This paper examines Lionel Robbins' critical attitude towards formal empirical work from the standpoint of modern econometrics. It argues that his attitude towards empirical work rested on indefensible assumptions and that he failed to realise that the role he saw for empirical work undermined his belief in the primacy of economic theory. This matters because Robbins' attitudes are echoed in modern economics, best exemplified by the calibration methodology of Kydland and Prescott, which is vulnerable to similar criticisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
This paper explores the consequences of the introduction of the life-cycle hypothesis into an economic growth model with two classes of savers (profits earners and wage earners). Our analysis shows that the determination of the equilibrium interest rate is more flexible than in the corresponding model with constant propensities to save: the results obtained are however basically similar to those obtained in the traditional KALDOR/PASINETTI model. As a matter of fact, the rate of interest turns out to be (a) higher than the natural rate of growth, (b) determined by the behavioural parameters of the profits earners only, and (c) independent of the form of the production function. Looking at the long term properties of the model we show that interest uncertainty may have a stabilizing effect on the equilibrium growth rate of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
BUSINESS cycles, FISCAL policy, KEYNESIAN economics, ECONOMIC equilibrium, ECONOMIC development, DATA analysis
Abstract
We characterize the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in China along two related dimensions. First, we estimate the sign and size of the fiscal policy multiplier. Second, we assess whether fiscal policy is conducted pro- or counter-cyclically. To account for the challenges posed by China's vast geography, we use data at the provincial level. We find that (i) fiscal policy generally has 'Keynesian' effects, and (ii) fiscal policy is mostly conducted pro-cyclically. This means that fiscal policy is more an element of destabilization than a tool for stabilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]