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• Most country long-term climate strategies envision reliance on NETs. • Most countries emphasize NETs that enhance natural carbon sinks. • Few countries explicitly envision slowing down short-term mitigation measures. • Countries estimate huge carbon sink potentials despite pervasive uncertainties. • This may set in motion a spiral of delay as uncertainties are sought to be reduced. In order to address the pressing challenge of climate change, countries are now submitting long-term climate strategies to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process. These strategies include within them potential future use of 'negative emissions technologies' (NETs). NETs are interventions that remove carbon from the atmosphere, ranging from large-scale terrestrial carbon sequestration in forests, wetlands and soils, to use of carbon capture and storage technologies. We assess here how NETs are discussed in 29 long-term climate strategies, in order to ascertain the risk that including the promise of future NETs may delay the taking of short-term mitigation actions. Our analysis shows that almost all countries plan to rely on NETs, particularly enhanced use of natural carbon sinks, even as a wide array of challenges and trade-offs in doing so are highlighted. Many strategies call for improved accounting systems and market incentives in realizing future NETs. While no strategy explicitly suggests that NETs can be a substitute for short-term mitigation, most estimate substantial potential for future use of NETs even in the face of acknowledged uncertainties. This, we suggest, may have the consequence of resulting in what we describe here as 'a spiral of delay' characterized by the promise of future NET options juxtaposed with the simultaneous uncertainty around these future options. Our analysis highlights that this inter-connected delaying dynamic may be intrinsic to what we term 'governing-by-aspiration' within global climate politics, wherein the voicing of lofty future ambition risks replacing current action and accountability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Large uncertainties are associated with the future magnitude and stability of the forest carbon sink. • Business-as-usual management practices might already be close-to-optimum for supporting forest carbon uptake and storage. • Increases in management intensity have the potential to lower forest carbon sequestration and stocking capacity. • Forest management practices are as important as climate change to regulatethe carbon sink and stock size. Forest management practices might act as nature-based methods to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere and slow anthropogenic climate change and thus support an EU forest-based climate change mitigation strategy. However, the extent to which diversified management actions could lead to quantitatively important changes in carbon sequestration and stocking capacity at the tree level remains to be thoroughly assessed. To that end, we used a state-of-the-science bio-geochemically based forest growth model to simulate effects of multiple forest management scenarios on net primary productivity (NPP) and potential carbon woody stocks (pCWS) under twenty scenarios of climate change in a suite of observed and virtual forest stands in temperate and boreal European forests. Previous modelling experiments indicated that the capacity of forests to assimilate and store atmospheric CO 2 in woody biomass is already being attained under business-as-usual forest management practices across a range of climate change scenarios. Nevertheless, we find that on the long-term, with increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration and warming, managed forests show both higher productivity capacity and a larger potential pool size of stored carbon than unmanaged forests as long as thinning and tree harvesting are of moderate intensity. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The African Sahel-Sudano-Guinean region is one of the largest water limited environments in the world, thus making it highly vulnerable to climate change. Recent studies have shown vegetation greening in the region, but few have investigated the impact of this greening on carbon and water cycles. We used a combination of earth observation (EO) data and a diagnostic model to evaluate the extent of the vegetation greening and its impacts on carbon sequestration potential (i.e., Gross Primary Productivity-GPP) and the water cycle (i.e., Evapotranspiration-ET and Water Use Efficiency-WUE) from 1982 to 2015. Additionally, we evaluated the influence of key climatic variables (i.e., precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation) on vegetation greening, carbon sequestration potential and the water cycle. Our results showed widespread vegetation greening during the first half of the study period (1982–2000), driven mainly by increase in precipitation. However, the rate of greening reduced or became stagnant during the latter half of the study (2000–2015), but did not revert to pre-greening levels of 1980s, implying a persistent ecosystem change. The vegetation greening and increased precipitation resulted in a ~ 17.95% increase in GPP (from ~3.9 PgC/year in 1982 to ~4.6 PgC/year in 2000) and a ~ 21.28% increase in ET (from ~47 mm/year in 1982 to ~57 mm/year in 2015). The WUE showed an overall reduction, mainly attributed to large increases in ET not matched by similar magnitude of increases in GPP. Currently, there is lack of consensus on the magnitude of the contribution of drylands to the global carbon and water cycle. This study shows that drylands undergoing ecosystem change, coupled with climate change, may in future become important contributors to the global carbon and water cycle. Therefore, they could play a key role in future global warming and climate change mitigation strategies. • Widespread vegetation greening from 1982 to 2000, which stagnates from 2000 to 2015 • Precipitation dynamics was the key driver to vegetation greening. • Greening led to increases in gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration. • Overall reduction in water use efficiency was observed in the region. • Potential changes in future role of drylands in the global carbon and water cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]