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Epidemiologic screening programs often make use of tests with small, but nonzero probabilities of misdiagnosis. In this article, we assume the target population is finite with a fixed number of true cases, and that we apply an imperfect test with known sensitivity and specificity to a sample of individuals from the population. In this setting, we propose an enhanced inferential approach for use in conjunction with sampling-based bias-corrected prevalence estimation. While ignoring the finite nature of the population can yield markedly conservative estimates, direct application of a standard finite population correction (FPC) conversely leads to underestimation of variance. We uncover a way to leverage the typical FPC indirectly toward valid statistical inference. In particular, we derive a readily estimable extra variance component induced by misclassification in this specific but arguably common diagnostic testing scenario. Our approach yields a standard error estimate that properly captures the sampling variability of the usual bias-corrected maximum likelihood estimator of disease prevalence. Finally, we develop an adapted Bayesian credible interval for the true prevalence that offers improved frequentist properties (i.e., coverage and width) relative to a Wald-type confidence interval. We report the simulation results to demonstrate the enhanced performance of the proposed inferential methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Health & Nursing Management / Sağlık ve Hemşirelik Yönetimi Dergisi is the property of Logos Medical Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The process capability index is a tool for quality measurement and analysis widely used in the industry. It is also a good tool for the sales department to communicate with customers. Although the value of the process capability index can be affected by the accuracy and precision of the process, the index itself cannot be differentiated. Therefore, the process incapability index is directly divided into two items, accuracy and precision, based on the expected value of the Taguchi process loss function. In fact, accuracy and precision are two important reference items for improving the manufacturing process. Thus, the process incapability index is good for evaluating process quality. The process incapability index contains two unknown parameters, so it needs to be estimated with sample data. Since point estimates are subject to misjudgment incurred by the inaccuracy of sampling, and since modern businesses are in the era of rapid response, the size of sampling usually tends to be small. A number of studies have suggested that a fuzzy testing method built on the confidence interval be adopted at this time because it integrates experts and the experience accumulated in the past. In addition to a decrease in the possibility of misjudgment resulting from sampling error, this method can improve the test accuracy. Therefore, based on the confidence interval of the process incapability index, we proposed the fuzzy testing method to assess whether the process capability can attain a necessary level of quality. If the quality level fails to meet the requirement, then an improvement must be made. If the quality level exceeds the requirement, then it is equivalent to excess quality, and a resource transfer must be considered to reduce costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policy makers, firms, and researchers often choose among multiple options based on estimates. Sampling error in the estimates used to guide choice leads to a winner's curse, since we are more likely to select a given option precisely when we overestimate its effectiveness. This winner's curse biases our estimates for selected options upward and can invalidate conventional confidence intervals. This article develops estimators and confidence intervals that eliminate this winner's curse. We illustrate our results by studying selection of job-training programs based on estimated earnings effects and selection of neighborhoods based on estimated economic opportunity. We find that our winner's curse corrections can make an economically significant difference to conclusions but still allow informative inference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on some studies, there are many important parts of tool machines, all of which have some essential smaller-the-better-type quality characteristics. The six sigma quality index of the smaller-the-better type offers accurate measurement of the process yield and the six sigma quality level. In this paper, we first proposed a six sigma product index by integrating all evaluation indicators for products that contain several quality characteristics of the smaller-the-better type. Next, we derived the confidence interval of this six sigma product index and developed an evaluation model for product quality. When a product passes the evaluation of this model, not only can it be guaranteed that the product reaches the required quality level, but also a high rate of product yield can be ensured. In addition, we also created a product improvement testing model, which can avoid missing opportunities for improvement in the process to ensure improvement effects. This complete evaluation and improvement model is applicable to the entire machine tool industry chain. It can not only increase the product value of the machine tool industry chain but also decrease environmental pollution caused by rework or scrap, which is beneficial to companies to enhance their image of fulfilling social responsibilities. Apart from the above advantages, the model formed in this paper is based on confidence intervals, thereby reducing the chance of misjudgment resulting from sampling error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A performance evaluation matrix (PEM) is an evaluation tool for assessing customer satisfaction and the importance of service items across various services. In addition, inferences based on point estimates of sample data can increase the risk of misjudgment due to sampling errors. Thus, this paper creates a decision-making model for a performance evaluation matrix based on upper confidence limits to provide various service operating systems for performance evaluation and decision making. The concept is that through the gap between customer satisfaction and the level of importance of each service item, we are able to identify critical-to-quality (CTQ) service items requiring improvement. Many studies have indicated that customer satisfaction and the importance of service items follow a beta distribution, and based on the two parameters of this distribution, the proposed indices for customer satisfaction and the importance of service items represent standardization. The vertical axis of a PEM represents the importance index; the horizontal axis represents the satisfaction index. Since these two indices have unknown parameters, this paper uses the upper confidence limit of the satisfaction index to find out the CTQ service items and the upper confidence limit of the importance index to determine the order of improvement priority for each service item. This paper then establishes a decision-making model for a PEM based on the above-mentioned decision-making rules. Since all decision-making rules proposed in this paper are established through upper confidence limits, the risk of misjudgment caused by sampling errors can be reduced. Finally, this article uses a practical example to illustrate how to use a PEM to find CTQ service items and determine the order of improvement priority for these service items that need to be improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classical randomized experiments, equipped with randomization-based inference, provide assumption-free inference for treatment effects. They have been the gold standard for drawing causal inference and provide excellent internal validity. However, they have also been criticized for questionable external validity, in the sense that the conclusion may not generalize well to a larger population. The randomized survey experiment is a design tool that can help mitigate this concern, by randomly selecting the experimental units from the target population of interest. However, as pointed out by Morgan and Rubin, chance imbalances often exist in covariate distributions between different treatment groups even under completely randomized experiments. Not surprisingly, such covariate imbalances also occur in randomized survey experiments. Furthermore, the covariate imbalances happen not only between different treatment groups, but also between the sampled experimental units and the overall population of interest. In this article, we propose a two-stage rerandomization design that can actively avoid undesirable covariate imbalances at both the sampling and treatment assignment stages. We further develop asymptotic theory for rerandomized survey experiments, demonstrating that rerandomization provides better covariate balance, more precise treatment effect estimators, and shorter large-sample confidence intervals. We also propose covariate adjustment to deal with remaining covariate imbalances after rerandomization, showing that it can further improve both the sampling and estimated precision. Our work allows general relationship among covariates at the sampling, treatment assignment and analysis stages, and generalizes both rerandomization in classical randomized experiments and rejective sampling in survey sampling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is important to estimate the sample data when inspecting the quality of products. Therefore, sampling error and uncertainty in the measurement are inevitable, which may lead to misjudgment in product performance evaluation. Since the important quality characteristics of gasoline belong to one-sided specifications, a one-sided specification capability index was proposed to evaluate whether the process capabilities of various quality characteristics of gasoline reach the required quality levels. The 100(1−α)% upper confidence limits of the index were obtained to ensure low producer's risk and reduce sampling errors. To deal with fuzzy data and limited sample sizes, a fuzzy testing model based on the 100(1−α)% upper confidence limits of the index was developed. A practice example of 95 unleaded gasoline was used to illustrate the effectiveness and usefulness of the proposed method. The result shows that two quality characteristics—Reid vapor pressure and oxygen content—of the nine quality characteristics of the 95 unleaded gasoline should be considered for improvements. This study provided an evaluation procedure to facilitate quality managers to take the opportunity to improve product quality, promoting the improvement of air quality, and the sustainability of industrial processes or products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical power analyses are used in the design of experiments to determine the required number of specimens, and thus the expenditure, of a test. Commonly, when analyzing and planning life tests of technical products, only the confidence level is taken into account for assessing uncertainty. However, due to the sampling error, the confidence interval estimation varies from test to test; therefore, the number of specimens needed to yield a successful reliability demonstration cannot be derived by this. In this paper, a procedure is presented that facilitates the integration of statistical power analysis into reliability demonstration test planning. The Probability of Test Success is introduced as a metric in order to place the statistical power in the context of life test planning of technical products. It contains the information concerning the probability that a life test is capable of demonstrating a required lifetime, reliability, and confidence. In turn, it enables the assessment and comparison of various life test types, such as success run, non-censored, and censored life tests. The main results are four calculation methods for the Probability of Test Success for various test scenarios: a general method which is capable of dealing with all possible scenarios, a calculation method mimicking the actual test procedure, and two analytic approaches for failure-free and failure-based tests which make use of the central limit theorem and asymptotic properties of several statistics, and therefore simplify the effort involved in planning life tests. The calculation methods are compared and their respective advantages and disadvantages worked out; furthermore, the scenarios in which each method is to be preferred are illustrated. The applicability of the developed procedure for planning reliability demonstration tests using the Probability of Test Success is additionally illustrated by a case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a new method of estimating accepted species diversity by adapting mark-recapture methods to comparisons of taxonomic databases. A taxonomic database should become more complete over time, so the error bar on an estimate of its completeness and the known diversity of the taxon it treats will decrease. Independent databases can be correlated, so we use the time course of estimates comparing them to understand the effect of correlation. If a later estimate is significantly larger than an earlier one, the databases are positively correlated, if it is significantly smaller, they are negatively correlated, and if the estimate remains roughly constant, then the correlations have averaged out. We tested this method by estimating how complete MolluscaBase is for accepted names of terrestrial gastropods. Using random samples of names from an independent database, we determined whether each name led to a name accepted in MolluscaBase. A sample tested in August 2020 found that 16.7% of tested names were missing; one in July 2021 found 5.3% missing. MolluscaBase grew by almost 3,000 accepted species during this period, reaching 27,050 species. The estimates ranged from 28,409 ± 365 in 2021 to 29,063 ± 771 in 2020. All estimates had overlapping 95% confidence intervals, indicating that correlations between the databases did not cause significant problems. Uncertainty beyond sampling error added 475 ± 430 species, so our estimate for accepted terrestrial gastropods species at the end of 2021 is 28,895 ± 630 species. This estimate is more than 4,000 species higher than previous ones. The estimate does not account for ongoing flux of species into and out of synonymy, new discoveries, or changing taxonomic methods and concepts. The species naming curve for terrestrial gastropods is still far from reaching an asymptote, and combined with the additional uncertainties, this means that predicting how many more species might ultimately be recognized is presently not feasible. Our methods can be applied to estimate the total number of names of Recent mollusks (as opposed to names currently accepted), the known diversity of fossil mollusks, and known diversity in other phyla. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous studies have pointed out that the issue of global warming is getting increasingly more serious. Therefore, the concepts of circular economy (CE) and sharing economy have been more and more valued by enterprises and governments. With the gradual popularization and maturity of the Internet of Things (IoT), various smart APP platforms have sprung up rapidly. For example, the fuzzy evaluation model of bank APP performance was proposed in such an environment, aiming to improve the APP service performance by means of evaluating, analyzing, improving, and enhancing customers' satisfaction with their use of APPs, and increasing the number of users of APPs. Since the follow-up of the article did not mention the improved testing model used to verify the improvement effect, this paper then proposed a fuzzy two-tailed testing model with two indices before and after the improvement based on the confidence interval to verify whether the improvement has had a significant effect. This complete bank APP fuzzy performance evaluation, analysis, and improvement model measured the bank APP operation performance using customer time intervals, so the data collection time was short. Not only can it meet enterprises' need for rapid response and grasp the opportunity for improvement to achieve the effect of energy-saving and carbon reduction, but it also can satisfy enterprises' requirement to pursue fast and accurate decision-making. Furthermore, the fuzzy two-tailed test proposed by this paper was based on the confidence interval, which can reduce the risk of misjudgment caused by sampling error. Plenty of studies have indicated that the designs based on confidence intervals can integrate expert experience and past data so that the accuracy of testing can be maintained in the case of small-sized samples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The operating performance index (OPI) was developed by Chen and Yang (J Comput Appl Math 343:737–747, 2018) from the Six Sigma process quality index. The fact that OPIs include unknown parameters means that they must be formulated using estimates based on sample data. Unfortunately, cost and effectiveness considerations in practice have led to sample size limitation and measurement uncertainty. In this study, we sought to enhance testing accuracy and overcome the uncertainties in measurement by applying confidence intervals of OPI to derive a fuzzy number and membership function for OPI. We developed a one-tailed fuzzy test method to determine whether performance reaches the required level. We also developed a two-tailed fuzzy testing method based on two OPIs to serve as a verification model for the effectiveness of improvement measures. Both fuzzy testing methods are proposed based on confidence intervals of the indices to reduce the risk of misjudgment caused by sampling errors and enhance testing accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate characterization of soil contaminant concentrations is often crucial for assessing risks to human and ecological health. However, fine-scale assessments of large tracts of land can be cost prohibitive due to the number of samples needed. One solution to this problem is to extrapolate sampling results from one area to another unsampled area. In the absence of a validated extrapolation methodology, regulatory agencies have employed policy-based techniques for large sites, but the likelihood of decision errors resulting from these extrapolations is largely unexplored. This study describes the results of a simulation study aimed at guiding environmental sampling for sites where extrapolation concepts are of interest. The objective of this study is to provide practical recommendations to regulatory agencies for extrapolating sampling results on large tracts of land while minimizing errors that are detrimental to human health. A variety of site investigation scenarios representative of environmental conditions and sampling schemes were tested using adaptive sampling when collecting discrete samples or applying incremental sampling methodology (ISM). These simulations address extrapolation uncertainty in cases where a Pilot Study might result in either false noncompliance or false compliance conclusions. A wide range of plausible scenarios were used that reflect the variety of heterogeneity seen at large sites. This simulation study demonstrates that ISM can be reliably applied in a Pilot Study for purposes of extrapolating the outcome to a large area site because it decreases the likelihood of false non-compliance errors while also providing reliable estimates of true compliance across unsampled areas. The results demonstrate how errors depend on the magnitude of the 95% upper confidence limit for the mean concentration (95UCL) relative to the applicable action level, and that error rates are highest when the 95UCL is within 10%–40% of the action level. The false compliance rate can be reduced to less than 5% when 30% or more of the site is characterized with ISM. False compliance error rates using ISM are insensitive to the fraction of the decision units (DUs) that are characterized with three replicates (with a minimum of 10 percent), so long as 95UCLs are calculated for the DUs with one replicate using the average coefficient of variation from the three replicate DUs. • Environmental assessments of large tracts of land often use extrapolation methods. • Simulations support the use of extrapolation for the protection of human health. • An average coefficient of variation predicts upper end concentrations. • Using discrete sampling, 30% of the site must be characterized before extrapolation. • Incremental sampling requires 10% site characterization before extrapolation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Texto & Contexto Enfermagem is the property of Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Programa de Pos-Graduacao de Enfermagem and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article provides understanding of the most important information that clinicians need to know about meta-analyses. Topics discussed are dispersion of true effects of size and dispersion secondary to sampling error, equation for the prediction interval and its use in the practice of clinical medicine as well as in choosing among treatments, and distinction of prediction from confidence interval.

Numerous scholars have invested in the research of service innovation management, hoping to find a more objective and scientific service efficiency evaluation and management model so as to stride forward towards the goal of smart innovation management. In the service operating system, the multi-workstation service operation is one of the common service operation models. Some studies have pointed out: apart from a good service attitude, the service operation time of each workstation is a key factor which measures the performance of the workstation's service operation. Therefore, this paper proposed a standardized concept with a service operation efficiency evaluation index. This index is not only convenient and easy-to-use, but it also has a one-to-one mathematical relationship with the performance achievement rate. Next, the radar evaluation chart was employed to evaluate the service efficiency of each workstation. First, according to the upper confidence limit and the required value of the index, the minimum value (MV) of the index estimator was derived and marked on each radar line; at the same time, all MVs were connected to form a control block. When the point estimate of the index does not fall into the control block of the radar chart, it represents that the service operation efficiency of the workstation has not reached the required level, so it needs to be improved. Because this model can directly compare the point estimate of the index with the MV, it can judge whether the service operation efficiency reaches the required level. In this way, the advantage of simple and easy-to-use point estimate can be maintained, and the risk of misjudgment caused by sampling errors can be reduced as well, which is helpful for the service industry to move towards the goal of intelligent innovation management. This method is not only applied to the performance evaluation of the multi-workstation service operation process but also applicable to the performance evaluations of other service operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cohen's kappa coefficient was originally proposed for two raters only, and it later extended to an arbitrarily large number of raters to become what is known as Fleiss' generalized kappa. Fleiss' generalized kappa and its large-sample variance are still widely used by researchers and were implemented in several software packages, including, among others, SPSS and the R package "rel." The purpose of this article is to show that the large-sample variance of Fleiss' generalized kappa is systematically being misused, is invalid as a precision measure for kappa, and cannot be used for constructing confidence intervals. A general-purpose variance expression is proposed, which can be used in any statistical inference procedure. A Monte-Carlo experiment is presented, showing the validity of the new variance estimation procedure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study develops a theoretical model for the costs of an exam as a function of its duration. Two kind of costs are distinguished: (1) the costs of measurement errors and (2) the costs of the measurement. Both costs are expressed in time of the student. Based on a classical test theory model, enriched with assumptions on the context, the costs of the exam can be expressed as a function of various parameters, including the duration of the exam. It is shown that these costs can be minimized in time. Applied in a real example with reliability.80, the outcome is that the optimal exam time would be much shorter and would have reliability.675. The consequences of the model are investigated and discussed. One of the consequences is that optimal exam duration depends on the study load of the course, all other things being equal. It is argued that it is worthwhile to investigate empirically how much time students spend on preparing for resits. Six variants of the model are distinguished, which differ in their weights of the errors and in the way grades affect how much time students study for the resit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Taguchi capability index, which reflects the expected loss and the yield of a process, is a useful index for evaluating the quality of a process. Several scholars have proposed a process improvement capability index based on the expected value of the Taguchi loss function as well as the corresponding cost of process improvement. There have been a number of studies using the Taguchi capability index to develop suppliers' process quality evaluation models, whereas models for evaluating suppliers' process improvement potential have been relatively lacking. Thus, this study applies the process improvement capability index to develop an evaluation model of the supplier's process improvement capability, which can be provided to the industry for application. Besides, owing to the current need to respond quickly, coupled with cost considerations and the limits of technical capabilities, the sample size for sampling testing is usually not large. Consequently, the evaluation model of the process improvement capability developed in this study adopts a fuzzy testing method based on the confidence interval. This method reduces the risk of misjudgment due to sampling errors and improves the testing accuracy because it can incorporate experts and their accumulated experiences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether it is important components of a machine tool itself or various important components processed by the machine tool, many vital quality characteristics mostly belong to the smaller-the-better type. When the process quality levels of these quality characteristics do not attain to the criteria, friction loss may increase during the machine operation, affecting not only the process precision and accuracy but also the lifetime of the product. Therefore, this study applied a smaller-the-better six-sigma quality index simultaneously demonstrating process quality level and process yield. Besides, in coping with statistical process control data, a one-tail confidence-interval-based fuzzy testing method was developed to evaluate process quality. Because this approach is built on the basis of confidence intervals, it can reduce the possibility of misjudgment resulting from sampling errors as well as integrate past experience to enhance the accuracy and precision of the assessment, and then it can grasp the timeliness of improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many important parts of tool machines all have the important smaller-the-better (STB) quality characteristics. The important STB quality characteristics will impact on the quality of the end-product. At the same time, supplier quality influences the quality and functionality of the end-product, so suppliers must be selected with caution. The six sigma quality index for the STB quality characteristics can directly reflect process quality levels. Besides, this index possesses a mathematical relationship with process yield. Nevertheless, the point estimation will cause the risk of misjudgment, due to sampling errors. As a result, this study applies the confidence interval of the index to a two-tailed fuzzy testing method, in order to select appropriate suppliers. Now that this method is on the basis of the confidence interval, the possibility of misjudgment caused by sampling errors will be reduced, while the precision of the selection will be enhanced. The method can help companies increase product quality, as well as the competitiveness of the industry chain as a whole. Finally, a numerical example is presented to show how to approach this method and its efficacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nonresponse is a potential source of errors in sample surveys. It introduces bias and large variance in the estimation of finite population parameters. Regression models have been recognized as one of the techniques of reducing bias and variance due to random nonresponse using auxiliary data. In this study, it is assumed that random nonresponse occurs in the survey variable in the second stage of cluster sampling, assuming full auxiliary information is available throughout. Auxiliary information is used at the estimation stage via a regression model to address the problem of random nonresponse. In particular, auxiliary information is used via an improved Nadaraya–Watson kernel regression technique to compensate for random nonresponse. The asymptotic bias and mean squared error of the estimator proposed are derived. Besides, a simulation study conducted indicates that the proposed estimator has smaller values of the bias and smaller mean squared error values compared to existing estimators of a finite population mean. The proposed estimator is also shown to have tighter confidence interval lengths at 95 % coverage rate. The results obtained in this study are useful for instance in choosing efficient estimators of a finite population mean in demographic sample surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an operating performance index (OPI) based directly on the Six Sigma process quality index. We considered the following case: the number of customers arriving at a store follows a Poisson process of rate λ and the sequence of inter-arrival times is an exponential random variable with mean τ , where τ = 1/ λ. In operating performance assessments, using the statistical testing to evaluate the OPI can lower the risk of misjudgment caused by sampling error. A smaller sample size entails a larger sampling error, while a larger sample size entails a smaller sampling error. Thus, using critical value for statistical testing can result in inconsistencies for different sample size. We therefore referred to the one-tailed fuzzy method proposed by Buckley (2005) for the parameters of population distributions and developed a two-tailed fuzzy test for the OPI to assess operating performance. The advantage of this approach is that conventional measurement methods can be used during data collection, and then the confidence interval of the OPI can be used to construct a fuzzy membership function for fuzzy testing. This not only lowers the risk of misjudgment caused by sampling error, but also enhances testing accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microplastics (MPs), plastic particles <5 mm in diameter, are emerging ubiquitous pollutants in natural environments, including freshwater ecosystems. As rivers facilitate efficient transport among landscapes, monitoring is crucial for elucidating the origin, dynamics, and fate of MPs. However, standardized methodologies for in situ sampling in freshwater environments remain undefined to date. Specifically, evaluating the sampling error of MP concentration estimates is crucial for comparing results among studies. This study proposes a novel method for computing confidence intervals (CIs) from a single estimate of numerical concentration (expressed in particles·m−3). MPs are expected to disperse according to purely random processes, such as turbulent diffusion, and to consequently exhibit a random distribution pattern that follows a Poisson point process. Accordingly, the present study introduced a framework based on the Poisson point process to compute CIs, which were validated using MP samples from two urban rivers in Chiba, Japan, obtained using a mesh with an opening size of 335 μm. Random number simulations revealed that the CIs were applicable when ≥10 MPs were present in a sample. Further, when ≥50 MPs were present in a sample, the sampling error (95% CI) was within ±30% of the concentration estimates. The proposed framework allows for the intercomparison of single river MP samples despite the lack of sample replicates. Further, the present study emphasizes that the volume of sampled river water is the only controllable parameter that can reduce the sampling error. [Display omitted] • Assuming Poisson process allows computation of CIs for single MP samplings. • Collecting ≥50 MPs allows 95% CI within ±30% of concentration estimate. • Sample water volume is the only controllable parameter to reduce sampling error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the face of fierce global competition, firms are outsourcing important but nonessential tasks to external professional companies. Corporations are also turning from competitive business models to cooperative strategic partnerships in hopes of swiftly responding to consumer needs and enhancing overall efficiency and industry competitiveness. This research developed an outsourcing partner selection model in hopes of helping firms select better outsourcing partners for long-term collaborations. Process quality and manufacturing time are vital when evaluating outsourcing partner. We therefore used process capability index C p m and manufacturing time performance index I h in the proposed model. Sample data from random samples are needed to calculate the point estimates of indices, however, it is impossible to obtain a sample with a structure completely identical to that of the population, which means that sampling generates unavoidable sampling errors. The reliability of point estimates are also uncertain, which inevitably leads to misjudgment in some cases. Thus, to reduce estimate errors and increase assessment reliability, we calculated the 1 0 0 (1 − α) % confidence intervals of the indices C p m and I h , then constructed the joint confidence region of C p m and I h to develop an outsourcing partner selection model that will help firms select better outsourcing partners for long-term collaborations. We also provide a case as an illustration of how the proposed selection model is implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluating the importance and the strength of empirical evidence requires asking three questions: First, what are the practical implications of the findings? Second, how precise are the estimates? Confidence intervals provide an intuitive way to communicate precision. Although nontechnical audiences often misinterpret confidence intervals (CIs), I argue that the result is less dangerous than the misunderstandings that arise from hypothesis tests. Third, is the model correctly specified? The validity of point estimates and CIs depends on the soundness of the underlying model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The usefulness of biodiversity indicators strongly increases if accompanied by measures of uncertainty. In the case of indicators that combine population indices of species, however, the inclusion of the uncertainty of the species indices has shown to be hard to realize, usually due to imperfections in monitoring programmes. Missing values and time series of different lengths preclude the use of analytical approaches, whereas bootstrapping across sites requires the raw abundance data on the site level, which may not always be available. Sometimes bootstrapping across species rather than sites is opted for, but this approach ignores the uncertainty attached to species indices. We developed a method to account for sampling error of species indices in the calculation of multi-species indicators based on Monte Carlo simulation of annual species indices. The construction of confidence intervals enables various trend assessments, like testing for linear or smooth trends, testing for changes between two time points, testing the significance of a suspected change-point and testing for differences between two multi-species indicators. Here, we compare our method with conventional methods and illustrate the benefits of our approach using Dutch breeding bird indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable measurements are key to social science research. Multiple measures of reliability of the total score have been developed, including coefficient alpha, coefficient omega, the greatest lower bound reliability, and others. Among these, the coefficient alpha has been most widely used, and it is reported in nearly every study involving the measure of a construct through multiple items in social and behavioral research. However, it is known that coefficient alpha underestimates the true reliability unless the items are tau-equivalent, and coefficient omega is deemed as a practical alternative to coefficient alpha in estimating measurement reliability of the total score. However, many researchers noticed that the difference between alpha and omega is minor in applications. Since the observed differences in alpha and omega can be due to sampling errors, the purpose of the present study, therefore, is to propose a method to evaluate the difference of coefficient alpha ( α ^ ) and omega ( ω ^ ) statistically. In particular, the current article develops a procedure to estimate the SE of ( ω ^ − α ^ ) and consequently the confidence interval (CI) for ( ω − α ). This procedure allows us to test whether the observed difference ( ω ^ − α ^ ) is due to sample error or ω ^ is significantly greater than α ^ . The developed procedure is then applied to multiple real data sets from well-known scales to empirically verify the values of ( ω ^ − α ^ ) in practice. Results showed that in most of the comparisons the differences are significantly above zero but cases also exist where the CIs contain zero. An R program for calculating ω ^ , α ^ , and the SE of ( ω ^ − α ^ ) is also included in the present study so that the developed procedure is easily accessible to applied researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A challenge when interpreting replications is determining whether the results of a replication “successfully” replicate the original study. Looking for consistency between two studies is challenging because individual studies are susceptible to many sources of error that can cause study results to deviate from each other and the population effect in unpredictable directions and magnitudes. In the current paper, we derive methods to compute a prediction interval, a range of results that can be expected in a replication due to chance (i.e., sampling error), for means and commonly used indexes of effect size: correlations and d-values. The prediction interval is calculable based on objective study characteristics (i.e., effect size of the original study and sample sizes of the original study and planned replication) even when sample sizes across studies are unequal. The prediction interval provides an a priori method for assessing if the difference between an original and replication result is consistent with what can be expected due to sample error alone. We provide open-source software tools that allow researchers, reviewers, replicators, and editors to easily calculate prediction intervals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Propensity score methods have become a popular tool for reducing selection bias in making causal inference from observational studies in medical research. Propensity score matching, a key component of propensity score methods, normally matches units based on the distance between point estimates of the propensity scores. The problem with this technique is that it is difficult to establish a sensible criterion to evaluate the closeness of matched units without knowing estimation errors of the propensity scores. Methods: The present study introduces interval matching using bootstrap confidence intervals for accommodating estimation errors of propensity scores. In interval matching, if the confidence interval of a unit in the treatment group overlaps with that of one or more units in the comparison group, they are considered as matched units. Results: The procedure of interval matching is illustrated in an empirical example using a real-life dataset from the Nursing Home Compare, a national survey conducted by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. The empirical example provided promising evidence that interval matching reduced more selection bias than did commonly used matching methods including the rival method, caliper matching. Interval matching's approach methodologically sounds more meaningful than its competing matching methods because interval matching develop a more "scientific" criterion for matching units using confidence intervals. Conclusions: Interval matching is a promisingly better alternative tool for reducing selection bias in making causal inference from observational studies, especially useful in secondary data analysis on national databases such as the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors express their views on an article by Ian McKeague and Min Qian on statistical research that is published in this issue. Topics discussed include the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) of the estimation error; estimation error when testing a null hypothesis; and confidence interval mentioned in the article that is obtained through the limit distribution from Theorem 1.

• A novel PCAC to measure products with multi-quality characteristic. • Pareto optimality to achieve the performance optimization for CM selection. • A feedback mechanism to advise ineligible CMs on quality issues. • A rigid coupling to validate the proposed methodology. Outsourcing is a crucial strategy of the mechanical manufacturing industry. When outsourcing, it is necessary for companies to carefully inspect the performance of contract manufacturers (CMs) to ensure high-quality products and satisfactory services. This study presents an integrated methodology for the quality performance assessment and optimization of products with multiple quality characteristics for CM selection in the mechanical manufacturing industry. First, we present a novel process capability analysis chart (PCAC) using the 100(1– α)% upper confidence limits of C pmh , C puh , and C plh to gauge the process capabilities of products with multiple quality characteristics and reduce the influence of sampling errors. Second, we apply Pareto optimality to reexamine eligible CMs under the objectives of maximizing performance in individual quality characteristics and minimizing variance in overall performance. A feedback mechanism is included to advise ineligible CMs on means of improvement. Finally, we present a case study to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous key components of tool machines possess critical smaller-the-better-type quality characteristics. Under the assumption of normality, a one-to-one mathematical relationship exists between the process quality index and the process yield. Therefore, this paper utilized the index to produce a quality fuzzy evaluation model aimed at the small-the-better-type quality characteristics and adopted the model as a decision-making basis for improvement. First, we derived the 100(1 − α)% confidence region of the process mean and process standard deviation. Next, we obtained the 100(1 − α)% confidence interval of the quality index using the mathematical programming method. Furthermore, a one-tailed fuzzy testing method based on this confidence interval was proposed, aiming to assess the process quality. In addition, enterprises' pursuit of rapid response often results in small sample sizes. Since the evaluation model is built on the basis of the confidence interval, not only can it diminish the risk of wrong judgment due to sampling errors, but it also can enhance the accuracy of evaluations for small sample sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When all of the one-sided specification indices of each quality characteristic reach the requirements of the process quality level, they can ensure that the process capability of the product meets the requirements of the process quality level. This study constructs a fuzzy membership function based on the upper confidence limit of the index, derives the fuzzy critical value, and then labels the fuzzy critical value on the axis of the visualized radar chart as well as connects adjacent critical points to shape a regular polygonal critical region. Next, this study calculates the observed value of the index to estimate and mark it on the axis for forming a visualized fuzzy radar evaluation chart. Obviously, this fuzzy evaluation model not only reduces the testing cost but also makes the quality level quickly meet the requirements of the specifications. Further, the radar chart can reduce the risk of misjudgment attributable to sampling errors and help improve the accuracy of evaluation by a confidence-upper-limit-based fuzzy evaluation model. Therefore, this easy-to-use visualized fuzzy radar evaluation chart is used as an evaluation interface, which has good and convenient management performance to identify and improve critical-to-quality quickly. Improving the quality of the process before the product is completed will also have the advantage of reducing social losses and environmental damage costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quality characteristics with unilateral specifications include the smaller-the-better (STB) and larger-the-better (LTB) quality characteristics. Roundness, verticality, and concentricity are categorized into the STB quality characteristics, while the wire pull and the ball shear of gold wire bonding are categorized into the LTB quality characteristics. In terms of the tolerance, zero and infinity (∞) can be viewed as the target values in line with the STB and LTB quality characteristics, respectively. However, cost and timeliness considerations, or the restrictions of practical technical capabilities in the industry, mean that the process mean is generally far more than 1.5 standard deviations away from the target value. Researchers have accordingly proposed a process quality index conforming to the STB quality characteristics. In this study, we come up with a process quality index conforming to the LTB quality characteristics. We refer to these two types of indices as the unilateral specification process quality indices. These indices and the process yield have a one-to-one mathematical relationship. Besides, the process quality levels can be completely reflected as well. These indices possess unknown parameters. Therefore, sample data are required for calculation. Nevertheless, interval estimates can lower the misjudgment risk resulting from sampling errors more than point estimates can. In addition, considering cost and timeliness in the industry, samples are generally small, which lowers estimation accuracy. In an attempt to increase the accuracy of estimation as well as overcome the uncertainty of measured data, we first derive the confidence interval for unilateral specification process quality indices, and then propose a fuzzy membership function on the basis of the confidence interval to establish the two-tailed fuzzy testing rules for a single indicator. Lastly, we determine whether the process quality has improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence is accumulating about the impacts of plastics on marine life. The prevalence of plastics in seabird nests has been used as an indicator of levels of this pollutant in the ocean. However, the lack of a framework for defining sample sizes and errors associated with estimating the prevalence of plastic in nests prevents researchers from optimising time and reducing impacts of fieldwork. We present a method to determine the confidence intervals for the prevalence of debris in seabird nests and provide, for the first time, information on the prevalence of these items in nests of the Hartlaub's gull Larus hartlaubii , the African penguin Spheniscus demersus , the great white pelican Pelecanus onocrotalus , and the white-breasted cormorant Phalacrocorax lucidus in South Africa. The method, based on observations and resampling simulations and tested here for nests of 12 seabird species from 15 locations worldwide, allows for straightforward hypothesis testing. Appropriate sample sizes can be defined by combining this method with a Bayesian approach. We show that precise estimates of prevalence of debris in nests can be obtained by sampling around 250 nests. Smaller sample sizes can be useful for obtaining rough estimates. For the Hartlaub's gull, the African penguin, the great white pelican, and the white-breasted cormorant, debris were present in 0.75%, 3.00%, 6.41%, and 25.62% of the respective nests. Our approach will help researchers to determine errors associated with the prevalence of debris recorded in seabird nests and to optimise time and costs spent collecting data. It can also be applied to estimate confidence intervals and define sample sizes for assessing prevalence of plastic ingestion by any organism. Image 1 • A method to define errors and sample size for the prevalence of debris in nests. • We use data from 12 seabird species from 15 locations worldwide. • Sampling 250 nests provide precise estimates of prevalence of debris. • Our method can be used also for data on prevalence of debris ingestion. • The method is freely available as an R package. A method for defining confidence intervals and sample size for estimating the prevalence of plastic debris in seabird nests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors express their views on an article on bootstrap-based methods for statistical estimation, that is published in this issue. Topics discussed include correlation coefficients in a linear regression model; estimation of confidence intervals for adaptive bootstrap methods; and normalized estimation error in regression analysis.