Search

Background: The mortality pattern from birth to age five is known to vary by underlying cause of mortality, which has been documented in multiple instances. Many countries without high functioning vital registration systems could benefit from estimates of age- and cause-specific mortality to inform health programming, however, to date the causes of under-five death have only been described for broad age categories such as for neonates (0–27 days), infants (0–11 months), and children age 12–59 months. Methods: We adapt the log quadratic model to mortality patterns for children under five to all-cause child mortality and then to age- and cause-specific mortality (U5ACSM). We apply these methods to empirical sample registration system mortality data in China from 1996 to 2015. Based on these empirical data, we simulate probabilities of mortality in the case when the true relationships between age and mortality by cause are known. Results: We estimate U5ACSM within 0.1–0.7 deaths per 1000 livebirths in hold out strata for life tables constructed from the China sample registration system, representing considerable improvement compared to an error of 1.2 per 1000 livebirths using a standard approach. This improved prediction error for U5ACSM is consistently demonstrated for all-cause as well as pneumonia- and injury-specific mortality. We also consistently identified cause-specific mortality patterns in simulated mortality scenarios. Conclusion: The log quadratic model is a significant improvement over the standard approach for deriving U5ACSM based on both simulation and empirical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Since 2009, the Chinese government has been reforming the healthcare system and has committed to reinforcing increased use of primary care. To date, however, the Chinese healthcare system is still heavily reliant on hospital-based specialty care. Studies consistently show an association between primary care and improved health outcomes, and the same association is also found among the disadvantaged population. Due to the "hukou" system, interprovincial migrants in the urban districts are put in a weak position and become the disadvantaged. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate whether greater supply and utilization of primary care was associated with reduced child mortality among the entire population and the interprovincial migrants in urban districts of Guangdong province, China.Methods: An ecological study was conducted using a 3-year panel data with repeated measurements within urban districts in Guangdong province from 2014 to 2016, with 178 observations in total. Multilevel linear mixed effects models were applied to explore the associations.Results: Higher visit proportion to primary care was associated with reductions in the infant mortality rate and the under-five mortality rate in both the entire population and the interprovincial migrants (p < 0.05) in the full models. The association between visit proportion to primary care and reduced neonatal mortality rate was significant among the entire population (p < 0.05) while it was insignificant among the interprovincial migrants (p > 0.05).Conclusions: Our ecological study based in urban districts of Guangdong province found consistent associations between higher visit proportion to primary care and improvements in child health among the entire population and the interprovincial migrants, suggesting that China should continue to strengthen and develop the primary care system. The findings from China adds to the previously reported evidence on the association between primary care and improved health, especially that of the disadvantaged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]