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Forest fires are expected to be more frequent and more intense with climate change, including in temperate and mountain forest ecosystems. In the Alps, forest vulnerability to fire resulting from interactions between climate, fuel types, vegetation structure and tree resistance to fire is little understood. This paper aims at identifying trends in the vulnerability of Alpine forest ecosystems to fire at different scales (tree species, stand level and biogeographic level) and according to three different climatic conditions (cold season, average summer and extremely dry summer). To explore Alpine forest vulnerability to fire, we used surface fuel measurements, forest inventory and fire weather data to simulate fire behaviour and ultimately post-fire tree mortality across 4438 forest plots in the French Alps. The results showed that cold season fires (about 50% of the fires in the French Alps) have a limited impact except on low-elevation forests of the Southern Alps (mainly Oak, Scots pine). In average summer conditions, mixed and broadleaved forests of low elevations suffer the highest mortality rates (up to 75% in coppices). Finally, summer fires occurring in extremely dry conditions promote high mortality across all forest communities. Lowest mortality rates were observed in high forest stands composed of tree species presenting adaptation to surface fires (e.g. thick bark, high canopy) such as Larch forests of the internal Alps. This study provides insights on the vulnerability of the main tree species and forest ecosystems of the French Alps useful for the adaptation of forest management practices to climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mediterranean forests and fire regimes are closely intertwined. Global change is likely to alter both forest dynamics and wildfire activity, ultimately threatening the provision of ecosystem services and posing greater risks to society. In this paper we evaluate future wildfire behavior by coupling climate projections with simulation models of forest dynamics and wildfire hazard. To do so, we explore different forest management scenarios reflecting different narratives related to EU forestry (promotion of carbon stocks, reduction of water vulnerability, biomass production and business-as-usual) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate pathways in the period 2020–2100. We used as a study model pure submediterranean Pinus nigra forests of central Catalonia (NE Spain). Forest dynamics were simulated from the 3rd National Forest Inventory (143 stands) using SORTIE-nd software based on climate projections under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The climate products were also used to estimate fuel moisture conditions (both live and dead) and wind speed. Fuel parameters and fire behavior were then simulated, selecting crown fire initiation potential and rate of spread as key indicators. The results revealed consistent trade-offs between forest dynamics, climate and wildfire. Despite the clear influence exerted by climate, forest management modulates fire behavior, resulting in different trends depending on the climatic pathway. In general, the maintenance of current practices would result in the highest rates of crown fire activity, while management for water vulnerability reduction is postulated as the best alternative to surmount the increasingly hazardous conditions envisaged in RCP 8.5. • We simulate forest, climate, and wildfire dynamics under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. • We forecast wildfire hazard in terms of crown fire potential and rate of spread. • Current management practices will not be able to surmount the increased hazard. • Management for water vulnerability reduction is postulated as the best alternative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]