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Extreme climate events such as frost and drought have great influence on wheat growth and yield. Understanding the effects of frost, drought and compound frost-dry events on wheat growth and yield is of great significance for ensuring national food security. In this study, wheat yield prediction model (SCYMvp) was developed by combining crop growth model (CGM), satellite images and meteorological variables. Wheat yield maps in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) during 2001-2020 were generated using SCYMvp model. Meanwhile, accumulative frost days (AFD), accumulative dry days (ADD) and accumulative frost-dry days (AFDD) in different growth periods of wheat were calculated, and the effects of frost and drought on wheat yield were quantified by the first difference method and linear mixed model. The results showed that wheat yield increased significantly, while the rising trend was obvious at more than half of the regions. Extreme climate events (ECEs) showed a relatively stable change trend, although the change trend was significant only in a few areas. Compared with frost and drought in the early growth period, ECEs in the middle growth period (spring ECEs) had more negative effects on wheat growth and yield. Wheat yield was negatively correlated with spring ECEs, and yield loss was between 4.6 and 49.8 kg/ha for each 1 d increase of spring ECEs. The effects of spring ECEs on wheat yield were ranked as AFDD > AFD > ADD. The negative effect of ADD on wheat yield in the late growth period was higher than that in the other periods. The negative effects of spring ECEs on yield in southern regions were higher than those in northern regions. Overall, due to the adverse effects of frost and drought on wheat yield in the middle and late growth periods, the mean annual yield loss was 6.4 %, among which spring AFD caused the greatest loss to wheat yield (3.1 %). The results have important guiding significance for formulating climate adaptation management strategies., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Climate change and water shortage have brought great challenges to agricultural production in the North China Plain, and it's crucial to find the suitable method to address these challenges. Climate model projections were used to drive the Agro-Hydrological & chemical and Crop systems simulator (AHC) that considering the impact of irrigation on field microclimate. Yield, evapotranspiration (ET), water productivity (WP), and the impact on groundwater level of 6 wheat varieties under 6 sprinkler irrigation scheduling (IS1: no irrigation; IS6: full irrigation without water deficit; IS2–5: deficit irrigation with 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, and 0.8 times water of IS6 after wheat greening) were estimated in Xingtai under current and two shared social economic paths scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5). The optimal combination of irrigation and variety (OC) was selected by Topsis method. The results indicated that AHC had a high accuracy in simulating the growth of six varieties (R2>0.80, NRMSE<20 %) after parameter optimization. The temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation in 2021–2100 increased by 0.1–2.8 °C, 0.7–1.7 MJ m−2 d−1, and 5.2–28.8 mm under SSP2–4.5 and 0.2–4.8 °C, 0.9–1.2 MJ m−2 d−1, and 4.7–73.1 mm under SSP5–8.5 than current climate. As the irrigation amount increased, the simulated yield and ET increased, while WP first increased and then decreased. Due to climate change, irrigation failed to improve the wheat potential yield after 2080 under SSP2–4.5 and 2060 under SSP5–8.5. The OC implied that "Shimai26" and IS5 and IS4 in the future were the best strategy. It saved water by 13–23 % with similar yield than full irrigation. Moreover, the inhibitory effect of OC on annual groundwater level drawdown was stronger than other irrigation by 0.04–0.24 m. These findings were beneficial for mitigating climate impacts on grain yields in water scarce areas. ● Shimai26 was the best wheat variety under climate change. ● 0.8 and 0.6 times full irrigation after wheat regreening were the best in future. ● Irrigation couldn't increase wheat potential yield at the end of 21st century. ● Best irrigation saved 13–23 % water with similar yield than full irrigation. ● Best irrigation had the greatest inhibitory effect on groundwater level decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fusarium asiaticum is a predominant fungal pathogen causing Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) in wheat and barley in China and is associated with approximately £201 million in annual losses due to grains contaminated with mycotoxins. F. asiaticum produces deoxynivalenol and zearalenone whose maximum limits in cereals and cereals-derived products have been established in different countries including the EU. Few studies are available on the ecophysiological behaviour of this fungal pathogen, but nothing is known about the impact of projected climate change scenarios on its growth and mycotoxin production. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the interacting effect of i) current and increased temperature (25 vs 30 °C), ii) drought stress variation (0.98 vs 0.95 water activity; a w) and iii) existing and predicted CO 2 concentrations (400 vs 1000 ppm) on fungal growth and mycotoxin production (type B trichothecenes and zearalenone) by three F. asiaticum strains (CH024b, 82, 0982) on a wheat-based matrix after 10 days of incubation. The results showed that, when exposed to increased CO 2 concentration (1000 ppm) there was a significant reduction of fungal growth compared to current concentration (400 ppm) both at 25 and 30 °C, especially at 0.95 a w. The multi-mycotoxin analysis performed by LC-MS/MS qTRAP showed a significant increase of deoxynivalenol and 15-acetyldeoxynivalenol production when the CH024b strain was exposed to elevated CO 2 compared to current CO 2 levels. Zearalenone production by the strain 0982 was significantly stimulated by mild water stress (0.95 a w) and increased CO 2 concentration (1000 ppm) regardless of the temperature. Such results highlight that intraspecies variability exist among F. asiaticum strains with some mycotoxins likely to exceed current EU legislative limits under prospected climate change conditions. • Ecophysiological behaviour of F. asiaticum grown on a wheat-based matrix • Fungal growth decreased at higher CO 2 concentrations especially at 0.95 a w • Intraspecies variability in terms of mycotoxins production • Higher DON and 15-ADON production at 1000 ppm by CH024b strain • Increased ZEN concentration at 0.95 a w × 1000 ppm by 0982 strain [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Against the background of rising international disputes, numerous countries have placed great importance on ensuring self-sufficiency of crop production. Weather, as a notably variable factor than others, has a considerable influence on agricultural productivity, production variability and, in turn, on food security. Our primary objectives were to: (1) evaluate the relative importance of climate, soil, and field management factors on wheat production across major wheat-producing regions in China, (2) explore the direct and indirect ways of the effect of climate on wheat production at different phenological stages, and (3) forecast future trends in wheat production levels and stability based on historical insights. Initially, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations in production and phenology across six subregions using linear regression. This analysis was based on data from 124 agro-meteorological stations, spanning the period from 1999 to 2013. Subsequently, we used the Random Forest algorithm to discern the relative importance of climate, soil, and field management on wheat production. Moreover, we utilized a structural equation model to elucidate the direct and indirect pathways through which climatic factors affected production during different phenological stages, incorporating the first difference method. Finally, with a Support Vector Machine algorithm, the production level and stability under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were predicted using 33 Global Climate Models. Over the 1999–2013 period, among 124 wheat stations, 33 stations showed a significant (P < 0.05) increase in wheat production, while 53 exhibited an insignificant (P > 0.05) increase. Conversely, 4 stations exhibited a significant (P < 0.05) decrease, and 34 showed an insignificant (P > 0.05) decrease in wheat production. Climate, soil, and field management all played significant roles in wheat production in each of the six subregions, with relative importance ranging from 19.0% to 44.2%, 30.4% to 35.9%, and 25.4% to 45.1%, respectively. Climate factors, predominantly temperature-related, influenced wheat production by altering key growth period lengths, while other factors directly impacted production. Finally, our findings suggested that the wheat production level in China is expected to increase in the future, while its production stability could decrease. These findings hold the potential to guide policymakers in different regions towards ensuring food security and enhancing agricultural system resilience in the context of climate change. [Display omitted] • The relative importance of climate, soil, and field management were analyzed. • Direct and indirect impact pathways for climate-affected production were explained. • Wheat production level will increase in the future, while stability may decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]