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Under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, few studies have explored the different influences of CO2, temperature, and precipitation on wheat yield in China. Hence, we analyzed the different influences of above factors on wheat yield after analyzing the wheat yield change. Results show that (1) the wheat yield of China would increase under the two warming scenarios. The spring wheat yield of the Northeast Spring Wheat Region (DB_S) and the Northwest Spring Wheat Region (XB_S) would increase more than that in the other two spring wheat-planting subregions. The winter wheat yield of the Southwest Winter Wheat Region (XN_W) and Middle and Lower Yangtze Winter Wheat Region (CJ_W) would increase more significantly compared with that in the other three winter wheat-planting subregions. (2) CO2 fertilization was identified as the main factor leading to a wheat yield increase, with an estimated increase of 12–18% under the 1.5 °C warming scenario and 18–21% under the 2.0 °C warming scenario. (3) Without considering CO2 fertilization, compared with precipitation, temperature dominated the spatial patterns of the wheat yield responses to climate change. Temperature influence on wheat yield was mainly reflected in the amplitudes of yield increase, while precipitation mainly affected the proportion of yield-increasing area. For wheat-planting regions with less precipitation, such as the North Spring Wheat Region (BB_S) and the Huang-Huai Winter Wheat Region (HH_W), the wheat yield increase caused by precipitation was usually more pronounced. Our findings would help inform policy decisions related to wheat production in China to better cope with future climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nitrogen fertilizer is one of the essential nutrients for wheat growth and development, and it plays an important role in increasing and stabilizing wheat yield. Future climate change will affect wheat growth, development, and yield, since climate change will also alter nitrogen cycles in farmland. Therefore, further research is needed to understand the response of wheat yield and nitrogen losses to climate change during cultivation. In this study, we investigate the wheat-producing region in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China, one of the leading wheat-producing areas, by employing a random forest model using wheat yield records from agricultural meteorological observation stations and spatial data on wheat yield, nitrogen application rate, and nitrogen losses. The model predicts winter wheat yield and nitrogen losses in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River based on CMIP6 meteorological data and related environmental variables, under SSP126 and SSP585 emission scenarios. The results show that future climate change (temperature and precipitation changes) will decrease winter wheat yield by 2~4% and reduce total nitrogen losses by 0~5%, but in other areas, the total nitrogen losses will increase by 0~5% and the N leaching losses per unit of yield will increase by 0~10%. The results of this study can provide a theoretical basis and reference for optimizing nitrogen application rates, increasing yield, and reducing nitrogen losses in wheat cultivation under climate change conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and water shortage have brought great challenges to agricultural production in the North China Plain, and it's crucial to find the suitable method to address these challenges. Climate model projections were used to drive the Agro-Hydrological & chemical and Crop systems simulator (AHC) that considering the impact of irrigation on field microclimate. Yield, evapotranspiration (ET), water productivity (WP), and the impact on groundwater level of 6 wheat varieties under 6 sprinkler irrigation scheduling (IS1: no irrigation; IS6: full irrigation without water deficit; IS2–5: deficit irrigation with 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, and 0.8 times water of IS6 after wheat greening) were estimated in Xingtai under current and two shared social economic paths scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5). The optimal combination of irrigation and variety (OC) was selected by Topsis method. The results indicated that AHC had a high accuracy in simulating the growth of six varieties (R2>0.80, NRMSE<20 %) after parameter optimization. The temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation in 2021–2100 increased by 0.1–2.8 °C, 0.7–1.7 MJ m−2 d−1, and 5.2–28.8 mm under SSP2–4.5 and 0.2–4.8 °C, 0.9–1.2 MJ m−2 d−1, and 4.7–73.1 mm under SSP5–8.5 than current climate. As the irrigation amount increased, the simulated yield and ET increased, while WP first increased and then decreased. Due to climate change, irrigation failed to improve the wheat potential yield after 2080 under SSP2–4.5 and 2060 under SSP5–8.5. The OC implied that "Shimai26" and IS5 and IS4 in the future were the best strategy. It saved water by 13–23 % with similar yield than full irrigation. Moreover, the inhibitory effect of OC on annual groundwater level drawdown was stronger than other irrigation by 0.04–0.24 m. These findings were beneficial for mitigating climate impacts on grain yields in water scarce areas. ● Shimai26 was the best wheat variety under climate change. ● 0.8 and 0.6 times full irrigation after wheat regreening were the best in future. ● Irrigation couldn't increase wheat potential yield at the end of 21st century. ● Best irrigation saved 13–23 % water with similar yield than full irrigation. ● Best irrigation had the greatest inhibitory effect on groundwater level decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global surface temperature is increasing significantly under climate change with increasingly uneven distribution of precipitation, which has been making an important impact on the sustainable development of the dryland agriculture in semi-arid regions. The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) has the largest area ratio of semi-arid regions in China, and spring wheat is one of its major grain crops, and the negative impacts of climate change pose a serious threat to its production. In order to reduce this threat, we assessed the impact thresholds and risks posed by the main climatic factors to spring-wheat production, and put forward quantitative adaptive countermeasures. The results showed that, from 1961 to 2012, the appropriate impact thresholds of average temperature, precipitation, fertilization level, and water supply level were 15.6 °C, 333 mm, 319.5 kg/ha, and 743.7 mm, respectively. Compared with the average values in 1996–2012, the maximum fertilization level and water supply level could be increased by 162.2 kg/ha and 406.5 mm, respectively, to improve the adaptive yield of spring wheat. The risks of adverse impacts of temperature rise, precipitation decrease, and their combined effect on spring-wheat production were found to be 11.1%, 9.3%, and 10.3%, respectively. The whole IMAR showed a high risk of adverse impacts of temperature rise and the combined action of temperature rise and precipitation decrease on spring-wheat production. In particular, the spring-wheat production in the northeastern, eastern, and central areas were found to be at the highest risk to the impacts of climate change. Based on the determined appropriate thresholds of fertilization level and water supply level, it was determined that in the northeastern area, the maximum fertilization level and water supply level could be increased by 229.9 kg/ha and 441.4 mm, respectively, to increase the adaptive yield of spring wheat. In the eastern area, the two factors could be increased by 142.2 kg/ha and 464.3 mm, respectively. In the central area, they could be increased by 242.2 kg/ha and 513.7 mm, respectively. In the southwestern area, they could be increased by 41.4 kg/ha and 201.7 mm, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature has a large influence on insect abundances, thus under climate change, identifying major drivers affecting pest insect populations is critical to world food security and agricultural ecosystem health. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis with data obtained from 120 studies across China and Europe from 1970 to 2017 to reveal how climate and agricultural practices affect populations of wheat aphids. Here we showed that aphid loads on wheat had distinct patterns between these two regions, with a significant increase in China but a decrease in Europe over this time period. Although temperature increased over this period in both regions, we found no evidence showing climate warming affected aphid loads. Rather, differences in pesticide use, fertilization, land use, and natural enemies between China and Europe may be key factors accounting for differences in aphid pest populations. These long-term data suggest that agricultural practices impact wheat aphid loads more than climate warming. A meta-analysis of wheat aphid populations obtained from 120 studies from 1970 to 2017 reveals that pest loads increased in China but decreased in Europe and suggests this is due to differences in pesticide use, fertilization, land use, and natural enemies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural system models provide an effective tool for forecasting crop productivity and nutrient budgets under future climate change. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on crop failure, grain yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) for both winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) in northern China, using the SPACSYS model. The model was calibrated and validated with datasets from 20-year long-term experiments (1985–2004) for the Loess plateau, and then used to forecast production (2020–2049) under six sharing social-economic pathway climate scenarios for both wheat and maize crops with irrigation. Results suggested that warmer climatic scenarios might be favourable for reducing the crop failure rate and increasing the grain yield for winter wheat, while the same climatic scenarios were unfavourable for maize production in the region. Furthermore, future SOC stocks in the topsoil layer (0–30 cm) could increase but in the subsoil layer (30–100 cm) could decrease, regardless of the chosen crop. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reinvestigated the climate-crop yield relationship with the statistical model at crops' growing stage scale. Compared to previous studies, our model introduced monthly climate variables in the production function of crops, which enables separating the yield changes induced by climate change and those caused by inputs variation and technique progress, as well as examining different climate effects during each growing stage of crops. By applying the fixed effect regression model with province-level panel data of crop yields, agricultural inputs, and the monthly climate variables of temperature and precipitation from 1985 to 2015, we found that the effects of temperature generally are negative and those of precipitation generally are positive, but they vary among different growth stages for each crop. Specifically, GDDs (i.e., growing degree days) have negative effects on spring maize's yield except for the sowing and ripening stages; the effects of precipitation are negative in September for summer maize. Precipitation in December and the next April is significantly harmful to the yield of winter wheat; while, for the spring wheat, GDDs have positive effects during April and May, and precipitation has negative effects during the ripening period. In addition, we computed climate-induced losses based on the climate-crop yield relationship, which demonstrated a strong tendency for increasing yield losses for all crops, with large interannual fluctuations. Comparatively, the long-term climate effects on yields of spring maize, summer maize, and spring wheat are more noticeable than those of winter wheat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Responses of wheat yield in different regions to separate and joint changes in mean temperature (T mean), precipitation (Prec), and solar radiation (Rad) are the foundation for sustainable development under climate change; however, these remain uncertain. Here, we quantified the response of wheat yield variation to changes in T mean , Prec, and Rad by building multiple regression models, de-trending analysis, and MK trend tests. Multi-site meteorological data was obtained from different wheat growing areas and corresponding wheat yield data from provinces. Our findings showed that the effects of different climatic elements on wheat yield are spatially heterogeneous by region, and the combined effects of climatic elements are higher than those of single elements. Climate change caused an increase of 1% and 4.52% in winter and winter-spring wheat areas, respectively, and a loss of 3.72% in spring wheat areas. In addition, the effect of single meteorological factors on wheat yield varied depending on their rate of change. Rad and Prec are the main drivers of wheat yield variability; in winter, spring and winter-spring wheat areas, Rad significantly impacted wheat yield by 0.89%, −1.18%, and 2.46%, respectively, and Prec caused changes of −0.18%, −1.54%, and 1.33%, respectively. Considering normal and extreme climate fluctuations, we found that the contribution of climate change to wheat yield changes in different wheat-growing regions reached 26.1%, 18.6%, and 16.7%, respectively. Our results indicate that the overall climatic conditions in the spring wheat region are moving in an unfavourable direction, while Prec variability has become the main limiting factor for wheat production in the current winter and winter-spring wheat regions. These comprehensive and detailed findings provide a reference for the development of more accurate adaptation strategies and management measures in different regions. Going forward, the results of this study can be better applied to the development of region-specific climate-smart agricultural practices and extended to other crops and regions to better understand the broader impacts of climate change on global food security. [Display omitted] • Spatial differences in crop yield responses to different climate drivers at large scales. • We quantified the effects of climate variation on wheat yield variability. • Uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and wheat yield variability. • Uncovering the main drivers of climate change impact on wheat yield in China. • Light-efficient varieties and effective irrigation may improve China's wheat yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to the introduction of wheat and barley from Central Asia during the Neolithic period, northern Chinese agricultural groups subsisted heavily on millet. Despite being the focus of many decades of intensive interest and research, the exact route(s), date(s), and mechanisms of the spread and adoption of wheat and barley into the existing well-established millet-based diet in northern China are still debated. As the majority of the important introduced crops are C3 plants, while the indigenous millet is C4, archaeologists can effectively identify the consumption of any introduced crops using stable carbon isotope analysis. Here we examine published stable isotope and dental caries data of human skeletal remains from 77 archaeological sites across northern and northwestern China. These sites date between 9000 to 1750 BP, encompassing the period from the beginning of agriculture to wheat’s emergence as a staple crop in northern China. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implications of the spread and adoption of these crops in ancient China. Detailed analysis of human bone collagen δ13C values reveals an almost concurrent shift from a C4-based to a mixed C3/ C4– based subsistence economy across all regions at around 4500–4000 BP. This coincided with a global climatic event, Holocene Event 3 at 4200 BP, suggesting that the sudden change in subsistence economy across northern and northwestern China was likely related to climate change. Moreover, the substantially increased prevalence of dental caries from pre–to post–4000 BP indicates an increase in the consumption of cariogenic cereals during the later period. The results from this study have significant implications for understanding how the adoption of a staple crop can be indicative of large-scale environmental and socio-political changes in a region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: China is facing the challenge of feeding a growing population with the declining cropland and increasing shortage of water resources under the changing climate. This study identified that the opportunistic profit‐driven shifts of planting areas and crop species composition have strongly reduced the food production capacity of China. First, the regional cultivation patterns of major crops in China have substantially shifted during the past five decades. Southeast and South China, the regions with abundant water resources and fewer natural disasters, have lost large planting areas of cropland in order to pursue industry and commerce. Meanwhile, Northeast and Northwest China, the regions with low water resources and frequent natural disasters, have witnessed increases in planting areas. These macroshifts have reduced the national food production by 1.02% per year. The lost grain production would have been enough to feed 13 million people. Second, the spatial shifts have been accompanied by major changes in crop species composition, with substantial increases in planting area and production of maize, due to its low water consumption and high economic returns. Consequently, the stockpile of maize in China has accounted for more than half of global stockpile, and the stock to use ratio of maize in China has exceeded the reliable level. Market‐driven regional shifts of cropping practices have resulted in larger irrigation requirements and aggravated environmental stresses. Our results highlighted the need for Chinese food policies to consider the spatial shifts in cultivation, and the planting crop compositions limited by regional water resources and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield per unit area from 1970 to 2014 in Henan, the largest agricultural province in China, using an autoregressive distributed lag approach. The bounded F-test for cointegration among the model variables yielded evidence of a long-run relationship among climate change, technical progress, and the wheat yield per unit area. In the long run, agricultural machinery and fertilizer use both had significantly positive impacts on the per unit area wheat yield. A 1% increase in the aggregate quantity of fertilizer use increased the wheat yield by 0.19%. Additionally, a 1% increase in machine use increased the wheat yield by 0.21%. In contrast, precipitation during the wheat growth period (from emergence to maturity, consisting of the period from last October to June) led to a decrease in the wheat yield per unit area. In the short run, the coefficient of the aggregate quantity of fertilizer used was negative. Land size had a significantly positive impact on the per unit area wheat yield in the short run. There was no significant short-run or long-run impact of temperature on the wheat yield per unit area in Henan Province. The results of our analysis suggest that climate change had a weak impact on the wheat yield, while technical progress played an important role in increasing the wheat yield per unit area. The results of this study have implications for national and local agriculture policies under climate change. To design well-targeted agriculture adaptation policies for the future and to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on the wheat yield, climate change and technical progress factors should be considered simultaneously. In addition, adaptive measures associated with technical progress should be given more attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After a remarkable 86% increase in cereal production from 1980 to 2005, recent crop yield growth in China has been slow. County level crop production data between 1980 and 2010 from eastern and middle China were used to analyze spatial and temporal patterns of rice, wheat and maize yield in five major farming systems that include around 90% of China's cereal production. Site-specific yield trends were assessed in areas where those crops have experienced increasing yield or where yields have stagnated or declined. We find that rice yields have continued to increase on over 12.3 million hectares (m. ha) or 41.8% of the rice area in China between 1980 and 2010. However, yields stagnated on 50% of the rice area (around 14.7 m. ha) over this time period. Wheat yields increased on 13.8 m. ha (58.2% of the total harvest area), but stagnated on around 3.8 m. ha (15.8% of the harvest area). Yields increased on a smaller proportion of the maize area (17.7% of harvest area, 5.3 m. ha), while yields have stagnated on over 54% (16.3 m. ha). Many parts of the lowland rice and upland intensive sub-tropical farming systems were more prone to stagnation with rice, the upland intensive sub-tropical system with wheat, and maize in the temperate mixed system. Large areas where wheat yield continues to rise were found in the lowland rice and temperate mixed systems. Land and water constraints, climate variability, and other environmental limitations undermine increased crop yield and agricultural productivity in these systems and threaten future food security. Technology and policy innovations must be implemented to promote crop yields and the sustainable use of agricultural resources to maintain food security in China. In many production regions it is possible to better match the crop with input resources to raise crop yields and benefits. Investments may be especially useful to intensify production in areas where yields continue to improve. For example, increased support to maize production in southern China, where yields are still rising, seems justified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic warming is often predicted to reduce wheat yield and grain quality in China. However, direct evidence is still lacking. We conducted a three-year experiment with a Free Air Temperature Increase (FATI) facility to examine the responses of winter wheat growth and plant N accumulation to a moderate temperature increase of 1.5°C predicted to prevail by 2050 in East China. Three warming treatments (AW: all-day warming; DW: daytime warming; NW: nighttime warming) were applied for an entire growth period. Consistent warming effects on wheat plant were recorded across the experimental years. An increase of ca. 1.5°C in daily, daytime and nighttime mean temperatures shortened the length of pre-anthesis period averagely by 12.7, 8.3 and 10.7 d (P<0.05), respectively, but had no significant impact on the length of the post-anthesis period. Warming did not significantly alter the aboveground biomass production, but the grain yield was 16.3, 18.1 and 19.6% (P<0.05) higher in the AW, DW and NW plots than the non-warmed plot, respectively. Warming also significantly increased plant N uptake and total biomass N accumulation. However, warming significantly reduced grain N concentrations while increased N concentrations in the leaves and stems. Together, our results demonstrate differential impacts of warming on the depositions of grain starch and protein, highlighting the needs to further understand the mechanisms that underlie warming impacts on plant C and N metabolism in wheat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming and altered precipitation patterns pose a serious threat to crop production in the North China Plain (NCP). Quantifying the frequency of adverse climate events (e.g., frost, heat and drought) under future climates and assessing how those climatic extreme events would affect yield are important to effectively inform and make science-based adaptation options for agriculture in a changing climate. In this study, we evaluated the effects of heat and frost stress during sensitive phenological stages at four representative sites in the NCP using the APSIM-wheat model. climate data included historical and future climates, the latter being informed by projections from 22 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) for the period 2031–2060 (2050s). Our results show that current projections of future wheat yield potential in the North China Plain may be overestimated; after more accurately accounting for the effects of frost and heat stress in the model, yield projections for 2031-60 decreased from 31% to 9%. Clustering of common drought-stress seasonal patterns into key groups revealed that moderate drought stress environments are likely to be alleviated in the future, although the frequency of severe drought-stress environments would remain similar (25%) to that occurring under the current climate. We highlight the importance of mechanistically accounting for temperature stress on crop physiology, enabling more robust projections of crop yields under future the burgeoning climate crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The production of cereals, including rice, wheat, and maize has increased in China over the past 20 years. However, variations in the production and cultivated area of cereals remains unclear. In this study, we collected and analyzed the cereal production and cultivated area in China from 1998 to 2016. An 85% increase in cereal production was recorded from 1998 to 2016, due to an increase in the maize production along with the increase in the cultivated area. Meanwhile, rice and wheat production have been stable since 2000. No change occurred in the rice cultivated area through 2016, and a 19% decrease in the wheat cultivated area was observed in 2016 relative to 1998. In addition, a significant positive relationship was observed among cereal production, maize production, and cultivated area (p < 0.0001). Together, the increase in cereal production in China over the past two decades has resulted from the increase in maize cultivated area and the consequent increase in maize production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]