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Early childhood anxiety disorders are common, impairing, and predictive of anxiety and mood disorders later in childhood. Epidemiological studies over the last decade find that the prevalence of impairing anxiety disorders in preschool children ranges from 0.3% to 6.5%. Yet, less than 15% of young children with an impairing anxiety disorder receive a mental health evaluation or treatment. One possible reason for the low rate of care for anxious preschoolers is the lack of affordable, timely, reliable and valid tools for identifying young children with clinically significant anxiety. Diagnostic interviews assessing psychopathology in young children require intensive training, take hours to administer and code, and are not available for use outside of research settings. The Preschool Age Psychiatric Assessment (PAPA) is a reliable and valid structured diagnostic parent-report interview for assessing psychopathology, including anxiety disorders, in 2 to 5 year old children. In this paper, we apply machine-learning tools to already collected PAPA data from two large community studies to identify sub-sets of PAPA items that could be developed into an efficient, reliable, and valid screening tool to assess a young child’s risk for an anxiety disorder. Using machine learning, we were able to decrease by an order of magnitude the number of items needed to identify a child who is at risk for an anxiety disorder with an accuracy of over 96% for both generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and separation anxiety disorder (SAD). Additionally, rather than considering GAD or SAD as discrete/binary entities, we present a continuous risk score representing the child’s risk of meeting criteria for GAD or SAD. Identification of a short question-set that assesses risk for an anxiety disorder could be a first step toward development and validation of a relatively short screening tool feasible for use in pediatric clinics and daycare/preschool settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) coordinates a labor-intensive process to measure the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among children in the United States. Random forests methods have shown promise in speeding up this process, but they lag behind human classification accuracy by about 5%. We explore whether more recently available document classification algorithms can close this gap. Materials and methods: Using data gathered from a single surveillance site, we applied 8 supervised learning algorithms to predict whether children meet the case definition for ASD based solely on the words in their evaluations. We compared the algorithms’ performance across 10 random train-test splits of the data, using classification accuracy, F1 score, and number of positive calls to evaluate their potential use for surveillance. Results: Across the 10 train-test cycles, the random forest and support vector machine with Naive Bayes features (NB-SVM) each achieved slightly more than 87% mean accuracy. The NB-SVM produced significantly more false negatives than false positives (P = 0.027), but the random forest did not, making its prevalence estimates very close to the true prevalence in the data. The best-performing neural network performed similarly to the random forest on both measures. Discussion: The random forest performed as well as more recently available models like the NB-SVM and the neural network, and it also produced good prevalence estimates. NB-SVM may not be a good candidate for use in a fully-automated surveillance workflow due to increased false negatives. More sophisticated algorithms, like hierarchical convolutional neural networks, may not be feasible to train due to characteristics of the data. Current algorithms might perform better if the data are abstracted and processed differently and if they take into account information about the children in addition to their evaluations. Conclusion: Deep learning models performed similarly to traditional machine learning methods at predicting the clinician-assigned case status for CDC’s autism surveillance system. While deep learning methods had limited benefit in this task, they may have applications in other surveillance systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Cohort selection is challenging for large-scale electronic health record (EHR) analyses, as International Classification of Diseases 9th edition (ICD-9) diagnostic codes are notoriously unreliable disease predictors. Our objective was to develop, evaluate, and validate an automated algorithm for determining an Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) patient cohort from EHR. We demonstrate its utility via the largest investigation to date of the co-occurrence patterns of medical comorbidities in ASD. Methods: We extracted ICD-9 codes and concepts derived from the clinical notes. A gold standard patient set was labeled by clinicians at Boston Children’s Hospital (BCH) (N = 150) and Cincinnati Children’s Hospital and Medical Center (CCHMC) (N = 152). Two algorithms were created: (1) rule-based implementing the ASD criteria from Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Diseases 4th edition, (2) predictive classifier. The positive predictive values (PPV) achieved by these algorithms were compared to an ICD-9 code baseline. We clustered the patients based on grouped ICD-9 codes and evaluated subgroups. Results: The rule-based algorithm produced the best PPV: (a) BCH: 0.885 vs. 0.273 (baseline); (b) CCHMC: 0.840 vs. 0.645 (baseline); (c) combined: 0.864 vs. 0.460 (baseline). A validation at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia yielded 0.848 (PPV). Clustering analyses of comorbidities on the three-site large cohort (N = 20,658 ASD patients) identified psychiatric, developmental, and seizure disorder clusters. Conclusions: In a large cross-institutional cohort, co-occurrence patterns of comorbidities in ASDs provide further hypothetical evidence for distinct courses in ASD. The proposed automated algorithms for cohort selection open avenues for other large-scale EHR studies and individualized treatment of ASD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]