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This paper explores whether Ethiopia's rapid economic growth is transformative enough for the country to eventually catch up with high‐income countries. It does so by exploring the change and continuity of four elements of social capability from 1950 to 2020: structural transformation, economic inclusion and the state's autonomy and accountability. It finds that Ethiopia's social capability modestly strengthened until the mid‐1970s, then weakened until the early 2000s, and has since strengthened again. However, the level of inclusion has been persistently low. In conclusion, although there are grounds for optimism, limited economic inclusion is a key concern for future catch‐up growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade in services has become the most dynamic segment of international trade. This paper examines the competitiveness of services exports in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period 2005–2019 using revealed comparative advantage approach. The analysis shows that although SSA has a comparative advantage in traditional services, that is travel and transport, it has remained less competitive compared to other regions globally, and its share of world services exports is negligible. Moreover, SSA has not developed competitiveness in modern commercial services and, hence, continue to perform poorly. The results suggest only Nigeria and Kenya have so far developed comparative advantage in financial services. SSA's dismal performance of services exports can be attributed to various factors such as technological and infrastructure constraints, protectionist and regulatory barriers. There is need to rethink strategies of revamping and diversifying services esports to spur Africa's trade and economic transformation. These include leveraging the opportunities availed by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Unexploited opportunities include Africa's rich cultural diversity, recreation, business and conferencing services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the impact of financial development on economic growth in a sample of 32 Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. The countries were grouped into four sub‐regions, and data were collected for the period 1990–2016 on finance and growth indicators on an annual basis. In the estimation procedure, panel estimation and dynamic panel techniques were used. When the disaggregated components of financial development variables were used, findings, among others, reveal the role of credit to the private sector by banks (CPB) even though mixed, to have more impact on growth followed by broad money (BM) and liquidity liability (LL). However, an aggregated index of the financial development indicators via principal component analysis and their simultaneous interaction with human capital improvement brought about a greater positive impact on growth throughout the sub‐regions and the entire SSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focusing on low-income commodity-dependent sub-Saharan African countries, the paper argues that the impact of the 2008-2009 crisis, and more generally, these countries' growth trajectories, can be explained by the concept of the poverty trap. This is not trivial, because commodity-based traps remain debated: some countries have grounded their growth on the export of commodities, and the impact of commodity price fluctuations may be analysed through other concepts (such as cycles). Against these views, it shows that these countries' growth trajectories exhibit the three key theoretical features of poverty traps: threshold effects, cumulative causation and low equilibria. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to most classifications, Sub‐Saharan Africa is the region of the world with the highest presence of fragile states. In this paper we examine the relationship between fragility and poverty, suggesting that countries may become trapped in a vicious circle of fragility and low levels of wellbeing. We consider fragility as a continuum and begin by reviewing available measures. These show the high presence of fragility in Sub‐Saharan Africa and allow the more fragile countries to be identified. There is seen to be a strong association between fragility, poor growth performance, and lower wellbeing in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Building on the strong evidence for the two‐way relationship between economic growth and poverty, we present an analysis of how the vicious circle linking poorer welfare outcomes and fragility may be able to be broken. We argue that building successful institutions is key here, and this can be enabled by specific policy interventions that are both poverty reducing and productive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, we attempt to estimate the tax gap in the informal sector as well as the contributing factors of the tax losses in SSA countries using Ghana as a case study. Using micro data on non‐farm household enterprises obtained from the sixth round of the Ghana Living Standards Survey as well as data on quarterly tax payable by specified small scale enterprises derived from the Small Tax Payer office of the Ghana Revenue Authority, the findings show that the national potential and actual taxes in the informal sector are US$ 81 974 846 and US$ 25 023 273, respectively, reflecting an estimated national tax gap or loss of approximately US$ 56 951 573. Firm level variables such as type of business, urban location and experience of the firm significantly increase the propensity to pay tax and reduce the tax gap. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the causality between remittances and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. We employ the panel Granger causality testing approach that is based on seemingly unrelated regressions systems and Wald tests with country-specific bootstrap critical values. Using annual data over the period 1980-2007 for 20 SSA countries, we find that in any SSA country, there is no causality between remittances and growth. An explanation of why remittances do not increase growth in SSA countries is given by the causality test that shows that remittances do not increase physical capital investment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper traces salient aspects of the evolution of fiscal policy in sub-Saharan Africa since 1960 and highlights the need for further reforms to consolidate the gains of the recent past. The fiscal position of the sub-Saharan African region as a whole has improved markedly during the past ten years, but most countries still face formidable fiscal challenges. To consolidate the progress made during the past decade and to tackle the remaining problems, sub-Saharan African policymakers should remain firmly committed to sound fiscal policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beginning from the early 1980s countries in Sub-Saharan Africa embarked on financial liberalization policies with a view to reversing the ill-effects of financial repression. This paper provides a survey of financial liberalization in Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1980 to 2004. Our review of empirical studies showed that financial liberalization has had diverse and contrasting effects on savings, investment and economic growth. Most studies found a significant positive effect of financial liberalization on investment whereas its effect on savings has been largely insignificant. The evidence on the effect on economic growth is inconclusive as different studies find contrasting results. It is found that financial liberalization policies have not had the desired and expected results as both financial and macroeconomic variables have not improved following financial liberalization in these countries. This calls for a rethinking of financial liberalization in Sub-Saharan African countries. It is important that financial liberalization is carried out in a stable macroeconomic environment. In addition to this, there should be a building and reform of institutions and the strengthening of prudential regulation. Following this, financial liberalization can be embarked upon but it must be properly sequenced and not rushed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The establishment of a successful stock market in a developing economy can be a major source of economic growth if it provides development finance by channelling domestic savings and attracting foreign investment. However, this objective is not always met, particularly in very small markets where there are barriers to efficient market operations. A case study of Swaziland and Mozambique illustrates that any potential gains to the domestic investment community are limited if there is insufficient liquidity and the political economy is such that ownership is not truly dispersed but rather remains in the hands of social elites. This paper finds that potential growth of small developing markets is further severely constrained by poverty and wealth inequality and consequently the impact on development is minimal. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a recent public expenditure dataset, this article proposes a 'reality check' of the level and composition of input subsidies in nine African countries between 2006 and 2013. Results show that input subsidies (1) received close to 35% of agricultural-specific expenditure on average and (2) cover a variety of interventions, including investments in capital, such as on-farm irrigation, and in on-farm services, such as inspection or training. Further, the figures show that input subsidies tended to become entrenched in agricultural budgets over time, leading to sub-optimal execution rates, and were primarily funded by the national taxpayer, while donors invested more in public goods. Findings confirm that input subsidies crowded out other spending categories likely to be more supportive of long-term agricultural development objectives. The article concludes that the political economy of input subsidies should be directed to making more concrete efforts to attain a better balance of public expenditure on agriculture. Furthermore, policy-makers should aim to increase the efficiency and policy coherence of input subsidies, since merely abolishing them is likely to be unfeasible in the short term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uganda has ambitions to become a middle‐income country by 2040. Achieving this goal would require an economic transformation that is led and aided by industrialization. Economic transformation and industrialization also require efficient utilization of energy, including electricity. The cost of electricity in Uganda is not cheap; thus, there is an incentive for industries and policymakers to invest in energy efficiency measures. The fact that energy efficiency could contribute to climate and other social policy objectives is also an added advantage. Since the mid‐2000s, following a power crisis, the Government of Uganda has taken several initiatives to promote energy efficiency within the industrial sector. However, although targeted interventions delivered demonstrable gains, efforts to institutionalize industrial energy efficiency remains a challenge. In this article, we use institutional theory and the political economy approach to explore why institutionalization has been difficult to achieve in Uganda. The article pays attention to the underlying political and economic processes to observe the factors that contribute to the non‐institutionalized status. The article argues the need to build a robust regulatory framework with a deliberate intent to broaden consensus around a shared understanding of the trade‐offs and benefits associated with energy efficiency. This article is categorized under:Policy and Economics > Regional and International StrategiesSustainable Energy > Energy EfficiencySustainable Development > Emerging Economies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many African countries have experienced episodes of weak growth since 1970 through the 2000s. A fundamental intermediation gap in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) is the extremely limited financing for medium to long term lending facilities to promote growth. Thus, given the importance of financial development on economic growth, this study investigates the impact of financial development on economic growth in SSA, which is sub‐divided into low‐, middle‐ and upper‐income groupings to ascertain whether differences in income levels across countries affect the relative impact of finance on growth. The study adopts the dynamic and static panel data model to analyse 30 SSA countries using annual data over the 1985–2015 period. The findings indicate that financial depth and financial intermediation reduce per capita income growth in low‐ and middle‐income countries. However, it increases growth in upper‐income and the overall sample of SSA countries. Credit supply positively impacts growth in low‐income countries but exerts a significantly negative impact on growth in middle‐income and the overall sample of SSA countries. Financial liberalisation promotes growth in upper‐income and the overall SSA. However, it reduces growth in low‐ and middle‐income countries. Financial development and financial liberalisation are important factors that affect economic growth given different income levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Politics & Policy is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

While there has been extensive evidence provided on the varying effects of leaders' extended tenures on economic growth, political institutions and conflict, little attention in the empirical literature has been given to the determinants that may contribute to long tenures. Without being cognisant of these underlying factors, any efforts aimed at limiting tenures to progress economic development and democratic institutions will have little effect, as evidenced by several leaders' attempts to subvert constitutional laws in this regard. Using panel data analysis for sub‐Saharan African countries between 1960 and 2015, this study looks at the likely determinants (both at individual and country level) that can increase or decrease political survival. The preliminary results suggest that at an individual level, the leader's age, political career and rebel experience increase the likelihood of extended tenure, while the leader's education reduces the probability of extended tenure. At a country level, the country's wealth is likely to increase tenures, while increased conflict and strong institutions decrease a leader's tenure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of life expectancy is recognised in the development economics literature because of its increasing effects on labour productivity and economic growth in long‐run. However, no published study to date empirically examines the nonlinear relationships between globalisation, financial development, economic growth and life expectancy in sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries. Therefore, our study intends to fill this gap by using non‐parametric cointegration test and multivariate Granger causality test towards a non‐linear empirical understanding of the factors affecting the life expectancy. We consider the case of 16 sub‐Saharan African economies using annual data over the period 1970–2012. The empirical analysis indicates that financial development, globalisation and economic growth appear to have a positive impact upon life expectancy in sub‐Saharan African economies, except for Gabon and Togo. Our empirical findings may provide insightful policy implications towards improving population health conditions which are vital for promoting the productivity of labour force and long‐run economic growth in sub‐Saharan African countries. In light of these policy implications, governments should incorporate globalisation, financial development and economic growth as key economic instruments in formulating sustainable developmental policy to promote life expectancy for the people in sub‐Saharan African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Politics & Policy is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Jayne et al. make a valuable contribution to emerging empirical evidence on agricultural input subsidy programs in Africa by examining the effects of corrupt "diversion" of subsidized fertilizers on the displacement or crowding out effects of farmers' purchases of subsidized fertilizer on purchases of unsubsidized fertilizer. Unfortunately, their estimation of the effects of this on economic and financial benefit cost ratios (BCRs) is methodologically flawed and, for Malawi, is also undermined by problematic use of data. This comment presents a consistent methodology for revised estimates of both economic BCR and fiscal efficiency for the Malawi program. This shows that the underlying economic BCR of subsidized fertilizers in Malawi has been higher than estimated by Jayne et al. and is largely unaffected by diversion and displacement, but that the fiscal efficiency of investments in the program is strongly affected by diversion and displacement in program implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses trends in wheat consumption and imports in sub-Saharan Africa since 1980, and estimates the economic and demographic determinants of this rising demand for wheat. Results point to rising incomes, growing populations, and increasing women's labour-force participation as key drivers. Urban wheat-expenditure shares generally exceed rural ones and SSA's demand is met largely by imports and partly through domestic production on large-scale farms. Rising demand may therefore entail few farm-non-farm synergies and minimal prospects to spur broad-based economic development. The article concludes by discussing policy options for African countries to meet their staple food needs while also promoting pro-poor agricultural growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]