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Natural climate solutions (NCS) offer immediate and cost-effective ways to tackle the climate crisis by transforming atmospheric carbon to soil carbon or avoiding greenhouse gas emissions. However, the climate mitigation potential and economic costs of NCS for cropping systems in China remain inconclusive. The major objectives of this study are (i) to estimate the NGHG reduction potential across Chinese main cropping systems caused by NCS, (ii) to quantify the economic costs of adopting optimal management with different abatement potentials. The Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model was used to estimate the NGHG, including SOC sequestration, N 2 O emissions, and CH 4 emissions. After calibration, we ran the DNDC model with derived data at municipality-level. We estimated the NGHG under current management, adopting optimal management individually, and integrated optimal management to project the maximum NGHG reduction potential caused by NCS. We used the marginal abatement cost method to estimate the economic cost. The four natural climate solutions, N fertilization management (NFM), straw returning management (SRM), tillage management (TM), and rice irrigation management (RIM) can reduce national NGHG in main cropping systems by approximately 118.8 Tg CO 2 -eq, 116.3 Tg CO 2 -eq, 35.2 Tg CO 2 -eq, and 74.4 Tg CO 2 -eq, respectively. The integrated optimal management may potentially reduce NGHG by 256.9 Tg CO 2 -eq, equivalent to 90.2% of current NGHG, and 80% of which can be realized at the price of CN¥ 285 (Mg CO 2 -eq)−1. We further identify the priority NCS for different crops and regions and conclude that nitrogen fertilization management should be the priority NCS at the national level. Our findings highlight the great potential of NGHG reduction by adopting NCS precisely and the importance of optimizing agricultural management as a whole, and they will help policy makers to develop smart-agriculture in China. [Display omitted] • Estimating net greenhouse gas emissions (NGHG) reduction potentials of agriculture. • IPCC recommended tier 3 method was applied for seven cropping systems in China. • The integrated optimal management may potentially reduce NGHG by 256.9 Tg CO 2 -eq. • 80% of NGHG mitigation can be realized at the price of CN¥ 285 (Mg CO 2 -eq)−1. • The priority NCS was identified for different crops and regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The responses of grain yield and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to climate warming in rice paddies are serious concerns for both global food security and climate change mitigation. However, the impact of free-air temperature increase (FATI) on grain yield and methane (CH 4) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions remains unclear for one of the most globally significant rice production practices: the double rice cropping system. Here, we conducted a two-year field experiment to examine the effect of FATI by infrared heaters on grain yield and CH 4 and N 2 O emissions in a double rice field in subtropical China. FATI increased rice canopy temperature by 2.0 °C and soil temperature by 1.2 °C on average but had no effect on either early or late rice yield production. FATI did not affect CH 4 emissions, but significantly increased N 2 O emissions in both the early and late rice seasons. Averaged across two years, N 2 O emissions increased by 0.3 kg ha−1 and 0.7 kg ha−1 in the warmed plots for the early and late rice seasons, respectively. Consequently, FATI enhanced the global warming potential (GWP) and GHG intensity (i.e., yield scaled GWP) in the double rice cropping system. In addition, warming increased the abundance of ammonia-oxidising bacteria, ammonia-oxidising archaea, and a nitrite reductase gene (nirS), but decreased that of a nitrous oxide reductase gene (nosZ). Our results indicate that warming by FATI does not affect grain yield and CH 4 emissions but stimulates N 2 O emissions in the double rice cropping system and therefore promotes a potential positive feedback with future climate warming. • Free-air temperature increase (FATI) with infrared heater was performed in a double rice field. • Moderate warming by FATI had no significant effect on rice yield. • Moderate warming by FATI did not significantly affect CH 4 emissions. • Moderate warming by FATI stimulated N 2 O emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]