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This paper surveys the first stage in the development of models of endogenous growth over the two decades between 1952 and 1973, including seminal works by Arrow, Frankel, Phelps, Uzawa, and others as faculty and graduate students who interacted in the Stanford–Chicago–MIT–Yale Nexus. The paper also deals with American Economic Association (AEA) and Econometric Society (ES) conference sessions over the period 1964–1968 on growth, technical progress, and innovations and with the contributions in the 1967 Shell volume, in addition to dissertations, working papers, and book chapters by those involved in the “first wave” over the period 1965–1973. Finally, the paper considers the initial efforts at building more sophisticated models based on technical progress, human capital, increasing returns and imperfect competition, and the incompatibility between increasing returns with competitive equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper surveys the contributions of David Cass, Tjalling Koopmans, and Edmond Malinvaud over the decades during which modern optimal growth theory was developed. By utilizing material ranging from dissertations, drafts, and working papers through conference presentations, discussions, and published papers, we show that both Malinvaud and Cass had significant impacts on the evolution of Koopman's thought, and the development of his part of what is known as “the Cass–Koopmans model.” Based on our findings, we conclude that the modern optimal growth model should include the contributions of Malinvaud, and be retitled “the Cass–Malinvaud–Koopmans” model accordingly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents abstracts of papers presented at the Economic History Association's 2012 annual meeting on topics including the history of trade and transport costs, the the economic history of cities, and the relationship between railroads and economic development.

After the publication of the Government's 'Levelling Up' White Paper, this paper reviews the role of institutions and governance structures across English regions in tackling spatial inequality and low productivity. It considers the recent history and changing roles of local and regional organisations and the overarching policy frameworks that oversee them as a key element of tackling spatial inequality and low productivity. Specifically, the paper looks at the frequent changes to institutional arrangements supporting economic development and the process of allocating competitive funds to local and regional bodies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comments on the articles published in the March 1971 issue of the `Journal of Economic History,' which deal with economic development. Differences of Olmstead's papers from Davis and Payne; Role of New York City's mutual banks as investors.

This paper deals with the development of growth models from the optimal one-sector neoclassical approach of Cass–Malinvaud–Koopmans vintage, through two-sector, multisector, and turnpike models, and proceeds to discuss their displacement by the single-sector stochastic growth model. We also focus on the definitional shift regarding the turnpike. This is done by surveying both unpublished and published work by Uzawa, Cass, Koopmans, and McKenzie regarding growth and the turnpike, the cross-fertilization between them, and how this brought about the conflation of optimality and the turnpike, and the metamorphosis of the notion of the turnpike, from that of Dorfman–Samuelson Solow, to the Koopmans–McKenzie “amalgam” of models. Finally, the appearance of endogenous growth models, based on the work of Shell and Uzawa, is dealt with. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Comments on several articles about the economic development of the United States. Factors that changed income distribution in the country; Arguments on the growth of demand from capital-intensive subsectors.

This paper examines the crowded landscape of conferences and organizations within which the International Foundation for Science (IFS) was shaped in the early 1970s. The IFS aimed to support scientists from developing countries, circumventing the bureaucracy of established international organizations such as UNESCO and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The new foundation was a potential rival to such institutions, which ironically provided the conditions essential to its emergence. Their conferences, board meetings and assemblies, where scientists and policy makers convened, provided key infrastructure for the development of the IFS. This infrastructure appears simultaneously both as an almost invisible feature of international science policy, and as a political problem. The solution to this problem was Stockholm: a geographical place that was also placeless, occupying both national and international status, desirable in its political, scientific and geographical neutrality. In an organizational context, academies and scientific societies who found their role circumscribed by existing international institutions used the IFS to argue for their particular role and expertise in funding and promoting scientific development. Geographically and politically, neutral Sweden provided a setting which was located between East and West, and which added to the country's own reputation for championing the causes of developing nations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a multi-faceted socio-political movement in twentieth-century China, the Cultural Revolution (1966–1976) witnessed conflict and social upheaval. This paper investigates its economic legacies, exploiting geographic variation in revolutionary intensity, measured by the number of resulting deaths. Using a newly assembled county-level panel dataset over five decades, we find worse-affected areas performed slightly better at baseline, but were slower to industrialize. This effect was large in the early 1980s before diminishing to become insignificant by 2000. Using individual-level census data, we find more-exposed cohorts are less likely to obtain higher education degrees and to work in professional and entrepreneurial occupations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the evolution of gender equality in Sweden during a phase characterized by industrialization, urbanization, and demographic transition. To this end, we build a database with quantitative indicators to construct a spatial Historical Gender Gap Index. We find that after a period of stagnation, Sweden made significant progress in closing the gender gap from the 1940s onward to reach the high level of gender equality that it is now famous for. The empirical exploration of the relationship between gender equality and economic development reveals that regions displaying higher gender equality performed economically better than less gender-equal regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the optimal use of ‘dirty’ technologies for economic development and when to stop polluting (either temporarily or forever). This question is addressed within a real option framework where three different kinds of options arise: for stopping pollution temporarily or forever and for re-starting. The possibility to shelve a polluting technology temporarily allows for a more conservationist policy. Costs associated with the option of a re-start lead to hystereses effects that complicate empirical cross-country comparisons of environmental policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comments on several articles dealing with industrialization. Criticisms on a research of author Franklin Mendels on the textile industry.

For several decades historians of science have interrogated the relationship between empire and science, largely focusing on European imperial powers. At the same time, scholars have sought alternatives to an early diffusionist model of the spread of modern science, seeking to capture the multi-directional and dialogic development of science and its institutions in most parts of the globe. The papers in this special issue illuminate these questions with added attention to particular claims about the exceptionalism – or not – of Islamic societies' approach to science, modernity and politics. Each contribution centres individuals and groups who engaged with science theoretically or practically, taking seriously their analytical categories and how they understood and grappled with the social, economic and intellectual transformations happening around them. Collectively, these studies make the case for Middle Eastern and Ottoman history as useful sites for furthering our field's understanding of processes of the globalization of science and how authority, politics and science have been and continue to be interconnected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to understand the link between resource governance and investor expectations in resource-rich countries. We test whether voluntary membership in the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), a public-private partnership that promotes transparency and accountability in the extractives sector, behaves as a credible signalling mechanism to investors that governments in resource-rich countries can manage resource revenue and adhere to sustainable fiscal policies in the medium and long run. Using an interrupted time series analysis coupled with a fixed effects model, we examine whether investor expectations on the price of sovereign debt behave as a credible signalling mechanism in the presence of certain conditions. Results indicate that in some cases there is a significant change in spread on the default price of sovereign debt as a result of announcement of either EITI candidacy or EITI compliance. However, it is clear that EITI membership alone is not a sufficient signal to investors that a country can effectively manage its resource revenues in the long run because the result of EITI implementation is heavily influenced by country-specific conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of the long relationship between gender equality and economic growth is hampered by the lack of information and resources on the various dimensions of gender equality. This paper is a first attempt to assess the size of the gender gap and investigate its relationship with economic growth from a historical perspective. Exploiting a unique census-based dataset of 86 French counties in the mid-nineteenth century, I construct a historical gender gap index measuring the size of the gap between men and women in three critical areas: economic opportunities, educational attainment, and health. A county comparison allows me to identify the strengths and weaknesses of French counties in closing the gender gap. I find that France can be divided into two main areas, the North and the South. In particular, the Northern counties that have done most to narrow the gap display better economic performance. Boys' and girls' education and family structures appear to be crucial determinants of gender equality. Gender equality is positively and significantly associated with economic performance. Accounting for the multi-dimensions of gender equality is crucial for economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Marshall Plan (1948–1952) was the largest aid transfer in history. This paper estimates its effects on Italy's postwar economic development. It exploits differences between Italian provinces in the value of reconstruction grants they received. Provinces that could modernize their infrastructure more quickly experienced higher increases in agricultural production, especially for perishable crops. In the same provinces, we observe larger investments in labor-saving machines, the entry of more firms into the industrial sector, and a larger expansion of the industrial and service workforces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accounts of Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen's career usually focus on his pioneer contributions to mathematical economics during the 1930s and his later conversion to a critical approach to economic theory anchored on the entropy law. These disparate moments, however, were connected by Georgescu-Roegen's strong attraction to the study of problems afflicting less developed societies. This began with his work on the agrarian economy of his native Romania, in the late 1940s, under the auspices of Harvard's Russian Research Center. Thenceforth, he embarked on a journey that spawned his early interest in Leontief-type linear models, an extended tour of Southeast Asia commissioned by Vanderbilt University's Graduate Program in Economic Development, and several visits to Brazil during the 1960s. The paper highlights these lesser-known aspects of Georgescu-Roegen's trajectory, examining how he built on neo-populist writings from the early twentieth century to construct an alternative to the mainstream emphasis on industrialization policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This special issue contains a selection of six articles in the field of environmental and resource economics, which were presented in INFER workshops and supported events over the last two years. The topics include the effects of income inequality and freedom of the press on environmental stringency; the trade-environment nexus in China; the behavior of cross-country growth rates with respect to resource abundance and dependence; a stochastic frontier analysis to show that technological change is biased more towards energy rather than labor; how recycling and environmental taxes can affect the imbalances between the availability of and the demand for rare earth elements; and the interaction between demographic features and environmental constraints in Caribbean small island developing states. The papers include three empirical contributions and three methodological approaches, which help to improve our understanding of these topics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review article seeks to build bridges between mainstream African history and the more historically oriented branch of the 'new' economic history of Africa. We survey four central topics of the new economic history of Africa — growth, trade, labor, and inequality — and argue that the increased use of quantitative methods and comparative perspectives have sharpened views on long-term trajectories of economic development within Africa and placed the region more firmly into debates of global economic development. The revival of African economic history opens new opportunities for Africanist historians to enrich the interdisciplinary approaches they have taken to study questions of demography, poverty, slavery, labor, inequality, migration, state formation, and colonialism. These fruits, however, can only be reaped if the institutional boundaries between the fields of history and economic history are softened and both sides engage in greater mutual engagement. Our paper aims to move closer to a shared vision on the benefits and limitations of varying quantitative methods, and how these approaches underpin both more and less convincing narratives of long-term African development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the contribution of Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit to the development of economic theory in the 20th century. Our argument in this paper is twofold. First, we contend that this book embodied what had been the common knowledge of early neoclassical economics prior to World War II (WWII). Second, we also argue that embryonic to Knight's account of economics were two divergent approaches to economic thought that emerged after WWII. The first approach, what has come to be known as microeconomics, is characterized by utility maximization under fixed price, income, and institutional parameters that approximate equilibrium. This first approach is distinct from a second approach, referred to as price theory, in which prices are not sufficient statistics, as in microeconomics, but operate as guides to consumption and production decisions under alternative institutional arrangements. This second approach not only represented the continuation of the mainline of economic thought from its classical and early neoclassical roots. It also embodies the basis for Knight's understanding of uncertainty, profit and entrepreneurship, as well as its implications for economic organization and social progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the role of economic history in economics and the views of Modern Economic Historian on how relevant the past is to economics today. Topics include the appeal of modern economic historians to the broader economic audience, how historical events have affected economic development and how the relevance of economic history is reflected in the increase in economic history publications.

This paper aims to test the relation among militarization, CO2 emissions, economic growth and energy consumption in G7 countries from 1985 to 2015 via panel methods. Long- and short-run coefficients and the causal relationship between the variables are important for G7 countries' energy policies and strategy. Cointegration among CO2 emissions, militarization, energy consumption and economic growth was determined by using panel Johansen and panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) methods. Further, the panel trivariate causality test was applied and unidirectional causalities from militarization to CO2 emissions and from energy consumption to CO2 emissions were found. The evidence of bidirectional causality between per capita GDP and militarization, between per capita GDP and energy consumption, and between energy consumption and militarization was determined. The paper recommends that environmental and energy policies must recognize the differences in the relation between militarization, energy consumption and economic growth in order to maintain sustainable economic growth in the G7 countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our field has enjoyed amazing growth over the years. Is this a good thing or a bad thing, or just a thing? Good: Growth sounds good. It is hard to imagine a politician arguing against jobs. There are more people working in the field than ever before, and they are publishing more and more, and creating more and more value. What could be wrong with that? Bad: Whatever you measure you get. We are all under too much pressure to publish too much too quickly. Students are graduating these days with more publications than what used to be expected for tenure. So many people are publishing so much that no one has time to think great thoughts, or take time to learn about things that may not be directly relevant to the next publication. Neutral: Inflation is a fact of life. There are long-term macro trends on publication rates that are beyond our control. These trends hold over tens and hundreds of years, and will continue over the foreseeable future. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Over the past three decades, analysis of dynamics has come to the forefront of macroeconomic theory. A key impetus for progress on this front has been the connections developed between equilibrium growth theory, on one hand, and the field of nonlinear dynamics, on the other. Kazuo Nishimura's work has been at the center of these advances, and the lines of research he initiated remain an exciting area of study for young researchers with strong technical skills. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Copyright of China Quarterly is the property of Cambridge University Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We examine how the composition of residential energy consumption and its sensitivity with respect to income changes. The paper characterizes the energy transition, analyzing the behavior of income elasticity of energy demand along the economic development stages by fuel types. The results indicate a nonlinear relationship between income and domestic energy consumption that can be explained by two factors. First, along the income distribution, consumption of modern fuels increases, replacing traditional and transitional fuels until modern fuels drive all of the growth in domestic energy demand. Second, at the highest income levels, income elasticity starts to decrease, leading to concavity in energy consumption. That is, the income elasticity of residential energy demand follows an inverse U-shape along the world income distribution. This finding suggests that at high income levels, residential energy consumption shows satiation and net energy-saving effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While legal analyses of political economy typically centre on events and processes within the market, this discussion argues that contemporary dilemmas requires attention to labour and productive activity at its edges and beyond. Questions surrounding labour provide an unparalleled vantage point from which to assess how groups are differentially situated within the economy, especially at moments of economic crisis and transformation. The constitutive role of law in market relations, in turn, makes legal analysis fundamental to understanding how risks and rewards at work are distributed. Reflecting on the role of macroeconomic governance to work, evident in times of crisis in particular, and drawing upon concepts and tools developed within critical legal thought, this paper analyses two sites of labour, unpaid household care work and informal labour, that are at the centre of distributive struggles around work now. As the historical separation of the household and market labour discloses, transformations of legal form, and classification played a critical role in the simultaneous production of waged labour and valueless care. Similar processes are underway in labour markets now; thus, understanding the legal constitution of value and of work itself remains central to questions of inequality now. Bargaining analysis as well as taxonomies of family law suggest the significance of a wide range of legal rules and their interaction to labour market outcomes and the position of workers. The analysis of informal work points in a similar direction, as contract, competition, and corporate law and beyond are all implicated in the growth of informality and precarity at work. Finally, uncovering the legal foundations of racial fragmentation at work requires attention to multiple legal regimes as well as the conceptual and ideological commitments that sustain them. All engage questions about the role, and transformation, of legal form, classification and consciousness within contemporary political economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across scholarship and legal practice, family law is widely recognised as a subject that is inextricable from the social and cultural forces that shape our understanding of how families work and how they are positioned within society. This paper argues that it is now time to build upon this by integrating an explicit awareness of political context into how we teach family law. This is because teachers of family law are now faced with an urgent challenge: the encroachment of neoliberal governance into all corners of family justice. Neoliberal ideas are far from new, but they are increasingly shaping dominant ideas about what family law is for, who should be entitled to use it and, even in some circumstances, questioning the very legitimacy of family law or legal processes as means for supporting families experiencing breakdown. In response to this challenge, this paper advocates the importance of guiding students to look beyond family law doctrine in order to consider how political initiatives, trends and debates have the power to shape the procedures and processes through which family disputes are resolved. It will argue that drawing this contextual awareness into family law studies is crucially important to ensure that the future development of family law as both a scholarly discipline and an area of practice is centred on the needs and lived experiences of families who need it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the mechanisms that determine the "vanishing effect of finance" on economic growth found in recent studies. Based on both current (171 countries, 1960–2014) and historical (21 OECD countries, 1870–2009) data, the results show that financial development promotes growth in poorer countries by increasing education and investment, and by decreasing fertility. The relevance of these transmission channels declines when countries become richer. The growth effect of the financial sector in high-income countries primarily depends on new ideas and potentials for innovation projects. Consequently, the major decline in factor productivity growth since the early 2000s has contributed to the reduction in the financial sector's average effect on growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits the long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth by exploring the impact of inflation on investment. I illustrate that inflation may have a positive effect on growth by mitigating the liquidity risks of investment projects. Together with the traditional effect of the "inflation tax" on investment, a hump-shaped relationship between inflation and economic growth can be obtained in a calibrated model, which is consistent with the US postwar data. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the degree of financial development and the magnitude of the aggregate liquidity demand help explain the mixed empirical findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares Japanese and Chinese infrastructure development strategies in post-Soviet Central Asia (CA) by analyzing the similarities and differences in the approaches of the two Asian economic powers. This paper develops several arguments with respect to the Japanese and Chinese approaches to infrastructure development in CA. This paper argues that the discourse of mutually exclusive interests in China and Japan's development of various infrastructure-related projects in CA is empirically unproven. Most of the Chinese engagements emphasize the creation of energy and transportation infrastructure (construction), while Japan's main areas of focus are the maintenance, modernization, and rehabilitation of current infrastructure. Thus, this paper suggests that China positions itself as CA's leading economic partner, while Japan is CA's leading assistance provider. These two roles have different implications. Furthermore, the current infrastructure engagements of Japan (from assistance to partnership) and China (from exploitation to contribution to the region) in CA demonstrate both countries’ attempts to adjust and search for new opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Underlying this paper is the conviction that it is of utmost importance that business ethics should indeed become an integral part of business culture in all, and therefore also in developing countries. It is not to be denied that business ethics has to a much larger extent become part of the business culture in developed countries than in developing countries. In this paper, I first of all wish to provide an explanation for the fact that business ethics is fighting an uphill battle in becoming part of the business culture in developing countries. Secondly I want to give a thumbnail sketch of the preconditions that have to be fulfilled in order to stimulate the development of a moral business culture in developing countries. In order to achieve these goals I will focus mainly on Africa, and more specifically on South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlike standard accounts, recent research in the history of macroeconomics has given increasing attention to the Old Keynesians' criticisms of the New Classical Economics. In this paper, I address the case of Edmond Malinvaud, who began opposing the New Classical Economics from the early 1980s and did so throughout the following thirty years. This study shows that his opposition was radical, i.e., multi-dimensional and systematic, and owes to the methodology and the practice of macroeconometric modeling. In turn, this twofold result sheds light on the nature and the rationale of the Old Keynesians' opposition to the New Classical Economics from the 1970s onwards, which can be interpreted along the same lines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This issue of MOR closes out volume 11, which has witnessed the transition of the journal's domain to attract and publish social science research underlying an across-the-board range of themes in management, organizations, strategy, and public policy in the context of China and all transforming economies. The challenge for MOR is to be open to indigenous theories of management, organization, entrepreneurship, innovation, and economic development. However, this is not about contradicting the accumulated body of extant management and international business scholarship. At its core the intellectual challenge is to recognize that history, stage of economic development, institutional configuration, cultural differences, and national ambitions have the potential to give rise to new forms of organization and management. The challenge for MOR is to encourage and publish such research that meets the state-of-the-art scholarship criteria of the social sciences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a vertically differentiated product model, the paper aims to investigate the effects of economic growth on market provision of product quality. The quality attribute considered is the environmental friendliness of products. Economic growth is modeled as a shift in income distribution. It shows that the effect of economic growth depends on the form it takes. A growth in income that is uniform across consumers improves the cleanup levels adopted by both firms. However, a growth in income that is accompanied by changes in income inequality may result in the lowering of one of the two qualities. More specifically, if the growth in income is accompanied by increased disparities in income distribution, the quality of the (environmentally) inferior variant is reduced. This has serious implications for the poor consumers if the product has safety or health hazards. The paper suggests a regulatory measure to prevent such deterioration in the quality of the inferior variant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 1997, the Department of Economics of the University of Crete has organized an annual international conference on macroeconomic analysis and international finance. The articles included in this special issue are refereed versions of papers presented at the 17th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance held at the University Campus, Rethymno, 30 May–1 June 2013, and submitted to Macroeconomic Dynamics in an open call for papers. The central theme of this Special Issue is Growth, Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, and Financial Frictions. The topics discussed in this issue are endogenous growth and public investment and taxation; optimal inflation and fiscal and monetary policy; foreign reserve accumulation and China's exchange rate policy; and liquidity shocks and financial frictions. We begin the Special Issue with an overview of these papers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a dynamic open-economy macroeconomic model, this paper analyzes the motive for foreign reserve accumulation in fast-growing emerging economies. The demand for foreign reserves stems from the interaction between productivity growth and underdevelopment of the domestic financial market. As domestic firms are credit-constrained, domestic saving instruments are necessary to increase their retained earnings in order to invest in capital. The central bank plays the role of a financial intermediary and provides liquid public bonds while investing the bond proceeds abroad in the form of foreign reserves. Foreign reserve accumulation is thus part of a catching-up strategy in an economy facing financial frictions. During economic transition, foreign reserve accumulation is proved to be welfare-improving as long as private capital flows are controlled. This joint strategy enables the central bank to channel sufficient external funding to the domestic economy while keeping domestic interest rates under control to cope with positive productivity shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land expansion by existing smallholder farmers (SHFs), aka stepping-up, is a major pathway to the rise of medium-scale farmers (MSFs) in Africa. In this paper, we investigate if and how armed conflicts constrain the ability of SHFs to transition to MSFs. We find that increased conflict intensity reduces the likelihood that a SHF will expand to a larger scale, especially for farmers who rely mostly on farm incomes, rather than off-farm incomes, for their livelihoods. These findings uphold other evidence that peace and stability influence private investment, including land-based investments, that are associated with economic transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK's automotive industry has been one of the ‘star performers’ of the UK economy in recent years – unlike most other manufacturing sectors. Output has increased by over 60 per cent since 2010 and there has been over £8 billion worth of investment in the industry in the past five years. The industry supports some 800,000 jobs in the UK. It is seen as having benefitted from EU membership. So what might Brexit mean for the UK automotive sector, and its workers? This paper considers short-run impacts, before turning to the impact of uncertainty on foreign direct investment inflows and then the nature of a possible trading relationship. Some brief reflections on policy implications round off the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies local economic impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit, which are developed from a structural trade model. Average effects are predicted to be negative under both scenarios, and to be more negative under hard Brexit. The spatial variation in negative shocks across areas is higher in the latter case as some local areas are particularly specialised in sectors that are predicted to be badly hit by hard Brexit. Areas in the South of England, and urban areas, are harder hit by Brexit under both scenarios. Again, this pattern is explained by sector specialisation. Finally, the areas that were most likely to vote remain are those that are predicted to be most negatively impacted by Brexit [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest in the spread of human capital has grown in recent decades, as it is acknowledged to play an increasingly important role in supporting social and economic development. This paper, starting from the distinction between education – assessed by educational attainment – and literacy proficiency – that is, what people are actually able to do with the written word – examines the distribution of these properties in Italy. Results of analysis show that while the longstanding gap between the North and the South is gradually closing with regard to the distribution of educational credentials, there is still a significant difference in the acquired level of competence. There is also an unexpected result: the regions of the North-West, once the main driver of Italy's economic development, today deploy a smaller stock of human capital than the North-East and Central macro-regions. In light of these findings, improving the education system's effectiveness and creating adequate political, institutional and legal arrangements that favour the development of human capital appear to be an absolute priority for Italy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we show that state stability exhibits a persistent and robust non-monotonic relationship with economic development. Based on observations in Europe spanning from 1 to 2000 AD, regions that have historically experienced either short- or long-duration state rule on average lag behind in their local wealth today, while those that have experienced medium-duration state rule fare better. These findings support the argument that both an absence as well as an excess of state stability are bad for economic development. State instability hinders investment for growth, while too much stability is likely indicative of elite capture and subsequent stagnation of innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the impact of the construction of hydropower facilities on labor market outcomes in Norway at the turn of the twentieth century (1891–1920). The sudden breakthrough in hydropower technology provides a quasi-experimental setting, as not all municipalities had suitable natural endowments and the possible production sites were often located in remote areas. We find that hydropower municipalities experienced faster structural transformation and displayed higher occupational mobility. We interpret this as evidence that this early twentieth-century technology was skill biased, as workers in the new skilled jobs were recruited from a broad segment of the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper shows how William Barber's background as a development economist influenced his research agenda in the history of economic thought, in terms of the questions he asked and the way he approached them. The links between the history of economic theory and of policy-making are highlighted, as well as Barber's investigation of the engagement of British economists with India's economic matters throughout the time span of the British East India Company. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Companies have a share in our common responsibility to future generations. Hitherto, this responsibility has been all but neglected in the business ethics literature. This paper intends to make up for that omission. A strong case for our moral responsibility to future generations can be established on the grounds of moral rights theory, utilitarianism and justice theory. The paper analyses two practical cases in environmental policy, in order to come to grips with the complicated ethical issues involved in the responsibility to future generations. The cases deal with the management of finite energy sources and of vulnerable resources of biodiversity. The ethical issues involved in these cases have an important bearing on business ethics: future generations should be included among the stakeholders of the firm. The paper concludes with a plea to institutionalize a "third arena" for debate and deliberation on the protection of the interests of future generations, next to the arenas of the government and the market. Companies should participate in this third arena, led by a participatory ethics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comments on the articles about economic history, which appeared in the December 1965 issue of the `Journal of Economic History.' Information lacking in an essay about the new economic history by Edward Ames; Description of a paper by Herbert Ellison regarding the problem of economic development; Comments on an article by Yasukichi Yasuba et al, on the issues of the theory and policy of economic development.

This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamics of the inflation–output type of Phillips curve based on a multiple-regime smooth transition regression model using data from China. The empirical results indicate significant nonlinearities in China's Phillips curve. The relationship between inflation and output can be modeled by a four-regime smooth transition regression model in which the responses of inflation to output depend on both inflation and economic growth rates. The inflation–output type Phillips curve may be positively sloped, negatively sloped, or even vertical in the short term, depending on different business cycles. Furthermore, we analyze business cycle fluctuations based on the nonlinear Phillips curve, indicating a coexisting zone of stable inflation rate and rapid growth rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a model positing a nonlinear relationship between public investment and growth. The model is then applied to a panel of African countries, using nonlinear estimating procedures. The growth-maximizing level of public investment is estimated at about 10% of GDP, based on System GMM estimation. The paper further runs simulations, obtaining the constant optimal public investment share that maximizes the sum of discounted consumption as between 8.1% and 9.6% of GDP. Compared with the observed end-of-panel mean value of no more than 7.26%, these estimates suggest that there has been significant public underinvestment in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the processes through which scientific fields are organized over time. It is argued that new approaches in scientific work are hampered by authority structures within national systems for research and established approaches within disciplines, but that these obstacles can be overcome by means of external funding, particularly through new funding sources, as well as the international developments of an innovation. As far as the latter are concerned, they are expected to first lead to informal collaboration among scholars. In the passage of time this informal collaboration becomes more and more formalized. In order to analyse such processes the paper presents a model with three phases labelled as creating, gathering and communicating. This model is then used in an empirical study of corpus linguistics, i.e. the systematic analysis of well-defined populations of written and/or spoken language material. It is shown in the paper how corpus linguistics was developed by scientific innovators who were initially questioned. With the passage of time they created a number of international organizations, which have eventually become more and more formalized, many of them publishing their own journals. In this way the paper demonstrates the significance of organizing for the development of scientific fields. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]