Search

Close-range sensors are employed to observe glaciological processes that operate over short timescales (e.g. iceberg calving, glacial lake outburst floods, diurnal surface melting). However, under poor weather conditions optical instruments fail while the operation of radar systems below 17 GHz do not have sufficient angular resolution to map glacier surfaces in detail. This letter reviews the potential of millimetre-wave radar at 94 GHz to obtain high-resolution 3-D measurements of glaciers under most weather conditions. We discuss the theory of 94 GHz radar for glaciology studies, demonstrate its potential to map a glacier calving front and summarise future research priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic plumes pose a hazard to health and society and a particular risk for aviation. Hazard mitigation relies on forecasting plume dispersion within the atmosphere over time. The accuracy of forecasts depends on our understanding of particle dispersion and sedimentation processes, as well as on the accuracy of model input parameters, such as the initial particle size distribution and concentrations of volcanic particles (i.e., volcanic ash) in the atmosphere. However, our understating of these processes and the accurate quantification of input parameters remain the main sources of uncertainty in plume dispersion modeling. It is usually impractical to sample volcanic plumes directly, but particle sedimentation can be constrained in the laboratory. Here, we describe the design of a new experimental apparatus for investigating the dynamics of free-falling volcanic particles. The apparatus can produce a sustained column of falling particles with variable particle concentrations appropriate to a volcanic plume. Controllable experimental parameters include particle size distributions, types, and release rates. A laser-illuminated macrophotography system allows imaging of in-flight particles and their interactions. The mass of landing particles is logged to inform deposition rates. Quantitative measurements include particle morphology characterization, settling velocities, flow rates, and estimation of concentrations. Simultaneous observations of particle interaction processes and settling dynamics through direct control over a wide range of parameters will improve our parameterization of volcanic plume dynamics. Although the apparatus has been specifically designed for volcanological investigations, it can also be used to explore the characteristics of free-falling particle columns occurring in both environmental and industrial settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic ash advisories are produced by specialised forecasters who combine several sources of observational data and volcanic ash dispersion model outputs based on their subjective expertise. These advisories are used by the aviation industry to make decisions about where it is safe to fly. However, both observations and dispersion model simulations are subject to various sources of uncertainties that are not represented in operational forecasts. Quantification and communication of these uncertainties are fundamental for making more informed decisions. Here, we develop a data assimilation method that combines satellite retrievals and volcanic ash transport and dispersion model (VATDM) output, considering uncertainties in both data sources. The methodology is applied to a case study of the 2019 Raikoke eruption. To represent uncertainty in the VATDM output, 1000 simulations are performed by simultaneously perturbing the eruption source parameters, meteorology, and internal model parameters (known as the prior ensemble). The ensemble members are filtered, based on their level of agreement with the ash column loading, and their uncertainty, of the Himawari–8 satellite retrievals, to produce a constrained posterior ensemble. For the Raikoke eruption, filtering the ensemble skews the values of mass eruption rate towards the lower values within the wider parameters ranges initially used in the prior ensemble (mean reduces from 1 to 0.1 Tg h -1). Furthermore, including satellite observations from subsequent times increasingly constrains the posterior ensemble. These results suggest that the prior ensemble leads to an overestimate of both the magnitude and uncertainty in ash column loadings. Based on the prior ensemble, flight operations would have been severely disrupted over the Pacific Ocean. Using the constrained posterior ensemble, the regions where the risk is overestimated are reduced, potentially resulting in fewer flight disruptions. The data assimilation methodology developed in this paper is easily generalisable to other short duration eruptions and to other VATDMs and retrievals of ash from other satellites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deformation style of active volcanoes can provide insight into the structural evolution of their edifices, volcanic activity and associated hazards. The Somma‐Vesuvius volcano is considered one of the most dangerous on the planet due to its proximity to the megacity of Naples (Southern Italy). Thus, understanding its deformation style and corresponding long‐term structural evolution are critical aspects for risk reduction. Although a large amount of data has already been collected about Somma‐Vesuvius, the deformation style affecting its volcanic edifice is still debated. Therefore, we devised an integrated approach to clarify the current state of deformation of this volcano. In particular, we combined analog experiments and finite element (FE) modeling to constrain the current deformation style affecting Somma‐Vesuvius and determine the physical parameters controlling its structural evolution. The analog models were built at a scale of 1:100,000 using sand mixtures (brittle analog) and polydimethylsiloxane (ductile analog). The FE models were implemented by considering a three‐dimensional time‐dependent fluid‐dynamic approach performed at both the analog model scale (1:100,000) and actual volcano scale (1:1). We obtained an FE model and a corresponding analog one that faithfully reproduced the observed deformation velocity patterns revealed by differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) and GPS measurements at Somma‐Vesuvius. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that a combined gravitational spreading‐sagging process governs the deformation style of Somma‐Vesuvius. Plain Language Summary: Volcanic edifices of sufficient mass are capable of deforming substrata under their own weight; this deformation in turn can deform the volcanic edifices themselves. Identifying the deformation style characterizing a volcanic edifice is useful when considering the evolution of its volcanic activity. Vesuvius is considered one of the most dangerous volcanoes on the planet due to its proximity to the megacity of Naples (Southern Italy). Thus, understanding its deformation style and corresponding structural evolution are critical aspects for risk reduction. In order to analyze the deformation process of Vesuvius we used two different modeling techniques: analog modeling and Finite Element numerical modeling. The analog modeling approach allows us to reproduce real processes by using scaled models and media considered analog to natural materials under a physical point of view. The combination of analog and numerical modeling allowed us to constrain the current deformation style affecting Somma‐Vesuvius and to determine the physical parameters controlling its structural evolution. Finally, we compared our results with the observed deformation velocity patterns revealed by Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and GPS measurements at Vesuvius. Overall, the results support the hypothesis that a combined gravitational spreading‐sagging process governs the deformation style of Somma‐Vesuvius. Key Points: Analog and numerical modeling highlighted an active spreading‐sagging process at the Somma‐Vesuvius volcanoA comparison of models with differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) deformation data validated the modeling proceduresThe spreading process affecting the Vesuvius volcano allowed inferring about the near‐future eruption style [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic ash advisories are produced by specialised forecasters who combine several sources of observational data and volcanic ash dispersion model outputs based on their subjective expertise. These advisories are used by the aviation industry to make decisions about where it is safe to fly. However, both observations and dispersion model simulations are subject to various sources of uncertainties that are not represented in operational forecasts. Quantification and communication of these uncertainties are fundamental for making more informed decisions. Here, we develop a data assimilation technique which combines satellite retrievals and volcanic ash transport and dispersion model (VATDM) output, considering uncertainties in both data sources. The methodology is applied to a case study of the 2019 Raikoke eruption. To represent uncertainty in the VATDM output, 1000 simulations are performed by simultaneously perturbing the eruption source parameters, meteorology and internal model parameters (known as the prior ensemble). The ensemble members are filtered, based on their level of agreement with Himawari satellite retrievals of ash column loading, to produce a posterior ensemble that is constrained by the satellite data and its uncertainty. For the Raikoke eruption, filtering the ensemble skews the values of mass eruption rate towards the lower values within the wider parameters ranges initially used in the prior ensemble (mean reduces from 1 Tg h-1 to 0.1 Tg h-1). Furthermore, including satellite observations from subsequent times increasingly constrains the posterior ensemble. These results suggest that the prior ensemble leads to an overestimate of both the magnitude and uncertainty in ash column loadings. Based on the prior ensemble, flight operations would have been severely disrupted over the Pacific Ocean. Using the constrained posterior ensemble, the regions where the risk is overestimated are reduced potentially resulting in fewer flight disruptions. The data assimilation methodology developed in this paper is easily generalisable to other short duration eruptions and to other VATDMs and retrievals of ash from other satellites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of the American Institute for Conservation is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Ingeniería del Agua is the property of Universidad Politecnica de Valencia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)