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The article presents several abstracts of research papers about business organization, managerial economics and marketing. The first paper "Determining the Optimum Replacement Pattern," by A.H. Chisholm, attempts to clarify some confusion that has been apparent in the literature of agricultural economies in recent years with respect to providing a criterion for determining the optimum replacement pattern for long-lived assets. The second paper "Some Estimates of the Cost of Capital to the Electric Utility Industry, 1954-57, provides estimates of the cost of capital or cut-off rate appropriate for optimal investment decisions for a sample of large electric utilities in the years 1954, 1956, and 1957. In the third paper "An Error Parameter for the Reilly-Converse Law of Retail Gravitation," by F.H. Sweet, the converse form of the law is applied to calculate the attractive force exerted by a homogeneously populated community of radius on a one-member community situation at a distance from center.

In a recent article Baruch Lev analyzed 29 peak-demand forecasts (consisting of 1917 monthly forecasts) made by Commonwealth Edison Company between 1955 and 1966. The conclusions made by Lev from analysis of these actual forecasts bear a close resemblance to the kinds of conclusions that we derived from an application of time series analysis to historical data to produce forecasts. It is the purpose of this paper to show how the conclusions which Lev made about forecast errors would also be true of the errors resulting from forecasts derived solely from analysis of historical data. Although in no way definitive, such a demonstration of consistency between actual forecasts made by businessmen and statistical forecasts made only from historical data yields further evidence of the practical applicability of time series analysis to forecasting problems in real life. In particular Lev concluded that the major factor affecting the distribution of forecast errors was the month of the forecast and that the "… interval between prediction and realization has only a slight effect on the prediction errors." Mr. Lev's analysis of these observations showed that the expected value of forecast errors was about one quarter of one percent and independent of the time interval of the forecast. In addition he pointed out that the variance of the log forecast errors increased slightly with the prediction interval but was affected more directly by the month which was forecasted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the two factors affecting electrical rates. The present paper deals mainly with two fundamental questions: (1) the bearing of the time of consumption upon the rate, and (2) the proper influence of quantity taken upon the rate. While the importance of the load factor constitutes the great peculiarity of the electrical rate situation, quantity discounts constitute the most troublesome practical problem. Quantity taken is perhaps more important than load characteristics as the reason for class rates, even where the latter are ostensibly based on load-factor grounds.

The possible use of fissionable substances as a new and important source of energy gives rise to a number of economic questions. This paper deals in a very general way with two sets of questions—those related to the comparative costs of producing energy from atomic fuels and other sources, and those related to the economic consequences which might follow the introduction and use of atomic fuels. The discussion is built around examples which illustrate each of the questions considered. Energy is developed in the atomic pile in the form of heat. The heat produced might possibly be consumed directly in a variety of industrial and nonindustrial uses requiring either low- or high-temperature heat. In the light of what is known of current research on peacetime applications of atomic power, it is probable that the earliest important use of the heat produced in the pile will be in the generation of electricity. It is for this reason that such estimates as have been made of the cost of energy from atomic sources have been for the generation of electric power. This paper, similarly, is limited to a discussion of atomic energy as a source of electric power.

Nearly 2,000,000 of our farms now use central station electric power. Not much of this farm electrification very recent, but the social aspects and implications of this new factor in rural life have received very little objective investigation. In this paper a variety of questions believed to be worthy of and suited to investigation are raised: Does electrification increase taint income and farm value? What are its effects upon tenant mobility and cityward migration of youth? How does the farmer use his electricity? Does he thereby have more leisure; and if so, how is his leisure used? Why do a considerable number of farmers along the lines not use electricity, and what are the social implications of such nonuse in juxtaposition with neighboring Does this new development, particularly through cooperatives, have significant implications as to the size, organization, and governmental consciousness of the community? Does rural electrification contribute to rural-urban understandings? To what extent is rural electrification a directional force in the adjustment of agriculture in our problem areas? Some general aspects of methodology are briefly dealt with [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a comment on a previous article New England Power Economics, by Roy G. Poulsen that appeared in the August 1965 issue of the journal Land Economics. According to the author, this article describes prospective improvements in electricity supply and costs in New England and looks forward to the time, not too far in the future, when atomic energy for utility generating plants will be widely used in the Northeast, and New England at long last will have a power source no more costly to the region than to any other part of the nation and its competitive power cost disadvantage will come to an end. The Poulsen paper learns heavily, as of course it must, on statements by utilities and their executives about future plans for larger, more efficient conventional and nuclear regeneration. According to the author, the reason for the present high level of electric rates in New England lies not solely in fuel cost. The fixed costs of operation and maintenance, depreciation, taxes and rate of return as well as the magnitude of the unit investment per customer and per kilowatt must be examined in depth before one can be sure of the reasons for the present situation.

Comments on several articles about energy resources and research in the U.S. Correlation between oil prices and electric security and supply; Discussion of the economic significance of the inversion of electric rate schedule; Benefits from energy research and development.

Comments on articles about the demand for energy in the U.S. Relationship between consumption of electricity, population and real income per capita; Estimation of electricity demand; Effect of alternative fuels on electricity demand; Price elasticity of demand functions.

More than a decade ago Leland Olds pinpointed the problem of private power companies in the cleverly phrased statement, "Rates are high because costs are high because consumption is low because rates are high." Presumably he meant that rates and costs of private power are high relative to those for public power, leading to lower consumption per potential consuming unit in areas serviced by private power. It is the purpose of this paper to elaborate on those aspects of cost and demand which support and enlarge the argument while leading to the same general conclusion. Private power companies have also been disadvantaged relative to public power in obtaining investment funds. First, they have needed to raise equity capital, which requires a greater return than does debt. Public power had no such problem. Government-financed river basin projects had many objectives only one of which was generation of electric power, and general taxpayers bore a large share of construction costs on that account.

The article presents a response to the commentary about the economic theory on pricing and peak load problem in electricity supply. According to the author, the commentary which showed that a two-rate time-of-day tariff can produce a better use of resources than a tariff based upon a single daily rate did not consider a two-rate system because the introduction of further rates yields rapidly diminishing returns while consumer costs increase and for the separation of energy and capacity costs wherein two rates appeared sufficient.

The article presents a critique of University of Wisconsin professor Peter O. Steiner's economic theory on efficient pricing and peak load problems in electricity supply. The author strongly disagreed on Steiner's solutions which involved discriminatory prices and contended an idea of when price differences are discriminatory and when they are not. In addition, the author emphasized that Steiner's analysis is limited to the long-run solution and separated the short-run and long-run aspects of the problem to provide a more general solution. To provide an interpretation of Steiner's analysis, a short-run and long-run solutions model was presented by the author.

The electric utility industry has experienced rapid growth in the United States since electricity was first introduced as an energy source. The net production of electricity increased at an average rate of 7-2 per cent per year over the period from 1912 to 1964 while over the same period, real GNP increased at roughly 31 per cent per year. The demand by all users of electricity has continued to grow over the last several years and has placed the electric utility industry in a precarious position. Utilities are experiencing increasing pressure on their generating and transmission facilities. Voltage curtailments and reductions attest to the difficulty in meeting current demand levels. Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, St. Louis, and New York are among the important areas of the country that have experienced blackouts or power rationing, especially during the summer months as the result of widespread use of air conditioners. Based on estimates of future electricity requirements, the problem may become more serious. In 1968 the total generation of electricity was slightly over 1200 billion kilowatt-hours, while estimates by the Edison Electric Institute (1968) indicate that the generation of electricity will range from 6 to 10 trillion kilowatt-hours in 30 years.
The objective of this paper is to investigate the factors determining the demand for electricity by time of day and extend the level of disaggregation used in prior studies. The emphasis is placed on estimating the demand for electricity over the 24 hour load curve and, in particular, to ascertain the sensitivity of demand to price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the summary of the provisional plan of producing a substantial proportion of electricity needs through nuclear power by 1965 in Great Britain. This plan is set to produce twelve power reactors in the next ten years, and provides an indication of likely developments in the following ten years. The Calder Hall is the first attempt in the country to produce electric power from nuclear energy, and further development are projected to use the main nuclear fuel and reduce the capital cost per kilowatt-hour. Details about the probable cost of nuclear power, the provisional program, the capital cost, the long-term and international aspects, and the place of program in government's fuel policy are discussed.

In a paper published, Professor W. P. Gramm makes the interesting claim that if the public is informed and concerned, the market can provide a motivation to the firm not in pure competition to use low pollution methods of production. The paper displays a dichotomy between assumptions concerning behavior of firms and assumptions concerning the behavior of individuals. Professor Gramm shows some recognition of this point. Advertisers, however have begun to appeal to the "social responsibility" of the consumer to purchase products differentiated on the basis of non pollution. Automobile non pollution advertising usually mentions an engine designed to operate efficiently on low-lead or no lead gasolines thus lowering pollution in use. A supermarket which installed aids to non pollution, including information on the ecological effects of various cleaning products, found that total sales rose nearly 5 percent over a 3 month period. This distinction is illustrated by some electrical utility advertising stressing low pollution at the pint of use but ignoring the pollution involved in producing electric power.

The article provides an update on the study about peak load pricing for electric utilities. The author presented a comparison on the studies conducted by M. Marcel Boiteux, H. S. Houthakker and Steiner on peak load pricing. According to the author, Boiteux's article provided a thorough and complete performance that there was scarcely any result of interest in the English literature not already stated by him. In addition, the author emphasized Steiner's major contribution on studying the distinction between the firm-peak and shifting peak cases, and the solution for efficient prices in the long-run capacity equilibrium.

The article discusses the rationale of the participation of Monsanto Co. in the development of nuclear power. First, the operation of nuclear reactors basically concerns chemical engineering. Second, the company consumes huge amounts of electric power, and nuclear power may be a cost-effective alternative. This assertion is validated by Monsanto's research conducted for the U.N. Atomic Energy Commission that electricity produced from a nuclear plant costs only a little more than the cost of generating power from conventional coal-powered plants. Third, Monsanto foresees that it can produce plutonium at a lower price to the government than the prevailing cost.

This article presents information on the role played by technological innovations in the electric utility industry which would help to meet up the requirements of power generation. Although the process of technological innovations is composed of research and development, invention and innovation, the study presented in this article examines only the innovations pioneered by electric utilities, such as new financial and accounting techniques. Innovations in hydroelectric power generation is also considered. Despite the apparent need for additional research and development expenditures, the electric utility industry historically has spent relatively little of its own funds on energy related research and development. The process of technological advance is dichotomized in the electric power industry. The electric utilities, with few exceptions, purchase technology from electrical equipment manufacturers and pay for this new technology in the purchase price of the equipment. The manufacturers innovate by pioneering the design, development, and production of power equipment, whereas the utilities innovate by being the first to install, operate, and apply the equipment to generate electric power.

The application of the utility-maximization hypothesis to decision-making within private and political business firms appears to be very fruitful. Several testable propositions were deduced, and a critical review of the published evidence pertaining to the electric power industry generally supports the approach taken. The main findings pertaining to the electric power industry are as follows. The regulation of privately-owned firms seems to yield, among other things, a slightly lower structure of rates which is more favorable to the larger users, and to industrial users in particular, relative to other, more numerous user groups. There is also growing support for the Averch-Johnson overcapitalization hypothesis. The information regarding the consequences of government ownership is richer and more varied, particularly as a result of Peltzman's imaginative research. More specifically, the evidence suggests that municipal firms, relative to privately-owned regulated firms, in general will: charge lower prices; have greater capacity; spend more on plant construction; have higher operating costs; engage in less wealth-maximizing price discrimination, including fewer peak-related tariffs; relate price discrimination less closely to the demand and supply conditions applicable to each group of users; favor business relative to residential users; offer a smaller variety of output; change prices less frequently and in response to larger changes in economic determinants; adopt cost-reducing innovations less readily; maintain managers in office longer; exhibit greater variation in rates of return. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on the work done on manufacturing industries. One of the books written on the topic is "False Advertising: An Exposé of the Propaganda Against Margarine and the Margarine Industry," by J.S. Abbott. Another book is "The Development of Horsepower Equipment in the United States," by C.R. Daugherty. There is also a doctoral thesis from the University of Pennsylvania, and a reprint from Water Supply Paper 579, published by the U. S. Geological Survey. Another book is "Fifty Years of Match Making, 1878-1928," by H. Manchester. Another book is "Power Capacity and Production in the United States," written by C.R. Daugherty, A.H. Horton and R.W. davenport. Other books are "Representative Industries in the United States," "Electric-Power. Industry, Supply of Electrical Equipment and Competitive Conditions," "Facts and Figures of the Automobile Industry," and "Preliminary Report: Central Electric Station Industry in Canada, 1926," edited by H.T. Warshow. K. Moebius edited the book "Handbuch der Eisen- und Stahi-Waren-Industrie."

The article presents a comment on a previous article by Edwin Fleischmann in response to author's article New England Power Economics that appeared in the August 1965 issue of the journal Land Economics. According to the author, Fleischmann expresses concern about the use of Federal Power Commission (FPC) data to substantiate the argument that New England power costs are higher than in other parts of the country. He quotes the FPC qualification that this presentation of typical electric bills does not include a critical evaluation of many factors, which operate to produce differences in the level of bills. According to the author, it was atomic electric plants as expressed in the Land Economics article that New England electric rates would most significantly bring down his belief. The six new atomic plants under construction or planned for New England by 1972 show utility acceptance of the atomic promise. Furthermore, the growth of the nuclear capacity will have important indirect effects.

Economic pressures have brought about a change in the Conductors of electrical power cables; aluminium is now widely used in place of copper. The development of a jointing flux containing aminoethylethanolamine made this possible, and this has been very extensively used by the Electricity Supply Industry in this country. This amine has given rise to a high incidence of dermatitis amongst cable jointers, and is here shown to be a powerful sensitizer. Surveys have shown an incidence of dermatitis of 10% to more than 30%, in all grades of severity. A satisfactory alternative flux has been developed and is now in field use. This investigation underlines many principles of economic as well as medical importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the introduction of electric power in the U.S. manufacturing industry. Probably, the most sweeping and complex technological change in American manufacturing over the past century has been electrification. It dates from 1885-90, a period that saw two critical revisions made in the original Edison electrical systems: alternating current equipment, namely, the transformers and alternators produced and sold commercially by Westinghouse and, after 1892, General Electric; and Nicola Tesla's polyphase electric motor. Both were indispensable in applying electricity to industrial operations. The first statistical report of electric motors in manufacturing plants is the "Census Office Report on Manufacturing Industries in the United States at the Eleventh Census: 1890," which lags not far behind prior discussions, in business and engineering literature, of actual installations in plants. Of 360 industries canvassed at that time, 208 had stationary electric motors of one sort or another, although in almost every industry reporting such motors, a mere handful of establishments was responsible for them.

The article reports that the Tennessee Valley Authority has been created to plan and supervise an elaborate scheme of land and waterway development within which its electrical operations form only a part. The generation and sale of electric power, as contemplated in the Act and as stated in public pronouncements of the Authority, may nevertheless be treated for many purposes as a set of operations independent of other objectives. It was largely for carrying on these operations that the Authority was given the form of a government proprietary corporation. The navigation, flood control, and other purposes of the Act have usually in the past been assigned to traditional government agencies. The operation of the nitrate plants at Muscle Shoals as fertilizer manufactories might well have been entrusted to the War Department, under whose aegis these plants were built and maintained. The Tennessee Valley Authority in its capacity as an electric utility enterprise is not only a venture in public ownership and operation but an attempt to discover information concerning power costs and rates relevant to the area now occupied by regulated private enterprise.

The article focuses on the economic planning function in the regulation of electricity as a public service. Regulation of electric utilities at its best has failed to accomplish its basic purpose. This failure has been due in large measure to the fact that it has avoided or evaded its essential economic planning function. It has thus left the key to abundant electricity at the lowest possible rates to quasi-monopolistic, privately-owned corporations without incentive to use it or to the influence of public competition. The failure of regulation, except as aided by actual or potential public competition, to assure the lowest possible electric rates and the most abundant use has been due mainly to a static interpretation of its function. Rate cases have consisted largely in determining whether the profits of last year's limited business represent more or less than a fair return on some rate base. No effective effort has been made to require the best organization of the power supply function in the interest of low-cost power on a regional basis. Finally in the modern world per capita use of energy and particularly electrical energy has proved a highly satisfactory measure of the civilization and living standard enjoyed by any people.

This article focuses on the U.S. government action on private enterprise in river valley development. For the purposes of this discussion, the author confines himself to river valley development to his own experience as administrator of the Bonneville Power Administration, which has the responsibility for marketing the power generated at Bonneville and Grand Coulee dams as well as from all future federal projects in the Pacific Northwest. Economically speaking, the Bonneville Power Administration, which constructs and operates transmission lines, substations, and other facilities to bring the power to the load centers, is unique in that it is the major supplier of the only indigenous energy base of the Pacific Northwest capable of being expanded to meet the needs of the region. Utilities, both privately and publicly owned, as well as industry, are looking to the federal government to develop low cost Columbia River hydro power to satisfy their increasing electric energy requirements.

The studies described are (1) the development of a `self-correcting' system for estimating, up to twelve months in advance, the future monthly mean levels of Lake Erie, which control the flow available for power generation at Niagara Falls, (2) the development of a system for forecasting daily peak loads up to twenty-four hours in advance, based on a new model of load behavior, whose input is a normal weather forecast and whose output has a median error of less than 1 per cent, (3) the development of a method for determining the optimum replacement point for trucks in a large fleet under changing economic conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of this study indicate that a significant part of the variation in changes in performance not explained by the other variables in the model is explained by changes in productivity for the three firms studied. To the extent that the particular specification of variables is successful, this relationship indicates that the expected relationship between technical change and performance can be discerned empirically. Also, it appears that on the average the expected positive effects on earnings due to management decisions to make technical changes are being realized. While this favorable result is encouraging, it does not mean that this result can be extended to other firms even if they are drawn from the same industry. Several additional favorable replications of the experiment in the electric power industry chosen to include firms that used hydro-generated power, that are from other geographical regions, and that are of different sizes than the firms included in this study would be required to make generalized statements about the industry as a whole. An extension of this study that would make its results potentially useful for evaluating technical change decisions would be to develop a means of estimating the relationship between these decisions and measured technical change. This extension may be relatively difficult because of the likelihood of considerable time lags between the decisions and their physical outcome. If successful, a manager might then be able to evaluate on average both the effectiveness with which the technical change decisions are carried-out and the effect of that outcome on reported earnings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the atomic energy programs of Sweden for 1969, which include the building of a combined power and heat producing reactor to be completed during 1960-1961. Two power-producing units in the 100 megawatt range scheduled for completion by the middle of the 1960s, and one more power-producing unit of several hundred megawatts by the end of the decade. Harry Brynielsson, head of the semi-public AB Atomenergi, emphasizes that the country's output of electric power to 95% is based on the utilization of water power resources.

Comments on several articles about energy policy in the U.S. Examples of environmental regulations that affect energy supply and consumption; Policy for oil import control; Incentives as a basis for evaluating energy policy.

The article reports global developments related to nuclear energy. A power reactor symposium was held in Belgium on November 29 to 30, 1956. The Calder Hall reactor is operating at a 10,000 electrical kilowatt level instead of the thirty-five to forty thousand level for which it was designed because of leaks which have developed in the cooling system. The differences between France and West Germany on the six-nation nuclear community were settled when Chancellor Konrad Adenauer came to Paris in early November 1956.

The article offers world news briefs. The greater part of Great Britain's electricity will be generated from atomic energy by year 2000 as predicted by the director of British Atomic Energy Corporation. A fund amounting to $200, 000 was reserved by the Ontario Hydro-Electric Power System for the purpose of an atomic power study.

The article presents a critique to the commentary's reply about the economic theory of pricing and peak-load problem in electric power supply. The author intends to justify his proposed solutions. According to the author, the study conducted has overlooked a constraint under which his solution was derived. In addition, the author explained that his purpose of questioning the theory was to determine the extent of the time interval to which each of the two prices applies as well as the levels of those prices.

The article presents documentation and reports related to the development in industrial sector in the Western hemisphere. "Electric Power in Latin America." The book discusses about a study of the electrical power industry of Latin America, particularly of its financing. Some suggestions are made for the improvement of electric power there. The book is based on a study conducted for the Harvard Law School. The United States and Latin America. The main subjects that are discussed here consists of "Understanding Latin America," by Herbert L. Matthews; "Toward an Appreciation of Latin America," by Frank Tannenbaum; "Political Change in Latin America" by K. H. Silvert; "The Role of the Press and Communications," by Edward W. Barrett and Penn T. Kimball; "The Economic Picture," by Reynold E. Carlson; "Diplomatic Relations," by Herbert L. Matthews; and "Latin American Governments and the United States," by Charles G. Fenwick.