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Yerba mate (Ilex paraguariensis) is renowned for its nutritional and pharmaceutical attributes. A staple in South American (SA) culture, it serves as the foundation for several traditional beverages. Significantly, the pharmaceutical domain has secured numerous patents associated with this plant's distinctive properties. This research delves into the climatic influence on yerba mate by leveraging the CMIP6 model projections to assess potential shifts brought about by climate change. Given its economic and socio-cultural significance, comprehending how climate change might sway yerba mate's production and distribution is pivotal. The CMIP6 model offers insights into future conditions, pinpointing areas that are either conducive or adverse for yerba mate cultivation. Our findings will be instrumental in crafting adaptive and mitigative strategies, thereby directing sustainable production planning for yerba mate. The core objective of this study was to highlight zones optimal for Ilex paraguariensis cultivation across its major producers: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, under CMIP6's climate change forecasts. Our investigation encompassed major producing zones spanning the North, Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, and South of Brazil, along with the aforementioned countries. A conducive environment for this crop's growth features air temperatures between 21 to 25 °C and a minimum precipitation of 1200 mm per cycle. We sourced the current climate data from the WorldClim version 2 platform. Meanwhile, projections for future climatic parameters were derived from WorldClim 2.1, utilizing the IPSL-CM6A-LR model with a refined 30-s spatial resolution. We took into account four distinct socio-economic pathways over varying timelines: 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2081, and 2081–2100. Geographic information system data aided in the spatial interpolation across Brazil, applying the Kriging technique. The outcomes revealed a majority of the examined areas as non-conducive for yerba mate cultivation, with a scanty 12.25% (1.5 million km2) deemed favorable. Predominantly, these propitious regions lie in southern Brazil and Uruguay, the present-day primary producers of yerba mate. Alarming was the discovery that forthcoming climatic scenarios predominantly forecast detrimental shifts, characterized by escalating average air temperatures and diminishing rainfall. These trends portend a decline in suitable cultivation regions for yerba mate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a major problem for humanity, as it can drastically alter the current climate scenario, affecting mainly agriculture. In the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), agribusiness is the main economic activity representing a large part of the state's GDP. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of climate change on the climatological water balance in the Pantanal regions of Brazil. We used a 30-year historical series (1987–2018) of air temperature data (Tar, °C) and rainfall (P, mm) from the state of MS; climatic data were collected by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration platform/Prediction of World Wide Energy Resources - (NASA/POWER). Potential evapotranspiration (PET) was estimated using the Camargo (1971) method. The water balance (WB) was calculated using the Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) method, with soil water storage capacity equal to 100 mm. We calculated the aridity, hydric, and moisture indices for all municipalities in MS, and later classified according to Thornthwaite (1948). The scenarios used were based on the (IPCC 2014) projections. Air temperatures in the MS ranged from 22.5 to 27.6 °C in the current scenario; rainfall and PET have an average of 1400 mm annual−1 and 1188 mm annual−1, respectively. The WB of the state of MS has an EXC and DEF of 197.7 mm annual−1 and 64.2 mm annual−1, respectively. The predominant climatic type is C2 - subhumid. The highest values for SWS and EXC occur in scenarios S5, S10, S15, and S20, which are the most moisture scenarios. The highest DEF occurred in scenarios S1, S11, S16, and S21; these scenarios showed the driest climatic types. The northwestern region of the state, where the Pantanal is located, was the driest. In scenario S21, the climate of the state has a drastic change that makes several crops in the MS unfeasible, thus negatively influencing the fauna and flora of the Pantanal biome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Annatto, a globally valued crop, has multifaceted applications ranging from food coloring to medicine. While adaptable, its productivity is influenced by climate, making it vulnerable to global warming. This study investigates the agroclimatic suitability for annatto cultivation in Brazil, considering current and projected climate scenarios, highlighting potential impacts on agriculture, the economy, and environmental sustainability. This study aims to carry out the annatto (Bixa orellana L.) agroclimatic zoning for Brazil in the current scenario and the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario for CMIP6. Air temperature and daily precipitation data for the 1970–2000 and for 2021–2100 for the IPSL-CM6A-LR model the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 in GeoTIFF format. This study was carried out for the entire Brazilian territory. Future climate variables were obtained by the WorldClim 2.1 platform for the IPSL-CM6A-LR model in the periods 2021–2100 and the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenario. Thus, zoning was carried out using geographic information systems software (QGIS), automated with the Python language. The annatto climate zoning for the current scenario showed five classes. The most predominant class was restricted due to excess water (42.9%), followed by the suitable class (32.5%), standing out the central Brazilian region: Mato Grosso do Sul (91.6%), Goiás (80.8%), and Tocantins (92.6%). Climate change affected negatively annatto climate zoning in all scenarios. The suitability class for the SSP5-8.5 scenario decreased in all periods, with means of 27.9% (2021–2040), 20.2% (2041–2060), 12.1% (2061–2080), and 6.5% (2081–2100). Climate changes significantly impact annatto cultivation areas in Brazil, particularly by 2081–2100, with a notable reduction in suitable zones. Key producing regions, like Monte Castelo-SP and Dracena-SP, face unsuitability, threatening local economies. The study underscores the urgency to explore annatto's adaptive capacity against the direst IPCC scenario (SSP5-8.5). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Climate conditions affect animal welfare directly, influencing milk production. The Midwest region is the largest cattle‐producing region in Brazil. The objective of this study was to elaborate on bioclimatic zoning for dairy cattle in the Midwest region of Brazil. Air temperature (Ta, °C) and relative humidity (%, RH) data from a 30‐year historical series (1989–2019) collected by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA/POWER) platform were used. The Temperature and Humidity Index (THI) was determined for the hottest and coldest months. Milk production losses due to climate factors in the Midwest of Brazil for two daily production levels, 10 kg Milk (PL10) and 25 kg Milk (PL25), were estimated. RESULTS: The Midwest presented three THI classifications throughout the year: 'normal', 'alert', and 'critical alert'. The entire Midwest region was classified as 'normal' (THI < 70) between autumn and winter. The decrease in milk production (DMP) during the autumn and winter presented no loss for both production levels (PL10 and PL25). CONCLUSION: On the other hand, a 1 to 2 kg reduction in milk production was observed for cows with a PL25 production level between spring and summer in the southern Midwest region, while cows with a PL10 production level showed no reduction in milk production. Only the cities of Sinop and Cuiabá did not present a 'critical alert' during spring/summer for the risk of heat stress. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Peanuts are widely grown in Brazil because of their great importance in the domestic vegetable oil industry and the succession of sugarcane, soybean and maize crops, contributing to soil conservation and improvement in agricultural areas. Thus, the present study aimed to determine the zoning of peanuts' climatic risk by estimating the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) for the crop in Brazil. We used a historical series of data on average air temperature and rainfall between 1980 and 2016. Reference evapotranspiration was estimated using the method of Thornthwaite, and we subsequently calculated crop evapotranspiration and maximum evapotranspiration. Water balances for all stations were calculated using the method of Thornthwaite and Mather, with an available water capacity in the soil of 15, 30 and 45 mm. The definitions of suitable, unfit and restricted areas and the planting season were performed using the WRSI. RESULTS: Brazil has low climatic risk areas for growing peanuts throughout the year, except for winter. The country reveals that 88.19%, 97.93%, 99.16% and 39.25% of its area is suitable for planting peanuts on planting dates in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively. CONCLUSION: Brazil has a large part of the areas favorable to the planting of peanuts. The maximum availability of soil water at a depth of 15, 30 and 45 mm does not influence regions with respect to peanut growing in Brazil. The states of Piauí, Ceará and Bahia are the most unsuitable on the winter planting date, with an average WRSI of 0.22. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate Classification System (CCS) is an important tool for validating climate change models, subsidizing the characterization of new areas suitable or unfit for agricultural activity according to future climate change scenarios. This study aims to classify the climate of the Brazilian territory in the various climate change scenarios of the IPCC through the Thornthwaite system (1948). We used a 30-year historical series (1989–2019) of climatic data of average air temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm), obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources platform (NASA/POWER). Potential evapotranspiration (ETP) was estimated by the method of Camargo (1971); the climatological water balance (CWB) was calculated by the method of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955), using 100 mm of soil water storage capacity. CWB extracts were combined for classification by Thornthwaite (1948). The scenarios used were based on the IPCC (2014) projections and the study of Pirttioja et al. (2015). The Brazilian territory had an average air temperature of 22.20 °C (± 3.20) °C and annual precipitation of 1987 mm (± 725) mm. The climatic classification of Thornthwaite presented 108 climatic classes for the current scenario with a more significant predominance of the classes ArAʹaʹ, B4rAʹaʹ, and B3rAʹaʹ representing 20.54%, 15.62%, and 9.46% of the Brazilian territory, respectively. The climate class ArAʹaʹ had 39.20% in the North and 14.97% in the Midwest. The South region has a predominance of 24.31% for the class ArBʹ3aʹ. In the Southeast and Northeast, the climate classes B2rBʹ3aʹ and DdBʹ2aʹ represented 14.80% and 15.26% of the regions, respectively. The S5 scenario was considered more favorable to establishing crops, with 48.04% of Brazil represented by the climate class ArAʹaʹ. Furthermore, the most catastrophic scenarios for crops were S3 and S4, promoting Brazil a predominance of classes B3rAʹaʹ in 18.02% and B1rAʹaʹ in 21.04%, respectively, favoring the occurrence of arid and dry climates in large part of the Brazilian territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improvement of planting season and crop growth time, considering climatic and soil needs of plants, is important to increase cassava (Manihot esculenta) production in Midwestern Brazil. Thus, we sought to develop an agricultural zoning for cassava cultivation in the Midwest of Brazil in different climate change scenarios. Mean air temperature and precipitation data from localities of the Midwest of Brazil were obtained from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). Clay (%) data from localities of the Midwest of Brazil were obtained from SoilGrids. Regions where the air temperature was within the range from 20 to 27 °C were considered climatically favorable for commercial exploitation of cassava, in addition to precipitation between 1000 and 1500 mm year−1, and clay content was less than ≤ 35%. Moreover, regions with air temperature below 16 °C and above 38 °C, precipitation below 1000 mm and above 1500 mm year−1, and clay content > 35% were considered unsuitable for cassava cultivation. Raster or matrix images, corresponding to mean annual air temperature, annual precipitation, and clay (soil), were superimposed to create cassava suitability classes, according to crop requirements. The climate change scenarios were established by changing the air temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm). The air temperature was increased by 1.5, 3.0, 4.5, and 6.0 °C as adopted by Pirttioja et al. (Clim Res 65:87–105, 2015). We changed in precipitation − 30, − 15, + 15, and 30% according to the future projections simulated by the IPCC (2014). Maps were made using geographic information systems. In the states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, and Goiás, mean precipitation was around 1200 to 4000 mm year−1. Northern Mato Grosso showed the highest annual precipitation, with values above 3500 mm. A large extension of the Midwest region of Brazil is climatically and soil favorable for cassava. The Midwest is a region with high rainfall, so we recommend planting in well-drained soils to avoid phytosanitary problems. Producers taking this care can plant cassava in 86.6% of the territory. The climate change scenarios demonstrated different Agriculture zonings for cassava in the Midwest of Brazil. With the increase in air temperature, greater marginal classes occurred, but cassava is resistant to this condition. But, this increase in temperature can reduce the cycle and consequently reduce production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]