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Climate change is expected to increase woody vegetation abundance in the Arctic, yet the magnitude, spatial pattern and pathways of change remain uncertain. We compared historical orthophotos photos (1952 and 1979) with high‐resolution satellite imagery (2015) to examine six decades of change in abundance of white spruce Picea glauca and tall shrubs (Salix spp., Alnus spp.) near the Agashashok River in northwest Alaska. We established ~3000 random points within our ~5500 ha study area for classification into nine cover types. To examine physiographic controls on tree abundance, we fit multinomial log‐linear models with predictors derived from a digital elevation model and with arctic tundra, alpine tundra and 'tree' as levels of a categorical response variable. Between 1952 and 2015, points classified as arctic and alpine tundra decreased by 31% and 15%, respectively. Meanwhile, tall shrubs increased by 86%, trees mixed with tall shrubs increased by 385% and forest increased by 84%. Tundra with tall shrubs rarely transitioned to forest. The best multinomial model explained 71% of variation in cover and included elevation, slope and an interaction between slope and 'northness'. Treeline was defined as the elevation where the probability of tree presence equaled that of tundra. Mean treeline elevation in 2015 was 202 m, corresponding with a June–August mean air temperature > 11°C, which is > 4°C warmer than the 6–7°C isotherm associated with global treeline elevations. Our results show dramatic increases in the abundance of trees and tall shrubs, question the universality of air temperature as a predictor of treeline elevation and suggest two mutually exclusive pathways of vegetation change, because tundra that gained tall shrubs rarely transitioned to forest. Conversion of tundra to tall shrubs and forest has important and potentially contrasting implications for carbon cycling, surface energy exchange and wildlife habitat in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prevailing hypothesis states that treeline positions are defined by the direct effects of cold temperatures on cell division and tree growth. Meanwhile, photosynthesis is thought to be relatively unrestricted in treeline trees. Support for this hypothesis comes from the global correlation between temperature and treeline position, the observation that many treelines have advanced in response to recent warming and the frequent use of increment cores from treeline trees to reconstruct past climates. However, studies of the physiology of trees at the Arctic treeline are rare, and this hypothesis remains largely untested., To improve our understanding of the relationships between temperature and performance of white spruce near the Arctic treeline, we made measurements of needle gas exchange, needle nutrition and soil nutrient availability over 2 years in three contrasting habitats: riverside terrace, hillslope forest and treeline. The sites had similar above-ground microclimates, but very different soil conditions. Soils were warm and dry on the terrace, cool and moist in the forest and cold and seasonally wet the treeline., Photosynthesis, needle nitrogen (N) concentration and soil N availability declined from the terrace to the forest to the treeline. Low N availability at the treeline was likely a consequence of limited microbial activity in the cold and seasonally wet soils. Soils at the treeline were colder than the terrace during the growing season and colder than the forest in winter, when the treeline maintains a shallow snowpack., Our results highlight the potential for an indirect effect of temperature on the growth of trees at the Arctic treeline and suggest that treeline responses to changes in climate may be more complex than previously thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecological model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a mid-Holocene fire-regime shift in boreal forests of the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska, USA. Fire-return intervals (FRIs, number of years between fires) are estimated over the past 7000 calibrated 14C years (7-0 kyr BP [before present]) from short-term variations in charcoal accumulation rates (CHARs) at three lakes, and an index of area burned is inferred from long-term CHARs at these sites. ALFRESCO simulations of FRIs and annual area burned are based on prescribed vegetation and climate for 7-5 kyr BP and 5-0 kyr BP, inferred from pollen and stomata records and qualitative paleoclimate proxies. Two sets of experiments examine potential causes of increased burning between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP. (I) Static-vegetation scenarios: white spruce dominates with static mean temperature and total precipitation of the growing season for 7-0 kyr BP or with decreased temperature and/or increased precipitation for 5-0 kyr BP. (2) Changed-vegetation scenarios: black spruce dominates 5-0 kyr BP, with static temperature and precipitation or decreased temperature and/or increased precipitation. Median FRIs decreased between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP in empirical data and changed-vegetation scenarios but remained relatively constant in static-vegetation scenarios. Median empirical and simulated FRIs are not statistically different for 7-5 kyr BP and for two changed-vegetation scenarios (temperature decrease, precipitation increase) for 5-0 kyr BP. In these scenarios, cooler temperatures or increased precipitation dampened the effect of increased landscape flammability resulting from the increase in black spruce. CHAR records and all changed-vegetation scenarios indicate long-term increases in area burned between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP. The similarity of CHAR and ALFRESCO results demonstrates the compatibility of these independent data sets for investigating ecological mechanisms causing past fire-regime changes. The finding that vegetation flammability was a major driver of Holocene fire regimes is consistent with other investigations that suggest that landscape fuel characteristics will mediate the direct effects of future climate change on boreal fire regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The treeline in Alaska is usually mapped as the limit of white spruce Picea glauca (Moench) Voss along the south slope of the Brooks Range and in western Alaska and as the limit of Sitka spruce Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Can. on Kodiak Island and in the Alaska Peninsula. In some localities black spruce Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P. and paper birch Bemia papyrifera Marsh, fonn components of the treeline community with white spruce. Of special interest are the groves of balsam poplar Populus balsamifera L. occurring on the north slope of the Brooks Range and to the west and southwest of the spruce treeline. There is some question as to whether trees survived in unglaciated portions of Alaska during the last glacial period. Spruce trees became prevalent about 10000 yr ago and may still be expanding to their climatic limits. In some areas of Alaska the treeline was more expanded during the Hypsithermal period than it is at present, but in other regions evidence for such an expansion is lacking. Treetine in some areas seems to have been stable for the last several centuries, but is has been expanding rapidly for the last 40 yr in entral and western Alaska and for a longer period on Kodiak Island. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trees growing near the Arctic treeline have long been used to reconstruct past climates. However, recent studies have shown deterioration of historically strong positive correlations between air temperature and tree growth (known as "divergence"). Divergence has important implications for confidence in paleoclimate reconstructions and ecosystem–atmosphere carbon exchange. Studies in the Brooks Range of northern Alaska showed that white spruce in the west increased growth in response to late 20th century warming, whereas those in the east failed to show a growth increase. In an earlier study across four watersheds in the Brooks Range, we tested and rejected the hypothesis that divergence in the easternmost watershed reflects moisture limitation of growth. Here, using 16 sites distributed across the same four watersheds, we tested an alternative hypothesis, that greater nutrient limitation in the east may have impeded positive growth responses to warming. Climate comparison across the four Brooks Range study watersheds revealed that, although the easternmost watershed generally had a drier growing‐season climate, the most consistent difference was that winter air temperature and both winter and summer soil temperatures were much colder in the central and eastern watersheds. Soil nutrient availability, foliar nutrient concentrations, and tree growth were all generally lower in the central and eastern than in the western watersheds. Foliar phosphorus concentration was the best predictor of spatial variation in branch extension growth—a finding that is somewhat inconsistent with the theory that forest productivity on young, glacially derived soils should be strongly nitrogen limited. Experimental fertilization yielded the greatest growth increase in the eastern, an intermediate response in the central, and the smallest growth increase in the western watershed, generally mirroring trends in soil temperature, soil nutrient availability, foliar nutrient concentrations, and growth of control trees. Our results confirm that growth in the easternmost watershed is more nutrient limited and suggest that phosphorus limitation may be at least as important as nitrogen limitation of growth. We hypothesize that cold soil effects on tree access to nutrients might explain divergence in the eastern Brooks Range and elsewhere near the Arctic treeline, particularly in areas with cold winters and widespread permafrost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]