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BackgroundNeuralgic amyotrophy (NA) is an acute inflammation of nerves within the brachial plexus territory leading to severe pain and multifocal paresis resulting in >60% of patients having residual complaints and functional limitations correlated with scapular dyskinesia. Our primary aim was to compare the effects of multidisciplinary rehabilitation (MR), focused on motor relearning to improve scapular dyskinesia and self-management strategies for reducing pain and fatigue, with usual care (UC) on shoulder, arm and hand functional capability in patients with NA.MethodsIn a non-blinded randomised controlled trial (RCT), patients with NA (aged≥18 years, scapular dyskinesia, >8 weeks after onset) were randomised to either an MR or an UC group. MR consisted of a diagnostic multidisciplinary consultation and eight sessions of physical and occupational therapy. Primary outcome was functional capability of the shoulder, arm and hand assessed with the Shoulder Rating Questionnaire–Dutch Language Version (SRQ-DLV).ResultsWe included 47 patients with NA; due to drop-out, there were 22 participants in MR and 15 in UC for primary analysis. The mean group difference adjusted for sex, age and SRQ-DLV baseline score was 8.60 (95%CI: 0.26 to 16.94, p=0.044). The proportion attaining a minimal clinically relevant SRQ-DLV improvement (≥12) was larger for the MR group (59%) than the UC group (33%) with a number needed to treat of 4.ConclusionThis RCT shows that an MR programme focused on motor relearning to improve scapular dyskinesia, combined with self-management strategies for reducing pain and fatigue, shows more beneficial effects on shoulder, arm and hand functional capability than UC in patients with NA.Trial registration numberNCT03441347.

ObjectiveThere is growing evidence that the course of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) may be influenced beneficially by applying high-caloric food supplements (HCSs). However, it is unknown which composition of nutrients offers optimal tolerability and weight gain.MethodsWe conducted a randomised controlled study (Safety and Tolerability of Ultra-high-caloric Food Supplements in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS); TOLCAL-ALS study) in 64 patients with possible, probable or definite ALS according to El Escorial criteria. Patients were randomised into four groups: a high-caloric fatty supplement (HCFS; 405 kcal/day, 100% fat), an ultra-high-caloric fatty supplement (UHCFS; 810 kcal/day, 100% fat), an ultra-high-caloric, carbohydrate-rich supplement (UHCCS; 900 kcal/day, 49% carbohydrates) and an open control (OC) group without any supplement. The primary endpoint was tolerability. Patients were followed up over 4 weeks.ResultsGastrointestinal side effects were most frequent in the UHCFS group (75.0%), while loss of appetite was most frequent in the UHCCS group (35.3%). During intervention, patients gained +0.9 kg/month of body weight (IQR −0.9 to 1.5; p=0.03) in the HCFS group and +0.9 kg/month (IQR −0.8 to 2.0; p=0.05) in the UHCFS group. A non-significant trend for weight gain (+0.6 kg/month (IQR −0.3 to 1.9; p=0.08)) was observed in the UHCCS group. Patients in OC group continued to lose body weight (−0.5 kg/month, IQR −1.4 to 1.3; p=0.42).InterpretationThe findings suggest that HCSs frequently cause mild to moderate tolerability issues in patients with ALS, most notably gastrointestinal symptoms in high-fat supplements, and loss of appetite in high-carbohydrate supplements. All three HCSs tested are suited to increase body weight.

Smartphone-RCCT Database: a registry of bibliographic references of RCTs of smartphone apps used by patients to manage their chronic conditions. This is a freely available database developed by the Institute for Complementary and Integrative Medicine (Zurich University Hospital, University of Zurich).

Funder: National Institute for Health Research Applied Research Collaboration South West Peninsula, BACKGROUND: The last 20 years have seen a marked increase in the use of cluster randomised trials (CRTs) in schools to evaluate interventions for improving pupil health outcomes. Schools have limited resources and participating in full-scale trials can be challenging and costly, given their main purpose is education. Feasibility studies can be used to identify challenges with implementing interventions and delivering trials. This systematic review summarises methodological characteristics and objectives of school-based cluster randomised feasibility studies in the United Kingdom (UK). METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE from inception to 31 December 2020. Eligible papers were school-based feasibility CRTs that included health outcomes measured on pupils. RESULTS: Of 3285 articles identified, 24 were included. School-based feasibility CRTs have been increasingly used in the UK since the first publication in 2008. Five (21%) studies provided justification for the use of the CRT design. Three (13%) studies provided details of a formal sample size calculation, with only one of these allowing for clustering. The median (IQR; range) recruited sample size was 7.5 (4.5 to 9; 2 to 37) schools and 274 (179 to 557; 29 to 1567) pupils. The most common feasibility objectives were to estimate the potential effectiveness of the intervention (n = 17; 71%), assess acceptability of the intervention (n = 16; 67%), and estimate the recruitment/retention rates (n = 15; 63%). Only one study was used to assess whether cluster randomisation was appropriate, and none of the studies that randomised clusters before recruiting pupils assessed the possibility of recruitment bias. Besides potential effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and the intra-cluster correlation coefficient, no studies quantified the precision of the feasibility parameter estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Feasibility CRTs are increasingly used in schools prior to definitive trials of interventions for improving health in pupils. The average sample size of studies included in this review would be large enough to estimate pupil-level feasibility parameters (e.g., percentage followed up) with reasonable precision. The review highlights the need for clearer sample size justification and better reporting of the precision with which feasibility parameters are estimated. Better use could be made of feasibility CRTs to assess challenges that are specific to the cluster design. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO: CRD42020218993.

Background Many randomised controlled trials (RCTs) struggle to recruit, despite valiant efforts. The QRI (QuinteT Recruitment Intervention) uses innovative research methods to optimise recruitment by revealing previously hidden barriers related to the perceptions and experiences of recruiters and patients, and targeting remedial actions. It was designed to be integrated with RCTs anticipating difficulties at the outset. A new version of the intervention (QRI-Two) was developed for RCTs already underway with enrolment shortfalls. Methods QRIs in 12 RCTs with enrolment shortfalls during 2007–2017 were reviewed to document which of the research methods used could be rapidly applied to successfully identify recruitment barriers. These methods were then included in the new streamlined QRI-Two intervention which was applied in 20 RCTs in the USA and Europe during 2018–2019. The feasibility of the QRI-Two was investigated, recruitment barriers and proposed remedial actions were documented, and the QRI-Two protocol was finalised. Results The review of QRIs from 2007 to 2017 showed that previously unrecognised recruitment barriers could be identified but data collection for the full QRI required time and resources usually unavailable to ongoing RCTs. The streamlined QRI-Two focussed on analysis of screening/accrual data and RCT documents (protocol, patient-information), with discussion of newly diagnosed barriers and potential remedial actions in a workshop with the RCT team. Four RCTs confirmed the feasibility of the rapid application of the QRI-Two. When the QRI-Two was applied to 14 RCTs underway with enrolment shortfalls, an array of previously unknown/underestimated recruitment barriers related to issues such as equipoise, intervention preferences, or study presentation was identified, with new insights into losses of eligible patients along the recruitment pathway. The QRI-Two workshop enabled discussion of the newly diagnosed barriers and potential remedial actions to improve recruitment in collaboration with the RCT team. As expected, the QRI-Two performed less well in six RCTs at the start-up stage before commencing enrolment. Conclusions The QRI-Two can be applied rapidly, diagnose previously unrecognised recruitment barriers, and suggest remedial actions in RCTs underway with enrolment shortfalls, providing opportunities for RCT teams to develop targeted actions to improve recruitment. The effectiveness of the QRI-Two in improving recruitment requires further evaluation.

BackgroundCoformulated sodium phenylbutyrate/taurursodiol (PB/TURSO) was shown to prolong survival and slow functional decline in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).ObjectiveDetermine whether PB/TURSO prolonged tracheostomy/ventilation-free survival and/or reduced first hospitalisation in participants with ALS in the CENTAUR trial.MethodsAdults with El Escorial Definite ALS ≤18 months from symptom onset were randomised to PB/ TURSO or placebo for 6 months. Those completing randomised treatment could enrol in an open-label extension (OLE) phase and receive PB/TURSO for ≤30 months. Times to the following individual or combined key events were compared in the originally randomised treatment groups over a period spanning trial start through July 2020 (longest postrandomisation follow-up, 35 months): death, tracheostomy, permanent assisted ventilation (PAV) and first hospitalisation.ResultsRisk of any key event was 47% lower in those originally randomised to PB/TURSO (n=87) versus placebo (n=48, 71% of whom received delayed-start PB/TURSO in the OLE phase) (HR=0.53; 95% CI 0.35 to 0.81; p=0.003). Risks of death or tracheostomy/PAV (HR=0.51; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.84; p=0.007) and first hospitalisation (HR=0.56; 95% CI 0.34 to 0.95; p=0.03) were also decreased in those originally randomised to PB/TURSO.ConclusionsEarly PB/TURSO prolonged tracheostomy/PAV-free survival and delayed first hospitalisation in ALS.Trial registration numberNCT03127514;NCT03488524.

BackgroundLack of progress in finding disease-modifying treatments for dementia may be due to heterogeneity in treatment effects among subgroups, such as by sex. Therefore, we investigated the characteristics of dementia trials completed in the last decade, with a focus on women’s representation and sex-disaggregated outcomes.MethodsClinical trials on dementia completed since 2010 were identified from ClinicalTrials.gov. Randomised, phase III/IV trials with ≥100 participants were selected to quantify women’s representation among participants, by computing the participation to prevalence ratio (PPR) and investigate whether sex-disaggregated analyses had been performed.ResultsA total of 1351 trials were identified between January 2010 and August 2021 (429 520 participants), of which 118 were eligible for analysis of women’s representation and sex-stratified analysis. Only 113 reported the sex of participants and were included in the analysis of women’s representation. Of the 110 469 participants in these 113 trials, 58% were women, lower than their estimated representation in the global dementia population of 64%. The mean PPR was 0.90 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.94). Women’s participation tended to be higher when the first or last authors of the trial report were women. Eight out of the 118 trials reported sex-disaggregated outcomes, and three of those found significant sex differences in efficacy outcomes. None of the trials reported screening failures or adverse events stratified by sex.ConclusionsOverall, women and men were equally represented in dementia trials carried out over the past decade, but women’s representation was lower than in the underlying dementia population. Sex-disaggregated efficacy and safety outcomes were rarely reported.

Background Cluster randomised trials (CRTs) are increasingly used to evaluate non-pharmacological interventions for improving child health. Although methodological challenges of CRTs are well documented, the characteristics of school-based CRTs with pupil health outcomes have not been systematically described. Our objective was to describe methodological characteristics of these studies in the United Kingdom (UK). Methods MEDLINE was systematically searched from inception to 30th June 2020. Included studies used the CRT design in schools and measured primary outcomes on pupils. Study characteristics were described using descriptive statistics. Results Of 3138 articles identified, 64 were included. CRTs with pupil health outcomes have been increasingly used in the UK school setting since the earliest included paper was published in 1993; 37 (58%) studies were published after 2010. Of the 44 studies that reported information, 93% included state-funded schools. Thirty six (56%) were exclusively in primary schools and 24 (38%) exclusively in secondary schools. Schools were randomised in 56 studies, classrooms in 6 studies, and year groups in 2 studies. Eighty percent of studies used restricted randomisation to balance cluster-level characteristics between trial arms, but few provided justification for their choice of balancing factors. Interventions covered 11 different health areas; 53 (83%) included components that were necessarily administered to entire clusters. The median (interquartile range) number of clusters and pupils recruited was 31.5 (21 to 50) and 1308 (604 to 3201), respectively. In half the studies, at least one cluster dropped out. Only 26 (41%) studies reported the intra-cluster correlation coefficient (ICC) of the primary outcome from the analysis; this was often markedly different to the assumed ICC in the sample size calculation. The median (range) ICC for school clusters was 0.028 (0.0005 to 0.21). Conclusions The increasing pool of school-based CRTs examining pupil health outcomes provides methodological knowledge and highlights design challenges. Data from these studies should be used to identify the best school-level characteristics for balancing the randomisation. Better information on the ICC of pupil health outcomes is required to aid the planning of future CRTs. Improved reporting of the recruitment process will help to identify barriers to obtaining representative samples of schools.

After the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic took hold in the UK, the ActWELL trial team’s plans to present the trial results to participants and other stakeholders had to change. Instead of face-face events, three online events were planned and hosted successfully. In this article, we describe the choices made in planning and organisation of the online events including things we would do differently if we were to do it again. We think that online events are a useful platform when informing participants and other stakeholders of the results of your trial, even beyond the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, and we hope this article can help other trial teams to plan their own online events. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-021-05340-3.

Background Retention of participants is essential to ensure the statistical power and internal validity of clinical trials. Poor participant retention reduces power and can bias the estimates of intervention effect. There is sparse evidence from randomised comparisons of effective strategies to retain participants in randomised trials. Currently, non-randomised evaluations of trial retention interventions embedded in host clinical trials are rejected from the Cochrane review of strategies to improve retention because it only included randomised evaluations. However, the systematic assessment of non-randomised evaluations may inform trialists’ decision-making about retention methods that have been evaluated in a trial context.Therefore, we performed a systematic review to synthesise evidence from non-randomised evaluations of retention strategies in order to supplement existing randomised trial evidence. Methods We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL from 2007 to October 2017. Two reviewers independently screened abstracts and full-text articles for non-randomised studies that compared two or more strategies to increase participant retention in randomised trials. The retention trials had to be nested in real ‘host’ trials ( including feasibility studies) but not hypothetical trials. Two investigators independently rated the risk of bias of included studies using the ROBINS-I tool and determined the certainty of evidence using GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) framework. Results Fourteen non-randomised studies of retention were included in this review. Most retention strategies (in 10 studies) aimed to increase questionnaire response rate. Favourable strategies for increasing questionnaire response rate were telephone follow-up compared to postal questionnaire completion, online questionnaire follow-up compared to postal questionnaire, shortened version of questionnaires versus longer questionnaires, electronically transferred monetary incentives compared to cash incentives, cash compared with no incentive and reminders to non-responders (telephone or text messaging). However, each retention strategy was evaluated in a single observational study. This, together with risk of bias concerns, meant that the overall GRADE certainty was low or very low for all included studies. Conclusions This systematic review provides low or very low certainty evidence on the effectiveness of retention strategies evaluated in non-randomised studies. Some strategies need further evaluation to provide confidence around the size and direction of the underlying effect.

BackgroundThere is concern that increasing demand for student mental health services reflects deteriorating student well-being. We designed a pragmatic, parallel, single-blinded randomised controlled trial hypothesising that providing mindfulness courses to university students would promote their resilience to stress up to a year later. Here we present 1-year follow-up outcomes.MethodsUniversity of Cambridge students without severe mental illness or crisis were randomised (1:1, remote software-generated random numbers), to join an 8-week mindfulness course adapted for university students (Mindfulness Skills for Students (MSS)), or to mental health support as usual (SAU).ResultsWe randomised 616 students; 53% completed the 1-year follow-up questionnaire. Self-reported psychological distress and mental well-being improved in the MSS arm for up to 1 year compared to SAU (pConclusionLoss to follow-up is a limitation, but evidence suggests beneficial effects on students’ average psychological distress that last for at least a year. Effects are on average larger at stressful times, consistent with the hypothesis that this type of mindfulness training increases resilience to stress.Trial registration numberACTRN12615001160527.

BackgroundThe coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19) presents a variety of challenges for ongoing clinical trials, including an inevitably higher rate of missing outcome data, with new and non-standard reasons for missingness. International drug trial guidelines recommend trialists review plans for handling missing data in the conduct and statistical analysis, but clear recommendations are lacking.MethodsWe present a four-step strategy for handling missing outcome data in the analysis of randomised trials that are ongoing during a pandemic. We consider handling missing data arising due to (i) participant infection, (ii) treatment disruptions and (iii) loss to follow-up. We consider both settings where treatment effects for a ‘pandemic-free world’ and ‘world including a pandemic’ are of interest.ResultsIn any trial, investigators should; (1) Clarify the treatment estimand of interest with respect to the occurrence of the pandemic; (2) Establish what data are missing for the chosen estimand; (3) Perform primary analysis under the most plausible missing data assumptions followed by; (4) Sensitivity analysis under alternative plausible assumptions. To obtain an estimate of the treatment effect in a ‘pandemic-free world’, participant data that are clinically affected by the pandemic (directly due to infection or indirectly via treatment disruptions) are not relevant and can be set to missing. For primary analysis, a missing-at-random assumption that conditions on all observed data that are expected to be associated with both the outcome and missingness may be most plausible. For the treatment effect in the ‘world including a pandemic’, all participant data is relevant and should be included in the analysis. For primary analysis, a missing-at-random assumption – potentially incorporating a pandemic time-period indicator and participant infection status – or a missing-not-at-random assumption with a poorer response may be most relevant, depending on the setting. In all scenarios, sensitivity analysis under credible missing-not-at-random assumptions should be used to evaluate the robustness of results. We highlight controlled multiple imputation as an accessible tool for conducting sensitivity analyses.ConclusionsMissing data problems will be exacerbated for trials active during the Covid-19 pandemic. This four-step strategy will facilitate clear thinking about the appropriate analysis for relevant questions of interest.

Background Trial oversight is important for trial governance and conduct. Patients and/or lay members of the public are increasingly included in trial oversight committees, influenced by international patient and public involvement (PPI) initiatives to improve the quality and relevance of research. However, there is a lack of guidance on how to undertake PPI in trial oversight and tokenistic PPI remains an issue. This paper explores how PPI functions in existing trial oversight committees and provides recommendations to optimise PPI in future trials. This was part of a larger study investigating the role and function of oversight committees in trials facing challenges. Methods Using an ethnographic study design, we observed oversight meetings of eight UK trials and conducted semi-structured interviews with members of their trial steering committees (TSCs) and trial management groups (TMGs) including public contributors, trial sponsors and funders. Thematic analysis of data was undertaken, with findings integrated to provide a multi-perspective account of how PPI functions in trial oversight. Results Eight TSC and six TMG meetings from eight trials were observed, and 66 semi-structured interviews conducted with 52 purposively sampled oversight group members, including three public contributors. PPI was reported as beneficial in trial oversight, with public members contributing a patient voice and fulfilling a patient advocacy role. However, public contributors were not always active at oversight meetings and were sometimes felt to have a tokenistic role, with trialists reporting a lack of understanding of how to undertake PPI in trial oversight. To optimise PPI in trial oversight, the following areas were highlighted: the importance of planning effective strategies to recruit public contributors; considering the level of oversight and stage(s) of trial to include PPI; support for public contributors by the trial team between and during oversight meetings. Conclusions We present evidence-based recommendations to inform future PPI in trial oversight. Consideration should be given at trial design stage on how to recruit and involve public contributors within trial oversight, as well as support and mentorship for both public contributors and trialists (in how to undertake PPI effectively). Findings from this study further strengthen the evidence base on facilitating meaningful PPI within clinical trials.

Background In rural China, mortality surveillance data may be an alternative to primary data collection in clinical trials; SmartVA (verbal autopsy) is also a potential alternative for endpoint adjudication. The feasibility and validity of both need to be assessed. Methods We used mortality data from the first 24 months of the China Salt Substitute and Stroke Study (SSaSS) trial and assessed the agreement between (1) mortality surveillance data and face-to-face visits for fact of death; (2) mortality surveillance data and SSaSS adjudication for causes of death; (3) SmartVA and SSaSS adjudication for causes of death; (4) cause-specific mortality fraction of different methods. Face-to-face visits and SSaSS adjudication were taken as reference methods. The agreement was measured by sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV) across different 10th Revision of International Statistical Classification of Diseases chapters. Results One thousand three hundred and sixty-five deaths were included. Mortality surveillance data had 82% sensitivity for fact of death and 81% sensitivity for causes of death, with substantial variances across different disease types and reasonable quality for circulatory death (91% sensitivity and 94% PPV). The sensitivity of SmartVA for causes of death was 61%, with reasonable quality for deaths of external causes of morbidity (90% sensitivity). The leading causes of death from different sources were the same with some variances in the fractions. Conclusion Using mortality surveillance data for fact of death in clinical trials need to account for under-reporting. A face-to-face visit to all participants at the completion of trials may be warranted. Neither mortality surveillance data nor SmartVA provided valid data source for endpoint events.

The frontotemporal dementia (FTD) spectrum is a heterogeneous group of neurodegenerative syndromes with overlapping clinical, molecular and pathological features, all of which challenge the design of clinical trials in these conditions. To date, no pharmacological interventions have been proven effective in significantly modifying the course of these disorders. This study critically reviews the construct and methodology of previously published randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in FTD spectrum disorders in order to identify limitations and potential reasons for negative results. Moreover, recommendations based on the identified gaps are elaborated in order to guide future clinical trial design. A systematic literature review was carried out and presented in conformity with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses criteria. A total of 23 RCTs in cohorts with diagnoses of behavioural and language variants of FTD, corticobasal syndrome and progressive supranuclear palsy syndrome were identified out of the 943 citations retrieved and were included in the qualitative review. Most studies identified were early-phase clinical trials that were small in size, short in duration and frequently underpowered. Diagnoses of populations enrolled in clinical trials were based on clinical presentation and rarely included precision-medicine tools, such as genetic and molecular testing. Uniformity and standardisation of research outcomes in the FTD spectrum are essential. Several elements should be carefully considered and planned in future clinical trials. We anticipate that precision-medicine approaches will be crucial to adequately address heterogeneity in the FTD spectrum research.

BackgroundWe investigated whether a public health intervention—a three-part documentary called Man Up which explored the relationship between masculinity and mental health, well-being and suicidality—could increase men’s intentions to seek help for personal and emotional problems.MethodsWe recruited men aged 18 years or over who were not at risk of suicide to participate in a double-blind randomised controlled trial. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) via computer randomisation to view Man Up (the intervention) or a control documentary. We hypothesised that 4 weeks after viewing Man Up participants would report higher levels of intention to seek help than those who viewed the control documentary. Our primary outcome was assessed using the General Help Seeking Questionnaire, and was analysed for all participants. The trial was registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12616001169437, Universal Trial Number: U1111-1186-1459) and was funded by the Movember Foundation.ResultsThree hundred and fifty-four men were assessed for eligibility for the trial and randomised to view Man Up or the control documentary. Of these, 337 completed all stages (nine participants were lost to follow-up in the intervention group and eight in the control group). Linear regression analysis showed a significant increase in intentions to seek help in the intervention group, but not in the control group (coef.=2.06, 95% CI 0.48 to 3.63, P=0.01).ConclusionsOur trial demonstrates the potential for men’s health outcomes to be positively impacted by novel, media-based public health interventions that focus on traditional masculinity.Trial registration numberACTRN12616001169437, Results.

Objective Stimulation in early childhood can alleviate adverse effects of poverty. In a community-randomised trial, we implemented 2 home-based interventions, each serving as an attention control for the other. One group received an integrated household intervention package (IHIP), whereas the other group received an early child development (ECD) intervention. The primary objective of the study was to evaluate the effect of IHIP on diarrhoea and respiratory infections, the details of which are described elsewhere. Here, we present the impact of the ECD intervention on early childhood development indicators. Methods In this non-blinded community-randomised trial, an ECD intervention, adapted from the Peruvian government9s National Wawa Wasi ECD programme, was implemented in 25 rural Peruvian Andean communities. We enrolled 534 children aged 6–35 months, from 50 communities randomised 1:1 into ECD and IHIP communities. In ECD communities, trained fieldworkers instructed mothers every 3 weeks over the 12 months study, to stimulate and interact with their children and to use standard programme toys. IHIP communities received an improved stove and hygiene promotion. Using a nationally validated ECD evaluation instrument, all children were assessed at baseline and 12 months later for overall performance on age-specific developmental milestones which fall into 7 developmental domains. Findings At baseline, ECD-group and IHIP-group children performed similarly in all domains. After 12 months, data from 258 ECD-group and 251 IHIP-group children could be analysed. The proportion of children scoring above the mean in their specific age group was significantly higher in the ECD group in all domains (range: 12–23%-points higher than IHIP group). We observed the biggest difference in fine motor skills (62% vs 39% scores above the mean, OR: 2.6, 95% CI 1.7 to 3.9). Conclusions The home-based ECD intervention effectively improved child development overall across domains and separately by investigated domain. Home-based strategies could be a promising component of poverty alleviation programmes seeking to improve developmental outcomes among rural Peruvian children. Trial registration number ISRCTN28191222; results.

This paper looks at an appeal to the authority of biomedical research that has recently been used by empirical economists to motivate and justify their methods. I argue that those who make this appeal mistake the nature of biomedical research. Randomised trials, which are said to have revolutionised biomedical research, are a central methodology, but according to only one paradigm. There is another paradigm at work in biomedical research, the inferentialist paradigm, in which randomised trials play no special role. I outline the inferentialist alternative in broad strokes, apply it to a recent controversy in econometrics and draw some general conclusions concerning econometric methodology.

BackgroundPoor prognosis after intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) is related to haemorrhage characteristics. Along with developing therapeutic interventions, we sought to understand the performance of haemorrhage descriptors in large clinical trials.MethodsClinical and neuroimaging data were obtained for 548 participants with ICH from the Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke (ENOS) trial. Independent observers performed visual categorisation of the largest diameter, measured volume using ABC/2, modified ABC/2, semiautomated segmentation (SAS), fully automatic measurement methods; shape, density and intraventricular haemorrhage were also assessed. Intraobserver and interobserver reliability were determined for these measures.ResultsICH volume was significantly different among standard ABC/2, modified ABC/2 and SAS: (mean) 12.8 (SD 16.3), 8.9 (9.2), 12.8 (13.1) cm3, respectively (p3, p3, pConclusionsFormal measurement of haemorrhage characteristics and visual estimates are reproducible. The standard ABC/2 method is superior to the modified ABC/2 method for quantifying ICH volume.Clinical trial registrationISRCTN9941422.

Rich meta-epidemiological data sets have been collected to explore associations between intervention effect estimates and study-level characteristics. Welton et al proposed models for the analysis of meta-epidemiological data, but these models are restrictive because they force heterogeneity among studies with a particular characteristic to be at least as large as that among studies without the characteristic. In this paper we present alternative models that are invariant to the labels defining the 2 categories of studies. To exemplify the methods, we use a collection of meta-analyses in which the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool has been implemented. We first investigate the influence of small trial sample sizes (less than 100 participants), before investigating the influence of multiple methodological flaws (inadequate or unclear sequence generation, allocation concealment, and blinding). We fit both the Welton et al model and our proposed label-invariant model and compare the results. Estimates of mean bias associated with the trial characteristics and of between-trial variances are not very sensitive to the choice of model. Results from fitting a univariable model show that heterogeneity variance is, on average, 88% greater among trials with less than 100 participants. On the basis of a multivariable model, heterogeneity variance is, on average, 25% greater among trials with inadequate/unclear sequence generation, 51% greater among trials with inadequate/unclear blinding, and 23% lower among trials with inadequate/unclear allocation concealment, although the 95% intervals for these ratios are very wide. Our proposed label-invariant models for meta-epidemiological data analysis facilitate investigations of between-study heterogeneity attributable to certain study characteristics.

ObjectiveTo determine (i) the difference in the frequency of serious adverse events (SAEs) reported in trial registrations and their respective primary publications and (ii) the effect of adding SAE data from registries to a network meta-analysis (NMA) in changing the surface under the cumulative ranking (SUCRA) curve values of interventions.DesignSecondary analysis of primary publications from two NMAs.Eligibility criteria for selecting studiesWe included randomised trials published in English after 2005 that were included in two NMAs of pharmacological interventions for Alzheimer’s disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.Data extractionTwo reviewers independently searched multiple international trial registries for registration status and abstracted data from the included study publications and ClinicalTrials.gov.ResultsOf the 203 randomised trials included, 140 (69.0%) were registered with a trial registry and 72 (35.5%) posted results in the registry. The proportion of registered trials increased over time (38.5% in 2005 vs 78.6% in 2014). Of the publications with results posted in a trial registry, 14 (19.4%) had inconsistent reporting of overall SAEs; 7 (10.4%) studies did not report SAEs in the publication but did in the registry. In the 134 randomised trials with a prespecified primary outcome in the registry, 19 studies (9.4%) had a change in the primary outcome in the publication. Adding SAEs reported in registries to the NMAs did not affect the ranking of interventions.ConclusionWe identified inconsistent reporting of SAEs in randomised trials that were included in two NMAs. Findings highlight the importance of including trial registries in the grey literature search and verifying safety data before incorporating it into NMAs.Study registrationosf.io/mk6dr.

Objectives To develop prognostic models for time to 12-month remission and time to treatment failure after initiating antiepileptic drug monotherapy for generalised and unclassified epilepsy. Methods We analysed data from the Standard and New Antiepileptic Drug (arm B) study, a randomised trial that compared initiating treatment with lamotrigine, topiramate and valproate in patients diagnosed with generalised or unclassified epilepsy. Multivariable regression modelling was used to investigate how clinical factors affect the probability of achieving 12-month remission and treatment failure. Results Significant factors in the multivariable model for time to 12-month remission were having a relative with epilepsy, neurological insult, total number of tonic-clonic seizures before randomisation, seizure type and treatment. Significant factors in the multivariable model for time to treatment failure were treatment history (antiepileptic drug treatment prior to randomisation), EEG result, seizure type and treatment. Conclusions The models described within this paper can be used to identify patients most likely to achieve 12-month remission and most likely to have treatment failure, aiding individual patient risk stratification and the design and analysis of future epilepsy trials.

This checklist is for the review of evidence syntheses for treatment efficacy used in decision making based on either efficacy or cost-effectiveness. It is intended to be used for pairwise meta-analysis, indirect comparisons, and network meta-analysis, without distinction. It does not generate a quality rating and is not prescriptive. Instead, it focuses on a series of questions aimed at revealing the assumptions that the authors of the synthesis are expecting readers to accept, the adequacy of the arguments authors advance in support of their position, and the need for further analyses or sensitivity analyses. The checklist is intended primarily for those who review evidence syntheses, including indirect comparisons and network meta-analyses, in the context of decision making but will also be of value to those submitting syntheses for review, whether to decision-making bodies or journals. The checklist has 4 main headings: A) definition of the decision problem, B) methods of analysis and presentation of results, C) issues specific to network synthesis, and D) embedding the synthesis in a probabilistic cost-effectiveness model. The headings and implicit advice follow directly from the other tutorials in this series. A simple table is provided that could serve as a pro forma checklist.

Objectives To investigate whether gravitational valves reduce the risk of overdrainage complications compared with programmable valves in ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt surgery for idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH). Background Patients with iNPH may benefit from VP shunting but are prone to overdrainage complications during posture changes. Gravitational valves with tantalum balls are considered to reduce the risk of overdrainage but their clinical effectiveness is unclear. Methods We conducted a pragmatic, randomised, multicentre trial comparing gravitational with non-gravitational programmable valves in patients with iNPH eligible for VP shunting. The primary endpoint was any clinical or radiological sign (headache, nausea, vomiting, subdural effusion or slit ventricle) of overdrainage 6 months after randomisation. We also assessed disease specific instruments (Black and Kiefer Scale) and Physical and Mental Component Scores of the Short Form 12 (SF-12) generic health questionnaire. Results We enrolled 145 patients (mean (SD) age 71.9 (6.9) years), 137 of whom were available for endpoint analysis. After 6 months, 29 patients in the standard and five patients in the gravitational shunt group developed overdrainage (risk difference −36%, 95% CI −49% to −23%; p

Item does not contain fulltext OBJECTIVE: The second Gynecologic Cancer InterGroup (GCIG) Endometrial Cancer Clinical Trials Planning Meeting was held on December 1, 2012, and included international multidisciplinary representatives of the 24 member groups. The aims were to review recent advances in molecular pathology of endometrial cancer, focusing on molecular-based therapy, and to identify key hypotheses and issues to be addressed through international collaborative clinical trials. METHODS: Reviews and summaries of current knowledge were presented followed by parallel working group sessions for surgery, adjuvant and systemic therapy, and translational research. Plenary discussions were held to integrate translational and clinical issues, and a final discussion session to agree on key trial concepts. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Proposals to take forward on the following trials were agreed: (1) lymphadenectomy to direct adjuvant treatment in women with high-risk endometrial cancer, including a sentinel node substudy; (2) conservative therapy for low-risk endometrial cancers in morbidly obese women with high surgical risks and for fertility-sparing treatment in premenopausal patients; (3) adjuvant therapy for women with early-stage carcinosarcoma. A proposal was made that a GCIG Early Phase Consortium be developed to serve as an international platform for rapid assessment of biomarkers. 01 oktober 2013

Outcomes for patients diagnosed with early breast cancer in developed countries have improved substantially over recent decades. Adjuvant therapies have contributed to this improvement and their benefits have been confirmed in large randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and meta-analyses. Lower event rates, whilst welcome, have created problems for RCTs, that need to be larger and often take longer to provide a reliable result. In an effort to maintain the rate of progress and to obviate the complexity, cost and time required to conduct large RCTs, there has been an increased tendency to rely on observational data to determine a treatment effect and also to accelerate progress by the use of a surrogate marker (pathological complete remission after neoadjuvant chemotherapy). We highlight the pitfalls in these approaches and suggest some simplifications in the conduct of RCTs., Highlights • Surrogate markers are yet to be developed and validated in early breast cancer. • Reliance on observational data to evaluate treatment effects is risky. • Prospective randomised trials are difficult but remain vital to progress. • Research approval processes need simplification and streamlining.

Objectives To develop best practice guidance for the use of retention strategies in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Study Design and Setting Consensus development workshops conducted at two UK Clinical Trials Units. Sixty-six statisticians, clinicians, RCT coordinators, research scientists, research assistants, and data managers associated with RCTs participated. The consensus development workshops were based on the consensus development conference method used to develop best practice for treatment of medical conditions. Workshops commenced with a presentation of the evidence for incentives, communication, questionnaire format, behavioral, case management, and methodological retention strategies identified by a Cochrane review and associated qualitative study. Three simultaneous group discussions followed focused on (1) how convinced the workshop participants were by the evidence for retention strategies, (2) barriers to the use of effective retention strategies, (3) types of RCT follow-up that retention strategies could be used for, and (4) strategies for future research. Summaries of each group discussion were fed back to the workshop. Coded content for both workshops was compared for agreement and disagreement. Agreed consensus on best practice guidance for retention was identified. Results Workshop participants agreed best practice guidance for the use of small financial incentives to improve response to postal questionnaires in RCTs. Use of second-class post was thought to be adequate for postal communication with RCT participants. The most relevant validated questionnaire was considered best practice for collecting RCT data. Barriers identified for the use of effective retention strategies were: the small improvements seen in questionnaire response for the addition of monetary incentives, and perceptions among trialists that some communication strategies are outdated. Furthermore, there was resistance to change existing retention practices thought to be effective. Face-to-face and electronic follow-up technologies were identified as retention strategies for further research. Conclusions We developed best practice guidance for the use of retention strategies in RCTs and identified potential barriers to the use of effective strategies. The extent of agreement on best practice is limited by the variability in the currently available evidence. This guidance will need updating as new retention strategies are developed and evaluated.

How should we approach trial design when we can get some, but not all, of the way to the numbers required for a randomised phase III trial? We present an ordered framework for designing randomised trials to address the problem when the ideal sample size is considered larger than the number of participants that can be recruited in a reasonable time frame. Staying with the frequentist approach that is well accepted and understood in large trials, we propose a framework that includes small alterations to the design parameters. These aim to increase the numbers achievable and also potentially reduce the sample size target. The first step should always be to attempt to extend collaborations, consider broadening eligibility criteria and increase the accrual time or follow-up time. The second set of ordered considerations are the choice of research arm, outcome measures, power and target effect. If the revised design is still not feasible, in the third step we propose moving from two- to one-sided significance tests, changing the type I error rate, using covariate information at the design stage, re-randomising patients and borrowing external information. We discuss the benefits of some of these possible changes and warn against others. We illustrate, with a worked example based on the Euramos-1 trial, the application of this framework in designing a trial that is feasible, while still providing a good evidence base to evaluate a research treatment. This framework would allow appropriate evaluation of treatments when large-scale phase III trials are not possible, but where the need for high-quality randomised data is as pressing as it is for common diseases.

Background Free school breakfast programmes (SBPs) exist in a number of high-income countries, but their effects on educational outcomes have rarely been evaluated in randomised controlled trials. Methods A 1-year stepped-wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial was undertaken in 14 New Zealand schools in low socioeconomic resource areas. Participants were 424 children, mean age 9±2 years, 53% female. The intervention was a free daily SBP. The primary outcome was children's school attendance. Secondary outcomes were academic achievement, self-reported grades, sense of belonging at school, behaviour, short-term hunger, breakfast habits and food security. Results There was no statistically significant effect of the breakfast programme on children's school attendance. The odds of children achieving an attendance rate

Missing outcome data and incomplete uptake of randomised interventions are common problems, which complicate the analysis and interpretation of randomised controlled trials, and are rarely addressed well in practice. To promote the implementation of recent methodological developments, we describe sequences of randomisation-based analyses that can be used to explore both issues. We illustrate these in an Internet-based trial evaluating the use of a new interactive website for those seeking help to reduce their alcohol consumption, in which the primary outcome was available for less than half of the participants and uptake of the intervention was limited. For missing outcome data, we first employ data on intermediate outcomes and intervention use to make a missing at random assumption more plausible, with analyses based on general estimating equations, mixed models and multiple imputation. We then use data on the ease of obtaining outcome data and sensitivity analyses to explore departures from the missing at random assumption. For incomplete uptake of randomised interventions, we estimate structural mean models by using instrumental variable methods. In the alcohol trial, there is no evidence of benefit unless rather extreme assumptions are made about the missing data nor an important benefit in more extensive users of the intervention. These findings considerably aid the interpretation of the trial's results. More generally, the analyses proposed are applicable to many trials with missing outcome data or incomplete intervention uptake. To facilitate use by others, Stata code is provided for all methods. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The lack of effective drugs in stage IV melanoma has impacted the effectiveness of adjuvant therapies in stage II/III disease. To date, chemotherapy, immunostimulants and vaccines have been used with minimal success. Interferon (IFN) has shown an effect on relapse-free survival (RFS) in several clinical trials; however, without a clinically significant effect on overall survival (OS). A recently conducted meta-analysis demonstrated prolongation of disease-free survival (DFS) in 7% and OS benefit in 3% of IFN-treated patients when compared with observation-only patients. There were no clear differences for the dose and duration of treatment observed. Observation is still an appropriate control arm in adjuvant clinical trials. Regional differences exist in Europe in the adjuvant use of IFN. In Northwest Europe, IFN is infrequently prescribed. In Central and Mediterranean Europe, dermatologists commonly prescribe low-dose IFN therapy for AJCC stage II and III disease. High-dose IFN regimens are not commonly used. The population of patients that may benefit from IFN needs to be further characterised, potentially by finding biomarkers that can predict response. Such studies are ongoing.

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) can be at risk of bias. Using data from a RCT we considered the impact of post-randomisation bias. We compared the trial primary outcome, which was administered blindly, with the secondary outcome which was not administered blindly. 522 children from 44 schools were randomised to receive a one-to-one maths tuition programme that was assessed using two outcome measures. The primary outcome measure was assessed blindly whilst the secondary outcome was delivered by the classroom teacher and therefore this was un-blinded. The effect sizes for primary and secondary outcomes were substantially different (0.33 and 1.11 respectively). Test questions that were similar between the two tests this did not explain the difference. There was greater heterogeneity between schools for the primary outcome, compared with the secondary outcome. We conclude that, in this trial, the difference between the primary and secondary outcomes was likely to have been due to lack of blinding of testers.

This paper revisits the use of effect sizes in the analysis of experimental and similar results, and reminds readers of the relative advantages of the mean absolute deviation as a measure of variation, as opposed to the more complex standard deviation. The mean absolute deviation is is easier to use and understand, and more tolerant of extreme values. The paper then proposes the use of an easy to comprehend effect size based on the mean difference between treatment groups, divided by the mean absolute deviation of all scores. Using a simulation based on 1,656 randomised controlled trials each with 100 cases, and a before and after design, the paper shows that the substantive findings from any such trial would be the same whether raw-score differences, a traditional effect size like Cohen’s d, or the mean absolute deviation effect size is used. The same would be true for any comparison, whether for a trial or a simpler cross-sectional design. It seems that there is a clear choice over which effect size to use. The main advantage in using raw scores as an outcome measure is that they are easy to comprehend. However, they might be misleading and so perhaps require more judgement to interpret than traditional ‘effect’ sizes. Among the advantages of using the mean absolute deviation effect size are its relative simplicity, everyday meaning, and the lack of distortion of extreme scores caused by the squaring involved in computing the standard deviation. Given that working with absolute values is no longer the barrier to computation that it apparently was before the advent of digital calculators, there is a clear place for the mean absolute deviation effect size (termed ‘A’).

The aim of the study was to demonstrate the superiority of docetaxel and epirubicin vs docetaxel alone as first-line therapy in metastatic breast cancer patients pretreated with adjuvant or neoadjuvant epirubicin. We compared single agent docetaxel 100 mg m−2 (D) with the combination of docetaxel 80 mg m−2 and epirubicin 75 mg m−2 (ED). The response rate (72 vs 79%), the progression-free survival (median 9 vs 11 months) and the overall survival (median 18 vs 21 months) were not significantly different between the ED (n=26) and D arms (n=25), respectively. Leucopaenia, nausea and stomatitis were significantly worse with ED. In conclusion, epirubicin should not be administered in combination with taxanes in metastatic breast cancer patients relapsed after an anthracycline-based adjuvant or neoadjuvant therapy.

In 1901, Wilhelm Conrad Röntgen won the Nobel prize in Physics for his discovery of the Röntgen rays or, as he himself called them, X-rays. In 1966, Dr Charles Brenton Higgins won the Nobel Prize in Medicine for his breakthroughs concerning hormonal treatment of prostatic cancer. After 31 years, in 1997, the first prospective randomised trials of the combination of hormonal therapy and radiation therapy were published, showing increased survival when compared to radiation therapy alone for patients with prostate cancer. Since 1997, many investigators have published trials combining hormonal and radiation therapy for prostate cancer. This minireview will address the largest and most influential of these trials, and attempt to guide physicians in selecting the appropriate patients for this combined approach.

Background An increased prevalence of risky alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm has been reported for members of sporting groups and at sporting venues compared with non-sporting populations. While sports clubs and venues represent opportune settings to implement strategies to reduce such risks, no controlled trials have been reported. The purpose of the study was to examine the effectiveness of an alcohol management intervention in reducing risky alcohol consumption and the risk of alcohol-related harm among community football club members. Method A cluster randomised controlled trial of an alcohol management intervention was undertaken with non-elite, community football clubs and their members in New South Wales, Australia. Risky alcohol consumption (5+ drinks) at the club and risk of alcohol-related harm using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) were measured at baseline and postintervention. Results Eighty-eight clubs participated in the trial (n=43, Intervention; n=45, Control) and separate cross-sectional samples of club members completed the baseline (N=1411) and postintervention (N=1143) surveys. Postintervention, a significantly lower proportion of intervention club members reported: risky alcohol consumption at the club (Intervention: 19%; Control: 24%; OR: 0.63 (95% CI 0.40 to 1.00); p=0.05); risk of alcohol-related harm (Intervention: 38%; Control: 45%; OR: 0.58 (95% CI 0.38 to 0.87); p

Background Schizophrenia is a common serious mental health condition which has significant morbidity and financial consequences. The mainstay of treatment has been antipsychotic medication but one third of people will have a ‘treatment resistant’ and most disabling and costly illness. The aim of this survey was to produce a broad overview of available randomised evidence for interventions for people whose schizophrenic illness has been designated ‘treatment resistant’. Method We searched the Cochrane Schizophrenia Group’s comprehensive Trials Register, selected all relevant randomised trials and, taking care not to double count, extracted the number of people randomised within each study. Finally we sought relevant reviews on the Cochrane Library and investigated how data on this subgroup of people had been presented. Results We identified 542 relevant papers based on 268 trials (Average size 64.8 SD 61.6, range 7–526, median 56 IQR 47.3, mode 60). The most studied intervention is clozapine with 82 studies (total n = 6299) comparing it against other anti-psychotic medications. Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), electroconvulsive therapy (ECT), or transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) supplementing a standard care and risperidone supplementation of clozapine has also been extensively evaluated within trials. Many approaches, however, were clearly under researched. There were only four studies investigating combinations of non-clozapine antipsychotics. Only two psychological approaches (CBT and Family Rehabilitation Training) had more than two studies. Cochrane reviews rarely presented data specific to this important clinical sub-group. Conclusions This survey provides a broad taxonomy of how much evaluative research has been carried out investigating interventions for people with treatment resistant schizophrenia. Over 280 trials have been undertaken but, with a few exceptions, most treatment approaches - and some in common use - have only one or two relevant but small trials. Too infrequently the leading reviews fail to highlight the paucity of evidence in this area – as these reviews are maintained this shortcoming should be addressed. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12888-014-0253-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Objective To examine the long-term impact of early treatment initiation of interferon beta-1b (IFNB1b, Betaferon/Betaseron) in patients with a first event suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods In the original placebo-controlled phase of BENEFIT, patients were randomised to IFNB1b 250 μg or placebo subcutaneously every other day. After 2 years or diagnosis of clinically definite MS (CDMS), all patients were offered open-label IFNB1b treatment for a maximum duration of 5 years. Thereafter, patients were enrolled in an observational extension study for up to 8.7 years. Results Of the initial 468 patients, 284 (60.7%; IFNB1b: 178 (61.0% of the original arm), placebo: 106 (60.2% of original arm)) were enrolled in the extension study. 94.2% of patients were receiving IFNB1b. Patients originally randomised to IFNB1b had a reduced risk of developing CDMS by 32.2% over the 8-year observation period (HR 0.678; 95% CI 0.525 to 0.875; p=0.0030), a longer median time to CDMS by 1345 days (95% CI 389 to 2301), and a lower annualised relapse rate (0.196 (95% CI 0.176 to 0.218) versus 0.255 (95% CI 0.226 to 0.287), p=0.0012), with differences mainly emerging in the first year of the study. Cognitive outcomes remained higher in the early treated patients. EDSS remained low over time with a median of 1.5 in both arms. Conclusions These 8-year results provide further evidence supporting early initiation of treatment with IFNB1b in patients with a first event suggestive of MS.

Aim The REbif FLEXible dosing in early MS (REFLEX) study compared several brain MRI outcomes in patients presenting with clinically isolated syndromes suggestive of multiple sclerosis and treated with two dose-frequencies of subcutaneous interferon (IFN) β-1a or placebo. Methods Patients were randomised (1:1:1) to IFN β-1a, 44 µg subcutaneously three times a week or once a week, or placebo three times a week for up to 24 months. MRI scans were performed every 3 months, or every 6 months if the patient developed clinically definite multiple sclerosis. End points analysed included: number of combined unique active lesions per patient per scan; numbers and volumes of new T2, T1 hypointense and gadolinium-enhancing (Gd+) lesions per patient per scan; and brain volume. Results 517 patients were randomised (intent-to-treat population: subcutaneous IFN β-1a three times a week, n=171; subcutaneous IFN β-1a once a week, n=175; placebo, n=171). Combined unique active lesions were lower in patients treated with subcutaneous IFN β-1a versus placebo (mean (SD) lesions per patient per scan: three times a week 0.6 (1.15); once a week 1.23 (4.26); placebo 2.70 (5.23); reduction versus placebo: three times a week 81%; once a week 63%; p

The paper provides a first survey of the literature on external validity. The starting point for this are debates regarding the use of randomised evaluations to inform policy. Besides synthesising contributions to the programme evaluation literature we consider definitions of external validity from other subdisciplines within economics, such as experimental economics and the time-series forecasting literature, as well as the disciplines of philosophy and medicine. We suggest - following Cook and Campbell (1979) - that the fundamental challenge arises from interactive functional forms. This somewhat neglected point provides a framework in which to understand how and why extrapolation may fail. In particular it suggests that replication cannot resolve the external validity problem unless informed by some prior theoretical understanding of the causal relationship of interest. Finally, we argue that the assumptions required for simple external validity are conceptually equivalent to those required for obtaining unbiased estimates of treatment effects using non-experimental methods, undermining the idea that internal validity needs be rigorously assessed whereas external validity can be ascertained subjectively. Theory may play a role in aiding extrapolation, but the extent to which this will be possible in practice remains an open question.

Background Sensitivity analyses are an important tool for understanding the extent to which the results of randomised trials depend upon the assumptions of the analysis. There is currently no guidance governing the choice of sensitivity analyses. Discussion We provide a principled approach to choosing sensitivity analyses through the consideration of the following questions: 1) Does the proposed sensitivity analysis address the same question as the primary analysis? 2) Is it possible for the proposed sensitivity analysis to return a different result to the primary analysis? 3) If the results do differ, is there any uncertainty as to which will be believed? Answering all of these questions in the affirmative will help researchers to identify relevant sensitivity analyses. Treating analyses as sensitivity analyses when one or more of the answers are negative can be misleading and confuse the interpretation of studies. The value of these questions is illustrated with several examples. Summary By removing unreasonable analyses that might have been performed, these questions will lead to relevant sensitivity analyses, which help to assess the robustness of trial results.

Background Fatigue is a common and troubling symptom for people with multiple sclerosis (MS). Aim To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a six-session group-based programme for managing MS-fatigue (Fatigue: Applying Cognitive behavioural and Energy effectiveness Techniques to lifeStyle (FACETS)). Methods Three-centre parallel arm randomised controlled trial with economic evaluation. Patients with MS and significant fatigue were randomised to FACETS plus current local practice (FACETS) or current local practice alone (CLP), using concealed computer-generated randomisation. Participant blinding was not possible. Primary outcomes were fatigue severity (Fatigue Assessment Instrument), self-efficacy (Multiple Sclerosis-Fatigue Self-Efficacy) and disease-specific quality of life (Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29)) at 1 and 4 months postintervention (follow-up 1 and 2). Quality adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated (EuroQoL 5-Dimensions questionnaire and the Short-form 6-Dimensions questionnaire). Results Between May 2008 and November 2009, 164 patients were randomised; primary outcome data were available for 146 (89%). Statistically significant differences favour the intervention group on fatigue self-efficacy at follow-up 1 (mean difference (MD) 9, 95% CI (4 to 14), standardised effect size (SES) 0.54, p=0.001) and follow-up 2 (MD 6, 95% CI (0 to 12), SES 0.36, p=0.05) and fatigue severity at follow-up 2 (MD −0.36, 95% CI (−0.63 to −0.08), SES −0.35, p=0.01) but no differences for MSIS-29 or QALYs. No adverse events reported. Estimated cost per person for FACETS is £453; findings suggest an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £2157 per additional person with a clinically significant improvement in fatigue. Conclusions FACETS is effective in reducing fatigue severity and increasing fatigue self-efficacy. However, it is difficult to assess the additional cost in terms of cost-effectiveness (ie, cost per QALY) as improvements in fatigue are not reflected in the QALY outcomes, with no significant differences between FACETS and CLP. The strengths of this trial are its pragmatic nature and high external validity. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN76517470.

OBJECTIVE: To explore whether systematic reviewers selectively include trial effect estimates in meta-analyses when multiple are available, and what impact this may have on meta-analytic effects.DESIGN: Cross-sectional study.DATA SOURCES: We randomly selected systematic reviews of interventions from 2 clinical specialties published between January 2010 and 2012. The first presented meta-analysis of a continuous outcome in each review was selected (index meta-analysis), and all trial effect estimates that were eligible for inclusion in the meta-analysis (eg, from multiple scales or time points) were extracted from trial reports.ANALYSIS: We calculated a statistic (the Potential Bias Index (PBI)) to quantify and test for evidence of selective inclusion. The PBI ranges from 0 to 1; values above or below 0.5 are suggestive of selective inclusion of effect estimates more or less favourable to the intervention, respectively. The impact of any potential selective inclusion was investigated by comparing the index meta-analytic standardised mean difference (SMD) to the median of a randomly constructed distribution of meta-analytic SMDs (representing the meta-analytic SMD expected when there is no selective inclusion).RESULTS: 31 reviews (250 trials) were included. The estimated PBI was 0.57 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.63), suggesting that trial effect estimates that were more favourable to the intervention were included in meta-analyses slightly more often than expected under a process consistent with random selection; however, the 95% CI included the null hypothesis of no selective inclusion. Any potential selective inclusion did not have an important impact on the meta-analytic effects.CONCLUSION: There was no clear evidence that selective inclusion of trial effect estimates occurred in this sample of meta-analyses. Further research on selective inclusion in other clinical specialties is needed. To enable readers to assess the risk of selective inclusion bias, we recommend that systematic reviewers report the methods used to select effect estimates to include in meta-analyses.

Background Bias in industry-sponsored trials is common and the interpretation of the results can be particularly distorted in favour of the sponsor’s product. We investigated sponsors’ involvement in the conduct and reporting of industry-sponsored trials. Methods We included all industry-sponsored trials published in The Lancet in 2008 and 2009 and corresponding trial protocols provided by The Lancet. For each protocol and publication, we extracted information on trial conduct and reporting. Results We identified 169 publications of randomised trials and included 69 (41%) that were industry-sponsored, and 12 (7%) industry-funded but seemingly independently conducted as a subsample. Entry of data into the study database was done independently by academic authors without the involvement of the sponsor or a contract research organisation in one of the 69 trials. Two trials had independent data analysis and one independent reporting of results. In 11 of the trials, there was a discrepancy between the information in the protocols and papers concerning who analysed the data. In four of the 12 seemingly independent trials, the protocol described sponsors’ involvement in writing the report while the published paper explicitly stated that the sponsor was not involved. Conclusions The sponsors are usually involved in the analysis and reporting of results in industry-sponsored trials, but their exact role is not always clear from the published papers. Journals should require more transparent reporting of the sponsors’ role in crucial elements such as data processing, statistical analysis and writing of the manuscript and should consider requiring access to trial protocols, independent data analysis and submission of the raw data.

Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of a worksite vitality intervention on vigorous physical activity (VPA), fruit intake, aerobic capacity, mental health and need for recovery after work among older hospital workers (ie, 45 years and older). Methods The 6-month intervention was evaluated using a randomised controlled trial design. Workers who were randomised to the intervention group (n=367; control: n=363) received the Vital@Work intervention containing (1) a Vitality Exercise Program (VEP) combined with (2) three visits to Personal Vitality Coach. The VEP consisted of a weekly yoga session, a weekly workout session and weekly unsupervised aerobic exercising. Free fruit was provided at the VEP. Data on the outcome measures were collected (ie, year 2009–2010) at baseline (n=730) and 6 months of follow-up after baseline (n=575) using questionnaires, accelerometers and 2 km walk tests. Effects were analysed according to the intention-to-treat principle with complete cases (n=575) and imputed data (n=730) using linear regression analyses. Additional analyses were performed for high yoga and workout compliance (ie, >mean number of sessions). Results Effects were found for sports activities (β=40.4 min/week, 95% CI 13.0 to 67.7) and fruit intake (β=2.7 pieces/week, 95% CI 0.07 to 4.7) and were stronger for workers with high compliance to yoga (sport: β=49.6 min/week, 95% CI 13.9 to 85.2; fruit: β=3.8 pieces/week, 95% CI 1.1 to 6.4) and workout sessions (sport: β=72.9 min/week, 95% CI 36.1 to 109.8; fruit: β=4.0 pieces/week, 95% CI 1.1 to 6.4). The intervention group lowered their need for recovery, when compared to controls (β=−3.5, 95% CI −6.4 to −0.54), with stronger effects for high workout compliance (β=−5.3, 95% CI −9.3 to −1.3). No effects were found on VPA, aerobic capacity or mental health. Conclusions Implementation of worksite yoga and workout facilities and minimal fruit interventions should be considered by employers to promote transitions into healthier lifestyles and thereby health.

BackgroundOlder people are at risk for health decline and loss of independence. Lifestyle interventions offer potential for reducing such negative outcomes. The aim of this study was to determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a preventive lifestyle-based occupational therapy intervention, administered in a variety of community-based sites, in improving mental and physical well-being and cognitive functioning in ethnically diverse older people.MethodsA randomised controlled trial was conducted comparing an occupational therapy intervention and a no-treatment control condition over a 6-month experimental phase. Participants included 460 men and women aged 60-95 years (mean age 74.9 ± 7.7 years; 53%

In 1901, Wilhelm Conrad Röntgen won the Nobel prize in Physics for his discovery of the Röntgen rays or, as he himself called them, X-rays. In 1966, Dr Charles Brenton Higgins won the Nobel Prize in Medicine for his breakthroughs concerning hormonal treatment of prostatic cancer. After 31 years, in 1997, the first prospective randomised trials of the combination of hormonal therapy and radiation therapy were published, showing increased survival when compared to radiation therapy alone for patients with prostate cancer. Since 1997, many investigators have published trials combining hormonal and radiation therapy for prostate cancer. This minireview will address the largest and most influential of these trials, and attempt to guide physicians in selecting the appropriate patients for this combined approach.

Objective: To quantify the effect of strategies to improve retention in randomised trials.\ud \ud Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis.\ud \ud Data sources Sources searched: MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, DARE, CENTRAL, CINAHL, C2-SPECTR, ERIC, PreMEDLINE, Cochrane Methodology Register, Current Controlled Trials metaRegister, WHO trials platform, Society for Clinical Trials (SCT) conference proceedings and a survey of all UK clinical trial research units.\ud \ud Review: methods Included trials were randomised evaluations of strategies to improve retention embedded within host randomised trials. The primary outcome was retention of trial participants. Data from trials were pooled using the fixed-effect model. Subgroup analyses were used to explore the heterogeneity and to determine whether there were any differences in effect by the type of strategy.\ud \ud Results: 38 retention trials were identified. Six broad types of strategies were evaluated. Strategies that increased postal questionnaire responses were: adding, that is, giving a monetary incentive (RR 1.18; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.28) and higher valued incentives (RR 1.12; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.22). Offering a monetary incentive, that is, an incentive given on receipt of a completed questionnaire, also increased electronic questionnaire response (RR 1.25; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.38). The evidence for shorter questionnaires (RR 1.04; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.08) and questionnaires relevant to the disease/condition (RR 1.07; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.14) is less clear. On the basis of the results of single trials, the following strategies appeared effective at increasing questionnaire response: recorded delivery of questionnaires (RR 2.08; 95% CI 1.11 to 3.87); a ‘package’ of postal communication strategies (RR 1.43; 95% CI 1.22 to 1.67) and an open trial design (RR 1.37; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.63). There is no good evidence that the following strategies impact on trial response/retention: adding a non-monetary incentive (RR=1.00; 95% CI 0.98 to 1.02); offering a non-monetary incentive (RR=0.99; 95% CI 0.95 to 1.03); ‘enhanced’ letters (RR=1.01; 95% CI 0.97 to 1.05); monetary incentives compared with offering prize draw entry (RR=1.04; 95% CI 0.91 to 1.19); priority postal delivery (RR=1.02; 95% CI 0.95 to 1.09); behavioural motivational strategies (RR=1.08; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.24); additional reminders to participants (RR=1.03; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.06) and questionnaire question order (RR=1.00, 0.97 to 1.02). Also based on single trials, these strategies do not appear effective: a telephone survey compared with a monetary incentive plus questionnaire (RR=1.08; 95% CI 0.94 to 1.24); offering a charity donation (RR=1.02, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.32); sending sites reminders (RR=0.96; 95% CI 0.83 to 1.11); sending questionnaires early (RR=1.10; 95% CI 0.96 to 1.26); longer and clearer questionnaires (RR=1.01, 0.95 to 1.07) and participant case management by trial assistants (RR=1.00; 95% CI 0.97 to 1.04).\ud \ud Conclusions: Most of the trials evaluated questionnaire response rather than ways to improve participants return to site for follow-up. Monetary incentives and offers of monetary incentives increase postal and electronic questionnaire response. Some strategies need further evaluation. Application of these results would depend on trial context and follow-up procedures.

Background: Failure to include socio-economically deprived or ethnic minority groups in physical activity (PA) trials may limit representativeness and could lead to implementation of interventions that then increase health inequalities. Randomised intervention trials often have low recruitment rates and rarely assess recruitment bias. A previous trial by the same team using similar methods recruited 30% of the eligible population but was in an affluent setting with few non-white residents and was limited to those over 60 years of age. Methods: PACE-UP is a large, effective, population-based walking trial in inactive 45-75 year-olds that recruited through seven London general practices. Anonymised practice demographic data were available for all those invited, enabling investigation of inequalities in trial recruitment. Non-participants were invited to complete a questionnaire. Results: From 10,927 postal invitations, 1150 (10.5%) completed baseline assessment. Participation rate ratios (95% CI), adjusted for age and gender as appropriate, were lower in men 0.59 (0.52, 0.67) than women, in those under 55 compared with those ≥65, 0.60 (0.51, 0.71), in the most deprived quintile compared with the least deprived 0.52 (0.39, 0.70) and in Asian individuals compared with whites 0.62 (0.50, 0.76). Black individuals were equally likely to participate as white individuals. Participation was also associated with having a co-morbidity or some degree of health limitation. The most common reasons for non-participation were considering themselves as being too active or lack of time. Conclusions: Conducting the trial in this diverse setting reduced overall response, with lower response in socio-economically deprived and Asian sub-groups. Trials with greater reach are likely to be more expensive in terms of recruitment and gains in generalizability need to be balanced with greater costs. Differential uptake of successful trial interventions may increase inequalities in PA levels and should be monitored. Trial registration: ISRCTN.com ISRCTN98538934. Registered 2nd March 2012.