1. Using Better Climate Prediction in the Implementation of National Action Programmes — (Eastern) Europe.
- Author
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Allan, R., Förstner, U., Salomons, W., Sivakumar, Mannava V. K., Ndiang'ui, Ndegwa, and Alexandrov, Vesselin
- Abstract
According to the UNCCD (United Nation Convention to Combat Desertification) affected country Parties have to prepare, make public and implement National Action Programmes (NAPs) as the central element of the strategy to combat desertification and mitigate the effects of drought. NAPs could involve strengthening of drought preparedness and management, including drought contingency plans at the local, national, sub-regional and regional levels, which take into consideration seasonal to interannual climate predictions. In this paper the question on application of climate predictions in (Eastern) European countries is discussed. Results from a survey on CLIPS (Climate Information and Prediction Services) activities in the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) from Eastern Europe are considered. Capabilities of certain Eastern European countries in the development of their own seasonal to interannual predictions or adaptation and interpretation of predictions issued by specialized climate prediction centers are also listed. A short overview on the contemporarary approaches towards better seasonal to interannual prediction and climate forecasting is done within the paper, as well. Seasonal forecasts can be developed using mathematical models of the climate system. A recent trend is to examine the potential use of regional climate models. In Europe the multi-model approach seems to be the most adequate to produce reliable probabilistic climate forecasts. EU-funded project such as ENSEMBLES, EUROCLIM, CECILIA evaluating the merits of the current approaches and methods in the field are mentioned, too. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2007
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