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The "Dual Carbon" initiative is a two-stage carbon reduction goal proposed by China, with significant implications for global climate change mitigation. This article examines the impact of the "Dual Carbon" strategy on China's forestry development and explores how to leverage this strategy to facilitate the transformation and advancement of the forestry sector. Current review indicated that forestry has the advantage of achieving higher emission reduction targets at a low cost. Starting with an overview of the "Dual Carbon" strategy, this paper analyzes the carbon sequestration potential of plants and soil, and the challenges and opportunities faced by forestry development under this framework. Furthermore, we outline implementation pathways for forestry development, aiming to provide insights for the progress of China's forestry sector. Overall, it should be noted that the priority is to vigorously develop timber resources, and we also need to vigorously develop and protect forestry talent with the support of China's policies. By trapping into the carbon storage capabilities and leveraging carbon trading mechanisms of forests, a favorable ecological environment can be created, thus achieving the goal of carbon neutrality. Highlights: • Forest development and its carbon sinks, attributed to plant and soil have the potential in carbon sequestration process, thus helping China achieve carbon neutrality. • The supply of forest products and the balance of economic growth and environmental protection are the key difficulties under the "Dual Carbon" strategy. • Trading forest carbon sinks can boost China's sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Global climate change is one of the major challenges facing the world today, and forests play a crucial role as significant carbon sinks and providers of ecosystem services in mitigating climate change and protecting the environment. China, as one of the largest developing countries globally, owns 60% of its forest resources collectively. Evaluating the carbon sequestration cost of collective forests not only helps assess the contribution of China's forest resources to global climate change mitigation but also provides important evidence for formulating relevant policies and measures. Results: Over the past 30 years, the carbon sequestration cost of collective forests in China has shown an overall upward trend. Except for coastal provinces, southern collective forest areas, as well as some southwestern and northeastern regions, have the advantage of lower carbon sequestration costs. Furthermore, LSTM network predictions indicate that the carbon sequestration cost of collective forests in China will continue to rise. By 2030, the average carbon sequestration cost of collective forests is projected to reach 125 CNY per ton(= 16.06 Euros/t). Additionally, there is spatial correlation in the carbon sequestration cost of collective forests. Timber production, labor costs, and labor prices have negative spatial spillover effects on carbon sequestration costs, while land opportunity costs, forest accumulation, and rural resident consumption have positive spatial spillover effects. Conclusion: The results of this study indicate regional disparities in the spatial distribution of carbon sequestration costs of collective forests, with an undeniable upward trend in future cost growth. It is essential to focus on areas with lower carbon sequestration costs and formulate targeted carbon sink economic policies and management measures to maximize the carbon sequestration potential of collective forests and promote the sustainable development of forestry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial ecosystems play a critical role in the global carbon cycle and climate change mitigation. Studying the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon sink and the driving mechanisms at the regional scale provides an important basis for ecological restoration and ecosystem management. Taking the Dongting Lake Basin as an example, we assessed the carbon sinks of forest and shrub from 2000 to 2020 based on the maps of biomass that were obtained by remote sensing, and analyzed the dynamics of carbon sinks that were contributed by different biomass carbon density levels of constant forest and shrub and new afforestation over the past two decades. The results showed that the carbon sink of forest and shrub in the Dongting Lake Basin grew rapidly from 2000 to 2020: carbon sink increased from 64.64 TgC between 2000 and 2010, to 382.56 TgC between 2010 and 2020. The continuous improvement of biomass carbon density has made a major contribution to carbon sink, especially the carbon density increase in low carbon density forests and shrubs. Carbon-dense forests and shrubs realized their contribution to carbon sink in the second decade after displaying negative carbon sink in the first decade. Carbon sink from new afforestation increased 61.16% from the first decade to the second decade, but the contribution proportion decreased. The overall low carbon density of forest and shrub in the Dongting Lake Basin and their carbon sink dynamics indicated their huge carbon sequestration potential in the future. In addition to continuously implementing forest protection and restoration projects to promote afforestation, the improvement of ecosystem quality should be paid more attention in ecosystem management for areas like Dongting Lake Basin, where ecosystems, though severely degraded, are important and fragile, to realize their huge carbon sequestration potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The 57.00% of the Yangtze River Economic Belt area exhibited a significant increase in annual NPP. • The response of NPP on climate factors was nonlinear, with greater sensitivity to temperature. • The impact of topographic factors on NPP changes had a threshold effect. Net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems serves as a crucial carbon sink, playing a significant role in mitigating climate change. This study, focusing on the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), a key area for both economic development and ecological conservation in China, evaluates the temporal and spatial changes in regional NPP and its responses to climatic factors against the backdrop of global change. Utilizing long-term NPP and meteorological grid data from 1981 to 2017, we analyzed the annual change patterns of NPP and its linear and nonlinear responses to climatic factors using copula functions. Our findings indicate that 57.00 % of the YREB has experienced a significant increase in NPP, with the most substantial decreases observed in Shanghai and its surrounding areas (P < 0.05). Temperature emerged as the primary climatic driver, positively correlating with NPP changes in over half of the study area (P < 0.05). Moreover, the nonlinear response of NPP to temperature and precipitation underscores the complex interactions between these factors, revealing a sensitivity to temperature variations that surpasses that to precipitation. The study also highlights the influence of solar radiation and topographic factors, with a significant positive correlation between NPP and solar radiation observed in 15.85 % of the area (P < 0.05). The practical significance of these findings lies in their implications for regional ecological management and climate resilience strategies. The positive correlation between temperature and NPP underscores the potential for targeted temperature management to optimize carbon sequestration across the YREB. Furthermore, the identified nonlinear responses and the role of solar radiation and topography in influencing NPP offer valuable insights for the formulation of adaptive strategies that enhance ecosystem productivity and contribute to achieving carbon neutrality goals. By elucidating the dynamics of NPP in response to a range of environmental factors, this study provides a foundation for informed decision-making in ecological conservation and climate change mitigation efforts within the YREB and similar regions globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge on relationship and determinants of water and carbon dioxide (CO 2) exchange is crucial to land managers and policy makers especially for the desertified land restoration. However, there remains highly uncertain in terms of water use and carbon sequestration for artificial plantation in desert. Here, continuous water and carbon fluxes were measured using eddy covariance (EC) in conjunction with hydrometeorological measurements over an artificial C4 shrub, Haloxylon ammodendron (C. A. Mey.) Bunge, from July 2020 to 2021 in Tengger Desert, China. Throughout 2021, evapotranspiration (ET) was 189.5 mm, of which 85% (150 mm) occurred during growing season, that was comparable with the summation of precipitation (132.2 mm), dew (33.5 mm) and potential other sources (e.g. deep subsoil water). This ecosystem was a strong carbon sink with net ecosystem production (NEP) up to 446.4 g C m−2 yr−1, much higher than surrounding sites. Gross primary production (GPP, 598.7 g C m−2 yr−1) in this shrubland was comparable with that of other shrublands, whereas ecosystem respiration (Re, 152.3 g C m−2 yr−1) was lower. Random Forest showed that environmental factors can explain 71.56% and 80.07% variation of GPP and ET, respectively. Interestingly, environmental factors have divergent effect on water and carbon exchange, i.e., soil hydrothermic factors (soil moisture content and soil temperature) determine the magnitude and seasonal pattern of ET and Re, while aerodynamics factors (net radiation, atmospheric temperature and wind speed) determine GPP and NEP. As such, divergent response of abiotic factors resulted in the decoupling of water and carbon exchange. Our results suggest that H. ammodendron is a suitable species for large-scale afforestation in dryland given its low water use but high carbon sequestration. Therefore, we infer that artificial planting H. ammodendron in dryland could provide an opportunity for climate change mitigation, and the long-term time series data is needed to confirm its sustainable role of carbon sequestration in the future. • Water and carbon exchange over an artificial C4 shrub in desert were determined. • Evapotranspiration (ET) was comparable with precipitation plus dew. • Positive and high net ecosystem production (NEP) suggest the strong carbon sink for it. • Gross primary production (GPP) was comparable with other shrubs but ecosystem respiration lower. • Abiotic factors have divergent effects on water (ET) and carbon fluxes (NEP and GPP). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rational allocation of carbon quotas is the fundamental premise for the orderly operation of carbon markets. To achieve the set target of carbon peak by 2030, there is an urgent need to establish China's 2030 provincial carbon quota allocation scheme. Although some proposed schemes have been formulated, there are problems with the methods used for carbon emission forecasting and evaluating the rationality of a proposed allocation scheme. This study aimed to optimize carbon emission forecast by incorporating terrestrial carbon sinks into the mechanism for building China's 2030 provincial carbon emission quota allocation schemes. Aquila Optimizer's Double Support Vector Regression (AO-based TWSVR) that has the advantages in solving problems associated with small sample size, nonlinear and high-dimensional pattern recognition with fast training speed and insensitivity to noise was adopted to predict the net carbon emission. The results show that the application of AO-based TWSVR model allows satisfactory forecast of the net carbon emission in China for the period from 2021 to 2035. This allowed terrestrial carbon sequestration being incorporated into the mechanism to formulate China's 2030 provincial carbon quota allocation schemes. Comparison of the three provincial carbon quota allocation schemes using social network analysis suggests that the equity-based carbon quota allocation scheme is more suitable for China's national conditions compared to the efficiency-based scheme and the combined principle-based scheme. The findings obtained from this study have implications for optimizing the scheme of China's 2030 provincial carbon quota allocation. [Display omitted] • AO-based TWSVR model was used to optimize carbon emission forecasting in China. • This allows satisfactory forecast of the net carbon emission from 2021 to 2035. • Three schemes were formulated for China's 2030 provincial carbon quota allocation. • Social network analysis was used to evaluate the rationality of these schemes. • The equity-based scheme is more suitable for China's national conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]