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Background: Against the grim background of declining intention to have children, the ravages of COVID-19 have pushed China and the world into a more complex social environment. To adapt to the new situation, the Chinese government implemented the three-child policy in 2021. Objective: COVID-19 pandemic indirectly affects the country's internal economic development, employment, fertility plans or intention, and other major issues related to the people's livelihood, while undermining the stable operation of society. This paper explores the question that will COVID-19 pandemic affect Chinese people's intention to have a third child. And What are the relevant factors inside? Method: The data in this paper are from the Survey released by the Population Policy and Development Research Center of Chongqing Technology and Business University (PDPR-CTBU), including 10,323 samples from mainland China. This paper uses the logit regression model and KHB mediated effect model (a binary response model given by Karlson, Holm, and Breen) to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors on Chinese residents' intention to have a third child. Results: The results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic has a negative effect on Chinese residents' intention to have a third child. In-depth research on the mediating effect of KHB shows that COVID-19 pandemic will further inhibit residents' intention to have a third child by affecting their childcare arrangements, increasing their childcare costs, and increasing their exposure to occupational hazards. Contribution: This paper is more pioneering in focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the intention to have three children in China. The study provides empirical evidence for understanding the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on fertility intentions, albeit in the context of policy support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 31 May 2021, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed the policy that a couple can have three children, and rolled out more supportive measures to further optimize the fertility policies. However, while the Chinese government is further optimizing its fertility policy, the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 is raging around the world, which threatens the implementation of China's fertility optimization policy. Based on this, this paper firstly explores the impact of COVID-19 on women's fertility intentions. Secondly, based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, this paper constructs a structural equation model to quantitatively reveal the specific factors that affect women's fertility intentions under the epidemic, as well as their impact paths, and then puts forward corresponding suggestions for the government to solve the problem of fertility, aiming at delaying population aging and optimizing population structure. The research results show that: (1) COVID-19 lowers the fertility intentions of women of childbearing age. (2) During the pandemic, economic pressure emerged as the biggest factor affecting women's fertility intentions. The decline in income caused by the pandemic has become an important factor in preventing women from having children. (3) The conflict between work and childbearing is still an important factor affecting the fertility intentions of women of childbearing age. The government's provision of perfect childcare services and their strengthening of the protection of women's employment rights and interests will greatly reduce women's anxiety about childbearing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]