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BACKGROUND For the last 70 years the concept of the demographic transition has provided a basis for understanding and predicting population trends in the developing world. However, a majority of the developing world's population will soon be post-transitional -- what will happen then? This paper attempts to outline where answers to this question might be found. It suggests that a valuable way to organise the study of these issues is the concept of the demographic regime. OBJECTIVE The aim of the paper is to encourage discussion on the nature of post-transitional demographic regimes around the world, especially in the developing world. The style of the reflection is that of a speculative essay -- a Denkstűck or ballon d'essai. SCOPE In addition to a discussion of the concept of a demographic regime, the paper looks at three possible sources of information on the determinants of post-transitional regimes in the developing world: 1) the nature of the transition itself, 2) lessons drawn from pre-transitional regimes, and 3) demographic trends in Europe and other developed countries, some which have been post-transitional for several decades. CONCLUSIONS The paper concludes with a set of suggestions for future research on the topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the population transition model for Vietnam, based on Grover's five stages of population transition. Compatible with the transitional model of Western Europe and other advanced Asian countries, this process in Vietnam has some significant differences: (a) the initial shift or transition of fertility of the population in Vietnam is later than in Asian countries by about 13 years while compared to Europe it is nearly 108 years later; and (b) while the period of initial transition of mortality in Vietnam may not be very different from other Asian countries, it is more than 100 years later than in European countries, especially those in Western Europe. One of the main factors influencing the late transition of Vietnam's population process is, of course, colonialism and the consecutive wars (1945–1954 and 1955–1975). After 1975, Vietnam's population was stable as industrialisation and urbanisation led to the development of health services, education and an urban lifestyle, as well as effective population policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contemporary cities in East Central Europe (ECE) represent a hybrid type of urban development which is still generally considered to be a special case and is only exceptionally referred to in the recently intensified debate over the European city. Our paper argues that such exclusion is short-sighted because ECE cities face structural problems similar to those of their Western pendants. Therefore, the contextual frame of urban research needs to be widened and can no longer be restricted to post-socialist transition. In this regard, one of the main challenges for future urban development will be the consequences of demographic change. Ageing, new patterns of fertility behaviour and more diversified household structures in line with the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) will have significant implications for urban structures and housing markets, as already known for Western Europe. The purpose of this paper is to work out new questions and hypotheses for future urban research with special respect to Polish and Czech cities. Besides West European experience, recent developments in eastern Germany are taken as a frame of reference, assuming that this specific transition case may, in many respects, be regarded as a forerunner for similar developments in its neighbouring countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces the Special Issue of four empirical studies on the provision of family support to older people that have been written members of the Family Support for Older People: Determinants and Consequences (FAMSUP) network. They have in common the use of individual-level data and recognition of the importance of demographic forces, cultural variations and public policy in shaping patterns of elder care. The four papers are also explicitly comparative, and emphasise both between- and within-country differences. The European countries examined by the FAMSUP researchers exhibit several broadly similar demographic trends, but these are superimposed on very different policy regimes. The ‘macro’ focus of much comparative policy-oriented research facilitates the identification and description of population ageing, while illuminating the policy issues raised by demographic change. A macro-focus is also characteristic of much comparative welfare-state analysis. The ‘micro’ orientation of the research presented in this collection typically treats the policy environment as an implicit or residual category. We argue that progress in understanding comparative patterns of elder care, and in developing policy responses to demographic change, will be facilitated through blending the macro and micro perspectives, in which variations in the policy environment are explicitly linked to individual- and family-level behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to model the link between political participation and life satisfaction whilst correcting for the endogenous nature of the relationship; explore the impact of different strengths of political participation and aim to uncover if the relationship displays different patterns by gender. Design/methodology/approach - The data originate from the 2006/2007 European Social Survey. The analysis spanned across a pooled data set for 20 European countries. Three alternative empirical frameworks were trialled: an ordered probit regression, a linear regression model and a two-step, simultaneous treatment effect model to address endogeneity concerns. Findings - Following the correction for endogeneity via two-step, simultaneous treatment regressions, political participation - and specifically strong political engagement - displays a robust, statistically significant, strong and positive impact on life satisfaction. It was deduced that actual political participation, and not merely the right to participate in the political process, is a source of procedural utility. Research limitations/implications - The cross-sectional nature of the data imposes design limitations to examining trends and changes over time. It follows that the analysis cannot rely on fixed-effect estimations to control for time-invariant factors. Originality/value - Once the results are corrected for endogeneity, the empirical results reveal that the effect of actual political participation on life satisfaction not only matters, but also as the strength of political engagement grows it matters even more. Findings hold true even when a multitude of socio-demographic characteristics are controlled for. These are important results for researchers and policy makers who are concerned about the happiness of people in democratic societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper generates insights about the effect of life expectancy on population growth, the demographic effects of international migration on populations, the role of the demographic transition, and the causal role of life expectancy on income growth. I am specifically interested in how previous research investigated the potential contribution of population aging to the basis of political power in society, the spatial dynamics of China's demographic transition, the relationship between demographic transition and economic status, and the demographic consequences of migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 1920 and 1940, fertility dropped below replacement level in many Western countries. In today's scholarly literature, the drop is usually explained as a temporary reaction to the exceptional conditions of the inter-war period. This paper confronts that interpretation with the interpretations offered by scholars writing between the wars. According to leading demographers of the time, low fertility was due not to war or economic crisis, but rather to processes that now tend to be associated with the Second Demographic Transition, including secularization, individualization, rising consumerism, and women's emancipation. Since these were seen as structural features of modernization, most inter-war scholars argued that subreplacement fertility would remain an obstinate feature of modern society for an extended period of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European countries differ considerably in their marriage patterns. The study presented in this paper describes these differences for the 1990s and attempts to explain them from a macro-level perspective. We find that different indicators of marriage (i.e., marriage rate, age at marriage, divorce rate, and prevalence of unmarried cohabitation) cannot be seen as indicators of an underlying concept such as the 'strength of marriage'. Multivariate ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analyses are estimated with countries as units and panel regression models are estimated in which annual time series for multiple countries are pooled. Using these models, we find that popular explanations of trends in the indicators - explanations that focus on gender roles, secularization, unemployment, and educational expansion - are also important for understanding differences among countries. We also find evidence for the role of historical continuity and societal disintegration in understanding cross-national differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many scholars have argued that deliberate birth spacing may have played a role before and during the modern fertility transition. There are good historical and theoretical reasons for this view, but it has proved to be hard to demonstrate convincingly that birth intervals were in fact partly determined by attempts at deliberate fertility control. This paper suggests a method of securing evidence on the issue for married couples. The method is applied to three cohorts living in a Belgian town in the nineteenth century. The findings indicate that, even before the fertility transition, couples in the working class were controlling their fertility by deliberate spacing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a theory for regional integration based on structural conditions. By applying power transition theory, we are able to account for and anticipate not only the tendency for pairs of countries to participate in integration, but the likely intensity of such integration as well. We find that integration is most likely when there is an asymmetric distribution of power between countries and when they are jointly satisfied after a power transition has occurred. These results hold even after controlling for level of development and trade flows. We test this theory on all politically relevant dyads between 1950 and 1996 using a novel method to measure the level of regional integration. We illustrate the empirical findings through simulations that track the developments leading to Europe's Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the past 15 years spectacular changes in demographic behaviour have occurred in parts of east and south-east Asia. In this paper these changes are examined and contrasted with those that have taken place in parts of Europe at the corresponding period. Although it was to be expected that the Asian transitions would have been much shorter than in Europe. it is surprising that the transition in Asian countries has in many respects caught up with and even overtaken that in the European countries where it occurred much earlier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Universal processes related to the demographic transition to structural low fertility on the one hand, and economic geographic processes of concentration and urbanization on the other lead to regional population decline in most European countries. Due to this universal nature of the underlying processes policies aimed at dealing with them share substantial similarities. At the same time, the regional context is very important as well. This paper aims to give more insight into and reflections on policies dealing with population decline in three European regions: Northeast Scotland, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, and Brandenburg. Each region has experienced population decline, but in different regional and national contexts. Policy responses between the regions differed. Each of the regions has experienced some form of structural change that was triggered by external developments. Demography has reacted to these changes primarily through migration. Moreover, there are strong internal differences in growth and decline within these regions. One of the main conclusions is that the role of national policies has been substantial. The more successful regional policies were supported strongly by national policies. Moreover, policies have primarily affected liveability in the regions, but not population decline as such. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increase in illegitimacy ratios happened all over Europe in the middle of the 17th century and kept on, at least until 1850. A decrease followed up to the 1960s, when a "second demographic transition" appeared. In previous studies, the author suggested that non egalitarian family transmission systems could explain why some European regions, together with a high age at first marriage, used to present particularly high rate of illegitimacy in the past, when non-inheriting young people, males and females were often employed in domestic service and faced impediments or delays to establish an independent household and get married. Further in this line, taking account of family systems and socio-demographic and economic changes, the paper strongly suggests that the long trend in European illegitimacy figures should be considered in connection with a parallel dropping tendency in the frequency of domestic service: the innovating argument that the post-1850 decline in illegitimacy should be considered as linked to the declining attraction of traditional European models of domestic service brings a kind of missing key to a 40 year-old problem (Shorter, Knodel and Van de Walle 1971). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I argue that living with no or few children and low fertility was widespread in pre-industrial societies. After a critical discussion of demographic transition theory and the concept of "natural fertility", I investigate fertility in early modern Europe. In doing so, I follow the suggestion of "cultural demography" and combine quantitative and qualitative research. I show a great extent and many variations of deliberate birth control before the "fertility decline" took place. This finding should help to see the actual level of fertility as less exceptional and dramatic than it is often claimed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European continent has been for-runner in the demographic transition process. Age-specific fertility patterns had changed tremendously during this process in Europe. However, it is still mainly concentrated in the female age group 20 - 34 years. Women and couples tend to limit fertility in marginal age groups of female's reproductive period. In this paper the author addresses late age-specific fertility trends in selected European countries. Age -- specific fertility is relatively low after the age of 35 in modern demographic regime. These rates show very low fertility in the age group 40 - 44 years and only exceptional childbearing in the age group 45 - 49 years. In contrast, the age group 35 - 39 years is not only dynamic but also still important for the procreation. In general, total late fertility was higher in 1960 than in 2003 in majority of European countries. Further increase in total late fertility in most of Europe is likely, Eastern Europe included. However, late age -- specific fertility will very likely retain more or less marginal share of total fertility in modern demographic regime. Late age -- specific abortion will considerably contribute to this result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of the paper is to examine the future of populations within the Council of Europe member states, identify the main trends and discuss their policy implications. The analysis focuses on the impact that future demographic trends will have on the following social domains: education, the labour market, health care and care of the elderly and social protection. The study aims to be policy-oriented and to provide an overview of future demographic trends for 2005-2050 in the Council of Europe member states, as well as presenting an analysis related to selected policies and an interpretation of these trends. The analysis of population dynamics in the coming 45 years is based on the United Nations population projection of 2005. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of fertility trends along urban gradients contributes to assess socio‐demographic change at larger scales and the new geography of metropolitan growth at smaller scales. At larger scales, urban fertility was systematically lower than rural fertility; at smaller scales, suburbs were found to have higher fertility than central districts and the neighbouring rural areas. However, fertility divides have rarely been re‐contextualised in a long‐term perspective, considering the influence of exogenous factors that change over time with urban cycles. Assuming that spatial fertility variations are contextual to the development stage of a given region, the present study goes beyond the traditional 'urban‐suburban‐rural' divide and provides a long‐term vision that integrates small‐scale fertility variations and city life cycles. The study investigates spatial trends in a fertility index along a cycle from urbanisation to re‐urbanisation in a low‐fertility European context (Athens, Greece) using a multi‐scale analysis framework. The empirical findings of this study demonstrate that rural fertility was systematically lower than urban fertility apart from a short time interval (1950s). Fertility in urban locations was the highest during earlier stages of urbanisation. In suburban locations, fertility increased during late suburbanisation, stabilising (or declining slightly) with counter‐urbanisation. Re‐urbanisation was associated with a greater spatial heterogeneity in fertility rates. By documenting a differential response of fertility to urban cycles, our study re‐frames the relationship between natural population dynamics and metropolitan transitions, concluding that regional fertility divides are temporary outcomes of a specific ensemble of socio‐economic forces underlying a given urban model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article gives a concise overview of the theoretical development of the concept of the "second demographic transition" since it was coined in 1986, its components, and its applicability, first to European populations and subsequently also to non-European societies as well. Both the demographic and the societal contrasts between the first demographic transition (FDT) and the second demographic transition (SDT) are highlighted. Then, the major criticisms of the SDT theory are outlined, and these issues are discussed in the light of the most recent developments in Europe, the United States, the Far East, and Latin America. It turns out that three major SDT patterns have developed and that these evolutions are contingent on much older systems of kinship and family organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of the proportion of immature skeletons recovered from European prehistoric cemeteries has shown that the transition to agriculture after 9000 BP triggered a long-term increase in human fertility. Here we compare the largest analysis of European cemeteries to date with an independent line of evidence, the summed calibrated date probability distribution of radiocarbon dates (SCDPD) from archaeological sites. Our cemetery reanalysis confirms increased growth rates after the introduction of agriculture; the radiocarbon analysis also shows this pattern, and a significant correlation between both lines of evidence confirms the demographic validity of SCDPDs. We analyze the areal extent of Neolithic enclosures and demographic data from ethnographically known farming and foraging societies and we estimate differences in population levels at individual sites. We find little effect on the overall shape and precision of the SCDPD and we observe a small increase in the correlation with the cemetery trends. The SCDPD analysis supports the hypothesis that the transition to agriculture dramatically increased demographic growth, but it was followed within centuries by a general pattern of collapse even after accounting for higher settlement densities during the Neolithic. The study supports the unique contribution of SCDPDs as a valid demographic proxy for the demographic patterns associated with early agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An essay is presented on the relationship between demographic transition and democracy. According to the author, shifts from high to low birth and death rates played a significant role in the development of democracy in Europe and North America. It is suggested that conditions created by fertility decline, including population aging and changes in the lives of women, contribute towards the conditions required for socio-political stability.

Empirical tests of migration systems theory require consistent and complete data on international migration flows. Publicly available data, however, represent an inconsistent and incomplete set of measurements obtained from a variety of national data collection systems. We overcome these obstacles by standardizing the available migration reports of sending and receiving countries in the European Union and Norway each year from 2003-2007 and by estimating the remaining missing flows. The resulting harmonized estimates are then used to test migration systems theory. First, locating thresholds in the size of flows over time, we identify three migration systems within the European Union and Norway. Second, examining the key determinants of flows with respect to the predictions of migration systems theory, our results highlight the importance of shared experiences of nation-state formation, geography, and accession status in the European Union. Our findings lend support to migration systems theory and demonstrate that knowledge of migration systems may improve the accuracy of migration forecasts toward managing the impacts of migration as a source of social change in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BSTRACT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a narrative of the unfolding of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) since the theory was first formulated in 1986. The first part recapitulates the foundations of the theory, and documents the spread of the SDT to the point that it now covers most European populations. Also for Europe, it focuses on the relationship between the SDT and the growing heterogeneity in period fertility levels. It is shown that the current positive relationship between SDT and TFR levels is not a violation of the SDT theory, but the outcome of a “split correlation” with different sub-narratives concerning the onset of fertility postponement and the degree of subsequent recuperation in two parts of Europe. The second part of the article addresses the issue of whether the SDT has spread or is currently spreading in industrialized Asian countries. Evidence gathered for Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan is presented. That evidence pertains to both the macro-level (national trends in postponement of marriage and parenthood, rise of cohabitation) and the micro-level (connections between individual values orientations and postponement of parenthood). Strong similarities are found with SDT patterns in Southern Europe, except for the fact that parenthood is still very rare among Asian cohabiting partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Total fertility rates fell to previously unseen levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of TFRs below 1.3 raised the possibility of rapid population aging and decline. We discuss the recent widespread turnaround in so-called lowest-low-fertility countries in Europe and East Asia. The number of countries with TFRs below 1.3 fell from 21 in 2003 to five in 2008. Moreover, the upturn in the TFR was not confined to lowest-fertility countries, but affected the whole developed world. We explore the demographic explanations for the recent rise in TFRs stemming from fertility timing effects as well as economic, policy, and social factors. Although the current economic downturn may suppress TFRs in the short run, we conclude that formerly lowest-low-fertility countries will continue to see increases in fertility as the transitory effects of shifts to later childbearing become less important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This chapter discusses the concept of the second demographic transition (SDT) and its relevance for explaining the ongoing changes in family and fertility patterns across Europe. It takes a closer look at the shifts in values and attitudes related to family, reproduction, and children, and their representation in different chapters in this collection. It re-examines the link between the second demographic transition and fertility, highlights its strong positive association with fertility at later childbearing ages, and suggests that the transition does not necessarily lead to subreplacement fertility levels. Subsequently, it provides an extensive discussion on the progression of the SDT behind the former 'Iron Curtain.' To explain some apparent contradictions in this process, it employs a conceptual model of 'readiness, willingness, and ability' (RWA) advocated by Lesthaeghe and Vanderhoeft (2001). It also explores the multifaceted nature of the second demographic transition between different social groups, and points out an apparent paradox: whereas lowereducated individuals often embrace values that can be characterised as rather traditional, they also frequently manifest family behaviour associated with the transition, such as non-marital childbearing, high partnership instability, and high prevalence of long-term cohabitation. This suggests that there may be two different pathways of the progression of the second demographic transition. The concluding section points out the role of structural constraints for the diffusion of the transition among disadvantaged social strata, highlights the importance of the 'gender revolution' for the SDT trends, and discusses the usefulness of the SDT framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article suggests that, during the beginning of the 21st century, a demographic transition is occurring in Europe and the United States. The author notes that composition of population according to ethnic origin, as well as projections based on population trends, may share in the cause for this trend. The article defines what a demographic transition is, and examines earlier demographic transitions in history. The author also notes that a demographic transition may be aided by low fertility rates, as well as high amounts of immigration to Europe and the U.S.

Copyright of European Journal of Population is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The historic decline in completed marital fertility has long been studied for its effects on the Demographic Transition in Europe, I applied logistic models to the actual data and test for statistical fit of the model to the data. I explain the logistic patterns in declining completed marital fertility rates assume that, as Western countries underwent diffusion of family limitation, individuals observed the behavior of others in their and adjoining cohorts. Social integration is then assumed to have lead to imitative processes in which individuals increasingly reduced their fertility in through processes of endogenous feedback. I demonstrate that a non-stationary stochastic process is able to explain the change of the distribution of the ratio of the number of the children with current hypotheses of the underlying mechanism. It is also more parsimonious and provides a good fit to the observed change of the ratio distribution of the number of children that traditional approaches have not done. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Continuity & Change is the property of Cambridge University Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Proto-industrialization (P1) is a concept introduced several years ago to explain a number of paradoxical aspects of the pre-history of industrialization: in a word the remarkable growth of labour-intensive, low technology handwork for distant markets, dispersed in countless rural households throughout large regions of west, central and eastern Europe. Without disputing the facts themselves, the concept has been subjected to vigorous and serious criticism, including one by the present author. Geoff Eley's recent review article of one of the basic P1 texts (KMS) argued that these critiques were basically negative, neglecting the 'moment' in which that work was conceived and written, and thus blind to the substantial advance which it represented. I dispute his argument; Eley neglects the constructive part of our own contributions - that is 'our moments': the attempts to formulate alternative frameworks capable of explaining the same facts and giving reason to our criticism. The whole question surely brings into focus the more serious problem of the methodological and theoretical status of the several types of transition theory, most notably the problem of all 'internalist' treatments, the place of regions beyond Europe in an adequate debate on transition, and thus the question of the minimal framework suit- able for dealing with such questions, even when they pertain directly to Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]