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This paper undertakes a revisit of the sunk cost fallacy, which refers to the tendency of people to persist investing resources into something, even if it is destined to have no good outcome. We emphasize that the utilities associated with different alternatives are not static for decision makers, which is exactly opposite to the traditional perspective. This paper argues that the utility of an option may change due to the choice of another option, suggesting that decisions considered irrational by the traditional analytical method, i.e., sunk cost fallacy, may be rational. We propose a novel analytical method for decision making with sunk cost when considering the utility change and validate the effectiveness of this method through mathematical modeling and computational experiments. This paper mathematically describes such decision-making problems, analyzing the impact of changes in the utilities across different alternatives on decision making with a real-world example. Furthermore, we develop a two-stage stochastic optimization model for such decision-making problems and employ the sample average approximation (SAA) method to solve them. The results from computational experiments indicate that some decisions traditionally considered irrational are, in fact, rational when the utility of an option changes as a result of choosing another option. This paper, therefore, highlights the significance of incorporating utility changes into the decision-making process and stands as a valuable addition to the literature, offering a refreshed and effective decision-making method for improved decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider multi-criteria decision-making problems of selecting the best decision alternative in which the preferences of the decision maker are given in the form of quasi-orders. If the decision maker's preferences are modeled by a family of complete quasi-orders (in particular, by a parametric family of additive value functions) then a common approach to solving such problems is based on the notion of potential optimality. In this paper, we consider the case in which the decision maker's preferences are modeled by a family of incomplete quasi-orders. We suggest a new approach to selecting decision alternatives by introducing the notion of potential nondominated alternatives. Such alternatives can be regarded as candidates for the best alternative. We investigate properties of the sets of potential nondominated alternatives and, for the case of a parametric family of partial quasi-orders, we develop a method of their identification. Our development is illustrated by numerical examples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a decision-support methodology to support the development and assessment of military asset and resource strategies. The methodology is built around a system dynamics model that allows users to examine the performance of a strategy over time. The novelty of the model lies in its flexibility and ability to address questions about asset planning from both holistic and lifecycle viewpoints. From the user perspective, the decision-support methodology is structured around three phases: (1) Design an asset management strategy, (2) Evaluate strategy using system dynamics simulation model, and (3) Generate performance indicators and analyse results. The methodology is developed and used in a real case study to support the modernisation of the Australian Defence Force. This paper demonstrates that system dynamics offers useful methods to study the dynamics of supply-demand, and support the development of systemic asset and resource management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider a dynamic duopoly game where firms choose both the timing and size of their investments. The existing real options literature predominantly consists of contributions where firms have a single option to invest. This paper relaxes this assumption by giving Firm A multiple options to undertake further investments with the purpose to expand whereas Firm B only holds the option to enter the market. In this asymmetric setting we get the surprising result that, in equilibrium, Firm B invests first. If Firm A invests first, Firm A and Firm B keep on being involved in preemption games for subsequent investments until Firm B enters the market, which leads to inefficiently early investments of Firm A. When Firm B invests first, then only one preemption game is played, which leads to Firm A being free to choose its unrestricted optimal investment moments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A significant proportion of the world's population has no access to grid-based electricity and so relies on off-grid lighting solutions. Rechargeable lamp technology is gaining popularity as an alternative off-grid lighting model in developing countries. In this paper, we explore consumer behavior and the operational inefficiencies that result under this model. Specifically, we are interested in (i) measuring the impact of inconvenience (of traveling to recharge the lamp) along with the impact of liquidity constraints (because of poverty) on lamp usage and (ii) evaluating the efficacy of strategies that address these factors. We build a structural model of consumers' recharge decisions that incorporates several operational features of the low-income regions. We conducted large-scale field experiments in Rwanda in partnership with a local rechargeable lamp operator and use the resultant data to estimate and test our model. We find that the complete removal of inconvenience and liquidity constraints from the current business model results in 73% and 126% increases in both recharges and revenue, thereby suggesting that these constraints are major sources of inefficiency. By implementing simple operations-based strategies—such as starting more recharge centers, visiting consumers periodically to collect their lamps for recharge, and allowing consumers to partially recharge their lamps and pay flexibly for the recharge—more than half the benefit of completely eliminating the inefficiencies can be attained. By contrast, the price- and capacity-based strategies that vary the economic variables (i.e., the amount paid per recharge and the amount of light obtained in return) but not the operational model perform far worse than the aforementioned strategies. Overall, our analysis emphasizes the importance of managing operations effectively even in markets with cash-constrained consumers, in which firms may have a natural tendency to focus more on reducing prices. This paper was accepted by Vishal Gaur, operations management. Funding: This work was supported by the International Growth Centre; Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania; and Institut Européen d'Administration des Affaires; The Environment and Energy Partnership; Grand Challenges Canada (Stars in Global Health); INSEAD's Emerging Markets Institute; INSEAD's Randomized Controlled Trials Laboratory; the INSEAD–Wharton Alliance, and International Growth Centre. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4844. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ) factors influencing occupant satisfaction in commercial buildings in Iran, contrasting the views of building experts (architects and engineers) with those of building occupants. Employing the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP), this study focuses on the four primary IEQ factors: thermal comfort, indoor air quality, visual comfort, and acoustic comfort. The study aims to bridge the gap between expert evaluations and occupant perceptions of IEQ factors in commercial buildings in Iran. By examining the disparities in prioritising IEQ factors between these two groups, the study sheds light on the complexities of IEQ assessment and highlights the importance of considering diverse perspectives in optimising indoor environments. Our methodology includes a survey conducted among 30 building experts (15 architects and 15 building engineers) and 102 occupants, employing FAHP to derive the relative importance weights of each IEQ factor. The results highlight significant disparities between architects, engineers, and occupants in prioritising these factors. Architects emphasise visual comfort (42%), while engineers and occupants view thermal comfort (53% and 41%) as the most crucial factor for occupant satisfaction. The study underscores the complexity of IEQ in commercial buildings and the diverse perspectives influencing its assessment. It contributes to the broader discourse on optimising IEQ, emphasising the need for a comprehensive approach that encompasses both technical expertise and occupant experience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current data transactions are usually driven by data providers, and data buyers have little information about the data they will buy. In turn, this information asymmetry impacts the data providers' sales decisions. In this paper, we consider a data provider with private quality information to sell a data set to multiple potential data buyers, and the data provider signals quality information to the potential buyers by setting the price and sample set size. We study how the data provider decides the optimal trading strategy in terms of price and sample set size based on different characteristics of data buyers through a signalling game. It is found that the degree of information asymmetry and the cost of providing a sample set affect the data provider's choice of whether to signal data quality truthfully or to hide quality information. The joint signal of price and sample set is a better signalling option for data providers to achieve higher profits than the price signal alone. Tracing data trading back to the production process of datasets, the increased information asymmetry and inefficient data production make data providers more inclined to generate low-quality datasets, which adversely affects the data trading market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In group decision making (GDM), there may exist some problems that need to assign alternatives to some predefined ordered categories, which are called ordinal classification-based GDM problems. To obtain classification results that can be accepted by most decision makers (DMs), it is necessary to implement a consensus reaching process for ordinal classification-based GDM problems. In this paper, we study consensus reaching models for a new type of ordinal classification-based GDM problem, in which DMs do not provide criteria weights and category cardinalities but provide indirect and imprecise heterogeneous preference information. To do so, a consistency verification method is first proposed to check whether each DM's preference information is consistent and then a minimum adjustment optimization model is developed to modify DMs' inconsistent preference information. Afterwards, we establish some optimization models to obtain each DM's possible categories for alternatives. Followed by this, we define the consensus levels of DMs and devise some optimization models to assist DMs in adjusting alternatives' classification results and DMs' preference information at the same time. Furthermore, a maximum support degree-based method is provided to determine the consensual classification result for alternatives. Finally, a numerical application and some sensitivity analysis are provided to justify the proposed models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Portfolio selection for Stock evaluation and selection by an investor is multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem of finding the best portfolio among an efficient set of portfolios, which should be tackled by using the appropriate techniques. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is amongst the most widely used MCDM methods, which is often used in operation management. The main feature of AHP is, that, it firstly reduces the complex decision problems in hierarchical structures of objectives, criteria, sub-criteria, and alternatives and then, uses a fundamental scale to construct pairwise comparisons. The Spherical Fuzzy Sets (SFS) have many advantages in handling the uncertainty and vagueness of ordinary and 2D Fuzzy Sets (FS)s. Therefore, taking the advantage of AHP and SFSs in this paper, we modify the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) into Spherical fuzzy AHP (SFAHP). We introduce the concept of Spherical Fuzzy Preference Relation (SFPR) and develop an automatic algorithm to construct a consistent SFPR from an inconsistent one. The validity of the proposed approach is tested through an illustrative application of portfolio selection on the Pakistan Stock Exchange to make a prototype of our results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to study the production of consumption goods within a price floor carbon emission trading scheme. A stochastic Stackelberg game is set up between the environment authority (Player 1), and the manufacturer/producer (Player 2). In such a hybrid emission trading scheme, the authority sets an emissions target and producers will choose to participate in carbon trading on this basis, subject to a stochastic demand with information delayed. When the stochastic demand is determined by the market sale price and the scale of carbon emission reduction, we apply the maximum principle to obtain both the optimal production and market price. We show when the demand is determined by both the market sales price and carbon emission reduction, manufacturers are persuaded to set the market sales price first (ex ante incentive) and then proceed to a carbon trading scheme, thus providing a backward-looking advantage to manufacturers. Consequently, the manufacturer and the environmental authority can find a subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium via backward induction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the "main manufacturer-supplier" model in collaborative cooperation among firms which requires the leader to invest significant resources and bear huge risks. However, few scholars simultaneously consider innovation risks and incentive issues under the model. We construct a Stackelberg game incentive model with different cost-sharing ratios under the risk of technological innovation. We characterize the equilibrium of the model and highlight the key role played by the main manufacturer and supplier. The results are as follows: (a) Main manufacturer can implement the cost-sharing incentive strategy under certain conditions, which is, its profit coefficient is greater than 0.75 times that of supplier and the cost-sharing ratios expected coefficient is greater than the minimum threshold. (b) The optimal cost-sharing ratio is directly proportional to the profit coefficient of the main manufacturer, inversely proportional to that of the supplier, and shows an inverted U-shape function with the probability of successful technological innovation. (c)This strategy can motivate suppliers to invest more resources, reduce the investment of the main manufacturer, simultaneously increase the profits of the main manufacturer and supplier in the certain ranges of innovation success probability and profit coefficients, with significant incentive effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Consider the problem of allocating indivisible goods among agents with additive valuations, where monetary payments are not allowed. When randomization is allowed, it is possible to achieve compelling notions of fairness such as EV, which states that no agent should prefer any other agent's allocation to their own. When allocations must be deterministic, achieving exact fairness is impossible but approximate notions such as EV up to one good can be guaranteed. In "Best of Both Worlds: Ex Ante and Ex Post Fairness in Resource Allocation," H. Aziz, R. Freeman, N. Shah, and R. Vaish ask whether it is possible to achieve both types of guarantees simultaneously. More specifically, they ask whether there exists a probability distribution over deterministic allocations such that every deterministic allocation is envy-free up to one good and the distribution is exactly envy-free in expectation. The main result of the paper answers this question in the affirmative, showing that ex ante and ex post fairness need not be in conflict. We study the problem of allocating indivisible goods among agents with additive valuations. When randomization is allowed, it is possible to achieve compelling notions of fairness such as envy-freeness, which states that no agent should prefer any other agent's allocation to their own. When allocations must be deterministic, achieving exact fairness is impossible but approximate notions such as envy-freeness up to one good can be guaranteed. Our goal in this work is to achieve both simultaneously, by constructing a randomized allocation that is exactly fair ex ante (before the randomness is realized) and approximately fair ex post (after the randomness is realized). The key question we address is whether ex ante envy-freeness can be achieved in combination with ex post envy-freeness up to one good. We settle this positively by designing an efficient algorithm that achieves both properties simultaneously. The algorithm can be viewed as a desirable way to instantiate a lottery for the probabilistic serial rule. If we additionally require economic efficiency, we obtain three impossibility results that show that ex post or ex ante Pareto optimality is impossible to achieve in conjunction with combinations of fairness properties. Hence, we slightly relax our ex post fairness guarantees and present a different algorithm that can be viewed as a fair way to instantiate a lottery for the maximum Nash welfare allocation rule. Funding: This work was supported by the Office of Naval Research [Grant N00014-17-1-2621] and DST INSPIRE [Grant DST/INSPIRE/04/2020/000107]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some e‐platforms such as Amazon and JD.com are increasingly active in financing business, but theoretical research on this business is not comprehensive enough. This paper uses game theory model to compare the equilibrium of e‐platform financing (EPF) and bank financing (BF) in terms of pricing, quality, suppliers' competition, participants' profits, and consumer welfare. We find that a monopolistic supplier can always enjoy a lower loan interest rate and borrow more loans to improve production quantity or quality under EPF, which benefits to the participants and consumers. Interestingly, the e‐platform provides free loans and only profits from commission fee under some conditions. When there are two suppliers competing for the market share, the absolute advantage of EPF will change. If the supply chain or market environment is bad (production cost or commission rate is high; the potential market or initial budget is low), the e‐platform will offer lower interest rates than bank to reduce the strength gap between the suppliers; thus, the capital‐constrained supplier prefers EPF, which shows that the EPF business is an effective means to regulate upstream competition. However, when there are more competitive suppliers, the preferences of the suppliers with less initial capital are the same as the scenario of the two competitive suppliers, while the preference of the supplier with more initial capital is just the opposite. Finally, if the commission rate is endogenous, we demonstrate that the e‐platform will offer free loans but charge a relatively high commission fee. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider an optimal reinsurance contract under a mean-variance criterion in a Stackelberg game theoretical framework. The reinsurer is the leader of the game and decides on an optimal reinsurance premium to charge, while the insurer is the follower of the game and chooses an optimal per-loss reinsurance to purchase. The objective of the insurer is to maximize a given mean-variance criterion, while the reinsurer adopts the role of social planner balancing its own interests with those of the insurer. That is, we assume that the reinsurer determines the reinsurance premium by maximizing a weighted sum of the insurer's and reinsurer's mean-variance criteria. Under the general mean-variance premium principle, we derive the optimal reinsurance contract by solving the extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) systems. Moreover, we provide an intuitive way to set the weight of each party in the reinsurer's objective. Finally, we consider some special cases to illustrate our main results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Manufacturing industry is the material foundation of national economy, the traditional supply chain in a single value creation mode makes the manufacturing industry in the global value chain competition in the "low-end lock" predicament, to create a highly efficient, intelligent supply chain, is the manufacturing industry in the global competition to gain an advantage in the key. In the process of "Digital to Intelligent Reform", the matching mechanism and decision-making method of supply chain heterogeneity partner selection is the focus of manufacturing supply chain transformation to be solved urgently. This paper takes the manufacturers and suppliers of manufacturing secondary supply chain as the research object, takes service quality as the important influence factor of partner selection, and explores the supply chain partner matching evaluation model under the three modes of unilateral decision-making, bilateral decision-making, and optimization of bilateral decision-making. The study shows that the bilateral matching decision-making mechanism based on QoS can obtain a higher matching completion rate, while digital transformation helps to improve the efficiency and stability of supply chain partner selection. The study can provide a decision basis for heterogeneous partner selection in manufacturing supply chain, and then improve the overall performance of manufacturing supply chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mangrove restoration involves complex decision-making processes and can often lack adequate stakeholder engagement and empowerment to inform effective restoration outcomes. Decision science has the potential to overcome such challenges by facilitating structured approaches to make informed, participatory, and defensible decisions through the use of decision-support frameworks and tools. In this paper, we conduct a bibliometric and scoping review of peer-reviewed scientific literature to identify how decision science has been applied to advise mangrove restoration efforts and the extent to which social, economic, and ecological variables have been used to inform these studies. We find a steady increase in the number of mangrove restoration studies that employ decision science from 1990 to 2022, with an annual growth rate of 4.4%. We identified over 300 decision support tools used in mangrove restoration literature. Spatial data was the most documented tool to support mangrove studies. We also find that most papers focused on ecological variables (85.5%), while social (27.2%) and economic (15.1%) variables received less attention. Studies that used decision support frameworks were also sparse, where the most featured framework was Systematic Conservation Planning. The number of studies explicitly incorporating social and economic variables was limited, and there was also a scarcity of studies incorporating variables associated with governance. Regardless of the dominance of ecological variables, this review highlights a shift towards incorporating social dimensions into decision tools, emphasizing concepts like vulnerability to climate change, ecosystem services, and social benefits. Collaboration among countries, scientists, and practitioners is crucial to operationalise a socio-ecological framework within decision science. Enhancing the utility of scientific research for practitioners remains a critical goal in addressing the challenges faced by mangrove restoration projects globally. • The use of decision frameworks is infrequent in the mangrove restoration literature. • There is a recent shift from ecological-based decision tools to include social variables. • Mangrove restoration decision science overlooks governance and economic variables. • Scientists commonly support mangrove restoration decisions using spatial data. • Collaboration is crucial for decision science with a socioecological lens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper undertakes a revisit of the sunk cost fallacy, which refers to the tendency of people to persist investing resources into something, even if it is destined to have no good outcome. We emphasize that the utilities associated with different alternatives are not static for decision makers, which is exactly opposite to the traditional perspective. This paper argues that the utility of an option may change due to the choice of another option, suggesting that decisions considered irrational by the traditional analytical method, i.e., sunk cost fallacy, may be rational. We propose a novel analytical method for decision making with sunk cost when considering the utility change and validate the effectiveness of this method through mathematical modeling and computational experiments. This paper mathematically describes such decision-making problems, analyzing the impact of changes in the utilities across different alternatives on decision making with a real-world example. Furthermore, we develop a two-stage stochastic optimization model for such decision-making problems and employ the sample average approximation (SAA) method to solve them. The results from computational experiments indicate that some decisions traditionally considered irrational are, in fact, rational when the utility of an option changes as a result of choosing another option. This paper, therefore, highlights the significance of incorporating utility changes into the decision-making process and stands as a valuable addition to the literature, offering a refreshed and effective decision-making method for improved decision making.

Generic data envelopment analysis (DEA) models are based on deterministic input and output. However, input and output vectors are often interrupted by random factors, such as measurement errors and data noise, in real economic situations. This study proposes a new chance-constrained network DEA model based on the modified directional distance function (DDF) and enhanced Russell measure (ERM) model for assessing government management and culture-led urban regeneration. In addition to exploring the randomness of data, this study integrates the advantages of both ERM and DDF and considers the inefficiency level from a non-oriented viewpoint, the direction vector, and each input and output simultaneously. Each input and output of the two production stages can use non-radials to measure efficiency. Results show that the urban-rural gap has gradually widened since 2015. To validate the legitimacy of the model, this study utilizes the bootstrapping method to verify the results of the stochastic network DEA model and the conventional two-stage network DEA approach. This study also considers different alpha values as basis for comparison to confirm whether the results obtained differ by uncertainty level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Communities throughout the United States have come to rely upon agriculture as a pillar of their political integrity, economic security, and health and wellbeing. Climatic conditions in the western portion of the United States necessitate most lands be irrigated to be arable. As a result, a major portion of the economy of the United States, and by extension the world economy, is driven by the continued viability of western United States water law and policy. Furthermore, due to the strong interrelationship between anthropogenic consumptive uses, streamflows, and wetland/riparian area ecology, irrigation demand has a strong effect on stream morphology, quality, and biology for aquatic species. Western water management is a complex mosaic that is controlled by western state, federal, and tribal governments. Each of these systems of law have vulnerabilities to climate change, which is well understood to cause increasing water supply scarcity. This articledemonstrates the risks climate change poses to our management of irrigation water demand, as well as the interrelationship between water supply and demand. Due to the shared nature of the resource, this article addresses both tribal reserved rights and state-based rights using data from Indian reservations that either contain and/or are closely adjacent to non-tribal agricultural communities. Those data are used in a systems–dynamics model to integrate crop–water requirement estimation techniques with climate change estimates and a Monte Carlo analysis to assess how irrigation demand could change because of changing temperature, precipitation, incoming radiation, and wind speed caused by climate change. Results indicate that climate change will cause increases in irrigation requirements at most locations. Further, climate change is expected to significantly increase seasonal variability in many locations. The model provides a useful tool based upon publicly available data that will allow individual water users to make conservation decisions necessary to preserve their water rights as the climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pervasiveness of the Internet coupled with the advantages of cloud have almost made cloud services a necessity for organizations and individuals alike. However, it is a complex decision to choose a cloud vendor because of the large number of criteria and alternatives. Furthermore, the criteria in the case of cloud vendor selection are often interactive (synergic or opposing). To address this need, an approach is presented in this paper to select the most suitable cloud vendor while considering the nuances of human decision making, such as interactive criteria, and varying behavioural characteristics of the decision-makers (DMs). To this end, the recent Choquet logit models are deployed and generalized to add to their modelling abilities. Specifically, the following choice models are developed: generalized Choquet logit, generalized attitudinal Choquet logit, generalized Choquet mixed logit, and generalized attitudinal Choquet mixed logit models. The proposed generalized logit models have the Choquet logit, and the attitudinal Choquet logit models as their special cases. Thus the contributions of this work are two-fold: first an approach is developed to select suitable cloud vendor considering the human nuances and the actual practical aspects of the problem, and secondly a new class of powerful choice models is developed which may be useful in aiding any complex human decision-making, in which the cognitive power of the DM proves to be limited. The method is designed to consider the real nuances of the human decision making such as varying attitudes and varying degree of criteria interaction. The effectiveness of the proposed models in cloud vendor selection is tested through a real world case study from the Indian state of Tamil Nadu. In the case-study, there are 9 cloud vendors in the fray and 4 experts with different attitudes and different suggestions for the best cloud vendor. An approach is developed to solve this problem and a final ranking of the cloud vendors is determined considering experts suggestions. Apart from finding the best cloud vendor, the case study also helps in studying the role of an expert's attitudinal tendency on his preferences. Thus, concomitantly, the proposed approach also guides how to choose the best alternative based on the opinions of different experts with different attitudinal tendencies, without necessitating a forced consensus. • New probabilistic discrete choice models. • Representation of the complex decision making attitude. • Consideration of interaction among the criteria. • Variants of the proposed logit models. • Real Application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In decision-making analysis, the description on decision makers' risk attitude under uncertainty is a focus topic. This paper presents a novel decision analysis framework that considers uncertainty and risk using the cumulative prospect theory. The proposed approach describes uncertain preference information using interval-valued fuzzy sets, maintaining this representation without converting intervals into crisp numbers throughout the entire process. To quantify the distance between interval-valued fuzzy sets, we introduce a comprehensive interval-valued distance model that accounts for multiple situations determined based on the relative positions between intervals. Afterwards, some related theorems about the proposed interval-valued distance model are explored mathematically. Then, with the aid of different reference points and interval-valued distance model, the overall interval-valued prospect value of each alternative is investigated. Finally, an Enhanced Minimax Regret-based (EMR) approach is developed to compare and rank the obtained overall interval-valued prospect values. An illustrative example, accompanied by detailed discussions, is provided to demonstrate the flexibility and superiority of the proposed decision analysis framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Joint service, production, and pricing decisions are optimized. • The price is lower if the service capacity is sufficient than that if it is not. • Price and yield may not be affected by the unit production cost in a PSS. • The price may be lower if demand updates are perfect than that if they are not. • Impacts of the service and risk-averse attitude in a PSS are studied. In this paper, we investigate a service-oriented manufacturer that provides fashionable products with after-sales services to customers. Before the selling season, the manufacturer invests in service capacity in advance and then decides on the production quantity and selling price based on updated demand information. Interestingly, it is found that the manufacturer's production and pricing decisions will not be affected by the unit production cost when the market base exceeds a threshold. We investigate and compare the manufacturer's decisions in two cases: imperfect and perfect demand information updates. The selling price in the imperfect demand updates case is always set lower than that in the perfect demand updates case when the service capacity is sufficient but may not be under insufficient service capacity. The possibility that the prepared service capacity limits the production quantity may decrease with the unit production cost in the imperfect demand updates case. In contrast, this possibility is invariant with the unit production cost in the case of perfect demand updates. The effects of risk aversion are also investigated. It is found that under the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) criterion, the manufacturer with a higher risk-averse degree establishes a lower service capacity and sets a lower selling price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Add-on therapy with tiotropium was cost-effective when added to usual care in patients who remain uncontrolled despite treatment with medium or high-dose ICS/LABA in a middle-income country. Background: A significant proportion of asthma patients remain uncontrolled despite inhaled corticosteroids and long-acting beta-agonists. Some add-on therapies, such as tiotropium bromide, have been recommended for this subgroup of patients. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of tiotropium as an add-on therapy to inhaled corticosteroids and long-acting b2 agonists for patients with severe asthma. Methods: A probabilistic Markov model was created to estimate the cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of patients with severe asthma in Colombia. Total costs and QALYs of two interventions include standard therapy with inhaled corticosteroids and long-acting bronchodilators versus add-on therapy with tiotropium. Multiple sensitivity analyses were conducted. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated at a willingness-to-pay value of $5180. Results: The expected incremental cost per QALY (ICER) is estimated at US$–2637.59. There is a probability of 0.77 that tiotropium + ICS + LABA is more cost-effective than ICS + LABA at a threshold of US$5180 per QALY. The strategy with the highest expected net benefit is Tiotropium, with an expected net benefit of US$800. Our base-case results were robust to parameter variations in the deterministic sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: Add-on therapy with tiotropium was cost-effective when added to usual care in patients who remain uncontrolled despite treatment with medium or high-dose inhaled corticosteroids and long-acting bronchodilators. Our study provides evidence that should be used by decision-makers to improve clinical practice guidelines and should be replicated to validate their results in other middle-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Army installation commanders need timely weather information to make installation closure decisions before or during adverse weather events (e.g., hail, thunderstorms, snow, and floods). We worked with the military installation in Fort Carson, CO, and used their Weather Warning, Watch, and Advisory (WWA) criteria list to establish the foundation for our algorithm. We divided the Colorado Springs area into 2300 grids (2.5 square kilometers areas) and grouped the grids into ten microclimates, geographically and meteorologically unique regions, per pre-defined microclimate regions provided by the Fort Carson Air Force Staff Weather Officers (SWOs). Our algorithm classifies each weather event in the WWA list using the National Weather Service's and National Digital Forecast Database's data. Our algorithm assigns each event a criticality level: none, advisory, watch, or warning. The traffic network data highlight the importance of each road segment for travel to and from Fort Carson. The algorithm also uses traffic network data to assign weight to each grid, which enables the aggregation to the region and installation levels. We developed a weather dashboard in ArcGIS Pro to verify our algorithm and visualize the forecasted warnings for the grids and regions that are or may be affected by weather events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, with the rapid expansion of internet technology, the number of online food delivery services has grown. Despite the ease, a poor online food delivery platform (OFP) produces all kinds of problems for individuals. A comprehensive and reasonable evaluation of online food delivery is of great significance. Therefore, this study establishes an OFP evaluation model based on the probabilistic double hierarchy linguistic EDAS (PDHL-EDAS) method for multiple attribute group decision-making (MAGDM). Then the CRITIC model is introduced to derive the objective weight and the cumulative prospect theory is leaded to obtaining the cumulative weight of PDHLTS. In furthermore, the benefits and applicability of the PDHL-EDAS method are illustrated by solving practical MAGDM problems concerning the evaluation of OFPs. Lastly, the proposed method is verified by comparison with other MAGDM methods, in addition to discussing potential future research directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The method of pairwise comparisons is frequently applied for ranking purposes. This article aims to rank top women tennis players based on their win/lose ratios. Incomplete pairwise comparison matrices (PCMs) were constructed from data obtained from the WTA (Women's Tennis Association) homepage. The database contains head-to-head results from the period between 1973 and 2022 for 28 players who had the position No. 1 in the official rankings of WTA. The weight vector was calculated from the incomplete PCM with the logarithmic least squares method and the eigenvector method. The results are not surprising: Serena Williams, Steffi Graf, and Martina Navratilova stand in the first three positions, and Martina Hingis, Kim Clijsters, and Justine Henin follow them. We also tested the frequently used probability-based Bradley-Terry method and found high rank-correlation values. Using graph representations, the results gave us a deeper insight into the properties of incomplete PCMs. Special attention was given to the nontransitive triads. A data modification was necessary to remove ties in order to apply the commonly used tests. The results indicate that ordinally nontransitive triads are not significant in the data we analysed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In prioritization schemes, based on pairwise comparisons, such as the analytical hierarchy process, it is important to extract a cardinal ranking vector from a reciprocal matrix that is unlikely to be consistent. It is natural to choose such a vector only from efficient ones. Recently, a method to generate inductively all efficient vectors for any reciprocal matrix has been discovered. Here we focus on the study of efficient vectors for a reciprocal matrix that is a block perturbation of a consistent matrix in the sense that it is obtained from a consistent matrix by modifying entries only in a proper principal submatrix. We determine an explicit class of efficient vectors for such matrices. Based on this, we give a description of all the efficient vectors in the 3-by-3 block perturbed case. In addition, we give sufficient conditions for the right Perron eigenvector of such matrices to be efficient and provide examples in which efficiency does not occur. Also, we consider a certain type of constant block perturbed consistent matrices, for which we may construct a class of efficient vectors, and demonstrate the efficiency of the Perron eigenvector. Appropriate examples are provided throughout. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid economic growth has not only created more opportunities for the development of colleges and universities, but also presented many challenges. In this paper, by analyzing the construction of university budget implementation system, based on 5 stages, the recursive hierarchy of university performance budget is established by using hierarchical analysis method, and the hierarchy is solved by using recursive hierarchy matrix. A combination of balanced scorecard and key performance indicators is used. The performance budget evaluation index system for colleges and universities is constructed from the four levels of financial performance, business performance, budget performance and social performance. The equity realization method is used to study the financial fund performance of universities in the current period in the form of dividends, emptying behavior and selling shares. Based on the budget model, the impact of various factors on the shareholders’ dividend decision-making behavior is calculated according to the paradigm of “decision analysis framework - parameter change - decision change”. After the effective implementation of the performance project, the income of university A increased by 28.6% compared to the previous year, which laid a solid foundation for the development of the university.

This paper investigates the Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ) factors influencing occupant satisfaction in commercial buildings in Iran, contrasting the views of building experts (architects and engineers) with those of building occupants. Employing the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP), this study focuses on the four primary IEQ factors: thermal comfort, indoor air quality, visual comfort, and acoustic comfort. The study aims to bridge the gap between expert evaluations and occupant perceptions of IEQ factors in commercial buildings in Iran. By examining the disparities in prioritising IEQ factors between these two groups, the study sheds light on the complexities of IEQ assessment and highlights the importance of considering diverse perspectives in optimising indoor environments. Our methodology includes a survey conducted among 30 building experts (15 architects and 15 building engineers) and 102 occupants, employing FAHP to derive the relative importance weights of each IEQ factor. The results highlight significant disparities between architects, engineers, and occupants in prioritising these factors. Architects emphasise visual comfort (42%), while engineers and occupants view thermal comfort (53% and 41%) as the most crucial factor for occupant satisfaction. The study underscores the complexity of IEQ in commercial buildings and the diverse perspectives influencing its assessment. It contributes to the broader discourse on optimising IEQ, emphasising the need for a comprehensive approach that encompasses both technical expertise and occupant experience.