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This paper constructs the money demand function including the variable of electronic payments while adopting the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to investigate the relationship between electronic payments and money demand in China. The empirical results show that there is the cointegration among the variables in the constructed function with stability, and the e-payment variable is negatively correlated with the demand for money. According to the findings of this paper, in the long run, for every 1 percent increase in the e-payment variable, the demand for M1 will decrease by approximately 0.01 percent. In addition, the money demand function that contains the e-payment variable performs better than the one that does not in the forecast evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China, situated in the circum-Pacific seismic belt, experiences frequent seismic activity and faces diverse geological conditions, making structural stability of paramount importance, especially under seismic conditions. The majority of current earthquake generation methods do not consider the nonstationary nature of earthquakes. This paper introduces a spectral representation-random function model for generating nonstationary earthquakes, effectively simulating stochastic seismic ground motion. Furthermore, traditional slope stability analysis methods are deterministic and incapable of providing probabilistic assessments of slope instability. Therefore, this paper proposes a unified framework for static and dynamic structural reliability analysis based on the direct probability integration method, quantifying the impact of stochastic seismic ground motion on the dynamic reliability of slope stability. Finally, the proposed methods are applied to an excavation slope in Nanjing, using sliding displacement and safety factors as evaluation criteria to study the reliability of the slope under the influence of stochastic seismic events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Based on the micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) technology, acoustic emission sensors have gained popularity owing to their small size, consistency, affordability and easy integration. This study aims to provide direction for the advancement of MEMS acoustic emission sensors and predict their future potential for structural health detection of microprecision instruments. Design/methodology/approach: This paper summarizes the recent research progress of three MEMS acoustic emission sensors, compares their individual strengths and weaknesses, analyzes their research focus and predicts their development trend in the future. Findings: Piezoresistive, piezoelectric and capacitive MEMS acoustic emission sensors are the three main streams of MEMS acoustic emission sensors, which have their own advantages and disadvantages. The existing research has not been applied in practice, and MEMS acoustic emission sensor still needs further research in the aspects of wide frequency/high sensitivity, good robustness and integration with complementary metal oxide semiconductor. MEMS acoustic emission sensor has great development potential. Originality/value: In this paper, the existing research achievements of MEMS acoustic emission sensors are described systematically, and the further development direction of MEMS acoustic emission sensors in the future research field is pointed out. It provides an important reference value for the actual weak acoustic emission signal detection in narrow structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences is the property of Republic of Iraq Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MOHESR) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Discrepancies between several South-Eastern European (SEE) countries and Nordic countries are investigated in this paper using an econometric analysis. Its aim is to examine the relationship between CO2 emissions, GDP per capita, urban population (URB) and electricity production from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) - EPREN, excluding hydroelectric for the two groups of EU countries located in the North and S-E of Europe. The data covers a period from 1990 to 2022, providing a comprehensive view over three decades. The relationship between the four variables is determined by various causality and cointegration tests. We check the unit root tests and conclude that the analyzed time series are stationary at first difference. Further, we estimate two models: Fully Modified and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares and study causality and cointegration between variables. The results show that CO2 emissions are impacted by GDP, URB and EPREN for both regions. Testing causality, for SEE and Nordic countries, the bidirectional and causalities do exist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Power systems with a high proportion of inverter-based sources like photovoltaics require a substantial short-circuit current ratio to ensure strong voltage support capabilities. However, this also increases the system's short-circuit current capacity and levels, which may potentially affect the safe operation of system equipment and current-carrying conductors. To evaluate the operational risks, this paper proposes a quantitative calculation model for the critical integration proportion of grid-connected inverter-interfaced power sources based on short-circuit current over-limit probability. Firstly, according to the verification criterion about short-circuit current during the selection of the switching equipment and conductors in the power system, the short-circuit current over-limit probability evaluation system with five indices is established. Secondly, considering the impact of the increased grid integration proportion of inverter-based power sources on short-circuit currents, an evaluation process for operational risk probabilities is proposed. Based on this, the critical access proportion for inverter-based power source integration in the power grid can be calculated. Finally, the proposed model is used to assess the operational risk probability for a 220 kV system which includes a high proportion of inverter-based power sources in the Anhui area, China. Through the analysis of cumulative probability distribution curves, the critical grid integration proportion interval for the transition from normal to high proportion stages of inverter-based power sources is determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the long-run and short-run relationship between money supply and inflation in Pakistan, utilizing annual data spanning from 1981 to 2021. The key objective is to assess the impact of monetary policy, specifically money supply, on inflation dynamics in the country. To achieve this, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is employed, which is suitable for analyzing cointegration among variables with mixed integration orders. The results reveal both short and long-run cointegration between inflation, money supply, unemployment, and interest rates. Notably, unemployment demonstrates a negative correlation with inflation, while money supply and interest rates exhibit a positive relationship. These findings underscore the importance of dedicated policy measures to manage inflation effectively. The paper concludes by recommending the establishment of a policy implementation body and collaboration between the government and the central bank to ensure financial stability and control inflation through well-calibrated monetary and fiscal policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the social science literature when analyzing survey or time series data social scientists use spurious regression without due consideration of its assumptions and the data structure. This results in misinterpretation and misleading conclusions about the population. The paper reviews basic statistical and econometrics literature which led to the development of modern time series analysis in the presence of spurious regression. It concludes that the term 'Spurious' was well known before the Granger and Yule's work in time series context rather than cross-sectional data. The same reasons can produce spurious regression today and surely the solution doesn't exist in the cointegration analysis. Social scientists and applied econometrician investigators need more serious thinking and care to avoid spurious regression, if it is necessary even if data is stationary or cross-sectional. In this study, we extended the Ghouse experiment which is based on simulated data by employing real-world data to assess the effectiveness of the newly proposed Ghouse Equation in comparison to conventional approaches. The findings demonstrate that the Ghouse Equation produces the lowest probability of spurious regression as compared to its counterparts. Moreover, in forecasting performance, Ghouse Equation outperformed its counterparts. These results highlight the Ghouse Equation as a valuable and better tool for econometric analysis for nonstationary time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This methodology paper introduces a collective, team-based approach to constructing narratives in narrative research. The goal of the larger study was to explore the pedagogical belief and practices of engineering faculty members. The newly formed team of researchers ranged from novices to experts in the field of qualitative research, and this space created a unique opportunity to reflect on and explore the co-construction of Cody's narrative, the first narrative that the team constructed. The narrative was smoothed and constructed in a way that reduces some of the limitations inherent in narrative smoothing, through a deliberate and intentional negotiation process. We hope that this deeper exploration of our methods is helpful for other narrative researchers who are interested in team-based approaches to co-construction of narratives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates the long-term impact of Chinese RMB exchange rate movements on the trade balance between China and the Eastern African Belt and Road Initiative countries. The Pedroni cointegration analysis and the fully modified and dynamic OLS techniques are applied to the dataset from UNComtrade and China Statistical Yearbook 2019. Some specification novelties are the use of imports and exports as independent variables. By so doing, the paper proposes an alternative measure of the trade balance. We find that the RMB exchange rate movements are stable during the sample period and slightly affect the trade balance between China and the Eastern African BRI countries. Additionally, the study does not find evidence supporting the J-curve effect in China-East Africa trade balance. The empirical results suggest that the Eastern African BRI countries would gain much more trading collectively with China than individually. Therefore, the study strongly recommends that the East African Community accelerate its integration process and establish Export Quotas for trade outside the bloc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on interactional pragmatics and membership categorisation analysis, with a focus on (un)accomplished intersubjectivity, categories and social action, this paper explores some new aspects of multimodal joint fantasising in online interaction. The data for this study comes from the public Facebook event page regarding the 'ski field opening' in Brisbane, a sub-tropical city in Australia. The first part of the analysis examines how intersubjectivity is accomplished through joint fantasising co-constructed among the posters, serving entertainment purposes. Invoking their membership in the category 'fantasisers', this is done in two ways: (1) flat co-construction gradient; and (2) upgraded co-construction gradient. The second part focusses on the instances wherein intersubjectivity in relation to the fantasy world is unaccomplished. It is indexed through (1) metapragmatic labels of humour types; (2) treating the event as real; and (3) doubting the authenticity of the event and challenging the joint fantasising posts. As a result, additional categories emerge, thereby constructing category relations, namely, oppositional categories such as 'fantasisers'-'the gullible' and 'fantasisers'-'sceptics'. This in situ change, I argue, creates a shift in the pragmatic function of joint fantasising, moving from a category-implicative action (serving entertainment) to a category-relations-implicative action (serving jocular criticism). This paper adds to the research on joint fantasising, categorial work and social action, and broadly contributes to our understanding of how members of the society orient to contexts and categories in and through talk-in-interaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Mexican Journal of Economics & Finance / Revista Mexicana de Economia y Finanzas is the property of Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study investigated the effect of government expenditure on real growth in ECOWAS countries. This paper used panel cointegration techniques to examine the impact of government expenditure on economic growth for a sample of 15 ECOWAS countries between 1999 and 2021. The study uses the POLS, FMOLS, and DOLS techniques for estimating four models. The study supports the view that government expenditure positively affects real economic growth in ECOWAS countries. However, we also found that higher control of corruption improves the effectiveness and efficiency of government expenditure in promoting economic growth. Furthermore, a higher incidence of conflict minimizes the effectiveness and efficiency of government expenditure in promoting economic growth. The finding suggests that a well-managed government can contribute positively to economic growth. The finding that government expenditure positively affects real growth in ECOWAS countries suggests that a well-managed government can contribute positively to economic growth. This finding is helpful for policymakers in ECOWAS countries interested in improving their countries' economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the importance of financial development-international trade nexus and its implication for growth, studies have yet to look at the impact of new financial development indicators developed by the International Monetary Fund on international trade performance in Nigeria. This is one of the few attempts made to examine the elasticity of trade to financial development, given the inconclusive findings that permeate the literature. Therefore, this paper investigates the effect of financial development on aggregate trade performance in Nigeria using annual data from 1980 to 2021. The empirical framework is based on the ARDL approach to cointegration and error correction model. The findings revealed that (i) The ARDL bound test revealed the existence of a long-run equilibrium association between the variables; (ii) We find that a unit improvement in financial development induces a 1.1%-1.2% increase in trade performance in the short-run short term and a 9.7% in the long-run; (iii) The results show that a 1% increase in the exchange rate (depreciation) leads to a 0.01% improvement in trade performance in the short-term. The findings have important policy implications. The paper concludes that financial development contributes to trade performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines trends and dynamics of the Mining sector of Tanzania over a time span of 100 years. To do so, econometrics analysis is used to estimate cointegration model for trends within the span of time from 1966 till 2023. Qualitative analysis is also undertaken and empirical findings confirm five distinct regimes of mining sector performance since 1898 namely; the gold boom from 1898 till 1950, diamond boom from 1950 up to 1966, drastic fall from 1966 till 1997, recovery from 1997 up to 2010 and gold boom from 2010 to date. Tracing from 2000 when Vision 2025 was adopted, paper estimates show that the mining sector performance has been extraordinary from 1 percent in 1997 to 10 percent share of GDP by 2023 and export contribution has increased from US dollar 26 million in 1997 to 2.9 billion by 2023. Legal, regulatory and institutional frameworks at sectoral and macro level substantially influence the observed performance. The paper shows that the error correction term is correctly signed and statistically significant and, the coefficient of minerals export is statistically significant such that a 1 percent increase in mineral export will lead to a 0. 43 percentage increase of total export in the long run, with 77 percent speed of convergence to equilibrium. In terms of contribution to GDP, the results show that 1 percent increase in minerals production lead to 0.16 percent increase of GDP. Further analysis of the paper demonstrates high intensity of the correlation, integration and linkages effects between mining sector with other sectors particularly manufacturing. Thus, mining sector generally has potential to maximize gains from economic and social development whereas discovery of huge deposits of rare earth elements in Tanzania and availability of wide range of industrial mineral in nearly all regions of Tanzania have a potential of becoming a new backbone of Tanzania and enable manufacturing contribution over 30 percent of GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theoretical predictions of the effect of technological change on employment are ambiguous and depend on the extent to which new technology is embodied in new jobs. This paper separates positive and negative shocks and examines the extent to which technological shocks have an asymmetric effect on unemployment in nine European countries by using hidden cointegration analysis within a likelihood‐based panel framework. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that technological changes have had an unequal effect on unemployment because negative and positive shocks have different impacts on unemployment in terms of sign and size. It is interesting to note that women appear to be the group most negatively impacted by technological shocks. The estimates also show that the results are inconsistent because technological advancement has resulted in 'creative destruction' in four countries while 'creative creation' has occurred in five of them. It is worth mentioning that the methodological framework utilized in this paper can be a useful tool for predicting the behaviour of technological shocks. Policy implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The profound changes brought about by informatization and digitalization have given rise to the user-centered innovation concept, and value co-creation by enterprises has become an inevitable trend. It has become a pressing issue for scholars to analyze the mechanism of consumer participation in the value co-creation of innovative enterprises. In this paper, by establishing an evolutionary game model between consumers and innovative enterprises, we analyze in depth the mechanism of consumer participation in the value co-creation of innovative enterprises. The results show that the initial cooperation probability between consumers and innovative enterprises directly affects their strategic choices; the establishment of reward mechanisms makes consumers more inclined to choose active participation in value co-creation strategies; as the probability of non-cooperation between the two parties being reported increases, the probability of consumers and innovative enterprises choosing cooperation also increases. Studying the mechanism of consumer participation in the value co-creation of innovative enterprises has essential theoretical and practical significance for enterprises to achieve value creation, enhance competitiveness, and promote innovation. This study not only enriches and develops relevant theories but also provides guidance and support for the practice of enterprises, promoting sustainable development and successful co-creation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The notion that investors shift to gold during economic market crises remains unverified for many cryptocurrency markets. This paper investigates the connectedness between the 10 most traded cryptocurrencies and gold as well as crude oil markets pre-COVID-19 and during COVID-19. Through the application of various statistical techniques, including cointegration tests, vector autoregressive models, vector error correction models, autoregressive distributed lag models, and Granger causality analyses, we explore the relationship between these markets and assess the safe-haven properties of gold and crude oil for cryptocurrencies. Our findings reveal that during the COVID-19 pandemic, gold is a strong safe-haven for Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Monero while demonstrating a weaker safe-haven potential for Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Chainlink, and Cardano. In contrast, gold only exhibits a strong safe-haven characteristic before the pandemic for Litecoin and Monero. Additionally, Brent crude oil emerges as a strong safe-haven for Bitcoin during COVID-19, while West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oils demonstrate weaker safe-haven properties for Ether, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, and Monero. Furthermore, the Granger causality analysis indicates that before the COVID-19 pandemic, the causal relationship predominantly flowed from gold and crude oil toward the cryptocurrency markets; however, during the COVID-19 period, the direction of causality shifted, with cryptocurrencies exerting influence on the gold and crude oil markets. These findings provide subtle implications for policymakers, hedge fund managers, and individual or institutional cryptocurrency investors. Our results highlight the need to adapt risk exposure strategies during financial turmoil, such as the crisis precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) matters for environmental deregulations in Southern European countries over the period of 1990–2018 while controlling economic growth, globalization, and energy consumption. The present study uses the second generation panel based techniques, namely cross-sectional dependency test, cross-sectional unit-root test, Westerlund cointegration test, augmented mean group and common correlated effects mean group estimators, and Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test to measure the effect of CO2 intensity of GDP, economic growth, globalization, and energy consumption on environmental degradation. The empirical finding of the present study reveals that the CO2 intensity of GDP is an important factor in determining environmental degradation in South European countries, as the outcomes show that a 1% boost in CO2 intensity of GDP is causing a 1.7728% increase in CO2 emissions. Moreover, a 1% increase in economic growth caused a 0.2568% boost in CO2 emissions. The result is crucial for policy decision-making and can perhaps be applied to take decisive policy actions to mitigate environmental issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tajikistan holds the eighth position globally in terms of hydropower potential, estimated at 527 terawatt-hours (TWh), with a technically exploitable capacity of 317 TWh. Only 4–6 percent of this immense potential is currently utilized. In this paper, employing a combination of the Johansen cointegration test, vector autoregression, and the Granger-causality test on annual data from 1993 to 2021, we examine the causality relationship between electricity production and key macroeconomic variables, including gross domestic product (GDP), GDP per capita, exports, imports, final consumption, capital investment, and employment, in Tajikistan. The empirical findings reveal a positive unidirectional causality from electricity production to exports and imports. A positive bidirectional or feedback causality is found between electricity production and variables such as GDP, GDP per capita, final consumption, and employment. No causality relationship between electricity production and variables such as trade openness and capital investment is observed. The exploration of complex causal relationships between electricity production and key macroeconomic variables in Tajikistan, as revealed in this study, offers a modest yet meaningful addition to academic discourse. It presents insights that may inform policymakers and stakeholders, albeit with a recognition of the limitations inherent in the findings. These insights could potentially guide the formulation of sustainable development strategies and shed light on the underutilized potential of the country's hydropower resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present paper, a Johansen’s cointegration analysis is carried out considering the volume of exports from Azerbaijan to Ukraine, GDP per capita of Ukraine, the openness of the economy of Ukraine and the economically active population of Azerbaijan for the period 1996-2022, also a comparative analysis of the above indicators is carried out, the characteristics of joint short-term and long-term movements are determined. In the course of research the author used the methodology of modified gravitational modeling, the econometric methodology of time series analysis, including tests for checking stationarity, the extended Dickey-Fuller test, the Granger test for the detection of causality, determining the cointegration dependence using the Johansen’s test, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) has been built. First, a basic modified model of gravity has been built, and the statistical adequacy of this model has been checked. A comparative analysis of two regression models was carried out after the inclusion of the trend component in one of them. The dynamic structure of regression residuals was studied and the test for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation was carried out. It is shown that the most suitable specification for cointegration is the quadratic trend in the initial levels with a linear trend in cointegration relationships, which has led to the emergence of two cointegration vectors. As a result of the completed analysis, two cointegration relationships are obtained. The results of the impulse response functions, decomposition of dispersions and the VECM model in the form of combinations of two cointegrating vectors with the expected signs of the adjustment integers showed that the economic indicators used in the analysis for the specified period maintain cointegration in the long term with the not stable equilibrium joint movements of the factors under study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the examination of the long-run relationship between money supply and selected national and global stock indices. Detailed knowledge of this relationship can be used by analysts, investors and monetary policy makers. Analysis of the relationship was performed using a 2-stage Engle-Granger cointegration. First, the stationarity of the time series was tested, then both the long-term OLS model and the short-term EC model were estimated. Time series were always tested on the longest period for which data were available. The long-term dependence of stock indices on the respective M2 was confirmed for the BOVESPA, FTSE100, S&P/BMV IPC, S&P BSE500, TSX and The 5000 Wilshire Small Cap Price Return indices. In contrast, the dependence between world money supply indicator GlobalM2, the stock index FTSEALL World, and the S&P500 index was not demonstrated. Additionally, no dependence was identified between the respective M2 and the DAX, PX, Nikkei225, KOSPI, SMI, SPCITIC300, Eurostoxx50, Willshire5000PR and ATX indices. Backward dependence of M2 on the stock index was found only for the Chinese SPCITIC300 index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates the relationship between exchange rates and economic growth in Nigeria during the period from 1981 to 2019. The research conducted an analysis of Nigerian data using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique and identified that Exchange Rates have a favourable impact on Economic Growth. This paper affirmed the regression's validity with stationary residuals and found no long-term equilibrium using Bound Cointegration. The ARDL modelling revealed short-term connections between exchange rates and economic growth. Positive correlations were observed between exchange rates, GDP per capita growth, interest rates, and total exports, while negative relationships were noted with inflation and total imports, highlighting the importance of exchange rate stability in sustaining economic growth. This research provides a novel viewpoint on the connection between exchange rates and economic growth in Nigeria during the period from 1981 to 2019. It uncovers that more than 98% of the fluctuations in exchange rates can be accounted for by the included variables. The noteworthy discovery of the absence of a long-term equilibrium relationship within the specified time frame sets this study apart. Furthermore, it underscores the crucial role of exchange rate stability in promoting enduring economic growth, emphasising the necessity for well-designed policies that consider the intricate economic landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between the gross value added (GVA) of Greece's agricultural sector and the GVAs of the other sectors. The research considers both the relationship between value levels and the cycles of GVAs. Dynamic analysis using ARDL modeling shows that there is no cointegration between agricultural GVA and the other GVAs. However, there is an estimated cointegrating relationship between business cycles of agriculture and those of the rest of the economic sectors, with the cycles of services being the significant variable. Moreover, econometric analysis using NARDL modeling shows that there is a cointegrating relationship between the levels of GVAs as well, when asymmetricity—with respect to GVA changes of the services sector—is introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Despite the vulnerability of rapidly developing and emerging market economies, researchers have paid less attention to the determination of the size of money laundering (ML) in these economies, including the United Arab Emirates (the UAE). Therefore, this paper aims to estimate the magnitude of ML in the UAE between 1975 and 2020 based on the currency demand approach (CDA). Design/methodology/approach: The study uses the Gregory–Hansen cointegration technique alongside the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing procedure to estimate the CDA model. Findings: The results illustrate that an amount equivalent to about 19.034% of the GDP is laundered in the UAE between 1975 and 2020, on average, with the value lying between 15.129% and 23.121%. In addition, the results demonstrate the importance of the real estate market, gold trade, remittance channels and the size of the underground economy in facilitating the laundering of illicit funds in the country. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, the study is the pioneering attempt at estimating the amount of illicit funds laundered in the UAE. Besides, the adoption of a novel, yet robust, approach based on the modification of the CDA technique also sets the study apart as it ensures a correct, clear, unambiguous and indisputable estimate of the magnitude of ML is obtained. In addition, it is expected that the outcome of the study will expand the frontiers of knowledge among policy makers and relevant agencies and ensure the adoption of the most efficient and effective measures to curb the ML menace in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper carried out an empirical study on Return on Assets (ROA), total assets turnover, financial leverage, working capital, and debt-to-equity ratio. This study investigated commercial banks operating in Turkey. A secondary data collection method is used for the data collected from fifteen commercial banks. These banks' financial reports were examined from 2011 to 2022. A line graph is presented for each balance that tells us the volatility ratio in the variables, the unit root test applied to resolve the unit root problem, and the cointegration test used for long-term relationships among variables. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test was performed to measure the short-run and long-run effects. Financial leverage, debt-to-equity ratio, and working capital have short- and long-run effects on ROA. Total asset turnover has only long-run effects on ROA in the Turkish banking industry. This study will be beneficial for investment managers, financial specialists, treasurers, and controllers of the banking industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the existence and directions of the causal relationships between the level of tax revenue and a set of determinants, using data from 26 European countries for the period 2015–2018. In particular, by applying the panel cointegration method and estimating panel-based Error Correction Models, the long-run and causal relationships between the variables, are being explored. The results of the analysis confirm the existence of cointegration relationships (long-run relationships) and suggest a significant degree of interdependence. In particular, the investigation showed that the level of GDP per capita and public debt, the assessment of the level of control of corruption, the government effectiveness index, the degree of the efficiency of tax administration and the level of tax rates (individuals and corporate) significantly affect the level of tax revenue collection. The analysis also confirms the existence of macroeconomic interdependence (interconnection) between the European countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the knowledge network structure of foreign research literature by applying the qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) method to the field of information science and library science (ISLS) from the perspective of the cocitation of social network actors such as authors, institutions, countries, and literature, and it further reveals the future application trends of this method. [Method/process] Based on 86 journals in the ISLS field that were downloaded from the Web of Science using the QCA method, the social network analysis (SNA) method and the visual analysis tool Gephi are used to analyse the author cooperation network, the research institution cooperation network, the national cooperation network, the cocitation network, the cutting-edge trends, etc., of journal papers. The analysis shows that the QCA method covers a wide range within the field of ISLS, but the research topics involved in this field are not concentrated, and the author cooperation network has scale-free characteristics. The application of the QCA method is still dominant in European and American countries, and China, the USA, and Italy all play key roles in the national cooperation network. Finally, the institutional cooperation network has certain small group attributes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Charcoal is a dominant energy source in urban areas of Uganda, and increases in retail prices in the past have led to social unrest. This paper assesses the relationship between charcoal and fuel prices to determine whether fuel prices influence the retail price of charcoal. We specify a transportation cost model for charcoal supply and derive the reduced-form equilibrium price function. We estimate an error-correction model for the equilibrium price with monthly data from July 2010 to January 2021 to determine whether there are long-term and/or short-term relationships between the retail and supply prices of charcoal and the prices of diesel and other fuel types. As the price data are integrated of orders zero and one, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test is used. The results show that there is a long-term relationship (cointegration) between the retail price of charcoal and the supply price of charcoal and the price of kerosene, which is a substitute energy source for the end users. The prices of firewood and diesel are not statistically significant in the model. The long-term equation includes a positive trend, indicating that the retail price of charcoal is increasing more over time than implied by the supply price of charcoal and the price of kerosene. The increasing demand from a growing urban population and the reduced supply from deforestation are trends that will increase the equilibrium price of charcoal, as observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper augments the sparse literature on the inflationary impact of foreign debt in Brazil while addressing methodological caveats in previous studies. We depart from the linearity assumption and employ two nonlinear techniques: the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and a Markov Switching Regression (MSR) to investigate the connection between foreign debt and inflation within a multivariate framework. The analyses consider the presence of structural breaks via assessing variable stationarity using the Zivot and Andrew unit root test and incorporating a residual-based cointegration test proposed by Gregory and Hansen. Additionally, we apply a multiple structural breakpoints test by Bai and Perron to determine the presence of structural breaks in the impact of foreign debt on inflation. Our findings robustly indicate that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive effect, while the nominal effective exchange rate has a negative effect on inflation in both the short and long run. The NARDL model reveals that only positive changes in foreign debt have a statistically significant negative effect on inflation in the short run, whereas both positive and negative foreign debt changes significantly affect inflation in the long run. The results from the MSR model are generally consistent with those of the NARDL model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel estimator for a nonstandard restriction to both symmetry and low rank in the context of high-dimensional cointegrated processes. Furthermore, we discuss rank estimation for high-dimensional cointegrated processes by restricted bootstrapping of the Gaussian innovations. We demonstrate that the classical rank test for cointegrated systems is prone to underestimating the true rank and demonstrate this effect in a 100-dimensional system. We also discuss the implications of this underestimation for such high-dimensional systems in general. Also, we define a linearized Kuramoto system and present a simulation study, where we infer the cointegration rank of the unrestricted p\times p system and successively the underlying clustered network structure based on a graphical approach and a symmetrized low rank estimator of the couplings derived from a reparametrization of the likelihood under this unusual restriction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Desarrollo y Sociedad is the property of Universidad de los Andes and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The objective of this research paper is to apply a mathematical model to estimate and predict the economic growth of the Caspian countries in the period from 1995 to 2022. We use multiple regression by applying the OLS method to estimate the impact of global oil price, energy resource production per capita, trade, and renewable energy on GDP per capita. The mathematical approach uses fixed and random effects models to assess the overall impact of the independent variables on economic growth in this region and over the period analysed. This study also aims to investigate whether the explanatory variables are cointegrated in the long run; as such, we carry out several mathematical cointegration tests, namely the Pedroni and Johansen tests. The mathematical analysis is completed by the estimation of short- and long-run parameters using the stochastic VAR/VEC models, the impulse response function, and the causality test to assess economic growth in this region. This study's main finding is that GDP per capita is increasingly influenced by its previous values, which is confirmed by considering lag 1 and lag 2. The results of the Granger causality tests identify several bidirectional relationships between GDP per capita and oil and gas production. These relationships are clearly positive evidence of the growth trend and progress of economic activity in the Caspian region. The practical implications of the study aim to promote and support the use of renewable energy sources. In this sense, policymakers in the Caspian countries should create favourable conditions for the transition to a green economy. An important aspect is the efforts of the government authorities to make their policies more environmentally friendly, as decarbonisation is a good practice in the current context of sustainability and related choices. As the Caspian countries are heavily dependent on conventional energy production, it is essential for them to increase their export earnings from energy resources via diversifying and strengthening new energy opportunities and partnerships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically investigates the Gibson Paradox and the Fisher Effect for the UK during different metallic and non‐metallic regimes. The paper applies long‐span monthly data on the long‐term interest rate and the price index from 1790 to 1931. The ARDL cointegration is employed to study the long‐term relationship. Significant evidence is provided for the paradox during the uninterrupted gold standard era of the UK (1821–1914). We also find evidence of the paradox during the short‐term gold exchange standard era (1925–1931). Further results also confirm the Fisher Effect during the 1821–1914 period, providing some backing to its ability to explain the paradox. This is further asserted by the short‐run mutual influence between the rate of interest and the inflation rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Cointegration has shown useful for modeling non‐stationary data with long‐run equilibrium relationships among variables, with applications in many fields such as econometrics, climate research and biology. However, the analyses of vector autoregressive models are becoming more difficult as data sets of higher dimensions are becoming available, in particular because the number of parameters is quadratic in the number of variables. This leads to lack of statistical robustness, and regularisation methods are paramount for obtaining valid estimates. In the last decade, many papers have appeared suggesting different penalisation approaches to the inference problem. Here, we make a comprehensive review of different penalisation methods adapted to the specific structure of vector cointegrated models suggested in the literature, with relevant references to software packages. The methods are evaluated and compared according to a range of error measures in a simulation study, considering combinations of low and high dimension of the system and small and large sample sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on women's labor force participation in 14 Arab countries from 1991 to 2021. Theoretically, FDI supports gender equality by creating more jobs for women, providing them with better working conditions, and increasing their wages relative to those provided by local firms. It also does this via increasing the demand for labor and technological spillovers. Unlike previous studies, we utilize likelihood-based panel cointegration and multivariate analysis to examine cointegration between the variables, considering cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. The results demonstrate that FDI inflows boost women's participation in the labor force in nearly half of the sample countries. Policywise, the findings imply that FDI inflows can assist central governments in achieving better gender development and equality through either higher female labor demand or sustainable labor practices and gender-equal norms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]