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Keywords Cash; Currency suppression; Monetary policy; Demonetization Abstract We quantify the welfare effects of cash suppression policies within a general equilibrium model where cash reduces transactions costs and aids tax evasion in underground markets. In the model, currency suppression increases transactions costs and raises effective tax rates, but shifts resources out of costly underground markets and relaxes the government budget. When coupled with a reduction in distortionary taxes on consumption or factor inputs to ensure budget neutrality, cash suppression policies increase welfare in our baseline representative agent model. In a model with individual heterogeneity in cash use, suppression increases welfare for all, but by less for cash-intensive users. Author Affiliation: (a) Claremont McKenna College, United States of America (b) University of Georgia, United States of America (c) Colby College, United States of America * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 10 July 2020; Revised 25 May 2021; Accepted 25 May 2021 (footnote)[white star] We are grateful to Eric Sims and Julie Smith for helpful comments and seminar participants at the Banco Central del Uruguay, Bates College, Bowdoin College, Colgate University, dECON-Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, UDELAR, University of Kentucky, Xavier University and participants at the 2018 Jornadas Anuales de Economía del Banco Central del Uruguay and the 2019 Midwest Macroeconomics Conference. Lastrapes acknowledges financial support from the University of Georgia's Bonbright Center for the Study of Regulation while working on this paper. The usual disclaimer applies. Byline: Julio Garín [jgarin@cmc.edu] (a), William D. Lastrapes [last@uga.edu] (b,*), Robert Lester [rblester@colby.edu] (c)

Several studies have used various datasets and methodologies to analyze the relationship between bilateral trade and income convergence among trading partners. However, most studies have not paid attention to the effect that income levels and nature of bilateral trade have on the speed of income convergence. In this paper, we argue that the income levels of trading partners and the nature of bilateral trade play important role in the relationship between bilateral trade and international income convergence. To account for the effect of income levels of trading partners, this paper presents an approach that explicitly accounts for bilateral trade among high-income (OECD) countries, bilateral trade between high-income and low-income (SSA) countries, and bilateral trade among low-income (SSA) countries. We also used total trade data for 25 OECD countries and 30 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1980-2018 to avoid the potential bias for selecting certain countries based on arbitrary percentage of trade relationship. We used the 2SLS estimations technique to avoid endogeneity problems due to the nature of the dataset. The paper finds that the bilateral trade-income convergence relationship for OECD to SSA is the strongest. This result throws light on the claim that the nature of bilateral trade between high-income and low-income countries promotes one directional knowledge spillover from high-income to low-income countries which enables low-income countries to adopt new technologies and grow faster than their high-income counterparts. Also, bilateral trade among OECD countries, which mostly comprises of differentiated products, promotes descent income convergence among them. However, bilateral trade among SSA countries has the least effect on income convergence. Findings of the study have important implications for bilateral trade among low-income countries and between low income and high income countries. First, if SSA countries want to develop and catch up with their rich counterparts, they should continue to promote free trade with high income countries by dismantling remaining protection policies. Second, the African Continental Free Trade Area's (AfCFTA) efforts to boost the manufacturing sector through industrialization is in the right direction to promote the production of more differentiated products in Africa which will create growth in income for member countries as they trade more. Finally, there is the need for SSA countries to increase investment rates and improve human capital accumulation to enable them to accelerate the adoption of new technologies and grow faster than their high-income counterparts, while bridging the income gap between them through trade. JEL Classifications: F11; F14; O33; O47 Keywords: Economic Openness; Income Convergence; Bilateral Trade; Economic Growth; 2SLS Estimator, INTRODUCTION The implications of international trade on income differential among trading nations have been professionally researched since the works of neoclassical growth theorists (Solow, 1956; Swan 1956) which generated the [...]

As an important part of corporate value, risk-taking has always been the focus of scholars. The existing research mainly focuses on the impact of corporate shareholders and managers' personal characteristics on corporate risk-taking, and few scholars study it from the perspective of regional environment. Based on the sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2006 to 2020, this paper empirically tests the impact of regional investment preferences on corporate risk-taking by using multiple regression methods; Then, the instrumental variables and propensity matching methods are used to test whether the main regression results have changed; Furthermore, this paper explores the mechanism of regional investment preference to reduce the level of corporate risk-taking; Finally, the impact of industry intensity and policy uncertainty on the main regression results will be tested in an expanded way. The research results show that the stronger the investment preference of the region where the company is located, the lower the company's risk-taking. After a series of robustness tests such as instrumental variable method and propensity score matching method, the main regression results of this paper remain unchanged. The mechanism test shows that regional investment preference can reduce managers' overconfidence and improve the quality of internal control, thereby reducing the level of corporate risk-taking. Further research shows that fierce industry competition and policy uncertainty can enhance the impact of regional investment preferences on corporate risk-taking. The research results not only enrich the research on the factors affecting enterprise risk-taking, but also deepen the theoretical understanding of the impact of the regional environment on corporate governance, which has certain reference significance for further improving corporate governance, optimizing corporate risk-taking and enhancing corporate value. JEL Classifications: G34, M14, O16 Keywords: Investment preference, Risk-taking, Overconfidence, Internal control, Corresponding Author's Email Address: Email: 810353126@qq.com, INTRODUCTION Risk-taking is an important link in the company's investment decision-making. It refers to the behavior tendency of the company to choose high-risk investment projects on the basis of weighing [...]

It is widely held that smart contracts on a blockchain possess several unique properties, including immutability, disintermediation, and enhanced security, that can be advantageous to organizations. In particular, having these properties can enable smart contracts to benefit human resources departments in a number of ways, including applicant verification, tracking employee skills and tasks, and facilitating compensation. However, it is also reported that effectively implementing smart contracts involves a number of challenges to HR managers. To address these challenges, it would be valuable to establish criteria to help HR managers employ smart contracts successfully. The purpose of this paper is to develop a set of such criteria. The paper first provides an overview of the nature of blockchain and smart contracts and then, based on a review of relevant literature, describes how implementation of blockchain-enabled smart contracts in an HR department may benefit an organization by producing transaction cost savings through expediting processes, enhancing security, and reducing intermediaries. The paper then focuses on various challenges that have been identified in the literature to the successful use of smart contracts. These include issues regarding smart contract integrity, immutability, and security, as well as potential problems associated with a variety of legal issues. Synthesizing this information, the paper develops a set of best practice guidelines to help HR managers determine whether and how to employ smart contracts successfully for HR-related processes. The guidelines emphasize the importance of initial understanding and testing of planned smart contracts, protecting security by ensuring that only permissioned people can access smart contract data, and guaranteeing the integrity of smart contracts by paying very close attention to the translation of natural to programming language and establishing robust reviews of programmed contracts. Policy implications of the guidelines include the importance of HR departments ensuring that all employees who are involved in implementing the technology have a good understanding of the nature and capabilities of smart contracts, that robust methods be implemented to guarantee that the contracts are correctly programmed, and that HR managers keep abreast of legislative environment related to legal issues that may affect their department's use of smart contracts. JEL classifications: M12, M5, O33, L20 Keywords: Smart Contract, HRM, Blockchain technology, INTRODUCTION Utilizing smart contracts on a blockchain can improve processes common to human resource management (HRM), including refining applicant verification; accurately and securely tracking individual employees' skills, talents, and tasks; [...]

This paper describes the growth of local-currency bond markets in Emerging Asia and the institutional and policy challenges facing the region's economies for their further development. It presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between local-currency government bond (LCGB) market development and the components of financial development, using panel data for selected Emerging Asian economies. The analysis seeks to identify the key determinants for the development of LCGB markets. The results show that the depth of and access to both financial markets and financial institutions have a significantly positive impact on LCGB market development. Critical factors associated with local-currency bond market depth include macroeconomic variables, the exchange-rate regime, capital account openness and creditor rights. Based on these results, the paper offers policy directions for fostering the development of local-currency bond markets in the region. Keywords: Local-currency government bond, bond market development, financial deepening, financial development, Southeast Asia, Asia, 1. Introduction Emerging Asia's bond markets have grown substantially over the last two decades. For instance, in the six ASEAN countries for which data are available (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, [...]

The impact of agricultural productivity growth on the process of structural change, an increase in the share of labor employed in manufacturing, is a much debated topic. One perspective argues that agricultural productivity promotes structural change via its contribution of various resources to the manufacturing sector. Another hypothesis proposed is that agricultural productivity growth will draw resources away from agriculture. This paper hypothesizes that agricultural productivity growth plays a key role in the structural change process, but not necessarily through the mechanisms usually proposed. It is hypothesized here that agricultural productivity growth improves the quality of human labor (measured by the human development index, human capital accumulation, and reductions in infant mortality). In turn, improvements in the quality of human labor make it more profitable to employ labor in manufacturing and thus structural change, measured by the share of manufacturing employment in total employment, increases. These hypotheses are tested using dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) techniques utilizing data from seventeen countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The findings indicate that agricultural productivity growth has a significant positive impact human labor quality as measured by the human development index, human capital accumulation, and reductions in infant mortality. In addition, improvements in the quality of human labor in turn have a significant positive impact on the extent of structural change as measured by the share of manufacturing employment as a share of total employment. In addition, trade, as measured by exports plus imports divided by GDP, also has a significant positive impact on the extent of structural change. Finally, inflation appears to slow the structural change process. The policy implications are straightforward. Agricultural productivity does indeed seem to be important in the process of structural change. Thus development programs involving Sub-Saharan Africa should focus on investment in the development of agricultural technologies that will raise agricultural productivity. In a broader sense, governments should focus investment on improving the overall quality of labor. JEL Classifications: O1, O13, O14, O15 Keywords: agricultural productivity, structural change, human development, Africa, INTRODUCTION The primary objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of agricultural productivity on structural change (the shift of resources, in particular labor, out of agriculture and into [...]

Unemployment remains a global challenge that requires additional ways of dealing with it. Therefore, the role of Reserve or Central Banks in reducing unemployment is of recent seeking more attention. This paper examines monetary policy shocks and unemployment nexus in the emerging market economies in Africa. The models of this study are designed within the panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) framework. The models majorly rely on the New Keynesian model. Given the nominal rigidities of the New Keynesian model, the monetary policy can therefore, serve as an important tool which can have a reasonable leverage on real variables. As claimed by Bernanke (2007) that the stance of monetary policy was appropriate to prevent deflation and high unemployment and as it has been empirically tested for developed economies, this paper provides a quantitative evaluation of an aspect of such statement in the context of emerging economies of Africa. We used annual data series on five emerging economies in Africa over the period 1991 to 2020, making 150 balanced panel data observations. The countries include, Egypt, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa. The selection was based on those African countries identified as emerging markets by various international bodies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), James O'Neill, Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE), S&P Global Ratings, EM Bond Index, Dow Jones, Russell, Columbia University and Cornell University. The findings of the study revealed that unemployment falls for at most four periods in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks while the response dissipates afterwards. Individually, unemployment rate in Mauritius and Nigeria rose in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks while in South Africa, Egypt and Morocco, it falls in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks. By and large, the results seem to show credence to the effectiveness of monetary policy in each country to achieve desired macroeconomic targets. The main implication of the results is that, expansionary monetary and fiscal policy undertaken by policymakers of emerging economies in Africa can enhance the labor market to recover from the downturns recently experienced in these economies. JEL Classifications: C33, E24, E52, O55 Keywords: Monetary policy shocks; Unemployment; Vector Autoregressions; Emerging Market Economies in Africa, INTRODUCTION Some economies of the world have recently been characterized by a transition from traditional economies, which heavily relied on agriculture and export of raw materials, to a more industrialized [...]

Agriculture plays a vital role in driving economic output and employment in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Despite some progress, agricultural productivity in SSA still lags behind other regions. Limited access to finance remains a significant impediment to improving agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper investigates the effect of financial proximity on agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan African countries. The study primarily employs the system GMM estimator, chosen to address the endogeneity issue typical in macro panel data. This method is also well-suited to our study because it accommodates a high number of cross-sections relative to the number of periods within each cross-section. Additionally, the IV-2SLS method is employed to check the robustness of the findings. The study uses an unbalanced panel for the 36 African countries with data for the period 2004-2019. Our findings show that increasing the financial proximity favors agricultural productivity in SSA countries. Specifically, the number of commercial bank branches (CBB) and the number of automated teller machines (ATM) per 100 000 adults, as indicators of financial proximity, have positive and significant effects on agricultural value added per worker in SSA. Additionally, our findings show that rainfall, arable land, and institutional quality are robust determinants of agricultural productivity. The positive effects of the number of CBB and the number of ATM are even more pronounced on agricultural productivity when coupled with strong institutional quality. Our findings suggest that improving financial services' accessibility in rural areas, coupled with enhanced institutional quality, regular rainfall, ample arable land, and increased access to water and land, are pivotal steps for achieving sustainable enhancements in labor productivity. This, in turn, leads to increased returns through value-added growth and expanded employment in the agricultural sector. JEL Classifications: G21, Q14, Q18 Keywords: Financial inclusion, Financial proximity, Agricultural productivity, Sub-Saharan Africa, INTRODUCTION Agriculture is a key contributor to economic output and the leading source of employment among Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries, contributing 4 times more to regional gross domestic product (GDP) [...]

Existing literature on health inequalities often overlooks the nuanced dynamics, particularly among vulnerable children with chronic diseases and disabilities and fails to consider regional disparities within countries like South Africa. This paper asserts the necessity for a more granular analysis in South Africa, recognizing the varied health outcomes for children across different economic segments and geographical settings. Specifically, the health trajectories for children differ markedly between rural formal areas, regions under traditional authorities, formal urban areas, and informal urban settlements. Addressing the generalizations common in prior research, this study takes a precise, regionally focused approach to socio-economic-driven disparities in chronic illness or disability. It distinguishes between rural formal areas, traditional authority areas, formal urban areas, and informal urban areas, unveiling the intricate layers of health disparities. Using data from the National Income Dynamics Study, concentration indices, and the Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition method, the paper analyzed health inequality trends from 2008 to 2017. The results uncover significant inequalities, with alarming trends, particularly among children with chronic illnesses and disabilities in traditional authority regions and informal urban environments. The paper's evidence shows that rural formal areas have experienced a decline in health disparities as opposed to the deepening divide in traditional authority-led regions. The urban analysis reveals a split: while formal urban settings often favour the wealthier, informal urban areas indicate a shift towards lower socioeconomic brackets. The decomposition analysis highlights the evolving socioeconomic elements influencing each region over time. These insights emphasize the urgent necessity for geographically tailored policy interventions. By understanding the distinct socioeconomic landscapes across various regions, we can formulate policies that resonate with each area's specific realities and challenges. Such targeted strategies are essential in reducing health inequalities and enhancing the life quality of children with chronic health conditions and disabilities, playing a critical role in South Africa's journey toward comprehensive health equity. JEL Classification: I14 Keywords: Socioeconomic disparities, Chronic illness, Disability, South African children, Urban and rural variations, Health inequality, INTRODUCTION Globally, persistent health concerns and disabilities, including HIV and AIDS, respiratory ailments, undernourishment, and mental health issues, present considerable public health obstacles for children. A striking United Nations Children's [...]

As an important part of corporate value, risk-taking has always been the focus of scholars. The existing research mainly focuses on the impact of corporate shareholders and managers' personal characteristics on corporate risk-taking, and few scholars study it from the perspective of regional environment. Based on the sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2006 to 2020, this paper empirically tests the impact of regional investment preferences on corporate risk-taking by using multiple regression methods; Then, the instrumental variables and propensity matching methods are used to test whether the main regression results have changed; Furthermore, this paper explores the mechanism of regional investment preference to reduce the level of corporate risk-taking; Finally, the impact of industry intensity and policy uncertainty on the main regression results will be tested in an expanded way. The research results show that the stronger the investment preference of the region where the company is located, the lower the company's risk-taking. After a series of robustness tests such as instrumental variable method and propensity score matching method, the main regression results of this paper remain unchanged. The mechanism test shows that regional investment preference can reduce managers' overconfidence and improve the quality of internal control, thereby reducing the level of corporate risk-taking. Further research shows that fierce industry competition and policy uncertainty can enhance the impact of regional investment preferences on corporate risk-taking. The research results not only enrich the research on the factors affecting enterprise risk-taking, but also deepen the theoretical understanding of the impact of the regional environment on corporate governance, which has certain reference significance for further improving corporate governance, optimizing corporate risk-taking and enhancing corporate value. JEL Classifications: G34, M14, O16 Keywords: Investment preference, Risk-taking, Overconfidence, Internal control, INTRODUCTION Risk-taking is an important link in the company's investment decision-making. It refers to the behavior tendency of the company to choose high-risk investment projects on the basis of weighing [...]

Amid ever-growing global value chains (GVCs), a major controversial topic relates to the extent to which developing economies benefit from participating in such value chains. To measure these gains, this paper examines data pertaining to value-added in exports from three Southeast Asian economies--Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. The study estimates the sectoral income elasticities of the export demand of each country over the period 19802017, revealing that the highest income elasticities are observed in low value-adding sectors such as primary products, resource-based goods and low-tech industries. This implies that the three countries have been involved in simple and not high-skill tasks within GVCs. The paper also examines the sectoral domestic share of value-added (DVA) and foreign share of value-added (FVA) of exports of the three economies using the OECD Trade in Value-added (TiVA) database over the period 2005-15. We find that DVA in the medium- and high-tech industries that add greater value is smaller than FVA in all three countries. Overall, these results suggest that developing nations need to step up their participation in GVCs through process and/or function upgrading. Keywords: Global value chains, production capability, value-added, income elasticity of export demand, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam., 1. Introduction Over the last two decades, the importance of global value chains (GVCs) in international trade and production has grown significantly. Today, a large number of economies and firms [...]

Using the mobility restrictions implemented by Malaysia during the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study, this paper relies on detailed data on employment patterns and on the possibility to work from home and without physical proximity to estimate the extent and distribution of jobs most vulnerable to mobility restrictions. It finds that about 64.5 per cent of jobs in Malaysia cannot be performed from home, after adjusting for Internet access, while about 50.9 per cent of jobs require high levels of physical proximity. These are the jobs that are most vulnerable to strict mobility restrictions, such as those imposed during the pandemic. Workers most at risk are primarily those with relatively low education, low level of income and advanced or very young age. Jobs in less developed regions of Malaysia are also particularly vulnerable. Against this backdrop, the paper argues that Malaysia's experience during the COVID-19 pandemic provides some vital lessons in supporting those who are most vulnerable to job losses during mobility restrictions. These lessons include improving the targeting of cash transfers, scaling up wage subsidies in supporting worker retention and hiring and leveraging upskilling/reskilling initiatives with a focus on non-routine cognitive analytical and interpersonal skills. Keywords: Employment, skills, social protection, COVID-19, mobility restrictions, Malaysia., 1. Introduction Malaysia has been adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent mobility restrictions implemented to flatten the curve of the pandemic. The health and human toll of [...]

A sudden stop is the slowdown or cut-off of capital flows into an economy resulting in consumption and output collapses. Developing countries are known to experience this problem more frequently. The consensus in the literature is that these reversals are caused by poor economic management in these countries. While it is understandable that weak macroeconomic fundamentals lead to sudden stops, this paper shows that developing countries may face a sudden stop even when their macroeconomic indicators do not suggest one is imminent. A combination of certain factors can dry up funds for these countries: A unique borrower, borrowing at a significantly high level, pushing interest rates to the point where a developing country is not able to borrow due to credit rationing. The US has run a significant current account deficit over the last 30 years, borrowing far more than any other major economy. This paper analyzes the impact of the US deficits on developing countries that are trying to finance their projects. It provides regression results, then develops and simulates a theoretical model to investigate this. The Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data regression results show that the US deficits are negatively associated with the current account deficits of the developing countries. The developing country loses its ability to borrow freely when the US's borrowing exogenously increases. The real business cycle model shows that this entry to the market causes a sudden stop-type effect even when the developing country is not experiencing any immediate problems in its economy. The simulation results show that the reduced borrowing opportunities for the current period and possibly future periods distort the production process and decrease welfare in developing countries. These results suggest that developing countries, when planning their projects and the related need for borrowing, need to be wary of these conditions in addition to their own situation. Moreover, when a sudden stop occurs, international institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank should be cautious. They should examine whether the sudden stop was the result of poor planning and macroeconomic conditions or the result of an external factor such as the US increasing its borrowing to crowd out other borrowers. JEL Classifications: F00, G15 and F32 Keywords: Current Account Deficits, Sudden Stops, Welfare, Developing Countries, the US Corresponding Author's Email Address: n.ozdemir@unf.edu, INTRODUCTION A sudden stop is the slowdown, or cut-off of capital flows into an economy, which is typically accompanied by consumption and output collapses. It could be caused by foreign [...]

This paper examines the effect of a visit by a country's leader to the U.S. on the ability to attract foreign loans. The difficulty is the issue of endogeneity. As the leader's visit may attract foreign loans, leaders may also be tempted to visit countries known to be major creditors. To deal with potential endogeneity, we introduce a novel instrumental variable for the number of leader's trips. The instrument is urban distance defined as the gap between the level of urban development in the country of the leader relative to that in the United States. We conduct a Two-Stage-Least-Squares estimation (2SLS) and the Limited Information Maximum Likelihood (LIML) estimation where the urban distance serves as a source of exogenous variation in leader's trips. The data for leader's trips is derived from the historical archives of the U.S. State Department. The estimation provides evidence of a statistically significant positive coefficient of leader's trips. This result implies that these trips by the leaders signal to the creditors their commitment to use the borrowed funds properly and to repay these funds in due time. Our results are robust even after the inclusion of other control variable, using alternative samples, and accounting for the potential of instrument weakness. Borrowers ought to consider the beneficial effect of a visit by their leaders to their creditors. These trips allow the leaders to present to foreign creditors the projects that need to be financed in their countries, to persuade them to extend a loan to their country with concessionary terms, to highlight the future benefits of the loan, and to reassure them of the abilityof the borrower to repay the principal and interest in due time. JEL Classifications : H63, H11 Keywords : External Debt, Executive, INTRODUCTION This paper examines the effect of the number of visits by the leader of the country or the head of the government to the United States on external debt. [...]

Agriculture plays a vital role in driving economic output and employment in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Despite some progress, agricultural productivity in SSA still lags behind other regions. Limited access to finance remains a significant impediment to improving agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper investigates the effect of financial proximity on agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan African countries. The study primarily employs the system GMM estimator, chosen to address the endogeneity issue typical in macro panel data. This method is also well-suited to our study because it accommodates a high number of cross-sections relative to the number of periods within each cross-section. Additionally, the IV-2SLS method is employed to check the robustness of the findings. The study uses an unbalanced panel for the 36 African countries with data for the period 2004-2019. Our findings show that increasing the financial proximity favors agricultural productivity in SSA countries. Specifically, the number of commercial bank branches (CBB) and the number of automated teller machines (ATM) per 100 000 adults, as indicators of financial proximity, have positive and significant effects on agricultural value added per worker in SSA. Additionally, our findings show that rainfall, arable land, and institutional quality are robust determinants of agricultural productivity. The positive effects of the number of CBB and the number of ATM are even more pronounced on agricultural productivity when coupled with strong institutional quality. Our findings suggest that improving financial services' accessibility in rural areas, coupled with enhanced institutional quality, regular rainfall, ample arable land, and increased access to water and land, are pivotal steps for achieving sustainable enhancements in labor productivity. This, in turn, leads to increased returns through value-added growth and expanded employment in the agricultural sector. JEL Classifications: G21, Q14, Q18 Keywords: Financial inclusion, Financial proximity, Agricultural productivity, Sub-Saharan Africa, INTRODUCTION Agriculture is a key contributor to economic output and the leading source of employment among Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries, contributing 4 times more to regional gross domestic product (GDP) [...]

Existing literature on health inequalities often overlooks the nuanced dynamics, particularly among vulnerable children with chronic diseases and disabilities and fails to consider regional disparities within countries like South Africa. This paper asserts the necessity for a more granular analysis in South Africa, recognizing the varied health outcomes for children across different economic segments and geographical settings. Specifically, the health trajectories for children differ markedly between rural formal areas, regions under traditional authorities, formal urban areas, and informal urban settlements. Addressing the generalizations common in prior research, this study takes a precise, regionally focused approach to socio-economic-driven disparities in chronic illness or disability. It distinguishes between rural formal areas, traditional authority areas, formal urban areas, and informal urban areas, unveiling the intricate layers of health disparities. Using data from the National Income Dynamics Study, concentration indices, and the Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition method, the paper analyzed health inequality trends from 2008 to 2017. The results uncover significant inequalities, with alarming trends, particularly among children with chronic illnesses and disabilities in traditional authority regions and informal urban environments. The paper's evidence shows that rural formal areas have experienced a decline in health disparities as opposed to the deepening divide in traditional authority-led regions. The urban analysis reveals a split: while formal urban settings often favour the wealthier, informal urban areas indicate a shift towards lower socioeconomic brackets. The decomposition analysis highlights the evolving socioeconomic elements influencing each region over time. These insights emphasize the urgent necessity for geographically tailored policy interventions. By understanding the distinct socioeconomic landscapes across various regions, we can formulate policies that resonate with each area's specific realities and challenges. Such targeted strategies are essential in reducing health inequalities and enhancing the life quality of children with chronic health conditions and disabilities, playing a critical role in South Africa's journey toward comprehensive health equity. JEL Classification: I14 Keywords: Socioeconomic disparities, Chronic illness, Disability, South African children, Urban and rural variations, Health inequality, INTRODUCTION Globally, persistent health concerns and disabilities, including HIV and AIDS, respiratory ailments, undernourishment, and mental health issues, present considerable public health obstacles for children. A striking United Nations Children's [...]

Social scientists have extensively studied the causes of good institutions, including the origins of economic freedom. Results concerning the causes of different kinds of institutions are often similar, often concluding that the geography, environment, and culture are important factors. However, a recent political economy framework suggests that certain dimensions of economic freedom, namely specific dimensions of the size of government (government consumption, transfers and subsidies, and the top marginal tax rate), differ systematically from other dimensions of liberalization. This paper explores these arguments by constructing an index of a set of consensus predictors of institutional quality: ethnic fractionalization (predicts negatively), the natural log of the population size (negatively), absolute latitude (positively), natural resource rents (negatively), the presence of the country in the Americas (negatively), British legal origins (positively), the presence of the country in Eurasia (positively), and island geography (positively). The countries with the 'best' fundamentals for institutional quality are Iceland, Ireland, Malta, Finland, and Cyprus, while the five with the 'worst' fundamentals are Angola, Nigeria, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Ghana. It then takes this index of 'fundamentals' of institutional quality and shows that, although they predict economic liberalism as a whole (as measured by the Economic Freedom of the World index) as they would predict other measures of institutional quality, they predict oppositely (i.e., corresponding to larger governments) for the dimensions of the size of government listed above. The result is congruent with the predictions of the political economy model. Additionally, this result is not contingent on the inclusion of any one of the 'fundamental' variables, although natural resource rents and absolute latitude appear to be the most important variables. Countries with considerably more economic freedom than would be predicted by their fundaments include Peru, Singapore, the United States, Chile, and Canada; should deviations from fitted values be seen as presaging future movements in institutions, these countries are the most likely to see upcoming declines. The aforementioned political economy model implies that these findings are the result of complexities involved in the interaction between state capacity and different dimensions of economic liberalization. JEL Classifications: P17, O43, and D70 Keywords: Institutional Development; Economic Freedom, INTRODUCTION There is extensive scholarship on the origins and causes of economic freedom (Lawson, Murphy & Powell 2020), one dimension of institutional quality. The broader literature on institutions often points [...]

It is undoubtedly accurate that there is a lack of parity in the WTO dispute system. Although the system has been lauded as being a rule-based adjudication system, developing country members and least-developed countries (LDCs) have to go to great lengths to protect their interests against a formidable trade partner. Remarkably, a few of them have successfully turned the tables with clever approaches in trade disputes against more resourceful and powerful members of the WTO. This paper adopts an exploratory qualitative research method using an in-depth analysis of six case studies of trade disputes between economies classified as 'weak' against economies classified as 'strong' members of the WTO. A total of 391 cases that were filed between 1995 and 2021 were first examined. Subsequently, out of 100 cases where developing countries participated in the WTO litigation as complainants, a total of 10 cases in which 'the weak' member prevailed. Six cases were chosen because they explicitly illustrate how the 'weak' WTO members harness their resources and unique winning tactics to overcome the 'strong' WTO members' ample supply of resources and aggressive tactics. The paper shows that governance effectiveness, influential alliances, public-private partnerships, government-NGO collaboration, engagement of academics and experts, effective use of the Advisory Centre on WTO Law (ACWL) coupled with effective leadership and clear plans were crucial for weak members' successful legal challenge at the WTO. These findings present promising tactics that WTO members could use to prevail in their trade disputes against a 'stronger' WTO member. They should, at best, inspire 'weak' members to overcome their hesitance to use the WTO judicial process to protect their interests either as parties or marginally as third parties. Indeed, the developing country members and LDCs have a variety of tools they can put to work when filing a dispute to help maximize the benefits and lower litigation costs. Chief among them is the AWCL. Our case analysis shows that ACWL's low cost has relatively attenuated 'weak' members' legal and financial stakes associated with a trade dispute. JEL Classifications: D57, F13, F14, F15, F23, O19, O24 Keywords: Dispute Settlement Understanding, WTO, International Trade, ACWL Corresponding Author's Email Address: mamoun.benmamoun@slu.edu, INTRODUCTION The World Trade Organization (WTO) is premised on the notion that 'the weak' and 'the strong' are treated equally. In theory, all member countries of the WTO are equal [...]

In the wake of an unprecedented increase in the trade policy-related uncertainty of the US since 2017, we analyze the ability of a newspaper-based trade policy uncertainty index (TPU) of the US in predicting the growth rate of emerging market economies. The newspaper-based trade policy uncertainty index was developed by Caldara et al. (2020), while GDP data was obtained from the Global Economic Database maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, in the form of an aggregate value for all emerging economies. We analyze the data in a bi-variate VAR(2) setup, with the number of lags identified using Akaike Information Criterion, using the novel multivariate time-varying causality framework developed by Rossi and Wang (2019) on an effective sample of 1984:Q3 to 2019:Q3. Starting with the standard constant parameter Granger causality test, we find no evidence of TPU to the growth of GDP. We then proceed with the time-varying parameter causality test of Wang and Rossi (2019), where we find overwhelming evidence of the role of trade uncertainty in impacting the growth of emerging markets in a statistically significant manner, with the effect being on the rise since the Great Recession. Our results are robust to the usage of an alternative econometric methodology, metric of trade uncertainty, and also over an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. While the time-varying predictive analysis is the focus of our paper, causality tests are silent about the sign of the impact of TPU on the GDP growth of the emerging markets. Given this, we estimate a time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV). We find that the impact is sharp and negative. Our results imply that policymakers in emerging countries must be aware of the possible threat of an upcoming recession in the wake of heightened trade policy uncertainty in the US, and hence, must be ready to undertake necessary (expansionary) policies to prevent a downturn in their respective domestic economies. To draw optimal policy responses, authorities would need to utilize time-varying econometric models, since the effect of uncertainty related to trade policies of the US are indeed non-constant over time. JEL Classifications: C32, E32 Keywords: Trade Policy Uncertainty of the United States, Time-Varying Multivariate Causality, Emerging Market Economies Corresponding Author's Email Address: rangan.gupta@up.ac.za, INTRODUCTION The role of economic uncertainty in causing the 'Great Recession' in the United States (US) has been studied widely, as has been the influence of the same on other [...]

It is undoubtedly accurate that there is a lack of parity in the WTO dispute system. Although the system has been lauded as being a rule-based adjudication system, developing country members and least-developed countries (LDCs) have to go to great lengths to protect their interests against a formidable trade partner. Remarkably, a few of them have successfully turned the tables with clever approaches in trade disputes against more resourceful and powerful members of the WTO. This paper adopts an exploratory qualitative research method using an in-depth analysis of six case studies of trade disputes between economies classified as 'weak' against economies classified as 'strong' members of the WTO. A total of 391 cases that were filed between 1995 and 2021 were first examined. Subsequently, out of 100 cases where developing countries participated in the WTO litigation as complainants, a total of 10 cases in which 'the weak' member prevailed. Six cases were chosen because they explicitly illustrate how the 'weak' WTO members harness their resources and unique winning tactics to overcome the 'strong' WTO members' ample supply of resources and aggressive tactics. The paper shows that governance effectiveness, influential alliances, public-private partnerships, government-NGO collaboration, engagement of academics and experts, effective use of the Advisory Centre on WTO Law (ACWL) coupled with effective leadership and clear plans were crucial for weak members' successful legal challenge at the WTO. These findings present promising tactics that WTO members could use to prevail in their trade disputes against a 'stronger' WTO member. They should, at best, inspire 'weak' members to overcome their hesitance to use the WTO judicial process to protect their interests either as parties or marginally as third parties. Indeed, the developing country members and LDCs have a variety of tools they can put to work when filing a dispute to help maximize the benefits and lower litigation costs. Chief among them is the AWCL. Our case analysis shows that ACWL's low cost has relatively attenuated 'weak' members' legal and financial stakes associated with a trade dispute. JEL Classifications: D57, F13, F14, F15, F23, O19, O24 Keywords: Dispute Settlement Understanding, WTO, International Trade, ACWL, INTRODUCTION The World Trade Organization (WTO) is premised on the notion that 'the weak' and 'the strong' are treated equally. In theory, all member countries of the WTO are equal [...]

In the wake of an unprecedented increase in the trade policy-related uncertainty of the US since 2017, we analyze the ability of a newspaper-based trade policy uncertainty index (TPU) of the US in predicting the growth rate of emerging market economies. The newspaper-based trade policy uncertainty index was developed by Caldara et al. (2020), while GDP data was obtained from the Global Economic Database maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, in the form of an aggregate value for all emerging economies. We analyze the data in a bi-variate VAR(2) setup, with the number of lags identified using Akaike Information Criterion, using the novel multivariate time-varying causality framework developed by Rossi and Wang (2019) on an effective sample of 1984:Q3 to 2019:Q3. Starting with the standard constant parameter Granger causality test, we find no evidence of TPU to the growth of GDP. We then proceed with the time-varying parameter causality test of Wang and Rossi (2019), where we find overwhelming evidence of the role of trade uncertainty in impacting the growth of emerging markets in a statistically significant manner, with the effect being on the rise since the Great Recession. Our results are robust to the usage of an alternative econometric methodology, metric of trade uncertainty, and also over an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. While the time-varying predictive analysis is the focus of our paper, causality tests are silent about the sign of the impact of TPU on the GDP growth of the emerging markets. Given this, we estimate a time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV). We find that the impact is sharp and negative. Our results imply that policymakers in emerging countries must be aware of the possible threat of an upcoming recession in the wake of heightened trade policy uncertainty in the US, and hence, must be ready to undertake necessary (expansionary) policies to prevent a downturn in their respective domestic economies. To draw optimal policy responses, authorities would need to utilize time-varying econometric models, since the effect of uncertainty related to trade policies of the US are indeed non-constant over time. JEL Classifications: C32, E32 Keywords: Trade Policy Uncertainty of the United States, Time-Varying Multivariate Causality, Emerging Market Economies Corresponding Author's Email Address: rangan.gupta@up.ac.za, INTRODUCTION The role of economic uncertainty in causing the 'Great Recession' in the United States (US) has been studied widely, as has been the influence of the same on other [...]

Acts of terrorism have increased markedly in recent decades. Social analyses have found terror-related events to be associated with nationwide increases in fear, panic, and uncertainty amongst individuals and businesses who play a major role in the stock market. The current paper intends to contribute to the established literature by quantitatively examining the impacts of terrorist attacks on financial market volatility by conducting an in-depth case study of the Sri Lankan stock market during and after the civil war (1986-2017). Sri Lanka serves as an excellent natural experiment for the current study due to the sustained length and severity of the terrorist attacks between 1983 and 2009. Five forms of terror variables: (i) cumulative number of deaths; (ii) cumulative number of victims injured; (iii) number of fatalities; (iv)number of injured, and (v) a terror dummy variable were utilized in modeling the stock market volatility. This paper uses autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH), and generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (GARCH) methods to model the stock market volatility. The method is consistent with the assumption that the innovations from stock returns models contain a fixed unconditional variance, but the conditional variance varies. The findings of this paper suggest that terror attacks, in general, have exerted a significant effect on stock market volatility in Sri Lanka during the conflict period. Surprisingly, extrinsic factors of terror-related events such as the number of people injured or killed due to terrorist attacks were not found to be statistically significant jointly or separately in the conditional volatility equation, thus making it difficult to form a clear interaction among the variables. Investors seem to concern themselves more about the risk of instability which manifests as a result of terror-related events rather than the human cost of such events. The findings of this paper may be useful in improving the accuracy of future volatility prediction models. They could also be relevant in evaluating military sector projects that aim to boost investor confidence. JEL Classifications: C58, G15, N25 Key Words: Market Volatility, Sri Lanka, Terrorist Incidents Contact Author's email address: albert.wijeweera@ku.ac.ae, INTRODUCTION Acts of terrorism have increased markedly in recent decades. Social analyses have found terror-related events to be associated with nationwide increases in fear, panic, and uncertainty amongst individuals and [...]

An education system needs valid and objective information on student learning outcomes at a sufficiently disaggregated geographical level. Such data can inform policymakers on specific aspects in each geographical area that require attention and provide an indication of the returns to public investments in education. They are the starting point for any effort to improve the performance of an education system. Without information on learning outcomes, policy reforms or higher public investments in education are unlikely to be effective. Indonesia's education system does not currently have such information. In this paper, we take advantage of a government policy to change the mode of the national examination administration, from paper-based to computer-based testing, to estimate the quality of education in Indonesia at the district level. Our results indicate that education quality across the country's districts is highly heterogeneous. The gap in results between the highest-scoring and low est-scoring districts shows that children in the latter have been attending schools for nine years with minimal learning outcomes. We find that, over the course of one year, the average quality of education has increased slightly and the variation in quality has declined slightly. However, these national averages mask significant heterogeneities across and within districts. Keywords: Education policy, public policy, investment, Indonesia., 1. Introduction As a nation, Indonesia has always placed great attention on education. In the 1970s, the government embarked on one of the largest primary school construction programmes in the [...]

Reverse flows characterize a situation in which external inflows, such as remittances, are used to service external debt, finance capital flight, and/or accumulate foreign reserves. The existing literature on the impact of remittances in developing countries suggests that remittances are used for consumption and/or investment. However, the ultimate development effect of remittances will depend on how much of this external flow is absorbed domestically. If all remittances are not used for domestic consumption and/or investment, the residual amount will flow out of the country in the form of reverse flows. The objective of this paper is to identify the long run amount of reverse flows out of remittances in Jamaica, one of the largest recipient of remittances in the Caribbean. To examine the relationship between remittances and reverse flows in Jamaica, we estimate a net exports equation using the autoregressive distributed lag technique. We then calculate the marginal effect of remittance on reverse flows from the estimated remittance coefficient in the net exports equation. The dataset used in the paper covers the period 1976 to 2017. This determination is a first for Jamaica. The central finding is that, in the long run, approximately $0.24 of every dollar of remittances is used to finance reverse flows. Therefore, only 76 percent of any additional amount of remittances is domestically absorbed in the form of consumption and/or investment in Jamaica. These results suggest that the ultimate development impact of remittances will be overstated if reverse flows out of remittances are not taken into account. Our results echo earlier findings in the existing literature on reverse flows. The overarching policy implication of our finding is that policymakers should design growth policies of remittances after considering its reverse flow impact. Future research should focus on the reverse flow impacts of other external flows such as foreign aid. Further, future research should also identify reverse flows for other Caribbean countries. These findings are not only important for Jamaica but also have significance for other remittance-recipient developing countries. Keywords: Remittances, reverse flows, Jamaica, ARDL, INTRODUCTION Remittance inflows as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Jamaica are relatively large when compared to other small island developing states. This is reflective of the country's [...]

Most developing countries have large and persistent informal sector. Historically, the literature was dominated by strict duality viewpoint, where the formal and informal sectors are treated as two separate entities. However, in recent times, a new approach has developed where the formal and informal sectors are not binary but they often co-exist and feed into each other. Most academic work on agglomeration economies is based on developed countries where almost all production takes place in the formal sector. Apriori, there is no reason to believe that agglomeration economies do not extend to the informal sector. Hence, in this paper, we hypothesize that agglomeration economies can arise from the interaction between formal and informal firms as well. To check the validity of the hypothesis, we study the geographic distribution and Coagglomeration pattern between formal and informal manufacturing firms in India. Using the firm level National Sample Survey for unincorporated enterprises and Annual Survey of Industries data, we calculate the Ellison and Glaeser Coagglomeration index at 2-digit NIC level. Further, using the Marshall's theory of agglomeration, we create four kinds of linkages to capture the nature of interdependence between formal and informal firms, i.e. Buyer, Supplier, Labor and Technology. We find that there is heavy clustering of both formal and informal manufacturing firms in India, however, mostly in different areas, with few exceptions like Western Uttar Pradesh and Southern Tamil Nadu. Out of 22 major industries, we find high coagglomeration only in 7. The average value of coagglomeration index at aggregate level decreases from 0.00536 in 2000-01 to -0.0027 in 2015-16. This indicate towards reduced interdependence over time, however in few industries it remains high. The average value of labor linkage increased from 0.1889 in 2000-01 to 0.3651 in 2015-16, during the same period buyer linkage remained constant around 0.2481 and supplier linkage fell from 0.5755 to 0.2749. The technology linkage remained low throughout in the range of 0.02-0.03. Strong buyer and labor linkage mean subcontracting of inputs is the main motive driving the interaction between formal and informal firms. JEL Classifications: E26, O17, O25, L60 Keywords: Formal-Informal Sector, Coagglomeration, Agglomeration Economies, Manufacturing, INTRODUCTION Agglomeration economies has guided the industrial policy for many years. Despite the reduced travel cost, increased congestion, elevated factor costs and the risk of trade secret leaks, firms like [...]

The globalization of the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impacts is set to run havoc across economies in the world, throwing many into recession and possibly depression. The aim of this paper is to provide an overall understanding of the likely macroeconomic shocks of the pandemic on a diverse range of economic activities and indicators across economies. The paper covers implications to demand, supply, supply chain, trade, investment, price level, exchange rates, and financial stability and risk, growth, and international cooperation. The paper combines a unique theoretical impact mapping and supplements it with emerging evidence to develop the impacts' likely progression and span. Furthermore, the paper uses a standard Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply (AD-AS) model of macroeconomics to explain the likely growth effects arising out of essential and non-essential goods markets and outlines necessary features policy responses should consider. Data and information to analyze the impacts are assimilated from different sources, including news and media publications, the OECD, and IHS Markit-CIPS. Assessments of this paper suggest that many economies are about to see a period of stagflation driven by demand and supply slump, increased unemployment, deflationary pressure, reduced trade flows, and disruptions in the supply chain, which may result in a recessionary period if not acted fast with innovative policy responses. As almost all economies are badly affected, a global growth recession is imminent if the pandemic continues. However, based on past experience of pandemics and epidemics and the current evidence, a U-shaped recovery pattern is the most optimistic possibility for most countries and the world economy. The paper could help policy-makers in understanding the pandemic's broad-based impacts and policy needs to fight the imminent economic damage. Particularly, assessments with respect to the essential and non-essential goods markets could provide useful insights in designing appropriate policy responses to fight the pandemic. All considered, the paper calls for a collective and globalized response alongside standalone policy responses undertaken by individual economies. The assessments are broadly in line with the limited literature available on macroeconomic implications of CVODI-19 and could serve as a basis for advanced analysis on COVID-19 economics. JEL Classifications: F40, I15, E1, E6 Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, coronanomics, pandemic, economic impacts Corresponding Author's Email Address: sbarua@du.ac.bd, INTRODUCTION The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, termed as COVID-19 (also known as SARS-CoV-2) by the World Health Organization (WHO), is declared a pandemic by the WHO. The rapid 'globalization' [...]

This paper examines whether logistics upgrading activities undertaken by firms can compensate for the poor quality of logistics infrastructure at the national level. To do so, the study makes use of the World Bank's Enterprises Surveys (ESs) of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand for the 2015-16 period. This is the first study to analyse the logistics upgrading efforts of firms across multiple Southeast Asian countries. The key finding is that, while Indonesia lags behind the other two ASEAN members in terms of physical infrastructure investment, cumbersome regulatory procedures are the common challenge in all three countries. The inter-country, firm-level cross-sectional econometric analysis suggests that there is ample room for firms to improve their logistics capabilities to mitigate related bottlenecks at the national level. Moreover, certain forms of subsidies or tax incentives might be needed to offset the additional costs incurred by the firms. Keywords: logistics sector, ASEAN, upgrading, global value chains., 1. Introduction Logistics services have gained considerable global policy attention in recent years in light of their increasing importance in determining the overall competitiveness of firms (Lakshman et al. 2001; [...]

This paper studies the impact of COVID-19 on different demographic groups in the Thai labour market using the Labour Force Surveys conducted in 2018 and 2019. We construct a new set of COVID-19 impact indicators capturing both the degree of risk in industries and the degree of occupational flexibility in the Thai context. The results show that the effect of COVID-19 is highly divergent across demographic groups, which may further worsen the pre-existing inequality in the Thai labour market, given the composition of industrial sectors and occupations. The results also indicate that education attainments and income levels play a significant role in protecting individuals, suggesting the key contribution of human capital. In addition, marriage affects men and women workers differently during the crisis, with married women appearing to suffer more. Finally, this study highlights the need for targeted government support to vulnerable groups, including workers with low education, informal sector workers, private employees, older women and the young, who are more likely to be affected by COVID-19. Keywords: COVID-19, labour market, demographics, Thailand, 1. Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented worldwide economic recession. With lockdowns and social distancing, labour markets have been hit severely and many people are suffering from the [...]

The debate between private and public education is a widely discussed issue in personal and policy forums globally. In Nepal, private schools have grown significantly due to the perceived advantages associated with them. This paper tests if there are significant differences in labor-market outcomes for individuals educated in private schools compared to those educated in public schools. Research Methodology and Data: We employ nationally representative household survey data from the Nepal Living Standards Survey (NLSS III), conducted by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) Nepal in 2010/11, utilizing the Living Standards Measurement Survey (LMSS) methodology developed by the World Bank. We apply the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method to examine the relationship between educational attainment and four distinct measures of labor-market outcomes: labor force participation, employment status, job security, and wage income. Initially, we estimate these outcomes separately for individuals in private education and those in public education. Subsequently, we calculate and analyze whether the disparities in estimated values can be attributed to differences in education. Our findings reveal significant labor-market disparities between individuals participating in private education and those in public education. Those with private education display lower rates of labor force participation and reduced employment rates, suggesting fewer working hours. However, those employed within this group enjoy more secure salaried positions. Furthermore, private education is linked to higher wage incomes, primarily attributable to longer educational periods. The Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition demonstrates that most of these disparities are associated with variations in educational backgrounds. Consequently, the results highlight the role of segregated education in contributing to labor-market inequality, emphasizing the impact of private schools in exacerbating economic disparities in Nepal. The findings underscore the significance of educational attainment in ameliorating disparities between individuals educated in public and private schools. To address these issues, policymakers should concentrate on strategies aimed at increasing the duration of education for public school students, such as providing free, quality higher education. By narrowing the educational gap between private and public institutions, the nation can work towards diminishing wage and job security disparities, fostering a more equitable society. These findings also have relevance for countries grappling with similar socio-economic challenges, initiating essential policy discussions. JEL Classifications: I20, I24, J40 Keywords: Public-Private Education, School Choice, Education Inequality, Society, INTRODUCTION Private versus public education is a widely debated issue in personal and policy forums worldwide. Such discussions go beyond education disparities across wealthy school districts versus poor school districts; [...]

South Asia, the home to around one-fourth of the world's total population, and the fastest-growing region of the world, achieved an annual average GDP growth rate of 6.6 percent in 2015-2019. During the same period, it also demonstrated a modest share of gross domestic savings and fixed capital formation to GDP. The region has also experienced a considerable success in improving its level of financial inclusion. Within a span of only six years, the number of adults having an account in a formal financial institution increased to 38 percentage points in 2017, though large heterogeneity across countries exists. Despite these economic and financial developments, around half of the world's multidimensionally poor people live in this region. The region is also relatively less inclusive than those of high-income countries, as it excluded 30 percent of its adult population from the formal financial system in 2017. To accelerate its ongoing economic development and poverty reduction, further improvement of the level of financial inclusion is a particular concern in South Asia. However, we know very little about factors influencing financial inclusion in this region. In this paper, we examine the determinants of financial inclusion in South Asia using the World Bank's Global Findex database for the year 2017. Our probit estimations show that being a male, richer, more educated, and older are associated with higher levels of formal account and formal saving. While age and education affect formal credit in a similar manner, we find no significant association between gender and income level with formal credit. We also investigate how individual characteristics are associated with the barriers to financial inclusion and find that women exclude themselves from financial inclusion because other family member might have an account. Documentation and having accounts by other family members are the main factors of financial exclusion of the younger people, while cost and religious reasons discourage older people from having a bank account. Finally, we compare the determinants of informal financial services with those of formal financial services. Our findings have certain policy implications to include financially excluded people, i.e. poor, less educated, youth, and women, into financial network vis-a-vis promoting financial inclusion in South Asia. JEL Classifications: G20, G21, O16 Keywords: Financial inclusion, mobile money banking, probit model, South Asia, INTRODUCTION In the early nineteenth century, the growth literature only considered the real factors of production (i.e. land, labor, and capital) as the sources of economic growth, ignoring the importance [...]

The manufacturing sector plays a strategic role as a major contributor to economic growth and development. However, the harsh business environment in Nigeria has constrained learning and capability building in the Nigerian manufacturing sector. The present state of the manufacturing sector underscores the need for firm-level learning and strategic policy actions. This paper utilized data from the Enterprise Survey Panel covering the periods 2007, 2009, and 2014/2015 to investigate firm learning and productivity in the Nigerian manufacturing sector. Case study illustrations were also undertaken to further provide insights into the links between learning variables and the productivity of selected firms in the sector. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics; dynamic panel model (DPM) via ordinary least squares (OLS) and General Method of Moments (GMM) techniques. The results of the estimation show there is a positive and significant relationship between export participation lagged by one period (t-1) and the current firm performance. A one-period lag of the learning variables, namely: skills and training increased the productivity of firms. The case study illustrations revealed that major learning capabilities include customer feedback; through employees, staff training/seminars/workshops, and supplier feedback. The paper provides evidence to conjecture that the STI mode of learning, which involves formal research and development (R&D) in firms is not deep enough, and that domestic firms have less productivity relative to firms with some proportion of foreign ownership. Also, some of the constraints to learning and productivity are an unstable regulatory environment, poor infrastructure and high cost of doing business. The paper recommends both formal and informal modes/mechanisms of learning are important to ensure improved productivity of manufacturing firms in Nigeria Also, learning opportunities may differ within and across manufacturing subsectors. Industry regulators or agencies should organize to provide a forum for firms and relevant stakeholders to regularly interact on learning experiences to learn from each other and collaborate to address obstacles to productivity. JEL Classifications: O14, O33 and D22 Keywords: Learning, innovation, productivity, manufacturing, Nigeria, INTRODUCTION The manufacturing sector of any economy plays a strategic role as a major contributor to economic growth and development. It holds the key to employment, income, and an improved [...]

It is widely accepted that oil booms induce wealth effects that cause appreciation of the domestic currency, which harms the competitive manufacturing sector exports. This has been named the 'Dutch disease' and has been examined in many studies; however, very limited attention has been paid to the impact of Dutch disease on manufacturing sub-sectors. This paper examines the impact of an oil boom on manufacturing sub-sectors in oil-rich developed and developing countries. It assesses the oil boom effect on medium-high technology exports in a panel data sample of 39 oil-rich countries for the period 1990-2015. It also investigates the effect of an oil boom on high-technology exports in a panel data sample of 31 oil-rich countries for the period 1990-2016. We employ the panel data fixed effect with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors approach to tackle several panel data problems that are normally present in such analyses: heteroscedasticity, serial correlation, and cross-sectional dependence. Using real oil revenue and oil production as a proxy for the oil boom, the results of the study show that an oil boom significantly reduces medium-high technology exports and high-technology exports at the global level of oil-rich developed and developing countries. These results confirm the presence of the resource movement effect of the Dutch disease, which hinders economic growth and development. When the full sample is split into regional groupings, these results are observed in Middle Eastern and African countries, Asian and Pacific countries, and European and North American countries, suggesting that these countries are also affected by the Dutch disease. However, Latin American countries produce opposite results. An oil boom significantly increases both medium-high- and high-technology exports, contradicting the Dutch disease argument. The results of this study suggest that policy makers in countries experiencing the Dutch disease problem should improve institutional quality, develop human capital, promote economic diversification, and enhance investment in manufacturing sub-sectors. They should also minimize the appreciation of the real exchange rate, attract FDI in the manufacturing sector, and reduce the cost of doing business. This will help them to utilize oil wealth more effectively and efficiently, enhancing economic growth and development, therefore avoiding the Dutch disease problem. JEL Classifications: Q33, O13, O14, C23 Keywords: Dutch Disease, Oil Boom, Cross-Sectional Dependence, Fixed Effect with Driscoll-Kraay Standard Errors, INTRODUCTION The term 'Dutch disease' refers to a situation where a boom in the natural resource sector (e.g. oil) causes appreciation in the real exchange rate and reduction in the [...]

An important macro-economic issue of developed and developing countries is how best to decompose an economic time series into permanent (trend) and transitory (cycle) components. The issue is vital in empirical macroeconomics since, among other things, it relates to how one can estimate the output gap-the deviation of an economy's output from its potential or trend output. This paper considers how well the unobserved components model and the Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter decomposes real gross domestic product (GDP) in a small island developing state, the state of Barbados. The correlated unobserved components model for Barbados studied in the Agbeyegbe (2020) is modified to allow a second-order Markov trend. The effect of this modification is to make it possible to recover the HP trend as a particular case. The paper then compares several methods useful for trend decomposition of real GDP in Barbados. The competing methods are variants of two widely used trend-cycle decompositions of GDP that give markedly different estimates. Namely, methods based on the unobserved components model (UC) and the HP filter. The correlated unobserved components model produces smaller output gaps in amplitude, whereas the HP filter generates significant and persistent cycles. More specifically, the methods are: (i) the HP filter; (ii) an augmented HP filter (HP-AR), that allows for cyclical components to be serially correlated, introduced by Grant and Chan (2017b); (iii) the correlated unobserved components model (UCUR), without a break; (iv) the correlated unobserved components model (UCUR-t), with a break at time t; and (v) a correlated unobserved components model that allows for a second-order Markov trend process UCUR-2M. The result shows that for Barbados, with data covering the period 1967-2017, the correlated unobserved components model that allows for a break in trend fits the data better than the HP specification. These results are significant from a policy perspective. Knowing the correct duration of the business cycle is essential to providing appropriate recommendations; the result argues against the use of HP-filter in analyzing Barbados' business cycle. The result also finds that for Barbados, it is empirically important to correlate permanent and transitory shocks. By ignoring this correlation, researchers risk providing a misleading analysis of how the Barbadian economy works. JEL Classifications: E31, C11, C15, and C22 Keywords: Bayesian model comparison, Barbados, Out-put Gap, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Unobserved Components., INTRODUCTION An important macro-economic issue of interest is how best to decompose an economic time series into permanent(trend) and transitory (cycle) components. Though the issue is often about real gross [...]

The labor force constitutes a paramount factor of production in the realm of business operations. In the past, China's abundant labor force significantly boosted productivity for firms. However, as the demographic dividend gradually wanes, concerns have arisen regarding a scarcity of labor force, exacerbating worries about rising labor costs. Therefore, focusing on enhancing firms' labor investment efficiency becomes pivotal. Using a sample of A-stock listed firms in China from 2013 to 2020, we examine the impact of customer concentration on the labor investment efficiency of supplier firms. Prior literature provides mixed results regarding the effect of concentrated customers. They can act as a governance mechanism for reducing agency problems, thus, increasing investment efficiency. Conversely, agency problems are aggravated in suppliers with concentrated customers, consequently, reducing investment efficiency. Our results suggest that customer concentration reduces labor investment efficiency, and this effect is more pronounced when customers possess high bargaining power. Additionally, the mechanism analysis reveal that customer concentration leads to less accurate information disclosure, higher operating risk, and an incentive to 'empire building', reducing labor investment efficiency. The cross-sectional analysis reveals that customer concentration results in both over- and under-investment in labor, thereby reducing investment efficiency. In addition, we employ augmented models to rule out the possibility of a U-shaped relationship between customer concentration and labor investment efficiency. Furthermore, we adopt the instrumental variables approach as well as a two-stage regression model to address potential endogeneity concerns and mitigate the omitted variable concern. Our results hold after the robustness tests and endogeneity tests. The findings of this paper imply that firms should strategically diversify their customer bases, thereby reducing their reliance on a few large customers. Simultaneously, governments should actively encourage firms to broaden their customer base. It can help enhance labor investment efficiency by spreading the risks associated with customer concentration. Moreover, it is crucial to acknowledge that substantial customer bargaining power can negatively impact supplier firms. Thus, policymakers should promote antitrust regulations and fair trade practices to mitigate the high bargaining power of large customers. JEL Classifications: G31, E22, J20 Keywords: Customer concentration, Agency problems, Business risk, Labor investment efficiency, INTRODUCTION Labor constitutes a fundamental resource for firms' production and operational activities, holding significant implications for both macroeconomic growth and the competitiveness of micro-firms (Atanassov and Kim, 2009; Jung et [...]

Since early years, humans are migrating to ensure their survival or to improve their socio-economic position in society. In Pakistan, internal migration has not been given proper attention in policy making. Consequently, government is facing problems in managing the challenges and opportunities posed by internal migration. The present study attempted to analyse socio-economic factors that play crucial role in a household's decision to migrate internally by using data of Labour Force Survey 2020-21. In the questionnaire of labour force survey, there is a specific section related to migration. The migration is defined as 'households that has moved from one district to another district or to different country', it excludes the migration within district. The logit regression has been used to estimate the model. It has been found that more educated people particularly having professional and technical education tends to migrate. The internal migration increases with age, but after certain level it tends to start declining. It has also concluded that employment in public sector (due to job security or provision of housing facilities) motivate people to internally migrate. People belonging to middle income families are more likely to migrate in comparison to rich or very poor. Study confirms that search of better job opportunities and family compulsions are major factors in internal voluntary migration. However, law and order situations emerge as a significant factor in forced migration. As the internal migration are much higher than international migration so there is need that role of internal migration may be recognised in reducing poverty, employment and socio-economic development. Unfortunately, there exists lack of policy on internal labour flows. Most the labour force is not even registered at migration destinations. It is very crucial to calculate value of domestic remittances. It will be helpful in devising the policy to improve the status of internal migrants by providing them targeted technical and vocational education training so that they can get better job opportunities in destination places. JEL Classifications: R23, I23, E24 Keywords: Internal Migration, Education, Employment, INTRODUCTION Since early years of human settlement, they have been migrating in search of food, shelter, to escape impacts of changing climate and due to overpopulation in a particular area. [...]

Poverty remains a serious problem in Nigeria; women are among those mostly affected and are often deprived in many ways. This paper uses the multidimensional approach to examine poverty levels among women in Ibadan South West Local Government Area, Oyo State. Primary data was obtained from a sample of 393 women across the population density areas on socio-economic characteristics and poverty indicators (health, education and standard of living). The Alkire-Foster multidimensional approach was used to estimate the multidimensional poverty index (MPI) for the sampled women. The weights assigned to these poverty dimensions were generated using the multiple correspondence analysis. The MPI for each woman were categorized as abject poor (deprived in at least two dimensions), moderate poor (deprived in one dimension) and non-poor (not deprived in any dimension). The mean age of the women was 30.8[+ or -]6.7 years. One-third of the respondents were mostly artisans (30.0%) and traders (26.5%), and 52.2% had completed secondary education. About 23.0% of women were deprived in education, 61.0% in health and 70.4% in standard of living. Based on location, the study indicated that the women in the medium and high density areas are mostly deprived in the different dimensions of poverty. When the poverty cut off K= 1, poverty incidence is 94% and 51.7% of the women were multidimensional poor as against 28% poverty incidence and 19.6% poor women when k=3 using the Alkire-Foster Multidimensional methodology. This implies that when women are deprived in at least one dimension; 51.7% are multidimensional poor. More than half of the respondents (51.0%) were categorized as moderately poor, 26.0% were abject poor while 23.2% were non-poor. This study revealed high poverty levels among women in Ibadan South West Local Government Area. Deprivation in standard of living and health in the three areas could be improved upon through the concerted effort of the government with appropriate ministries by initiating more productive and empowerment programs to improve their purchasing power and disseminating educative information that will improve their nutritional status through health talks to reduce the level of multidimensional poverty in urban locations respectively. JEL Classifications: D33, J16, N37 Keywords: Multidimensional poverty, women, Alkire and Foster, INTRODUCTION Poverty refers to an undesirable state which endangers life, and considering its universal occurrence, it is referred as the principal developmental challenge of many nations across the globe over [...]

The role of social norms in forming aspirations is very important in developing countries where the women are mainly confined within the household. This has created a lack of demand for education among adolescent girls and a tendency to marry early. While governments have tried to remove gender disparity by increasing educational infrastructure for girls, it is well acknowledged that changing the sticky mindset is much more difficult and designing policies for this is a huge challenge. This paper tries to address this issue and estimates the impact of a celebrated conditional cash transfer (CCT), named Kanyashree Prakalpa (KP), on the aspirations of adolescent girls in West Bengal, India. KP, the conditional cash transfer scheme in West Bengal, India offers INR 25,000 (equivalent to US$330) to all girls who continue their education and remain unmarried till their 18th birthday. The study involves the use of both quantitative (like propensity score matching) and qualitative methods to establish that the CCT, through financial inclusion of adolescent girls, created a significant improvement in their aspiration scores. On the basis of a primary survey on 1050 households situated in three selected districts of the state, the study compares the aspiration scores of beneficiaries of the scheme, with those not availing the program after propensity score matching between the treatment and control groups. The study shows that the CCT, which was intended to prevent underage marriage and dropout among adolescent girls between thirteen to eighteen actually managed to change their mindset and enabled them to dream beyond marriage and envisage a future where they would be studying or working at the age of twenty five. The qualitative analysis complemented the quantitative results and found that KP eased the internal constraints of the adolescent girls through giving them access to their very own money in their bank account and this helped them to dream big. This paper, unlike other impact evaluations of CCTs, traces the impact of a aptly designed economic instrument of CCT on the mindsets of beneficiaries rather than economic outcomes. Though the pathway is essentially economic, it succeeded in assuaging a profound social and cultural barrier, thus offering new windows for policy makers in any developing country. JEL Classificatios: J16, J1, J18 Keywords: Aspiration, Early marriage, Social norms, Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT), Propensity score matching Corresponding Author's Email address: dutta.arijita@gmail.com, INTRODUCTION Lack of aspirations and their impact on gender disparity is now an established theory. In developing countries like India, this lack of aspiration translates to a high proportion of [...]

This paper uses the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) modelling approach to study (1) the effects of negative output shocks on Bangladesh's following trading partners on Bangladesh's economy: the United States, China, Eurozone, India and Saudi Arabia (2) positive global oil price shocks. To represent Bangladesh's macroeconomics, the GVAR model contains four key macroeconomic variables as endogenous variables. They are (1) real gross domestic product (GDP), (2) real exchange rate, (3) short-term interest rates, and (4) inflation. The specified GVAR model is estimated using quarterly data from 32 countries/regions from 1993Q4 to 2016Q4. The findings of this paper are consistent with theoretical predictions that external shocks can and will be transmitted to an open economy operating under a fixed or managed floating exchange rate system. For example, quantitatively, if the real output of Bangladesh's trading partners' falls by 1%, its output will fall by 0.39%, while the inflation rate of Bangladesh's trading partners' rises by 1%, and Bangladesh's inflation rate will increase by 1.38%. Although the negative output shock of the US economy will not significantly affect the Bangladeshi economy, the negative output shock of the Chinese economy will have a negative and significant effect on the Bangladeshi economy. The negative output shock on the US economy has caused the real exchange rate of Bangladesh's currency to appreciate and raised its short-term interest rate, although it is not statistically significant. Contrarily, a negative output shock to China or other economies devalues the real exchange rate of the Bangladeshi currency, although it is not statistically significant. However, Bangladesh's interest rates have not responded to negative output shocks from its trading partners (except the United States and Saudi Arabia), and they are not statistically significant. One policy implication of Bangladesh's inflation being overly sensitive to external inflation shocks is that Bangladesh can and should make its currency exchange rate more flexible to protect its economy from external price shocks. Unexpectedly, the external oil price shock did not seem to have a significant impact on the Bangladeshi economy. One explanation is that the impact of foreign inflation on Bangladesh's economy may have reflected the impact of oil prices. JEL Classifications: E32, E52, F36, F40. Keywords: External Shocks, GVAR Modelling, Bangladesh Economy. (*) Corresponding Author's Email Address: akhtar.hossain@newcastle.edu.au., INTRODUCTION Bangladesh is a small, open economy. It is exposed to both domestic and foreign shocks. Hence, any general shock to the global economy (e.g. an oil price shock) is [...]

Several arguments have been raised about the tripartite relationship between capital inflows, trade openness and economic growth; and most especially on their role as economic stimulators. Despite the above, the role of capital inflows in the development process cannot be overemphasized since they ensure enhancement of technology transfer, efficiency and improvement in the quality of factor inputs. As alternative to aids and FDI, many West African countries embraced trade liberalisation policy with the belief that trade openness has the potential of enhancing economic growth by increasing the variety of intermediate inputs as well as the size of the domestic market. It is upon this premise that the current paper examines the individual, interactive and threshold effects of aid, FDI and trade openness on economic growth by employing panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) and mean group (MG) estimation techniques on 14 West African countries using datasets from 1980 through 2018. The PARDL is adopted because of its dynamic nature and ability to obtain both short and long-term effects, while mean group technique records the uniqueness of individual West Africa countries and examine their degrees of sensitivity to regional characteristics. The results revealed that long run relationship was observed and aid, FDI and trade openness positively enhanced output growth. Second, the interactive effect of aid, trade openness and FDI was negative, but strengthens the individual effects in the long run period. Third, an average financial flows threshold of 8.3 percent is required to spur output growth to equilibrium. Fourth, MG estimation affirms that it is only in Senegal that the coefficients of these financial flow variables were sensitive to regional characteristics. These are the major contributions to knowledge. Thus, the paper recommends the need to embrace medium-and long-term policy framework which focuses on channelling funds from aid towards infrastructural and human development in order to accelerate future output growth. More so, regional representatives should concentrate efforts towards shifting their exports from primary to secondary and tertiary products so as to increase the value of trade transactions to members. Lastly, regional macroeconomic policies aimed at improving economic integration and regional sensitivity among members should be considered. JEL Classifications: F1 - F2 - F43 - C23 Keywords: Aid - FDI - Trade - Economic Growth - PARDL Corresponding author's email address: matthew.ogbuagu@fuoye.edu.ng, INTRODUCTION The role of financial flows in the development process cannot be overemphasized because growth models were developed around the assumption of adequate and frequent flow of resources (Barro & [...]

In the past several decades, developing Asia has achieved outstanding growth rates in the globalization process. Unfortunately, this impressive growth in the emerging Asia seemly has not automatically brought about sufficient decent work for the expanding population. Particularly, temporary jobs are often claimed to be associated with lower remuneration and poor working conditions. Meanwhile, in developing Asia, where this problem is apparently acute, empirical research on this topic remains scarce. This paper attempts to fill this research gap by focusing on the interesting case of Pakistan. This research uses the Pakistani labor force survey 2008-2009. Only wage workers are kept for the analyses. The self-selection into wage workers and endogeneity associated with contract status are carefully considered. After doing different statistic tests, the control function method developed by Wooldridge (2015) appears to be the most relevant to investigate the wage differentials associated with contract status for Pakistani workers. The estimation shows that holding a fixed term written contract or no written contract instead of a long-term written contract could significantly reduce wages for Pakistani workers. However, the extent of wage inequality depends on how defining contract status. If we rely on the Pakistani national definition of fixed term contract, engaging in this job is likely to suffer the highest penalty in terms of hourly wage. Such a finding no longer holds once we refer to the international standard definition of fixed term contract. Besides, the wage gaps associated with contract status change if the monthly wage is the independent variable instead of hourly wage. These findings highlight the importance of a stable contractual arrangement and labor market regulation enforcement in tackling the wage penalty and assuring decent work for all in Pakistan. With a mega labor force and demographic dividend, Pakistan should prioritize job quality and equality to achieve inclusive and durable development and mitigate social instability. This study is a timely reply to the urgent demand for empirical evidence on contract-status-related wage differentials in Pakistan, serving as a reference for labor policymakers. JEL Classifications: J31, J41 Keywords: Wage gaps; contract status; long-term contract; fixed-term contract; non-written contract; Pakistan. Corresponding Author's Email Address: tnguyenhuu@em-normandie.fr, INTRODUCTION In the past several decades, developing Asia has achieved outstanding growth rates in the globalization process. Unfortunately, this impressive growth in the emerging Asia seemly has not automatically brought [...]

Deepening financial integration is important for developing economies especially in Africa, that accounts for less than 2% of the world's market capitalization. Financial integration facilitates risk sharing, aids the formation of larger markets which is beneficial to the firms and smoothens consumption inter-temporally. Financial integration will be enhanced through a well-developed financial sector that is all-inclusive of the economic agents in access to financial services at a low cost and at the most convenient time. The access to funds in an integrated market is further determined by the extent of financial knowledge acquired by the economic agents with respect to basic numeracy, interest compounding, understanding inflation and risk diversification. This paper examines the effect of increasing access to financial services and the level of knowledge of financial products on the financial integration of West African Monetary Zone. The ratio of total capital flows to GDP and interest rates on public debt were used in measuring financial integration while the measures of financial inclusion include the number of commercial bank branches, number of ATM machines available, Savings, number of account holders and credit to private sector. Data covering the period 1980--2020 were employed. Unit root test using Levin, Lin and chu t-test method and Im, et al statistics methods were employed while the cointegration test was conducted using the Wald t-test before the panel autoregressive distributed lag model estimation technique was used to estimate the models. The unit root test results revealed that three out of the ten variables were stationary at level whiles others were stationary at first difference. The Wald cointegration test shows that the two equations are cointegrated. The results from the study show that increasing the number of bank branches; the number of account holders; savings; credit to private sector and improvement in the level of financial knowledge with respect to financial services deepen financial integration of the West African Monetary Zone. The policy implication of the paper is that each economy's monetary authority and financial service providers must continue to advocate and institutionalise programmes that will deepen access to and knowledge of financial services, this will improve the extent of financial integration. JEL classifications: F36, E44 and C23 Keywords: Financial inclusion, financial literacy, financial integration, WAMZ panel autoregressive distributed lag model Contact author's email address: Email: oiwegbu@unilag.edu.ng, INTRODUCTION The capital and money market are very important markets which can promote sustained financial growth and development. The market is very important especially for developing economies in addressing its [...]

Among the Latin American countries, the Mexican economy has shown since the late 1990's one of the lowest rates of economic growth. This is perplexing, because of the persistency of the stagnation tendencies, and because of the rapid growth shown by its exports, especially to the US, that reached $370 billion in 2018. The poor economic performance has had adverse consequences in terms of unemployment, emigration, social conflict, and especially in terms of the losses of female and male youth employment. This paper seeks to explain the causes of Mexico's economic stagnation. The methodology consists of the estimation of cointegration equations that express per capita economic growth as a function of the growth of labor productivity, plus the growth of the female and male employment to population ratios. Additional equations were estimated to identify the variables that explain the growth of productivity and of employment ratios and to estimate the role of deindustrialization in economic stagnation. An analysis was made of the role of female employment on the mobilization of domestic savings, on the determination of the deficit in the trade account, and on the constraint exerted by the balance of payments on growth. The source of data was the World Bank's World Development Indicators. The results indicated that female employment is an important determinant of external solvency and contributes to overcoming the balance of payments constrain on economic growth. Another salient result is the negative impact of youth unemployment on labor productivity and the negative impact of the percentage of young women that neither study nor work on economic growth. The policy implications are related to the importance of promoting male and female employment with a view towards accelerating economic growth, and the need to establish measures to facilitate women's entry into the labor market. This would require the establishment of national networks of childcare centers, the expansion of early childhood education, improving the quality of education, and increasing wages. As well, policies must be implemented to promote the reindustrialization and reagriculturalization of the Mexican economy to obtain national self-sufficiency and security and impart dynamism to economic growth. JEL classifications: O11, O14, O16, O17, J48, J71 Keywords: economic growth, productivity, gender, youth unemployment Contact author's email address: luisrenecaceres@gmail.com, INTRODUCTION The Mexican economy has for several decades shown some of the lowest annual rates of economic growth per capita of Latin American countries, of about 1.5%. This is surprising [...]

The labor force constitutes a paramount factor of production in the realm of business operations. In the past, China's abundant labor force significantly boosted productivity for firms. However, as the demographic dividend gradually wanes, concerns have arisen regarding a scarcity of labor force, exacerbating worries about rising labor costs. Therefore, focusing on enhancing firms' labor investment efficiency becomes pivotal. Using a sample of A-stock listed firms in China from 2013 to 2020, we examine the impact of customer concentration on the labor investment efficiency of supplier firms. Prior literature provides mixed results regarding the effect of concentrated customers. They can act as a governance mechanism for reducing agency problems, thus, increasing investment efficiency. Conversely, agency problems are aggravated in suppliers with concentrated customers, consequently, reducing investment efficiency. Our results suggest that customer concentration reduces labor investment efficiency, and this effect is more pronounced when customers possess high bargaining power. Additionally, the mechanism analysis reveal that customer concentration leads to less accurate information disclosure, higher operating risk, and an incentive to 'empire building', reducing labor investment efficiency. The cross-sectional analysis reveals that customer concentration results in both over- and under-investment in labor, thereby reducing investment efficiency. In addition, we employ augmented models to rule out the possibility of a U-shaped relationship between customer concentration and labor investment efficiency. Furthermore, we adopt the instrumental variables approach as well as a two-stage regression model to address potential endogeneity concerns and mitigate the omitted variable concern. Our results hold after the robustness tests and endogeneity tests. The findings of this paper imply that firms should strategically diversify their customer bases, thereby reducing their reliance on a few large customers. Simultaneously, governments should actively encourage firms to broaden their customer base. It can help enhance labor investment efficiency by spreading the risks associated with customer concentration. Moreover, it is crucial to acknowledge that substantial customer bargaining power can negatively impact supplier firms. Thus, policymakers should promote antitrust regulations and fair trade practices to mitigate the high bargaining power of large customers. JEL Classifications: G31, E22, J20 Keywords: Customer concentration, Agency problems, Business risk, Labor investment efficiency, INTRODUCTION Labor constitutes a fundamental resource for firms' production and operational activities, holding significant implications for both macroeconomic growth and the competitiveness of micro-firms (Atanassov and Kim, 2009; Jung et [...]

Poverty remains a serious problem in Nigeria; women are among those mostly affected and are often deprived in many ways. This paper uses the multidimensional approach to examine poverty levels among women in Ibadan South West Local Government Area, Oyo State. Primary data was obtained from a sample of 393 women across the population density areas on socio-economic characteristics and poverty indicators (health, education and standard of living). The Alkire-Foster multidimensional approach was used to estimate the multidimensional poverty index (MPI) for the sampled women. The weights assigned to these poverty dimensions were generated using the multiple correspondence analysis. The MPI for each woman were categorized as abject poor (deprived in at least two dimensions), moderate poor (deprived in one dimension) and non-poor (not deprived in any dimension). The mean age of the women was 30.8[+ or -]6.7 years. One-third of the respondents were mostly artisans (30.0%) and traders (26.5%), and 52.2% had completed secondary education. About 23.0% of women were deprived in education, 61.0% in health and 70.4% in standard of living. Based on location, the study indicated that the women in the medium and high density areas are mostly deprived in the different dimensions of poverty. When the poverty cut off K= 1, poverty incidence is 94% and 51.7% of the women were multidimensional poor as against 28% poverty incidence and 19.6% poor women when k=3 using the Alkire-Foster Multidimensional methodology. This implies that when women are deprived in at least one dimension; 51.7% are multidimensional poor. More than half of the respondents (51.0%) were categorized as moderately poor, 26.0% were abject poor while 23.2% were non-poor. This study revealed high poverty levels among women in Ibadan South West Local Government Area. Deprivation in standard of living and health in the three areas could be improved upon through the concerted effort of the government with appropriate ministries by initiating more productive and empowerment programs to improve their purchasing power and disseminating educative information that will improve their nutritional status through health talks to reduce the level of multidimensional poverty in urban locations respectively. JEL Classifications: D33, J16, N37 Keywords: Multidimensional poverty, women, Alkire and Foster, INTRODUCTION Poverty refers to an undesirable state which endangers life, and considering its universal occurrence, it is referred as the principal developmental challenge of many nations across the globe over [...]

Since early years, humans are migrating to ensure their survival or to improve their socio-economic position in society. In Pakistan, internal migration has not been given proper attention in policy making. Consequently, government is facing problems in managing the challenges and opportunities posed by internal migration. The present study attempted to analyse socio-economic factors that play crucial role in a household's decision to migrate internally by using data of Labour Force Survey 2020-21. In the questionnaire of labour force survey, there is a specific section related to migration. The migration is defined as 'households that has moved from one district to another district or to different country', it excludes the migration within district. The logit regression has been used to estimate the model. It has been found that more educated people particularly having professional and technical education tends to migrate. The internal migration increases with age, but after certain level it tends to start declining. It has also concluded that employment in public sector (due to job security or provision of housing facilities) motivate people to internally migrate. People belonging to middle income families are more likely to migrate in comparison to rich or very poor. Study confirms that search of better job opportunities and family compulsions are major factors in internal voluntary migration. However, law and order situations emerge as a significant factor in forced migration. As the internal migration are much higher than international migration so there is need that role of internal migration may be recognised in reducing poverty, employment and socio-economic development. Unfortunately, there exists lack of policy on internal labour flows. Most the labour force is not even registered at migration destinations. It is very crucial to calculate value of domestic remittances. It will be helpful in devising the policy to improve the status of internal migrants by providing them targeted technical and vocational education training so that they can get better job opportunities in destination places. JEL Classifications: R23, I23, E24 Keywords: Internal Migration, Education, Employment, INTRODUCTION Since early years of human settlement, they have been migrating in search of food, shelter, to escape impacts of changing climate and due to overpopulation in a particular area. [...]

The Caribbean region faces a daunting challenge as it confronts the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to shed light on the intricate relationship between governance quality and the economic performance of Caribbean nations, especially in the context of a global health crisis. Our research method involves a panel-random effects model, which captures the effects of governance quality and the COVID-19 pandemic on economic growth. We utilize data from various Caribbean countries, considering six dimensions of governance quality, trade openness, inflation, investment, and human capital. This comprehensive approach ensures a nuanced understanding of the region's economic landscape during these turbulent times. Our findings expose a significant negative association between the various dimensions of governance and the ongoing pandemic crisis. Specifically, governance indicators such as voice and accountability, rule of law, political stability, and absence of violence, along with government effectiveness, emerge as positive catalysts for economic growth. On the contrary, the control of corruption and regulatory quality demonstrate a notable negative impact on growth. Furthermore, our research unveils that investment and human capital significantly contribute to boosting output growth in the Caribbean. Conversely, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, and trade openness is observed to be detrimental to economic growth. These findings corroborate existing empirical evidence on the governance-growth nexus, underscoring the complex interplay between governance and economic development. These results emphasize the urgency of long-term strategies to enhance governance quality in Caribbean countries. It is imperative to bolster the capacity of governments to address future epidemic episodes, recognizing the persistent threat of pandemics. Policymakers should prioritize measures that promote voice and accountability, rule of law, political stability, and government effectiveness while addressing corruption and regulatory quality issues. This research holds profound significance for both academics and policymakers, offering a pathway to stable and sustainable long-term economic growth and calling for proactive preparedness in the face of future global health challenges. It also invites further research in this critical area. JEL Classifications: F63, O10, C33, C01 Keywords: COVID-19, virus, governance quality, economic growth, Caribbean, panel-random effects model, INTRODUCTION The novel COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic has had a major impact on the economies in the Caribbean and elsewhere. This is reflected in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, [...]

Extant literature investigates on the determinants of NPL (non-performing loan) many a time, however, little is known on the relationship between economic uncertainty and NPL for any developing country. Historically, Bangladesh is suffering from high level of NPL in the banking sector. In addition to that, Bangladesh observes high level of macroeconomic uncertainty as characterized by high and volatile Gross Domestic Products and inflation, continuous exchange rate devaluations, and shallow financial markets. Motivated by this, we investigate the nexus between economic uncertainty and NPL for Bangladesh. Based on the data availability, we use the annual dataset covering 1990-2018. Furthermore, we use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model considering its benefit accommodating both I(0) and I(1) variables. The empirical results show that there is positive relationship between economic uncertainty and NPL in the long run. The results are robust to the alternative measures of economic uncertainty and specifications. Consistent with the expectation, financial development carries a negative sign on the asset quality albeit the effect of economic uncertainty is actually pronounced (both the size and significance changes) in the augmented models. Key policy implication of this study is that government should formulate well anchored, rule-based policies to reduce inflation and interest related uncertainties. With a rule-based policy (for example, inflation targeting), people believe that central bank can achieve its targets. Government should adopt floating exchange rate regime that will adjust the external shocks well via exchange rates. In addition to this, government can monitor, and regulate stock market so that uncertainty in stock market is reduced. Finally, monetary and fiscal policies should be communicated well to the people. Thus, it is possible to reduce asymmetric information among the people, which may reduce economic uncertainty, and thus reduce NPL. JEL Classifications: E44, G28, E58 Keywords: Non-performing loan, economic uncertainty, Bangladesh evidence., INTRODUCTION Given the persistent and rising Non-performing loans (NPL) in Bangladesh since 1990, we are motivated to study whether economic uncertainty, as the key macroeconomic factor, lead to systematic development [...]

This paper takes a closer look at the well-researched topic of the determinants of health expenditure. However, as an improvement over previous studies, the current study tested the cost disease hypothesis in the healthcare sector in sub--Saharan Africa to assess the sector's productivity. The cross-sectional units in the current study comprise forty-eight sub-Saharan African countries; spanning the period 2000 to 2020. The data was sourced from two main sources; namely, World Development Indicators and the ILOSTAT. The main variable of interest (Baumol variable) was constructed using a combination of various variables. The methodology relied on several econometric techniques i.e., fixed effect, random effects and two-stage least square estimations. The growth rate of gross fixed capital formation was used to control for the potential reverse causation between the growth rate of health expenditure per capita and the Baumol variable. Based on the empirical results from the various estimations, it appears that there is some evidence of the presence of the cost disease in the healthcare sector of sub--Saharan Africa. This effect became stronger when the endogeneity in the model was taken into consideration. However, this effect became greatly diminished after the growth rate of GDP per capita and the growth of the price level were introduced in the model. The statistical significance of the growth rate of these variables reinforces their important roles in the determination of the levels and growth in health expenditure. The confirmation of the basic Baumol model in determining the growth of health expenditure suggests that the growth of health expenditure in sub-Saharan Africa might be a result of health workers' wages outstripping productivity in the sector. This suggests that the inelastic nature of the demand for health care is the main driver of the growth of health expenditure; thus might not be reflected in improved health care. Furthermore, policymakers need to consider changes in the price level as it may deflate the real value of the budgetary amount. JEL Classifications: C12; C23; I10; O41 Keywords: Health Expenditure, Unbalanced growth, sub--Saharan Africa panel., INTRODUCTION In the discussions of the determinants of health expenditure, income is an important contributor to the levels of health expenditure (Ekpenyong, 2022). However, some underlying conditions might be driving [...]

This study explores the finance-specific factors that help domestic companies operating in Thailand receive foreign direct investment (FDI) related to mergers and acquisitions (M&A). The three main objectives of this paper are to: analyse whether the firms receiving FDI differ from those that do not; identify significant finance-specific determinants that make Thai companies more likely to receive foreign investment; and explore the heterogeneity (different responses to investment decisions) at the firm-level, and the impact of financial constraints. This research makes use of the operational and financial data of both listed and unlisted Thai companies over the 2012-20 period and finds that larger as well as younger firms draw more foreign attention and have a higher probability of receiving M&A type of FDI. Moreover, companies with substantial intangible assets attract more investments from abroad. These findings have practical implications for business policies related to the accumulation of intangible assets. Specifically, developing flexible formal/informal linkages with potential M&A partners is key to promoting M&A-type FDI. Keywords: Productivity, intangible capital, multinational firms, foreign direct investment, mergers and acquisitions., 1. Introduction For most developing and emerging countries, foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a significant role in the development process, although the exact benefits differ according to the host country's [...]

This study aims to empirically explore the nexus between foreign direct investment (FDI) and other factors for global value chain (GVC) participation (backward and forward) in Vietnam, a transitional economy. The estimation shows that the economic size and market development of Vietnam and its trading partners are the main determinants of the nation's GVC participation. Inward FDI flows into the country have a positive impact on its GVC participation in both forward and backward linkages. Geographical distance is an impediment to Vietnam's backward GVC participation, whilst engagement in free trade agreements is advantageous to its GVC participation in both backward and forward linkages. We find that the logistics performance of Vietnam and its trading partners also positively affects the country's GVC participation. The paper provides policy implications for Vietnam to better use FDI and other factors to enhance its GVC participation, such as by attracting large supplier firms in upstream industries across the multinational enterprises' (MNEs) value chains, promoting trade liberalization and improving logistical efficiency. Keywords: Vietnam, global value chains (GVCs), foreign direct investment (FDI)., 1. Introduction Research by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) (2013) has estimated that about 80 per cent of global trade (in terms of gross exports) is [...]