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China's pulp and paper industry (CPPI) has been always the main carbon emission source in recent years. However, the analysis on influencing factors of carbon emissions from this industry is insufficient. To address the issue, the CO 2 emissions from CPPI are estimated in the period of 2005-2019, the driving factors of CO 2 emissions are investigated by the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, the decoupling state of economic growth and CO 2 emissions is determined by Tapio decoupling model, and finally, future CO 2 emissions are predicted under four scenarios by the STIRPAT model to explore the potential of carbon peaking. The results show that CPPI exhibits a rapid increase and a fluctuating downward trend in CO 2 emissions during the period of 2005-2013 and 2014-2019, respectively. The main promoting and inhibiting factors to the increase of CO 2 emission are per capita industrial output value and energy intensity, respectively. There are five decoupling states of CO 2 emissions and economic growth during the study period, and the CO 2 emissions exhibit a weak decoupling state with the industrial output value growth in most years of the study period. It is very difficult to realize the carbon peaking goal by 2030 under the baseline and fast development scenarios. Therefore, efficient low carbon and strong low-carbon development policies are necessary and urgent for the realization of carbon peaking goal and the sustainable development of CPPI., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)