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Scientists, public servants, and patient advocates alike increasingly question the validity of published scientific results, endangering the public’s acceptance of science. Here, I argue that emerging flaws in the integrity of the peer review system are largely responsible. Distortions in peer review are driven by economic forces and enabled by a lack of accountability of journals, editors, and authors. One approach to restoring trust in the validity of published results may be to establish basic rules that render peer review more transparent, such as publishing the reviews (a practice already embraced by some journals) and monitoring not only the track records of authors but also of editors and journals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to produce timely and accurate flu forecasts in the United States can significantly impact public health. Augmenting forecasts with internet data has shown promise for improving forecast accuracy and timeliness in controlled settings, but results in practice are less convincing, as models augmented with internet data have not consistently outperformed models without internet data. In this paper, we perform a controlled experiment, taking into account data backfill, to improve clarity on the benefits and limitations of augmenting an already good flu forecasting model with internet-based nowcasts. Our results show that a good flu forecasting model can benefit from the augmentation of internet-based nowcasts in practice for all considered public health-relevant forecasting targets. The degree of forecast improvement due to nowcasting, however, is uneven across forecasting targets, with short-term forecasting targets seeing the largest improvements and seasonal targets such as the peak timing and intensity seeing relatively marginal improvements. The uneven forecasting improvements across targets hold even when “perfect” nowcasts are used. These findings suggest that further improvements to flu forecasting, particularly seasonal targets, will need to derive from other, non-nowcasting approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While the high prevalence of preterm births and its impact on infant mortality in the US have been widely acknowledged, recent data suggest that even full-term births in the US face substantially higher mortality risks compared to European countries with low infant mortality rates. In this paper, we use the most recent birth records in the US to more closely analyze the primary causes underlying mortality rates among full-term births.Methods and Findings: Linked birth and death records for the period 2010-2012 were used to identify the state- and cause-specific burden of infant mortality among full-term infants (born at 37-42 weeks of gestation). Multivariable logistic models were used to assess the extent to which state-level differences in full-term infant mortality (FTIM) were attributable to observed differences in maternal and birth characteristics. Random effects models were used to assess the relative contribution of state-level variation to FTIM. Hypothetical mortality outcomes were computed under the assumption that all states could achieve the survival rates of the best-performing states. A total of 10,175,481 infants born full-term in the US between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2012, were analyzed. FTIM rate (FTIMR) was 2.2 per 1,000 live births overall, and ranged between 1.29 (Connecticut, 95% CI 1.08, 1.53) and 3.77 (Mississippi, 95% CI 3.39, 4.19) at the state level. Zero states reached the rates reported in the 6 low-mortality European countries analyzed (FTIMR < 1.25), and 13 states had FTIMR > 2.75. Sudden unexpected death in infancy (SUDI) accounted for 43% of FTIM; congenital malformations and perinatal conditions accounted for 31% and 11.3% of FTIM, respectively. The largest mortality differentials between states with good and states with poor FTIMR were found for SUDI, with particularly large risk differentials for deaths due to sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) (odds ratio [OR] 2.52, 95% CI 1.86, 3.42) and suffocation (OR 4.40, 95% CI 3.71, 5.21). Even though these mortality differences were partially explained by state-level differences in maternal education, race, and maternal health, substantial state-level variation in infant mortality remained in fully adjusted models (SIDS OR 1.45, suffocation OR 2.92). The extent to which these state differentials are due to differential antenatal care standards as well as differential access to health services could not be determined due to data limitations. Overall, our estimates suggest that infant mortality could be reduced by 4,003 deaths (95% CI 2,284, 5,587) annually if all states were to achieve the mortality levels of the best-performing state in each cause-of-death category. Key limitations of the analysis are that information on termination rates at the state level was not available, and that causes of deaths may have been coded differentially across states.Conclusions: More than 7,000 full-term infants die in the US each year. The results presented in this paper suggest that a substantial share of these deaths may be preventable. Potential improvements seem particularly large for SUDI, where very low rates have been achieved in a few states while average mortality rates remain high in most other areas. Given the high mortality burden due to SIDS and suffocation, policy efforts to promote compliance with recommended sleeping arrangements could be an effective first step in this direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While basic access to clean water is critical, another important issue is the affordability of water access for people around the globe. Prior international work has highlighted that a large proportion of consumers could not afford water if priced at full cost recovery levels. Given growing concern about affordability issues due to rising water rates, and a comparative lack of work on affordability in the developed world, as compared to the developing world, more work is needed in developed countries to understand the extent of this issue in terms of the number of households and persons impacted. To address this need, this paper assesses potential affordability issues for households in the United States using the U.S. EPA’s 4.5% affordability criteria for combined water and wastewater services. Analytical results from this paper highlight high-risk and at-risk households for water poverty or unaffordable water services. Many of these households are clustered in pockets of water poverty within counties, which is a concern for individual utility providers servicing a large proportion of customers with a financial inability to pay for water services. Results also highlight that while water rates remain comparatively affordable for many U.S. households, this trend will not continue in the future. If water rates rise at projected amounts over the next five years, conservative projections estimate that the percentage of U.S. households who will find water bills unaffordable could triple from 11.9% to 35.6%. This is a concern due to the cascading economic impacts associated with widespread affordability issues; these issues mean that utility providers could have fewer customers over which to spread the large fixed costs of water service. Unaffordable water bills also impact customers for whom water services are affordable via higher water rates to recover the costs of services that go unpaid by lower income households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There have been growing recommendations to include education in multi-disciplinary interventions targeting chronic pain management. However, effects of this strategy on short- and long-term self-management of chronic pain, remain largely unexplored. Objectives: 1. To provide an updated overview of studies that report on the impact of patient education in multi-disciplinary interventions, on self-management of chronic pain; 2. To explore associations between education and chronic pain self-management techniques; and 3. To identify the format and duration of suitable chronic pain interventions targeted at patient self-management. Methods: Design: Narrative systematic literature review of randomised or controlled study designs. Data Sources: PubMed, CINAHL, EMBASE, PsycINFO. Participants: Adult patients with chronic pain of any aetiology participating in multi-disciplinary programs that included education. Main outcome measures: Assessments of level of pain, function, quality of life, self-efficacy, self-management, and any other relevant assessments. Study Appraisal and Synthesis Methods: PRISMA guidelines, Cochrane Risk of Bias tool, and TIDieR model. Results: Database searching identified 485 potential papers. After removal of duplicates, and irrelevant articles by title and abstract, 120 full-text articles were reviewed and 27 studies were included in this systematic review. Studies were predominantly from the United States (n = 8; 29.6%). Over one hundred outcome measures were identified across all studies, with significant variation also observed in terms of how chronic pain duration was defined, and how education was delivered to participants. Overall, positive benefits of education were reported. Conclusions: Education, as part of multi-disciplinary programs, is likely to improve self-management and self-efficacy in people with chronic pain of any aetiology. Heterogeneity in terms of: chronic pain duration; educational resources; healthcare professionals; and outcome measures, were identified as limitations. Further research, in the form of Randomised Controlled Trials addressing these limitations, is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing critical global health issues, such as antimicrobial resistance, infectious disease outbreaks, and natural disasters, requires strong coordination and management across sectors. The One Health approach is the integrative effort of multiple sectors working to attain optimal health for people, animals, and the environment, and is increasingly recognized by experts as a means to address complex challenges. However, practical application of the One Health approach has been challenging. The One Health Systems Mapping and Analysis Resource Toolkit (OH-SMART) introduced in this paper was designed using a multistage prototyping process to support systematic improvement in multi-sectoral coordination and collaboration to better address complex health concerns through an operational, stepwise, and practical One Health approach. To date, OH-SMART has been used to strengthen One Health systems in 17 countries and has been deployed to revise emergency response frameworks, improve antimicrobial resistance national action plans and create multi agency infectious disease collaboration protocols. OH-SMART has proven to be user friendly, robust, and capable of fostering multi-sectoral collaboration and complex system-wide problem solving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People in different subgroups age at different rates. Surveys containing biomarkers can be used to assess these subgroup differences. We illustrate this using hand-grip strength to produce an easily interpretable, physical-based measure that allows us to compare characteristic-based ages across educational subgroups in the United States. Hand-grip strength has been shown to be a good predictor of future mortality and morbidity, and therefore a useful indicator of population aging. Data from the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) were used. Two education subgroups were distinguished, those with less than a high school diploma and those with more education. Regressions on hand-grip strength were run for each sex and race using age and education, their interactions and other covariates as independent variables. Ages of identical mean hand-grip strength across education groups were compared for people in the age range 60 to 80. The hand-grip strength of 65 year old white males with less education was the equivalent to that of 69.6 (68.2, 70.9) year old white men with more education, indicating that the more educated men had aged more slowly. This is a constant characteristic age, as defined in the Sanderson and Scherbov article “The characteristics approach to the measurement of population aging” published 2013 in Population and Development Review. Sixty-five year old white females with less education had the same average hand-grip strength as 69.4 (68.2, 70.7) year old white women with more education. African-American women at ages 60 and 65 with more education also aged more slowly than their less educated counterparts. African American men with more education aged at about the same rate as those with less education. This paper expands the toolkit of those interested in population aging by showing how survey data can be used to measure the differential extent of aging across subpopulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: As gentrification continues in New York City as well as other urban areas, residents of lower socioeconomic status maybe at higher risk for residential displacement. Yet, there have been few quantitative assessments of the health impacts of displacement. The objective of this paper is to assess the association between displacement and healthcare access and mental health among the original residents of gentrifying neighborhoods in New York City. Methods: We used 2 data sources: 1) 2005–2014 American Community Surveys to identify gentrifying neighborhoods in New York City, and 2) 2006–2014 Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System. Our cohort included 12,882 residents of gentrifying neighborhoods in 2006 who had records of emergency department visits or hospitalization at least once every 2 years in 2006–2014. Rates of emergency department visits and hospitalizations post-baseline were compared between residents who were displaced and those who remained. Results: During 2006–2014, 23% were displaced. Compared with those who remained, displaced residents were more likely to make emergency department visits and experience hospitalizations, mainly due to mental health (Rate Ratio = 1.8, 95% confidence interval = 1.5, 2.2), after controlling for baseline demographics, health status, healthcare utilization, residential movement, and the neighborhood of residence in 2006. Conclusions: These findings suggest negative impacts of displacement on healthcare access and mental health, particularly among adults living in urban areas and with a history of frequent emergency department visits or hospitalizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper forecasts the 2016 canine Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence in the United States from eight climate, geographic and societal factors. The forecast’s construction and an assessment of its performance are described. The forecast is based on a spatial-temporal conditional autoregressive model fitted to over 11 million Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence test results for dogs conducted in the 48 contiguous United States during 2011–2015. The forecast uses county-level data on eight predictive factors, including annual temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, county elevation, forestation coverage, surface water coverage, population density and median household income. Non-static factors are extrapolated into the forthcoming year with various statistical methods. The fitted model and factor extrapolations are used to estimate next year’s regional prevalence. The correlation between the observed and model-estimated county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence for the five-year period 2011–2015 is 0.902, demonstrating reasonable model accuracy. The weighted correlation (accounting for different sample sizes) between 2015 observed and forecasted county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence is 0.987, exhibiting that the proposed approach can be used to accurately forecast Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence. The forecast presented herein can a priori alert veterinarians to areas expected to see Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence beyond the accepted endemic range. The proposed methods may prove useful for forecasting other diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Heroin use in the United States has reached epidemic proportions. The objective of this paper is to estimate the annual societal cost of heroin use disorder in the United States in 2015 US dollars. Methods: An analytic model was created that included incarceration and crime; treatment for heroin use disorder; chronic infectious diseases (HIV, Hepatitis B, Hepatitis C, and Tuberculosis) and their treatments; treatment of neonatal abstinence syndrome; lost productivity; and death by heroin overdose. Results: Using literature-based estimates to populate the model, the cost of heroin use disorder was estimated to be $51.2 billion in 2015 US dollars ($50,799 per heroin user). One-way sensitivity analyses showed that overall cost estimates were sensitive to the number of heroin users, cost of HCV treatment, and cost of incarcerating heroin users. Conclusion: The annual cost of heroin use disorder to society in the United States emphasizes the need for sustained investment in healthcare and non-healthcare related strategies that reduce the likelihood of abuse and provide care and support for users to overcome the disorder. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this paper is to estimate peer influence in video gaming time among adolescents. Using a nationally representative sample of the U.S. school-aged adolescents in 2009–2010, we estimate a structural model that accounts for the potential biases in the estimate of the peer effect. Our peer group is exogenously assigned and includes one year older adolescents in the same school grade as the respondent. The peer measure is based on peers’ own reports of video gaming time. We find that an additional one hour of playing video games per week by older grade-mates results in .47 hours increase in video gaming time by male responders. We do not find significant peer effect among female responders. Effective policies aimed at influencing the time that adolescents spend video gaming should take these findings into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A common policy approach to reducing childhood obesity aims to shape the environment in which children spend most of their time: neighborhoods and schools. This paper uses richly detailed data on the body mass index (BMI) of all New York City public school students in grades K-8 to assess the potential for place-based approaches to reduce child obesity. We document variation in the prevalence of obesity across NYC public schools and census tracts, and then estimate the extent to which this variation can be explained by differences in individual-level predictors (such as race and household income). Both unadjusted and adjusted variability across neighborhoods and schools suggest place-based policies have the potential to meaningfully reduce child obesity, but under most realistic scenarios the improvement would be modest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Reductions in smoking in Arizona and California have been shown to be associated with reduced per capita healthcare expenditures in these states compared to control populations in the rest of the US. This paper extends that analysis to all states and estimates changes in healthcare expenditure attributable to changes in aggregate measures of smoking behavior in all states.Methods and Findings: State per capita healthcare expenditure is modeled as a function of current smoking prevalence, mean cigarette consumption per smoker, other demographic and economic factors, and cross-sectional time trends using a fixed effects panel data regression on annual time series data for each the 50 states and the District of Columbia for the years 1992 through 2009. We found that 1% relative reductions in current smoking prevalence and mean packs smoked per current smoker are associated with 0.118% (standard error [SE] 0.0259%, p < 0.001) and 0.108% (SE 0.0253%, p < 0.001) reductions in per capita healthcare expenditure (elasticities). The results of this study are subject to the limitations of analysis of aggregate observational data, particularly that a study of this nature that uses aggregate data and a relatively small sample size cannot, by itself, establish a causal connection between smoking behavior and healthcare costs. Historical regional variations in smoking behavior (including those due to the effects of state tobacco control programs, smoking restrictions, and differences in taxation) are associated with substantial differences in per capita healthcare expenditures across the United States. Those regions (and the states in them) that have lower smoking have substantially lower medical costs. Likewise, those that have higher smoking have higher medical costs. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that these results are robust.Conclusions: Changes in healthcare expenditure appear quickly after changes in smoking behavior. A 10% relative drop in smoking in every state is predicted to be followed by an expected $63 billion reduction (in 2012 US dollars) in healthcare expenditure the next year. State and national policies that reduce smoking should be part of short term healthcare cost containment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The “fetal origins” hypothesis suggests that fetal conditions not only affect birth characteristics such as birth weight and gestational age, but also have lifelong health implications. Despite widespread interest in this hypothesis, few methodological advances have been proposed to improve the measurement and modeling of fetal conditions. A Statistics in Medicine paper by Bollen, Noble, and Adair examined favorable fetal growth conditions (FFGC) as a latent variable. Their study of Filipino children from Cebu provided evidence consistent with treating FFGC as a latent variable that largely mediates the effects of mother’s characteristics on birth weight, birth length, and gestational age. This innovative method may have widespread utility, but only if the model applies equally well across diverse settings. Our study assesses whether the FFGC model of Cebu replicates and generalizes to a very different population of children from North Carolina (N = 705) and Pennsylvania (N = 494). Using a series of structural equation models, we find that key features of the Cebu analysis replicate and generalize while we also highlight differences between these studies. Our results support treating fetal conditions as a latent variable when researchers test the fetal origins hypothesis. In addition to contributing to the substantive literature on measuring fetal conditions, we also discuss the meaning and challenges involved in replicating prior research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

HIV incidence estimates are used to monitor HIV-1 infection in the United States. Use of laboratory biomarkers that distinguish recent from longstanding infection to quantify HIV incidence rely on having accurate knowledge of the average time that individuals spend in a transient state of recent infection between seroconversion and reaching a specified biomarker cutoff value. This paper describes five estimation procedures from two general statistical approaches, a survival time approach and an approach that fits binomial models of the probability of being classified as recently infected, as a function of time since seroconversion. We compare these procedures for estimating the mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) for two biomarkers used by the U.S. National HIV Surveillance System for determination of HIV incidence, the Aware BED EIA HIV-1 incidence test (BED) and the avidity-based, modified Bio-Rad HIV-1/HIV-2 plus O ELISA (BRAI) assay. Collectively, 953 specimens from 220 HIV-1 subtype B seroconverters, taken from 5 cohorts, were tested with a biomarker assay. Estimates of MDRI using the non-parametric survival approach were 198.4 days (SD 13.0) for BED and 239.6 days (SD 13.9) for BRAI using cutoff values of 0.8 normalized optical density and 30%, respectively. The probability of remaining in the recent state as a function of time since seroconversion, based upon this revised statistical approach, can be applied in the calculation of annual incidence in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents data from the Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies with a focus on the interrelationships among health information seeking behavior (HISB), and health status or use of preventive health measures for U.S. adults both with and without a high school diploma. Key results of ordinal and binary logistic regression analyses indicated that, after controlling for demographic factors, (1) adults with a high school diploma use more text-based health information sources while adults without a high school diploma use more oral sources, (2) using the Internet as a source of health information is more strongly related to reporting excellent/very good health status than having a high school diploma, (3) those without a high school diploma who use the Internet report the largest increase in health status over any other health information source, and (4) for those with learning disability or vision problem, a high facility in reading English is an important predictor of whether the Internet is used as a health information source. The Internet appears to play a key role in both enhancing health status and enabling use of preventive measures for those with and without a high school diploma; although, individuals without a high school diploma who use the Internet for health information derive substantial benefit in health status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) mosquitoes can transmit dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. Limited surveillance has led to uncertainty regarding the geographic ranges of these vectors globally, and particularly in regions at the present-day margins of habitat suitability such as the contiguous United States. Empirical habitat suitability models based on environmental conditions can augment surveillance gaps to describe the estimated potential species ranges, but model accuracy is unclear. We identified previously published regional and global habitat suitability models for Ae. aegypti (n = 6) and Ae. albopictus (n = 8) for which adequate information was available to reproduce the models for the contiguous U.S. Using a training subset of recently updated county-level surveillance records of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and records of counties conducting surveillance, we constructed accuracy-weighted, probabilistic ensemble models from these base models. To assess accuracy and uncertainty we compared individual and ensemble model predictions of species presence or absence to both training and testing data. The ensemble models were among the most accurate and also provided calibrated probabilities of presence for each species. The quantitative probabilistic framework enabled identification of areas with high uncertainty and model bias across the U.S. where improved models or additional data could be most beneficial. The results may be of immediate utility for counties considering surveillance and control programs for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Moreover, the assessment framework can drive future efforts to provide validated quantitative estimates to support these programs at local, national, and international scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is strong epidemiological evidence that poor diet is associated with depression. The reverse has also been shown, namely that eating a healthy diet rich in fruit, vegetables, fish and lean meat, is associated with reduced risk of depression. To date, only one randomised controlled trial (RCT) has been conducted with elevated depression symptoms being an inclusion criterion, with results showing that a diet intervention can reduce clinical levels of depression. No such RCTs have been performed in young adults. Young adults with elevated levels of depression symptoms and who habitually consume a poor diet were randomly allocated to a brief 3-week diet intervention (Diet Group) or a habitual diet control group (Control Group). The primary and secondary outcome measures assessed at baseline and after the intervention included symptoms of depression (Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale; CESD-R; and Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale– 21 depression subscale; DASS-21-D), current mood (Profile of Mood States), self-efficacy (New General Self-Efficacy Scale) and memory (Hopkins Verbal Learning Test). Diet compliance was measured via self-report questionnaires and spectrophotometry. One-hundred-and-one individuals were enrolled in the study and randomly assigned to the Diet Group or the Control Group. Upon completion of the study, there was complete data for 38 individuals in each group. There was good compliance with the diet intervention recommendations assessed using self-report and spectrophotometry. The Diet group had significantly lower self-reported depression symptoms than the Control Group on the CESD-R (p = 0.007, Cohen’s d = 0.65) and DASS-21 depression subscale (p = 0.002, Cohen’s d = 0.75) controlling for baseline scores on these scales. Reduced DASS-21 depression subscale scores were maintained on follow up phone call 3 months later (p = .009). These results are the first to show that young adults with elevated depression symptoms can engage in and adhere to a diet intervention, and that this can reduce symptoms of depression. The findings provide justification for future research into the duration of these benefits, the impacts of varying diet composition, and their biological basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We aim to determine whether a game-theoretic model between an insurer and a healthcare practice yields a predictive equilibrium that incentivizes either player to deviate from a fee-for-service to capitation payment system. Using United States data from various primary care surveys, we find that non-extreme equilibria (i.e., shares of patients, or shares of patient visits, seen under a fee-for-service payment system) can be derived from a Stackelberg game if insurers award a non-linear bonus to practices based on performance. Overall, both insurers and practices can be incentivized to embrace capitation payments somewhat, but potentially at the expense of practice performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chagas disease (CD) affects over 300,000 people in the United States, but fewer than 1% have been diagnosed and less than 0.3% have received etiological treatment. This is a significant public health concern because untreated CD can produce fatal complications. What factors prevent people with CD from accessing diagnosis and treatment in a nation with one of the world’s most advanced healthcare systems? Methodology/Principal findings: This analysis of barriers to diagnosis and treatment of CD in the US reflects the opinions of the authors more than a comprehensive discussion of all the available evidence. To enrich our description of barriers, we have conducted an exploratory literature review and cited the experience of the main US clinic providing treatment for CD. We list 34 barriers, which we group into four overlapping dimensions: systemic, comprising gaps in the public health system; structural, originating from political and economic inequalities; clinical, including toxicity of medications and diagnostic challenges; and psychosocial, encompassing fears and stigma. Conclusions: We propose this multidimensional framework both to explain the persistently low numbers of people with CD who are tested and treated and as a potential basis for organizing a public health response, but we encourage others to improve on our approach or develop alternative frameworks. We further argue that expanding access to diagnosis and treatment of CD in the US means asserting the rights of vulnerable populations to obtain timely, quality healthcare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) coordinates a labor-intensive process to measure the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among children in the United States. Random forests methods have shown promise in speeding up this process, but they lag behind human classification accuracy by about 5%. We explore whether more recently available document classification algorithms can close this gap. Materials and methods: Using data gathered from a single surveillance site, we applied 8 supervised learning algorithms to predict whether children meet the case definition for ASD based solely on the words in their evaluations. We compared the algorithms’ performance across 10 random train-test splits of the data, using classification accuracy, F1 score, and number of positive calls to evaluate their potential use for surveillance. Results: Across the 10 train-test cycles, the random forest and support vector machine with Naive Bayes features (NB-SVM) each achieved slightly more than 87% mean accuracy. The NB-SVM produced significantly more false negatives than false positives (P = 0.027), but the random forest did not, making its prevalence estimates very close to the true prevalence in the data. The best-performing neural network performed similarly to the random forest on both measures. Discussion: The random forest performed as well as more recently available models like the NB-SVM and the neural network, and it also produced good prevalence estimates. NB-SVM may not be a good candidate for use in a fully-automated surveillance workflow due to increased false negatives. More sophisticated algorithms, like hierarchical convolutional neural networks, may not be feasible to train due to characteristics of the data. Current algorithms might perform better if the data are abstracted and processed differently and if they take into account information about the children in addition to their evaluations. Conclusion: Deep learning models performed similarly to traditional machine learning methods at predicting the clinician-assigned case status for CDC’s autism surveillance system. While deep learning methods had limited benefit in this task, they may have applications in other surveillance systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Drug abuse and sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), remain significant public health concerns in the United States. Youth are at disproportionate risk of drug use and STIs/HIV, yet interventions aimed at improving STI and HIV testing and reducing STI/HIV risk behaviors through technology-based engagement in clinic settings are limited. The purpose of this study was to examine the feasibility and acceptability of Storytelling 4 Empowerment (S4E), a multilevel mobile-health drug abuse and STI/HIV preventive application (app) for clinic settings. We also explored uptake of STI/HIV testing among youth immediately post-intervention. Method: Employing community-based participatory research principles and a multi-method research design, we developed a clinician-facing app, and examined the feasibility and acceptability of S4E among clinicians (n = 6) and youth (n = 20) in an urban youth-centered community health clinic. S4E aimed to improve clinician–youth risk communication and youths’ drug use and STI/HIV knowledge, self-efficacy, and refusal skills. We also explored youths’ uptake of STI and HIV testing. Quantitative data were analyzed by computing mean scores and proportions, and qualitative analyses followed the tenets of content analysis. Results: Among eligible participants, 86.9% of youth and 85.7% of clinicians enrolled in the study, suggesting the feasibility of recruiting participants from the targeted clinic. Most clinicians identified as non-Hispanic white (83%) and female (66.7%). Among the youth, 70% identified as non-Hispanic white, followed by 30% African American, and 50% identified as female with a mean age of 19.6 (SD = 1.5, Range = 16–21). The quantitative findings suggest that the acceptability of S4E is high, as indicated by the Client Satisfaction Questionnaire (mean score = 25.2, SD: 4.8). Immediately post-intervention, all youth who reported past 90-day condomless sex or having never been tested for STIs or HIV in their lifetime, were tested for both STIs and HIV. Qualitative themes revealed four overarching themes, including S4E: (1) faciliated timely, targeted, and tailored prevention and risk reduction strategies; (2) shaped clinician and youth communication and interaction during the clinic visit; (3) may have improved uptake of STI/HIV testing and increased STI/HIV knowledge and self-efficacy; and (4) had high feasibiliy and acceptability among youth and clninicans. Conclusions: Findings suggest the feasibility and acceptability of S4E in an urban community-based health clinic setting. A next important step is to examine the efficacy of S4E in a randomized controlled trial design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although kidney transplant improves reproductive function in women with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), pregnancy in kidney transplant recipients’ remains challenging due to the risk of adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. Methods: We evaluated a retrospective cohort of 7,966 women who were aged 15–45 years and received a kidney transplant between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2011 from the United States Renal Data System with Medicare as the primary payer for the entire three years after the date of transplantation. Unadjusted and adjusted rates of pregnancy in the first three post-transplant years were calculated, using Poisson regression for the adjustment. Factors associated with pregnancy, including race, were examined using logistic regression. Results: Overall, 293 pregnancies were identified in 7966 women. The unadjusted pregnancy rate was 13.8 per thousand person-years (PTPY) (95% confidence interval (CI), 12.3–15.5). Pregnancy rates were roughly constant in the years 2005–2011 except in 2005 and 2010. The rate of pregnancy was highest in Hispanic women (21.4 PTPY; 95% CI, 17.2–26.4) and Hispanic women had a higher likelihood of pregnancy as compared to white women (OR, 1.56; CI, 1.12–2.16). Pregnancy rates were lowest in women aged 30–34 years and 35–45 years at transplant, and women aged 30–34 years and 35–45 years at transplant were less likely to ever become pregnant during the follow-up (odds ratio [OR], 0.69; CI, 0.49–0.98 and OR, 0.14; CI 0.09–0.21 respectively) as compared to women aged 25–29 years at time of transplant. Women had higher rates of pregnancy in the second and third-year post-transplant (16.0 PTPY, CI 13.2–19.2 and 16.9 PTPY, CI 14.0–20.4) than in the first-year post-transplant (9.0 PTPY, CI 7.0–11.4). In transplant recipients, pregnancy was more likely in women with ESKD due to cystic disease (OR, 2.42; CI, 1.02–5.74) or glomerulonephritis (OR, 2.14; CI, 1.07–4.31) as compared to women with ESKD due to diabetes. Conclusion: Hispanic race, younger age, and ESKD cause due to cystic disease or glomerulonephritis are significant factors associated with a higher likelihood of pregnancy. Pregnancy rates have been fairly constant over the last decade. This study improves our understanding of factors associated with pregnancy in kidney transplant recipients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies from the social and health sciences have tended to view the household as the locus of access to and distribution of care, resources, monitoring and modeling for children’s wellbeing. Obesity may present a special case for the study of investments in children, being a component of health for which more of certain inputs may not lead to better outcomes. We expanded on common measures of household structure in the child health literature by considering co-residence and relatedness of parents, grandparents, other relatives, and other children. Data were from a longitudinal sample of 6,700 children participating in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study Kindergarten Class of 1998–99 (ECLS-K), the largest U.S. national dataset with measures of child anthropometrics and household structure at seven time-points over nine years. We used lagged survey-adjusted regressions to estimate associations between household structure and subsequent changes in children’s weight between ages 5 and 14 years in terms of BMI gain and incident obesity. Adjusting for household structure more thoroughly, children living in households with two parents rather than one parent did not experience advantages in terms of less excess weight gain or lower incidence of obesity during elementary and middle school. Children living with a grandmother gained more weight than children not living with a grandmother. Living with siblings and with non-related adults was associated with less weight gain. These findings corroborate a scenario in which, for health problems associated with caloric surplus, classic household factors have more complex associations with child wellbeing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimation of influenza-like illness (ILI) using search trends activity was intended to supplement traditional surveillance systems, and was a motivation behind the development of Google Flu Trends (GFT). However, several studies have previously reported large errors in GFT estimates of ILI in the US. Following recent release of time-stamped surveillance data, which better reflects real-time operational scenarios, we reanalyzed GFT errors. Using three data sources—GFT: an archive of weekly ILI estimates from Google Flu Trends; ILIf: fully-observed ILI rates from ILINet; and, ILIp: ILI rates available in real-time based on partial reporting—five influenza seasons were analyzed and mean square errors (MSE) of GFT and ILIp as estimates of ILIf were computed. To correct GFT errors, a random forest regression model was built with ILI and GFT rates from the previous three weeks as predictors. An overall reduction in error of 44% was observed and the errors of the corrected GFT are lower than those of ILIp. An 80% reduction in error during 2012/13, when GFT had large errors, shows that extreme failures of GFT could have been avoided. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, one- to four-week ahead forecasts were generated with two separate data streams: ILIp alone, and with both ILIp and corrected GFT. At all forecast targets and seasons, and for all but two regions, inclusion of GFT lowered MSE. Results from two alternative error measures, mean absolute error and mean absolute proportional error, were largely consistent with results from MSE. Taken together these findings provide an error profile of GFT in the US, establish strong evidence for the adoption of search trends based 'nowcasts' in influenza forecast systems, and encourage reevaluation of the utility of this data source in diverse domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Medical Monitoring Project (MMP) is an HIV surveillance system that provides national estimates of HIV-related behaviors and clinical outcomes. When first implemented, MMP excluded persons living with HIV not receiving HIV care. This analysis will describe new case-surveillance-based methods to identify and recruit persons living with HIV who are out of care and at elevated risk for mortality and ongoing HIV transmission. Stratified random samples of all persons living with HIV were selected from the National HIV Surveillance System in five public health jurisdictions from 2012–2014. Sampled persons were located and contacted through seven different data sources and five methods of contact to collect interviews and medical record abstractions. Data were weighted for non-response and case reporting delay. The modified sampling methodology yielded 1159 interviews (adjusted response rate, 44.5%) and matching medical record abstractions for 1087 (93.8%). Of persons with both interview and medical record data, 264 (24.3%) would not have been included using prior MMP methods. Significant predictors were identified for successful contact (e.g., retention in care, adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 5.02; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.98–12.73), interview (e.g. moving out of jurisdiction, aOR 0.24; 95% CI: 0.12–0.46) and case reporting delay (e.g. rural residence, aOR 3.18; 95% CI: 2.09–4.85). Case-surveillance-based sampling resulted in a comparable response rate to existing MMP methods while providing information on an important new population. These methods have since been adopted by the nationally representative MMP surveillance system, offering a model for public health program, research and surveillance endeavors seeking inclusion of all persons living with HIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Latinos are the largest and fastest-growing minority group in the U.S., and Latina women represent the largest portion of minority births, having the highest birth rate in the U.S. for over 20 years. In addition, Latina women are at increased risk of entering pregnancy being overweight or having obesity and gaining excess gestational weight. Excess gestational weight gain (GWG) has short- and long-term adverse health outcomes for the woman and her child. Although culturally tailored interventions show promise toward promoting healthy GWG among Latina women, findings from current interventions have had mixed results, suggesting the need for further tailoring to meet the needs of this heterogeneous population group. This qualitative study was designed to explore first-time pregnant, low-income Latina women’s beliefs, attitudes, and experiences with GWG. The study employed qualitative research using semi-structured interviews conducted with 23 first-time pregnant Latina women between 22 and 36 weeks of gestation. Interviews were conducted by trained bilingual staff, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed using thematic analysis. Results showed that participants were uncertain if their GWG was within a healthy range. Although the majority of participants knew that GWG should be limited, they were not sure what the amount should be. In addition, the majority of participants reported attitudes of acceptance of and resignation to excessive GWG as being part of pregnancy. Several women appeared to believe that they did not have control over their weight gain during pregnancy. Moreover, analysis identified that sociocultural and interpersonal factors such as social support influence the beliefs, attitudes, and experiences with GWG of the low-income, majority immigrant Latina women who participated in this study. Study findings can be used to further tailor prenatal care practices and interventions aimed at altering modifiable risk factors associated with excess GWG among Latinas. Future interventions designed for low-income, immigrant Latina women that consider sociocultural influences on women’s beliefs and attitudes related to GWG, as well as the influence of social support networks on women’s health behaviors during pregnancy, will likely be more effective in preventing excessive GWG. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Exposure to fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) is hazardous to health. Our aim was to directly estimate the health and longevity impacts of current PM2.5 concentrations and the benefits of reductions from 1999 to 2015, nationally and at county level, for the entire contemporary population of the contiguous United States.Methods and Findings: We used vital registration and population data with information on sex, age, cause of death, and county of residence. We used four Bayesian spatiotemporal models, with different adjustments for other determinants of mortality, to directly estimate mortality and life expectancy loss due to current PM2.5 pollution and the benefits of reductions since 1999, nationally and by county. The covariates included in the adjusted models were per capita income; percentage of population whose family income is below the poverty threshold, who are of Black or African American race, who have graduated from high school, who live in urban areas, and who are unemployed; cumulative smoking; and mean temperature and relative humidity. In the main model, which adjusted for these covariates and for unobserved county characteristics through the use of county-specific random intercepts, PM2.5 pollution in excess of the lowest observed concentration (2.8 μg/m3) was responsible for an estimated 15,612 deaths (95% credible interval 13,248-17,945) in females and 14,757 deaths (12,617-16,919) in males. These deaths would lower national life expectancy by an estimated 0.15 years (0.13-0.17) for women and 0.13 years (0.11-0.15) for men. The life expectancy loss due to PM2.5 was largest around Los Angeles and in some southern states such as Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Alabama. At any PM2.5 concentration, life expectancy loss was, on average, larger in counties with lower income and higher poverty rate than in wealthier counties. Reductions in PM2.5 since 1999 have lowered mortality in all but 14 counties where PM2.5 increased slightly. The main limitation of our study, similar to other observational studies, is that it is not guaranteed for the observed associations to be causal. We did not have annual county-level data on other important determinants of mortality, such as healthcare access and quality and diet, but these factors were adjusted for with use of county-specific random intercepts.Conclusions: According to our estimates, recent reductions in particulate matter pollution in the USA have resulted in public health benefits. Nonetheless, we estimate that current concentrations are associated with mortality impacts and loss of life expectancy, with larger impacts in counties with lower income and higher poverty rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: In the United States, gonadectomy is common and widely promoted as a component of responsible pet ownership. The recent publication of several studies examining the effect of gonadectomy on future health has challenged long-held assumptions and recommendations for gonadectomy in companion animals. The purpose of this study was to characterize the associations between gonadectomy and two outcomes: overweight/obesity and orthopedic injuries, in a large prospective study of Golden Retrievers. Methods: Age at gonadectomy was divided into four categories: intact (reference), ≤ 6 months, > 6 months ‒ ≤ 12 months, and > 12 months. Dogs with a Purina Body Condition Score of 7 or greater were classified as overweight or obese. Orthopedic injuries considered were the first instance of veterinary-reported cranial cruciate ligament injury and clinically evident osteoarthritis. We performed survival analyses on a cohort of Golden Retrievers to estimate the associations of interest using proportional hazards. We adjusted for age at study enrollment, owner-reported activity level, and dog’s sex. Results: Compared to intact dogs, all gonadectomy age categories showed increased risk for the development of overweight/obesity. (≤ 6 months, HR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.36–2.40), p-value: <0.0001; 6 months to ≤ 12 months, HR: 2.21, 95% CI: 1.77–2.73, p-value: < 0.0001; > 12 months, HR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.24–1.96, p-value: 0.0001). Compared to intact dogs, dogs who were ≤ 6 months at gonadectomy had increased risk for orthopedic injury (HR: 4.06, 95% CI: 2.15–7.67, p-value: <0.00001). Discussion: This study presents prospectively acquired data demonstrating that gonadectomy is a risk factor for both overweight/obesity and chronic non-traumatic orthopedic injuries in a prospective cohort of Golden Retrievers. Our data suggest that gonadectomy at any age is a risk factor for overweight or obesity, but delaying gonadectomy until dogs are at least 6–12 months of age may help to decrease the risk for orthopedic injury. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Physician Orders for Life-Sustaining Treatment (POLST) programs have expanded rapidly, but evaluating their impact on hospital care is challenging. Objectives: To demonstrate how careful study design can reveal POLST’s impact at hospital admission and why analyses of state registry data are unlikely to capture POLST’s effects. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting and participants: Adult in-patients with Do Not Intubate and/or Do Not Resuscitate (DNR/I) orders in the electronic medical record at the time of discharge from Johns Hopkins Hospital over 18 months. For patients with unplanned readmissions within 30 days, records were reviewed to determine if a Maryland Medical Order for Life-Sustaining Treatment (MOLST) form was presented and for the time from readmission to a DNR/I order in the EMR. Analyses were stratified by whether patients could communicate or were accompanied by a proxy at readmission. Results: Among 1,507 patients with DNR/I orders at discharge, 124 (8%) had unplanned readmissions, 112 (90%) could communicate or were accompanied by a proxy at readmission, and 12 (10%) could not communicate and were unaccompanied. For patients who were unaccompanied and could not communicate, MOLST significantly decreased the median time from readmission to DNR/I order (1.2 vs 27.1 hours, P = .001), but this association was greatly attenuated among patients who could communicate or were accompanied by a proxy (16.4 vs 25.4 hours P = .10). Conclusion: Among patients who wanted to avoid intubation and/or CPR, MOLST forms were protective when the patient was unaccompanied by a healthcare proxy at admission and could not communicate. Fewer than 10% of patients met these criteria during unplanned readmissions, and state registry data does not allow this sub-population to be identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: College affirmative action programs seek to expand socioeconomic opportunities for underrepresented minorities. Between 1996 and 2013, 9 US states-including California, Texas, and Michigan-banned race-based affirmative action in college admissions. Because economic opportunity is known to motivate health behavior, banning affirmative action policies may have important adverse spillover effects on health risk behaviors. We used a quasi-experimental research design to evaluate the association between college affirmative action bans and health risk behaviors among underrepresented minority (Black, Hispanic, and Native American) adolescents.Methods and Findings: We conducted a difference-in-differences analysis using data from the 1991-2015 US national Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS). We compared changes in self-reported cigarette smoking and alcohol use in the 30 days prior to survey among underrepresented minority 11th and 12th graders in states implementing college affirmative action bans (Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Texas, and Washington) versus outcomes among those residing in states not implementing bans (n = 35 control states). We also assessed whether underrepresented minority adults surveyed in the 1992-2015 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) who were exposed to affirmative action bans during their late high school years continued to smoke cigarettes between the ages of 19 and 30 years. Models adjusted for individual demographic characteristics, state and year fixed effects, and state-specific secular trends. In the YRBS (n = 34,988 to 36,268, depending on the outcome), cigarette smoking in the past 30 days among underrepresented minority 11th-12th graders increased by 3.8 percentage points after exposure to an affirmative action ban (95% CI: 2.0, 5.7; p < 0.001). In addition, there were also apparent increases in past-30-day alcohol use, by 5.9 percentage points (95% CI: 0.3, 12.2; p = 0.041), and past-30-day binge drinking, by 3.5 percentage points (95% CI: -0.1, 7.2, p = 0.058), among underrepresented minority 11th-12th graders, though in both cases adjustment for multiple comparisons resulted in failure to reject the null hypothesis (adjusted p = 0.083 for both outcomes). Underrepresented minority adults in the TUS-CPS (n = 71,575) exposed to bans during their late high school years were also 1.8 percentage points more likely to report current smoking (95% CI: 0.1, 3.6; p = 0.037). Event study analyses revealed a discrete break for all health behaviors timed with policy discussion and implementation. No substantive or statistically significant effects were found for non-Hispanic White adolescents, and the findings were robust to a number of additional specification checks. The limitations of the study include the continued potential for residual confounding from unmeasured time-varying factors and the potential for recall bias due to the self-reported nature of the health risk behavior outcomes.Conclusions: In this study, we found evidence that some health risk behaviors increased among underrepresented minority adolescents after exposure to state-level college affirmative action bans. These findings suggest that social policies that shift socioeconomic opportunities could have meaningful population health consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As emerging and re-emerging infectious arboviruses like dengue, chikungunya, and Zika threaten new populations worldwide, officials scramble to assess local severity and transmissibility, with little to no epidemiological history to draw upon. Indirect estimates of risk from vector habitat suitability maps are prone to great uncertainty, while direct estimates from epidemiological data are only possible after cases accumulate and, given environmental constraints on arbovirus transmission, cannot be widely generalized beyond the focal region. Combining these complementary methods, we use disease importation and transmission data to improve the accuracy and precision of a priori ecological risk estimates. We demonstrate this approach by estimating the spatiotemporal risks of Zika virus transmission throughout Texas, a high-risk region in the southern United States. Our estimates are, on average, 80% lower than published ecological estimates—with only six of 254 Texas counties deemed capable of sustaining a Zika epidemic—and they are consistent with the number of autochthonous cases detected in 2017. Importantly our method provides a framework for model comparison, as our mechanistic understanding of arbovirus transmission continues to improve. Real-time updating of prior risk estimates as importations and outbreaks arise can thereby provide critical, early insight into local transmission risks as emerging arboviruses expand their global reach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since January 1, 2017, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has fully implemented the Veterinary Feed Directive (VFD) final rule aimed at facilitating the judicious use of medically important antimicrobials in food-producing animals. The objective of this study was to identify the common perceptions of Tennessee (TN) cattle producers regarding the VFD. We used a combination of focus groups and survey questionnaires to explore TN cattle producers’ perceptions regarding the VFD. Preliminary findings from seven focus groups of 62 producers were used in the development of the questionnaire sent both online and in-print to rest of cattle producers in TN. The beef focus group participants perceived the VFD: to be a top-down policy; to have led to unregulated access to in-feed antimicrobials; a regulation that has limited the producers’ ability to prevent disease and leading to economic losses; to negatively affect small producers; and to be affected by challenges related to prescription writing and disposal of un-used medicines. The dairy focus group participants perceived the VFD as unnecessary and burdensome, to have affected small producers, and introduced additional costs. Among the survey questionnaire respondents, 35 (15.4%) beef producers and 6 (13.6%) dairy producers respectively were not familiar at all with the VFD. Forty-eight (21.1%) beef producers and 11 (25%) dairy producers were slightly familiar with VFD. Gender was significantly associated (P = 0.02) with the beef producers’ belief in the usefulness of the VFD. Similarly, for dairy producers, herd size was significantly associated (P = 0.002) with their perceptions regarding the usefulness of the VFD. The findings of this study could inform future VFD policy review processes. More awareness regarding the VFD and its benefits is needed among both beef and dairy producers in TN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Reviews of violence against children in disaster settings focus on armed conflict. Little is understood about natural disasters which has implications in planning humanitarian response. We examined the magnitude and direction of the association between exposure to natural disasters and physical, emotional, and sexual violence against children, and assessed the quality of the evidence. Methods: We searched 15 health and social science databases from first record until May 16, 2018. Publications describing all types of quantitative study design were eligible for inclusion. We presented study characteristics and quality in a narrative form and generated pooled estimates using a three-level random effects model. We evaluated Cochrane’s Q with p-values below 0.10 and radial plots to assess heterogeneity. Planned subgroup analyses explored differential results by violence form, study design, and analysis method. Results: 11 publications met inclusion criteria. The majority were cross-sectional studies examining physical or sexual violence in the United States. We found no evidence of a consistent association or directional influence between natural disasters and violence against children. Combined categorical violence outcomes had substantial heterogeneity [Q (df = 66) = 252.83, p < 0.001]. Subgroups without evidence of heterogeneity had confidence intervals that included a possible null effect. Our findings were mainly limited by inconsistencies in operational definitions of violence, a lack of representative sampling, and unclear establishment of temporal order between natural disaster exposure and violence outcomes. Conclusions: Based on the available evidence, we cannot confidently conclude that natural disasters increase the level or severity of violence against children above non-disaster settings, however heterogeneity and study quality hamper our ability to draw firm conclusions. More nuanced and rigorous research is needed to inform practice and policy as natural disasters increasingly affect human populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commercial captive breeding and trade in body parts of threatened wild carnivores is an issue of significant concern to conservation scientists and policy-makers. Following a 2016 decision by Parties to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, South Africa must establish an annual export quota for lion skeletons from captive sources, such that threats to wild lions are mitigated. As input to the quota-setting process, South Africa’s Scientific Authority initiated interdisciplinary collaborative research on the captive lion industry and its potential links to wild lion conservation. A National Captive Lion Survey was conducted as one of the inputs to this research; the survey was launched in August 2017 and completed in May 2018. The structured semi-quantitative questionnaire elicited 117 usable responses, representing a substantial proportion of the industry. The survey results clearly illustrate the impact of a USA suspension on trophy imports from captive-bred South African lions, which affected 82% of respondents and economically destabilised the industry. Respondents are adapting in various ways, with many euthanizing lions and becoming increasingly reliant on income from skeleton export sales. With rising consumer demand for lion body parts, notably skulls, the export quota presents a further challenge to the industry, regulators and conservationists alike, with 52% of respondents indicating they would adapt by seeking ‘alternative markets’ for lion bones if the export quota allocation restricted their business. Recognizing that trade policy toward large carnivores represents a ‘wicked problem’, we anticipate that these results will inform future deliberations, which must nonetheless also be informed by challenging inclusive engagements with all relevant stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The maximum entropy model, a commonly used species distribution model (SDM) normally combines observations of the species occurrence with environmental information to predict the geographic distributions of animal or plant species. However, it only produces point estimates for the probability of species existence. To understand the uncertainty of the point estimates, we analytically derived the variance of the outputs of the maximum entropy model from the variance of the input. We applied the analytic method to obtain the standard deviation of dengue importation probability and Aedes aegypti suitability. Dengue occurrence data and Aedes aegypti mosquito abundance data, combined with demographic and environmental data, were applied to obtain point estimates and the corresponding variance. To address the issue of not having the true distributions for comparison, we compared and contrasted the performance of the analytical expression with the bootstrap method and Poisson point process model which proved of equivalence of maximum entropy model with the assumption of independent point locations. Both Dengue importation probability and Aedes aegypti mosquito suitability examples show that the methods generate comparatively the same results and the analytic method we introduced is dramatically faster than the bootstrap method and directly apply to maximum entropy model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both academic and popular literatures have repeatedly contended that emerging adults are the most narcissistic and entitled age-group in modern times. Although this contention is fiercely debated, the message that emerging adults are narcissistic and entitled has saturated popular culture. Despite this saturation, relatively little empirical work has examined how emerging adults might react to such labels. Across three studies in five samples in the U.S., the present work sought to address this deficit in research. Results from cross-sectional samples of university students at two universities, as well as an online convenience sample of web-using adults (Study 1), indicated that emerging adults believe their age-group and the one following them (e.g., adolescents) to be the most narcissistic and entitled age-groups, that they have generally negative opinions of narcissism and entitlement, and that they respond negatively to being labeled as narcissistic and entitled. Additionally, results from adult web-users revealed that, while all age groups tend to view adolescents and emerging adults as more narcissistic and entitled than older age-groups, these opinions are more exaggerated among members of older age-groups. Finally, across two experimental studies (Studies 2 & 3), results indicated that emerging adults react negatively to labeling of their age-group as narcissistic and entitled, but no more negatively than they do to potentially related undesirable labels (e.g., oversensitive). Collectively, these results indicate that emerging adults are aware of and somewhat distressed by messaging that casts their age-group as the most narcissistic and entitled age-group ever. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Health literacy (HL) skills are essential to enable self-management and shared decision-making in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Limited HL in these patients is associated with poorer outcomes. It is not clear what the burden of limited HL in patients with T2DM across countries and what factors influence it. Methods: A systematic review was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42017056150). We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL and ERIC for articles published up to January 2017. Articles that measured HL levels in adult patients with T2DM; that used validated HL tools; and that were reported in English were included. Two reviewers assessed studies for eligibility and quality, and extracted the data. Prevalence of limited HL is calculated from the number of patients with less than adequate HL over the total number of patients with T2DM in the study. Meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis were conducted using the Open Meta-analyst software. Results: Twenty-nine studies involving 13,457 patients with T2DM from seven countries were included. In total, seven different HL measurement tools were used. The prevalence of limited HL ranged from 7.3% to 82%, lowest in Switzerland and the highest in Taiwan. Meta-regression analysis of all included studies showed the country of study (p<0.001), HL tool used (p = 0.002), and the country’s region (p<0.001) contributed to the variation findings. Thirteen studies in the USA measured functional HL. The pooled prevalence of inadequate functional HL among patients with T2DM in the USA was 28.9% (95% CI: 20.4–37.3), with high heterogeneity (I2 = 97.9%, p <0.001). Studies were done in the community as opposed to a hospital or primary care (p = 0.005) and populations with education level lower than high school education (p = 0.009) reported a higher prevalence of limited HL. Conclusion: The prevalence of limited HL in patients with T2DM varied widely between countries, HL tools used and the country’s region. Pooled prevalence showed nearly one in three patients with T2DM in the USA had limited functional HL. Interactions with healthcare providers and educational attainment were associated with reported of prevalence in the USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sickle cell disease (SCD) is an inherited blood disorder associated with acute pain crisis and other complications that lead to frequent emergency department (ED) visits. To improve outcomes, the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) published recommendations for management of acute pain crisis. NHLBI also funded eight centers across the United States to participate in the Sickle Cell Disease Implementation Consortium. This six-year effort consists of two phases. Phase one involved conducting needs assessments of barriers and facilitators to SCD care. The aim of this study was to describe challenges and facilitators to caring for SCD from the perspective of ED providers in central North Carolina (NC). Methods and findings: We conducted a needs assessment survey with ED providers throughout NC. We also conducted focus groups and an interview with ED providers from three healthcare facilities in central NC. One hundred and eleven surveys (60.6% physicians, 26% registered nurses, 13.5% physician assistants) were completed and 13 providers participated in 3 focus groups and 1 interview. Slightly more than half (50. 4%) utilized individualized dosing protocols to treat sickle cell pain. Only 32.4% of the providers were aware of the NHLBI SCD recommendations. Barriers to care from the survey included: patient behavior (67.57%), the opioid epidemic (67.57%), overcrowding (64.86%), and concern about addiction (49.55%). Perceived barriers to care identified in the focus groups and interview included: high patient volumes, lack of SCD care protocols, poor communication among providers and stigma. Facilitators to care included: individualized pain plans, comfort prescribing opioids and electronic medical records. Conclusion: SCD care is influenced by many factors. Our results illuminate the need for increased use of the NHLBI SCD recommendations, individualized pain protocols, and use of electronic medical records and other care-interventions, specifically geared towards improving provider knowledge and mitigating provider bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing body of literature suggests that post-secondary students experience food insecurity (FI) at greater rates than the general population. However, these rates vary dramatically across institutions and studies. FI assessment methods commonly used in studies with college students have not been scrutinized for psychometric properties, and varying protocols may influence resulting FI prevalence estimates. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of standard food security assessment protocols and to evaluate their agreement as well as the relative accuracy of these protocols in identifying student FI. A randomized sample of 4,000 undergraduate students were invited to participate in an online survey (Qualtrics, LLC, Provo, Utah, USA) that evaluated sociodemographic characteristics and FI with the 2-item food sufficiency screener and the 10-item USDA Adult Food Security Survey Module (FSSM; containing the abbreviated 6-item module). Four hundred sixty-two eligible responses were included in the final sample. The psychometric analysis revealed inconsistencies in college student response patterns on the FSSM when compared to national evaluations. Agreement between FI protocols was generally high (>90%) but was lessened when compared with a protocol that incorporated the 2-item screener. The 10-item FSSM with the 2-item screener had the best model fit (McFadden's R2 = 0.15 and Bayesian Information Criterion = -2049.72) and emerged as the tool providing the greatest relative accuracy for identifying students with FI. Though the 10-item FSSM and 2-item screener yields the most accuracy in this sample, it is unknown why students respond to FSSM items differently than the general population. Further qualitative and quantitative evaluations are needed to determine which assessment protocol is the most valid and reliable for use in accurately identifying FI in post-secondary students across the U.S. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Infections caused by extended-spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBL) producing Gram-negative bacteria has emerge as a global threat in clinical practices. The treat is more serious in developing countries due to inappropriate use, poor adherence, use of counterfeit, sub-standard antibiotics and poor infection control practices. Data on ESBL producing Gram-negative bacteria are limited in developing countries including Ethiopia. The aim of this study was therefore, to describe the burden of ESBL producing Gram negative pathogens isolated from patients attending at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Bahir Dar, Amhara region. Materials and methods: A total of 532 clinical samples of blood, urine, stool, wound, abscess, ear discharge, nasal discharge, cervical discharge and body fluid specimens were aseptically collected and bacteriologically processed. Identification of the bacterial species was performed using an automated system (Vitek-2 Compact 27530, USA) and antibiotic susceptibility test was determined by disk diffusion method and selection of antibiotics were in accordance with CLSI guidelines. The MDR pattern of the Gram-negative pathogens was assessed using phenotypic methods of ESBL and carbapenemase production following standard procedure. Result: A total of 532 samples were processed and 263 pathogens were isolated. Of these, 185 (70.3%) were Gram-negative and 78 (29.7%) Gram-positive. Of the Gram-negative bacteria the high proportion of the isolates were identified from blood 146/185 (78.9%) and 29/185 (15.7%) were from urine cultures. The most common isolate in all clinical samples was Klebsiella pneumoniae 97/185 (52.4%) followed by Escherichia coli 23/185 (12.4%), Acinetobacter baumannii 15/185 (17.6%) and Enterobacter aerogenes 12/185(6.5%). Of the total Gram negatives, the prevalence of MDR was 148/185 (80.0%). Of the MDR isolates the prevalence of ESBL producers were, 127/148 (85.8%) and 24/148 (16.2%) were carbapenemase producers. Conclusion and recommendation: Prevalence of MDR and ESBL producing Gram-negative pathogens in this hospital is alarmingly high. Therefore, continuous monitoring of the problem with effective infection prevention and careful selection of empirical therapy are warranted in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To systematically review the literature on women’s experiences traveling for abortion and assess how this concept has been explored and operationalized, with a focus on travel distance, cost, delays, and other barriers to receiving services. Background: Increasing limitations on abortion providers and access to care have increased the necessity of travel for abortion services around the world. No systematic examination of women’s experiences traveling for abortion has been conducted; this mixed-methods review provides a summary of the qualitative and quantitative literature on this topic. Methods: A systematic search was conducted using PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Popline, and Google Scholar in July 2016 and updated in March 2017 (PROSPERO registration # CRD42016046007). We included original research studies that described women’s experiences traveling for abortion. Two reviewers independently performed article screening, data extraction and determination of final inclusion for analysis. Critical appraisal was conducted using CASP, STROBE, and MMAT checklists. Results: We included 59 publications: 46 quantitative studies, 12 qualitative studies, and 1 mixed-methods study. Most studies were published in the last five years, relied on data from the US, and discussed travel as a secondary outcome of interest. In quantitative studies, travel was primarily conceptualized and measured as road or straight-line distance to abortion provider, though some studies also incorporated measures of burdens related to travel, such as financial cost, childcare needs, and unwanted disclosure of their abortion status to others. Qualitative studies explored regional disparities in access to abortion care, with a focus on the burdens related to travel, the impact of travel on abortion method choice, and women’s reasons for travel. Studies generally were of high quality, though many studies lacked information on participant recruitment or consideration of potential biases. Conclusions: Standardized measurements of travel, including burdens associated with travel and more nuanced considerations of travel costs, should be implemented in order to facilitate comparison across studies. More research is needed to explore and accurately capture different dimensions of the burden of travel for abortion services on women’s lives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Racial/ethnic disparities in rates of influenza vaccinations in the US remain an issue even among those with access, no out-of-pocket costs, and after adjusting for confounders. We used an approach called the Oaxaca-Blinder (OB) decomposition method to ascertain the contribution of covariates individually and in aggregate to the racial disparity in influenza vaccination. Methods: We included members > = 18 years of age as of 05/01/2014 with continuous enrollment through 04/30/2015. Influenza vaccination was defined by diagnosis, procedure, or medication codes, or documentation in the immunization table. Characteristics were reported by race. Logistic regression models estimated the odds of vaccination associated with: (1) race; and (2) covariates stratified by race. The Oaxaca-Blinder (OB) method calculated the contribution of covariates to the difference or disparity in vaccination between Blacks and Whites. Results: We found that among adults, 44% were vaccinated; 55% were Black; and 45% were White. Black members have 42% lower odds of vaccination than White members. The contribution of the differences in the average value of the study covariates between Black and White members (the OB covariate effect) accounted for 29% of the racial disparity. The contributions to the total White-Black disparity in vaccination included: age (16%), neighborhood median income (11%), and registration on the online patient portal (13%). The contribution of the differences in how the covariates impact vaccination (OB coefficient effect) accounted for 71% of the disparity in vaccination between Blacks and Whites. Conclusion: In conclusion, equalizing average covariate values in Blacks and Whites could reduce the racial disparity in influenza vaccination by 29%. For health system vaccine campaigns, improving registration on the patient portal may be a target component of an effective system-level strategy to reduce racial disparities in vaccination. Additional information on patient-centered factors could further improve the value of the OB approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Migration of physicians has been a cause for global concern. In China, reforms of the higher education and healthcare systems have led to a shortage of postgraduate training positions relative to the number of medical graduates. Medical graduates opt for non-clinical roles or move abroad to pursue further training and practice opportunities. The impact of this physician migration is not known. This study quantifies where Chinese migrant physicians to the U.S. were educated, where they went to practice, and how these trends have changed over time. Methods: We combined data on physician characteristics from the 2008 and 2017 American Medical Association Physician Masterfiles with demographic information from the Educational Commission for Foreign Medical Graduates. Using a repeated cross-sectional approach, we reviewed the available data, including citizenship at entry to medical school, medical school attended, practice specialty, and practice location. Results: The number of Chinese-educated physicians (CEPs) to the United States (US) has increased over the past 10 years, from 3,878 in 2008 to 5,355 in 2017 (+38.1%). The majority held Chinese citizenship at entry to medical school (98.4% vs 97.1%) with the remainder being citizens of other East Asian nations. Of the Chinese citizens identified in 2008, 913 (19.3%) attended medical school outside of China; in 2017, 376 (6.7%) attended medical school outside of China, representing a decrease of 58.8%. Overall, in 2017, four Chinese medical schools provided 32.1% of all Chinese-educated physicians in the US. Over 50% of the CEPs were practicing in Internal Medicine, Anatomic/ Clinical Pathology, Anesthesiology, Family Medicine or Neurology. Compared with all IMGs, CEPs are more likely to be Anatomic/ Clinical Pathologists and Anesthesiologists. CEPs were concentrated in several states, including New York, California and Massachusetts. In 2017, a lower proportion of CEPs in the US healthcare workforce were in residency training, compared to 2008 (13.2% vs 22.8%). Conclusions: Unlike trends from some other South Asian countries, the number of CEPs in the US has increased over the past 10 years. Migration trends may vary depending on citizenship and country of medical school training. The majority of Chinese-educated graduates come to the US from relatively few medical schools. Fewer CEPs currently in residency training might indicate lower success rates in securing GME training in the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between mother’s socioeconomic disadvantage and blood concentrations of inflammation-related proteins among extremely preterm newborns (<28 weeks gestation), a group at heightened risk of cognitive impairment when exposed to systemic inflammation. We measured the concentrations of 27 inflammatory and neurotrophic proteins in blood specimens collected a week apart during the first postnatal month from 857 extremely preterm newborns in the United States. We classified children according to 3 indicators/correlates of socioeconomic disadvantage, mother’s eligibility for government-provided medical care insurance (Medicaid), mother’s formal education level, and mother’s IQ approximated with the Kaufman Brief Intelligence Test– 2. The risks of a top-quartile concentration of each protein on each of 5 days a week apart, on two occasions during the first two postnatal weeks, and during the next two weeks were modeled as functions of each indicator of socioeconomic disadvantage. The risks of top quartile concentrations of multiple (2–5) inflammation-related proteins on multiple days during the first two weeks were increased for each of the 3 indicators of socioeconomic disadvantage, while the risks of top quartile concentrations of selected neurotrophic proteins were reduced. Adjustment for socioeconomic disadvantage did not alter the relationships between protein concentrations and both low IQ and low working memory 10 years later. Among extremely preterm newborns, indicators of socioeconomic disadvantage are associated with modestly increased risk of systemic inflammation in postnatal blood during the first postnatal month and with a slightly reduced risk of a neurotrophic signal, but do not confound relationships between protein concentrations and outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazilians are a rapidly increasing Latino immigrant group in the United States (US), yet little research has examined factors influencing physical activity (PA) levels and behaviors of children growing up in Brazilian immigrant families. This information is needed to develop culturally sensitive interventions tailored to this population. Therefore, this qualitative study explored PA parenting practices used by Brazilian immigrant mothers living in the US. Thirty-seven Brazilian immigrant mothers with at least one child between the ages of 2 and 5 years participated in 1of 7 focus group discussions. Thematic analysis identified seven parenting practices that mothers employ that may encourage or facilitate physical activity their preschool-aged children's PA including: 1) modeling PA; 2) engaging and being physically active with child; 3) providing logistic support; 4) encouraging, praising, and offering motivational support; 5) watching, supervising, and teaching children how to engage in PA; 6) monitoring and setting limits to child's screen time; and 7) prompting child to be physically active. In addition, analysis identified four parenting practices that may discourage or inhibit children's PA including: 1) modeling of sedentary behaviors; 2) having rules and restrictions due to safety- and weather-related concerns; 3) limiting child's outdoor time due to parental time constraints; and 4) restricting child's outdoor and play time as punishment. Furthermore, analyses demonstrated that social contextual factors (e.g., income, housing, neighborhood safety, etc.) influence mothers' PA parenting practices and consequently, their children's PA. This is the first qualitative study, to our knowledge, to explore PA parenting practices of Brazilian-born immigrant mothers living in the US. Future research should further explore PA parenting practices of Brazilian immigrant parents including quantifying PA parenting practices that encourage and discourage PA, as well as examining the influence of fathers' PA parenting practices on young children's PA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: U.S. health care personnel (HCP) have reported that some respiratory protective devices (RPD) commonly used in health care have suboptimal tolerability. Between 2012 and 2016, the U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, and the Veterans Health Administration collaborated with two respirator manufacturers, Company A and B, to bring new RPD with improved tolerability to the U.S. health care marketplace. The purpose of this study was to compare the tolerability of four new prototype RPD to two models commonly used in U.S. health care delivery. Methods: A randomized, simulated workplace study was conducted to compare self-reported tolerability of four new prototype RPD (A1, A2, B1, and B2) worn by HCP and two N95 control respirators commonly used in U.S. health care delivery, the 1870 and 1860, manufactured by 3M Corporation. A new survey tool, the Respirator Comfort, Wearing Experience, and Function Instrument (R-COMFI), developed previously in part for the current study, was used as the primary outcome metric. With a maximum total score of 47, lower R-COMFI scores reflected better self-reported tolerability. Poisson regression analyses were used to estimate prototype relative risks compared to controls. Results: Conducted between 2014 and 2015 in two inpatient care rooms at the North Florida/South Georgia Veterans Health System, among 383 participants who enrolled, 335 (87.5%) completed the study. Mean total R-COMFI scores for the 3M 1870, 3M 1860, and prototypes A1, A2, B1, and B2 were 8.26, 9.36, 5.79, 7.70, 6.09, and 5.71, respectively. Compared to the 3M 1870, total R-COMFI unadjusted relative risks (RR) and 95 percent confidence intervals (CI) were A1 (RR 0.70, CI 0.60, 0.82), A2 (RR 0.93, CI 0.82, 1.06), B1 (RR 0.74, CI 0.64, 0.85), and B2 (RR 0.69, CI 0.60, 0.80). Compared to the 3M 1860, prototype total R-COMFI unadjusted RR and 95 percent CI were A1 (RR 0.62, CI 0.53, 0.72), A2 (RR 0.82, CI 0.73, 0.93), B1 (RR 0.65, CI 0.57, 0.74), and B2 (RR 0.61, CI 0.53, 0.70). Similarly, models adjusted for demographic characteristics showed that prototypes A1, B1, and B2 significantly improved tolerability scores compared to both controls, while prototype A2 was significantly improved compared to the 3M 1860. Conclusions: Compared to the 3M 1870 and 3M 1860, two RPDs commonly used in U.S. health care delivery, tolerability improved for three of four newly developed prototypes in this simulated workplace study. The R-COMFI tool, used in this study to assess tolerability, should be useful for future comparative studies of RPD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of rescuing early-career scientists often take narrow approaches and focus on PhD students or postdoc populations. In a multi-method systems approach, we examine the inter-relations between the two ends of the pipeline and ask: what are the effects of late retirement on aging and hiring in academia? With a simulation model, we postulate that the decline in the retirement rate in academia contributes to the aging pattern through two mechanisms: (a) direct effect: longer stay of established professors, and (b) indirect effect: a hiring decline in tenure-track positions. Late retirement explains more than half of the growth in average age and brings about 20% decline in hiring. We provide empirical evidence based on the natural experimental set-up of the removal of mandatory retirement in the 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concerns about genetic privacy affect individuals’ willingness to accept genetic testing in clinical care and to participate in genomics research. To learn what is already known about these views, we conducted a systematic review, which ultimately analyzed 53 studies involving the perspectives of 47,974 participants on real or hypothetical privacy issues related to human genetic data. Bibliographic databases included MEDLINE, Web of Knowledge, and Sociological Abstracts. Three investigators independently screened studies against predetermined criteria and assessed risk of bias. The picture of genetic privacy that emerges from this systematic literature review is complex and riddled with gaps. When asked specifically “are you worried about genetic privacy,” the general public, patients, and professionals frequently said yes. In many cases, however, that question was posed poorly or only in the most general terms. While many participants expressed concern that genomic and medical information would be revealed to others, respondents frequently seemed to conflate privacy, confidentiality, control, and security. People varied widely in how much control they wanted over the use of data. They were more concerned about use by employers, insurers, and the government than they were about researchers and commercial entities. In addition, people are often willing to give up some privacy to obtain other goods. Importantly, little attention was paid to understanding the factors–sociocultural, relational, and media—that influence people’s opinions and decisions. Future investigations should explore in greater depth which concerns about genetic privacy are most salient to people and the social forces and contexts that influence those perceptions. It is also critical to identify the social practices that will make the collection and use of these data more trustworthy for participants as well as to identify the circumstances that lead people to set aside worries and decide to participate in research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Breweries across the country are investing in energy efficient and low-carbon brewing practices. Drawing insights from the sustainable consumption and ecological economics literature, this analysis evaluates whether consumers are willing to pay more for sustainable beer and what predicts the value of the premium. Based on a survey of beer consumers from across the U.S. that contained one of two willingness-to-pay exercises, we evaluate what respondent attributes are associated with a higher willingness-to-pay for sustainably brewed beer. We find that the majority of beer consumers are willing to pay more for sustainable beer. Consumers who are prepared to pay a premium tend to already pay more per unit of beer, are more aware of their purchasing behavior and the manner in which their consumption patterns may affect the environment, and pursue lifestyles based on professional advancement, helping the environment, and helping other causes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]