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This study evaluates the representation of the composite-mean surface response to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in 28 CMIP6 models. Most models can reproduce the magnitude of the SLP response over the Arctic, although the simulated Arctic SLP response varies from model to model. Regarding the structure of the SLP response, most models exhibit a basin-symmetric negative Northern Annular Mode (NAM)-like response with a cyclonic Pacific SLP response, whereas the reanalysis shows a highly basin-asymmetric negative NAO-like response without a robust Pacific center. We then explore the drivers of these model biases and spread by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR). The results show that the polar cap temperature anomalies at 100 hPa (ΔT100) modulate the magnitude of both the Arctic SLP response and the cyclonic Pacific SLP response. Apart from ΔT100, the intensity and latitudinal location of the climatological eddy-driven jet in the troposphere also affect the magnitude of the Arctic SLP response. The compensation of model biases in these two tropospheric metrics and the good model representation of ΔT100 explain the good agreement between the ensemble mean and the reanalysis on the magnitude of the Arctic SLP response, as indicated by the fact that the ensemble mean lies well within the reanalysis uncertainty range and that the reanalysis mean sits well within the model distribution. The Niño-3.4 SST anomalies and North Pacific SST dipole anomalies together with ΔT100 modulate the cyclonic Pacific SLP response. In this case, biases in both oceanic drivers work in the same direction and lead to the cyclonic Pacific SLP response in models that are not present in the reanalysis. Significance Statement: Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) represent an important source of skill for forecasting winter weather on subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales. To what extent SSWs could be used to improve the prediction of surface weather depends on how well stratosphere–troposphere coupling associated with SSWs is represented in climate models. Therefore, we evaluate the representation of stratosphere–troposphere coupling associated with SSWs in 28 state-of-the-art climate models. The representation is found to diverge widely among climate models, and some are biased noticeably from the reanalysis. The models' spread and bias are largely driven by five major factors and can be reduced substantially by making bias corrections to these factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study presents (a) a 44‐year wintertime climatology of resolved gravity wave (GW) fluxes and forcing in the extratropical stratosphere using ERA5, and (b) their composite evolution around gradual (final warming) and abrupt (sudden warming) transitions in the wintertime circulation, focusing on lateral fluxes. The transformed Eulerian mean equations are leveraged to provide a glimpse of the importance of GW lateral propagation (i.e., horizontal propagation) toward driving the wintertime stratospheric circulation by analyzing the relative contribution of the vertical versus meridional flux dissipation. The relative contribution from lateral propagation is found to be notable, especially in the Austral winter stratosphere where lateral (vertical) momentum flux convergence provides a peak climatological forcing of up to −0.5 (−3.5) m/s/day around 60°S at 40–45 km altitude. Prominent lateral propagation in the wintertime midlatitudes also contributes to the formation of belts of GW activity in both hemispheres. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric Gravity Waves (GWs) are atmospheric disturbances created by processes like convection, thunderstorms, flow over topography, etc. These waves can have wavelengths as small as 1 km to as large as 1,000–2,000 km. Most atmospheric GWs are not resolved in coarse‐resolution climate models. As a result, they are represented in climate models using parameterizations, which are approximate models that can be subject to various idealizations. One such idealization is the assumption of pure vertical propagation of GWs. In this study, we use multidecadal records from ERA5 reanalysis—which combines a high‐resolution model with assimilated observations to produce a close‐to‐observed state of the atmosphere and resolves some of these GWs—to quantify the impact of this assumption on the mean state of the extratropical stratosphere. This is done by extracting GWs from ERA5 data, computing horizontal momentum fluxes carried by these waves, and comparing the net acceleration/deceleration provided by these fluxes on the peak winter stratospheric circulation and key episodes of abrupt changes in the circulation. Analysis using ERA5 reveals that horizontal propagation of GWs can be notable in the midlatitude stratosphere, highlighting the need to develop GW parameterizations that represent this essential property of atmospheric GWs. Key Points: Climatology of lateral fluxes from ERA5 shows substantial lateral propagation of gravity waves in both hemispheresContribution of both lateral and vertical GW fluxes toward zonal wind forcing is the same order of magnitudeAbrupt changes in GW forcing in the upper stratosphere around sudden stratospheric warmings persist even 20 days following the event [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is the main gateway for air transiting from the troposphere to the stratosphere and therefore impacts the chemical composition of the stratosphere. In particular, the cold-point tropopause, where air parcels encounter their final dehydration, effectively controls the water vapor content of the lower stratosphere. Given the important role of stratospheric water vapor for the global energy budget, it is crucial to understand the long-term changes in cold-point temperature and their impact on water vapor trends. Our study uses Global Navigation Satellite System – Radio Occultation (GNSS-RO) data to show that there has been no overall cooling trend of the TTL over the past 2 decades, in contrast to observations prior to 2000. Instead, the cold point is warming, with the strongest trends of up to 0.7 K per decade during boreal winter and spring. The cold-point warming shows longitudinal asymmetries, with the smallest warming over the central Pacific and the largest warming over the Atlantic. These asymmetries are anticorrelated with patterns of tropospheric temperature trends, and regions of strongest cold-point warming are found to show slight cooling trends in the upper troposphere. Overall, the here-identified warming of the cold point is consistent with model predictions under global climate change, which attribute the warming trends to radiative effects. The seasonal signals and zonal asymmetries of the cold-point temperature and height trends might be related to dynamical responses to enhanced upper-tropospheric heating, changing convection, or trends in the stratospheric circulation. Water vapor observations in the TTL show mostly positive trends consistent with cold-point warming for 2004–2021. We find a decrease in the amplitude of the cold-point temperature seasonal cycle by ∼ 7 % driving a reduction in the seasonal cycle in 100 hPa water vapor by 5 %–6 %. Our analysis shows that this reduction in the seasonal cycle is transported upwards together with the seasonal anomalies and has reduced the amplitude of the well-known tape recorder over the last 2 decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratosphere-to-troposphere transport results in the stratospheric intrusion (SI) of O 3 into the free troposphere through the folding of the tropopause. However, the mechanism of SI that influences the atmospheric environment through the cross-layer transport of O 3 from the stratosphere and free troposphere to the atmospheric boundary layer has not been elucidated thoroughly. In this study, an SI event over the North China Plain (NCP; 33–40° N, 114–121° E) during 19–20 May 2019 was chosen to investigate the mechanism of the cross-layer transport of stratospheric O 3 and its impact on the near-surface O 3 based on multi-source reanalysis, observation data, and air quality modeling. The results revealed a mechanism of stratospheric O 3 intrusion into the atmospheric environment induced by an extratropical cyclone system. The SI with downward transport of stratospheric O 3 to the near-surface layer was driven by the extratropical cyclone system, with vertical coupling of the upper westerly trough, the middle of the northeast cold vortex (NECV), and the lower extratropical cyclone, in the troposphere. The deep trough in the westerly jet aroused the tropopause folding, and the lower-stratospheric O 3 penetrated the folded tropopause into the upper and middle troposphere; the westerly trough was cut off to form a typical cold vortex in the upper and middle troposphere. The compensating downdrafts of the NECV further pushed the downward transport of stratospheric O 3 in the free troposphere; the NECV activated an extratropical cyclone in the lower troposphere; and the vertical cyclonic circulation governed the stratospheric O 3 from the free troposphere across the boundary layer top, invading the near-surface atmosphere. In this SI event, the average contribution of stratospheric O 3 to near-surface O 3 was accounted for at 26.77 %. The proposed meteorological mechanism of the vertical transport of stratospheric O 3 into the near-surface atmosphere, driven by an extratropical cyclone system, could improve the understanding of the influence of stratospheric O 3 on the atmospheric environment, with implications for the coordinated control of atmospheric pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling of the Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) to phase 6 (CMIP6) is evaluated in this study. On average, a wide coverage of warm biases appears in the Antarctic stratosphere, which is greatest in the early CMIP and is gradually diminished in the two later CMIPs with the number of models reproducing QBO increasing (0, 5, and 19). Four metrics of the Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex are assessed for three generations of CMIPs. Biases such as the overly weak strength, the overly large aspect ratio and the westward drifted vortex centroid are commonly shared across the CMIPs. While with improvements of the model resolution, model top, interactive chemistry and physical process, the intermodel spread narrows generation by generation, especially for high-top models than low-top models in the simulation of vortex area. Further, intermodel spread of Antarctic stratospheric vortex is obviously associated with the bias of austral winter sea surface temperature (SST). Specifically, as cold SST bias in the southern tropical Pacific Ocean and warm SST bias in the Southern Hemisphere Niño 1 + 2 region (Nino) improve, biases in the modelled vortex metrics also decrease, which can be partly attributed to the modifying of the upward propagations of planetary waves over tropical and extratropical oceans. The strengthened relationships in the focused regions further confirms the importance of the SST simulation for the stratosphere vortex simulation. In general, despite biases of the polar vortex existing across CMIPs, marked progresses have been achieved for most models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The representation of the Arctic stratospheric circulation and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during the period 1981–2019 in a 40-yr Chinese global reanalysis dataset (CRA-40) is evaluated by comparing two widely used reanalysis datasets, ERA-5 and MERRA-2. CRA-40 demonstrates a comparable performance with ERA-5 and MERRA-2 in characterizing the winter and spring circulation in the lower and middle Arctic stratosphere. Specifically, differences in the climatological polar-mean temperature and polar night jet among the three reanalyses are within ±0.5 K and ±0.5 m s−1, respectively. The onset dates of the stratospheric sudden warming and stratospheric final warming events at 10 hPa in CRA-40, together with the dynamics and circulation anomalies during the onset process of warming events, are nearly identical to the other two reanalyses with slight differences. By contrast, the CRA-40 dataset demonstrates a deteriorated performance in describing the QBO below 10 hPa compared to the other two reanalysis products, manifested by the larger easterly biases of the QBO index, the remarkably weaker amplitude of the QBO, and the weaker wavelet power of the QBO period. Such pronounced biases are mainly concentrated in the period 1981–98 and largely reduced by at least 39% in 1999–2019. Thus, particular caution is needed in studying the QBO based on CRA-40. All three reanalyses exhibit greater disagreement in the upper stratosphere compared to the lower and middle stratosphere for both the polar region and the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A unique set of relaxation experiments with a forecast model initialized during December–January 1999–2019 is used to explore tropical influence on the Northern Hemisphere polar stratosphere and stratosphere–troposphere coupling, to quantify predictability benefits due to the perfect knowledge of the tropical variability. On average, predictability of the polar stratosphere, as represented by the 50 hPa geopotential height anomalies north of 50°N (Z50), increases from 17 days in freely running (control) forecasts to 21 days in the tropical relaxation experiments. At sub‐seasonal time‐scales, a statistically significant improvement in weekly mean skill scores can be demonstrated in 14%–20% of individual forecast ensembles, mostly in cases when the skill of the corresponding control forecast is worse than average. In these forecasts, root‐mean‐square errors and forecast spread of Z50 during forecast weeks 3–5 are decreased by 10%–15%. Stratospheric improvements are detected during periods of both vortex strengthening and vortex weakening, including most major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings that occurred during the study period, via modulation of the upward wave activity fluxes. An active Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is found in most of these events with MJO phase 5–7 preceding vortex weakening and MJO phase 3–4 preceding vortex strengthening. Forecasts with improved stratospheric circulation also have improved tropospheric circulation during and after the periods when improvements are detected in the stratosphere. We attribute these improvements to both stratosphere–troposphere coupling and tropospheric tropical teleconnections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational monitoring of the stratospheric transport circulation, the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), is crucial to estimate any decadal to long-term changes therein, a prerequisite to interpret trends in stratospheric composition and to constrain the consequential impacts on climate. The transport time along the BDC (i.e. the mean stratospheric age of air, AoA) can best be deduced from trace gas measurements of tracers which increase linearly with time and are chemically passive. The gas sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6) is often used to deduce AoA because it has been increasing monotonically since the ∼ 1950s, and previously its chemical sinks in the mesosphere have been assumed to be negligible for AoA estimates. However, recent studies have shown that the chemical sinks of SF 6 are stronger than assumed and become increasingly relevant with rising SF 6 concentrations. To adjust biases in AoA that result from the chemical SF 6 sinks, we here propose a simple correction scheme for SF 6 -based AoA estimates accounting for the time-dependent effects of chemical sinks. The correction scheme is based on theoretical considerations with idealized assumptions, resulting in a relation between ideal AoA and apparent AoA which is a function of the tropospheric reference time series of SF 6 and of the AoA-dependent effective lifetime of SF 6. The correction method is thoroughly tested within a self-consistent data set from a climate model that includes explicit calculation of chemical SF 6 sinks. It is shown within the model that the correction successfully reduces biases in SF 6 -based AoA to less than 5 % for mean ages below 5 years. Tests using only subsampled data for deriving the fit coefficients show that applying the correction scheme even with imperfect knowledge of the sink is far superior to not applying a sink correction. Furthermore, we show that based on currently available measurements, we are not able to constrain the fit parameters of the correction scheme based on observational data alone. However, the model-based correction curve lies within the observational uncertainty, and we thus recommend using the model-derived fit coefficients until more high-quality measurements are able to further constrain the correction scheme. The application of the correction scheme to AoA from satellites and in situ data suggests that it is highly beneficial to reconcile different observational estimates of mean AoA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The study presents (a) a 44‐year wintertime climatology of resolved gravity wave (GW) fluxes and forcing in the extratropical stratosphere using ERA5, and (b) their composite evolution around gradual (final warming) and abrupt (sudden warming) transitions in the wintertime circulation, focusing on lateral fluxes. The transformed Eulerian mean equations are leveraged to provide a glimpse of the importance of GW lateral propagation (i.e., horizontal propagation) toward driving the wintertime stratospheric circulation by analyzing the relative contribution of the vertical versus meridional flux dissipation. The relative contribution from lateral propagation is found to be notable, especially in the Austral winter stratosphere where lateral (vertical) momentum flux convergence provides a peak climatological forcing of up to −0.5 (−3.5) m/s/day around 60°S at 40–45 km altitude. Prominent lateral propagation in the wintertime midlatitudes also contributes to the formation of belts of GW activity in both hemispheres.

Gravity waves (GWs) are among the key drivers of the meridional overturning circulation in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. Their representation in climate models suffers from insufficient resolution and limited observational constraints on their parameterizations. This obscures assessments of middle atmospheric circulation changes in a changing climate. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of stratospheric GW activity above and downstream of the Andes from 1 to 15 August 2019, with special focus on GW representation ranging from an unprecedented kilometer-scale global forecast model (1.4 km ECMWF IFS), ground-based Rayleigh lidar (CORAL) observations, modern reanalysis (ERA5), to a coarse-resolution climate model (EMAC). Resolved vertical flux of zonal GW momentum (GWMF) is found to be stronger by a factor of at least 2–2.5 in IFS compared to ERA5. Compared to resolved GWMF in IFS, parameterizations in ERA5 and EMAC continue to inaccurately generate excessive GWMF poleward of 60°S, yielding prominent differences between resolved and parameterized GWMFs. A like-to-like validation of GW profiles in IFS and ERA5 reveals similar wave structures. Still, even at ∼1 km resolution, the resolved waves in IFS are weaker than those observed by lidar. Further, GWMF estimates across datasets reveal that temperature-based proxies, based on midfrequency approximations for linear GWs, overestimate GWMF due to simplifications and uncertainties in GW wavelength estimation from data. Overall, the analysis provides GWMF benchmarks for parameterization validation and calls for three-dimensional GW parameterizations, better upper-boundary treatment, and vertical resolution increases commensurate with increases in horizontal resolution in models, for a more realistic GW analysis. Significance Statement: Gravity wave–induced momentum forcing forms a key component of the middle atmospheric circulation. However, complete knowledge of gravity waves, their atmospheric effects, and their long-term trends are obscured due to limited global observations, and the inability of current climate models to fully resolve them. This study combines a kilometer-scale forecast model, modern reanalysis, and a coarse-resolution climate model to first compare the resolved and parameterized momentum fluxes by gravity waves generated over the Andes, and then evaluate the fluxes using a state-of-the-art ground-based Rayleigh lidar. Our analysis reveals shortcomings in current model parameterizations of gravity waves in the middle atmosphere and highlights the sensitivity of the estimated flux to the formulation used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The weak stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) is usually linked to Northern Hemisphere cold spells. Based on the fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis and WACCM model experiments, we use K-means cluster analysis to extract the zonally asymmetric pattern of October-February stratospheric variability, which involves a stretched SPV and hence leads to cold surges in Northern Hemispheric mid-latitudes. There are contrasting effects and mechanisms between autumn (October–November) and late winter (February) SPV stretching events. In October, anomalies in the stratospheric circulation affect the near-surface 16–20 days after the weakening of the SPV. This contributes to a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) towards its negative phase, leading to cold anomalies over northern Eurasia. Together with the weakening of planetary wave-1 during days 31–40, the second stratosphere–troposphere coupling strengthens the East Asian trough and the Siberian high, resulting in Eurasian high-latitude cooling. For November, the suppressed upward propagation of wave-1 during days 11–15 is conducive to anomalous high pressure over northern Europe and thereby European cooling through a stratospheric pathway, while for days 21–30, the weakening of propagating wave-2 over Eastern Europe intensifies the mid-latitude wave train through a tropospheric pathway, favorable for cold temperatures in mid-latitude East Asia. In contrast, the late winter SPV stretching events and the attendant Eurasian coldness during 11–25 days are likely to have been simultaneously driven by the long-lived European high anomaly, which enhanced the upward-propagating tropospheric waves into the stratosphere and thus favored SPV stretching. It indicates that the tropospheric pathway, rather than the stratospheric pathway, plays a dominant role in cold Eurasia following February SPV stretching events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• For the SH 2019 SSW, the wave driving observed was the highest recorded since 1979. • An enhanced upwelling led to cooling in the tropical stratosphere. • Tropical upper stratospheric water vapor increased while ozone decreased after SSW. The changes in the intensity of Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in the record-breaking Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming (SH SSW) event in 2019 are investigated in the present study. Wave driving was observed to be at its highest in 2019 SH SSW, despite the event being classified as a minor warming event. The Eliassen-Palm flux divergence, indicative of wave driving, was observed to be increasing before the SSW, and subsiding afterwards. The stratospheric circulation followed the wave driving and intensified along the warming episode. The resulting stratospheric distribution from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder showed a negative ozone anomaly (∼20%) in the tropical lower stratosphere and a downward propagating positive anomaly in the Southern Hemisphere polar stratosphere around the central dates. The water vapor mixing ratio showed an increase of more than 25% in the polar lower stratosphere and 10 % in the tropical upper stratosphere. A cooling of about 5 K was observed in the tropical middle stratosphere. The results indicate that SH SSW can change the intensity of the stratospheric circulation which in turn affects the ozone and water vapor transport from the tropics to the pole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratospheric dynamics are strongly affected by the absorption/emission of radiation in the Earth's atmosphere and Rossby waves that propagate upward from the troposphere, perturbing the zonal flow. Reduced order models of stratospheric wave–zonal interactions, which parameterize these effects, have been used to study interannual variability in stratospheric zonal winds and sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. These models are most sensitive to two main parameters: Λ , forcing the mean radiative zonal wind gradient, and h, a perturbation parameter representing the effect of Rossby waves. We take one such reduced order model with 20 years of ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis data and estimate Λ and h using both a particle filter and an ensemble smoother to investigate if the highly-simplified model can accurately reproduce the averaged reanalysis data and which parameter properties may be required to do so. We find that by allowing additional complexity via an unparameterized Λ (t) , the model output can closely match the reanalysis data while maintaining behavior consistent with the dynamical properties of the reduced-order model. Furthermore, our analysis shows physical signatures in the parameter estimates around known SSW events. This work provides a data-driven examination of these important parameters representing fundamental stratospheric processes through the lens and tractability of a reduced order model, shown to be physically representative of the relevant atmospheric dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sulfur‐based stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) can cool the climate, but also heats the tropical lower stratosphere if done with injections at low latitudes. We explore the role of this heating in the climate response to SAI, by using mechanistic experiments that remove the effects of longwave absorption of sulfate aerosols above the tropopause. If longwave absorption by stratospheric aerosols is disabled, the heating of the tropical tropopause and most of the related side effects are strongly alleviated and the cooling per Tg‐S injected is 40% bigger. Such side‐effects include the poleward expansion of eddy‐driven jets, acceleration of the stratospheric residual circulation, and delay of Antarctic ozone recovery. Our results add to other recent findings on SAI side effects and demonstrate that SAI scenarios with low‐latitude injections of absorptive materials may result in atmospheric effects and regional climate changes that are comparable to those produced by the CO2 warming signal. Plain Language Summary: We explore the effects of the injection of sulfur into the tropical stratosphere to lower global average temperatures from those projected under a high‐emission greenhouse gas scenario to the levels of a mid‐emission scenario. We found that some detrimental effects of this injection are of a similar magnitude to those from climate change itself in some regions. This includes a strong warming 15 km above the tropics, which alters large‐scale weather patterns in the atmosphere. In comparison to the mid‐emission scenario, we find enhanced surface warming in the polar regions and modification in regional precipitation patterns over land, therefore not completely alleviating the warming of the high‐emission scenario in high northern latitudes. We show that the tropical stratospheric heating is responsible for a large portion of these side effects on tropospheric climate. Key Points: Many side effects of sulfur‐based stratospheric aerosol intervention are caused by heating of the tropical lower stratosphereSome regional patterns of change tied to atmospheric circulation can be of the same magnitude as those that are CO2‐drivenThe absorptivity of the aerosol particles increases their lifetime but decreases their cooling efficiency per Tg‐S per year by 40% [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratosphere-to-troposphere transport results in the stratospheric intrusion (SI) of O3 into the free troposphere through the tropopause folding. However, the mechanism of SI influencing the atmospheric environment with the cross-layer transport of O3 from the stratosphere, free troposphere to the atmospheric boundary layer has not been elucidated thoroughly. In this study, a SI event over the North China Plain (NCP) was taken to investigate the mechanism of the cross-layer transport of stratospheric O3 with the impact on the near-surface O3 based on the multi-source reanalysis and observation data and air quality modeling. The results revealed a significant mechanism of stratospheric O3 intrusion to the atmospheric environment induced by an extratropical cyclone system. The SI with downward transport of stratospheric O3 to near-surface layer was driven by the extratropical cyclone system with vertical coupling of 'upper westerly trough-middle the Northeast Cold Vortex (NECV)-lower extratropical cyclone' in the troposphere. The deep trough in the westerly jet aroused the tropopause folding, and the lower stratospheric O3 penetrated the folded tropopause into the upper and middle troposphere; the westerly trough was cut off to form a typical cold vortex in the upper and middle troposphere. The compensating downdrafts of the NECV pushed the further downward transport of stratospheric O3 in the free troposphere; The NECV activated an extratropical cyclone in the lower troposphere, and the vertical cyclonic circulation governed the stratospheric O3 from the free troposphere across the boundary layer top invading the near-surface atmosphere. In this SI event, the averaged contribution of stratospheric O3 to near-surface O3 was accounted for 26.77 %. The proposed meteorological mechanism of vertical transport of stratospheric O3 into the near-surface atmosphere driven by an extratropical cyclone system could improve the understanding of the influence of stratospheric O3 on atmospheric environment with implications for the coordinated control of atmospheric pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic Total Column Ozone (TCO) gradually began to recover around 2000, and a large number of studies have pointed out that the recovery of the Antarctic TCO is most significant in the austral early spring (September). Based on the Bodeker Scientific Filled Total Column Ozone and ERA5 reanalysis dataset covering 1979–2019, the variation characteristics of the Antarctic TCO and stratospheric circulation for the TCO 'depletion' period (1979–1999) and the 'recovery' period (2000–2019) are analyzed in September. Results show that: (1) Stratospheric elements significantly related to the TCO have corresponding changes during the two eras. (2) The interannual variability of the TCO and the above-mentioned stratospheric circulation elements in the recovery period are stronger than those in the depletion period. (3) Compared with the depletion period, due to the stronger amplitude of the planetary wave 1, stronger Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux corresponds to EP flux convergence, larger negative eddy heat flux, and positive eddy momentum flux in the stratosphere during the recovery period. The polar temperature rises in the lower and middle stratosphere and the polar vortex weakens in the middle and upper stratosphere, accompanied by the diminished area of PSC. This contributes to the understanding of Antarctic ozone recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reanalysis data reveal a weak warming trend in the midwinter Arctic stratosphere, contrary to the cooling expectation based on the greenhouse gas effect. This trend is also influenced by the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Using Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) we investigate temperature trends over a similar timescale as ERA5 and find that CMIP6 models can replicate the positive midwinter temperature trend in the mid‐lower stratosphere. However, when considering the multi‐model mean, this positive temperature trend is much weaker than ERA5. Extrapolating to the future, we find that the SSW‐driven positive temperature trend will likely not continue in the future based on the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 climate scenarios. Instead, the models project there will be widespread cooling throughout the Arctic winter stratosphere regardless of the occurrence of SSWs. Using a subsample of CMIP6 models which replicate the seasonality of the Arctic winter stratosphere most similarly to that of ERA5, we also find that the zonal wind strength during SSWs correlates the most with the temperature trends found there. However, trends in the zonal wind strength alone cannot account for the observed temperature trends among the CMIP6 models. Plain Language Summary: During the 1980–2019 period, the temperature in the mid‐lower Arctic winter stratosphere has been increasing while the rest of the stratosphere has been cooling. More interestingly, when this period is filtered according to years with and without sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), an event associated with a remarkable disruption to the stratospheric circulation and impressive temperature increases, it has been found that the years in which sudden warming events occur are driving the observed temperature trends. To determine if this positive temperature trend will continue in the future, this work uses climate models. We find that a positive temperature trend will not continue in the future. Instead, it is more likely that there will be widespread cooling throughout the winter Arctic stratosphere, regardless of the occurrence of SSWs. We also find that the strength of the zonal wind in the Arctic stratosphere is an important consideration when discussing the temperature trends. However, trends in the zonal wind strength alone cannot account for the observed temperature trends found in the Arctic winter stratosphere. Key Points: A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)‐induced "cooling hole", or rather a weak warming trend, is observed in the wintertime Arctic stratosphereGCMs replicate this SSW‐influenced lack‐of‐cooling phenomenon in their historical simulationsGCMs project the warming to be less dominant in the future compared to historical data [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is the main gateway for air transiting from the troposphere to the stratosphere and therefore impacts the chemical composition of the stratosphere. In particular, the cold point tropopause, where air parcels encounter their final dehydration, effectively controls the water vapor content of the lower stratosphere. Given the important role of stratospheric water vapor for the global energy budget, it is crucial to understand the long-term changes in cold point temperature and their impact on water vapor trends. Our study uses GNSS-RO data to show that, there has been no overall cooling trend of the TTL over the past two decades, in contrast to observations prior to 2000. Instead, the cold point is warming, with the strongest trends of up to 0.7 K/decade during boreal winter and spring. The cold point warming shows longitudinal asymmetries with the smallest warming over the central Pacific and the largest warming over the Atlantic. These asymmetries are anti-correlated with patterns of tropospheric warming, and regions of strongest cold point warming are found to show slight cooling trends in the upper troposphere. Overall, the here identified warming of the cold point is consistent with model prediction under global climate change, which attributes the warming trends to radiative effects. The seasonal signals and zonal asymmetries of the cold point temperature and height trends, on the other hand, seemed to be related to dynamical responses to enhanced upper tropospheric heating, changing convection, or trends of the stratospheric circulation. Water vapor observations in the TTL show mostly positive trends for 2004–2021 consistent with cold point warming. We find a decrease of the amplitude of the cold point temperature seasonal cycle by ~7 % driving a reduction of the seasonal cycle in 100 hPa water vapor by 5–6 %. Our analysis shows that this reduction in the seasonal cycle is transported upwards together with the seasonal anomalies and has reduced the amplitude of the well-known tape recorder over the last two decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Very large (~2000 members) initial-condition ensemble simulations have been performed to advance understanding of mean climate and extreme weather responses to projected Arctic sea-ice loss under 2 °C global warming above preindustrial levels. These simulations better sample internal atmospheric variability and extremes for each model compared to those from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP). The mean climate response is mostly consistent with that from the PAMIP multi-model ensemble, including tropospheric warming, reduced midlatitude westerlies and storm track activity, an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet and increased mid-to-high latitude blocking. Two resolutions of the same model exhibit significant differences in the stratospheric circulation response; however, these differences only weakly modulate the tropospheric response. The response of temperature and precipitation extremes largely follows the seasonal-mean response. Sub-sampling confirms that large ensembles (e.g. ≥400) are needed to robustly estimate the seasonal-mean large-scale circulation response, and very large ensembles (e.g. ≥1000) for regional climate and extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano injected a large amount of water vapor into the mid‐stratosphere. This study uses model simulations to investigate the resulting stratospheric impacts out to 2031. Maximum radiatively‐driven model temperature changes occur in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) subtropics in April–May 2022, with warming of ∼1 K in the lower stratosphere and cooling of 3 K in the mid‐stratosphere. The radiative cooling combined with adiabatic cooling driven by the quasi‐biennial oscillation meridional circulation explains the near‐record cold anomaly observed in the SH subtropical mid‐stratosphere. Projected ozone responses maximize in 2023–2024 as the water vapor plume is transported globally throughout the stratosphere and mesosphere. The excess H2O increases the OH radical, causing a negative global ozone response (2%–10%) in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere due to increased odd hydrogen‐ozone loss, and a small positive ozone response (0.5%–1%) in the mid‐stratosphere due to interference of the NOx catalytic loss cycle by the additional OH. In the lower stratosphere, the excess H2O is projected to increase polar stratospheric clouds and springtime halogen‐ozone loss, enhancing the Antarctic ozone hole by 25–30 DU in 2023. Arctic impact is small, with maximum additional ozone loss of 4–5 DU projected in spring 2024. These responses diminish after 2024 to be quite small by 2031, as the excess H2O is removed from the stratosphere with a 2.5‐year e‐folding time. Given the year‐to‐year variability of the stratosphere, the magnitudes of these ozone responses may be below the threshold of detectability in observations. Plain Language Summary: Stratospheric ozone protects Earth's biosphere from harmful ultraviolet radiation, and along with water vapor, are key components in determining temperature and chemistry of the atmosphere. The January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano in the South Pacific injected water vapor into the atmosphere, increasing stratospheric water vapor by 10%. In this study, we use computer simulations of the stratosphere to project how this additional water vapor changed temperature and ozone in the months and years following the eruption. The water vapor cooled the middle stratosphere (roughly 14–25 miles above Earth's surface) and warmed the lower stratosphere (6–14 miles above the surface), with the largest changes of 2–5° Fahrenheit in March–June 2022, several months after the eruption. The additional water vapor modified chemical processes that affect stratospheric ozone, leading to a projected 10%–15% enhancement in the Antarctic ozone hole. This ozone hole enhancement is estimated to have maximized in October 2023, almost 2 years after the eruption, due to the slow circulation of stratospheric water vapor from the subtropics to the polar region. These impacts are expected to diminish after 2024 as the excess water vapor is slowly removed from the atmosphere by natural processes. Key Points: The water vapor injection from the Hunga Tonga eruption impacts stratospheric temperature and ozoneLargest additional ozone depletion is estimated to occur in Antarctic spring 2023. The ozone response may not be detectable in observationsThe impacts are projected to gradually diminish after 2024 as the excess water vapor is removed from the stratosphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss and subsequent near-surface impacts by analyzing 200-member coupled experiments using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) with preindustrial, present-day, and future sea ice conditions specified following the protocol of the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. The stratospheric polar vortex weakens significantly in response to the prescribed sea ice loss, with a larger response to greater ice loss (i.e., future minus preindustrial) than to smaller ice loss (i.e., future minus present-day). Following the weakening of the stratospheric circulation in early boreal winter, the coupled stratosphere–troposphere response to ice loss strengthens in late winter and early spring, projecting onto a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern in the lower troposphere. To investigate whether the stratospheric response to sea ice loss and subsequent surface impacts depend on the background oceanic state, ensemble members are initialized by a combination of varying phases of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and interdecadal Pacific variability (IPV). Different AMV and IPV states combined, indeed, can modulate the stratosphere–troposphere responses to sea ice loss, particularly in the North Atlantic sector. Similar experiments with another climate model show that, although strong sea ice forcing also leads to tighter stratosphere–troposphere coupling than weak sea ice forcing, the timing of the response differs from that in WACCM6. Our findings suggest that Arctic sea ice loss can affect the stratospheric circulation and subsequent tropospheric variability on seasonal time scales, but modulation by the background oceanic state and model dependence need to be taken into account. Significance Statement: This study uses new-generation climate models to better understand the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss on the surface climate in the midlatitudes, including North America, Europe, and Siberia. We focus on the stratosphere–troposphere pathway, which involves the weakening of stratospheric winds and its downward coupling into the troposphere. Our results show that Arctic sea ice loss can affect the surface climate in the midlatitudes via the stratosphere–troposphere pathway, and highlight the modulations from background mean oceanic states as well as model dependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) describes a disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex in the winter hemisphere. It affects not only the stratospheric circulation but also the surface climate for up to 2 months, serving as an important source of subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) predictability in midlatitudes. This study evaluates the predictability of the 2021 SSW and investigates the crucial factors that determine its predictability in the ECMWF and JMA S2S real‐time forecasts. In both models, only a subset of the ensemble members predicted the SSW at the lead time of about 2 weeks before the onset. By comparing the 10 ensembles with successful SSW predictions and those with failed predictions, we found that the ensembles predicting the SSW have relatively stronger wave fluxes from the upper troposphere to the stratosphere than the others. Stronger wave fluxes, particularly those of zonal wavenumber one, are not the result of the tropospheric precursors such as the Ural blocking and Aleutian cyclones but they result from the modulation of the wave propagation by the background state. In particular, the ensembles with failed SSW predictions tend to have a negative potential vorticity gradient in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, which limits the upward wave propagation into the stratosphere and provides an unfavorable condition for the SSW. This result suggests that not only the wave sources in the troposphere but also the background state in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere can modulate the predictability of SSW in S2S prediction models. Plain Language Summary: Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) refers to the rapid increase in temperature in the polar stratosphere during winter. It plays a crucial role in predicting weather patterns within a timeframe ranging from 2 weeks to 2 months (subseasonal‐to‐seasonal; S2S). This study investigates the factors that contribute to the predictability of the 2021 SSW. By comparing the S2S forecasts with and without the SSW, it is found that the predictability of SSW is not determined by the tropospheric precursors, but by the zonal‐mean flow in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that modulates the wave propagation from the troposphere to the stratosphere. This result suggests that a better prediction of the wave propagation condition is a critical factor for a successful SSW prediction on the S2S time scale. Key Points: The crucial factors that determine the predictability of the 2021 SSW in S2S prediction models are examinedThe k = 1 wave propagating into the stratosphere plays an essential role in the SSW predictionThe PV gradient in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere can control the SSW predictability by modulating the upward wave propagation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A modulation has been identified of the tropical Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) by the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) such that the MJO in boreal winter is ∼40% stronger and persists ∼10 days longer during the easterly QBO phase (QBOE) than during the westerly phase. A proposed mechanism is reductions of tropical lower stratospheric static stability during QBOE caused by (a) the QBO induced meridional circulation; and (b) QBO influences on extratropical wave forcing of the stratospheric residual meridional circulation during early winter. Here, long‐term variability of the QBO‐MJO connection and associated variability of near‐tropopause tropical static stability and extratropical wave forcing are investigated using European Center reanalysis data for the 1959–2021 period. During the most reliable (post‐satellite) part of the record beginning in 1979, a strengthening of the QBO‐MJO modulation has occurred during a time when tropical static stability in the lowermost stratosphere and uppermost troposphere has been decreasing and extratropical wave forcing in early winter has been increasing. A high inverse correlation (R = −0.87) is obtained during this period between early winter wave forcing anomalies and wintertime tropical lower stratospheric static stability. Regression relationships are used to show that positive trends in early winter wave forcing during this period have likely contributed to decreases in tropical static stability, favoring a stronger QBO‐MJO connection. As shown in previous work, increased sea level pressure anomalies over northern Eurasia produced by Arctic sea ice loss may have been a significant source of the observed positive trends in early winter wave forcing. Plain Language Summary: The tropical Madden‐Julian oscillation, also called the 40–50‐day oscillation, is a propagating pattern of tropical convection and precipitation that is a major driver of intraseasonal climate variability. Recent studies have found that (a) it is modulated by stratospheric forcings like the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO); and (b) the QBO modulation appears to have been strengthening since the early 1980s. A possible cause of the QBO modulation is reductions of static stability (stability against convection) near the tropical tropopause, which tend to occur during the easterly phase of the QBO. Consistent with this possible cause, tropical lower stratospheric static stabilities have been declining since the most reliable observations began in the late 1970s. Here, it is shown that increased tropical upwelling rates resulting from long‐term positive trends in early winter extratropical wave forcing of the stratospheric circulation have contributed significantly to the observed decline in tropical lower stratospheric static stability in boreal winter since that time. Increased sea level pressure anomalies over northern Eurasia produced by Arctic sea ice loss (and associated increases in Eurasian snow cover) can potentially explain the observed positive trends in early winter wave forcing. Climate model experiments are needed to test this possibility. Key Points: A stronger modulation of the Madden‐Julian oscillation by the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation has existed since the early 1980sTropical stratospheric static stability has declined since the late 1970s due partly to increases in early winter extratropical wave forcingLarger sea level pressure anomalies over northern Eurasia due to Arctic sea ice loss are a possible cause of the increasing wave forcing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold winters over Eurasia often coincide with warm winters in the Arctic, which has become known as the "warm Arctic–cold Eurasia" pattern. The extent to which this observed correlation is indicative of a causal response to sea ice loss is debated. Here, using large multimodel ensembles of coordinated experiments, we find that the Eurasian temperature response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak compared to internal variability and is not robust across climate models. We show that Eurasian cooling is driven by tropospheric and stratospheric circulation changes in response to sea ice loss but is counteracted by tropospheric thermodynamical warming, as the local warming induced by sea ice loss spreads into the midlatitudes by eddy advection. Although opposing effects of thermodynamical warming and dynamical cooling are found robustly across different models or different sea ice perturbations, their net effect varies in sign and magnitude across the models, resulting in diverse model temperature responses over Eurasia. The contributions from both tropospheric dynamics and thermodynamics show substantial intermodel spread. Although some of this spread in the Eurasian winter temperature response to sea ice loss may stem from model uncertainty, even with several hundred ensemble members, it is challenging to isolate model differences in the forced response from internal variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the dependence of Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) variations on the meridional positions of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the first leading mode of North Pacific SST. The principal component 1 (PC1) of the first leading mode is obtained by empirical orthogonal function decomposition. Reanalysis data, numerical experiments, and CMIP5 model outputs all suggest that the PC1 events (positive-minus-negative PC1 events), located relatively northward (i.e., North PC1 events), more easily weaken the Arctic SPV compared to the PC1 events located relatively southward (i.e., South PC1 events). The analysis indicates that the North PC1-related Aleutian low anomaly is located over the northern North Pacific and thus enhances the climatological trough, which strengthens the planetary-scale wave 1 at mid-to-high latitudes and thereby weakens the SPV. The weakened stratospheric circulation further extends into the troposphere and favors negative surface temperature anomalies over Eurasia. By contrast, the South PC1-related Aleutian low anomaly is located relatively southward, and its constructive interference with the climatological trough is less efficient at high latitudes. Thus, the South PC1 events could not induce an evident enhancement of the planetary-scale waves at high latitudes and thereby a weakening of the SPV on average. The Eurasian cooling associated with South PC1 events (positive-minus-negative PC1 events) is also not prominent. The results of this study suggest that the meridional positions of the PC1 events may be useful for predicting the Arctic SPV and Eurasian surface temperature variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the data of ERA5 reanalysis, the dates of spring and autumn changes in the stratospheric circulation on isobaric surfaces of 30, 20, and 10 hPa in the latitude zone of 30°–90° N in the period 1979–2020 have been obtained. Of the 42 cases of spring changes, 10 are early, 15 are middle, and 17 are late. The spread in the dates of spring changes on the surface of 10 hPa is 69 days. Most often, the spring changes of the circulation occurs from top to bottom; in some years, the delay of spring changes on the surface of 30 hPa relative to the surface of 10 hPa reaches 22–25 days. Autumn change takes place from the bottom up, and their terms at the 3 levels under consideration are close to each other. The relationship between the timing of the spring changes of the stratospheric circulation with solar activity and large sudden winter stratospheric warming is shown. An analysis of the fields of anomalies of daily temperature values and zonal wind velocity in the 1000-1 hPa layer in the period of January–May showed their significant spatiotemporal difference in the case of early and late spring changes. Thus, foci of positive anomalies of temperature and wind speed are formed initially in the upper stratosphere and then shifted from top to bottom. The interrelations between the layers of the atmosphere in different seasons are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study conducts a thorough investigation into the behaviors of analysis ensemble spreads linked to stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events. A stratosphere-resolving ensemble data assimilation system is used here to document the evolution of analysis spread leading up to a pair of warming events. Precursory signals of the increased ensemble spreads were found a few days prior to two SSW events that occurred during December 2018 and August–September 2019 in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. The signals appeared in the upper and middle stratosphere and did not appear at lower heights. When the signals appeared, it was found that both tendency by forecast and analysis increment in a forecast-analysis (data assimilation) cycle simultaneously became large. An empirical orthogonal function analysis showed that the dominant structures of the precursory signals were equivalent barotropic and were 90° out-of-phase with the analysis ensemble-mean field. Over the same period, the upper and middle stratosphere became more susceptible to barotropic instability than in their previous states. We conclude that the differing growth of barotropically unstable modes across ensemble members can amplify spread during the lead-up to SSW events. Significance Statement: Winds in the winter stratospheric polar vortex are typically westerly. Occasionally, however, warming over the pole leads to a reversal of the flow through a process known as stratospheric sudden warming. These events are difficult to predict even in state-of-the-art analysis and forecasting systems. In this study, we identify a precursor signal in the form of increased ensemble spread that appears to originate from differing realizations of growing barotropic modes across the ensemble. This signal could serve as a useful forecasting tool by enhancing situational awareness in the lead-up to potential stratospheric sudden warming events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) on the atmosphere and surface climate depend on when and where the sulfate aerosol precursors are injected, as well as on how much surface cooling is to be achieved. We use a set of CESM2(WACCM6) SAI simulations achieving three different levels of global mean surface cooling and demonstrate that unlike some direct surface climate impacts driven by the reflection of solar radiation by sulfate aerosols, the SAI‐induced changes in the high latitude circulation and ozone are more complex and could be non‐linear. This manifests in our simulations by disproportionally larger Antarctic springtime ozone loss, significantly larger intra‐ensemble spread of the Arctic stratospheric jet and ozone responses, and non‐linear impacts on the extratropical modes of surface climate variability under the strongest‐cooling SAI scenario compared to the weakest one. These potential non‐linearities may add to uncertainties in projections of regional surface impacts under SAI. Plain Language Summary: The injection of reflective aerosols, or their precursors, into the lower stratosphere (Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, SAI) has been proposed as a temporary measure to offset some of the adverse impacts of climate change whilst atmospheric concentrations of greenhouses are being stabilized and, ultimately, reduced. The impacts of SAI on the atmosphere and surface climate would depend on when and where the sulfate aerosol precursors are injected, as well as on how much surface cooling is to be achieved. Here we analyze SAI impacts on stratospheric climate and ozone in a set of Earth system model simulations under varying magnitudes of the SAI‐induced global mean cooling. We demonstrate that unlike some of the direct surface climate impacts from the reflection of solar radiation by sulfate aerosols, the SAI‐induced changes in stratospheric circulation, chemistry and climate are more complex, with the model simulations pointing toward more non‐linear behavior of the high latitude circulation and ozone under higher SAI scenarios. These potential non‐linearities may add to uncertainties in projections of regional surface impacts under SAI. Key Points: Impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) depend on how much surface cooling is to be achievedHigh latitude circulation, ozone and modes of extratropical variability can vary non‐linearly with the SAI‐induced global surface coolingThese potential non‐linearities may add to uncertainties in projections of regional surface impacts under SAI [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption in January 2022 injected unprecedented amounts of water vapor (H2O) and a moderate amount of the aerosol precursor sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropical stratosphere. The H2O and aerosol perturbations have persisted during 2022 and early 2023 and dispersed throughout the atmosphere. Observations show large‐scale SH stratospheric cooling, equatorward shift of the Antarctic polar vortex and slowing of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation. Satellite observations show substantial ozone reductions over SH winter midlatitudes that coincide with the largest circulation anomalies. Chemistry‐climate model simulations forced by realistic HTHH inputs of H2O and SO2 qualitatively reproduce the observed evolution of the H2O and aerosol plumes over the first year, and the model exhibits stratospheric cooling, circulation changes and ozone effects similar to observed behavior. The agreement demonstrates that the observed stratospheric changes are caused by the HTHH volcanic influences. Plain Language Summary: The Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) submarine volcano (21°S, 175°W) eruption in January 2022 injected unprecedented amounts of water vapor (H2O) as well as moderate amounts of aerosol precursor sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere. The H2O and aerosol perturbations persisted throughout 2022 and were accompanied by large changes in stratospheric climate and ozone chemistry. We use a chemistry‐climate model forced by realistic HTHH inputs of H2O and SO2 to simulate these stratospheric changes. The model exhibits temperature, circulation, and ozone anomalies in response to these forcings that are similar to those observed. The agreement demonstrates that the observed anomalies impacts are caused by HTHH volcanic influences. Key Points: Large‐scale stratospheric cooling and circulation changes are observed following the Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai eruptionObservations show ozone reduction in the Southern Hemisphere wintertime midlatitudes and large springtime Antarctic ozone losses in 2022A chemistry‐climate model can track the plumes and capture observed responses to the volcanic eruption [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano (20.5° S, 175.4° E) erupted, releasing significant amounts of aerosols, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and water vapor (H2O) into the stratosphere. Due to the general stratospheric circulation of the southern hemisphere, this volcanic plume traveled westward and impacted the Indian Ocean and Reunion (21.1° S, 55.5° E) a few days after the eruption. This study aims to show how the currently available ozone observations highlight the stratospheric dynamics during the first week following the eruption. The Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP) aerosol extinction profiles were used to investigate the vertical and latitudinal extension of the volcanic plume over the Indian Ocean. The volcanic aerosol plume was also observed with an aerosol lidar and a sunphotometer located at Reunion. The impact of this plume on stratospheric ozone was then investigated using MLS (Microwave Limb Spectrometer), OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument), MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2) and M2-SCREAM (MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura MLS) ozone profiles and total ozone. The results show that the volcanic plume traveled over Reunion at altitudes ranging from 26.8 to 29.7 km and spanned more than 20 degrees of latitude over the Indian Ocean. Ozone analyses reveal an ozone mini-hole structure, with the Total Column Ozone (TCO) anomaly of -15 DU from MERRA-2 covering an area of 12.06×105 km2 on 17 January and 4.94 × 105 km2 on 22 January. The ozone profiles from MLS show that a maximum stratospheric column ozone anomaly of -14.66 DU (-6.38 %) was found within the aerosol plume on 20 January. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining the habitability and interpreting future atmospheric observations of exoplanets requires understanding the atmospheric dynamics and chemistry from a 3D perspective. Previous studies have shown significant spatial variability in the ozone layer of synchronously rotating M-dwarf planets, assuming an Earth-like initial atmospheric composition. We simulate Proxima Centauri b in an 11.2-d orbit around its M-type host star using a 3D coupled climate-chemistry model to understand the spatial variability of ozone and identify the mechanism responsible for it. We document a previously unreported connection between the ozone production regions on the photochemically active dayside hemisphere and the nightside devoid of stellar radiation and thus photochemistry. We find that stratospheric dayside-to-nightside overturning circulation can advect ozone-rich air to the nightside. On the nightside, ozone-rich air subsides at the locations of two quasi-stationary Rossby gyres, resulting in an exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere and the accumulation of ozone at the gyre locations. The mechanism drives the ozone distribution for both the present atmospheric level (PAL) and a 0.01 PAL O2 atmosphere. We identify the hemispheric contrast in radiative heating and cooling as the main driver of the stratospheric dayside-to-nightside circulation. An age-of-air experiment shows that the mechanism also impacts other tracer species in the atmosphere (gaseous and non-gaseous phase) as long as chemical lifetimes exceed dynamical lifetimes. These findings, applicable to exoplanets in similar orbital configurations, illustrate the 3D nature of planetary atmospheres and the spatial and temporal variability that we can expect to impact spectroscopic observations of exoplanet atmospheres. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Canadian Earth System Model version 5.0 (CanESM5.0), the most recent major version of the global climate model developed at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), has been used extensively in climate research and for providing future climate projections in the context of climate services. Previous studies have shown that CanESM5.0 performs well compared to other models and have revealed several model biases. To address these biases, the CCCma has recently initiated the "Analysis for Development" (A4D) activity, a coordinated analysis activity in support of CanESM development. Here we describe the goals and organization of this effort and introduce two variants ("p1" and "p2") of a new CanESM version, CanESM5.1, which features important improvements as a result of the A4D activity. These improvements include the elimination of spurious stratospheric temperature spikes and an improved simulation of tropospheric dust. Other climate aspects of the p1 variant of CanESM5.1 are similar to those of CanESM5.0, while the p2 variant of CanESM5.1 features reduced equilibrium climate sensitivity and improved El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability as a result of intentional tuning of the atmospheric component. The A4D activity has also led to the improved understanding of other notable CanESM5.0 and CanESM5.1 biases, including the overestimation of North Atlantic sea ice, a cold bias over sea ice, biases in the stratospheric circulation and a cold bias over the Himalayas. It provides a potential framework for the broader climate community to contribute to CanESM development, which will facilitate further model improvements and ultimately lead to improved climate change information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hunga Tonga Hunga‐Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption on 15 January 2022 injected water vapor and SO2 into the stratosphere. Several months after the eruption, significantly stronger westerlies, and a weaker Brewer‐Dobson circulation developed in the stratosphere of the Southern Hemisphere and were accompanied by unprecedented temperature anomalies in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In August 2022, the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite instrument observed record‐breaking temperature anomalies in the stratosphere and mesosphere that alternate signs with altitude. Ensemble simulations carried out with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) indicate that the strengthening of the stratospheric westerlies explains the mesospheric temperature changes. The stronger westerlies cause stronger westward gravity wave drag in the mesosphere. Although the enhanced gravity wave drag is partly balanced by a weakening of planetary wave forcing, the net result is an acceleration of the mesospheric mean meridional circulation. The stronger mesospheric circulation, in turn, plays a dominant role in driving the changes in mesospheric temperatures. This study highlights the impact of large volcanic eruptions on middle atmospheric dynamics and provides insight into their long‐term effects in the mesosphere. On the other hand, we could not discern a clear mechanism for the observed changes in stratospheric circulation. In fact, an examination of the WACCM ensemble reveals that not every member reproduces the large changes observed by SABER. We conclude that there is a stochastic component to the stratospheric response to the HTHH eruption. Plain Language Summary: This work studies the impact of the Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption, which took place on 15 January 2022, on the earth's mesosphere (55–80 km). The eruption injected water vapor and SO2 into the stratosphere, which was followed by changes in the wind patterns in the stratosphere (16–55 km). Concurrent with these changes, we observed unprecedented temperature changes in the mesosphere, with record high and low temperature anomalies in August that alternate signs with altitude. We used climate model simulations to show that the changes in stratospheric winds were ultimately responsible for these record‐breaking mesospheric temperatures. We found that the stronger winds in the stratosphere enhanced gravity wave breaking in the mesosphere, which led to changes in the circulation and thus the temperature. However, we could not find a clear mechanism for the changes observed in the stratosphere. Key Points: Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry observed unprecedented mesospheric temperature variations in the Southern Hemisphere in August 2022 after the Hunga Tonga Hunga‐Ha'apai eruptionWhole Atmosphere Community Climate Model simulations indicate that changes in the mesospheric temperature are due to a stronger mesospheric meridional circulationStronger stratospheric westerlies after eruption enhance westward gravity wave drag in the mesosphere, thus a stronger circulation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The peculiarities of the troposphere and stratosphere dynamic processes that accompanied cooling events (cold waves) with a duration of more than a week in the northwest of European Russia (on the example of St. Petersburg) and in its north and center (on the example of Moscow) in early and late December 2021, respectively, are analyzed using reanalysis data, station observations, and trajectory modeling. In both cases the daily temperatures dropped below −10°C, and cold waves were accompanied by the air mass transport from the northeast [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite offsetting global mean surface temperature, various studies demonstrated that stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) could influence the recovery of stratospheric ozone and have important impacts on stratospheric and tropospheric circulation, thereby potentially playing an important role in modulating regional and seasonal climate variability. However, so far, most of the assessments of such an approach have come from climate model simulations in which SO 2 is injected only in a single location or a set of locations. Here we use CESM2-WACCM6 SAI simulations under a comprehensive set of SAI strategies achieving the same global mean surface temperature with different locations and/or timing of injections, namely an equatorial injection, an annual injection of equal amounts of SO 2 at 15 ∘ N and 15 ∘ S, an annual injection of equal amounts of SO 2 at 30 ∘ N and 30 ∘ S, and a polar strategy injecting SO 2 at 60 ∘ N and 60 ∘ S only in spring in each hemisphere. We demonstrate that despite achieving the same global mean surface temperature, the different strategies result in contrastingly different magnitudes of the aerosol-induced lower stratospheric warming, stratospheric moistening, strengthening of stratospheric polar jets in both hemispheres, and changes in the speed of the residual circulation. These impacts tend to maximise under the equatorial injection strategy and become smaller as the aerosols are injected away from the Equator into the subtropics and higher latitudes. In conjunction with the differences in direct radiative impacts at the surface, these different stratospheric changes drive different impacts on the extratropical modes of variability (Northern and Southern Annular modes), including important consequences on the northern winter surface climate, and on the intensity of tropical tropospheric Walker and Hadley circulations, which drive tropical precipitation patterns. Finally, we demonstrate that the choice of injection strategy also plays a first-order role in the future evolution of stratospheric ozone under SAI throughout the globe. Overall, our results contribute to an increased understanding of the fine interplay of various radiative, dynamical, and chemical processes driving the atmospheric circulation and ozone response to SAI and lay the foundation for designing an optimal SAI strategy that could form a basis of future multi-model intercomparisons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trends in stratospheric trace gases like HCl , N2O , O3 , and NOy show a hemispheric asymmetry over the last 2 decades, with trends having opposing signs in the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Here we use N2O , a long-lived tracer with a tropospheric source, as a proxy for stratospheric circulation in the multiple linear regression model used to calculate stratospheric trace gas trends. This is done in an effort to isolate trends due to circulation changes from trends due to the chemical effects of ozone-depleting substances. Measurements from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS) are considered, along with model results from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Trends in HCl , O3 , and NOy for 2004–2018 are examined. Using the N2O regression proxy, we show that observed HCl increases in the Northern Hemisphere are due to changes in the stratospheric circulation. We also show that negative O3 trends above 30 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere can be explained by a change in the circulation but that negative ozone trends at lower levels cannot. Trends in stratospheric NOy are found to be largely consistent with trends in N2O. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The large-scale extratropical circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is much more zonally symmetric than that of the Northern Hemisphere, but its zonal departures, albeit highly relevant for regional impacts, have been less studied. In this study we analyse the joint variability of the zonally asymmetric springtime stratospheric and tropospheric circulation using Complex Empirical Orthogonal Functions (cEOF) to characterise planetary waves of varying amplitude and phase. The leading cEOF represents variability of a zonal wave 1 in the stratosphere that correlates slightly with the Symmetric Southern Annular Mode (S-SAM). The second cEOF (cEOF2) is an alternative representation of the Pacific-South American modes. One phase of this cEOF is also very highly correlated with the Asymmetric SAM (A-SAM) in the troposphere. Springs with an active ENSO tend to lock the cEOF2 to a specific phase, but have no consistent impact on its magnitude. Furthermore, we find indications that the location of Pacific Sea Surface Temperature anomalies affect the phase of the cEOF2. As a result, the methodology proposed in this study provides a deeper understanding of the zonally asymmetric springtime extratropical SH circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hubble Space Telescope Wide‐Field Camera 3 (HST/WFC3) observations spanning 2015 to 2021 confirm a brightening of Uranus' north polar hood feature with time. The vertical aerosol model of Irwin et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-023-02047-0) (IRW23), consisting of a deep haze layer based at ∼5 bar, a 1–2 bar haze layer, and an extended haze rising up from the 1–2 bar layer, was applied to retrievals on HST Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) (HST/STIS) observations (Sromovsky et al., 2014, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2014.05.016, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2018.06.026) revealing a reduction in cloud‐top CH4 volume mixing ratio (VMR) (i.e., above the deep ∼5 bar haze) by an average of 0.0019 ± 0.0003 between 40–80◦N (∼10% average reduction) from 2012 to 2015. A combination of latitudinal retrievals on the HST/WFC3 and HST/STIS data sets, again employing the IRW23 model, reveal a temporal thickening of the 1–2 bar haze layer to be the main cause of the polar hood brightening, finding an average increase in integrated opacity of 1.09 ± 0.08 (∼33% increase) at 0.8 µm north of ∼45°N, concurrent with a decrease in the imaginary refractive index spectrum of the 1–2 bar haze layer north of ∼40°N and longwards of ∼0.7 µm. Small contributions to the brightening were found from a thickening of the deep aerosol layer, with an average increase in integrated opacity of 0.6 ± 0.1 (58% increase) north of 45°N between 2012 and 2015, and from the aforementioned decrease in CH4 VMR. Our results are consistent with the slowing of a stratospheric meridional circulation, exhibiting subsidence at the poles. Plain Language Summary: Uranus' north polar hood—a bright cap‐like feature encircling the northern polar region within its atmosphere—is observed to be brightening over time. Using several observations of Uranus captured between 2012 and 2021 by the Hubble Space Telescope, this study aims to pinpoint, for the first time, the specific changes occurring within the atmosphere leading to this evolution. Analysis of the observations confirmed the predominant cause of the hood's brightening to be changes in the scattering properties of the atmosphere's aerosol layers. A vertical aerosol model consisting of 3 distinct haze layers was employed to investigate these changes. We find that the hood's brightening mainly stems from changes in the middle haze layer in the model (centered at 1–2 bar), finding a thickening of this layer concurrent with an increase in the reflectivity of its aerosols over time at latitudes coincident with the north polar hood (∼45–90°N). Small contributions to the temporal brightening were also found from a ∼10% reduction in cloud‐top methane and a thickening of the deepest haze layer in the model (centered at ∼5 bar) at north polar hood latitudes. Key Points: We confirm that the brightening of Uranus' north polar hood is predominantly due to changes in aerosol scatteringA temporal thickening and increase in aerosol reflectivity of Irwin et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-023-02047-0)'s 1–2 bar haze is the main cause of the brighteningWe find a further reduction in polar cloud‐top methane over time from retrievals carried out on Hubble Space Telescope's/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph observations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratospheric ozone is expected to recover by the mid-century due to the success of the Montreal Protocol in regulating the emission of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). In the Arctic, ozone abundances are projected to surpass historical levels due to the combined effect of decreasing ODSs and elevated greenhouse gases (GHGs). While long-term changes in stratospheric ozone have been shown to be a major driver of future surface climate in the Southern Hemisphere during summertime, the dynamical and climatic impacts of elevated ozone levels in the Arctic have not been investigated. In this study, we use two chemistry climate models (the SOlar Climate Ozone Links – Max Planck Ocean Model (SOCOL-MPIOM) and the Community Earth System Model – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM)) to assess the climatic impacts of future changes in Arctic ozone on stratospheric dynamics and surface climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the 21st century. Under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) examined in this work, Arctic ozone returns to pre-industrial levels by the middle of the century. Thereby, the increase in Arctic ozone in this scenario warms the lower Arctic stratosphere; reduces the strength of the polar vortex, advancing its breakdown; and weakens the Brewer–Dobson circulation. The ozone-induced changes in springtime generally oppose the effects of GHGs on the polar vortex. In the troposphere, future changes in Arctic ozone induce a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, pushing the jet equatorward over the North Atlantic. These impacts of future ozone changes on NH surface climate are smaller than the effects of GHGs, but they are remarkably robust among the two models employed in this study, canceling out a portion of the GHG effects (up to 20 % over the Arctic). In the stratosphere, Arctic ozone changes cancel out a much larger fraction of the GHG-induced signal (up to 50 %–100 %), resulting in no overall change in the projected springtime stratospheric northern annular mode and a reduction in the GHG-induced delay of vortex breakdown of around 15 d. Taken together, our results indicate that future changes in Arctic ozone actively shape the projected changes in the stratospheric circulation and their coupling to the troposphere, thereby playing an important and previously unrecognized role as a driver of the large-scale atmospheric circulation response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational monitoring of the stratospheric transport circulation, the Brewer-Dobson-Circulation (BDC), is crucial to estimate any decadal to long-term changes therein, a prerequisite to interpret trends in stratospheric composition and to constrain the consequential impacts on climate. The transport time along the BDC (i.e., the mean age of stratospheric air, AoA) can best be deduced from trace gas measurements of tracers which increase linearly in time and are chemically passive. The gas SF 6 is often used to deduce AoA, because it has been increasing monotonically since the ~1950s, and previously its chemical sinks in the mesosphere have been assumed to be negligible for AoA estimates. However, recent studies have shown that the chemical sinks of SF 6 are stronger than assumed, and become increasingly relevant with rising SF 6 concentrations. To adjust biases in AoA that result from the chemical SF 6 sinks, we here propose a simple correction scheme for SF 6-based AoA estimates accounting for the time-dependent effects of chemical sinks. The correction scheme is based on theoretical considerations with idealized assumptions, resulting in a relation between ideal AoA and apparent AoA which is a function of the tropospheric reference time-series of SF 6 and of the AoA-dependent effective lifetime of SF 6. The correction method is thoroughly tested within a self-consistent data set from a climate model that includes explicit calculation of chemical SF 6 sinks. It is shown within the model that the correction successfully reduces biases in SF 6-based AoA to less than 5 % for mean ages below 5 years. Tests with using only sub-sampled data for deriving the fit coefficients show that applying the correction scheme even with imperfect knowledge of the sink is far superior to not applying a sink correction. Further, we show that based on currently available measurements, we are not able to constrain the fit parameters of the correction scheme based on observational data alone. However, the model-based correction curve lies within the observational uncertainty, and we thus recommend to use the model-derived fit coefficients until more high-quality measurements will be able to further constrain the correction scheme. The application of the correction scheme to AoA from satellites and in-situ data suggests that it is highly beneficial to reconcile different observational estimates of mean AoA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme disruptions of the wintertime polar vortex that can alter the tropospheric weather for over 2 months. However, the reasons why only some SSWs have a tropospheric impact are not yet clear. This study analyses the tropospheric impact of SSWs over the Atlantic region as measured by the latitudinal displacement of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet following SSWs. We use reanalysis data for the period 1950–2020 to examine differences in the stratospheric and tropospheric circulation for SSWs with an equatorward (EQ) or a poleward (POLE) shift. Our results show a stronger and more persistent Northern Annular Mode (NAM) signal in the lower stratosphere for EQ than for POLE, beginning 2 weeks before the onset date. In the troposphere, we find precursory signals of the Atlantic jet behavior over Siberia, consistent with previous studies, and also over the central North Pacific and central Europe. In particular, our results suggest that the noncanonical poleward jet shift response to SSWs is in part modulated by circulation anomalies over the central North Pacific, and that these are in turn connected to the cold phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Further analysis of the enhanced predictability given by these precursors suggests that the sign of the lower-stratospheric NAM and the geopotential anomalies over the central North Pacific significantly affect the probability of having an EQ or POLE response of the Atlantic jet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Saturn's northern summertime hemisphere was mapped by JWST/Mid‐Infrared Instrument (4.9–27.9 µm) in November 2022, tracing the seasonal evolution of temperatures, aerosols, and chemical species in the 5 years since the end of the Cassini mission. The spectral region between reflected sunlight and thermal emission (5.1–6.8 µm) is mapped for the first time, enabling retrievals of phosphine, ammonia, and water, alongside a system of two aerosol layers (an upper tropospheric haze p < 0.3 bars, and a deeper cloud layer at 1–2 bars). Ammonia displays substantial equatorial enrichment, suggesting similar dynamical processes to those found in Jupiter's equatorial zone. Saturn's North Polar Stratospheric Vortex has warmed since 2017, entrained by westward winds at p < 10 mbar, and exhibits localized enhancements in several hydrocarbons. The strongest latitudinal temperature gradients are co‐located with the peaks of the zonal winds, implying wind decay with altitude. Reflectivity contrasts at 5–6 µm compare favorably with albedo contrasts observed by Hubble, and several discrete vortices are observed. A warm equatorial stratospheric band in 2022 is not consistent with a 15‐year repeatability for the equatorial oscillation. A stacked system of windshear zones dominates Saturn's equatorial stratosphere, and implies a westward equatorial jet near 1–5 mbar at this epoch. Lower stratospheric temperatures, and local minima in the distributions of several hydrocarbons, imply low‐latitude upwelling and a reversal of Saturn's interhemispheric circulation since equinox. Latitudinal distributions of stratospheric ethylene, benzene, methyl, and carbon dioxide are presented for the first time, and we report the first detection of propane bands in the 8–11 µm region. Plain Language Summary: The Saturn system, with its seasonally varying atmosphere, delicate rings, and myriad satellites, presented an ideal early target for JWST. Saturn's extended disc, rapid rotation, and infrared brightness provided a challenge for the small fields‐of‐view of the Mid‐Infrared Instrument (MIRI), requiring a mosaic to map Saturn's northern summertime hemisphere. This exquisite data set reveals Saturn's banded structure, discrete vortices, the warm polar vortices, and the continued evolution of an oscillatory pattern of warm and cool anomalies over Saturn's equator. We show evidence that a stratospheric circulation pattern detected by Cassini during northern winter has now fully reversed in northern summer, with the low‐latitude stratosphere being cool and depleted in aerosols due to summertime upwelling. MIRI provides access to spectral regions that were not possible with the Cassini spacecraft, particularly in the 5–7 μm region where reflected sunlight and thermal emission blend together. Ammonia and phosphine are enriched at Saturn's equator, suggesting strong mixing from the deeper troposphere. MIRI's high sensitivity enables the first identification of previously unseen emission propane bands, along with the first measurements of the distribution of several gaseous species: tropospheric water, and stratospheric ethylene, benzene, methyl, and carbon dioxide. Key Points: Saturn's northern summertime hemisphere was mapped by JWST/Mid‐Infrared Instrument (MIRI) to study seasonal evolution of temperatures, aerosols, and compositionThe data show evidence for changing temperatures and winds in the equatorial oscillation, polar vortices, and interhemispheric stratospheric circulationMIRI spectral coverage and sensitivity enables mapping of several gases for the first time, particularly in ranges inaccessible to Cassini [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dominant pattern of Northern Hemisphere extratropical climate variability is the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), which in wintertime represents the coupling of the stratospheric and tropospheric circulations. The internal variability associated with the NAM has been shown to give rise to substantial uncertainty in climate projections of regional surface air temperatures (SATs), but it's unclear how much of this variability arises from stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes. Here, using three large‐ensemble coupled climate model simulations from 1850 to 2100 with varying fidelity of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes, we demonstrate that regional SAT variability across timescales is amplified when the tropospheric NAM is coupled to the stratospheric NAM. Moreover, models that lack adequate simulation of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes may not capture the magnitude of uncertainty in near‐term SAT projections associated with this coupling. Plain Language Summary: Large‐scale atmospheric circulation variability drives substantial variation in regional surface air temperatures (SATs), so that even on 30–40 year timescales local cooling trends are possible even as global‐mean temperatures increase. We provide evidence that when the stratospheric mean flow is coupled to the tropospheric mean flow, the decadal variability of SATs is amplified in some regions. Some models do not represent well the observed coupling of the stratosphere to the troposphere, and these models may underestimate decadal variability associated with this coupling. Key Points: The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) exhibits decadal variability that can accelerate or slow the rate of anthropogenic regional surface warmingAmplified decadal variability of extratropical surface temperatures occurs when the NAM is coupled from the stratosphere to the troposphereModels that fail to adequately capture vertical coupling may underestimate the magnitude of decadal variations in surface air temperatures [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme stratospheric wave activity has been suggested to be connected to surface temperature anomalies, but some key processes are not well understood. Using observations, we show that the stratospheric events featuring weaker‐than‐normal wave activity are associated with increased North American (NA) cold extreme risks before and near the event onset, accompanied by less frequent atmospheric river (AR) events on the west coast of the United States. Strong stratospheric wave events, on the other hand, exhibit a tropospheric weather regime transition. They are preceded by NA warm anomalies and increased AR frequency over the west coast, followed by increased risks of NA cold extremes and north‐shifted ARs over the Atlantic. Moreover, these links between the stratosphere and troposphere are attributed to the vertical structure of wave coupling. Weak wave events show a wave structure of westward tilt with increasing altitudes, while strong wave events feature a shift from westward tilt to eastward tilt during their life cycle. This wave phase shift indicates vertical wave coupling and likely regional planetary wave reflection. Further examinations of CMIP6 models show that models with a degraded representation of stratospheric wave structure exhibit biases in the troposphere during strong wave events. Specifically, models with a stratospheric ridge weaker than the reanalysis exhibit a weaker tropospheric signal. Our findings suggest that the vertical coupling of extreme stratospheric wave activity should be evaluated in the model representation of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling. Plain Language Summary: It is challenging to predict cold spells beyond 2 weeks due to chaotic weather systems. Taking into account stratospheric variability may push predictions beyond this limit. Previous studies have suggested that a stratospheric circulation pattern is connected to surface temperature. Strong and weak stratospheric wave events are defined based on the phase of this pattern. In observations, we find more frequent cold spells over North America and less precipitation over the west coast before and around weak wave events. On the other hand, strong wave events correspond to significant weather changes. Warmer weather over North America and more precipitation over the west coast occur before strong wave events, while more frequent cold spells over North America take place around 10 days later. We reveal that the weather changes during strong wave events correspond to a transition in the vertical structure of planetary waves. State‐of‐the‐art climate models capture the overall linkage between stratospheric wave events and surface conditions. We further illustrate that the models incapable of simulating a realistic stratospheric wave pattern tend to show larger biases in the troposphere during strong wave events. Our findings urge the need to improve the stratospheric wave representation in climate models. Key Points: Increased risks of cold spells over North America follow strong stratospheric wave events or precede weak stratospheric wave eventsThe vertical wave coupling during strong wave events features a shift of vertical wave phase line from westward tilt to eastward tiltIntermodel spread in stratospheric wave structure correlates with tropospheric circulation anomalies during strong wave events [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using 20 quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-resolving models from phases 5/6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6), this study examines the projected Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical response to the QBO. Nine of the 22 models simulate decelerated circumpolar westerlies during easterly QBO (EQBO) in the historical climate as is observed, though only ∼30% of the observed change is reproduced in the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of these high-skill models. These high-skill models project an enhanced stratospheric QBO teleconnection for both emissions scenarios. Further, the stratospheric wind anomaly in high latitudes is projected to move to midlatitudes in future scenarios. The climatological subtropical jet is projected to strengthen, while tropical easterlies are projected to weaken. As a consequence, upward wave activity in the future appears to become more sensitive to the QBO phase. Enhanced upward propagation of waves in mid- to high latitudes during EQBO are much stronger in future scenarios than in historical simulations. The anomalous downwelling over the Antarctic, as part of the Brewer–Dobson deep branch response to EQBO, is also projected to strengthen, corresponding to increased warm anomalies. In future scenarios, the areal extent of the deep convective response to EQBO over the Maritime Continent widens and includes a sharper reduction in outgoing longwave radiation, albeit with southward expansion from Indonesia to Australia. The enhancement and spatial shift in the stratospheric polar vortex pathway and tropical convection pathway subsequently lead to changes in the tropospheric QBO signal. An annular mode–like response forms in the troposphere and near-surface in the present climate, whereas this pattern shifts farther equatorward in future projections with circulation anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean amplifying. Significance Statement: The influence of the equatorial stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) has been reported to intensify in the Northern Hemisphere under climate change, even as the QBO wind magnitude weakens. It is still unknown whether the influence of the QBO on the Southern Hemisphere intensifies or weakens in a warm climate. Using simulations from multiple models, this study finds that the influence of the QBO on the Southern Hemisphere is projected to strengthen in most models even as the QBO weakens. Two QBO pathways are explored, including the stratospheric polar vortex route and the tropical convection pathway, both of which are projected to amplify in both the moderate- and high-emissions scenarios. In addition to the amplification of the QBO signals in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, an equatorward shift of the maximum anomalies is also projected. That is, the maximum easterly anomalies in the Antarctic stratosphere during easterly QBO and the annular mode–like pattern in the troposphere or the near-surface shifts farther equatorward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the recent four decades since 1980, a series of modern climate satellites were launched, allowing for the measurement and record-keeping of multiple climate parameters, especially over the polar regions where traditional observations are difficult to obtain. China has been actively engaging in polar expeditions. Many observations were conducted during this period, accompanied by improved Earth climate models, leading to a series of insightful understandings concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate changes. Here, we review the recent progress China has made concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate change research over the past decade. The Arctic temperature increase is much higher than the global-mean warming rate, associated with a rapid decline in sea ice, a phenomenon called the Arctic Amplification. The Antarctic climate changes showed a zonally asymmetric pattern over the past four decades, with most of the fastest changes occurring over West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The Arctic and Antarctic climate changes were driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and ozone loss, while tropical-polar teleconnections play important roles in driving the regional climate changes and extreme events over the polar regions. Polar climate changes may also feedback to the entire Earth climate system. The adjustment of the circulation in both the troposphere and the stratosphere contributed to the interactions between the polar climate changes and lower latitudes. Climate change has also driven rapid Arctic and Southern ocean acidification. Chinese researchers have made a series of advances in understanding these processes, as reviewed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water vapor plays an important role in many aspects of the climate system, by affecting radiation, cloud formation, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. Even the low stratospheric water vapor content provides an important climate feedback, but current climate models show a substantial moist bias in the lowermost stratosphere. Here we report crucial sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere to the abundance of water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere. We show from a mechanistic climate model experiment and inter-model variability that lowermost stratospheric water vapor decreases local temperatures, and thereby causes an upward and poleward shift of subtropical jets, a strengthening of the stratospheric circulation, a poleward shift of the tropospheric eddy-driven jet and regional climate impacts. The mechanistic model experiment in combination with atmospheric observations further shows that the prevailing moist bias in current models is likely caused by the transport scheme, and can be alleviated by employing a less diffusive Lagrangian scheme. The related effects on atmospheric circulation are of similar magnitude as climate change effects. Hence, lowermost stratospheric water vapor exerts a first order effect on atmospheric circulation and improving its representation in models offers promising prospects for future research. This study investigates the role of water in the lower-most stratosphere, affecting dynamics of the stratosphere and troposphere, and shows that common water vapor transport schemes can cause biases, present in nearly all modern climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sensitivity of atmospheric ozone to geomagnetic storms and reduced cosmic rays' (CRs) intensity (called Forbush decrease [FD]) has been noticed for many years. However, it is still unclear what the factors affecting ozone density are—whether these are the complex changes induced by geomagnetic storms in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere, or it is the severe reduction of CRs accessing Earth's lower atmosphere. Analyzing two strong geomagnetic storms, accompanied by FDs, and another FD occurred in geomagnetically quiet conditions, we conclude that observed ozone changes support the idea about the existence of an additional source of ozone in the lower stratosphere. The ion‐molecular reactions of catalytic ozone production are initiated by secondary ionization, produced by cosmic radiation at these levels. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the strongest ozone depletion beneath its maximum is found in regions with the severest reduction of CR flux. Moreover, the time delay of ozone response (∼2 days), is short enough to be attributed to changes in circulation. In addition, we have examined the changes in the sea level pressure during the analyzed events and found out that the surface pressure follows dynamically the spatial pattern of the ozone changes, forced by the reduced amount of precipitating energetic particles in the atmosphere. Plain Language Summary: Theoretical estimates of the efficiency of the lower stratospheric ion‐molecular reactions suggest an existence of another source of ozone (different from the well‐known photo‐dissociation mechanism). The conditions necessary for activation of autocatalytic ozone production require: (a) increased density of the low energy electrons (naturally produced at these levels by cosmic rays) and (b) reduced amount of water molecules above the tropopause. The short‐lasting periods of a significantly decreased cosmic radiation—known as Forbush decreases (FDs)—provide a good opportunity for testing the above hypothesis. In this paper, we have compared the spatial distribution of three different FDs with changes in the lower stratospheric ozone density. We show that the strongest ozone depletion (beneath the ozone layer maximum) coincides very well with the largest magnitude of the FD. The time delay of ozone response to the applied forcing is too short, so the ozone depletion could not be attributed to the stratospheric circulations (as usually done). This result could be interpreted as an indirect confirmation of the importance of energetic particles, precipitating in the Earth's atmosphere, for the spatial‐temporal variability of the lower stratospheric ozone density. Key Points: The response of ozone profile to the reduced cosmic ray intensity (known as Forbush decrease [FD]) is investigatedWe found that atmospheric ozone beneath its maximum is reduced in periods of FDsThis result is an indirect confirmation of the existence of secondary source of ozone in the lower stratosphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The representation of the stratosphere and stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes is evaluated in the subseasonal Global Ensemble Forecast System, version 12 (GEFSv12), hindcasts. The GEFSv12 hindcasts develop systematic stratospheric biases with increasing lead time, including a too strong boreal wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. In the tropical stratosphere, the GEFSv12 winds and temperatures associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) tend to decay with lead time such that they underestimate the observed amplitudes; consistently, the QBO-associated mean meridional circulation is too weak. The hindcasts predict extreme polar vortex events (including sudden stratospheric warmings and vortex intensifications) about 13–14 days in advance, and extreme lower-stratospheric eddy heat flux events about 6–10 days in advance. However, GEFSv12’s ability to predict these events is likely affected by its zonal-mean circulation biases, which increases the rates of false alarms and missed detections. Nevertheless, GEFSv12 shows stratosphere–troposphere coupling relationships that agree well with reanalysis and other subseasonal forecast systems. For instance, GEFSv12 reproduces reanalysis relationships between polar vortex strength and the Northern Annular Mode in the troposphere. It also exhibits enhanced weeks 3–5 prediction skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation index when initialized during strong and weak polar vortex states compared to neutral states. Furthermore, GEFSv12 shows significant differences in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) amplitudes and enhanced MJO predictive skill in week 4 during easterly versus westerly QBO phases, though these results are sensitive to the level used to define the QBO. Our results provide a baseline from which future GEFS updates may be measured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic Total Column Ozone (TCO) gradually began to recover around 2000, and a large number of studies have pointed out that the recovery of the Antarctic TCO is most significant in the austral early spring (September). Based on the Bodeker Scientific Filled Total Column Ozone and ERA5 reanalysis dataset covering 1979–2019, the variation characteristics of the Antarctic TCO and stratospheric circulation for the TCO ‘depletion’ period (1979–1999) and the ‘recovery’ period (2000–2019) are analyzed in September. Results show that: (1) Stratospheric elements significantly related to the TCO have corresponding changes during the two eras. (2) The interannual variability of the TCO and the above-mentioned stratospheric circulation elements in the recovery period are stronger than those in the depletion period. (3) Compared with the depletion period, due to the stronger amplitude of the planetary wave 1, stronger Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux corresponds to EP flux convergence, larger negative eddy heat flux, and positive eddy momentum flux in the stratosphere during the recovery period. The polar temperature rises in the lower and middle stratosphere and the polar vortex weakens in the middle and upper stratosphere, accompanied by the diminished area of PSC. This contributes to the understanding of Antarctic ozone recovery.