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In Kenya, very little research has been carried out on the topic of the informal sector. This paper estimates the size of the Kenyan informal sector for the period 1970–2018. In light of our analysis of the stationary properties of the data, which suggests a mixture of I(0) and I(1) variables, this study specifies an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), which is applied to variables that pose such attributes. In addition, the model is good for small sample size observation, a characteristic that is common among developing countries. Our estimates indicate that this sector is quite large and has grown over time to about 32% of the country's GDP or nearly one-third of the size of the recorded GDP. These results are consistent with the stylized fact about the Kenyan economy, in particular the large number of individuals employed in small businesses and trading as well as the number of tax returns filed on an annual basis versus the stated level of employment. The finding of a significant informal sector also has implications for the conduct of fiscal policy. The sector should not be wound abruptly since it provides employment to many Kenyans. The fiscal policy should aim at reducing the tax burden so that the participants in the informal sector gradually formalize their businesses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dairy production in Kenya is important and dominated by small-holder farmers who market their produce through small-scale traders in the informal sector. Method: This study aimed to determine the prevalence of aflatoxin (AFM1) in informally marketed milk in peri-urban Nairobi, Kenya, and to assess knowledge of milk traders on aflatoxins using questionnaires. A total of 96 samples were analyzed for AFM1 using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. In addition, boiling and fermentation experiments were carried out in the laboratory. Results: All samples had AFM1 above the limit of detection (5 ng/kg) (mean of 290.3 ± 663.4 ng/kg). Two-thirds of the samples had AFM1 levels above 50 ng/kg and 7.5% of the samples exceeded 500 ng/kg. Most of the traders had low (69.8%) or medium (30.2%) knowledge. Educated (p = 0.01) and female traders (p= 0.04) were more knowledgeable. Experimentally, fermenting milk to lala (a traditional fermented drink) and yogurt significantly reduced AFM1 levels (p< 0.01) (71.8% reduction in lala after incubation at room temperature for 15 h, and 73.6% reduction in yogurt after incubation at 45ºC for 4h). Boiling had no effect. Conclusion: The study concluded that the prevalence of raw milk with AFM1 was high, while knowledge was low. Fermentation reduced the AFM1 levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]