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Silicic volcanic eruptions commonly begin with the explosive ejection of pyroclastic material, before transitioning to gentler effusion-dominated activity. Well-exposed dissected silicic systems are scarce and poorly studied, hindering the advances in our understanding of the explosive–effusive transition needed to improve interpretations of volcanic unrest and hazard forecasting. The Mule Creek vent (New Mexico, USA) is a dissected silicic conduit that records the processes controlling conduit formation and evolution, and the role tuffisites (fractures filled with variably welded pyroclasts) play in conduit dynamics. Here, we use decimeter-scale photo-mapping of lithostratigraphic units and thin section analysis to differentiate and interpret three dominant emplacement styles during vent evolution. First, there was repeated deposition and erosion of pyroclastic material at the conduit walls, recorded by erosive surfaces in pyroclastic breccia and agglomerates at the conduit margins. Second, sub-vertical domains of dense melt-dominated magma were emplaced and preserved as glass-dominated vitrophyre and brecciated vitrophyre, with the textural hallmarks of assembly from welding of pyroclasts. Finally, the sub-horizontal fracturing of previously deposited lithologies produced laterally cross-cutting tuffisites. The vent deposits track the widening and then narrowing of the conduit through time and reflect progressive insulation and generally higher temperatures towards the conduit center as pyroclasts accumulate. Welding of pyroclastic fill and the formation of dense vitrophyres towards the conduit center lowers deposit porosity and effective wall permeability. This drives localized gas pressure increases and results in gas-driven fracturing, generating tuffisites, which act as transient outgassing pathways. The structure of the Mule Creek vent records an explosive–effusive transition, constraining the processes controlling conduit evolution and aiding our interpretation of volcanic unrest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic ash advisories are produced by specialised forecasters who combine several sources of observational data and volcanic ash dispersion model outputs based on their subjective expertise. These advisories are used by the aviation industry to make decisions about where it is safe to fly. However, both observations and dispersion model simulations are subject to various sources of uncertainties that are not represented in operational forecasts. Quantification and communication of these uncertainties are fundamental for making more informed decisions. Here, we develop a data assimilation method that combines satellite retrievals and volcanic ash transport and dispersion model (VATDM) output, considering uncertainties in both data sources. The methodology is applied to a case study of the 2019 Raikoke eruption. To represent uncertainty in the VATDM output, 1000 simulations are performed by simultaneously perturbing the eruption source parameters, meteorology, and internal model parameters (known as the prior ensemble). The ensemble members are filtered, based on their level of agreement with the ash column loading, and their uncertainty, of the Himawari–8 satellite retrievals, to produce a constrained posterior ensemble. For the Raikoke eruption, filtering the ensemble skews the values of mass eruption rate towards the lower values within the wider parameters ranges initially used in the prior ensemble (mean reduces from 1 to 0.1 Tg h -1). Furthermore, including satellite observations from subsequent times increasingly constrains the posterior ensemble. These results suggest that the prior ensemble leads to an overestimate of both the magnitude and uncertainty in ash column loadings. Based on the prior ensemble, flight operations would have been severely disrupted over the Pacific Ocean. Using the constrained posterior ensemble, the regions where the risk is overestimated are reduced, potentially resulting in fewer flight disruptions. The data assimilation methodology developed in this paper is easily generalisable to other short duration eruptions and to other VATDMs and retrievals of ash from other satellites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]