we put forward a two-stage approach (SubBus), which is composed of travel requirement prediction and dynamic routes planning, based on various crowdsourced shared bus data to generate dynamic routes for shared buses in the “last mile” scene. First, we analyze the resident travel behaviors to obtain five predictive features, such as flow, time, week, location, and bus, and utilize them to predict travel requirements accurately based on a machine learning model. Second, we design a dynamic programming algorithm to generate dynamic, optimal routes with fixed destinations for multiple operating buses utilizing prediction results based on operating characteristics of shared buses. Extensive experiments are performed on real crowdsourced shared subway shuttle bus data and demonstrate that SubBus outperforms other methods on dynamic route planning for the “last mile” scene. Note to Practitioners—This paper is inspired by the problem of shared subway shuttle bus dynamic route planning for the “last mile” scene, and it is also applicable to other scenes, including commuting scenes, urban transportation hub scenes, and destination scenes of the tourist market. Shared bus operation routes at such scenes are usually aimed at trips with fixed destinations. Existing approaches to planning routes are generally designed for traditional transportation, such as traditional buses and taxis. In this paper, we propose a novel two-stage dynamic route planning approach (SubBus) based on the operation characteristics of shared subway shuttle buses. We perform a resident travel behavior analysis to improve the accuracy of travel requirement prediction. After that, we combine the prediction results and station properties to gain shared bus optimal routes. We then display how to apply SubBus to optimize shared bus operation status based on crowdsourced shared subway shuttle bus data generated by Panda Bus Company. We keep a continuous collaboration with the company to optimize the approach details and experimental effects, which demonstrate that our approach can generate effective routes for shared subway shuttle buses to optimize operation status on the “last mile” issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate short-term passenger flow prediction plays an important role in transit planning and operation. Existing research is mostly based on a joint modelling approach in which transit demand is predicted in an aggregated manner taking the overall passenger flow as input. A critical problem for the joint modelling approach is that the complexity of passenger flow composition and the distinct behavioural response to influential factors are missing out. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a separate modelling approach for passenger flow prediction based on behavioural patterns. To this end, we develop a novel hybrid decision tree (HDT) model coupled with a decision tree model and time series model. The upper layer is a decision tree model, in which the dataset is divided according to passenger types and influential factors, while the lower layer is the time series model achieved by the recurrent neural network. Particularly, this research first undertakes passenger classification using smartcard data through cluster analysis, from which the correlation between the classified passenger flow and influential factors is obtained. The proposed method is tested in a real-life bus route in Guangzhou, China. We also investigate the impact of passenger classification schemes and the minimum amount of data contained by leaf nodes on the performance of the HDT model. Based on this, we recommend the best classification scheme and the optimal value of the minimum amount of data contained by leaf nodes. Comparisons show that our method outperforms other traditional methods in terms of both prediction accuracy and stability. In addition, our method could also provide the prediction of passenger flow composition, which provides more references for customized bus service design. • A novel hybrid decision trees combining the advantages of machine learning model and time series method. • Our method can handle big data by capturing correlations between the external and internal factors. • As opposed to joint modelling, our method is able to predict passenger flow composition. • The prediction outcome is quite outstanding with MAPE of as low as 5%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper models the metro system as knowledge graph for passenger flow prediction. • It combines traffic patterns and land-use features for knowledge graph construction. • It proposes a SARGCN model for spatiotemporal prediction on metro knowledge graphs. • It uses an attention mechanism to learn the correlation between inflow and outflow. • Validated on two metro datasets, it outperforms numerous advanced baselines. With the rapid development of intelligent operation and management in metro systems, accurate network-scale passenger flow prediction has become an essential component in real-time metro management. Although numerous novel methods have been applied in this field, critical barriers still exist in integrating travel behaviors and comprehensive spatiotemporal dependencies into prediction. This study constructs the metro system as a knowledge graph and proposes a split-attention relational graph convolutional network (SARGCN) to address these challenges. Breaking the limitations of physical metro networks, we develop a metro topological graph construction method based on the historical origin–destination (OD) matrix to involve travel behaviors. Then, we design a metro knowledge graph construction method to incorporate land-use features. To adapt prior knowledge of metro systems, we subsequently propose the SARGCN model for network-scale metro passenger flow prediction. This model integrates the relational graph convolutional network (R-GCN), split-attention mechanism, and long short-term memory (LSTM) to explore the spatiotemporal correlations and dependence between passenger inflow and outflow. According to the model validation conducted on the metro systems in Shenzhen and Hangzhou, China, the SARGCN model outperforms the advanced baselines. Furthermore, quantitative experiments also reveal the effectiveness of its component and the constructed metro knowledge graph. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to effectively manage the use of existing infrastructures and prevent the emergency caused by the large gathered crowd, the short-term passenger flow forecasting technology becomes more and more significant in the field of intelligent transportation system. However, there are few studies discussing how to predict different kinds of passenger flows in the subway system. In this paper, a novel hybrid model Wavelet-SVM is proposed, and it combines the complementary advantages of Wavelet and SVM models, and meanwhile overcomes their shortcomings respectively. The Wavelet-SVM forecasting approach consists of three important stages. The first stage decomposes the passenger flow data into different high frequency and low frequency series by wavelet. During the prediction stage, the SVM method is applied to learn and predict the corresponding high frequency and low frequency series. In the last stage, the diverse predicted sequences are reconstructed by wavelet. The experimental results show that the approach not only has the best forecasting performance compared with the state-of-the-art techniques but also appears to be the most promising and robust based on the historical passenger flow data in Beijing subway system and several standard evaluation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]