Search

Assesses the performance of the economy in the River Plate area in Argentina from the 1820s to the 1860s. Expansion of the rural economy; Micro- and macroeconomic consequences of inflationary financing; Contemporary financial and monetary circumstances; Buenos Aires' implementation of a 40-year process of dealing with inconvertible paper money.

Aim/purpose - This paper investigates the accuracy of leading indicators in the case of the 2001 sovereign default crisis and the 2018 currency turmoil in Argentina. Design/methodology/approach - In this paper, we conducted early warning signals analysis based on a-priori selected variables. For each of the macroeconomic variables, we computed yearly changes and selected the threshold to minimise the noise-to-signal ratio, i.e. the ratio of percentage of false signals in 'normal' times to percentage of good signals in a two-year period preceding each of the crises. Findings - The predictive power of indicators differs significantly in various crisis episodes. For the 2001 crisis, the decline in value of bank deposits was the best leading indicator based on the noise-to-signal ratio. For the 2018 currency crisis, the lowest noise-to-signal ratio was observed for the lending-deposit rate ratio. Research implications/limitations - The survey is limited mostly by the data availability and their quality. Originality/value/contribution - This paper gives a complex review of the major early warning indicators in the context of the most recent history of Argentina's economy. It applies a set of classical leading indicators to two modern cases of financial crises. The paper proposes an original 'knocking the window' approach to the presentation of traditional warning concepts in the context of current economic events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Estudios Gerenciales is the property of Universidad ICESI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista Iberoamericana de Ciencia, Tecnologia y Sociedad is the property of Centro de Estudios sobre Ciencia, Desarrollo y Educacion Superior and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Anuario del Instituto de Historia Argentina is the property of Universidad Nacional de La Plata and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Bitácora Urbano/Territorial is the property of Bitacora Urbano/Territorial and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper we show how rational expectations equilibrium models with asymmetric information, without market frictions, can generate extreme comovements in asset prices. Information asymmetries generate a multiplier effect on price correlation - a World Bank definition of financial contagion. This is shown in two frameworks: perfect and imperfect competition. In the first framework, we also model a version of home-bias, showing why information sharing explains crosscountry capital flows. In the second framework, we provide closed form solutions for a model with multiple insiders and assets that generalize the ideas in [10]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes debt securitization in underdeveloped countries, using the case of Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil. We argue that the three countries have had a significant increase in the issuance of debt securities. However, the nature of the securities issued is different in each nation. In the case of Argentina, the increase in international debt securities in circulation has to do with the issuance of government securities. In Mexico, the increase is more related to the new financing needs of Mexican non-financial corporations. While in Brazil, the increase in the issuance of debt securities is due to a combination of both factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows the effects of uncertainty of economic growth and inflation on average rates of output growth and inflation, using quarterly data of Argentina, during the last three decades. The paper employs a GARCH-M model (VAKMA model) that permits to test diagonally and symmetry relationships between the variables. The results suggest that increased growth uncertainty is associated with significantly higher average output growth (theory of precautionary savings), while higher inflation uncertainty is correlated with lower average output growth (Okun, 1971, and Friedman, 1977, arguments). Both inflation and economic growth show evidence of significant asymmetric response to positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of H-Industria: Revista de Historia de la Industria Argentina y Latinoamericana is the property of H-Industria, Revista de Historia de la Industria Argentina y Latinoamericana and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We classify firms according to their financial behaviour in the short term using a Minskyan taxonomy that classifies firms as Hedge, Speculative and Ponzi. We measure financial constraints across that taxonomy using panel-data for Argentina during 1992-2001. After controlling for profitability we find that firms with an oppressed financial structure in the short term had to rely on their internal funds for long-term investment. We interpret this finding from a Minskyan/Keynesian framework arguing that credit allocation followed conventional rules about the quality of borrowers and not necessarily about the quality of the project. Because of being a highly unstable country, Argentinean firms' quality is defined on a short- term basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Desarrollo Económico is the property of Instituto de Desarrollo Economico y Social and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the 2002 crisis in Argentina was, at least to some extent, self-fulfilling. The theoretical basis we refer to is the so-called “second-generation” models. We use a Markov-switching model that allows us to empirically estimate the role played by fundamentals and/or shifts in devaluation expectations. Our results suggest that shifts in expectations have induced the crisis. However, because deteriorating fundamentals are also significant, we conclude that the collapse of the peg has been partly driven by adverse fundamentals and that abrupt shifts in devaluation expectations have forced a premature exit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the shift in the Argentine economy from an emphasis on the exportation of raw materials to a focus on domestic markets, including the beginning of import substitution during the period from 1900 to 1935. It explains that during this period, the Argentine state increased in terms of size and number of functions. The article analyzes Argentine public investment in railway and sanitation projects, which resulted in the creation of the first Argentine public enterprises, in particular. It also discusses aspects of public finance, including the structure and evolution of the tax collection regime, a necessary means of extracting financial resources necessary to support public investment projects.