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Carbon emission reduction in China matters to global climate change mitigation. China has been experiencing extensive land changes, which profoundly influence terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) and carbon emissions. Scholars have predicted influences of land changes on TECS in China with scenarios obtained from global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which lack national details. Moreover, universally existing variations in land-use intensity have not been considered when estimating influences on TECS. This study simulated changes of land-use intensity of China from 2000 to 2050 using CLUMondo under China-specified policies for sustainable development modeled by a national IAM named Threshold21-China. We proposed a more precise TECS estimation method by distinguishing land-vegetation and land-soil types. Results demonstrated that under scenario with preceding policies, the total TECS can increase by 865.5 Tg C from 2000 to 2050. Through implementing preceding policies, TECS loss by conversions from cultivated land to artificial surfaces can decline by 82 Tg C, and new TECS accumulated by increased and densified forests can increase by 73 Tg C. Mountainous and rapidly urbanizing regions are sensitively influenced and need more restrict land change management policies. This study demonstrates the significance of sustainable development policies for TECS conservation and indicates specific critical regions. • Introducing national IAM into land change simulation. • Considering land-use intensities in land change simulation. • Proposing an improved TECS estimation method. • Estimating influences of land changes on China's TECS. • TECS accumulation could be improved under sustainable policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon balance in urban areas has become a major research challenge and a principal policy concern in efforts to address anthropogenic climate change. Rapid urbanization and industrialization in China urge the search for integrated strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change, which not only limit to traditional infrastructure sectors, but also cover urban green infrastructure, because plants and soils function as carbon sinks through biotic sequestration. This study presents a nationwide study about how urban green infrastructure could contribute to the carbon balance in 35 major Chinese cities. By the end of 2010, the total area of urban green spaces (the dominant components of urban green infrastructure) accounts for 6.38% of the total land area of these cities and represented 51.7% of the total urban green spaces of all 657 cities in China. Based on empirical data from the literature, the total amount of carbon stored in the vegetation of the urban green infrastructure of 35 cities was estimated at 18.7 million tons, with an average carbon density of 21.34 t/ha. In 2010, the amount of carbon sequestration totaled 1.90 million tons with an average carbon sequestration rate of 2.16 t/ha/year. Collectively, only 0.33% of the carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion can be offset, ranging from 0.01% in Hohhot to 22.45% in Haikou. Nevertheless, the dominance of young vegetation stands in Chinese urban green infrastructure suggests this small carbon sequestration efficiency could become substantial in the near future, given that appropriate policies and management practices are adopted to promote urban green infrastructure for climate change mitigation and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]