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In this study, soil moisture retrievals of the combined active–passive ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) soil moisture product are assimilated into the Noah-MP land surface model over Europe using a one-dimensional ensemble Kalman filter and an 18-yr study period. The performance of the data assimilation (DA) system is evaluated by comparing it with a model-only experiment (at in situ sites) and by assessing statistics of innovations and increments as DA diagnostics (over the entire domain). For both assessments, we explore the impact of three design choices, resulting in the following insights. 1) The magnitude of the assumed observation errors strongly affects the skill improvements evaluated against in situ stations and internal diagnostics. 2) Choosing between climatological or monthly cumulative distribution function matching as the observation bias correction method only has a marginal effect on the in situ skill of the DA system. However, the internal diagnostics suggest a more robust system parameterization if the observations are rescaled monthly. 3) The choice of atmospheric reanalysis dataset to force the land surface model affects the model-only skill and the DA skill improvements. The model-only skill is higher with input from the MERRA-2 than with input from the ERA5 reanalysis, resulting in larger DA skill improvements for the latter. Additionally, we show that the added value of the DA strongly depends on the quality of the satellite retrievals and land cover, with the most substantial soil moisture skill improvements occurring over croplands and skill degradation occurring over densely forested areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to improve understanding of how EU citizens' left-right political positions and ideological polarization on climate change affect their views on both agriculture and diet in the context of climate change policy. It uses the methods of survey research and quantitative analyses of the data (principal components and regression analysis). The work combines the Farm- and Fork-related branches of Eurobarometer 93.2 (2020) and focuses on citizens' responses to a more climate-friendly agriculture and their ideas about 'eating a healthy and sustainable diet'. The analysis revealed different degrees of citizen support for a more climate-friendly agriculture and climate-friendly dietary options (including meat reduction). Citizens' left-right political position correlated negatively with support for a more climate-friendly agriculture and support for climate-friendly dietary options, but only in the Northwestern European countries. In these countries, the expected positive correlations between level of education and pro-environmental variables were found, but these correlations were not observed among the right-leaning participants. However, the positive correlation between support for a more climate-friendly agriculture and support for climate-friendly dietary options was less strongly affected by left-right political positions. Hence, public opinion is moving in the direction of EU climate policy over time; however, citizens did not fully acknowledge the priority of meat reduction in this context. Political and ideological polarization has seriously interfered with attempts to promote a more climate-friendly agriculture (Farm) and changes in dietary thinking including meat reduction (Fork). To promote these changes, more work must be done on the role of cultural identities in relation to climate issues. Yet, EU citizens showed an increasing support for more climate-friendly agriculture, which correlated positively with support for climate-friendly dietary options across the left-right political spectrum. Science-based information regarding climate risks and/or loyalty to local farmers may play a role in shaping these opinions. The priority of meat reduction needs considerably more attention to achieve the EU's climate objectives. For citizens, both nutritional (health) and environmental (i.e. climate change, as well as species decline and farm animal welfare) reasons can be strong motivating factors to consider meat reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although several studies have concluded that excess winter deaths are not a suitable indicator of cold-related health impacts, the investigation of temporal fluctuation in mortality across many European countries could provide an insight into the seasonal variation of deaths at different climatic conditions. We investigated the evolution over time of the Excess Winter Deaths Index (EWDI) and the Summer-to-Winter Deaths ratio (S/W) for the period 1960–2018 and the temporal fluctuation of the Heating and Cooling Degree Days indices for the period 1979–2020. We found a clear spatial pattern of EWDI with statistically significant decreasing trends in Mediterranean countries and increasing trends in Nordic countries. On the other hand, S/W index shown increasing trends in Mediterranean region and decreasing trends in Nordic countries. Statistical analysis of Heating Degree Days index showed significant decreasing trends for all European countries, probably due to the appearance of milder winters. Also, the values of Cooling Degree Days index exhibited a statistically significant upward trend for Mediterranean countries, mainly due to increased frequency of warmer summers, as a result of climate change. This study shows that the differences in seasonal variation of mortality between European countries are likely to disappear, as the climate gets warmer. A possible explanation for our findings is that climate change already brings milder winters and hotter summers to the Mediterranean countries, while in the Nordic countries global warming causes less severe winters and more pleasant summers as shown from Heating and Cooling Degree Days analysis. In addition to providing a basis to investigate potential effects of global warming on human mortality, the findings of this study are likely to be crucial for climate change policy and developing relevant adaptation strategies in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robinia pseudoacacia is one of the most frequent non‐native species in Europe. It is a fast‐growing tree of high economic and cultural importance. On the other hand, it is an invasive species, causing changes in soil chemistry and light regime, and consequently altering the plant communities. Previously published models developed for the potential distribution of R. pseudoacacia concerned 2070, and were based mainly on data from Western and Central Europe; here we extended these findings and included additional data from Eastern Europe. To fill the gap in current knowledge of R. pseudoacacia distribution and improve the reliability of forecasts, we aimed to (i) determine the extent to which the outcome of range modeling will be affected by complementing R. pseudoacacia occurrence data with sites from Central, Southeastern, and Eastern Europe, (ii) identify and quantify the changes in the availability of climate niches for 2050 and 2070, and discuss their impacts on forest management and nature conservation. We showed that the majority of the range changes expected in 2070 will occur as early as 2050. In comparison to previous studies, we demonstrated a greater eastward shift of potential niches of this species and a greater decline of potential niches in Southern Europe. Consequently, future climatic conditions will likely favor the occurrence of R. pseudoacacia in Central and Northeastern Europe where this species is still absent or relatively rare. There, controlling the spread of R. pseudoacacia will require monitoring sources of invasion in the landscape and reducing the occurrence of this species. The expected effects of climate change will likely be observed 20 years earlier than previously forecasted. Hence we highlighted the urgent need for acceleration of policies aimed at climate change mitigation in Europe. Also, our results showed the need for using more complete distribution data to analyze potential niche models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research and real-world processes suggest that effective climate change mitigation policies are not feasible without at least a certain degree of public support. Hence, we investigate the link between existing domestic energy policies and individual policy instrument preferences in 21 European countries. We assume a policy feedback perspective and, thus, start from the idea that the current domestic energy context influences what future policies are possible and preferred by citizens. High political trust and strong climate change attitudes are expected to strengthen this relationship. Our results do not lend support to a general link between existing policies and future policy preferences. However, we find evidence of a positive policy feedback in individuals with strong climate change attitudes and/or high levels of political trust, which, depending on each country's current energy policy, either hinders or facilitates the energy transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weighting of impacts is frequently applied to enable the prioritization of life cycle assessment (LCA) results for the support of decision making. Most Distance-to-Target (DtT) weighting approaches consider policy targets, whereas potential is seen in the weighting of environmental impacts on a more scientific basis. This study aims at the comparison of science-based (SB) to policy-based (PoB) DtT weighting approaches as well as the application in a comparative case study for the domestic footprint of the European Union. The developed approaches integrated SB targets from ten environmental impact categories into the DtT weighting method of the Ecological Scarcity Method in an effort to derive SB eco-factors. In addition to SB eco-factors based on existing weighting factors for Europe from the literature, weighting factors for the European Union were developed. The application of the eco-factors in the case study showed that the SB approach led to three times higher absolute weighting results in contrast to PoB results. SB weighting was dominated by the impact category climate change with the strictest weighting factors in all approaches considered and a share of 87–92%. For the remaining impact categories, common PoB weighting factors were generally stricter. PoB results showed a more balanced distribution, with shares of 64% for climate change, 10% for photochemical ozone formation, 7% for acidification, and 7% for terrestrial eutrophication. Science-based targets can not replace conventional PoB weighting approaches but should be integrated into the weighting step to provide a more comprehensive view of the environmental performance of product systems. SB weighting results are an additional source of information on environmental sustainability regarding environmental carrying capacity that can broaden the basis for decision making. • Comparison of targets based on science and policy via distance-to-target weighting. • Development of weighting sets for comparative application to EU domestic footprint. • Science-based results are dominated by the impact category climate change. • Lower results in policy-based weighting due to less strict climate policy targets. • Analysis of EU policy regarding effectiveness to stay within carrying capacities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Union has pioneered the adoption of binding greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets and measures to address the climate change challenge for more than a decade. Amongst them, the European Union Emissions Trading System plays a central role. This article addresses the evolution of European climate policies, from the first emission reduction targets that were assumed under the Kyoto Protocol to the recent adoption of the 2030 climate an energy framework. Due to its importance, special attention is paid to the European Union emissions trading system, an essential tool to meet these targets at regional level and a cornerstone of European climate policies, now working for more than ten years. In this context, the European Union emissions have significantly decreased, although the effort ahead is, without any doubt, still remarkable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comparative policy studies face a number of methodological challenges where conceptualization of the object of comparison-policy output-is the most fundamental. On the basis of three common approaches of the study of policy output, we reconsider this widely applied concept and propose a refined measure as a function of both density (number of policy instruments) and intensity (content of policy instruments). We theoretically derive six policy-intensity measures (objectives, scope, integration, budget, implementation, and monitoring), which are used for weighting national policy instruments on an Index of Climate Policy Activity. The article presents an empirical application of this measurement approach. Focusing on national climate policy instruments in the energy production sector in Austria, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we investigate changes in the countries' policy portfolios from 1998 to 2010. The article demonstrates that our Index of Climate Policy Activity provides a reliable and valid measurement for national policy output that can be applied for comparative analyses of policy output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]