Search

Hindsight bias (HB) is the tendency to retrospectively exaggerate one's foresight knowledge about the outcome of an event. Cognitive processes influenced by newly obtained outcome information are used to explain the HB phenomenon, but the neural correlates remain unknown. This study investigated HB in the context of election results using a memory design and functional magnetic resonance imaging for the first time. Participants were asked to predict and recall the percentage of votes obtained by (pairs of) candidates before and after an election. The results revealed that 88% of participants showed HB by recalling that their predictions were closer to the actual outcomes than they really were; and participants had HB for 38% of the events. The HB effect was associated with activation in the medial superior frontal gyrus and bilateral inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), which have been implicated in updating an old belief due to new information and is similar to the process of reconstruction bias. Furthermore, participants with a greater HB effect showed greater activation of the left IFG. In conclusion, we successfully observed the HB phenomenon in election results, and our imaging results suggested that the HB phenomenon might involve reconstruction bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A numeral classifier is required between a numeral and a noun in Chinese, which comes in two varieties, sortal classifier (C) and mensural classifier (M). A recent linguistic theory suggests that C/Ms carry quantity information, where C and M converge as the multiplicand, with numeral as the multiplier, but C and M diverge in the mathematical values they denote. However, previous empirical studies were sparse and presented inconsistent results. This study aimed to investigate the mathematical function of C/Ms using the number-size task in which participants had to choose from two C/M phrases the one that represents a larger quantity or in a larger font size. If C/M phrases engage quantity processing like numbers, distance and congruity effects should emerge. As expected, participants performed more accurately and faster at comparing two distant stimuli than two proximate ones, indicating that the mathematical values of C/M were represented like a mental number line. Moreover, participants' performance was partially influenced by the irrelevant information from the other dimension, suggesting that the mathematical values of C/Ms and the physical font size interfere with each other. These results corroborated that C/Ms play a role in magnitude cognition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]