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This paper investigates the association between life insurers' voluntary disclosure of embedded value (EV), an unregulated market-driven fair value measure, and analyst forecast accuracy and dispersion. EV is an estimate of the present value of future net cash flows from in-force life insurance business. Advocates of this disclosure believe that EV is a better measure of economic performance than traditional GAAP measures. Others argue that corporate management has discretion in estimating and reporting EV. Further, analysts may have access to information that allows the development of possibly more accurate estimation metrics in the absence of EV disclosure. It is then an empirical issue to determine whether EV disclosure has any incremental effect on analysts' forecast properties. Using a multi-country setting, we find that EV disclosure is positively associated with analysts' earnings forecast accuracy and negatively related to forecast dispersion. This result is consistent with the alternative hypothesis that disclosure of EV provides a richer information set that enriches analysts' forecasts beyond their own in-house developed surrogates. As guidance for insurance accounting and disclosure evolves, our findings support the value of continuing to provide EV information to the public. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oil has played a determinant role in the economic development of Sudan and South Sudan before and after their separation. The introduction of oil into the Sudanese economy in 1999 has been associated with many challenges, especially those related to export diversification, and institutional quality. Oil dependency increased with the growth of oil share in total exports. Therefore, the secession of South Sudan in 2011 represents a great shock to both economies. This event creates a situation in which the new country experienced a sudden influx of oil revenues. At the same time, the parent country witnessed a sudden loss of 70% of its proven oil reserves. This makes the case of Sudan unique and provides a very rare opportunity for macroeconomists to address the impacts of this shock on both economies. This paper uses the recent secondary data of both counties to analyze and compare the impact of oil revenues transfer on Sudan and South Sudan's economies in the post-secession period. The conclusion of this paper shows that oil loss has created incentives for better economic performance in Sudan. Reciprocally, South Sudan experiences a premature oil dependence that led to export concentration, institutional degradation, and macroeconomic instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although references to an urban resurgence are pervasive, on average, the share of regional jobs found in central business district (CBD) areas has fallen since the 1990s. Yet, this fact masks great variation in the performance of CBD economies. In several metropolitan regions, the share of jobs found in CBD areas increased over this period. This paper seeks to understand the factors that explain such variation. Relying on a panel of metropolitan regions for the period 1995 to 2019, the paper finds that, as a regional economy increasingly comprises tasks that are more cognitive in nature, the share of its jobs found in CBD areas increases. Although the "great divergence" has been linked to an increasing dispersion of incomes, health care outcomes, and cultural identities among regions, the paper's findings suggest it may also be associated with divergent economic performance among CBD areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

City deals – place-based agreements between central and local state actors – are an increasingly common intervention for supporting economic performance in urban areas. This paper presents empirical evidence on the effectiveness of city deals by estimating the impact of the UK's City Deals scheme on rates of economic growth, productivity and job creation across England between 2010 and 2019. Because the City Deals were introduced in two waves, we estimate its effects using a differences-in-differences (DiD) with multiple time periods (MTPs) approach. Our DiD estimates indicate that, overall, the City Deals were associated with improvements in local economic performance, but that the first wave of city deals resulted in gains of around 2.5% to 3% that were not observed in the second wave. These results suggest that city deals are most effective when appropriate institutional structures are in place and highlight the value of MTP approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper will compare and contrast Visegrád and Southeast European mobility towards (and away from) the European Union (EU) ideal of cohesion, in the process investigating conflicting "core" and "peripheral" assertions of "Europeanness." Though the Visegrád states have exceeded economic expectations, they have to varying degrees stood in opposition to the values of the EU's self-professed "European identity," with Hungary and Poland in particular demonstrating increasing illiberalism. Meanwhile, in Southeast Europe, lacklustre economic performance has tended to contrast with increasingly liberal democratic rule and strong popular support for the EU "project." The EU's cohesion strategy has prioritized economic convergence and, ultimately, this has meant that budgetary considerations, and political rhetoric and scrutiny, have often favoured the rebellious but economically resurgent Visegrád states over the weaker economies of a more compliant Southeast Europe. The EU's integration strategy of constructing "identity hegemony" depends upon both economic and socio-political convergence. This paper questions the congruence of these focuses, given the discriminatory application of integration incentives and the persistence of Orientalism/Balkanism in West European rhetoric. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to identify and categorize the factors influencing consumer goods' value into ecological and economic dimensions and subsequently compare them. The analysis employs the Allegro Reviews (AR) dataset, comprising post-purchase product reviews, with a focus on a sample of 1,400 randomly selected reviews from a pool of 10,615 comments. Through this examination, distinct influencing factors are identified, categorized as either ecological or economic, and their frequency of reference in online reviews was compared. The research findings show that consumers consistently address economic dimensions in their reviews. Notably, emphasis is placed on goods' quality, pricing, and the price-quality relationship. On the other hand, ecological aspects receive limited attention in reviews, suggesting their lesser significance to consumers compared to economic considerations. This study's implications for theory and practice indicate that companies should prioritize economic aspects in their value creation endeavors, relegating ecological factors to a secondary role. However, from a global standpoint, enterprises must incorporate ecological dimensions during the value creation process to avert environmental degradation, which could otherwise undermine overall societal quality of life. In terms of originality and value, this research diverges from typical consumer choice studies that rely on questionnaires. Instead, it analyzes actual post-purchase product reviews, providing insights into tangible elements contributing to goods' value, thus bypassing reliance on mere declarations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solitude is a rising phenomenon in the western world. The share of people affected by solitude has been rising for some time and the Covid-19 pandemic has further brought this trend to the fore. Yet, we know next to nothing about the aggregate subnational economic impact of the rise in solitude. In this paper, we analyse the consequences of solitude on regional economic performance across Europe, distinguishing between two of its key dimensions: alone living, proxied by the regional share of single-person households and loneliness, proxied by the aggregate share of social interactions. We find that solitude has important implications for economic development, but that these go in different directions. While alone living is a substantial driver of economic growth across European regions, high shares of lonely people undermine it. The connection of loneliness with economic growth is, however, dependent on the frequency of in-person meetings, with large shares of the population meeting others socially on a weekly basis, alongside a small percentage of people who never meet others, yielding the best economic returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the connection between measures of a U.S. metropolitan area's new urban crisis (i.e., unaffordable housing, economic inequality, and residential segregation) and its year-over-year employment change in the period immediately before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results show that measures of the new urban crisis did not generally have a statistically significant association with year-over-year employment change between January and September of 2020, which captures the period before COVID-19 and the beginning of the pandemic (e.g., shutdown). The severity of a region's economic segregation and inequality, however, are associated with higher rates of employment decline in the early recovery months of October to December of 2020. These findings suggest that places that rate worse for indicators of the new urban crisis were less able to recover from the negative economic shocks related to COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why some cities have been able to sustain economic growth more than others, and how particular technological or sectoral break points shift a city's economic performance favourably (or unfavourably), present ongoing conundrums. Whilst single factor accounts – such as the skilled city and the creative city – have the appeal of analytical parsimony, economic geographers suggest that a multiplicity of structures, processes and events typically sit behind how growth originates and is subsequently shaped. Given such complexity, how can we develop appropriate approaches to theorising causality within urban economic systems? This paper presents the case that critical realism may perform a useful ground-clearing role. With a layered ontology at its core, coupled with recent literature providing greater guidance for empirical application, it is argued that critical realism may present a complementary explanatory perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After years of relative neglect, renewed attention has been paid to smaller, "ordinary" cities. The distinctiveness of these cities is often found in their economic development paths, which, can encompass their roles in international trade. Many locations have included exports as part of their economic growth strategies, yet the effectiveness of export strategies varies by location. This is in addition to varying components of exports for these cities, including the destination geographies and reliance on particular markets. In order to contribute to the growing literature on ordinary cities, this paper examines the export performance of smaller metropolitan areas across the southern United States. In recent decades, the South has been a region marked by robust economic performance, both overall and in terms of exporting; the region's smaller cities are an especially notable case in terms of export performance and structure. While goods-related exports from the smaller cities across this region have tended to trend upward, export performance has been spatially uneven, with export markets and key export industries varying widely. The article concludes with an exploration and discussion of possible export trajectories for these urban areas in the post-pandemic and potentially, post-globalization, environments, particularly in terms of development-related outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A rapidly growing body of research suggests that modern economies find themselves at existential crossroads: both prosperity and survival are a function of consumption-fueled economic growth. Prosperity seemingly depends on it; survival is made increasingly impossible by it. Economists measure economic growth by what is generally recognized as a deeply flawed yet still hegemonic economic performance indicator—GDP. This paper suggests that growth based in increased consumption is in need of reconceptualization no matter what the measure, and invites the research community of the Journal of Consumer Culture to investigate what such a research agenda might look like. Economic logic itself, this essay argues, needs to be re-embedded in science, rather than operate as a self-referential logic outside of natural boundaries. Biophysical limits force us to question economic growth as a goal. A wide range of social pathologies, furthermore, from inequality to stress to loneliness, raise deep questions about the desirability of growth. The essay is a self-conscious provocation to the discipline of economics: there is an emerging need to move beyond a conceptualization of the economy as a self-contained system of monetary market exchanges defining the relations between production, distribution, and consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a new methodological approach arising from an idea first presented in Burgsthaler and Dichev (1997) for detecting income smoothing. The proposed test does not rely on specific distributional assumptions, as is the case in previous studies, and may be applied to small databases. The procedure could be particularly useful in analyzing economic activities where significant economic power is concentrated in a small number of firms. The proposed methodology is applied to the case of Spanish Savings Banks during the period 1993--2001. It is revealed that these institutions would appear to be interested in reporting a consistently stable and detectable growth rate. Income smoothing is essentially applied to avoid both small earnings decreases and very small earnings increases. Income smoothing is revealed in changes in scaled pretax earnings and in scaled surplus (net earnings) for the year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, the circular economy is emerging as a strategy for sustainable development. What is important in promoting the circular economy is to assess its current level and take measures for assessment. This paper discusses some methodological issues in comparing and assessing the efforts for the circular economy at the international level. To this end, the authors explain the theoretical premise related to the assessment of efforts for the circular economy, establish an indicator system for assessing the efforts for the circular economy, and suggest a method for comprehensively assessing the efforts for the circular economy by country. The conclusions are that (a) the comparative evaluation of activities related to the circular economy by country requires a unified standard or category that can cover these activities, including all factors that meet sustainable development; the outcome, process, and guarantee of the circular economy, and this can be the circular economy effort and (b) the circular economy effort of a given country must synthetically be assessed by using the indicators capable of showing all aspects. These conclusions may contribute to establishing a new theoretical foundation that can include various aspects of the circular economy activities and to setting a practical and methodological foundation for evaluating each country's various activities related to the circular economy at the international level and can serve as a policy basis for identifying the weak and strong aspects of circular economy activities at the domestic or international level and establishing technological and economic measures to strengthen the weak aspects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important issue in economic geography is the link between higher education institutions and economic performance at local level. This paper exploits some aspects of the university funding system in Italy to estimate the effects of hosting higher education institutions on local productivity and furthermore tests whether local institutions have a moderating role in this relationship. The findings firstly confirm that university performance positively affects local economies. Secondly, we argue that an important channel linking universities to greater economic activity is the administrative capacity of local governments to create strong social and economic structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examined finance-growth nexus in the finance industry and the influencing factors of economic indicators which deliberate on the performance of the Solow Growth model to prove the actuality of financial development (FD) inside the economic growth (EG) model, based on the regional data from 1980 to 2017 in Africa. We applied the econometric method of GMM style panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) and panel quantile regression (PQR). With the optimal finance-growth outcome, the review shows that the economic indicators influence the finance-growth nexus. The quantile results show that high economic indicators help to strengthen the finance-growth nexus, whereas low economic indicators hinder it. The GMM style PVAR results present a mixed effect in terms of the connection and marginal significance, indicating that FD has a varied impact on economic growth. Last, the granger causality results show a two-way causal association amid finance-growth in Western, Central, Eastern, and Southern African economies and a unidirectional causal link of finance-growth in Northern Africa. The policy conclusion is that to gain the long-term economic benefits of FD, African countries should strive for low and steady economic stability. To attain the required economic stability, it may be important to use suitable fiscal and monetary policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Creativity is a commonly used word in education circles, yet it is also seen as something that is being undermined by contemporary agendas of standards, testing and an increasingly strong focus on core subjects that are used as indicators of school performance, which are impacting the work of teachers. This paper starts from Ball’s 2006 paper ‘The Teacher’s Soul and the Terrors of Performativity’ and argues the importance of developing strong senses of identity and agency in student teachers as part of the teacher’s ‘soul’, as a positive response to the pressures, or ‘terrors’ of a performative, standards based agenda. Having discussed the background of creativity and performativity, the relationship between identity, agency and creativity is explored through the lenses of three theoretical perspectives; Bourdieu and his idea of habitus; Foucault and his ideas about power, discipline and subjectivity; Lacan and Ruti and perspectives from psycho-analysis, foregrounding the notion of ‘lack’. In the discussion of this sequence of perspectives, the argument is for a trajectory in which the view of the human subject becomes less deterministic and more agentic. The paper is framed within a virtues ethic and in applying Noddings’ (2003) argument, creativity can be seen not so much as a virtue in itself, but the confident and agentic working out of creativity in practice allows educators to work virtuously within a performative culture and with an ‘ethical commitment’ to creativity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several previous studies have explored the relationship between trust and socio-economic conditions but do not attempt to examine channels through which the relation operates. In this paper, we examine how political fractionalization mitigates the positive relationship between trust institutions and national economic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using Round 7 data of Afrobarometer in over 1000 districts in 34 countries, we find that trust institutions positively and significantly affect economic performance. Nevertheless, the positive effect is attenuated in districts with a high level of political diversity. More specifically, a higher level of trust is associated with lower economic performance at a higher level of political fractionalization and vice versa, with a steady linear decrease of the estimated coefficients. Policy implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigated whether countries should restrict remittance outflows by analysing their impact on economic performance using Ivorian data ranged from 1975 to 2016. An ARDL model was used to assess both short and long-run relationships between remittance outflows and per capita GDP. The findings suggest a long-run and nonlinear relationship between these variables. Moreover, remittance outflows positively and significantly impact economic performance. We found a turning point at $ 379.485 million, beyond which each dollar remitted, will have a negative effect on economic performance. Given the current level of remittance outflows, actions towards restriction should be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I examine the development and current situation of the woollen knitwear and woven fabric industry in the Scottish Borders. The paper opens with a brief theoretical exposition of the logic and dynamics of industrial clusters. An overview of the consolidation of the industry as a multifaceted spatial cluster or agglomeration in the 19th century is presented. I then describe changes in the locational structure and productive capacities of the industry over the last several decades. I provide a diagnosis of the industry's decline in recent years together with an assessment of relevant stocks of region-based resources and capabilities. I argue that the Scottish Borders region lacks many of the pooled competitive advantages typically found in successful clusters but that carefully modulated policy could do much to improve local economic performance in the future. A number of specific policy guidelines focussed on inter-industrial relations, labour markets and institutional infrastructures are examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper suggests an alternative procedure to the rating of places according to the assumption that averaging data on a number of different criteria presents a valid representation of a general pattern. The UK media frequently publish articles reporting on research that rates places on various criteria, with indices that can be structured into league tables. Such indices are frequently based on statistical procedures that over-simplify the differences between places. Following a critique of such methods, an alternative procedure is presented and applied to the data used for the recent production of the UK Prosperity Index. It shows that the geographies of the 43 separate variables deployed in producing that index are more complex than can reasonably be assumed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of several experiments in union-management cooperation that took place during the 1920s. The author examines the economic and social factors that influenced the formation, operation, and decline of these experiments. Although observers at that time hoped that union-management cooperation would be widely adopted, it extended only to industries suffering from declining markets for union-made products and failed to survive the Great Depression. When the author compares these early experiments to current cooperative endeavors, he concludes that unions and employers will voluntarily work together to improve productivity only within an intermediate range of economic stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with the conclusion of the Stern Review that the cost of climate change could be as much as 20% of the global GDP. In this paper, I identify two major sources of variation in the estimates of the aggregate cost of climate change. One is the disagreement among the AOGCM models on the magnitude of climate change, and the other is the divergence among the economic models on how harmful these changes will be to the economy. The main conclusion of this paper is that only under the alarmist approach—which assumes both the most severe climate change and the most extreme estimate of climate change damage to the economy—we can be convinced that the cost of climate change is close to 20% of the global GDP in 2100. In most other cases, the cost will be under 1% of the global GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The discipline of comparative political economy (CPE) relies heavily on aggregate, country-level economic indicators. However, the practices of multinational corporations have increasingly undermined this approach to measurement. The problem of indicator drift is well documented by a growing critical literature and calls for systematic methodological attention in CPE. We present the case for a rocky but ultimately rewarding middle road between indicator fatalism and indicator faith. We illustrate our argument by examining two important cases—Sweden's recent export success and the financialization of non-financial corporations in France. A careful parsing of the data suggests corrections to common characterizations of the two cases. Swedish exports have been reshaped by intragroup trade among foreign subsidiaries of domestic corporations. The growth of financial assets held by French firms is attributable to the growth of foreign direct investment and to cumulative revaluation effects, while what remains of financialization is concentrated among the very largest firms. Based on these findings, we propose a methodological routine that parses data by zooming in on the qualitative specifics of countries, sectors, and firms, while using all available options for disaggregation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to unravel the impacts of the global economic crisis upon European banking centres on the basis of the evolution of key economic indicators, such as total assets, profitability and the level of risk to the banking sector over the 2004–2015 period. Counterintuitively, the European leading banking centres (London, Paris and Frankfurt), despite their extensive exposure to capital markets, displayed a high level of resilience, which contrasts with the evolution of the other major Western European centres, which clearly lagged behind the European leaders. From a macro-regional perspective, banking centres in Western Europe exhibited the first signals of both the crisis and the recovery, which were subsequently diffused across Europe. Surprisingly, the profitability of low-ranking banking centres in Central and Eastern Europe remained the highest over the whole 2004–2015 period, as these banks operate predominantly within a regional (national) market. Overall, during the 2004–2015 period, London, Paris and Frankfurt clearly strengthened their dominance among European banking centres. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How might academic practices contribute to the exciting proliferation of economic experiments occurring worldwide in the current moment? In this paper we describe the work of a nascent research community of economic geographers and other scholars who are making the choice to bring marginalized, hidden and alternative economic activities to light in order to make them more real and more credible as objects of policy and activism. The diverse economies research program is, we argue, a performative ontological project that builds upon and draws forth a different kind of academic practice and subjectivity. Using contemporary examples, we illustrate the thinking practices of ontological reframing, re-reading for difference and cultivating creativity and we sketch out some of the productive lines of inquiry that emerge from an experimental, performative and ethical orientation to the world. The paper is accompanied by an electronic bibliography of diverse economies research with over 200 entries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents an index of globalization covering its three main dimensions: economic integration, social integration, and political integration. Using panel regression for the period 1970-2000 the paper analyzes whether globalization has influenced OECD countries' implicit tax rates on labor, consumption and capital. The results show that globalization did not decrease the leeway for independent economic policy. Globalization even increased implicit tax rates on capital, while tax rates on consumption and labor are unaffected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents an analysis of the process of application of measurement and control systems in underground coal mines in Serbia. Particular attention is paid to the experience with the first systems introduced in the mines ‘Soko’ and ‘Aleksinacki Rudnici’. A significant part of the paper is devoted to the description of the process of the development and improvement of systems, described by three aspects (technical, exploitation and commercial/financial). The technical aspect is described by seven criteria (imported systems, basic technical knowledge, input/output properties, real-time functions, offline processing, alarm processing and presentation and education) and 18 indicators. The exploitation aspect is described by six criteria (system design, reliability and accuracy, data presentation, alarm processing, use of information, and operation and maintenance) and 21 indicators. The commercial and financial aspects are described by financial indicators that show the positive effects of domestic development of the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is a sustainable study of China amidst high carbon emissions. China has experienced tremendous increase in its economic operations and development which involve the excessive utilization of fossil fuel energy sources. This has put China in the list of nations that contribute towards global warming via carbon emission. On this note, data from China over the period 2002Q1–2019Q4 is analyzed, using multiple techniques (nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag-NARDL, fully modified ordinary least square-FMOLS, and bootstrap approach of Granger causality) for clear insight into China's sustainable development. Relevant instruments (technological innovation, entrepreneurial activities, economic growth proxied by GDP, fossil fuel energy consumption, and FDI) are used to measure China's economic and environmental performance to determine the level of sustainable development of the country. NARDL and FMOLS results reveal that technological innovation and entrepreneurial activity mitigate carbon emissions, while fossil fuels and economic growth induce China's carbon emissions. Also, findings from the bootstrap approach affirm the NARDL and FMOLS outcomes, with both two-way and one-way nexus established among the selected variables. Policies targeting the reduction of fossil fuel consumption in China despite the technological innovations and entrepreneurial activities are thus recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors investigate reasons unemployment insurance (UI) claims have declined dramatically over the past 3 decades. The fall is concerning because it suggests a reduced countercyclical effectiveness of the UI program. Additionally, weekly initial UI claims are an important leading indicator of aggregate economic activity, so their meaning has changed. The authors identify the main factors that changed with the decline in claims. Their procedure suggests what the level of claims would have been later in the period, had values of variables or parameters of the system been at levels observed earlier in the period. The analysis of state-year data suggests that the decline in UI claims stems largely from changes in the industrial and occupational mix of employment interacting with changes in UI program features set by individual states. This decline could be offset by federal rules for states to improve benefit access, replacement rates, and potential UI durations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although researchers have demonstrated conclusively that sports stadiums are not economic development catalysts, stadium projects that include preplanned ancillary developments have been proposed as a salutary strategy to overcome the widely observed dismal economic performance of standalone stadiums. Using an objective rubric for evaluating economic impact studies, we review a commissioned pro forma model that claims to demonstrate net positive fiscal impacts of two prominent publicly-financed stadium-anchored developments. Using assumptions informed by existing research and established discipline standards, the model estimates substantial negative returns for both projects (−$40 to −$60 million in Worcester, Massachusetts and −$100 to −$200 million in Cobb County, Georgia). We find that the reported fiscal surpluses derive from chosen assumptions and not the stadiums' complementary developments. We conclude that pro forma estimates do not provide credible forecasts of fiscal impacts, and ancillary developments do not improve the fiscal returns of stadium projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies ignored the distinction between short, medium, and long term by decomposing macroeconomic variables and human development index at different time scales. We re-visit the causal association between biomass energy (BIO), economic growth (GDP), trade openness (TRO), industrialization (IND), foreign direct investment (FDI), and human development (HDI) in China on a quarterly scale by scale basis for the period 1990 to 2019 using the tools of wavelet, i.e., wavelet correlation, wavelet coherence and scale by scale Granger causality test. The main findings uncover that IND, TRO, GDP, and BIO positively drive the HDI at low and medium frequencies, while FDI negatively impacts HDI during the sample period. Additionally, there is a bidirectional relationship between GDP and HDI at different time and frequency domains. Specifically, we discover that the positive co-movement is more robust in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, particularly for HDI, BIO, GDP, and TRO at medium frequencies throughout the period under research. Our empirical insights have significant implications for achieving human development sustainability in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The open and the semi-closed input–output model are widely used in impact analysis but usually yield considerably different outcomes. This paper examines whether such differences also exist in structural decomposition analyses. The empirical part considers the decomposition of the growth in gross output and in labor compensation, for China (1997–2007) and for a set of 35 other countries. Our main findings are twofold. First, for gross output growth, both models yield very similar results for the factors they have in common. Therefore, if only the contribution of these common factors is of interest, it does not matter whether the semi-closed or the open input–output model is used. Second, for the analysis of labor compensation growth, both models may yield significantly different results for the labor compensation coefficients. Therefore, if the contribution of changes in labor compensation coefficients is of interest, the semi-closed model is recommended to be used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been proposed in the literature several alternative indexes of the degree of residential segregation of the nonwhite population of a city. This paper shows that all of these can be regarded as functions of a single geometrical construct, the segregation curve. From this several important implications have been developed. First, the proposed indexes of segregation have a number of hitherto unnoticed inter-relationships which can be mathematically demonstrated. Second, some of them have mathematical properties of which their proponents were unaware, and which lead to difficulties of interpretation. Third, as a consequence, the status of the empirical work already done with segregation indexes is questionable, and their validity for further research is undetermined. This paper consists of a summary of the mathematical analysis made of segregation indexes and of a documentation of the conclusions listed. The problem of validating segregation indexes is viewed as one of some importance, not only in its own right, but also as an illustration of the difficulties in finding an adequate rationale for much sociological research using index numbers.

Changes in the long-term interest rate would seem to be an important source of systematic risk for common shares, but the empirical results to date have been very disappointing. For the most part these results have been obtained with a model where an interest rate variable, say the holding period return (HPR) on a long bond, is added to the market model. This paper examines two alternative models in which the independent variables are different linear combinations of the HPRs on the market and a long bond. The alternative models are found to be superior theoretically and empirically. In tests on a large number of utility and industrial shares over a number of periods, the most attractive model theoretically produces interest rate betas that are highly significant for all utility shares and a very large fraction of the industrial shares. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vulnerabilities that enhance the likelihood of a household falling into fuel poverty are increasingly recognised as highly multidimensional and geographical. However, the most established indicators used to measure fuel poverty are primarily based upon expenditure. This paper seeks to understand to what extent expenditure-based indicators succeed in representing wider socio-spatial vulnerabilities that manifest in particular locales. Our analysis focuses upon England, where a policy review in 2012 led to the replacement of a 10% indicator with a low-income high-cost indicator. Fuel poverty estimates are scrutinized at a neighbourhood scale, considering their relationship with a range of socio-economic, demographic and socio-technical characteristics. Place-based effects upon these relationships that arise from the wider context within which each neighbourhood sits are also accounted for using geographically weighted regression. The findings suggest that a ‘one-size fits all’ expenditure-based indicator is unlikely to capture the heterogeneous socio-spatial vulnerabilities that enhance the likelihood of fuel poverty experienced between different demographics and geographical contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyze Brazilian inflation under the inflation-targeting system from a conflict inflation perspective and show how the inflation target system only worked well when there was a trend of exchange rate appreciation. Later, the strengthening of the bargaining power of workers and rising real wages since 2006, combined with continuous nominal exchange rate depreciation after mid-2011, increased distributive conflicts and are ultimately behind the recent shift toward austerity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the evolution of gross retail margins for automotive fuels in Spain between January 2001 and February 2013. We firstly empirically test for breaks in the time series of gross margins. Our results indicate that there is only one break-point, in mid-2008, just when the demand for automotive fuels drops due to the economic crisis and the difference between the Spanish and the European retail margins increase notably. In addition, a regression analysis shows that the gross retail margins were higher during the recessive period of the Spanish economy (2008-2013) than before. Furthermore, we examine the causes of the break-point and of the subsequent evolution of margins. We find no evidence to support either the prohibition of using retail price maintenance (RPM) and recommended prices in the supply contracts or a supply cost change of automotive fuels as the cause of the evolution of retail margins. In addition, empirical evidence indicates that retail prices respond symmetrically to changes in wholesale prices. Instead, we show that the data are consistent with some firms exercising market power during the recessive period of the Spanish economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) is a widely monitored economic indicator. The index measures consumer expectations, which contain information about potential future changes in consumer spending. Thus, any change in the dynamics of the sentiment index should contain important signals about future consumer behaviour, as well as changes in the real economy and stock returns. In this paper we use Cox’s proportional hazards model to estimate dynamic transition probabilities for a reversal in the CSI. We predict the probability of both positive and negative runs in sentiment surviving in the same state. Lagged changes in consumer sentiment and the frequency of recent reversals of sentiment are found to be significant predictors of a change in state. The model has substantial predictive ability, as measured by both categorical accuracy and a probability scoring rule, the Brier Score (Brier, 1950) out of sample. The predictive accuracy of the model is robust to the impact of the global financial crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we propose a new version of the Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) to predict the natural gas demand problem. This heuristic approach will estimate the Turkey's natural gas demand based on economic indicators. The well-known ACO is multi-agent systems in which the behavior of each ant is inspired by the foraging behavior of real ants to solve optimization problem. In this paper the proposed approach presents that the many ant colonies begin the searching from different random points. Ant Colony Optimization Natural Gas Demand Estimation (ACONGDE) model is developed using population, gross domestic product (GDP), import and export. All equations proposed here are linear and quadratic. Quadratic_ACONGDE provided better fit solution due to the fluctuations of the economic indicators. The ACONGDE model plans the natural gas demand of Turkey until 2025 for three scenarios. We also present an estimation of the natural gas demand for Central Anatolia Region of Turkey using population rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries may utilize a long coastline in relation to their landmass as a resource to develop their maritime economy. This paper argues that ASEAN countries differ in utilizing their maritime potential. As a basis for further comparative studies the Center for Policy Research and International Studies (CenPRIS) in Penang developed a set of indicators to measure the maritime potential of nations, the state of their maritime industries, and the degree to which the maritime potential has actually been utilized. Using the CenPRIS Ocean Index (COI) shows that Brunei and the Philippines have underutilized their maritime potentials, whereas Singapore and Thailand have made full use of it. Malaysia still has the potential to further develop its maritime economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, many Russian and Ukrainian households have experienced periods of economic marginalization. The role of this paper is to examine these social costs of transition, noting that official reporting underestimates the true scale of the problem, and the household responses to these costs. The discussions are based on both qualitative and quantitative research undertaken in numerous locations in Russia and Ukraine. One of the paper's key arguments is that informal economic practices are crucial to many households and that a broad spectrum of coping tactics is employed. These tactics often reveal the unequal power relations that run through state-society and worker- employee relations and help detail the high levels of corruption that exist in post-Soviet societies. Furthermore, these tactics are entwined in the locations within which they take place and rely on high levels of social capital, ensuring that households would rather remain in their current location than migrate to cheaper regions. The paper concludes on a rather pessimistic note, arguing that, although Russian and Ukrainian households have 'coped' over the 20 years since the beginning of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the future poses new challenges. These include an ageing population, the increasing use of credit (default on which can lead to eviction) and the global recession, which leads to a decrease in opportunities in the informal sphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic development agencies worldwide have eagerly embraced clusters as a strategy to boost local economic development. When implementing cluster-based interventions, one of the main issues encountered by many public sector bodies is that the majority of cluster analysis and measurement techniques only give a partial overview of how they actually operate. Often it is the dynamics of collaboration within a cluster that has the biggest influence on overall success. This paper adopts a system thinking approach to help us understand cluster development and inter-firm collaboration. The outcome of this work was the development of a basic five stage conceptual model that helps explain how a cluster develops, together with the changes in company behaviour and company interaction that might be seen at different stages of this developmental trajectory. Using Scotland as an empirical test case, this article highlights the model and examines the problems associated with the adoption of this approach. This methodological approach was shared with other regions working to support clusters to ascertain the relevance of this approach elsewhere. Overall this paper concludes that the model proves to be a useful tool in assessing the varying stages of a cluster's development both within and outside Scotland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a comparative assessment of fiscal decentralization in China and India, including the standard components of expenditure and revenue assignments and institutions for intergovern-mental transfers, as well as the nature of sub-national authorities over general economic activity. In particular, the case of China, where town and village enterprises have been very active, is contrasted with that of India, where local governments remain circumscribed in their authority, despite decentralizing reforms. The implications of differences in decentralization for fiscal outcomes and economic growth are discussed. The characterization of each country in terms of concepts of federalism, i.e., competitive, cooperative and market preserving federalism, is discussed, in attempting to abstract from the two cases to more general lessons for fiscal decentralization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents evidence of a non-linear relationship between real GDP growth and oil price changes for the US economy. We also argue that this non-linearity is not merely due to the use of data from the mid-1980s onwards, as most authors, so far, seem to believe. In fact, we find the existence of non-linearity with the use of data earlier than 1984, and even before 1977. Furthermore, we question that the non-linear transformations of oil prices proposed in the literature are the most appropriate ones for reflecting such non-linearity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the next decades, many OECD countries are anticipating large increases in public spending as a result of population ageing and other long-term structural trends. The need to put public finances on a sustainable footing is widely recognised, but progress has been uneven and slow. Some policy makers may feel that action can be deferred for a few years at little cost because of the long-term nature of the problem. This paper questions this perception by proposing a model of the political costs of consolidating public finances. The main finding is that even a short delay increases political cost of consolidation quite markedly when ultimately policy makers are facing a deadline by which sustainability must be restored. The conclusion is robust to a wide range of changes in assumptions and specification. A variant of the model shows that with an infinite horizon the incentive to consolidate is weaker, which highlights the importance of setting a deadline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of sports stadia for economic development and regeneration has gained increasingly credibility in recent years, both academically and in terms of UK urban policy. However, evidence to support the effectiveness of stadia for these purposes is highly variable. This paper uses a comparative case study of the Millennium Stadium and the City of Manchester Stadium to examine the effects of stadia development on the commercial property market, an area of research that has received little attention in the literature. It uses the expert opinion of professionals working in real estate, together with the experience of key stakeholders in Manchester and Cardiff to provide empirical evidence that stadia can create tangible and intangible impacts on the commercial property market, but that these are variable between different sectors. It concludes by arguing the need for further research on the role of stadia in the regeneration process if the impacts of these developments are to be maximised in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greater economic growth could lead to greater greenhouse gas emissions, while simultaneously enhancing various aspects of human well-being and the capacity to adapt to climate change. This begs the question as to whether and, if so, for how long would a richer-but-warmer world be better for well-being than poorer-butcooler worlds. To shed light on this issue, this paper draws upon results of the ‘Fast Track’ assessment (FTA) reported in a special issue of Global Environmental Change: Part A 14 (1): 1-99 (2004), which employed the IPCC's emissions scenarios to project future climate change and its global impacts on various determinants of human and environmental well-being. Results suggest that notwithstanding climate change, through much of this century, human well-being is likely to be highest in the richest-but-warmest (A1FI) world and lower in poorerbut-cooler worlds. With respect to environmental well-being, matters may be best under the A1FI world for some critical environmental indicators through 2085-2100, but not necessarily for others. An alternative analysis using the Stern Review's worst-case results for potential welfare losses due to climate change indicates that welfare, adjusted for market and non-market impacts of climate change and the risk of catastrophe, should be highest under the A1FI scenario, at least through 2100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the rural labour market within Wales over the last decade. Data from the Labour Force Survey and the New Earnings Survey are used to compare trends in economic activity rates, employment, education and earnings in rural Wales with the rest of the country. In addition to the rural-urban comparison, evidence presented from other rural labour market studies is used to establish similarities between the rural labour market within Wales and the rest of the UK. In this respect, the paper collects evidence from which the need for differential labour market policy between the rural and urban area can be assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the establishment of the Welsh Assembly Government there has been more emphasis on indigenous enterprises in relation to economic development policy. However, the housing-related sector has received little attention. This paper 1 presents the results of research that has investigated this sector and its significance to the local economy. Whilst acknowledging the considerable data-related difficulties in this exercise, analysis of housing and housing-related functions (including construction, finance, legal services, management of housing stock) showed that the sector accounted for around 4.5% of Welsh employment, and had considerable potential for assisting in the future development of the regional economy. 1 The authors acknowledge support from the Council of Mortgage Lenders in this research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic indicators are essential for policy making. In transition economies and in Russia in particular, both the quality of data and their comparability are subject to criticism, This phenomenon is particularly observable for the Kaliningrad region, which is currently at the centre of discussions between the European Union and the Russian Federation. At present, many observers and policy makers are dissatisfied with the existing figures. The objective of this paper is to fill part of the gap and to give an economic image of the Russian enclave, on the basis of five years of fieldwork. We concentrate on the assessment of Kaliningrad's trading openness and its economic development level. In a first section, we reassess the trading position of the region taking into account its geographical location. Second, we give an appraisal of the unrecorded economy of the enclave and reassess regional production. Finally, we make Gross Regional Product comparable with other countries and reassess the region's GRP in purchasing power parity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]