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North-Eastern (NE), India and its adjoining region is one of the sixth most seismically active regions of the world. In the present investigation, the return period of earthquake and probability of occurrence inferred from Gutenberg–Richter (GR) relation was estimated for NE, India region and its vicinity. When we consider the entire NE, India region and its vicinity, it evidently suggested that the return period of earthquakes of 7 ≤ Mw ≤ 8.6 is short, which ranges from 32.73 to 162.59 years. It was observed that the earthquake occurrence from infinitesimally short interval t~0 for Mw~3.6–4 is embedded with 100% probability. The earthquakes of Mw~4.1–5.3 reach 100% in 10 years. Similarly, Mw~5.4–5.7 reaches to 100% in 20 years. Likewise, Mw~5.8–5.9, 6.0–6.1 and 6.2 reach ~100% in 30, 40 and 50 years, respectively. For large earthquakes of Mw~7.0–8.0, the probability of occurrence reaches >80% in 100 years. This observation strongly indicates that the likelihood of earthquakes occurring in the north-eastern region of India and its surrounding areas tends to increase over time. Further, the region was divided into four zones, namely Block I (26.5–28.5ºN; 89–95ºE), Block II (26.5–28.5ºN; 95–97.5ºE), Block III (23–26.5ºN; 93–97.5ºE) and Block IV (23–26.5ºN; 89–93ºE) based on seismicity and the major tectonic domains of the region. In terms of return period based on GR-relation and stochastic observations, we may conclude that the risk associated with occurrence of earthquake is highest in Block IV, followed by Block III, Block I and Block II respectively. Further, a comparison of the probabilities of earthquake return period considering seismogenic depths along with hypocentral depth data for different blocks was investigated for a comprehensive understanding of seismic occurrences over time. However, overall, the patterns and trends observed remain consistent, emphasizing the seismic activity within each block and its associated return periods. The stochastic observations and findings are elaborately accentuated in the article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although familiar with the developments in probability theory of his time, Vilfredo Pareto made little use of this tool in his writings, preferring theoretical constructions based on experimentation and observation. This article attempts to reconstruct Pareto's overall approach to probability by examining his references to the distribution of income, an economic fact that lends itself to probabilistic investigation. The result of this research shows how Pareto alludes to the application of probability to income and social groups, but leaves the task to his followers. JEL classification B31, B4, C1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is a continuation of the work published in the previous issue of the journal.1 The main approaches to constructing scenarios for long-term socio-economic development are compared, both structural and morphological. The results of the scenario are verified using the traditional structural method based on the morphological approach, and a system of mutually agreed upon scenarios for long-term socio-economic and scientific and technological development is proposed (based on the structural approach). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Denić (2018, 2019, To appear) observes that the availability of distributive inferences—for sentences with disjunction embedded in the scope of a universal quantifier—depends on the size of the domain quantified over as it relates to the number of disjuncts. Based on her observations, she argues that probabilistic considerations play a role in the computation of implicatures. In this paper we explore a different possibility. We argue for a modification of Denić's generalization, and provide an explanation that is based on intricate logical computations but is blind to probabilities. The explanation is based on the observation that when the domain size is no larger than the number of disjuncts, universal and existential alternatives are equivalent if distributive inferences are obtained. We argue that under such conditions a general ban on 'fatal competition' (Magri 2009a,b, Spector 2014) is activated, thereby predicting distributive inferences to be unavailable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, brain tumors have become one of the most common fatal diseases. Despite the existence of an important number of research studies on tumors, the proportion of research on predicting the growth of tumors remains insufficient due to the intricate nature of this research domain. Therefore, the presence of any application able to predict the growth of the tumor may have a role in eliminating the tumor by finding the appropriate treatment for it before it grows. This paper investigates tumor growth and presents a technique for tumor growth prediction based on the Discrete Time Markov Chain (DTMC) and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) algorithms. The design and development of this technique consists of a proposition of a stochastic model of tumor progression. This is followed by an extension of the mode to several cases that allow the derivation of new cases based on the study of predictive probabilities. The aim of this paper is to develop a model based on the KNN and DTMC algorithms that can classify tumors and predict the future state based on the current state of the tumor without the knowledge of the past state. In other words, all relevant information about the past and the present that would be useful in making predictions is available in the current state. In terms of performance evaluation metrics, the results show that the proposed method exceeds the existing methods with 97.65% accuracy, 71.65% specificity and 99.087% sensitivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rising cases of floods and the onset of drought in different parts of Nigeria require urgent attention particularly because Nigeria accommodates the largest population in Africa, hence any negative climate impact on it can easily ripple into other African regions. To understand the risk factors that drive these extreme events, we study the bivariate extreme cases of monthly precipitation and temperature observations over a period of 116 years (1901–2016). This is the first paper providing bivariate extreme value analysis of data in Nigeria. The mean rainfall and temperature variables exhibit interrelationships such as dry-cold and wet-cold associations. We further investigate whether these relationships are present at the tails by making use of the annual minimum rainfall-annual minimum temperature and annual maximum rainfall-annual minimum temperature pairs. Their extreme dependence structures are also quantified by applying the parametric bivariate extreme value models. Our results show that the compound extremes of dry-cold and wet-cold conditions exhibit a zero to weak extreme dependence at varying quantile levels. A much stronger dependence structure is present between the annual maximum rain and the total volume of rainfall. By considering both independent and dependent probability assumptions, we show that the former may lead to an underestimation of the risks associated with existing climatic hazards. The implications of these results are highlighted throughout the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major hypothesis about conditionals is the Equation in which the probability of a conditional equals the corresponding conditional probability: p(if A then C) = p(C|A). Probabilistic theories often treat it as axiomatic, whereas it follows from the meanings of conditionals in the theory of mental models. In this theory, intuitive models (system 1) do not represent what is false, and so produce errors in estimates of p(if A then C), yielding instead p(A & C). Deliberative models (system 2) are normative, and yield the proportion of cases of A in which C holds, i.e., the Equation. Intuitive estimates of the probability of a conditional about unique events: If covid-19 disappears in the USA, then Biden will run for a second term, together with those of each of its clauses, are liable to yield joint probability distributions that sum to over 100%. The error, which is inconsistent with the probability calculus, is massive when participants estimate the joint probabilities of conditionals with each of the different possibilities to which they refer. This result and others under review corroborate the model theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mental model theory postulates that the meanings of conditionals are based on possibilities. Indicative conditionals—such as "If he is injured tomorrow, then he will take some leave"—have a factual interpretation that can be paraphrased as It is possible, and remains so, that he is injured tomorrow, and in that case certain that he takes some leave. Subjunctive conditionals, such as, "If he were injured tomorrow, then he would take some leave," have a prefactual interpretation that has the same paraphrase. But when context makes clear that his injury will not occur, the subjunctive has a counterfactual paraphrase, with the first clause: It was once possible, but does not remain so, that he will be injured tomorrow. Three experiments corroborated these predictions for participants' selections of paraphrases in their native Spanish, for epistemic and deontic conditionals, for those referring to past and to future events, and for those with then clauses referring to what may or must happen. These results are contrary to normal modal logics. They are also contrary to theories based on probabilities, which are inapplicable to deontic conditionals, such as, "If you have a ticket, then you must enter the show." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to its biodiversity, Ecuador is apt for the cultivation of Fine Aroma cocoa, which is one of the most desired cocoa varieties by top chocolatiers and chocolate manufacturers worldwide. Along with Fine Aroma cocoa, a cloned variety known as CCN51 is also produced. However, since 2011, the government of Ecuador has initiated a national rehabilitation plan aimed at improving Fine Aroma cocoa yields, quality, certification, and commercialization. Certified cocoa production obtains higher margins via the distinction of cocoa varieties and the implementation of eco-friendly and/or organic production techniques. The revision of technical data from a sample of over 3000 cocoa producers in the Province of Guayas (one of the most important cocoa producing provinces in Ecuador) is used to explore how certified cocoa production, and certified organic cocoa production in particular is influenced by agronomic practices, market, and credit access. The difference between organic certification and other forms of certification is relevant to understand potential obstacles faced by Fine Aroma cocoa producers aiming for organic certification in Ecuador. The findings illustrate that governmental support of specific agronomic practices such as pruning is of key relevance for certified cocoa production, while simultaneously indicating that certified organic production follows a more regulated protocol regarding selected input usage. The interlinkages between certified cocoa production (in general and organic in particular) and pruning are examined using seemingly unrelated bivariate probit regression analyses that also allows identifying the relevance of other socio-economic and institutional traits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose in the present work a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of chemical reactions occurring in Plasma Enhanced Chemical Vapor Deposition (PECVD) reactor during the a-Si:H growth. From a microscopic view of chemical reactions, this MCS allowed to obtain macroscopic results. In gas phase, important reactions have been identified that contribute to the production of H, SiH2 and SiH3. We found that SiH4 →SiH2 + 2H is the dominant silane electron-impact dissociation. We found that the reaction SiH4 + H →SiH3 + H2 plays a central role in the production of SiH3 radicals. At the surface, the microscopic view allowed us to calculate site and surface reaction probabilities of SiH3 radicals. Results at macroscopic level were consistent with other works. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I critically evaluate Reisman and Forber’s (Philos Sci 72(5):1113-1123, 2005) arguments that drift and natural selection are population-level causes of evolution based on what they call the manipulation condition. Although I agree that this condition is an important step for identifying causes for evolutionary change, it is insufficient. Following Woodward, I argue that the invariance of a relationship is another crucial parameter to take into consideration for causal explanations. Starting from Reisman and Forber’s example on drift and after having briefly presented the criterion of invariance, I show that once both the manipulation condition and the criterion of invariance are taken into account, drift, in this example, should better be understood as an individual-level rather than a population-level cause. Later, I concede that it is legitimate to interpret natural selection and drift as population-level causes when they rely on genuinely indeterministic events and some cases of frequency-dependent selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The past 12 years have seen significant steps forward in the science and practice of coastal flood analysis. This paper aims to recount and critically assess these advances, while helping identify next steps for the field. This paper then focuses on a key problem, connecting the probabilistic characterization of flood hazards to their physical mechanisms. Our investigation into the effects of natural structure on the probabilities of storm surges shows that several different types of spatial-, temporal-, and process-related organizations affect key assumptions made in many of the methods used to estimate these probabilities. Following a brief introduction to general historical methods, we analyze the two joint probability methods used in most tropical cyclone hazard and risk studies today: the surface response function and Bayesian quadrature. A major difference between these two methods is that the response function creates continuous surfaces, which can be interpolated or extrapolated on a fine scale if necessary, and the Bayesian quadrature optimizes a set of probability masses, which cannot be directly interpolated or extrapolated. Several examples are given here showing significant impacts related to natural structure that should not be neglected in hazard and risk assessment for tropical cyclones including: (1) differences between omnidirectional sampling and directional-dependent sampling of storms in near coastal areas; (2) the impact of surge probability discontinuities on the treatment of epistemic uncertainty; (3) the ability to reduce aleatory uncertainty when sampling over larger spatial domains; and (4) the need to quantify trade-offs between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in long-term stochastic sampling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over decades, the planning of flood management was based on a safety-oriented approach. A design flood was estimated by probabilistic means to specify the limit up to which a flood should be controlled completely by technical measures. A case of failure was expected only in such cases where the design flood is overtopped. As design floods were specified by very small probabilities, the risk of a flood beyond the design flood was seen as negligible. Devastating flood events all over Europe raised the public awareness of remaining flood risks in the last two decades. Risk management became a political task in the EU. According to the European Flood Directive geographical areas, which could be flooded 'with a low probability or under extreme event scenarios', have to be specified. The combination of 'low probability' and 'extreme event scenarios' demonstrates the problem of modern flood management. The existing probabilistic tools are not sufficient to specify the risks of failures, which result from critical combinations of multiple characteristics of hydrological loads. Scenarios are one option to specify them, but their probabilities stay unknown. Multivariate statistics could offer a way to fill this gap, but some problems of their practical application are still unresolved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drift is often characterized in statistical terms. Yet such a purely statistical characterization is ambiguous for it can accept multiple physical interpretations. Because of this ambiguity it is important to distinguish what sorts of processes can lead to this statistical phenomenon. After presenting a physical interpretation of drift originating from the most popular interpretation of fitness, namely the propensity interpretation, I propose a different one starting from an analysis of the concept of drift made by Godfrey-Smith. Further on, I show how my interpretation relates to previous attempts to make sense of the notion of expected value in deterministic setups. The upshot of my analysis is a physical conception of drift that is compatible with both a deterministic and indeterministic world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We studied the effects of probabilistic cues, i.e., of information of limited certainty, in the context of an action task (GL: grip-lift) and of a perceptual task (WP: weight perception). Normal subjects (n = 22) saw four different probabilistic visual cues, each of which announced the likely weight of an object. In the GL task, the object was grasped and lifted with a pinch grip, and the peak force rates indicated that the grip and load forces were scaled predictively according to the probabilistic information. The WP task provided the expected heaviness related to each probabilistic cue; the participants gradually adjusted the object's weight until its heaviness matched the expected weight for a given cue. Subjects were randomly assigned to two groups: one started with the GL task and the other one with the WP task. The four different probabilistic cues influenced weight adjustments in the WP task and peak force rates in the GL task in a similar manner. The interpretation and utilization of the probabilistic information was critically influenced by the initial task. Participants who started with the WP task classified the four probabilistic cues into four distinct categories and applied these categories to the subsequent GL task. On the other side, participants who started with the GL task applied three distinct categories to the four cues and retained this classification in the following WP task. The initial strategy, once established, determined the way how the probabilistic information was interpreted and implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Single-value failure temperatures for fire loss of electrical cable functionality have been the norm for Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessments since the publication in 2005 of NUREG/CR-6850. If the calculated exposure temperature matches or exceeds the cable failure temperature, electrical failure is always assumed; if not, no failure is assumed. While this can be relaxed somewhat if a distribution for the exposure temperature is estimated, use of a distribution on the cable failure temperature itself more readily enables such relaxation and, therefore, a more realistic assessment. This paper develops probability distributions for different generic cable types (based on insulation) using data from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission tests. Results indicate mean failure temperatures considerably higher than those used deterministically, 252°C, 421°C and 383°C, respectively for thermoplastic, thermoset and Kerite-FR. This suggests considerable relaxation from the conservatism inherent using the deterministic failure temperatures could be achieved. The paper then postulates two hypothetical distributions on the exposure temperature from applying a fire phenomenological model in a statistical way to estimate the possible relaxation using the distributed cable failure temperatures to enhance the realism of the assessment. Examples show that use of probabilistically-distributed cable failure temperatures (in conjunction with similar for exposure temperatures) can reduce the probability of electrical failure for a normally-distributed exposure temperature with a mean of 350°C and standard deviation of 58.3°C by factors of approximately three and eight for Kerite-FR and thermoset cables, respectively. The reduction would be less pronounced for thermoplastic cables, although larger reductions would be possible here as well for lower exposure temperatures (e.g., a factor of two). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bayes Rule specifies how probabilities over parameters should be updated given any kind of information. But in some cases, the kind of information provided by both simulation and physical experiments is information on how certain output parameters may change when other input parameters are changed. There are three different approaches to this problem, one of which leads to the Garbage-In/Garbage-Out Paradox, the second of which (Bayesian synthesis) violates the Borel Paradox, and the third of which (Bayesian melding) is a supra-Bayesian heuristic. This paper shows how to derive a fully Bayesian formula which avoids the Garbage-In/Garbage-Out and Borel Paradoxes. We also compare a Laplacian approximation of this formula with Bayesian synthesis and Bayesian melding and find that the Bayesian formula sometimes coincides with the Bayesian melding solution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to infinitism, beliefs can be justified by an infinite chain of reasons. So far, infinitism has rarely been taken seriously and often even dismissed as inconsistent. However, Peijnenburg and Atkinson have recently argued that beliefs can indeed be justified by an infinite chain of reasons, if justification is understood probabilistically. In the following, I will discuss the formal result that has led to this conclusion. I will then introduce three probabilistic explications of justification and examine to which extent they support Peijnenburg's and Atkinson's claim. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to all-luck egalitarianism, the differential distributive effects of both brute luck, which defines the outcome of risks which are not deliberately taken, and option luck, which defines the outcome of deliberate gambles, are unjust. Exactly how to correct the effects of option luck is, however, a complex issue. This article argues that (a) option luck should be neutralized not just by correcting luck among gamblers, but among the community as a whole, because it would be unfair for gamblers as a group to be disadvantaged relative to non-gamblers by bad option luck; (b) individuals should receive the warranted expected results of their gambles, except insofar as individuals blamelessly lacked the ability to ascertain which expectations were warranted; and (c) where societal resources are insufficient to deliver expected results to gamblers, gamblers should receive a lesser distributive share which is in proportion to the expected results. Where all-luck egalitarianism is understood in this way, it allows risk-takers to impose externalities on non-risk-takers, which seems counterintuitive. This may, however, be an advantage as it provides a luck egalitarian rationale for assisting 'negligent victims'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A durable asset is sold in a sealed-bid first price auction. The seller sets an undisclosed reservation price. The seller has no prior information respecting the private valuations of the bidders. If no bid exceeds the reservation price, the asset is sequentially auctioned until it is sold. A rational seller will design an intertemporal series of reservation prices that maximize the discounted value of the transaction price. To accomplish this, the seller uses the history of unsuccessful bids to estimate the probability density functions governing the maximum bids at each hypothetical future auction date. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been argued that dual process theories are not consistent with Oaksford and Chater's probabilistic approach to human reasoning (Oaksford and Chater in Psychol Rev 101:608-631, , ; Oaksford et al. ), which has been characterised as a 'single-level probabilistic treatment[s]' (Evans ). In this paper, it is argued that this characterisation conflates levels of computational explanation. The probabilistic approach is a computational level theory which is consistent with theories of general cognitive architecture that invoke a WM system and an LTM system. That is, it is a single function dual process theory which is consistent with dual process theories like Evans' () that use probability logic (Adams ) as an account of analytic processes. This approach contrasts with dual process theories which propose an analytic system that respects standard binary truth functional logic (Heit and Rotello in J Exp Psychol Learn 36:805-812, ; Klauer et al. in J Exp Psychol Learn 36:298-323, ; Rips in Psychol Sci 12:29-134, , ; Stanovich in Behav Brain Sci 23:645-726, , ). The problems noted for this latter approach by both Evans Psychol Bull 128:978-996, (, ) and Oaksford and Chater (Mind Lang 6:1-38, , , ) due to the defeasibility of everyday reasoning are rehearsed. Oaksford and Chater's () dual systems implementation of their probabilistic approach is then outlined and its implications discussed. In particular, the nature of cognitive decoupling operations are discussed and a Panglossian probabilistic position developed that can explain both modal and non-modal responses and correlations with IQ in reasoning tasks. It is concluded that a single function probabilistic approach is as compatible with the evidence supporting a dual systems theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the psychology of reasoning has been undergoing a paradigm shift, with general Bayesian, probabilistic approaches replacing the older, much more restricted binary logic paradigm. At the same time, dual processing theories have been gaining influence. We argue that these developments should be integrated and moreover that such integration is already underway. The new reasoning paradigm should be grounded in dual processing for its algorithmic level of analysis just as it uses Bayesian theory for its computational level of analysis. Moreover, we propose that, within the new paradigm, these levels of analysis reflect on each other. Bayesianism suggests a specific theoretical understanding of dual processing. Just as importantly, the duality in processing carries over to duality in function; although both types of processes compute degrees of belief, they generate different functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a fuzzy multi-person decision making model with fuzzy probabilistic information. For doing so, we present the fuzzy probabilistic ordered weighted averaging (FPOWA) operator. It is an aggregation operator that unifies the fuzzy probabilistic aggregation and the fuzzy OWA (FOWA) operator in the same formulation considering the degree of importance that each concept has in the analysis. We study its applicability and we see that it is very broad because all the previous studies that use the probability or the OWA operator can be revised and extended with this new approach. We focus on a multi-person decision making problem that unifies risk and uncertain environments in the same formulation. We implement this approach in a political management problem regarding the selection of fiscal policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response mode bias, in which subjects exhibit different risk attitudes when assessing certainty equivalents versus indifference probabilities, is a well-known phenomenon in the assessment of utility functions. In this empirical study, we develop and apply a cardinal measure of risk attitudes to analyze not only the existence, but also the strength of this phenomenon. Since probability levels involved in decision problems are already known to have a strong impact on behavior, we use this approach to study the impact of probabilities on the extent of the response mode bias. We find that the direction in which probabilities influence measured risk aversion is the opposite in the certainty equivalence (CE) method versus in the probability equivalence (PE) method. Utilizing the CE elicitation approach leads to an increase of risk seeking for gambles involving high probabilities. For the PE method, subjects tend to behave risk averse with gambles of high probabilities. This behavior is reversed in the gain domain. This “tailwhip” effect is consistently replicated in several experiments, involving both loss and gain domains of lotteries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Starting from Max Weber’s definitions of power we discuss the meaning of his concept Chance and its relationships to the probabilistic notions that play a central role in definitions of indices of measuring voting power. Using Martin Hollis’s distinction between two models of man—plastic and autonomous—we argue that the common measures of voting power when interpreted in terms of probabilities seem to be in better conformity with the model of plastic man than with the model of autonomous man. The paper elaborates on the probability interpretation with applications to the modelling of power measures with a priori unions and to the concept of “real voting power” based on relative frequencies of historical events. Power as potential—which in our view is what Weber very likely meant—remains an elusive concept, but one that should be amenable to game-theoretic analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ontology of decision theory has been subject to considerable debate in the past, and discussion of just how we ought to view decision problems has revealed more than one interesting problem, as well as suggested some novel modifications of classical decision theory. In this paper it will be argued that Bayesian, or evidential, decision-theoretic characterizations of decision situations fail to adequately account for knowledge concerning the causal connections between acts, states, and outcomes in decision situations, and so they are incomplete. Second, it will be argues that when we attempt to incorporate the knowledge of such causal connections into Bayesian decision theory, a substantial technical problem arises for which there is no currently available solution that does not suffer from some damning objection or other. From a broader perspective, this then throws into question the use of decision theory as a model of human or machine planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show how the tensor product for a 2×2 game with Knightian uncertainty can be calculated. We discuss also a specific example in which we derive the Nash equilibria. The discussion is an application of game theory in terms of tensor products of capacities, introduced in the paper by Kozhan and Zarichnyi (Econ Theory, 2007, Forthcoming). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent functional neuroimaging and lesion studies demonstrate the involvement of the orbitofrontal/ventromedial prefrontal cortex as a key structure in decision making processes. This region seems to be particularly crucial when contingencies between options and consequences are unknown but have to be learned by the use of feedback following previous decisions (decision making under ambiguity). However, little is known about the neural correlates of decision making under risk conditions in which information about probabilities and potential outcomes is given. In the present study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging to measure blood-oxygenation-level-dependent (BOLD) responses in 12 subjects during a decision making task. This task provided explicit information about probabilities and associated potential incentives. The responses were compared to BOLD signals in a control condition without information about incentives. In contrast to previous decision making studies, we completely removed the outcome phase following a decision to exclude the potential influence of feedback previously received on current decisions. The results indicate that the integration of information about probabilities and incentives leads to activations within the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, the posterior parietal lobe, the anterior cingulate and the right lingual gyrus. We assume that this pattern of activation is due to the involvement of executive functions, conflict detection mechanisms and arithmetic operations during the deliberation phase of decisional processes that are based on explicit information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In his paper, “Should the Numbers Count?" John Taurek imagines that we are in a position such that we can either save a group of five people, or we can save one individual, David. We cannot save David and the five. This is because they each require a life-saving drug. However, David needs all of the drug if he is to survive, while the other five need only a fifth each. Typically, people have argued as if there was a choice to be made: either numbers matter, in which case we should save the greater number, or numbers don't matter, but rather there is moral value in giving each person an equal chance of survival, and therefore we should toss a coin. My claim is that we do not have to make a choice in this way. Rather, numbers do matter, but it doesn't follow that we should always save the greater number. And likewise, there is moral value in giving each person an equal chance of survival, but it doesn't follow that we should always toss a coin. In addition, I argue that a similar approach can be applied to situations in which we can save one person or another, but the chances of success are different. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The familiar “modulus squared” form of all quantum mechanical probabilities is derived from an assumption of equal a priori probabilities concerning the final states available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attempts to teach statistical thinking using corrective feedback or a ``rule-training'' approach have been only moderately successful. A new training approach is proposed which relies on the assumption that the human mind is naturally equipped to solve many statistical tasks in which the relevant information is presented in terms of absolute frequencies instead of probabilities. In an investigation of this approach, people were trained to solve tasks involving conjunctive and conditional probabilities using a frequency grid to represent probability information. It is suggested that learning by doing, whose importance was largely neglected in prior training studies, has played a major role in the current training. Study 1 showed that training that combines external pictorial representations and learning by doing has a large and lasting effect on how well people can solve conjunctive probability tasks. A ceiling effect prevented comparison of the frequency grid and a conventional pictorial representation (Venn diagrams) with respect to effectiveness. However, the grid representation was found to be more effective in Study 2, which dealt with the more difficult topic of conditional probabilities. These results suggest methods to optimize the teaching of statistical thinking and the presentation of statistical information in the media. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Backward transitions in the analysis of oxygen production under flashing light were introduced by Packham et al., 1988, Photosynth. Res. 15: 221-232. In order to take backward transitions into account, a new method of analysis is presented: the 'eigenvalue method'. This method is based on the recurrence relation of oxygen production with four coefficients (also known as the four 'sigma' coefficients). It shows less susceptibility to round-off errors than other methods and permits the computation of double-hits directly from the coefficients, which was not possible before. With it we discovered that the inconsistent behaviour of double-hits observed previously under low flash intensities or low flash frequencies was mainly due to the inclusion of the backward transitions into the double-hit probability. In these conditions backward transitions seemed to be due either to the combination of an S-state deactivation and a miss, or to two S-state deactivations and a single-hit. In the presence of 3-(3, 4-Dichlorophenyl)-1, 1-dimethylurea (DCMU), the previous methods of 'sigma' analysis failed. In contrast, the new method resolved all four S-state probabilities; thus it has the further advantage of being more 'robust' (robustness being defined as the ability to yield a meaningful answer under difficult conditions). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reference priors for a balanced random effects model with its natural parameter setting were derived by Berger and Bernado (1992a). There are many different priors corresponding to different ordered groupings. The behavior of the posterior inferences for the between variance component in the model is studied for various reference priors. Two frequentist approaches are used to justify appropriate reference priors. It is found that, for a given parameter of interest, different frequentist perspectives may result in selecting different reference priors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

User models play a critical role in robust plan recognition by controlling ambiguity. They allow an observer to prefer one plan explanation over another, and they provide a means of measuring the believability of misconceptions when the user's plan is flawed. This paper discusses the motivation for including a user model in robust plan recognition, and shows how a probabilistic interpretation offers a practical means of incorporating a user model into the plan recognition process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Personalized medicine promises to represent a transformation in clinical care that will be ushered in by the unprecedented growth and development in the field of human genetics. Further examination of the scientific foundations of this new hope reveals a great number of challenges that lie ahead. While basic science research feverishly races to produce solutions, we continue to wait for the translation of deliverables. Products that have and will come to market may leave our clinical communities and systems exposed and unprepared. At each step, from basic science research to infrastructure development, a great deal of creativity and investment are required before the arsenal of more personalized tools can be assimilated into our current models of health care. This commentary seeks to share perspectives on the current status of personalized medicine from the vantage point of several potential investors, and integrate them into a common set of goals and understanding. We conclude that the stylized model of personalized medicine is more akin to a marketing tool than a literal prediction of the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]