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India is one of the largest consumers of gold but remains largely unexplored and requires proper attention from investors, regulators and policymakers. Our study aims to uncover the relationship between policy uncertainty and gold prices in India, considering a timeline from 2004 to 2023. Using India EPU and geopolitical uncertainty-related index, the empirical estimation was performed in a time series framework using standard OLS and augmented regression using data from MCX-India and WGC prices. Our statistical investigation signals that policy uncertainty and gold prices in India are positively associated. This implies a higher degree of policy uncertainty and a higher gold price. Monetary policy uncertainty and interest rate changes shows an asymmetric impact on the gold price in India; the effects were more pronounced after 2015. Furthermore, policy uncertainty contains information explaining gold futures prices and has a two-month lag impact. Thus, gold trading in India is sensitive to the economic outlook of the economy and policy uncertainty. Gold imports in India have an adverse effect on gold prices. It is also reported that the INR/USD exchange rate plays a vital role in gold price setting. Hence, the study suggest that India's government should develop a healthy gold ecosystem and gold-policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThis paper evaluates the natural rate of interest (NRI) for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, [Taipei, China], and Thailand and aggregates them using a GDP-weighted average. This paper discusses four key points. Firstly, to estimate the NRI in emerging Asian economies, this paper introduces a Time Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model that integrates exchange rates alongside conventional growth and inflation variables. Secondly, the results show that NRIs in the emerging Asia have been declining in trend since the 1990s. Thirdly, the behavior of the NRI for each economy is not uniform across crises—the Asian Financial Crisis, the Global Financial Crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Fourthly, the findings reveal that the ascertained Asian NRI decreased to the vicinity of 0% during the COVID-19 pandemic period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses how limits to the complexity of statistical models used by market participants can shape asset prices. We consider an economy in which the stochastic process that governs the evolution of economic variables may not have a simple representation, and yet, agents are only capable of entertaining statistical models with a certain level of complexity. As a result, they may end up with a lower-dimensional approximation that does not fully capture the intertemporal complexity of the true data-generating process. We first characterize the implications of the resulting departure from rational expectations and relate the extent of return and forecast-error predictability at various horizons to the complexity of agents' models and the statistical properties of the underlying process. We then apply our framework to study violations of uncovered interest rate parity in foreign exchange markets. We find that constraints on the complexity of agents' models can generate return predictability patterns that are simultaneously consistent with the well-known forward discount and predictability reversal puzzles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines how the independence of monetary policy changes in situations where the interest rate differential between domestic and foreign rates inverts, utilizing the trilemma indices. For analysis, this paper uses the trilemma indices developed by Kim et al. (2017) to analyze the relationship between the monetary policy independence index and the other two trilemma indices, namely the capital account openness index and the exchange rate stability index, across 45 countries from 2002 to 2018. The analysis reveals that the trilemma's validity is contingent. In particular, no statistically significant negative correlation was found between the monetary policy independence index and exchange rate stability index during periods of interest rate differential inversion. A positive correlation emerges between exchange rate stability and the independence of monetary policy, particularly when the inverted interest rate differential exceeds a certain threshold. This situation, where the exchange rate remains stable despite low domestic interest rates, implies that the central bank is effectively managing monetary policy to appropriately respond to economic conditions, which is reflected in the monetary policy independence index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aims to determine the short-term and long-term influence between the variables Inflation, SBI Interest Rate, Rupiah Exchange Rate, Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificate, World Oil Prices, and the Covid-19 Pandemic with the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index. This research uses a quantitative approach with multiple regression analysis techniques to analyze panel data using Eviews 10.0 software. The results of this research show that in the short term the inflation variables, SBI interest rates, Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificates (SBIS), world oil prices, and the Covid-19 pandemic do not have a significant influence on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index. Meanwhile, in the short term, the rupiah exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on ISSI at the specified significance level. On the other hand, in the long term, the variables inflation, rupiah exchange rate, and Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificate (SBIS) do not have a significant influence on ISSI. While the SBI interest rate, world oil prices, and the Covid-19 pandemic have a significant influence on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the global rise in populism over the last decade, there has been an increase in political commentaries (PC) by leaders that criticize their central banks and argue for lower interest rates. We analyse the effects of PCs on exchange rates, bond yields, and the risk premium for six countries that are subject to political pressures. Utilizing a specification with time‐varying parameters, we show that PCs affect the level and the volatility of exchange rates, bond yields and the risk premium in Turkey. The response increases over time. In other countries, there is a significant impact on exchange rate volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study investigates the external influences on Korea’s monetary policy over the period from 1990 to 2020. The focus is on the effects of US interest rates, payments imbalances and exchange rate changes on Korean monetary policy. The estimation of the Taylor rule measures the effects on Korean interest rates and the estimation of sterilization/ offset coefficients measures the effects on the domestic money supply and monetary base. This study measures the sterilization/offset equations and compares the results with the ones from Koo (2004) which examines the Taylor rule study. The empirical tests of both studies reveal two key findings: (1) Korean monetary policy has been influenced by monetary developments in the US, but it still has had a good deal of independence. (2) The exchange rate plays a crucial role for the BOK in achieving independent monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We quantify the impact of risk‐based and nonrisk‐based intermediary constraints (IC) on the term structure of covered interest rate parity (CIP) violations. Using a stochastic discount factor (SDF) inferred from interest rate swaps, we value currency derivatives. The wedge between model‐implied and observed derivative prices reflects the impact of nonrisk‐based IC because our SDF incorporates risk‐based IC. There is no wedge at short horizons, while the wedge accounts for 40% of long‐term CIP violations. Consistent with IC theory, the wedge correlates with the shadow cost of intermediary capital, and the SDF‐implied interest rate is a weighted average of collateralized and uncollateralized interest rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global market for halal products is now developing at an extremely fast pace. Every year, there is a growing need for halal items. The reality is that Indonesia, the largest Muslim nation, is still under government scrutiny due to its poor exports of halal goods to the global halal market and its significant lag behind non-Muslim nations. This study used a quantitative methodology and multiple linear regression analysis to assess secondary data that was obtained via the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia's official websites. According to the partial research findings, the Rupiah exchange rate (X2) and the inflation variable (X1) have a favorable impact on Indonesia's export of halal items (Y) from 2018 to 2022; however, interest rates (X3) have a negative impact. Indonesia's halal product exports were impacted concurrently in 2018-2022 by the following variables: interest rates (X3), the Rupiah exchange rate (X2), and the inflation variable (X1). In terms of Islamic economics, export is allowed since it is a type of commerce that involves the purchase and sale of products and services. All transactions involving these kinds of transactions must adhere to Islamic law, one of which concerns the halalness of the goods and services being delivered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the long-run relationship between the exchange rate, interest rate, stock prices and output. The results demonstrate that a single restricted relationship is accepted when a structural break is incorporated into the cointegrating vector. Compared with the hypothesis tests on the single restricted relationship, the hypothetical structure comprising multiple relationships in the cointegrating vector is generally accepted in most countries, confirming the interaction between the relationships in the system. Our findings regarding the real exchange rate and stock price differentials appear to contradict the uncovered equity returns parity condition, whereas the relationship between the real exchange rate and interest rate differentials is consistent with the flexible price approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the response of aggregate demand (AD) components and inflation to monetary policy (MP) shocks in the Tunisian context where studies on this issue are rare. By estimating SVAR models on historical data ending in 2021, we found that: i) The Tunisian Central Bank's (TCB) efforts to control inflation through interest rate tightening end up significantly slowing down private investment and consumption, while inflation response is not enough to mitigate the recently exacerbated inflationary trend; ii) Such efforts are hampered, if not outweighed, by the "pass-through" effect associated with exchange-rate continued depreciation; iii) The interest rate is Granger-caused by the exchange rate rather than the inflation rate, suggesting that de jure and de facto objectives of the TCB are divergent; and iv) The continued exchange rate depreciation alone is not enough to address the structural trade deficit. In light of these findings, we suggest that i) The transition from a discretionary MP to a rule-based inflation-targeting MP and with a well-defined role for the exchange rate, would help TCB gain credibility and improve efficiency of its MP; and ii) Tunisian policymakers should also consider consolidating MP in achieving its price stabilization objective particularly through implementing "supply-side policy" actions aiming at promoting economic growth and addressing unsustainable fiscal and external imbalances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study advances the understanding of the Preferred Habitat Model's capacity to shed light on the inter-market transfer of mean returns and the diffusion of price volatility in Pakistani investment markets. It examines the extent to which returns in one market exert a systematic influence on returns across others under the potential sway of interest rate policy shifts, USD exchange rate volatility, and domestic inflation trends. Employing a methodological arsenal that includes the GARCH process, enhanced by Dynamic Conditional Correlations (DCC), as well as the Markov Switching Model, this research assesses the propagation of mean returns and volatility across markets. The analysis uncovers significant linkages between monetary policy and stock market indices, underscoring the profound impact of monetary policy on cross-market performance transmission. These insights are pivotal for regulators overseeing the nuanced interaction between monetary policy and market performance. They are crucial for local and international investors interested in developing economies, especially in Pakistan's markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The document provides information on the Delphi method and its application in scientific research. It explains that the Delphi method is a qualitative technique used to obtain consensus from a group of experts on a specific problem. The method has been used in various fields such as defense, health, tourism, education, and business. The document also briefly discusses the methodological foundations of Delphi, including the selection and composition of the panel of experts, the iterative process in rounds, and criteria for consensus and stability. Additionally, the document provides data on economic and financial indicators in Mexico, such as the National Consumer Price Index, the Exchange rate, the IPC (Mexican Stock Exchange), and interest rates and investment units. The data spans from 2013 to 2024 and can be useful for researchers studying the economic situation in Mexico. The document also references various sources that discuss the Delphi method and its applications in different fields. [Extracted from the article]

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Purpose: The discussion on international migration has become a significant part of globalization and a topical issue in international relations, especially in developing economies which mostly relies on migrant remittances. The purpose of the study is to examine whether financial market development (equity market development and banking sector development) really drives migrant remittance flow in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Design/methodology/approach: The study employs the dynamic heterogeneous panel data approach-the pool mean group (PMG) and the mean group (MG) techniques in analyzing the model based on data obtained from 27 SSA countries covering the period 2000–2020. Findings: The findings of the study revealed that financial market development (equity market development and banking sector development) is a key driver of migrant remittances flows in the SSA region. In addition, the study revealed that the following macroeconomic variables such as real interest rate, unemployment rate, global growth, emigration, and economic growth are also determinants of migrant remittances flows in the SSA region. Originality/value: The reviewed empirical literature revealed that several studies documents that the macroeconomic determinants of migrant remittances include inflation, GDP, interest rate, exchange rate, population growth, financial sector development and unemployment rate. Most of these studies fail to capture both equity market development and robust banking sector development (financial market development) as critical drivers of migrant remittances flow in SSA. Also, this study uses a robust measure of equity market development and banking sector development, unlike previous studies. Peer review: The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-05-2023-0361 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article "Global Spillovers from Fed Hikes and a Strong Dollar: The Risk Channel" explores how US monetary policy and a strong US dollar impact emerging markets (EMs) and advanced economies (AEs). The study finds that tighter US monetary policy increases risk in EMs, but not in AEs. It also highlights that the effects of a strong dollar differ between EMs and AEs, with UIP premia decreasing in EMs and increasing in AEs. The article suggests that policymakers should be cautious when interpreting these shocks, particularly for EMs, as the dollar shock may reflect a real shock that requires external adjustment rather than policy intervention. The analysis is based on data from 59 countries, including 42 EMs, from 1990 to 2019. [Extracted from the article]

We analyse how financial market analysts' expectations in the Czech National Bank's Financial Market Inflation Expectations survey perform relative to the random-walk forecast when it comes to predicting five financial variables. Using data from 2001 to 2022, our results indicate that the analysts are able to significantly outperform the random-walk forecast in terms of forecast precision for the repo rate and Prague Interbank Offered Rate at the one-month forecasting horizon. For the five- and ten-year interest rate swap rates, the random walk significantly outperforms the analysts at both the one-month and one-year forecasting horizons. For the CZK/EUR exchange rate, the random-walk forecast has a lower root mean squared forecast error than that of the analysts' forecast at the one-month horizon whereas at the one-year horizon the opposite is found; however, none of these differences are statistically significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research is intended to determine factors affecting Investors at Pakistan Stock exchange, and for this purpose four macroeconomic variables; interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and FDI were selected as predictors and return of KSE 100 was included as a dependent variable. Meanwhile, the time frame of the study was from January 2001 to December 2015 and the frequency of the data was monthly. The preliminary testing and diagnostic analysis suggested towards Johansen Cointegration which further suggested VECM and Granger causality. Empirical findings of the study suggest that there are cointegration equations within the variables, implying that variables can be used to perform estimation and prediction of another variable. Meanwhile, VECM model reveals no significant effect of the macroeconomic variables on the stock market in long-run at lag 1; but at lag 2 interest rate and FDI shows a negative and significant effect on the KSE 100 returns. In addition to this, granger causality also shows no short-run bi-directional interrelation of macroeconomic variables with KSE 100 returns. Therefore, it is concluded that in Pakistan macroeconomic variables does not influence investor's behaviors and do not affect investing trend in KSE 100 index. Meanwhile, implications for policymakers, investors, regulatory authorities, government and for researcher have also been discussed in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used the Markov switching regression model to establish a relationship between the conditional stock market returns and macroeconomic volatilities. Monthly data from thirteen (13) African stock markets and macroeconomic variables (exchange rate, inflation, interest rate, money supply, and crude oil price) from 2003 to 2022 were employed. We confirmed the existence of two distinct regimes: An economic expansion or a "tranquil" state with less volatility and an economic decline or a "crisis" state with high volatility. Our findings indicated that macroeconomic variables significantly affect both expansion and crisis periods. However, the estimated coefficients were more significant in a tranquil than in a crisis state. The findings of the study were consistent with macroeconomic theory and pointed out policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences is the property of Republic of Iraq Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MOHESR) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article states that the Federal Reserve is considering keeping interest rates high for a longer period of time due to concerns about inflation and the labor market. Factors such as tightening financial market conditions and rising oil prices could also delay rate cuts. The article mentions an increase in the forecast for GDP growth this year, but notes signs of economic softening in some states. The focus of the Federal Reserve is on inflation and the composition of job growth, with an expected slight increase in the unemployment rate. This information is valuable for library patrons researching employment trends and forecasts. [Extracted from the article]

This research investigates the relationship between exchange rates and economic growth in Nigeria during the period from 1981 to 2019. The research conducted an analysis of Nigerian data using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique and identified that Exchange Rates have a favourable impact on Economic Growth. This paper affirmed the regression's validity with stationary residuals and found no long-term equilibrium using Bound Cointegration. The ARDL modelling revealed short-term connections between exchange rates and economic growth. Positive correlations were observed between exchange rates, GDP per capita growth, interest rates, and total exports, while negative relationships were noted with inflation and total imports, highlighting the importance of exchange rate stability in sustaining economic growth. This research provides a novel viewpoint on the connection between exchange rates and economic growth in Nigeria during the period from 1981 to 2019. It uncovers that more than 98% of the fluctuations in exchange rates can be accounted for by the included variables. The noteworthy discovery of the absence of a long-term equilibrium relationship within the specified time frame sets this study apart. Furthermore, it underscores the crucial role of exchange rate stability in promoting enduring economic growth, emphasising the necessity for well-designed policies that consider the intricate economic landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article seeks to add a new element to the 5‐decade debate over the theory of Optimal Currency Area. In the euro area, the accumulation of economic imbalances caused by the loss of the automatic adjustment functions of the exchange rate have served as a structural background to limit its self‐sustaining resilience during financial shocks. To enhance the stability of Optimal Currency Area (OCA) through the revitalization of those functions, this article argues that if the euro area had adopted some form of fiscal risk‐sharing mechanisms, which could have generated a similar economic effect as if they had maintained a flexible F/X system as that which had existed in pre‐euro days, the fiscal crisis hypothetically could have been more easily overcome within a shorter period with less financial support. The result suggests that if 'Adjustment Fund for Foreign Exchange rate Loss (AFFEL)', originally devised within these pages, had operated, the interest rates in crisis‐hit members could have been significantly lower than actual levels during the crisis, while safely maintaining the euro system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This empirical study investigates Sierra Leone's monetary policy transmission channels using a VAR model from 2011Q1 to 2021Q4, emphasising the interest rate, exchange rate, and credit channels. Rigorous pre-estimation tests and variable transformations were applied to enhance result robustness and credibility. The research evaluates the impact of recent monetary policy and financial sector reforms in Sierra Leone and unveils insights into the dynamics of each of the three transmission channels. Notably, the interest rate channel revealed a delayed and transitory impact of policy rate changes on inflation and economic activity. The exchange rate channel underscored the importance of exchange rate stability in managing inflation, particularly in an importdependent economy. Furthermore, the credit channel highlighted the challenges of private sector credit expansion amidst substantial government borrowing, urging a balanced approach. Overall, the study contributes to a better understanding of Sierra Leone's monetary policy transmission channels, emphasizing the positive influence of recent institutional, operational, and legal reforms adopted by the Bank of Sierra Leone. More precisely, it presents the need to strengthen the interest rate, credit and exchange rate channels for more effective policy transmission. A key policy recommendation is for the Bank of Sierra Leone to continue its reform agenda, with a focus on enhancing these channels to better achieve its policy objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The core objective of this article is to explore the viability of uncovered interest parity and to reconnoiter major determinants of domestic interest rates of the Pakistan and China economies. It is imperative to study the interest rate parity that assistances to comprehend that exactly how exchange rate and domestic interest rate influence foreign interest rate of two economies in emerging trends in international trade. The World Development Indicators is main source of data gathering, and it ranges from 1980 to 2023 for the analysis of both models. This study considers two models, Engle–Granger causality has been applied in Model 1, to analyze the uncovered interest parity, and findings indicate that the exchange rate of each country has no effect on the interest rate of the other country. However, Model 2 investigates the main determinants of domestic interest rate and their long-run associations for Pakistan and China. To capture the long-run association, ARDL estimation technique has been deployed, and findings show the long-run relations and co-integration among the policy variables of both countries. In Pakistan, consumer price index and exchange rate hold positive linking with the domestic interest rate; however, output level is adversely correlated. The error correction term is 91%, confirming the rapidity of equilibrium adjustment when a shock occurs. Regarding the Chinese economy, consumer price index and exchange rate have a negative impact on China domestic interest rate. The results of the error correction model indicate an 80% speed of convergence in the long run. This study suggests that improvement in productivity and exchange rate may assist both economies to experience steady exchange rate and interest rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Employment is wage-constrained and real depreciation raises exports. • Neither the real exchange rate nor exports affect domestic sales. • There is a lack of transmission from investment to growth. • Volatility effects are weak for exports and inconsistent for investment. • There is little evidence of an interest rate effect for investment. This paper evaluates South African manufacturing performance over 25 years. It reports the evolution of five basic variables: employment, mark-ups, exports, domestic sales, and investment, using an aggregated sample of firms from a reliable business database. The approach differs from other economic models by the complementary use of management perceptions in estimated equations. The results reinforce some previous findings; for example, wage pressure tends to constrain domestic sales while the relative wage incentivizes capital investment. The exchange rate matters for exports and investment is constrained by skill shortages. Other findings add evidence to contested issues such as the importance of the interest rate level for investment and exchange rate stability for export growth. Relationships between key variables can help to identify growth constraints and the potential for manufacturing jobs. In particular, the lack of transmission from exports to employment or to domestic sales and the response of the mark-up to investment suggest institutional failures in coordinating market activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the factors influencing food inflation in Turkey, employing both endogenous and exogenous models and integrating major literature findings. Utilizing monthly data from February 2007 to November 2023, standardized for analysis, it explores the relationship between food inflation and various determinants through classical and Bayesian methods. The analysis reveals that increases in the real effective exchange rate, money supply (M1), Turkish and Federal Reserve interest rates, and the food and beverage price index contribute to rising food inflation. Conversely, higher oil prices have a statistically significant negative effect on food inflation. The most influential variables, determined by their inclusion probabilities in the model, are the money supply, Federal Reserve interest rate, real effective exchange rate, and Turkish interest rate. These findings underscore their importance in understanding and analyzing changes in Turkey's food inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper econometrically models the dynamics of Indian rupee (INR) swap yields based on key macroeconomic factors using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach. It examines whether the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on long-term INR swap yields after controlling for other factors, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the logarithm of the equity price index, and the logarithm of the INR exchange rate. The estimated models show that the short-term interest rate has an important influence on swap yields. This implies that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can sway borrowing and lending rates not just on Indian government bonds but also INR-denominated private-market financial instruments, such as swaps and swaptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper takes stock of the literature on the monetary transmission mechanism in currency boards and analyzes the process of monetary transmission in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The transmission of monetary signals through the economy is based on the automatic adjustment mechanism of the currency board. Three channels of monetary transmission are discussed in this paper: the interest rate channel, the narrow credit channel, and the exchange rate channel. The empirical analysis shows how exogenous monetary shocks are transmitted through different channels and how long it takes for the automatic adjustment mechanism to restore equilibrium in the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the impact of macroeconomic factors on co-movement in the foreign exchange rate markets. Data of foreign exchange rates from 24 merging markets is used to this end along with a dynamic spatial Durbin model as to examine spatial dependencies among markets. Our empirical findings show no evidence that cultural ties exert a role in spreading macroeconomic shocks in the exchange rate of a country to the exchange rates of other countries. Moreover, we show that economic closeness through foreign direct investment (FDI) and international bilateral trade is the most prominent channel in spreading macroeconomic shocks and spatial effects in emerging markets through the foreign exchange rates. In addition, geographical proximity reinforces the interdependence relationship of emerging markets. Our findings show that the co-movement of foreign exchange rate markets across the selected emerging markets is positively influenced by their gross domestic product (GDP) and interest rate differential and negatively affected by the terms of trade and remittance. In addition, we reveal that terms of trade, the inflation differential, and remittance are the most prominent fundamental factors affecting foreign exchange rate movements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on food security in Nigeria, utilizing annual time series data from 1970 to 2021. The study used descriptive statistics, unit root tests, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and its associated Bounds tests to analyze the data. The analysis reveals that adult population, environmental degradation, exchange rate uncertainty (EXRU), financial deepening, food security (FS), government expenditure in agriculture uncertainty (GEAU), inflation, and interest rate uncertainty (INRU) exhibit positive mean values over the period, with varying degrees of volatility. Cointegration tests indicate a long-term relationship between EPU variables (GEAU, INRU, and EXRU) and food security. The study finds that cumulative positive and negative EPU variables have significant effects on food security in the short run. Specifically, negative GEAU, positive INRU, positive and negative EXRU have significant effects in the short run. In the long run, negative GEAU, positive and negative EXRU have significant effects on food security. Additionally, the research highlights asymmetric effects, showing that the influence of GEAU and EXRU on food security differs in the short- and long-run. The study underscores the importance of increased government expenditure on agriculture, control of exchange rate and interest rate uncertainty, and the reduction in economic policy uncertainty to mitigate risks in the agricultural sector and enhance food security. Recommendations include strategies to stabilize exchange rates to safeguard food supply and overall food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of International Journal of Economics, Business & Politics (UEIP) is the property of International Journal of Economics, Business & Politics and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The UK's economic outlook is positive, with GDP growth forecasted to be 1.1% in 2024 and 2% in 2025. The new government, led by the opposition Labour party, is expected to implement the planned fiscal consolidation, which will have a significant impact on the pace of economic recovery. The Monetary Policy Committee is considering a rate cut in August, with further cuts expected in November. The housing market is expected to have a soft landing, and fiscal policy will tighten, although the impact of the new measures is smaller than the previous government's plans. The government's plans for planning system reform may provide a boost to economic growth. [Extracted from the article]

This study shows that demand for money is a function not only of interest rate, real exchange rate, and personal consumption but also of fiscal variables like deficit, debt, and foreign-financed debt. It is stable over the short and long run. This study also covers the investigation of policy invariance of money demand, an important issue ignored so far in the existing literature on the demand for money in the United States. It was found that the behavior of agents in the money market changes as the real exchange rate, consumption, and interest rate change. Namely, agents in the money market are forward-looking, and their expectations are formed rationally. This also means that even though the parameters of money demand are stable, according to the stability test results, they can be unstable, as agents adapt their behavior based on any change in the exchange rate, consumption, and/or interest rate. In other words, the contemporaneous real exchange and interest rate variables are not superexogenous in demand for M1, and the contemporaneous consumption is not superexogenous in demand for M2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods agreement the international monetary system has operated based on floating exchange rate arrangements and free capital mobility. A most significant subsequent improvement has been the process of European monetary integration, from the institution of the European Monetary System to the Euro currency. The relationships between the short-term interest rates of European Union (EU) countries and the United States suggest, that in the post-Bretton Woods period the US dollar has held an important anchor currency role, while EU countries acquired considerable monetary policy independence. Further, the stronger relationships between the short-term interest rates of EU countries and Germany may be viewed as a consequence of monetary unification. The econometric evidence provides important insights for the period following the adoption of the Euro, when European economies have in many instances been subject to heterogeneous shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a semiparametric GARCH-in-Mean copula model to examine the volatility dynamics and tail dependence between cryptocurrency markets and financial markets. We do not find any statistically significant tail dependence between the financial and cryptocurrency markets, but we find lower tail dependence between Bitcoin and stock returns. There is lower tail dependence among Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin, and the lower tail dependence between Ethereum and Litecoin returns is the strongest. The GARCH-in-Mean model shows that the uncertainty effect on cryptocurrency returns is not statistically significant, while uncertainty has a negative and statistically significant effect on Bitcoin returns. The fact that there is no tail dependence between cryptocurrency and the interest rate or the effective exchange rate of U.S. dollar suggests that cryptocurrency could offer safe haven, defined as an asset that is uncorrelated with stocks and bonds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sri Lanka's monetary policy has evolved differently during and after a three-decade-long ethnic conflict. This paper empirically investigates effects of monetary policy shocks on Sri Lankan economy with particular focus on the strength of credit and exchange rate channels using a VAR model for 2003–2019 period. We find that: (i) monetary policy shocks have a significant and persistent impact on key macroeconomic variables even though several puzzling results emerge; (ii) the effects of monetary policy shocks are significant and more persistent in the post-conflict period than in the conflict period; (iii) a tight monetary policy effectively contains inflation in the post-conflict period; and (iv) interest rate and exchange rate channels play a dominant role while the credit channel responds with some lags in the post-conflict period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main goal of this work is to develop an empirical investigation on the occurrence of a sanitary crisis with data of cases and deaths of Covid-19, and their possible impact on the exchange rate volatility for the BRICS with daily data from February 20, 2020, to February 28, 2022, using ARDL, FMOLS and DOLS models. The results indicate that increases in the number of confirmed cases and deaths are associated with lower levels of exchange rate volatility, indicating that monetary and fiscal policies were inefficient in the context of a generalized health crisis in directing capital flows, and since the Covid-19 crisis is a global one, during the period of analysis there was a relative exchange rate stability, in other words, a lower exchange rate volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hundredth anniversary of Paolo Sylos Labini's birth seems an excellent opportunity to celebrate his contribution, particularly in light of the European post-COVID-19 extraordinary measures. These revived debates around the relationship between state and market, structural inequalities within Italy, and austerity (Papadimitriu et al. 2020; Palma 2020; Variato et al. 2020; Canelli et al. 2021). Inspired by a reflection on Sylos Labini's assessment of the Italian increasing debt/low-investment/low-growth decline, our rationale is the need to re-focus away from debt towards investment and growth. We compare this alternative focus to the theories underpinning austerity, including the Ricardian equivalence, the crowding-out argument, and the bond vigilantes hypothesis. Our work relies on wide-ranging data analysis and concentrates on three econometric models: a vector error correction model to analyse the relationship between public debt and GDP in the long-run; a vector auto-regression model, which analyses the relationship between GDP and the components of debt, interest rates spread, and exchange rate in the short-run; and an additional vector auto-regression model to examine the primary balance components, including fiscal spending and revenues. We find that Sylos Labini's warnings and his view of the relation between economic development and civil development are no less relevant today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Change in stock prices and development of the market vary depending on decisions made by investors. Decisions made by investors are determined by corporate performance, the country's economic situation, political developments and changes in macroeconomic factors. In this study, the relationship between stock prices of airlines and macroeconomic variables was analyzed. To accomplish this, daily macroeconomic data of 14 airlines covering the years 2009-2018 were analyzed by Toda Yomamato and Hatemi-J asymmetric causality tests, and macroeconomic factors (Brent oil price, dollar exchange rate and interest rate) determining stock prices were identified. According to the results of the Toda and Yomamato causality test, it was found that there was a significant relationship among variables of the dollar exchange rate, the price of oil and stock prices of airlines. Except for one airline, there was no significant relationship between interest rate and stock price. According to the results of the Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test, it was found that there were significant relationships among variables of the dollar exchange rate, oil price, interest rate, and airline stock prices. In light of these findings, innovation and adoption of alternative fuel technology by the aviation industry and airlines can be a successful alternative to oil price risk. Results on exchange rate and interest rate changes indicate that airlines and related governments should focus on policies that increase growth of the aviation industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of the study is to evaluate the main determinants of the Colombian gross portfolio inflows and outflows from non-resident and resident investors and to study the role of the interest rate of the domestic monetary policy. The conceptual framework is the standard portfolio model augmented with variables that measure push and pull factors and macroeconomic surprises. The regression model is an autoregressive vector with exogenous variables or VAR-X and the information is of monthly frequency for the period 2011 to 2020. The main results indicate that the policy interest rate does not turn out to be a statistically significant determinant of gross portfolio flows from non-resident and resident investors with the statistics used and during the analyzed period. In addition, the estimates show important differences in the responses to other domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks. Finally, there seems to be to some degree a substitution between portfolio capital outflows from non-residents and capital inflows from residents. This means that the movements of some investors cushion the exchange rate, balance of payments, and probably financial and macroeconomic effects of the others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research seeks to examine how the yields of Indonesian government bonds are influenced by various factors, including the BI interest rate, inflation, foreign exchange reserves, IHSG, and exchange rates. The investigation utilizes monthly time series data spanning from 2019 to 2022, focusing on the benchmark series of 10-year SUN. Data analysis is carried out using Eviews 13, and the GARCH-M (1,1) analytical method is employed. The research findings reveal that the BI interest rate has a notably positive and significant effect on bond yields. In contrast, inflation does not exhibit a significant impact on bond yields. Foreign exchange reserves are found to have a considerable negative impact on bond yields. IHSG, on the other hand, does not demonstrate a significant influence on bond yields. Lastly, exchange rates are identified as having a meaningful positive impact on bond yields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aims to determine the effect of the global COVID-19 pandemic on the exchange rate, where the microstructure approach will be used, which uses long and short positions in the futures market. Weekly data will be available during the period 2010-2023. A negative relationship has been found between the exchange rate and the net positions, as well as a positive relationship between the exchange rate and the interest rate differential between Mexico and the United States, as indicates the existing literature. The main finding has been the presence of structural change in the relationship due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, it is concluded that the microstructure approach is an adequate model to explain exchange rate fluctuations in the short-term, where the relationship has suffered a structural change due to the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the development of the banking sector in the world and having an important share in the financial system, the importance of bank returns is increasing. In the banking sector, stocks are also among the financial assets preferred by investors. The aim of this study is to investigate the long-term relationship between banking indices of BRICS and MINT countries with similar macroeconomic indicators, exchange rates and selected macroeconomic indicators by using ARDL and NARDL methods. In order to achieve this aim, monthly data of the variables for the January 2013 - May 2023 periods were used. According to the results obtained from the ARDL and NARDL methods, it has been determined that there is a long-term relationship between the variables in Turkey, Brazil, India and Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to study the safe haven attribute of the Japanese yen under domestic and U.S. economic and policy uncertainty (EPU). Because of the existence of structural changes, a bootstrap rolling window subsample causality test is used to enhance the credibility of the results. The empirical results confirm that the exchange rate returns (RER) and Japanese EPU are correlated in specific periods when major economic or political events occur. In most crisis periods, the Japanese EPU has positive effects on RER, and the yen appreciates when the EPU is increasing. In addition, the RER of the yen and U.S. EPU are both negatively and positively connected. This finding confirms the hedging function of the yen in certain periods. The reason for this relationship is that Japan's low interest rates make the yen the primary funding currency in speculative carrying trade strategies, and thus, it tends to appreciate during crisis periods regardless of the origins of the EPU shocks. Therefore, the yen can be held as a safe haven currency unless the government intervenes artificially. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- This study aims to investigate the influence of macroeconomic factors, including economic growth, inflation, the rupiah exchange rate, and interest rates, as well as corporate financial performance indicators such as leverage and profitability, on the stock returns of Indonesian Property and Real Estate Sub-Sector companies. Method -- The research data consists of annual data obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, the Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics, and Bank Indonesia for the period from 2017 to 2021. The research population comprises 36 Property and Real Estate companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Out of these, 28 companies meet the sample requirements. The analysis employs panel data regression to examine the data. Result -- The results indicate that inflation and exchange rates have a negative and statistically significant impact on stock returns. On the other hand, economic growth, interest rates, return on equity, and the debt-to-equity ratio exhibit a positive influence on stock returns, although these effects are not statistically significant. Contribution -- This study's distinctive contribution is its focused analysis of the Property and Real Estate Sub-Sector in Indonesia. It stands out by exploring the intricate relationship between macroeconomic factors and financial performance variables concerning the stock returns of companies within this sub-sector. This nuanced approach provides valuable insights into a specific industry within the Indonesian market, shedding light on previously unexplored dynamics and contributing to a deeper understanding of how these factors affect stock returns in this context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent multidimensional crisis has harmed the global economy because countries are currently integrated. In this study, we examine the spillover effect of the United States (US) interest rate on the output gap of ASEAN+3 countries using the dynamic spatial Durbin model from 2010 to 2020. After controlling for various institutional variables, this analysis further examines the effect of the exchange rate and the COVID-19 pandemic on the output gap. This model captures the spatial interactions and short- and long-term effects of interest rate monetary policies. The findings indicate a negative spillover effect of the US central bank interest rate on ASEAN+3 countries' output gap. The result had significant direct and indirect short-term effects. Additionally, exchange rates negatively affect the output gap. The output gap decreased because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study is expected to be useful for monetary authorities in developing the best monetary policy for economic recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing nations have the task of effectively managing their external debt. The government is urged to comprehend the decisive component in managing its external debt, despite the varying viewpoints among economists. In addition, the world sees the need for institutional quality to optimize its economic policy. Institutional quality shows accountability, stability, effectiveness, quality, law, and trust. Our research examines the determinant factors of external debt and discusses the policy to manage external debt. We regress the inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate, trade openness, and institutional quality on external debt. This study also uses moderated regression analysis to examine the interaction between institutional quality and macroeconomic indicators on external debt. We selected 52 samples from five ASEAN developing countries from 2008 to 2019. The first study found that the inflation rate, interest rate, and institutional quality have a negative impact on external debt, while the exchange rate and trade openness have a positive impact on external debt. Next, we were surprised that institutional quality could not moderate the relationship between the inflation rate, exchange rate, and interest rate on external debt. Further, it only moderated the relationship between trade openness and external debt. In the end, we discuss the external debt determinants from the selected ASEAN developing countries with the theories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the use of daily panel data for industrial countries, we study the essentialness of liquidity premiums and interest rate differentials in predicting nominal exchange rates at short horizons. We find that information about higher‐order moments of exchange rates helps predict nominal exchange rates. Before the global financial crisis, interest rate differentials were crucial for forecasting exchange rates. Interest rate differentials and liquidity premia provide additional information for predicting nominal exchange rates in the post‐crisis period even if we have controlled for latent fundamental exchange rates. Moreover, the economic significance analysis results echo those of the statistical significance analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]