Search

Abstract: The overproduce-and-choose strategy, which is divided into the overproduction and selection phases, has traditionally focused on finding the most accurate subset of classifiers at the selection phase, and using it to predict the class of all the samples in the test data set. It is therefore, a static classifier ensemble selection strategy. In this paper, we propose a dynamic overproduce-and-choose strategy which combines optimization and dynamic selection in a two-level selection phase to allow the selection of the most confident subset of classifiers to label each test sample individually. The optimization level is intended to generate a population of highly accurate candidate classifier ensembles, while the dynamic selection level applies measures of confidence to reveal the candidate ensemble with the highest degree of confidence in the current decision. Experimental results conducted to compare the proposed method to a static overproduce-and-choose strategy and a classical dynamic classifier selection approach demonstrate that our method outperforms both these selection-based methods, and is also more efficient in terms of performance than combining the decisions of all classifiers in the initial pool. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper examines the effect of bilateral air connectivity on bilateral service trade flows. Our service trade data includes 'commercial', 'transport', 'travel', and 'government' services. We developed a reduced-form gravity-type model using the Chinese data. An instrument variable (IV) approach is adopted to address the endogeneity issue between bilateral air connectivity and the service trade variables. Our key results are: (a) increasing the number of direct routes can significantly promote bilateral service export and import trades; (b) the average route-level traffic density has only marginal positive effects; (c) improving air connectivity would enlarge China's overall service trade deficit, because the transport and travel services imports are promoted more than their exports; (d) The 'commercial' service exports can be stimulated more than the imports, making China achieve larger commercial service trade surplus by improving bilateral air connectivity. •Increasing the number of direct air routes significantly promotes bilateral service trades in China. •Improving air connectivity enlarges China's overall service trade deficit. •Enhancing bilateral air connectivity stimulates China's commercial service exports more than imports. •China's growing international air transport, facilitated by the Belt-and-Road Initiative, has had a substantial impact on bilateral service trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporary trade barriers, such as safeguards, is a measure to rescue the economy in such a way as to protect domestic industries from foreign competitors. Safeguards provide opportunities for domestic industries to make structural adjustments and reshape their business process to increase their competitiveness during the validity period. Indonesia's government has imposed safeguards for most textile sub-industries, from the upstream industry (yarn and fibres) to the downstream garment industry and other related textile industries. This paper aims to evaluate whether the application of safeguards meets its objectives in improving the competitiveness of domestic industry against its foreign competitors with a long observation period. It is found that the effectiveness of the application of safeguards was limited to rescuing the trade balance. In terms of export competitiveness, safeguards have not been effective in increasing the export competitiveness of the textile industry in the world market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The stimulating role of exports is analysed in this paper through what is termed as a structurally-biased investment function where domestic demand and exports have different effects on investment rate. • There are at two central features of this investment function that have been analysed through a medium-run Kaleckian model. Firstly, exports stimulate growth through the investment channel independent of the direction of change in trade balance. Secondly, in contrast to the Bhaduri-Marglin type investment functions, the sign of profit share coefficient in investment function becomes ambiguous. • The structurally-biased investment function is tested for the registered manufacturing sector in India by conducting a panel-data exercise. It is found to be valid under alternative specifications. The coefficient for profit share is found to be statistically insignificant. • The analytical framework is used to classify export regimes into three distinct categories-BOT-improving, BOT-balancing and BOT-deteriorating. The nature of export regime of a country is argued to depend on income distribution parameters, import propensity and investment responsiveness to home demand and exports. This paper examines the relation between investment and exports through a Kaleckian model and highlights the possibility of export-induced growth process despite deterioration in trade balance. The stimulating role of exports is analysed through what is termed as a structurally-biased investment function where domestic demand and exports have different effects on investment rate. There are at least two central features of this investment function. Firstly, exports stimulate growth through the investment channel independent of the direction of change in trade balance. Secondly, in contrast to the Bhaduri-Marglin type investment functions, the sign of profit share coefficient in investment function becomes ambiguous. The structurally-biased investment function is tested and found to be valid for the registered manufacturing sector in India by conducting a panel-data exercise. The coefficient for profit share is found to be statistically insignificant after controlling for the effect of exogenous changes in exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the short run relationship between domestic expenditure (or absorption), GDP, and the trade balance. It first presents a simple framework to illustrate how domestic expenditure shocks either directly impact national output or net exports. The more domestic spending affects the trade balance, the greater the independence between aggregate demand and supply. The paper then econometrically examines whether short run expenditure variation has translated mainly to GDP or trade balances for a group of trade deficit prone advanced economies – the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, Italy and Spain – from the turn of the century. The results provide strong evidence of very close correspondence between aggregate and disaggregated domestic spending, and trade balances in these economies. This is consistent with the classic Mundell–Fleming approach and intertemporal models of external account determination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the renewable energy consumption responsibility weight system is gradually implemented in various provinces, there is a closer intersection between the excess consumption and green certificates trading. Existing trading platforms can only meet the needs of green certificates trading. This single-platform solution is no longer sufficient to meet the trading requirements under this system. Consequently, this paper proposes a excess consumption and green certificates trading platform based on blockchain technology. This platform utilizes the decentralized, open, and anonymous characteristics of blockchain technology and rely on its smart contract capabilities to simultaneously meet the comprehensive trading needs of surplus consumption and green certificates trading through combining user-initiated transactions with platform-intelligent recommendations. It adapts to the complex excess consumption and green certificates trading market that has emerged following the issuance of the renewable energy consumption responsibility weighting policy. To conduct simulated transactions, 16 groups of buyers simulate a total of 215,792 excess consumption vouchers and 143,861 green certificates in this paper. The transaction results all meet the expected transaction scenarios under the conditions of smart recommendation, demonstrating the platform's transaction feasibility. [Display omitted] • Design a blockchain-based smart contract solution for volume consumption trading and green certificate trading. • Build a database containing 215,792 excess consumption vouchers and 143,861 green power certificates. • Simulate the purchase of 160 buyers by establish a transaction platform. • Analyzed the application direction of the data produced by the trading platform [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Based on GTAP 10 database, RED-ALC China and China Global Investment Tracker database, we use the CGE model to simulate the influences of Chinese multinationals' investment on Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) economies. • Chinese investment and the booming economy are the engines for LAC development. • Chinese ODI contributes to GDP growth, and trade balance improvement in LAC. • The industries with resource endowments in LAC have expanded largely and squeezed out the production of manufactures. Under the 'Belt and Road' initiative, China has expanded its footprint in Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) and contributed to LAC FDI stock, as well as, gross fixed capital formation and GDP. Based on the firm-level Chinese investment data and GTAP database, this paper uses the computable general equilibrium model to estimate the influences of Chinese direct investment on LAC economies. Chinese ODI and the booming economy are the engines for LAC development, according to its contribution to GDP, and trade balance improvement. The rest of LAC economies, China and US benefit indirectly from Chinese investment as well. Each country gives its full play to its comparative advantages. However, it is cautious that the industries with resource endowments in LAC have expanded largely and squeezed out the production of manufactures, which makes LAC economies more dependent on the growth of Chinese economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis in selected 25 OECD countries with annual data for 2005–2016 by considering different real interest rate regimes. A non-dynamic panel threshold model, introduced by Hansen (1999) , is employed. The novelty of the empirical findings from the present study is that there exists a non-linear relationship between the budget deficit and the trade balance, which is driven by a critical threshold level in the real interest rates. The findings suggest that twin deficit hypothesis holds only under the low real interest rate regime, that is, rises in budget deficits lead to deteriorations in the trade balance when the real interest rate is below the threshold level. When the high real interest rate (i.e. above-the-threshold) regime is concerned, increasing budget deficits give rise to improvements in the trade balance, a finding consistent with the twin divergence hypothesis. Thus, the effect on the trade balance of an expansionary fiscal policy that worsens the budget balance reverses substantially depending on the threshold level of the real interest rates. The major policy implication of this paper is that the policy makers in the selected OECD countries should pay a greater attention to fiscal discipline in order to prevent the trade balance from worsening, because the majority of the countries fall into the low real interest rate regime over the recent years of the sample period (i.e. between 2010 and 2016). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Countries that issue internationally acceptable currencies tend to have lower interest rates and higher price levels than those whose currencies are not internationally acceptable. • Differences in interest rates and price levels are likely to cause asymmetric transfers of biophysical resources from low-income to high-income countries. • Currency hierarchy can be empirically operationalized as a categorical variable based on the liquidity of currencies and the degree of monetary sovereignty of their issuers. • Ecologically unequal exchange is driven not only by diverging monetary compensation for exported resources, but also by the impact of currency hierarchy on countries' trade balances. • Alternative explanations for the empirical correlations between currency hierarchy, interest rates, price levels, and ecologically unequal exchange have theoretically and empirically limited. Asymmetric transfers of biophysical resources from the Global South to the North are a key obstacle to sustainable development. The underlying causal drivers of this 'ecologically unequal exchange' are not well understood. This paper accounts for the causal role of hierarchy between currencies as one driver of ecologically unequal exchange. Drawing on dependency theory, I propose testable hypotheses that explain why countries that issue internationally acceptable currencies create net inflows of embodied labour, land, energy, raw materials, and carbon from countries whose currencies lack international acceptability: Countries with lower-ranking currencies face higher interest rates, which constrain their policy space, drive income outflows, and necessitate resource exports. Such countries also tend to have lower price levels (measured as the ratio between exchange rates and purchasing power parity rates) because their currencies are not demanded internationally, resulting in reduced dollar income per exported resource. To test these hypotheses, I use a novel categorical operationalization of currency hierarchy. I compare different observable correlations to the theoretical correlations implied by the proposed hypotheses, and test multiple regression models against cross-country data. Overall, the results are consistent with the hypotheses. Considering alternative explanations, the conclusion seems justified that currency hierarchy is a significant driver of ecologically unequal exchange, and that this mechanism operates specifically through cross-country divergences in interest rates and exchange rates. In short, the monetary cost of a dollar impacts the biophysical cost of a dollar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the conceptualization of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) indexes as Contribution-to-the-Trade-Balance (CTB) indexes based on a comparison between the actual and expected trade balances. We first present existing CTB indexes and explain their theoretical robustness. We next discuss alternative normalization processes of CTB indexes centered around total GDP or GDP per capita. In addition, as CTB indexes are additive applications of the Kunimoto-Vollrath principle, we examine the conceptualization of CTB indexes as multiplicative applications of this principle. Lastly, the option of computing CTB indexes using adjusted trade flows is considered. Ultimately, sixteen CTB indexes are evaluated using a sample of thirty-six trade areas according to time stationarity, symmetric distribution, extreme value frequency and ordinal ranking bias. An additive CTB index computed with or without adjusted trade flows and with normalization by total trade and GDP per capita provides the best measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper aims to explore China's global value chain (GVC) position in relation to those of EU member states, from both total trade value and value-added perspectives. • The paper attempts to research the feasibility of the construction of a China-EU free trade agreement (FTA) by decomposing trade value-added and mapping regional trade network. • The paper endeavours to address the concerns over negative impacts of the label 'Made in China' on the EU economy from the value-added perspective. As the largest trading partner of China, the European Union (the EU) has maintained a close economic and trade relationship with China over the past several decades. However, the deepening of interdependence between them also brought about concerns over negative impacts of the label 'Made in China' on the EU economy. This paper analyses China's global value chain (GVC) position in relation to those of EU member states, followed by a comparative assessment of trade balance and industrial competitiveness between them from both total trade value and value-added perspectives. Our empirical study provides some interesting findings. First, China's trade surplus with and industrial competitiveness over EU member states have been overestimated. In addition, changing the value-chain pattern can be the long-term driving force for a China-EU free trade agreement (FTA). Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions for when and how FTA negotiations can be initiated, mainly from Chinese perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis of positive effects of trade surplus on profitability. • The positive effects of investment rate on profitability are not confirmed, while the effects of fiscal activism on profitability are demonstrably negative. • A strong positive influence of profit rate on the pace of capital accumulation (investment) is indicated. • The results are robust across sub-periods and panels with smaller cross-sectional dimension. The paper considers several determinants of profitability (investment rate, trade surplus, and budget deficit) in the OECD economies in the 1960–2014 period, using the Kalecki's profits equation framework. We estimate and utilise the aggregate profit rate measures for the total economy, employ a series of panel unit root and panel cointegration tests, and apply panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model to examine the relationship between the profit rate and its determinants in the short- and long-run. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis of positive effects of trade surplus on profitability, in line with Kaleckian views concerning the cyclical and secular dynamics of profits and profit restoration forces in the capitalist economies. The positive effects of investment rate on profitability are not confirmed, while the effects of fiscal activism on profitability are demonstrably negative; in contrast, a strong positive influence of profit rate on the pace of capital accumulation (investment) is indicated. The results are robust across sub-periods and panels with smaller cross-sectional dimension. Empirical results highlight the divergence between real investment and profitability, capital formation slowdown, and fiscal policy implementation problems in OECD economies over recent decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assist cruise companies in designing the technic-economic specifications of "fly-cruise" products and attracting international tourists, this paper proposes a model of itinerary planning and dynamic pricing with advanced algorithm. We integrate the Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) to develop a hybrid algorithm to obtain the optimal solution of the model. Taking Malaysian consumers travelling to China for cruise tours as a case study, we empirically test the model with real market data and use it to analyze the impact of innovating "fly-cruise" products on the deficit of China's inbound and outbound tourists. The results show that the innovating "fly-cruise" products will attract 20.52 million Southeast Asian tourists to China annually and generate a profit of US$ 3.56 billion for cruise companies. It highlights that the advanced algorithm based "fly-cruise" products can help China to effectively reduce the deficit of inbound and outbound tourists and improve the international balance of service trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to China's trade surplus with Europe, a significant imbalance exists between east- and westbound freight traffic on the China Railway Express (CR-Express). Many trains and containers return empty to China (i.e., empty backhaul), which leads to wasted freight capacity and significant economic loss. This paper presents an innovative, passenger service-like (PSL) mode, for improving the backhaul operations of CR-Express trains. The rationale for the proposed PSL CR-Express backhaul is verified through the multiple bilateral trade surpluses that exist along the CR-Express route, with which the corresponding container freight demand of each trade pair is estimated. A programming model is built to minimize the gap between the total costs of empty and PSL backhaul, and the freight revenue of PSL backhaul by determining the routes, stations visited, and cargo that needs handling for each train at each station. The numerical results show that, under the optimal scheme, the gap is −3.186 million USD/week for the balanced backhaul trains, and that 5148 FEU of cargo and 1662 FEU of empty containers will be transported in a week. Thus, we argue the proposed mode can more effectively utilize backhaul train capacity, which facilitates the sustainable growth of the CR-Express. • The multiple bilateral trade surpluses along the CR-Express route are calculated. • Passenger service like (PSL) mode is suggested for CR-Express backhaul. • Method for urban transit network design is adopted to optimize the PSL CR-Express backhaul network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper theoretically constructs a simple model to study the effect of the structure of employment on the external trade balance. The paper illustrates that when the share of employment in services increases, the external trade deficit also increases, and this occurs due to the direct effect of the income and the indirect effect of the productivity. Empirically, the paper analyzes the effects of the structure of employment upon the external balance of goods and services in the panel dataset of 137 developing and developed countries for the period from 1960 to 2011. The paper finds that the external trade deficit has been rising with a higher share of the employment in services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable, reliable, and affordable energy access is a major challenge in many parts of the world. The paper addresses this challenge by proposing a local electricity market (LEM) design for nanogrids deployed in Madagascar. Each nanogrid shares a solar PV and battery system, and it meets demand locally before trading surplus energy with other nanogrids on a microgrid bus, facilitated through the creation of a LEM. Two distinct market approaches are investigated and compared: central clearing and bilateral trading. Bilateral trading generates trading prices through direct interaction between consumers and producers, whereas central clearing sets a single trading price based on the cost-ordered supply curve. Our study shows that central clearing generates more consumer-friendly prices and facilitates the trading of all technically feasible energy, while bilateral trading may results in unmatched trading capacity. We find an average price for central trading of 0.49 €/kWh compared to 1.24 €/kWh with a bilateral trading mechanism. To promote the low market prices, a bottom-up retail tariff structure is proposed. The aim of this simplified tariff is to promote initial electrification by minimizing entry prices for end-users' first electricity access to 0.89 €/kWh compared to the current average of 2.11 €/kWh. The discussed results were evaluated in consultation with the local company in Madagascar to ensure practical suitability and to achieve maximum significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Between 2014 and 2017, the Pound depreciated against the Dollar due to monetary and institutional factors. • The effects of exchange-rate depreciation on the trade balance are heterogeneous among the UK's industries. • Following the currency depreciation, science-based industries tend to show a long-run negative effect. • The ARDL methodology is suitable for investigating the dynamics of exchange rates and the trade balance in the short and long runs. Between May 2014 and April 2017, the Pound Sterling depreciated substantially against the Dollar. The objectives of this paper are: 1) to investigate how that depreciation affected the main British industries; 2) to verify whether the trade asymmetries following the currency depreciation can be explained by considering the technological features of the industries as represented in the Pavitt Taxonomy. Using an ARDL methodology, our study analyses the effects of this depreciation for the UK with respect to the USA. We employ industry-level data at monthly frequency for the period 2010–2019. In detail, our estimation suggests that only in four industries out of thirty did the Trade Balance improve in the long run, while it worsened in eight. Moreover, our analysis shows that the Pound Sterling's depreciation against the Dollar had a long-run negative effect on the science-based UK industries. Finally, the size of industries does not seem to give clear indications as to long-term dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water initiatives for business and in business have ballooned in the 2010's because of concerns over increased uncertainty surrounding water supplies as well as competing demands. The challenge is how to improve accounting given the lack of available granular data on which companies can base their business decisions about water scarcity, water surpluses and water management opportunities. Corporate Water Management Accounting is a recently proposed extension to Environmental Management Accounting designed to support corporate management decisions and improve both economic and environmental water-related business outcomes. The paper identifies relevant water accounting information for decision making is lacking in current literature and water initiatives, which focus on external water reporting. In the light of the finding strengths and weaknesses of water initiatives are assessed and a new framework developed for Water Management Accounting. Based on both the literature and gaps in current water initiatives, the paper concludes with a set of specific research issues in corporate water accounting settings along with ways in which water accounting researchers can contribute to the future management of water by businesses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the twin influences of fiscal balance and trade balance on the dynamics of private investment at times of institutional change. Applying quantile regression for panel data of 31 OECD countries in the period 2002–2017, the study contributes in three ways: 1) degradations of fiscal balances and trade balances have clear negative impacts on private investment; 2) improvements in public governance appear as a strong incentive for private investment; notably, better public governance constrains the negative impacts of the twin balances on private investment; 3) countries with higher institutional quality enjoy a positive net effect of the fiscal balance, while the negative net effect of the trade balance is reduced. This study has significant implications, advocating institutional improvement to stabilize private investment in OECD countries. • The impacts of fiscal balance, trade balance, public governance on private investment in OECD countries. • The quantile estimations are applied for panel data over the period 2002–2017. • The fiscal balance and trade balance have negative impacts, while public governance has positive one. • Notably, countries with better institutional quality have a positive net effect of fiscal balance. • While, the negative net effect of trade balance is reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impacts of external adjustment related to global imbalances on the external accounts (trade balance, current account and net foreign asset position) and real output in oil-exporting and frontier markets in Africa via the trade and financial (valuation) channels. To this end, we estimate two global vector autoregression (GVAR) models for 47 countries across different regions, over the period 1979Q2–2016Q4. We also consider the relative importance of global oil price shock and financial market volatility (proxied by the VIX index) as potential drivers of global imbalances. Our results show that the exchange rate policies in the US and China are equally important for economic activity and external accounts of African countries, with changes in China's real effective exchange rate (REER) exerting greater influence on the external accounts of these developing countries. The effects of a positive oil shock and heightened financial market volatility are transmitted into African countries via both the trade and the financial channels, but the differentiated impacts of the oil price shock deepen the external imbalances between oil-exporters and frontier markets in Africa. The trade channel emerged as the main transmission mechanism for these external shocks, while the role of valuation effect working through changes in REER is limited, and negligible with respect to the oil price shock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• China's sustainable development relies on agricultural trade and carbon emissions. • Carbon emission transfer index in agricultural trade is measured. • Decoupling-recoupling model and integrated prediction model are constructed. • A unified framework for trade, environment and technology is established. Under the new development pattern of domestic and international "dual circulation" in China, studying the relationship among green technology innovation, agricultural trade deficit (ATD) and carbon emission transfer embodied in agricultural trade (ATCT) becomes crucial for achieving coordinated and unified high-quality economic development and efficient environmental protection. Based on this, the paper uses environmental input–output model, "two-stage" decoupling and recoupling model, panel vector auto-regressive model, spatial econometric model and "rolling" Grey-BP neural network prediction model to explore present status of ATD, ATCT and their relationship, driving role of green technology innovation, as well as whether that relationship will be improving in the future. The results reveal the following: (1) China's ATD and ATCT show an increasing trend year by year, and their inter-provincial differences are gradually significant over time. The overall relationship between ATD and ATCT does not display ideally, which makes it necessary to quickly transform that relationship into reasonable and ideal state. (2) Green technology innovation has significant positive "U-shaped" and inverted "U-shaped" local effects on ATD and ATCT respectively, with a reasonable range of ATD reduction while ATCT increase valuing from 0 to 0.290, and has significant positive "U-shaped" spatial spillover effect on both without any reasonable range. The short-term effect of green technology innovation on coordinated promotion between ATD and ATCT is superior to the long-term one. (3) Green technology innovation has a significant regional heterogeneity. Regional differences must be taken into consideration seriously, and the measures adapted to local conditions are crucial. The role of fundamental and progressive green technology innovation has heterogeneity, which means that targeted development and utilization of green technology products are important. (4) Regardless of the time horizon, the relationship between ATD and ATCT will improve, which can provide a key step for coordinated development of economy and environment in agricultural trade. Therefore, in order for China to implement and promote further opening-up, reduce agricultural trade dependence, ensure food security and important agricultural product supply, as well as achieve the unity of high-quality economic development and ecological efficient protection, it is necessary to reasonably reverse trade deficit and increase carbon emission transfer in agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the literature on the relationship between oil prices and the trade balance exists, relatively little attention has been given to the asymmetric effects of oil prices on the trade balance at a bilateral level. Thus, the primary thrust of this paper is to probe the asymmetric influences of oil price fluctuations on the bilateral trade balance between Korea and each of her 14 largest trading partners. To this end, we use the method of the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL). We discover that there is evidence that ups and downs of oil prices appear to asymmetrically impacts Korea's trade with some trading partners, though not all, in the long- and short-run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Two perspective for reverse auction process for allotting solar projects in India. • This process can be justified considering financial burden on utility companies. • This process can be justified due to possibility of creating NPA in utility companies. • This process can be justified as it brings cost efficiency. • This process can be countered with its direct impact on macroeconomic condition. Since 2009, the central government and many state governments of India have introduced policies to promote solar PV technologies. The key feature of these policies is allotment through reverse auction process. Although, it has been claimed that through this process, the tariff of power from solar PV has been brought down significantly, question regarding the viability of solar PV project at such low tariff is also being raised. In this paper, paradox between favoured perspective and counter perspective of reverse auction process is elaborated. The favoured perspective is analysed with defending arguments such as poor financial health of utilities companies in India and danger of them becoming non-performing assets (NPA), low affordability of electricity by average customer and possibility of bringing better cost efficiency. The counter perspective is analysed with its effect on macro-economic condition of country, monetary policy, and trade balance and energy security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even though there has been massive research on the impact of trade liberalization on various aspects of economic performance, its impact on trade deficits have been virtually ignored. This is partly due to the underlying theoretical framework which is based on patently unrealistic assumptions and which rules out chronic trade deficits. Within such context, the paper argues that there is no theoretical or empirical justification for postulating an automatically balancing external trade in developing countries. Using a historical case study of Ethiopia, it also shows that chronic deficits are fundamentally structural in nature and therefore cannot be reversed without bringing about structural transformation of the economy from low-skill, low technology productive structure to high-skill, high technology intensive productive structure. It also concludes that such structural transformation cannot be realized under a liberal external trade regime which forces a country to specialize based on its 'natural' comparative advantage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the role of innovation policy and the main facilitators to promote China's international trade in the European Union. The theme Innovation Policy of China to potentiate their international trade in the European Union (EU), from 2014 to 2019. To undertake this, research was established the literature survey. The results show that regarding the research areas there is a multiplicity of themes, including Trade Policy, Digital Trade, International negotiations, Multilateral relations, Leadership, China – Politics & Government, Digital Trade Apps, International Trade, Trade Balance, and Goods balance. Also, the US–China trade war has consequences on the GTC because China, but also the EU and other countries are focussing their trade interest in other regions, especially consumers in Asia, Eurasia, Africa, and South America. For future studies, it is suggested to expand the search for articles concerning China and EU Trade on other databases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines trade frictions between US and China and if these have an effect on ASEAN's trade ties with the former countries. Since the early 1990s, there have been friction between these two countries whereby US blamed the Chinese government for its trade deficits and pointed to low value of Yuan compared with USD as a culprit. Though former US presidents had taken a softer approach in dealing with China on this issue, current president Donald Trump has been unrelenting and has taken a hardline stance. Trump's presidential campaign was founded on correcting US economic imbalances and he fulfilled his promises by imposing high tariffs on Chinese products. The sticky point is whether this policy will achieve its objectives since there are many US companies operating in China and who export their products in significant quantities to their home market. This trade friction will undoubtedly have spill over effects on the trading partners of both countries, namely ASEAN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The paper develops a generalized model of coupled dynamics for addressing the choice theoretic problems of economics and other behavioural sciences. The model extends the framework of coupled system to include an external sector that generates a richer dynamics. The model is applied to explain foreign capital inflow from the developed to the developing countries. Under certain regularity conditions, the existence of the solutions to the dynamic choice problem is proved and they are then obtained by numerical technique because of the non-linearity of the related functions. Robustness results are achieved via additional simulations by perturbation of the baseline parameter values. Highlights • External system plays important role for the coupled dynamical system. • This phenomenon is often observed in natural and behavioural sciences. • In the capital inflow problem, balance of trade is such external system. • Simulations with the present model replicate real life data. • Large rise in lenders' fund show negative trend in capital inflow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Belt and Road is an initiative of cooperation and development that was proposed by China. Moreover, most of the spanning countries faced water shortages and agriculture consumed a lot of water. Virtual water links water, food and trade and is an effective tool to ease water shortages. Therefore, this paper aims to understand the Belt and Road from the new perspective of virtual water trade of agricultural products. We considered agricultural products trade from 2001 to 2015. On the whole, the results indicated that China was in virtual water trade surplus with the countries along the Belt and Road. However, in terms of each country, > 40 spanning countries were in virtual water trade surplus with China and eased water shortages. Russia had the largest net imported virtual water from China. Furthermore, the proportion of the grey water footprint that China exported to the spanning countries was much higher than that imported, no matter from the whole or different geographical regions. Moreover, more than half of the countries' virtual water trade with China conformed to the virtual water strategy, which helped to ease water crises. Furthermore, the products that they exported to China were mainly advantageous products that each spanning countries have. Virtual water trade is a new perspective to explore the Belt and Road. Agricultural products trade with China definitely benefits both the countries along the Belt and Road and China from the perspective of virtual water. The findings are beneficial for the water management of the countries along the Belt and Road and China, alleviating water shortages, encouraging the rational allocation of water resources in the various departments. They can provide references for optimizing trade structures as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper determines how the Tunisian trade balance reacts to exchange rate changes during the post liberalization period, 1993:01 to 2014:03. To achieve this, a state space specification technique is employed to estimate a trade balance model for Tunisia. Our findings suggest that the real effective exchange rate has a significant impact on the trade balance of Tunisia, showing oscillating effects that can be best described by a “W-curve.” [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the international spillover effects of China's monetary policy shock on macro and financial variables in 26 countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) from 2000 to 2019. We find that a surprise Chinese monetary tightening brings about a widening in the short-term interest rate spread, a drop in the equity price, nominal depreciation against the RMB and real depreciation, and an improvement in the trade balance, on average, across the 26 B&R countries. Moreover, substantial heterogeneous effects emerge in the responses of the foreign real exchange rate and the trade balance in different groups in terms of the 26 countries' trade weights with China, capital openness, and national income levels. Finally, all the empirical evidence reveals that the expenditure switching effect plays an important role in facilitating the international transmission of China's monetary policy shock. • Estimates China's monetary policy shock series via a large Bayesian VAR model. • Examines the cross-border transmission of the shock via local projections. • Finds significant spillover effects of China' monetary policy shock abroad. • Finds heterogeneities in the spillover effects for different country groups. • Finds the expenditure switching effect is key in the monetary policy transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United Kingdom (UK) construction industry is world renowned for its volatile boom and bust cycle, its inefficiencies, heavy environmental impact and recurring budget and programme overruns. The Construction 2025 Strategy was published by the UK Government and industry leaders with a vision of changing the industry for the better using four key targets i.e., reduction in construction projects duration, operational cost, level of greenhouse gas emissions, and import/export trade gap. This paper investigates whether a greater uptake in modern methods of construction (MMC) could help us achieve these targets. Key insights and findings from the existing literature on MMCs cost, time, greenhouse gas emissions and trade factors were analysed with strong indications of MMCs benefit to the targets. By using snowball sampling a quantitative survey was conducted on 134 professional working in the Architectural, Engineering and Construction sectors of UK with 23 questions on the four key targets. Cronbach's Alpha and Pearson correlation analysis techniques were employed in conjunction with factor ranking to determine the internal validity, factor links and most important factors. The results showed that the majority of respondents believed that MMC could help us achieve the construction 2025 targets, with a similarity index ranking revealing that MMC would be of the most benefit to the greenhouse gas emissions and trade targets, however, all factors ranked tightly together. This body of research will benefit the UK Government, construction associations and industrial key stakeholders in their pursuit of reaching the reduction targets, and with only three years until the deadline, there is a strong chance they will promote MMC in the industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have noted that, unexpectedly, Germany's dramatic expansion of wind and solar energy coincided with a reduction of short-term balancing reserves. This observation has been dubbed the "German Balancing Paradox". This paper provides further and updated evidence: since 2011, wind and solar energy have nearly doubled while both reserve requirements and reserve use have declined by 50%. The paper quantitatively explores one reason for reduced balancing needs: increased and improved short-term wholesale electricity trading on the intraday market. Trading is now commonly done around the clock and based on quarter-hour, rather than full-hour, contracts. The shift to quarter-hourly products alone explains a decrease in balancing energy by 17%. There is also strong evidence that market parties respond efficiently to imbalance charges, suggesting that incentive-based approaches to electricity balancing work. • Since 2011 wind and solar energy nearly doubled; balancing energy decreased by 50%. • One reason for this is the expansion of short-term electricity trading. • It is now common to trade electricity around the clock, and on a 15-min basis. • In general, the paper finds support for efficient short-term electricity markets. • Good market design allows integrating large volumes of renewable energy at low cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Net physical exports grew from 6 to 610 million tons between 1900 and 2016. • Greater exports in the last three years than during 3 centuries of colonial rule. • Andean countries specialized in sub-soil exports, the rest on land-based. • Change in the destination of physical exports from Western to Eastern economies. • Unfavourable trade relationship with the world throughout the period. Latin America has long played a key role in the global provision of natural resources. Most of the continent's economies are net exporters of low-value, primary products and importers of manufactured goods at a high price. This pattern of specialised trade has highly negative consequences for economic development, the environment, and the local population's wellbeing. Yet to date, little empirical evidence has been collected on Latin America's total contribution to the rest of the world's regions in historical perspective. Applying the Material Flow Accounting methodology, this paper estimates the physical and monetary trade of 16 Latin American economies between 1900 and 2016. Our results show that: (i) yearly net exports of materials went from 4 Mt to 610 Mt between 1900 and 2016, and greatly accelerated since the World War II. (ii) Latin America is a net exporter of most types of materials (fossil fuels, non-energy minerals and biomass), so it harbours socio-environmental problems associated with different types of extractivism. (iii) Different regional export patterns exist: Andeans export subsoil (mining and energy carriers) while the rest export soil (land-based products). The countries with the lowest net exports are the smallest in size and with the highest population density. (iv) Europe and the USA have historically received most of the imports, but since the end of the twentieth century, the Southeast Asia region is the biggest importer of materials from Latin America. (v) The price received for exported material is much lower than the price paid for imported material; and (vi) various historical periods can be differentiated regarding the relationship between economic growth and physical trade balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Being the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world, China also possesses enormous regional disparities in terms of carbon dioxide emissions. Significant carbon emission flows from developed regions to undeveloped regions through inter-regional trade have been observed in China. In order to examine the determining factors of such virtual carbon flows, an index decomposition analysis was conducted to investigate emissions embodied in trades among eight regions, which were grouped with recourse to the latest available provincial I/O tables in China. This paper finds that trade balance and energy intensity are two most salient factors with regard to interregional carbon flows. In the largest outsourcing region, the northwest region of China, the two factors account for 35.6–59.1% of the total carbon surplus, respectively. Thus, China is experiencing more ‘efficiency losses’ than ‘efficiency gains’ resulting from carbon transfers. In order to switch to a future “efficiency gain” situation, policies and supports for technology innovation in and transfer to inland regions, as well as enhanced technology standards for expanded carbon intensive productions in less developed regions are suggested to complement the current policy of carbon intensity target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2010.04.004 Byline: Andrea Ferrero Abstract: The US external deficits have been the most striking manifestation of global imbalances. This paper investigates the contribution of productivity growth, demographics and fiscal policy in accounting for the evolution of the US external imbalances against industrialized countries during the last three decades. Productivity growth plays a dominant role. Demographics explain a non-negligible and nearly permanent component of the US trade deficit. Furthermore, the international demographic transition is crucial for large US external imbalances to be consistent with the persistent decline of world real interest rates observed in the data. Fiscal policy is of minor importance. Author Affiliation: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY 10045, USA Article History: Received 26 June 2008; Revised 6 April 2010; Accepted 6 April 2010 Article Note: (footnote) [star] I am indebted to David Backus, Pierpaolo Benigno, and especially Mark Gertler for their guidance and advice. I am grateful to the editor of this journal, Robert King, the associate editor, Mario Crucini, and an anonymous referee for useful criticisms and suggestions, and to Cedric Tille for his discussion. I have also benefited from comments by seminar participants at various universities, institutions and conferences. All errors are exclusively my own responsibility. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or of the Federal Reserve System.

This paper presents a pool trading model within a local energy community considering home energy management systems (HEMSs) and other consumers. A transparent mechanism for market clearing is proposed to incentivise active prosumers to trade their surplus energy within a rule-based pool market in the local energy community. A price-based demand response program (PBDRP) is considered to increase the consumers' willingness to modify their consumption. The mathematical optimization problem is a standard mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem to allow for rapid assessment of the trading market for real energy communities which have a considerable number of consumers. This allows for novel energy trading strategies amongst different clients in the model and for the integration of a pool energy trading model at the level of the local energy community. The objective function of the energy community is to minimize the overall bills of all participants while fulfilling their demands. Two different scenarios have been evaluated, independent and integrated operation modes, to show the impacts of coordination amongst different end-users. Results show that through cooperation, end-users in the local energy community market can reduce the total electricity bill. This is shown in a 16.63% cost reduction in the independent operation and a 21.38% reduction in the integrated case. Revenues for active consumers under coordination increased compared to independent operation of the HEMS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policymakers in less developed countries (LDCs) usually support competitive devaluations to improve the trade balance (TB). In this paper, we estimate the effects of appreciated and depreciated real exchange rates (RER) in the TB of Argentina and Brazil during the period, 1990-2010 using co-integration tests for non-stationary data and vector error correction models (VECM). The estimations confirmed the existence of a long-term relationship among the TB and the RER and foreign and domestic incomes for the countries during opposite RER policies. Based on our estimations, the Marshall-Lerner condition held during periods of more flexible and depreciated RER, and the estimation of the general impulse response functions demonstrated that devaluations in both countries did not follow a J-curve pattern in the short-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new framework for reconciling contrasting interpretations of the impact of world commodity prices on the Australian economy. Focusing on the relative price of commodities to other goods and services rather than the real exchange rate, it shows that a commodity price boost alters the composition, but not the level of GDP, while simultaneously raising national expenditure and potentially creating a trade deficit which widens further with autonomous expenditure increases. Immigration and foreign investment facilitates long run economic growth, although this further contracts the noncommodity sector of the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper we study how international trade allows the geographical separation between the place where carbon emissions occur and the place where income from those emissions is derived. We do so by studying the carbon emissions enabled by the primary inputs of products downstream along the production chain. We find that 18% of global carbon emissions are enabled abroad and that Developed Economies, Fossil Fuel Exporters and Asia account for 80% of the downstream emissions enabled by international trade. Both Developed Economies and Fossil Fuel Exporters exhibit a positive trade balance of enabled emissions while for Asia the opposite is true. Developed Economies and Fossil Fuel Exporters enable emissions mainly through the export of manufactured products (690Mt) and fossil fuels (684Mt), respectively, while Asia exhibits an outflow of enabled emissions through the import of fossil fuels (209Mt). The measurement of enabled emissions allows the understanding of how a region's income is derived from carbon emissions occurring abroad. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper examines the effectiveness of US macroeconomic policy in an open economy model focused on the exchange rate and trade balance. Yearly data cover the period of the dollar float from 1974 to 2009. Monetary expansion raises output weakly but depreciates the dollar and lowers the trade balance. Fiscal "expansion" decreases output. There is a polar deficit effect between the government budget and trade balance. These results question a number of standard policy prescriptions. The implied structural coefficients suggest rethinking a number of accepted theoretical assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper analyses the impact of FDI in Romania on macroeconomic aggregates of GDP, exports, imports, trade balance, current account and, balance of external payments, focusing on the relationship between main determinants of FDI efficiency for host and origine countries. A special attention is paid to the role of reinvested and expatriated profits of spillovers, transfer, prices and structural patterns of Romania''s FDI, under the circumstances of current economic and financial crisis, in an international comparative context. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Global trade is increasingly being challenged by observations of growing burden shifting, in particular of environmental problems. This paper presents the first worldwide calculations of shifted burden based on material flow indicators, in particular direct and indirect physical trade balances. This study covers the period between 1962 and 2005 and includes between 82 and 173 countries per year. The results show that indirect trade flow volumes have increased to around 41 billion tonnes in 2005. The traded resources with the highest share of associated indirect flows are iron, hard coal, copper, tin and increasingly palm oil. Regarding the burden balance between regions, Europe is the biggest shifter whereas Australia and Latin America are the largest takers of environmental burden due to resource extraction. To evaluate the findings from a global perspective, the results are analysed in terms of resource flow induced environmental pressure related to a country's land area in terms of total and per capita area. Resource endowment and population density seem to be more relevant in determining the physical trade balance, including indirect flows, than income level. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper we construct bilateral emission trade balances (ETB) for The Netherlands with 17 regions and compare results for 1996 and 2007 for three different greenhouse gasses. We establish a cross-sectional analysis of bilateral ETBs into a volume of trade, composition and technology effect. In order to analyze the driving forces of changes over time we perform a structural decomposition analysis of embodied import and export emissions. The main findings are that the embodied import emissions have increased by 37% whereas export emissions increased by only 3%, which is primarily driven by CO2. The 2007 bilateral balances are positive with OECD countries but negative with economies such as Russia, Africa and China. The analyses demonstrate that the worsening of the ETB is to a large extent caused by the changing composition of trade: the Dutch economy increasingly exports clean products and imports dirty products. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A re-thinking and clear understanding of the factors underlying a country's balance of trade position is needed as the global trade regime becomes more liberalized. The relationship between the overall trade balance and its determinants as propounded in the standard models may not necessarily be the same with the bilateral trade balances. This study has developed a model of bilateral trade balance that captures the effects of all factors influencing trade balance as suggested by elasticity, absorption, and monetary approaches and the popular Gravity Model with some extensions. Specifically, the present paper postulates that the relative factors determine the trading pattern, and hence the trade balance of a country in bilateral trade with partners while in the earlier models absolute factors determine the trade balance. Using standard panel data techniques the model is empirically tested and the results show significant effects of all the relative factors on the bilateral trade balance of Bangladesh in trading with her partners. The robustness check of the model ensures the validity of the specification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Having defined the Colonial Surplus, this paper re-estimates it for Indonesia during the Cultivation System of 1831-1877. Having questioned the standard figures for the positive balance (batig slot) and estimates from the Indies Balance of Payments of the colonial surplus, it rejects them as being much too low because their method of calculating exports is incorrect. Thereafter, it investigates recently-compiled primary data from the Netherlands Trading Company, from the latest Netherlands Balance of Payments, and from the Indies government product sales. It concludes that their data are more reliable and give a new estimate for the total colonial surplus during this period, up to four times higher than the standard estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper assesses the macroeconomic impacts in terms of GDP, trade balance and employment of large-scale bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land. An input–output model is developed with which the direct, indirect and induced macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production and agricultural intensification, which is needed to make agricultural land become available for bioenergy production, are assessed following a scenario approach. The methodology is applied to a case study of Argentina. The results of this study reveal that large-scale pellet production in 2015 would directly increase GDP by 4%, imports by 10% and employment by 6% over the reference situation in 2001. When accounting for indirect and induced impacts, GDP increases by 18%, imports by 20% and employment by 26% compared to 2001. Agricultural intensification reduces but does not negate these positive impacts of bioenergy production. Accounting for agricultural intensification, the increase in GDP as a result of bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land would amount to 16%, 20% in imports and 16% in employment compared to 2001. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós [Hoffmaister, A. W., & Roldós, J. E. (2001). The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries: Brazil and Korea. Journal of Macroeconomics, 23, 213–239] and Prasad [Prasad, E.S. (1999). International trade and the business cycle. Economic Journal, 109, 588–606]. The model is then used to analyse the sources of China''s trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China''s trade balance are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China''s trade ‘imbalance’. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper considers the impacts of discrete exchange rate changes in open economies with net foreign exchange liabilities and assets under the dollar standard. The author finds that the combination of wealth, price, investment, and indirect investment effects (when present) increases the complexity of predicting current account movements following exchange rate changes, which in many cases lead to ambiguous results. Because exchange rate changes can no longer be separated from domestic price-level and absorption effects, except in special cases, they cannot be used predictably, to adjust the trade balance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In the new millennium two developments have dominated the international economic situation: the persistence of high oil price and, consequently, the worsening of the U.S. trade deficit. In this paper I argue that it is possible to set forth an alternative explanation of U.S. trade deficit mainly considering a possible microeconomics missing link, taking in account the “twin nature” of the U.S. trade deficit and conjecturing that U.S. trade deficit can be explained as the result of a convergence of the Chinese and U.S. long run interest, in order to obtain a less energy intensive long run growth. So, I set forth the idea that the U.S., as the future exporter of the New Clean Technology, is a very attractive feature for China and this is a possible answer to the question: “Why should China continue to accumulate dollar reserves?” [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The paper identifies the effect of changing patenting priorities in the emerging global leather trade. A landscape of invention portfolios generated through research and development in global leather sector has been investigated covering a three-year aggregated reference period of 1998–2000 relative to 1988–1990. Patents have been classified based on country of origin, applicant type and subject areas. Changing direction of global R&D in leather in various subject areas as indicated by generation of patents has been mapped. Technology trends have been analyzed. The trends indicate that product oriented research and bio-product alternatives to chemical inputs in leather processing are gaining higher significance and interest in leather research. The relationship between the balance of trade in leather world during 1998–2000 and the growth of patenting practices has also been studied. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]