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In this paper, we forecast residential electricity consumption in Brazil considering the variability in consumption behavior in different regions. In order to do so, we use a bottom-up approach to estimate long-term electricity consumption that considers three technology-driven scenarios: one assuming reference efficiency development, another one based on the Brazilian government's predictions, and the third one assuming high efficiency. The results show an increase of residential electricity consumption due to the increasing appliance ownership rate, especially air conditioning, as well as the increasing number of households. In addition, it is shown that 96 TWh of electricity could be saved in the highest efficiency scenario due to significant efficiency gains between 2016 and 2050. Further, the results indicate the southeast of the country has the highest potential for consumption reduction: by 27% in the most efficient scenario. This work is the first to use a bottom-up approach to forecast the residential electricity consumption by region and by technology-driven scenarios in Brazil. With this methodology, it is possible to indicate which types of appliances should be targeted by policy makers when designing energy efficiency incentives. Hence, this model can be used as a roadmap to achieve the desired efficiency gains in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy is a crucial part of any economy and holds a central position in enhancing social development in the world. Energy consumption and the economy in Brazil have both increased in the past decade. In this paper, time series statistics from 1980 to 2017 will be used to analyze the relationship between real GDP per capita and energy consumption to will examine how energy use in the country affects economic growth using causality models. This is established through testing for stationarity using Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) test for trend stationarity. A cointegration relationship is found between the two variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Environmental impacts of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and internal combustion engine vehicles have been broadly studied and compared. However, there is scarce evidence of studies analyzing the potential effect of evolution key factors. The purpose of this study was to evaluate what would be the environmental impact of manufacturing BEVs and battery electric buses (BEBs) in Brazilian southeast, whereas vehicle mass reduction, material switching, energy consumption, battery improving, geographic adaptation of life cycle inventories, and electricity mix evolution effects are considered. Methods: The methodology was based on adapting a representative number of global Ecoinvent V.3.2 datasets to better represent local conditions and subsequently to include evolution parameters for a 2030 scenario. Thus, we were able to establish a comparison for BEVs and BEBs in 2015 and 2030 for Brazilian and global conditions. This study compared BEV and BEB production (one vehicle as comparison unit) and also well-to-wheel (WTW) stage (1 km as functional unit). The research envisioned mass reduction configurations for cars and buses in 2030. BEV analysis in 2030 includes two material switching scenarios: plastic and aluminum prototypes. Results and discussion: For one BEV as comparison unit, ozone depletion, human toxicity, metal depletion, and ecotoxicities displayed larger impacts for Brazilian cars, mostly due to material switching in the new prototypes, in spite of total mass reduction. In fact, neither the BEBs nor BEVs made in Brazil displayed a consistent environmental advantage over the global reference; and in fact, low production plants might cause larger impacts. Conclusions: Life expectancy increase is suggested to be more effective in reducing impacts than mass or energy consumption reduction. For the 2030 BEV, an unexpected burden shifting result appears. Ozone depletion increases for the Brazilian aluminum prototype since emissions arising from scrap treatment do have a significant impact, even though mass reduction was considered. Bus results portrayed a tendency for Brazilian bus to perform better than its global counterpart except for metal depletion, ecotoxicities, and ozone depletion. A large environmental contribution from treatment of mining residues is common for human toxicity and freshwater eutrophication, the most concerning categories. Large contributions from mining residues led us to conclude that in order to manufacture environmentally competitive BEBs and BEVs, either reduction of impacts on metal extraction, e.g., copper, magnesium, etc., or metal use decrease must be prioritized. Negative consequences of vehicle evolution are especially concerning for human health and bodies of water, and impact decrease will be unlikely, at least until 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]