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As conventional oil production becomes limited, transportation fuels are being produced from other unconventional fossil resources such as oil sands. Oil sands are a combination of clay, sand, water and bitumen. Vast quantities of oil sands resources have been found worldwide. The largest known reservoir of oil sands in the world is located in the province of Alberta (Canada). Several techniques for the extraction of the oil from oil sands have been developed in recent decades. Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) is the most promising approach for recovering heavy and viscous oil resources. In SAGD, two closely-spaced horizontal wells, one above the other, form a steam-injector and producer pair. The reservoir oil is heated by the injected steam and drains to the producer under the effect of gravity. First aim of this work is an economic optimization and evaluation of an hypothetical industrial scale facility (named LINK), located in Alberta. All data relating to LINK plant have been obtained from a review of the existing literature references or have been assumed. A Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCFA) of LINK plant has been performed. Costs of existing projects have been found in literature. The results show that the hypothetical plant LINK is a profitable investment and that the investment cost has a significant effect on the competitiveness of the LINK facility. Second purpose of the present work is an environmental analysis of the LINK plant: in order to evaluate GHG emissions from LINK plant, a LCA analysis has been carried out. The calculated emissions from oil sand production by SAGD technology have been compared with values relating to conventional crude oil pathways and to recovery and extraction of bitumen through surface mining from literature. The comparison demonstrated that SAGD is a promising technology also from an environmental point of view. An economic–environmental model for SAGD technology optimization has been developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though advance payment is widely used in practice, its influences on buyer’s inventory policy are rarely discussed. This paper investigates the buyer’s inventory policy under advance payment, including all payment in advance and partial-advanced–partial-delayed payment. The buyer’s ordering policy is derived by minimizing his total inventory costs including inventory holding cost, ordering cost, and interest cost caused by advance payment or delayed payment. The conclusions show that when all the payment is paid in advance, the buyer’s optimal replenishment cycle is influenced only by the price discount associated with advance payment, and the length of advance payment has no effect. For the partial-advanced–partial-delayed payment case, the buyer’s replenishment cycle is also not influenced by the length of advance period. However, in this situation, the delayed period and the price discount may have impacts on the inventory policy. We also use discounted cash flow (DCF) model to derive the buyer’s replenishment cycle and show that the replenishment cycle is negatively related to the length of advance period. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energies have a key role in defining an energy policy based on security, independence, and sustainability. The Italian market is characterised by the absence of support mechanisms for photovoltaic sources for electricity and by a high level of maturity in the energy market. Consequently, this paper contributes to, and advances, the debate concerning self-consumption that can support the economic sustainability of photovoltaic facilities. We constructed a database to conduct an analysis. A survey was conducted among 750 companies operating in various stages of the industry supply chain. The survey collected data related to industry turnover, profitability levels, profitability margins of the business areas and employee numbers. The economic feasibility of photovoltaic investment is evaluated for systems of varying sizes (3 kW, 20 kW, 200 kW, 400 kW, and 1 MW) located in two areas of the country to account for different levels of insolation (northern and southern regions). The indicators used are net present value (NPV) and discounted payback time (DPBT). A subsequent sensitivity and scenario analysis is conducted according to the share of self-consumption, investment costs, and financial structure to examine 210 case studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase of renewable energy production worldwide, occurred in the last years, is also attributable to some agroforestry species cultivated according to the short rotation coppice technique. Although these species are able of enhancing abandoned or marginal land leading to numerous environmental benefits, an increasing number of farmers are introducing them in place of agricultural crops. Therefore, since for a farmer economic sustainability is one of the main factors to introduce a biomass crop, the study aimed at evaluating the profitability of Paulownia, a species that has been spreading in recent years. In particular, an economic analysis has been carried out in a Southern Italian farm in which Paulownia has recently replaced a vineyard, by adopting a discounted cash flow approach. The results show that the Paulownia for both timber and woodchip production, with an annual gross margin equal to 357.91 € ha−1, can represent a valid alternative compared to wine grape (237.41 € ha−1), while Paulownia for exclusively biomass production has almost zero profitability (4.22 € ha−1). However, the profitability depends not only on the product typology but also on the future market price fluctuations, on the subsidies or incentives, as well as on adequate choices by entrepreneurs for the creation of sustainable supply chains also from an environmental and social point of view. [Display omitted] • SRCs have denoted a rapid diffusion in the last years in UE also in Mediterranean area. • SRCs are grown not only in abandoned or marginal land but also in place of traditional crops. • Paper evaluates the economic profitability of SRC Paulownia in a southern Italian farm. • Results show the higher profitability for Paulownia compared to wine grape. • Market price variations and entrepreneurial choices affect profitability but also environmental and social sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smallholder cocoa agroforestry systems provide most of the cocoa produced world-wide and can improve the livelihoods of rural families in the tropics. However, many smallholder cocoa producers experience low cocoa yields due to generally poor management practices, pests, disease, and low soil fertility. In Papua New Guinea, pest and disease management systems have been developed to provide improved yields and revenues, but there has been limited uptake. We hypothesized that the low uptake of these systems may be due to the improved yields not being sufficient to justify the required increase in labour and capital inputs. Our objective was to assess if the integrated pest and disease management systems were financially viable. Our methods involved developing discounted cash flow models that incorporated Monte Carlo risk analysis software. We populated the models with labour inputs, costs, and revenue data collected in country, and from scientific literature. In addition to net present value, we evaluated the production systems with additional criteria we deemed appropriate for assessing the required labour inputs and capital outlays; return on labour; mean labour hours/day; mean annual capital outlays, mean hourly income, and mean annual income. Our results show that under the current cocoa prices being received, all the production systems had a negative net present value, and a mean hourly income that was below the Papua New Guinea minimum wage and less than 1 USD/h. Furthermore, the progressive addition of labour inputs and capital outlays of the pest and disease management systems resulted in mean hourly incomes that are less than currently being received. These decreased hourly earnings may explain the low adoption of these technologies. Financial analyses of new smallholder agroforestry technologies should be used to evaluate the viability and likelihood of smallholder technology adoption. Previous research on cocoa pest and disease management systems failed to account for costs related to labour and capital inputs. Even if farm family labour does not incur a direct cash outflow, it does represent an opportunity cost to farmers. Including additional criteria that measure financial returns to farmers relative to labour and capital requirements should be a part these assessments. These additional criteria can aid in evaluating all the economic thresholds that may impact if and how smallholders will incorporate new agroforestry technologies, which can help improve the success for agriculture-based development projects throughout the global tropics. [Display omitted] • In Papua New Guinea, many smallholder cocoa farmers experience low cocoa yields despite receiving training in pest and disease management systems. • We hypothesized that the low system uptake may be due to the improved yields not being sufficient to justify the increase in labour and capital. • We developed discounted cash flow models that incorporated Monte Carlo risk analysis software to evaluate the systems against selected criteria. • The pest and disease cocoa management systems provided lower mean hourly earnings than the low input cocoa system and this limited adoption. • Smallholder agroforestry technologies should be evaluated for viability and likelihood of smallholder technology adoption during development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change and rapid urbanization requires decision-makers to develop a long-term forward assessment on sustainable urban water management projects. This is further complicated by the difficulties of assessing sustainable designs and various design scenarios from an economic standpoint. A conventional valuation approach for urban water management projects, like Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, fails to incorporate uncertainties, such as amount of rainfall, unit cost of water, and other uncertainties associated with future changes in technological domains. Such approach also fails to include the value of flexibility, which enables managers to adapt and reconfigure systems over time as uncertainty unfolds. This work describes an integrated framework to value investments in urban water management systems under uncertainty. It also extends the conventional DCF analysis through explicit considerations of flexibility in systems design and management. The approach incorporates flexibility as intelligent decision-making mechanisms that enable systems to avoid future downside risks and increase opportunities for upside gains over a range of possible futures. A water catchment area in Singapore was chosen to assess the value of a flexible extension of standard drainage canals and a flexible deployment of a novel water catchment technology based on green roofs and porous pavements. Results show that integrating uncertainty and flexibility explicitly into the decision-making process can reduce initial capital expenditure, improve value for investment, and enable decision-makers to learn more about system requirements during the lifetime of the project. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Radio spectrum is a scarce resource; understanding its economic value is one piece of information needed to manage it efficiently. Estimating the value of radio spectrum, however, creates significant challenges not found in valuing some other assets. Spectrum is somewhat of a special case; market transactions provide a basis for valuation, but almost always require significant adjustments. Some adjustments are best made using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis or econometric evidence. A review of past work on spectrum valuations suggests that focusing on a single valuation technique leaves critical information about spectrum value unused. This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings of spectrum value, and describes how these principles of spectrum value manifest in various empirical applications. Similar to most scarce resources, the value of spectrum is determined by the value generated by its deployment. This concept is typically understood as economic rent. In the case of radio spectrum, economic rent can be thought of as having two components: a sea level spectrum value driven by the general profitability of spectrum based services, and band or license specific adjustments to spectrum value due to band or license specific characteristics. Clarity about these different sources of value can inform how to apply traditional valuation techniques in a hybrid approach to spectrum valuation. The key is to capture the useful information from disparate and incomplete valuation methodologies and then combine them in a meaningful and structured manner. We then demonstrate these proposed valuation techniques empirically. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• The state of São Paulo offers ten potential scenarios for the establishment of biorefineries. • Eucalyptus residues are a promising feedstock that produces 71,000 tons of bio-oil/year. • The minimum selling price of bio-oil varies according to plant capacities between from $11.6 to 19.3/GJ. • The minimum selling price of bio-oil is particularly sensitive to plant capacity and yield. • Co-processing bio-oil with vacuum gasoil can contribute 3.4 % of total "green fuel" in Brazil. Forestry residue is potentially useful for obtaining bio-oil and its by-products (biochar, syngas, and acid-rich aqueous extract) via fast pyrolysis. As such, we carried out a techno-economic analysis of both the production of bio-oil from Eucalyptus grandis residues (ER) and their availability in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Discounted cash flow was used to calculate the minimum selling price (MSP) of bio-oil. Georeferencing identified the location of 20 Eucalyptus plantations, ten of which were selected due to their better economic performance. These ten plantations were potentially able to produce 59 million L/year of bio-oil. The economic analysis of the future biorefineries showed that an MSP of 11.6–19.3 $ (US)/GJ could support the processing of 60,000–5,000 tons/year of ER. A simulation of a large biorefinery revealed a capital investment (CAPEX) of around 6 M$ (US), reaching an operating expenditure peak of approximately 3 M$/year. The sensitivity analysis identified that plant capacity had the most significant impact on MSP, while the by-products (acid extract and biochar) lowered this by 22 %. The large biorefinery simulated using the Monte Carlo method had an 80 % chance of reaching a net present value (NPV) > 0, and an 80 % probability of reaching an internal rate of return (IRR) > 10 %. This study demonstrated that the production of bio-oils by the ten simulated centralized biorefineries is economically viable based on the NPV and IRR indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, we present a fuzzy linguistic ontology payoff method for the valuation of real options in the aerospace industry. Using real data, we apply the fuzzy linguistic approach to determine the credibility measures and the credibilistic expected value for the fuzzy real options valuation payoff method. This approach is used to obtain a multi-scenario modeling process by envisioning three scenarios: optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic. In addition, our experience with the scenario estimates is premised on results in an operating profit forecast. This forecast corresponds to a plausible outcome within the aerospace licensing maintenance, repair, and overhaul market and provides a decision-making tool. This tool can be utilized for determining real options for project valuation of aerospace licensing revenues based on unit costs, recurring costs, and quantity of units sold. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The regulatory process for setting a utility's allowed rate of return on common equity has generally relied upon the Gordon Discounted Cash Flow Model and Capital Asset Pricing Model. The Predictive Risk Premium Model, introduced a year ago, resolves several of the widely known problems with these models. Further testing since its introduction a year ago suggests that it produces stable results which are consistent over time. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: By far, the most widely used enterprise valuation method in business practice is the discounted cash-flow method. Thus, the residual value or continuing value accounts for a significant percentage of the enterprise’s value and will depend on the length of the time horizon. In 2006, Jennergren developed a continuing value model based on one of the methods most commonly used for calculating this value, the Gordon model. The Jennergren model extends the analysis of this model and aims to have it implemented more strictly, taking into account two main parameters, capital expenditures and tax savings due to the depreciation of productive assets. In this study the Jennergren model has been applied to small and medium-sized Spanish enterprises with turnover ranging from 2 to 50 million euros over the period 2005–2008. These enterprises have also been differentiated by industry, using the Spanish NCAE classification (National Classification of Economic Activities). The information used was taken from the SABI (Iberian Balance Sheet Analysis System) database. The resulting economic lives of the productive assets of each industry were compared to the useful lives shown in the Spanish Corporation Tax Law Amortisation and Depreciation tables. It was found that most estimates are within the range established by law. In those cases where this assumption is not met, it is usually due to accelerated depreciation over the limits strictly permitted under law. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A mixed binary integer mathematical programming model is developed in this paper for ordering items in multi-item multi-period inventory control systems, in which unit and incremental quantity discounts as well as interest and inflation factors are considered. Although the demand rates are assumed deterministic, they may vary in different periods. The situation considered for the problem at hand is similar to a seasonal inventory control model in which orders and sales happen in a given season. To make the model more realistic, three types of constraints including storage space, budget, and order quantity are simultaneously considered. The goal is to find optimal order quantities of the products so that the net present value of total system cost over a finite planning horizon is minimized. Since the model is NP-hard, a genetic algorithm (GA) is presented to solve the proposed mathematical problem. Further, since no benchmarks can be found in the literature to assess the performance of the proposed algorithm, a branch and bound and a simulated annealing (SA) algorithm are employed to solve the problem as well. In addition, to make the algorithms more effective, the Taguchi method is utilized to tune different parameters of GA and SA algorithms. At the end, some numerical examples are generated to analyze and to statistically and graphically compare the performances of the proposed solving algorithms. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Conceptual design of a new plant involves the evaluation of alternative plant configurations to determine physical feasibility (does each achieve desired production levels within the required quality limits?) and economic viability (is sufficient profit generated each year of a multiyear projected lifetime while requiring an acceptably low initial capital investment?). In testing alternatives, designers require both an absolute measure and a normalized measure in order to make a definitive evaluation. In recent years NPV (Net Present Value) has often been chosen as the absolute metric and IRR (Internal Rate of Return) as the normalized one. But these two measures provide insufficient information to develop an optimum design that can be guaranteed suitably profitable, i.e., with optimum design profits high enough to justify investment … more importantly, high enough to warrant taking on the risk/uncertainty characteristics of a particular product/plant with the business environment in which the constructed plant must operate. In this paper a relook at discounted cash flow procedures motivates a new metric based on a normalized and annualized value of NPV, designated NPV %. In line with traditional analysis, a required minimum value – (%/year) – once found via ad hoc and/or first principles methods, is assumed to represent suitably the Enterprise''s profitability expectations plus the “premium” needed to justify intrinsic business risk/uncertainty. The ability to achieve a value that justifies anticipated risk, however that property is calculated or characterized, is a major element in determining whether projected returns from a particular design are high enough to justify proceeding with the project. Surprisingly, a close analysis of spreadsheet methodology used for discounted cash flow calculations, such as in calculating NPV, reveals unexpected underlying linearities, e.g.,when “factored estimates” are used (usually the case at the conceptual design stage), as well as Thus maximizing either ROI BT or NPV % is equivalent to minimizing the time to achieve return of invested capital (exposure to risk). NPV measures the effect on a company''s balance sheet that will result from a decision to design/construct/operate. Thus once an appropriate risk premium for a plant is agreed upon, a rigorous design procedure can utilize a constrained optimization procedure in which NPV (absolute profitability) and NPV % (inverse of time exposed to the risk of capital loss) are jointly optimized, subject to the constraint . How much to weight the long-term profitability vs. speed of capital return is essentially a decision for the designers/investors. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Offshore platforms oil and gas day to day operations themselves involve an undeterminable list of risk. Some of them can be prevent or at least mitigate as a result of an experience of a former disaster. Indeed, although computational mathematical technologies grows so fast helping the engineers to estimate and mitigate the risk much uncertainties remains in a way of vagueness, which is many times impossible to measure precisely due to the imprecision and the lake of data. In such cases fuzzy logic is the mathematical treatment indicated to deal with these problems. As insurance is one of the most important economic form to mitigate risk the purpose of this paper is to verify the viability of purchasing a business interruption cover (BIC) for an offshore production unit using the fuzzy net present value (FNPV) that results of the discounted cash flow (DFC) involving much vagueness and uncertainties in these available information. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to propose a fuzzy approach for investment project valuation in uncertain environments from the aspect of real options. The traditional approaches to project valuation are based on discounted cash flows (DCF) analysis which provides measures like net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). However, DCF-based approaches exhibit two major pitfalls. One is that DCF parameters such as cash flows cannot be estimated precisely in the uncertain decision making environments. The other one is that the values of managerial flexibilities in investment projects cannot be exactly revealed through DCF analysis. Both of them would entail improper results on strategic investment projects valuation. Therefore, this paper proposes a fuzzy binomial approach that can be used in project valuation under uncertainty. The proposed approach also reveals the value of flexibilities embedded in the project. Furthermore, this paper provides a method to compute the mean value of a project’s fuzzy expanded NPV that represents the entire value of project. Finally, we use the approach to practically evaluate a project. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper we deal with the risk reserve process with stochastic premium function. We assume that the premiums sizes have exponential distribution with the rate depending on some threshold level. The representation for the discounted defective joint density of surplus and deficit at ruin is obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In order to develop a more realistic resource-constrained project-scheduling model that is applicable to real-world projects, in this paper, the resource investment problem with discounted cash flows and generalized precedence relations is investigated under inflation factor such that a bonus–penalty structure at the deadline of the project is imposed to force the project not to be finished beyond the deadline. The goal is to find activity schedules and resource requirement levels that maximize the net present value of the project cash flows. The problem is first mathematically modeled. Then, a genetic algorithm (GA) is designed using a new three-stage process that utilizes design of experiments and response surface methodology. The results of the performance analysis of the proposed methodology show an effective solution approach to the problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This work investigates and compares energy-related, private business strategies, potentially interesting for investors willing to exploit either local biomass sources or strategic conventional fuels. Two distinct fuels and related power-production technologies are compared as a case study, in terms of economic efficiency: the biomass of cotton stalks and the natural gas. The carbon capture and storage option are also investigated for power plants based on both fuel types. The model used in this study investigates important economic aspects using a “real options” method instead of traditional Discounted Cash Flow techniques, as it might handle in a more effective way the problems arising from the stochastic nature of significant cash flow contributors’ evolution like electricity, fuel and CO2 allowance prices. The capital costs have also a functional relationship with time, thus providing an additional reason for implementing “real options” as well as the learning-curves technique. The methodology as well as the results presented in this work, may lead to interesting conclusions and affect potential private investment strategies and future decision making. This study indicates that both technologies lead to positive investment yields, with the natural gas being more profitable for the case study examined, while the carbon capture and storage does not seem to be cost efficient with the current CO2 allowance prices. Furthermore, low interest rates might encourage potential investors to wait before actualising their business plans while higher interest rates favor immediate investment decisions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Canadian province of British Columbia has large forestry resources and therefore provides an informative example of the potential role of bioenergy in mitigating GHG emissions. Even in biomass-rich British Columbia, forestry resources are only sufficient to meet part of the energy demand. This paper compares different energy conversion routes for forestry waste materials: via hydrothermal liquefaction, thermochemical methanol and bioethanol, renewable natural gas, cogeneration of heat and power, heat-only boilers, and power-only generation. The GHG savings, health impacts, minimum selling prices, and GHG abatement costs for each option are estimated by combining life cycle assessment with a discounted cash flow model. The input-based functional unit of 1 oven-dry tonne biomass provides a better basis for comparing possible uses of finite biomass supply than the commonly-used output-based functional unit of 1 GJ bioenergy. Heat-only boiler for district heating gives the highest GHG reduction of 960 kgCO 2 -eq per oven-dry tonne feedstock, while power-only generation delivers minimal GHG benefit in British Columbia. Heat-only boiler and cogeneration offer the lowest GHG abatement costs (<$-20/tCO 2 -eq), due to lower costs and higher energy conversion efficiencies, and are already economically viable, but will not use all the available resources because health impacts generated by biomass combustion limit their deployment, despite life cycle health benefits for avoiding hazardous emissions from slash burning of forestry waste materials. Refined biofuel options are much less cost-effective (>$50/tCO 2 -eq); further technology improvement and policy support are needed to offset the cost disadvantage. • Comparison based on 1 ODT biomass identifies the most efficient way to utilize this scarce resource. • Producing energy from forestry waste materials can reduce emissions of GHGs and other pollutants. • Biomass-fired heat boiler gives maximum GHG mitigation per ODT feedstock. • Biomass-fired heat boiler and cogeneration are the most cost-effective in GHG mitigation. • Liquid biofuel options cause lower local health impacts but at higher GHG abatement costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Hydrothermal carbonization can readily convert paunch waste to value-added products. • Process modelling indicates that pre-heater and dryer are the main energy consumer. • Hydrothermal carbonization technology development is challenged by reactor high cost. • Treating dewatered paunch waste is more commercially viable despite lower conversion. • Economic viability is highly sensitive to LHSV of reactor and economic assumptions. In this study, dewatered and raw paunch waste, with 15 and 3 wt% total solids respectively, generated at abattoirs was hydrothermally carbonised under subcritical water conditions. Higher solids content was found to produce higher hydrochar yield (i.e. 53% for 15 wt% compared to 33.5% for 3 wt%) at similar operating conditions of 10 bar and 240 °C for 5 min. The morphological differences were noted via Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) in the hydrochar samples, and the surface area for processing raw paunch waste was found to be 68.1 m2 g−1 compared to 10.8 m2 g−1 in case of dewatered paunch waste. The light bio-oil was mostly composed of phenolic compounds while the heavy bio-oil mainly contained long chain fatty acids and their esters. Following the experimental work, a full-scale ASPEN Plus process model was developed for a typical abattoir generating 27 tonne dry paunch waste per day. Pre-heater and hydrochar dryer contributed to 73% and 57% of the total energy for processing raw and dewatered paunch waste, respectively, because of the high moisture content of the feedstock and hydrochar. After the equipment sizing and estimation of capital and operating costs, the discounted cash flow analysis was performed using the Nth-Plant financing assumptions. It was concluded that treating dewatered paunch waste is preferable as it: needed a smaller reactor i.e. lower overall initial investment, was less sensitive to bio-oil price, and improved the net present value over a period of 30 years to $2.8 MM. Besides the liquid hourly speed velocity, its commercial viability is highly sensitive to internal rate of return and existence of hydrochar dryer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the value of real options theory for the telecommunications industry in the U.S. Use of discounted cash flow (DCF) method in project evaluation and investments; Application of real options methodology in DCF analysis; Implications of real options theory for policymakers.

Herein a novel path is analysed for its economic viability to synergize the production of biomethane and dimethyl ether from biogas. We conduct a profitability analysis based on the discounted cash flow method. The results revealed an unprofitable process with high cost/revenues ratios. Profitable scenarios would be reached by setting prohibitive DME prices (1983–5566 €/t) or very high feed-in tariffs subsidies (95.22 €/MWh in the best case scenario). From the cost reduction side, the analysis revealed the need of reducing investment costs. For this purpose, we propose a percentage of investment as incentive scheme. Although the size increase benefits cost/revenues ratio, only the 1000 m3/h biogas plant size will reach profitability if 90% of the investment is subsidized. A sensitivity analysis to check the influence of some important economical parameters is also included. Overall this study evidences the big challenge that our society faces in the way towards a circular economy. • Novel alternative for synergizing bio-methane and dimethyl ether production. • Profitability analysis for four different plant sizes. • The effect of dimethyl ether price and subsidies is studied. • The analysis revealed a technically viable but financially unprofitable process. • Evidence of the need of a strong green policy-making strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patchouli oil is a commercially important essential oil in the flavor and fragrance industry. In this study, a technoeconomic feasibility assessment was conducted to commission a supercritical fluid extraction plant for the extraction of patchouli oil in Singapore. The study revealed that the manufacturing cost for patchouli oil is 53.87 USD/kg for a plant processing capacity of 400,000 kg of raw material/year with the cost of utilities being a major contributing factor to the manufacturing cost. In addition, financial indicators such as net present value, discount cash flow rate of return, return on investment and payback period have been applied to evaluate the profitability of the supercritical fluid extraction plant. The total investment cost for the plant is around 4.77 million USD. Calculation of the discounted cash flow rate of return shows that a maximum interest rate of 26.3% can be loaned from investors and the project would still breakeven. At an interest rate of 5.25%, the return on investment for the project is calculated to be 27.4% and the payback time is estimated to be 5.4 years with a total profit of 5.27 million USD after 10 years. [Display omitted] • Cost estimation and profitability analysis were applied on the SFE of patchouli oil. • Specific cost of manufacturing for patchouli oil was 53.87 USD/kg. • Cost of utilities is the largest contributor in the COM of patchouli oil. • Difference between selling price and patchouli oil COM showed economic feasibility. • Profitability study presented 27.4% ROI and payback time of 5.4 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mine wastes such as tailings contain minerals that can be valorised. However, their resource potential remains widely misjudged because of non-standardised assessment and classification methods. The current United Nations Framework Classification for Resources (UNFC) concept is tested for its applicability to metalliferous tailings mining projects from a private mining company's perspective with economic focus on a scoping study level. For the case study tailings storage facility (TSF) Cabeço do Pião (Portugal), a rehabilitation scenario, and two resource recovery scenarios with low and high degree of tailings valorisation are defined and evaluated. A risk assessment shows that actions are necessary to protect human health and the environment. Material flows are modelled and a discounted cash flow analysis, under consideration of mineral price uncertainty, indicates the project's economic viability. The application of the UNFC principles exemplifies that they cover a broad range of aspects in contrast to the conventional classification principles of the Committee for Mineral Reserves International Reporting Standards (CRIRSCO) which focus on techno-economic aspects: TSF rehabilitation is identified as a necessary base case and positive socio-environmental impacts are prioritised. However, the resource recovery scenarios cannot be differentiated with the current UNFC concept. The evaluation reveals the necessity for a stronger user guidance in the assessment and classification process. Additionally, a more detailed subcategorisation is required to identify a project's benefits and barriers, particularly in social and environmental domains. These aspects are essential for the further development of the UNFC concept to achieve its full potential. • Applicability of the UNFC to tailings mining project is demonstrated exemplarily. • Scoping study indicates economic viability of resource recovery. • Socio-environmental risks are identified as project's main driving factors. • Shortcomings of the current UNFC concept are identified with case study scenarios. • Subcategory extension is recommended to highlight project benefits and barriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increased frequency of hot days due to climate change can potentially impair the environmental and economic performance of pig-fattening farms. Several pig-cooling strategies have been proposed to address these impacts, however their implementation is not always economically viable and the potential environmental-economic trade-offs not well understood. Here, we propose and implement a novel framework for environmental and economic evaluation of pig-cooling strategies in a whole farm context. We also demonstrate through a sensitivity analysis how such models can be integrated with projected climate data to investigate how climate change may affect the assessment of capital investments that are made over significant timescales. We considered two strategies implemented in a pig-fattening farm in south Sweden: pig-cooling with showers and with increased air velocity. Operation of the farm under non-cooling conditions was considered as the baseline system against which the analysis was conducted. We calculated whole-farm annual equivalent values (AEV) with the implementation of each strategy through a discounted cash flow analysis and annualised system environmental impact through a life cycle assessment. Both cooling strategies significantly reduced system environmental impact across all categories except water footprint. Acidification potential was reduced the most, exhibiting a −3.28% reduction with pig showers and −1.51% with increased air velocity. Farm profitability improved by +6.79% with showers and +3.37% with increased air velocity. Ambient temperature increase under non-cooling conditions significantly increased all impact categories with acidification being affected the most (+2.24%), and caused a −4.43% decrease in AEV. Both pig-cooling strategies mitigated these effects on system environmental performance. With increased air velocity we observed a +0.718% increase in acidification, while pig showers were the more resilient option exhibiting a +0.690% increase. The study represents a case-in-point for how to rationalise economically environmental management technologies in pig housing systems based on their cost-effectiveness in mitigating environmental impacts. Image 1 • The environmental and economic impacts of two pig-cooling strategies were evaluated. • We considered pig-cooling with showers and increased air velocity at pig lying area. • Both strategies improved farm environmental performance for AP, EP and NRRU. • Both strategies mitigated heat stress, improved pig welfare and farm profitability. • The strategies mitigated the effects of global warming on pig farm sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lignocellulose biorefineries process biomass into 'green' chemicals and bioenergy and play a key role in sustainable bio-economies. Using sugarcane bagasse and trash feedstocks, biorefineries were simulated in Aspen Plus ® v 8.6 to generate mass and energy balances. Four scenarios with electricity and furfural as common products were generated. Scenario A in addition produced high volume, low value levulinic acid whilst scenarios B1 and B2 generated low volume, high value levulinic acid at varied feedstock capacities. Scenario C produced low volume, high value levulinic acid and bulk gamma valerolactone. The four biorefineries were also compared to a combined heat and power plant that only produced steam and electricity. Aspen Plus ® Economic Analyser and a discounted cash flow rate of return methodology were used to determine the economic feasibility of the bioenergy self-sufficient biorefineries annexed to a conventional South African sugar mill. Levulinic acid production via the Biofine process makes economic sense when produced for niche markets, due to the anticipated decrease in market prices when production volumes increase. Scenario (C) co-producing a low volume of levulinic acid (0.15 t h−1) together with 3.3 t h−1 furfural, electricity (14 MWh) and 6.8 t h−1 gamma valerolactone, was the most profitable. It attained an internal rate of return of 23% and 253 US$ million net present value at a 9.7% hurdle rate by matching chemicals' production volumes to market demands, to maintain high market prices for multiple revenue streams. • Techno-economics of lignocellulose biorefineries via chemical means were assessed. • Economies of scale effects and extra returns from multiple products raised profits. • Scenario with specialty levulinic acid and bulk gamma valerolactone was profitable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Value creation from petroleum projects is uncertain. Yet, even with great odds of failure, companies increasingly take on these ventures. Here, no analytics could cut failures out. We could only avoid loss by avoiding poor investment decisions. In practice, most valuations use inconsistent principles that potentially obscure the value–maximizing decisions. For example, when drilling for hydrocarbons most firms decide which opportunity to drill based on their expected value—calculated from values of multiple outcomes, each with different levels of uncertainty but traditionally evaluated with a single discount rate. The all-inclusive discounting could lead to biases and poor decisions. In this paper, we discuss the shortcomings of the traditional approach and implement a coherent method of integrated valuation that, while more detailed, excels in valuation of uncertain investments. • Traditional discounted cash flow implementation in decision trees creates inherent inconsistencies. • It would be best to separate discounting for time value of money from discounting for risk. We suggest the risk-neutral valuation to account for risks. • In practice, the risk-neutral valuation still requires judgment. • We discuss practical aspects such as financial leverage, basis risk, and correlated risks in the context of a petroleum exploration example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have boomed in China over recent years. However, knowledge about the economic performance of residential PV investments is still limited. Therefore, this study attempts to make a complete economic assessment of residential PV systems at the county-level. After a brief description of China's incentive policies, a model is constructed with economic measures of internal rate of return and payback period based on discounted cash flow. Then, a reference PV system of 5 kW p is investigated in 2181 geographical areas using scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis. There is breakeven for residential PV investments all over China even without incentives. The areas with good performance of residential PV investments are located mostly in Northern China (Shandong and Hebei), Southern China (Guangdong and Hainan), northeast China (Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang), and southwest China (Sichuan and Tibet). The boom of residential PV installations is likely to recede in 2021 as the population with acceptable profitability declines since the central and local subsidies expire. But some excellent residential PV suppliers have the potential to compensate for the performance decrease in many ways such as increasing annual generation and reducing initial cost. This paper contributes by providing some insights into the economic performance and market of residential PV installations in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Techno-economic evaluation of H 2 production by APR and SR of glycerol is performed. • Sensitivity analysis, profitability analysis, and risk analysis were accomplished. • TCOP for APR plant is 3.55 $/kgH 2 regarding the equipment purchased costs. • TCOP for SR plant is 3.65 $/kgH 2 regarding the equipment purchased costs. • TCOP mostly influenced by compressor cost, glycerol price, and discount rate. In this paper, a comparative techno-economic evaluation of hydrogen production by glycerol reforming in aqueous and gaseous phases are presented. To accomplish the techno-economic evaluation, firstly the process modeling and design are presented. Based on the equipment purchased costs, with 80 kg/h hydrogen production, the total cost of hydrogen production is estimated 3.65 and 3.55 $/kgH 2 for steam reforming and aqueous phase reforming plants, respectively. Regarding the installation factor in the equipment costs, the total cost of hydrogen production is estimated 7.49 and 7.45 $/kgH 2 for steam reforming and aqueous phase reforming plants, respectively. To investigate the impact of independent parameters and profitability of the proposed plants, sensitivity analysis, cumulative discounted cash flow diagram, net present value, and discounted payback period are introduced. Additionally, to quantify the uncertainties in proposed plants, Monte-Carlo simulation method with ±50% variation of the key influential parameters is applied. Lastly, it is shown that the aqueous phase reforming process is the optimum choice based on the techno-economic evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Replacement of PEM water electrolysis with diverse degradation rate was considered. • Cash flow diagram was drawn considering degradation rate of PEM water electrolyzer. • Uncertainty analysis was performed considering renewable energy resources. • Environment impact assessment was carried out in terms of CO 2 emission. • Quantified economic results for H 2 from PEM water electrolysis were provided. An environmental issue such as global warming causing series of disasters has been considered as a serious matter, which asks global cooperation, leading the Paris Agreement. As a result, considerable attention has been paid to H 2 due to utilization and storage of renewable electricity expected to increase as time passes. A polymer membrane electrolyte (PEM) water electrolysis using renewable electricity generating from bioenergy, geothermal, onshore wind, etc., has been introduced to store electricity in form of H 2. For preparing successful H 2 society, an economic analysis was conducted considering PEM water electrolyzer cell replacement and renewable electricity resources to figure out economic feasibility. In this study, profitability analysis by drawing discounted cash flow diagram and uncertainty analysis using Monte-Carlo simulation based on itemized cost estimation result were carried out. The results presented that replacement preferred to occur at 2.20 V of max voltage of the PEM water electrolysis cell if electricity price is low and degradation rate is high. Furthermore, H 2 selling price has been more influential factor to a net present value (NPV) than renewable electricity price and hydro and onshore wind energies are regarded as promising renewable electricity resources to achieve goal of H 2 production cost. Moreover, CO 2 footprint analysis was conducted to provide guidelines on the replacement of PEM water electrolysis in terms of environmental aspect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• It is more competitive when using coke oven gas than when using hydrogen. • Electricity revenues can further compensate for costs when using coke oven gas. • Producing ethylene from steel-mill off-gases is economically uncompetitive. Utilization of industrial off-gases to produce valuable chemicals has the advantages of reducing dependence on fossil fuels. Despite many studies of off-gas utilization, production of secondary chemicals including detailed kinetic models integrated with a power-generation system to fully utilize byproducts has not been considered. The goal of this study was to techno-economically evaluate a polygeneration system to produce olefins and power from steel-mill off-gases. Two process cases were evaluated; they use carbon monoxide-rich Linz-Donawitz converter gas with either hydrogen or coke oven gas as feed. The hydrogen was concentrated from coke oven gas by using membrane-separation technology. These gases reacted with Linz-Donawitz converter gas to yield methanol, which was then converted to olefins. Kinetic models were applied for methanol synthesis and methanol-to-olefin reaction. Heat exchanger networks are designed to minimize utility usage, and a power generation system that uses the Rankine cycle to fully utilize byproduct stream. Calculated minimum selling prices of ethylene by discounted cash flow analysis were US$ 2030∙tonne−1 when hydrogen was the feed gas, and US$ 1064∙tonne−1 when coke oven gas was the feed gas; both were higher than the current minimum selling price (~US$ 720∙tonne−1) of ethylene derived from naphtha. The reduction in minimum selling price by use of coke oven gas is due to the revenue of power generation from coke oven gas retentate. Linz-Donawitz converter gas production with hydrogen is the most sensitive to feed price, whereas Linz-Donawitz converter gas-with- coke oven gas is the most sensitive to capital investment. The analysis demonstrates that neither system is economically viable under the current condition. The findings of this study represent a basic analysis for future improvements of the off-gas to olefins process, especially highly integrated system with power generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Photovoltaic (PV) systems transform solar irradiation into electricity, thereby substituting for traditional energy sources and reducing environmental pollution. The present work evaluates a developed market (Italy) in which subsidies have been re-introduced for PV plants with a nominal capacity above 20 kW through the FER1 (renewable energy sources) Decree. The discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology is applied to several cases of PV plants in public buildings, in order to determine the value of several critical variables (i.e. level of insolation, plant size, share of self-consumption, investment cost, electricity purchase price). In particular, differences in net present value (NPV) and discounted payback time (DPBT) between subsidy and no-subsidy scenarios are quantified. Break-even point (BEP) analysis is used to define the share of self-consumed energy for which NPV is positive. This share is found to range from 9 to 28% in 105 kW plants and from 10 to 35% in 25 kW plants. In addition, the results verify profitability in almost all of the baseline case studies and only half of the alternative scenarios (involving no subsidies). The estimated profits are consistent with investments aimed at increasing the share of self-consumed energy. • The proposed economic model supports public decision makers. • The economic model is based on both baseline and alternative scenarios. • PV systems realized on public buildings can be economically viable. • PV plant profitability is not verified in half of the cases without subsidies. • Share of self-consumed energy is the key variable in the economic assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mining industry produces large volumes of mine tailings – a mix of crushed rocks and process effluents from the processing of mineral ores. Mine tailings are a major environmental issue due to implications related to their handling and storage. Depending on the mined ore and the process used, it may be possible to recover valuable elements from mine tailings, among them critical raw materials (CRMs) like rare earths, vanadium, and antimony. The aim of this study was to investigate the techno-economic feasibility of producing critical raw materials from mine tailings. Data from 477 Chilean tailings facilities were analyzed and used in the techno-economic assessment of the valorization of mine tailings in the form of CRMs recovery. A review of applicable technologies was performed to identify suitable technologies for mine tailings processing. To assess the economic feasibility of CRMs production, net present value (NPV) was calculated using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Sensitivity analysis and design of experiments were performed to analyze the influence of independent variables on NPV. Two options were assessed, rare earth oxides (REOs) production and vanadium pentoxide (V 2 O 5) production. The results show that it is possible to produce V 2 O 5 with an NPV of 76 million US$. In the case of REOs, NPV is positive but rather low, which indicates that the investment is risky. Sensitivity analysis and the ANOVA run using the design of experiments indicated that the NPV of REOs is highly sensitive to the price of REOs and to the discount rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many emerging technologies and alternative farm management practices have the potential to improve the sustainability of pig production systems. The implementation of such practices is not always economically viable. The goal of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of such environmental mitigation strategies in pig systems, using an Environmental Abatement Cost analysis. We considered four pig housing (improved insulation, increased ventilation efficiency, frequent slurry removal, increased slurry dilution) and three manure management related abatement strategies (anaerobic digestion, slurry acidification, slurry separation), implemented as stand-alone and as a set of "pig housing–pig housing" and "pig housing–manure management" combinations. We calculated their annual equivalent value through a discounted cash flow analysis and then their annualised abatement potential through a cradle-to-farm gate life cycle assessment. The baseline system against which the analysis was conducted was a typical Danish pig production system, over a 25-year time horizon. The environmental impact categories considered were Non-Renewable Resource Use (NRRU), Non-Renewable Energy Use (NREU), Global Warming Potential (GWP), Acidification Potential (AP) and Eutrophication Potential (EP). Pig housing–anaerobic digestion combinations were the most cost-effective options for GWP, NRRU and NREU. Their abatement costs ranged from −€0.237 to €0.70 per tonne CO 2 eq., −€0.146 to €0.36 per g Sb eq. and -€1.75−04 to €3.11−04 per GJ abated respectively. Anaerobic digestion was the most cost-effective stand-alone investment for GWP (−€0.206 per tonne CO 2 eq.), NRRU (−€0.0493 per g Sb eq.) and NREU (−€1.00−04 per GJ), and slurry acidification for AP (€303 per tonne SO 2 − eq.) and EP (€1190 per tonne PO 4 3− eq.) mitigation. Overall, measures for mitigation of GWP, NRRU and NREU required higher investments than for AP and EP, but also generated profit. The framework developed in this study can potentially aid decision making in the choice of environmentally and economically sustainable pig system modifications. • We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of pig housing and manure management related environmental impact abatement measures. • On-farm anaerobic digestion was cost-effective in reducing global warming, non-renewable resource and energy use. • Mitigating global warming and abiotic depletion required more expensive investments than acidification and eutrophication. • Combining anaerobic digestion with pig housing measures generated profits while reducing the system environmental impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the natural rubber industry, concentrated latex (CL) holds a prominent position due to its use in manufacturing dipped rubber products (e.g., gloves, condoms, etc.). With no previous studies on the process efficiency at commercial level of CL manufacture, this study aimed at adopting process analyses tools in three CL factories (factory A, B and C) in Sri Lanka in view of improving CL manufacture process in financial and environmental terms. This approach possessed three steps: 1) quantification of resource use, financial losses and global warming potential using material flow analysis (MFA), material flow cost accounting (MFCA) and environmental life cycle assessment (ELCA), 2) identification of key issues and proposing improvement options with help of Pareto and what if analyses, field interviews and literature, and 3) determination of potential improvement and feasibility through re-performing MFA, MFCA and ELCA, and discounted cash flow analysis, greenhouse gas payback time and novel loss reduction efficiency index. On average, the present level of financial loss and global warming potential per 1 MT of rubber input were found to be LKR 9608 and 112.8 kg CO2e, respectively. Installation of an advanced trap tank was proposed to factory A (i.e., option-1) whilst extending sedimentation time (i.e., option-2) and Installing inverters and solar panels (i.e., option-3) were recommended to all factories as improvement options. Combined scenario entailing options 2 and 3 for all factories, was found to be the most applicable in terms of financial returns and environmental benefits. • Monetary losses and environmental impact of Concentrated Latex manufacture quantified. • Factors affecting monetary losses and environmental impact identified. • Options with remarkable impacts proposed to improve the overall efficiency. • Novel approach developed to assess the efficiency of multi-factor improvement options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A novel microbial limonene production process at industrial plant scale is designed. • Limonene is recovered by a new combined gas-stripping/solvent-scrubbing method. • Multi-parameter techno-economic analysis is conducted to assess economic viability. • Minimum selling price is $19.9/kg as limonene productivity reaches 0.7 kg/(m3·h). • Uncertainties of parameters used in TEA were addressed by sensitivity analysis. To satisfy the growing demand for limonene, novel pathways for microbial production of limonene have been sought. A techno-economic analysis is carried out for one such process producing limonene from sugar at an industrial plant scale to assess potential economic viability. A conceptual design of the process is developed, in which a gas stripping-solvent scrubbing method is chosen for recovering limonene from bioreactors based on consideration of payback time and process operability. Minimum limonene selling prices are estimated over a range of fermentation productivity based on the calculation of net present value using discounted cash flow method. Under 45% of the maximum theoretical yield, the selling price reaches $19.9/kg, which could be competitive with established production processes when fermentation productivity is above 0.7 kg/(m3·h). Reduction of cost could be realised through improvement of microbial strains, utilisation of cheaper feedstocks, reduction in capital investment and strategic business planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study contributes to formulate a deteriorating inventory model with a hybrid-price-stock dependent demand with credit for units in stock period in the presence of trade credit policy by using the discounted cash flow approach on re-manufactured products. In real life, the demand function is not always constant or linear or nonlinear. The demand rate of any items goes up and down in the real market due to the sum of two different types of demand. This study observes that the demand is depending on price and stock of the product, time value of money and trade credit policy. The objective of this study is to find optimum cycle time, optimum selling price and present profit of all future cash flows. The model starts with mathematical formulating and thereafter studies the necessary and sufficient conditions for obtaining the unique optimal solution. The theoretical solution procedure and case examples have studied for validation of this model. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is expressed out with respect to main parameters and managerial application is obtained. This study uses the different demand functions of a simple pricing-inventory system to find out the maximum profit on re-manufactured products. • A hybrid price-stock dependent demand with credit for units in stock period under deterioration. • This study is to find optimum cycle time, selling price and present profit of all future cash flows. • A mathematical model is formulated and characterizes the optimal solution. • A sensitivity analysis is expressed the main parameters and managerial insights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A novel cash flow model was created for Li-ion battery storage in an energy system. • The financial study considers Li-ion battery degradation. • Frequently using Li-ion (thus reducing lifetime) can be financially attractive. • Using Li-ion is unprofitable unless it participates in grid services. Electrical energy storage (EES) such as lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries can reduce curtailment of renewables, maximizing renewable utilization by storing surplus electricity. Several techno-economic analyses have been performed on EES, but few have investigated the financial performance. This paper presents a state-of-the-art financial model obtaining novel and significative financial and economics results when applied to Li-ion EES. This work is a significant step forward since traditional analysis on EES are based on oversimplified and unrealistic economic models. A discounted cash flow model for the Li-ion EES is introduced and applied to examine the financial performance of three EES operating scenarios. Real-life solar irradiance, load, and retail electricity price data from Kenya are used to develop a set of case studies. The EES is coupled with photovoltaics and an anaerobic digestion biogas power plant. The results show the impact of capital cost: the Li-ion project is unprofitable in Kenya with a capital cost of 1500 $/kWh, but is profitable at 200 $/kWh. The study shows that the EES will generate a higher profit if it is cycled more frequently (hence a higher lifetime electricity output) although the lifetime is reduced due to degradation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study proposes an economic framework based on detailed cost-benefit analysis of the insertion of Smart Grid technologies for electricity infrastructure modernization. The framework maps Smart Grid assets to their functions and benefits to estimate the feasibility of each Smart Grid technology and infrastructure. Net present value and discounted cash flow models, benefit/cost ratio, and minimum total cost are included in the analysis. The framework is applied to the Saudi electricity infrastructure as a case study. The framework is a comprehensive approach for economic analysis adapted from the EPRI Smart Grid model, the NETL modern grid initiative, and a study conducted by CESI and A.T. Kearney to estimate the impact of smart meters and smart equipment on the Saudi electric grid. Our findings show that advanced asset management infrastructure technologies are the most profitable technologies for the Saudi electricity infrastructure, followed by advanced distribution operations technologies, advanced transmission operations technologies, and advanced metering infrastructure technologies. • Cost-benefit economic analysis performed for modernizing the Saudi electricity infrastructure. • A comprehensive economic framework for prioritized insertion of Smart Grid technologies is developed. • Net present value, benefit/cost ratio, and total minimum cost are estimated for each Smart Grid technology. • Advanced asset management technologies are the most profitable technologies to the Saudi electricity infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]