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International audience; The present study assessed the visible and short wave infrared (VNIR-SWIR) laboratory spectroscopy coupled random forest regression (RF) technique for predicting soil properties in the southern Karnataka Plateau, India. The spectral data acquired for about 228 profile samples were used to predict key soil properties. The RF model fits well for the spectral prediction of clay (R-2 = 0.65), sand (R-2 = 0.60), cation exchange capacity (R-2 = 0.74), field capacity (R-2 = 0.65) and permanent wilting point (R-2 = 0.72). Wherein soil organic carbon was poorly predicted with an R-2 of 0.22 and RPD of 1.2 due to its lower content and narrow range (0.8 to 20 g kg(-1)). The spectral assessment by PCA showed that the first (50%) and third (34%) components had high spectral variation and significantly correlated with soil properties such as pH, CEC, clay, FC, and PWP related to wavelengths indicating clay minerals and iron oxides. However, the second component had less spectral variation (13%) that is related to wavelengths indicating various organic components and correlated well with SOC. Thus, the VNIR-SWIR spectroscopy could be a suitable supplementary method for rapidly predicting soil properties related to clay minerals and iron oxides.

— The purpose of this paper is to predict the price of houses. House Price Index (HPI) is commonly used to estimate the changes in housing price. It requires additional information because house price is significantly connected with other features like area, location, and population. A comparative study of some Machine Learning algorithm. I tested a regression models such Random Forest Regression, Linear Regression, Lasso Regression and Decision Tree Algorithm are done in this paper. Linear Regression and Decision Tree is often used for classification and predictive analytics. Random Forest Regression is a model used for both classification and regression. The accuracy of the three algorithms in predicting house prices are calculated and the highest accuracy obtained in Linear Regression and Lasso Regression was around 62 % for the given dataset. The accuracy of Random Forest Regression model is 55 %. The accuracy of Decision Tree model is 38 %. Thus, by developing this model, it can predict the price of house in bases of given dataset and person get an idea about the house price.

— This research aims to investigate the use of predictive analysis in accurate fare prediction, which has become an important aspect for businesses such as Ola and Uber. Machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques are being employed to improve fare prediction accuracy. To achieve the most precise results, the study will compare various algorithms, including Random forest regression and classification, which are widely used for prediction modelling. Unlike in the past where fare estimation was solely based on distance, the current fare is influenced by multiple variables such as time of day, location, traffic conditions, duration of the ride, and base fare. This study will therefore explore the use of these variables to improve the accuracy of fare prediction.

A novel machine learning approach to circumvent the tedious work associated with solving PBPK models

Firefighters face numerous challenges when entering burning structures to rescue trapped victims, assess the conditions of a residential structure, and extinguish the fire as quickly as possible. These challenges include extreme temperatures, smoke, toxic gases, explosions, and falling objects, which can hinder their efficiency and pose risks to their safety. Accurate information and data about the burning site can help firefighters make informed decisions about their duties and determine when it is safe to enter and evacuate, reducing the likelihood of casualties. This research presents unsupervised deep learning (DL) to classify the danger levels at a burning site and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) prediction model to forecast temperature changes using the extrapolation of a random forest regressor. The DL classifier algorithms provide the chief firefighter with an awareness of the danger levels in the burning compartment. The prediction models forecast the rise in temperature from a height ranging from 0.6 m to 2.6 m and the changes in temperature over time at an altitude of 2.6 m. Predicting the temperature at this altitude is critical as the temperature increases faster with height, and elevated temperatures can weaken the building’s structural material. We also investigated a new classification method using an unsupervised DL autoencoder artificial neural network (AE-ANN). The prediction data analytical approach included using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with random forest regression implementation. The proposed AE-ANN model, with an accuracy score of 0.869, did not perform as well compared to previous work, with an accuracy of 0.989, at achieving high accuracy scores for the classification task using the same dataset. However, the random forest regressor and our ARIMA models are analyzed and evaluated in this work, while other research has not utilized this dataset, even though it is open-sourced. However, the ARIMA model demonstrated remarkable predictions of the trends of temperature changes in a burning site. The proposed research aims to classify fire sites into dangerous levels and predict temperature progression using deep learning and predictive modeling techniques. This research’s main contribution is using a random forest regressor and autoregressive integrated moving average models to predict temperature trends in burning sites. This research demonstrates the potential of using deep learning and predictive modeling to enhance firefighter safety and decision-making processes.

Soil organic matter (SOM) is a critical indicator of soil nutrient levels, and the precise mapping of its spatial distribution through remote sensing is essential for soil regulation, precise fertilization, and scientific management and protection. This information can offer decision support to agricultural management departments and various agricultural producers. In this paper, two new soil indices, NLIrededge2 and GDVIrededge2, were proposed based on the sensitive spectral response characteristics of SOM in Northeast China. Nine parameters suitable for SOM mapping and modeling were determined using the competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (CARS) method, combined with spectrum reflectance, mathematical transformations of reflectance, vegetation indices, and so on. Then, utilizing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based multispectral images with centimeter-level resolution, a random forest machine learning algorithm was used to construct the inversion model of SOM and mapping SOM in the study area. The results showed that the random forest algorithm performed best for estimating SOM (R2 = 0.91, RMSE = 0.95, MBE = 0.49, and RPIQ = 3.25) when compared with other machine learning algorithms such as support vector regression (SVR), elastic net, Bayesian ridge, and linear regression. The findings indicated a negative correlation between SOM content and altitude. The study concluded that the SOM modeling and mapping results could meet the needs of farmers to obtain basic information and provide a reference for UAVs to monitor SOM.

In order to achieve a virtual certification process and robust designs for turbomachinery, the uncertainty bounds for Computational Fluid Dynamics have to be known. The formulation of turbulence closure models implies a major source of the overall uncertainty of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes simulations. We discuss the common practice of applying a physics constrained eigenspace perturbation of the Reynolds stress tensor in order to account for the model form uncertainty of turbulence models. Since the basic methodology often leads to overly generous uncertainty estimates, we extend a recent approach of adding a machine learning strategy. The application of a data-driven method is motivated by striving for the detection of flow regions, which are prone to suffer from a lack of turbulence model prediction accuracy. In this way any user input related to choosing the degree of uncertainty is supposed to become obsolete. This work especially investigates an approach, which tries to determine an a priori estimation of prediction confidence, when there is no accurate data available to judge the prediction. The flow around the NACA 4412 airfoil at near-stall conditions demonstrates the successful application of the data-driven eigenspace perturbation framework. Furthermore, we especially highlight the objectives and limitations of the underlying methodology.

Dam behavior prediction is a classic problem in the monitoring of dam structure. To obtain accurate results, different researchers have established various models. However, the models of predecessors rarely studied the nonlinear characteristics of dam displacement data and the abnormal values of monitoring data. It means that abnormal values will contaminate data set, and consequently reduce the accuracy of model predictions. In this article, an improved Random Forest (RF) model was proposed for analyzing dam displacement prediction and was coupled with a sliding time window strategy. The proposed model is developed by the following steps. First, for the purpose of alleviating the time-lag effect of impact factor phenomenon, a sliding time window strategy was introduced into the RF model to improve the time sensitivity. Second, aiming to determine the hyperparameters, Grid Search (GS) was introduced into RF model to improve the global optimization ability. This article takes masonry arch dam in China as an example, and adopts the horizontal displacement recorded by Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) as the research object. The accuracy and validity of the proposed model are verified and evaluated based on the evaluation criteria. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model could capture the long-term characteristics and provide better prediction based on short-term monitoring data. It also has strong robustness on the abnormal data series, has simpler structures and less parameters, and requires less time for model training, so it can be a potential tool for actual monitoring tasks.

Harvest time is an important factor affecting grain yield and postharvest quality. The estimation of crop maturity greatly supports farmers in the optimization of the harvest time. This study proposed a method for predicting paddy rice maturity (J816 and 5Y4 varieties) using color features and the random forest (RF) regression algorithm. Paddy panicle images were obtained using a flatbed scanner during the maturation period. To estimate paddy rice maturity, 22 color features representing the greenness of crop leaves were extracted from the paddy panicle images. Stepwise regression was used to select superior features as inputs to the RF regression model. The coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) values of the model were 0.93 and 1.18% for J816 and 0.94 and 1.60% for 5Y4, respectively. The results indicate that the proposed method in this study is a promising technique for the estimation of paddy rice maturity.

As a key link between top-down regulators and bottom-up factors, zooplankton responds sensitively to environmental variations and provides information on the ecological state of freshwater systems. Although the response of zooplankton to anthropogenic pressures and fluctuating natural conditions, such as nutrient loading and climate change, has been extensively examined, findings have varied markedly. The mechanistic basis for the correlation between environmental variability and the zooplankton community is still debated, particularly for subtropical eutrophic lakes. We used two methods to analyze physicochemical and selected biological variables derived from long-term monitoring of Lake Taihu, a subtropical shallow lake in China. We first applied random forest regression to examine how changes in zooplankton were related to a set of environmental variables on interannual time scales. Then we used the results to guide the construction of a conceptual model for piecewise structural equation modeling (pSEM) to quantify more precisely the zooplankton–environment relationship. Zooplanktivorous fish and nutrient concentrations were the most important predictors of long-term trends in zooplankton in RF regression. Intensification of planktivorous fish predation led to a lower zooplankton biomass and smaller individuals through the removal of larger crustaceans. Moreover, suppression of zooplankton can in part be explained by increases in inedible algae, triggered by a combination of reduced nutrient concentrations and weakened grazer control. These results were also confirmed in the pSEM, which further indicated that top-down regulators might be more important than bottom-up factors for the zooplankton community in Lake Taihu. Our results suggest that stocking of filter-feeding fish in the lake did not meet the expectation that they would control algae, but that the use of biomanipulation measures considering both water quality and fishery management seems promising. This study offers insights into how indicator metrics of zooplankton can improve our understanding of the associations between plankton communities and ecosystem alterations.

Phylogenetic analyses under the Maximum Likelihood model are time and resource intensive. To adequately capture the vastness of tree space, one needs to infer multiple independent trees. On some datasets, multiple tree inferences converge to similar tree topologies, on others to multiple, topologically highly distinct yet statistically indistinguishable topologies. At present, no method exists to quantify and predict this behavior. We introduce a method to quantify the degree of difficulty for analyzing a dataset and present Pythia, a Random Forest Regressor that accurately predicts this difficulty. Pythia predicts the degree of difficulty of analyzing a datasetpriorto initiating Maximum Likelihood based tree inferences. Pythia can be used to increase user awareness with respect to the amount of signal and uncertainty to be expected in phylogenetic analyses, and hence inform an appropriate (post-)analysis setup. Further, it can be used to select appropriate search algorithms for easy-, intermediate-, and hard-to-analyze datasets.

Rice is the primary staple food source for Indonesian people, with consumption increasing so that rice production needs to be increased. Rice drought is one of the problems that can hamper rice production. This research aims to determine the best extraction feature between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the normalized difference water index (NDWI) in describing rice fields’ dryness. Moreover, using the random forest regression algorithm. This research compares NDVI with NDWI using data originating from Sentinel-2A and retrieved via the google earth engine. Regression algorithms are used in research to predict drought in paddy fields. This research shows that NDVI is better than NDWI in predicting drought using random forest regression algorithms and logistic regression algorithms. The random forest regression algorithm based on the results obtained shows that the average root mean square error (RMSE) on NDVI is 0.018, and NDWI is 0.012. Based on the logistic regression algorithm results, it was found that the average value of RMSE on NDVI was 0.346, and NDWI was 0.336. Based on the results of the RMSE, it shows that the forecasting ability of the random forest regression algorithm is better than the logistic regression.

P. 441-451 Aim To evaluate the transferability between fire recurrence scenarios of post‐fire vegetation cover models calibrated with satellite imagery data at different spatial resolutions within two Mediterranean pine forest sites affected by large wildfires in 2012. Location The northwest and east of the Iberian Peninsula. Methods In each study site, we defined three fire recurrence scenarios for a reference period of 35 years. We used image texture derived from the surface reflectance channels of WorldView‐2 and Sentinel‐2 (at a spatial resolution of 2 m × 2 m and 20 m × 20 m, respectively) as predictors of post‐fire vegetation cover in Random Forest regression analysies. Percentage vegetation cover was sampled in two sets of field plots with a size roughly equivalent to the spatial resolution of the imagery. The plots were distributed following a stratified design according to fire recurrence scenarios. Model transferability was assessed within each study site by applying the vegetation cover model developed for a given fire recurrence scenario to predict vegetation cover in other scenarios, iteratively. Results For both wildfires, the highest model transferability between fire recurrence scenarios was achieved for those holding the most similar vegetation community composition regarding the balance of species abundance according to their plant‐regenerative traits (root mean square error [RMSE] around or lower than 15%). Model transferability performance was highly improved by fine‐grained remote‐sensing data. Conclusions Fire recurrence is a major driver of community structure and composition so the framework proposed in this study would allow land managers to reduce efforts in the context of post‐fire decision‐making to assess vegetation recovery within large burned landscapes with fire regime variability. SI

—Gold is often used by investors as a barrier against inflation or adverse economic times. As a result, it is critical for investors to be able to accurately estimate gold prices. This article is based on a study of gold price prediction by relationship between gold price and selected factors influencing it , namely date, stock value, current gold price ,united state oil price, current silver price, currency medium(EUR/USD) using Colab by random forest regression algorithm. Comparing and Analyze Rsquarederror graph and mean_absolute_error, and with linear regression algorithm. Monthly price data for the period January 2008 to May 2018 was used for the study. Two machine learning algorithms random forest regression and linear regression were used in analyzing these data. Random forest regression, on the other hand, has been found to have greater overall prediction accuracy.

Monitoring grape nutrient status, from flowering to veraison, is important for viticulturists when implementing vineyard management strategies, in order to produce quality wines. However, traditional methods for measuring nutrient elements incur high labour costs. The aim of this study is to explore the potential of predicting grapevine leaf blade nutrient concentration based on hyperspectral data. Leaf blades were collected at two Pinot Noir commercial vineyards at Martinborough, New Zealand. The leaf blade spectral data were obtained with a handheld spectroradiometer, to evaluate surface reflectance and derivative spectra in the spectrum range between 400 and 2400 nm. Afterwards, leaf blades nutrient concentrations (N, P, K, Ca, and Mg) were measured, and their relationships with the hyperspectral data were modelled by machine learning models; partial least squares regression (PLSR), random forest regression (RFR), and support vector regression (SVR) were used. Pearson correlation and recursive feature elimination, based on cross-validation, were used as feature selection methods for RFR and SVR, to improve the model’s performance. The variable importance score of PLSR, and permutation variable importance of RFR and SVR, were used to determine the most sensitive wavelengths, or spectral regions related to each biochemical variable. The results showed that the best predictive performance for leaf blade N concentration was based on PLSR to raw reflectance data (R2 = 0.66; RMSE = 0.15%). The combination of support vector regression with the Pearson correlation selected method and second derivative reflectance provided a high accuracy for K and Ca modelling (R2 = 0.7; RMSE = 0.06%; R2 = 0.62; RMSE = 0.11%, respectively). However, the modelling performance for P and Mg, by different feature groups and variable selection methods, was poor (R2 = 0.15; RMSE = 0.02%; R2 = 0.43; RMSE = 0.43%, respectively). Thus, a larger dataset is needed for improving the prediction of P and Mg. The results indicated that for Pinot Noir leaf blades, raw reflectance data had potential for the prediction of N concentration, while the second-derivative spectra were more suitable to predict K and Ca. This study led to the provision of rapid and non-destructive measurements of grapevine leaf nutrient status.

Electrohydrodynamic jet (E-jet) printing has broad application prospects in the preparation of flexible electronics and optical devices. Ejection cycle time and droplet size are two key factors affecting E-jet-printing quality, but due to the complex process of E-jet printing, it remains a challenge to establish accurate relationships among ejection cycle time and droplet diameter and printing parameters. This paper develops a model based on random forest regression (RFR) for E-jet-printing prediction. Trained with 72 groups of experimental data obtained under four printing parameters (voltage, nozzle-to-substrate distance, liquid viscosity, and liquid conductivity), the RFR model achieved a MAPE (mean absolute percent error) of 4.35% and an RMSE (root mean square error) of 0.04 ms for eject cycle prediction, as well as a MAPE of 2.89% and an RMSE of 0.96 μm for droplet diameter prediction. With limited training data, the RFR model achieved the best prediction accuracy among several machine-learning models (RFR, CART, SVR, and ANN). The proposed prediction model provides an efficient and effective way to simultaneously predict the ejection cycle time and droplet diameter, advancing E-jet printing toward the goal of accurate, drop-on-demand printing.

The research purpose of this paper is to obtain an algorithm model with high prediction accuracy for the price of Bitcoin on the next day through random forest regression and LSTM, and to explain which variables have influence on the price of Bitcoin. There is much prior literature on Bitcoin price prediction research, and the research methods mainly revolve around the ARMA model of time series and the LSTM algorithm of deep learning. Although it cannot be proved by the Diebold–Mariano test that the prediction accuracy of random forest regression is significantly better than that of LSTM, the prediction errors RMSE and MAPE of random forest regression are better than those of LSTM. The changes in the variables that determine the price of Bitcoin in each period are also obtained through random forest regression. From 2015 to 2018, three US stock market indexes, NASDAQ, DJI, and S&P500 and oil price, and ETH price have impact on Bitcoin prices. Since 2018, the important variables have become ETH price and Japanese stock market index JP225. The relationship between accuracy and the number of periods of explanatory variables brought into the model shows that for predicting the price of Bitcoin for the next day, the model with only one lag of the explanatory variables has the best prediction accuracy.

Land surface temperatures (LST) are vital parameters in land surface–atmosphere interactions. Constrained by technology and atmospheric interferences, LST retrievals from various satellite sensors usually return missing data, thus negatively impacting analyses. Reconstructing missing data is important for acquiring gap-free datasets. However, the current reconstruction methods are limited for maintaining spatial details and high accuracies. We developed a new gap-free algorithm termed the spatial feature-considered random forest regression (SFRFR) model; it builds stable nonlinear relationships to connect the LST with related parameters, including terrain elements, land coverage types, spectral indexes, surface reflectance data, and the spatial feature of the LST, to reconstruct the missing LST data. The SFRFR model reconstructed gap-free LST data retrieved from the Landsat 8 satellite on 27 July 2017 in Wuhan. The results show that the SFRFR model exhibits the best performance according to the various evaluation metrics among the SFRFR, random forest regression and spline interpolation, with a coefficient of determination (R2) reaching 0.96, root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.55, and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.55. Then, we reconstructed gap-free LST data gathered in Wuhan from 2016 to 2021 to analyze urban thermal environment changes and found that 2020 presented the coolest temperatures. The SFRFR model still displayed satisfactory results, with an average R2 of 0.91 and an MAE of 0.63. We further discuss and discover the factors affecting the visual performance of SFRFR and identify the research priority to circumvent these disadvantages. Overall, this study provides a simple, practical method for acquiring gap-free LST data to help us better understand the spatiotemporal LST variation process.

Microbial fuel cells have recently received considerable attention as a potential source of renewable energy. Due to its complex and hybrid nature, it has significant nonlinear features and substantial hysteresis behavior, making it hard to optimize and control its power generation directly. This study modeled power density and COD removal using random forest regression and gradient boost regression trees. System inputs are three key parameters that affect performance and commercialization. There is a range of 0.1–0.5 mg/cm2 of Pt, a degree of sulfonation of sulfonated polyether-etherketone varying from 20% to 80%, and a cathode aeration rate of 10–150 mL/min. Based on the model’s accuracies, gradient boost regression was selected for power density prediction and random forest for COD removal prediction. Particle swarm optimization was used as the optimization algorithm after selecting the best models to maximize COD removal and power density. It was found that DS was the most critical parameter for COD removal, and Pt was the most critical parameter for power density. There is a different optimal input value for each model. In order to maximize power density, DS (%) must be 67.7087, Pt (mg/cm2) must be 0.3943, and Aeration (mL/min) must be 117.7192. To maximize COD removal, the DS (%) must be 75.8816, the Pt (mg/cm2) must be 0.3322, and the Aeration (mL/min) must be 75.1933.

The early identification and prediction of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) play an important role in the disease prevention and control. However, suitable models are different in regions due to the differences in geography, social economy factors. We collected data associated with daily reported HFMD cases and weather factors of Zibo city in 2010~2019 and used the generalised additive model (GAM) to evaluate the effects of weather factors on HFMD cases. Then, GAM, support vectors regression (SVR) and random forest regression (RFR) models are used to compare predictive results. The annual average incidence was 129.72/100 000 from 2010 to 2019. Its distribution showed a unimodal trend, with incidence increasing from March, peaking from May to September. Our study revealed the nonlinear relationship between temperature, rainfall and relative humidity and HFMD cases and based on the predictive result, the performances of three models constructed ranked in descending order are: SVR > GAM> RFR, and SVR has the smallest prediction errors. These findings provide quantitative evidence for the prediction of HFMD for special high-risk regions and can help public health agencies implement prevention and control measures in advance.

One of the problems of optical remote sensing of crop above-ground biomass (AGB) is that vegetation indices (VIs) often saturate from the middle to late growth stages. This study focuses on combining VIs acquired by a consumer-grade multiple-spectral UAV and machine learning regression techniques to (i) determine the optimal time window for AGB estimation of winter wheat and to (ii) determine the optimal combination of multi-spectral VIs and regression algorithms. UAV-based multi-spectral data and manually measured AGB of winter wheat, under five nitrogen rates, were obtained from the jointing stage until 25 days after flowering in the growing season 2020/2021. Forty-four multi-spectral VIs were used in the linear regression (LR), partial least squares regression (PLSR), and random forest (RF) models in this study. Results of LR models showed that the heading stage was the most suitable stage for AGB prediction, with R2 values varying from 0.48 to 0.93. Three PLSR models based on different datasets performed differently in estimating AGB in the training dataset (R2 = 0.74~0.92, RMSE = 0.95~2.87 t/ha, MAE = 0.75~2.18 t/ha, and RPD = 2.00~3.67) and validation dataset (R2 = 0.50~0.75, RMSE = 1.56~2.57 t/ha, MAE = 1.44~2.05 t/ha, RPD = 1.45~1.89). Compared with PLSR models, the performance of the RF models was more stable in the prediction of AGB in the training dataset (R2 = 0.95~0.97, RMSE = 0.58~1.08 t/ha, MAE = 0.46~0.89 t/ha, and RPD = 3.95~6.35) and validation dataset (R2 = 0.83~0.93, RMSE = 0.93~2.34 t/ha, MAE = 0.72~2.01 t/ha, RPD = 1.36~3.79). Monitoring AGB prior to flowering was found to be more effective than post-flowering. Moreover, this study demonstrates that it is feasible to estimate AGB for multiple growth stages of winter wheat by combining the optimal VIs and PLSR and RF models, which overcomes the saturation problem of using individual VI-based linear regression models.

For obtaining a spatial map of the distribution of nitrogen nutrients from oil palm plantations, a quite complex Leaf Sampling Unit (LSU) is required. In addition, sample analysis in the laboratory is time consuming and quite expensive, especially for large plantation areas. Monitoring the nutrition of oil palm plants can be achieved using remote-sensing technology. The main obstacles of using passive sensors in multispectral imagery are cloud cover and shadow noise. This research used C-SAR Sentinel equipped with active sensors that can overcome cloud barriers. A model to estimate leaf nitrogen nutrient status was constructed using random forest regression (RFR) based on multiple polarization (VV-VH) and local incidence angle (LIA) data on Sentinel-1A imagery. A sample of 1116 LSU data from different islands (i.e., Sumatra, Java, and Kalimantan) was used to develop the proposed estimation model. The performance evaluation of the model obtained the averaged MAPE, correctness, and MSE of 9.68%, 90.32% and 11.03%, respectively. Spatial maps of the distribution of nitrogen values in certain oil palm areas can be produced and visualized on the web so that they can be accessed easily and quickly for various purposes of oil palm management such as fertilization planning, recommendations, and monitoring.

In recent years, CO2 flooding has emerged as an efficient method for improving oil recovery. It also has the advantage of storing CO2 underground. As one of the promising types of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR), CO2 water-alternating-gas injection (CO2-WAG) can suppress CO2 fingering and early breakthrough problems that occur during oil recovery by CO2 flooding. However, the evaluation of CO2-WAG is strongly dependent on the injection parameters, which in turn renders numerical simulations computationally expensive. So, in this work, machine learning is used to help predict how well CO2-WAG will work when different injection parameters are used. A total of 216 models were built by using CMG numerical simulation software to represent CO2-WAG development scenarios of various injection parameters where 70% of them were used as training sets and 30% as testing sets. A random forest regression algorithm was used to predict CO2-WAG performance in terms of oil production, CO2 storage amount, and CO2 storage efficiency. The CO2-WAG period, CO2 injection rate, and water–gas ratio were chosen as the three main characteristics of injection parameters. The prediction results showed that the predicted value of the test set was very close to the true value. The average absolute prediction deviations of cumulative oil production, CO2 storage amount, and CO2 storage efficiency were 1.10%, 3.04%, and 2.24%, respectively. Furthermore, it only takes about 10 s to predict the results of all 216 scenarios by using machine learning methods, while the CMG simulation method spends about 108 min. It demonstrated that the proposed machine-learning method can rapidly predict CO2-WAG performance with high accuracy and high computational efficiency under conditions of various injection parameters. This work gives more insights into the optimization of the injection parameters for CO2-EOR.

Crop yield is related to household food security and community resilience, especially in smallholder agricultural systems. As such, it is crucial to accurately estimate within-season yield in order to provide critical information for farm management and decision making. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to assess the most appropriate method, indices, and growth stage for predicting the groundnut yield in smallholder agricultural systems in northern Malawi. We have estimated the yield of groundnut in two smallholder farms using the observed yield and vegetation indices (VIs), which were derived from multitemporal PlanetScope satellite data. Simple linear, multiple linear (MLR), and random forest (RF) regressions were applied for the prediction. The leave-one-out cross-validation method was used to validate the models. The results showed that (i) of the modelling approaches, the RF model using the five most important variables (RF5) was the best approach for predicting the groundnut yield, with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.96 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.29 kg/ha, followed by the MLR model (R2 = 0.84, RMSE = 0.84 kg/ha); in addition, (ii) the best within-season stage to accurately predict groundnut yield is during the R5/beginning seed stage. The RF5 model was used to estimate the yield for four different farms. The estimated yields were compared with the total reported yields from the farms. The results revealed that the RF5 model generally accurately estimated the groundnut yields, with the margins of error ranging between 0.85% and 11%. The errors are within the post-harvest loss margins in Malawi. The results indicate that the observed yield and VIs, which were derived from open-source remote sensing data, can be applied to estimate yield in order to facilitate farming and food security planning.

In cases where a dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSC) is exposed to light, thermal energy accumulates inside the device, reducing the maximum power output. Utilizing this energy via the Seebeck effect can convert thermal energy into electrical current. Similar systems have been designed and built by other researchers, but associated tests were undertaken in laboratory environments using simulated sunlight and not outdoor conditions with methods that belong to conventional data analysis and simulation methods. In this study four machine learning techniques were analyzed: decision tree regression (DTR), random forest regression (RFR), K-nearest neighbors regression (K-NNR), and artificial neural network (ANN). DTR algorithm has the least errors and the most R2, indicating it as the most accurate method. The DSSC-TEG hybrid system was extrapolated based on the results of the DTR and taking the worst-case scenario (node-6). The main question is how many thermoelectric generators (TEGs) are needed for an inverter to operate a hydraulic pump to circulate water, and how much area is required for that number of TEGs. Considering the average value of the electric voltage of the TEG belonging to node-6, 60,741 pieces of TEGs would be needed, which means about 98 m2 to circulate water.

Flight pass is a new concept in which airline passengers pre-purchase a number of flights for a flat fee. This flat flee can be customized by the passenger and has an expiring date. Being an innovative concept, the industry is still lacking analytical support to define the prices for these passes. This research is aimed to fill this research gap. We propose a data-driven modeling framework that determines the value of each option per flight and that, consequently, estimates the recommended flight pass price. This is the first time in the literature that flight passes are discussed. The framework is divided in two models. First, a random forest regression is used to predict the ticket price of individual flights. Second, the flight pass prices are predicted using a Monte-Carlo simulation. The simulation is used to estimate the potential behavior of a passenger when using the flight pass. Since no reliable flight pass data was available, we make use of historical booking data from revenue management available from a major African airline to design, calibrate, and validate our models. With an average fit of 57 percent, the random forest regression algorithm can adequately predict the flight price, improving the current trial-and-error or linear regression approaches followed by most airlines. Moreover, the Monte-Carlo simulation is fast enough to support an online implementation of the proposed modeling framework to estimate flight passes prices.

The safety of intersections has been the focus of many studies since intersections are considered hazardous zones of road networks. Identifying the main contributing factors of severe traffic crashes at intersections is crucial to implementing appropriate countermeasures. We investigated the major contributing factors to crash injury severity at intersections, particularly pavement surface friction. Nine years of intersection crash data in Wyoming have been analyzed for this study. The random forest technique was employed to identify the importance of critical variables influencing crash injury severity risk. Subsequently, a Bayesian ordinal probit model was applied to examine the relationships between crash injury severity risk and these crash contributing factors. As per the random forest model’s results, pavement friction has a strong impact on crash injury severity risk along with using safety restraints, intersection type, signalized or unsignalized, reckless driving, and crash type. The results of the Bayesian model demonstrated that higher pavement surface friction levels and proper use of restraints reduced the likelihood of severe injury. Based on these findings, several countermeasures may be proposed, such as those pavement friction requirements, driver’s education, and traffic law enforcement to mitigate injury severity concerns at intersections.

The accurate estimation of anthropogenic carbon emissions is of great significance for understanding the global carbon cycle and guides the setting and implementation of global climate policy and CO2 emission-reduction goals. This study built a data-driven stacked random forest regression model for estimating gridded global fossil fuel CO2 emissions. The driving variables include the annual features of column-averaged CO2 dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) anomalies based on their ecofloristic zone, night-time light data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), terrestrial carbon fluxes, and vegetation parameters. A two-layer stacked random forest regression model was built to fit 1° gridded inventory of open-source data inventory for anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC). Then, the model was trained using the 2014–2018 dataset to estimate emissions in 2019, which provided a higher accuracy compared with a single-layer model with an R2 of 0.766 and an RMSE of 0.359. The predicted gridded emissions are consistent with Global Carbon Grid at 1° scale with an R2 of 0.665, and the national total emissions provided a higher R2 at 0.977 with the Global Carbon Project (GCP) data, as compared to the ODIAC (R2 = 0.956) data, in European countries. This study demonstrates that data-driven random forest regression models are capable of estimating anthropogenic CO2 emissions at a grid scale.

The issue of air quality has attracted more and more attention. The main methods for monitoring the concentration of pollutants in the air include national monitoring station monitoring and micro air quality detector testing. Since the electrochemical sensor of the micro air quality detector is susceptible to interference, the monitored data has a certain deviation. In this paper, the combined model of partial least square regression and random forest regression (PLS-RFR) is used to correct the detection data of the micro air quality detector. First, correlation analysis is used to find out the factors that affect the concentration of pollutants. Second, partial least squares regression is used to give the quantitative relationship of the influence of each influencing factor on the concentration of pollutants. Finally, the predicted value of partial least squares regression and various influencing factors are used as independent variables, and the pollutant concentration monitored by the national monitoring station is used as the dependent variable, and the PLS-RFR model is obtained with the help of random forest software package. Relative Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), goodness of fit (R2), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are used as evaluation indicators to compare PLS-RFR model, support vector machine model and multilayer perceptron neural network. The results show that no matter which evaluation index, the prediction effect of the PLS-RFR model is the best, and the model has a good prediction effect in the training set or the test set, indicating that the model has good generalization ability. This model can play an active role in the promotion and deployment of micro air quality detectors.

Current approaches to automating cost estimation mainly focus on construction costs. Yet, the two main services provided by design firms, namely ‘designing the project’, and ‘supervision of construction operations’ labelled as engineering services, despite their comparatively low cost, can significantly affect the total cost of construction projects as they can engender reworks, changes and disputes on project participants during the subsequent stages of the project. Continuous evaluation of engineering services' cost overruns (ESCO) is quintessentially important in order to prevent consequential problems later on in the project's development and use. Consequently, this research proposes a robust random forest (RF) regression model to predict ESCOs considering both project-related and organizational-related variables. A database consisting of 95 high-rise residential building projects designed during the past eight years in Iran, along with 12 related variables, were collected to develop and validate the model. The results were also compared with those of support vector regression (SVR) and multiple linear regression (MLR), which indicated that with an R2 value of 0.8680 and mean-absolute-error (MAE) of 3.88, the RF regression model performs better than those baseline models, namely SVR and MLR. This research presents two main contributions to the existing body of knowledge. From the practical point of view, it provides an efficient tool for design firms enabling them to screen and prioritize their projects from the cost overrun standpoint and to devise a contingency plan for them. From the theoretical point of view, it revealed that to mitigate ESCOs, three key factors should be given thorough consideration, namely: ‘the level of computer-aided design technologies adoption’; ‘level of communication among the project team’; and scope definition adequacy’ – cumulatively, these three factors contribute to 52.35% of ESCO variations. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Tumor purity refers to the proportion of tumor cells in tumor tissue samples. This value plays an important role in understanding the mechanisms of the tumor microenvironment. Although various attempts have been made to predict tumor purity, attempts to predict tumor purity using miRNAs are still lacking. We predicted tumor purity using miRNA expression data for 16 TCGA tumor types using random forest regression. In addition, we identified miRNAs with high feature-importance scores and examined the extent of the change in predictive performance using informative miRNAs. The predictive performance obtained using only 10 miRNAs with high feature importance was close to the result obtained using all miRNAs. Furthermore, we also found genes targeted by miRNAs and confirmed that these genes were mainly related to immune and cancer pathways. Therefore, we found that the miRNA expression data could predict tumor purity well, and the results suggested the possibility that 10 miRNAs with high feature importance could be used as potential markers to predict tumor purity and to help improve our understanding of the tumor microenvironment.

Soil moisture content (SMC) plays an important role in the hydrological functioning of wetlands. Remote sensing shows potential for the quantification and monitoring of the SMC of palustrine wetlands; however, this technique remains to be assessed across a wetland–terrestrial gradient in South Africa. The ability of the Sentinel Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and optical sensors, which are freely available from the European Space Agency, were evaluated to predict SMC for a palustrine wetland and surrounding terrestrial areas in the grassland biome of South Africa. The percentage of volumetric water content (%VWC) was measured across the wetland and terrestrial areas of the Colbyn Wetland Nature Reserve, located in the City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality of the Gauteng Province, using a handheld SMT-100 soil moisture meter at a depth of 5 cm during the peak and end of the hydroperiod in 2018. The %VWC was regressed against the Sentinel imagery, using random forest, simple linear and support vector machine regression models. Random forest yielded the highest prediction accuracies in comparison to the other models. The results indicate that the Sentinel images have the potential to be used to predict SMC with a high coefficient of determination (Sentinel-1 SAR = R²>0.9; Sentinel-2 optical = R²>0.9) and a relatively low root mean square error (Sentinel-1 RMSE = 50%VWC; p

Background Animals respond to environmental variation by changing their movement in a multifaceted way. Recent advancements in biologging increasingly allow for detailed measurements of the multifaceted nature of movement, from descriptors of animal movement trajectories (e.g., using GPS) to descriptors of body part movements (e.g., using tri-axial accelerometers). Because this multivariate richness of movement data complicates inference on the environmental influence on animal movement, studies generally use simplified movement descriptors in statistical analyses. However, doing so limits the inference on the environmental influence on movement, as this requires that the multivariate richness of movement data can be fully considered in an analysis. Methods We propose a data-driven analytic framework, based on existing methods, to quantify the environmental influence on animal movement that can accommodate the multifaceted nature of animal movement. Instead of fitting a simplified movement descriptor to a suite of environmental variables, our proposed framework centres on predicting an environmental variable from the full set of multivariate movement data. The measure of fit of this prediction is taken to be the metric that quantifies how much of the environmental variation relates to the multivariate variation in animal movement. We demonstrate the usefulness of this framework through a case study about the influence of grass availability and time since milking on cow movements using machine learning algorithms. Results We show that on a one-hour timescale 37% of the variation in grass availability and 33% of time since milking influenced cow movements. Grass availability mostly influenced the cows’ neck movement during grazing, while time since milking mostly influenced the movement through the landscape and the shared variation of accelerometer and GPS data (e.g., activity patterns). Furthermore, this framework proved to be insensitive to spurious correlations between environmental variables in quantifying the influence on animal movement. Conclusions Not only is our proposed framework well-suited to study the environmental influence on animal movement; we argue that it can also be applied in any field that uses multivariate biologging data, e.g., animal physiology, to study the relationships between animals and their environment.

Percentages of acute malnutrition continue to be unsettlingly high in developing countries, while coverage of treatment remains unsatisfactory. Here I develop software to predict acute malnutrition prevalence at a high resolution across sub-Saharan Africa. First I assembled a training dataset for machine learning of malnutrition prevalence. The 33 training variables may be split into five categories: development, economics, political situations, climate, and crop health. I then trained a random forest regressor on these features to predict acute malnutrition prevalence at a 5km resolution across sub-Saharan Africa. A validation with a train-test split showed that the algorithm could predict malnutrition prevalence with an average difference of 0.86\% prevalence, corresponding to an error of 10.7\%. The training features with the highest predictive power are, in order: female education, precipitation, forest cover, school attendance, and political stability. Next, acute malnutrition prevalence was forecasted to 2021. These predictions suggest that the prevalence of acute malnutrition will continue to decrease in coming years, but the number of acute malnutrition cases will actually increase due to population growth. This work highlights the importance of female education as well as the need for more cost-effective nutrition interventions as the number of acute malnutrition cases begins to rise.

GPS and accelerometer sensor data from cows used in a data-driven analytic framework to quantify the environmental contribution to animal movement

Crest length is an important parameter in influencing the discharge handling capacity of a weir. Nonlinear weirs with longer crests are cost effective alternatives for those existing dam structures which are more susceptible to failure due to loss of storage capacity by reservoir silting problem, and insufficiency of the structure in evacuating the updated flow due to the limited space. Piano key weir is a type of nonlinear weir designed in the form of piano keys, over-hanged from both the upstream and the downstream with sloping floors founded on a base or footprint. These weirs can be easily placed over gravity dams due to smaller footprint than labyrinth weirs. The present study’s focus is on the comparative analysis of identical configurations of trapezoidal and rectangular piano key (PK) weirs. The importance of (crest length to width) L/W ratio and weir height (P) in affecting the discharge efficiency of both types of PK weirs is investigated in the experimental study. Furthermore, soft computing approaches are applied to the current data set obtained from both types of weirs by considering discharge coefficient ($$C_{\text{d}}$$Cd) as a function of dimensionless geometric variables of PK weirs. The modelling performance of random forest regression and M5 tree approach is tested in order to estimate the values of discharge coefficient. The results conclude higher predictive accuracy of random forest model over M5 tree model.

EnvironmentAsia, 13, 1, 41-52

Urbanization processes greatly change urban landscape patterns and the urban thermal environment. Significant multi-scale correlation exists between the land surface temperature (LST) and landscape pattern. Compared with traditional linear regression methods, the regression model based on random forest has the advantages of higher accuracy and better learning ability, and can remove the linear correlation between regression features. Taking Beijing’s metropolitan area as an example, this paper conducted multi-scale relationship analysis between 3D landscape patterns and LST using Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC), Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest Regression (RFR). The results indicated that LST was relatively high in the central area of Beijing, and decreased from the center to the surrounding areas. The interpretation effect of 3D landscape metrics on LST was more obvious than that of the 2D landscape metrics, and 3D landscape diversity and evenness played more important roles than the other metrics in the change of LST. The multi-scale relationship between LST and the landscape pattern was discovered in the fourth ring road of Beijing, the effect of the extent of change on the landscape pattern is greater than that of the grain size change, and the interpretation effect and correlation of landscape metrics on LST increase with the increase in the rectangle size. Impervious surfaces significantly increased the LST, while the impervious surfaces located at low building areas were more likely to increase LST than those located at tall building areas. It seems that increasing the distance between buildings to improve the rate of energy exchange between urban and rural areas can effectively decrease LST. Vegetation and water can effectively reduce LST, but large, clustered and irregularly shaped patches have a better effect on land surface cooling than small and discrete patches. The Coefficients of Rectangle Variation (CORV) power function fitting results of landscape metrics showed that the optimal rectangle size for studying the relationship between the 3D landscape pattern and LST is about 700 m. Our study is useful for future urban planning and provides references to mitigate the daytime urban heat island (UHI) effect.

The object of this research is concrete-filled steel tubes (CFST). The article aimed to develop a prediction Multiphysics model for the circular CFST column by using the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and the Gene Expression Program (GEP). The database for this study contains 1667 datapoints in which 702 are short CFST columns and 965 are long CFST columns. The input parameters are the geometric dimensions of the structural elements of the column and the mechanical properties of materials. The target parameters are the bearing capacity of columns, which determines their life cycle. A Multiphysics model was developed, and various statistical checks were applied using the three artificial intelligence techniques mentioned above. Parametric and sensitivity analyses were also performed on both short and long GEP models. The overall performance of the GEP model was better than the ANN and ANFIS models, and the prediction values of the GEP model were near actual values. The PI of the predicted Nst by GEP, ANN and ANFIS for training are 0.0416, 0.1423, and 0.1016, respectively, and for Nlg these values are 0.1169, 0.2990 and 0.1542, respectively. Corresponding OF values are 0.2300, 0.1200, and 0.090 for Nst, and 0.1000, 0.2700, and 0.1500 for Nlg. The superiority of the GEP method to the other techniques can be seen from the fact that the GEP technique provides suitable connections based on practical experimental work and does not rely on prior solutions. It is concluded that the GEP model can be used to predict the bearing capacity of circular CFST columns to avoid any laborious and time-consuming experimental work. It is also recommended that further research should be performed on the data to develop a prediction equation using other techniques such as Random Forest Regression and Multi Expression Program.

Ship energy management has an effect both on cost efficiency and the environment due to the huge amount of CO2 emission caused by ship activities. Meanwhile, research regarding efforts to save energy consumption in the container terminal area is scarce. This paper aims to estimate CO2 emissions from ship activities in the container port. The influential variable of CO2 emissions is in consideration to Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP). The estimation of C02 emission starts from the ship activities when the ship approaches the port, which includes ship maneuvering and ship berthing. Ship’s energy consumption and CO2 emission were analyzed using random forest regression (RF) at the default setting, and then the effectiveness was verified using k-folds cross-validation. The analysis result showed there are five influential variables to reduce the CO2 emission: (1) main engine power; (2) auxiliary engine power; (3) waiting time in a port basin; (4) maneuvering time; and (5) berthing time. Among those five variables, maneuvering, waiting in a port basin, and berthing have the same position at the top with the same amount of weight importance from the four attribute selection training results. The random forest model training and k-folds cross-validation confirmed that the model has 98.85% of accuracy. Finally, a fuel-efficient operation is discussed, and it can be concluded that by combining several voyage optimizations with a skilled operator and cold ironing when available, it is possible to reduce the CO2 emission by 20%. The findings and proposed plan in this paper can become a reference to develop Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan.

In industrial piping systems, turbomachinery, heat exchangers etc., pipe bends are essential components. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD), which is frequently used to analyse the flow behaviour in such systems, provides extremely precise estimates but is computationally expensive. As a result, a computationally efficient method is developed in this paper by leveraging machine learning for such computationally expensive CFD problems. Random forest regression (RFR) is used as the machine learning algorithm in this work. Four different fluid flow characteristics (i.e., axial velocity, x-velocity, y-velocity and z-velocity) are studied in this work. The accuracy of the RFR models is assessed by using a number of statistical metrics such as mean-absolute error (MAE), mean-squared-error (MSE), root-mean-squared-error (RMSE), maximum error (Max.Error) and median error (Med.Error) etc. It is observed that the RFR models can produce considerable cost reductions in computing by surrogating the CFD model. Minor loss in estimation accuracy as compared to the CFD models is observed. While the magnitude of intricate flow characteristics such as the additional vortices are correctly predicted, some error in their location is observed.

This paper proposes a new frequency decomposition-based hybrid reactive power forecasting algorithm, EEMD-LSTM-RFR (ELR), which adopts a strategy of frequency decomposition prediction after ensemble empirical mode decomposition and then data reconstruction to improve the prediction ability of reactive power. This decomposition process can compress the high frequency of reactive power and benefits the following separate forecasting. Long short-term memory is proposed for the high-frequency feature of reactive power to deal with the forecasting difficulty caused by strong signal disturbance and randomness. In contrast, random forest regression is applied to the low-frequency part in order to speed up the forecasting. Four classical algorithms and four hybrid algorithms based on different signal decompositions are compared with the proposed algorithm, and the results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms those algorithms. The predicting index RMSE decreases to 0.687, while the fitting degree R2 gradually approaches 1 with a step-by-step superposition of high-frequency signals, indicating that the proposed decomposition-predicting reconstruction strategy is effective.

Land surface temperature (LST) is one of the crucial parameters in the physical processes of the Earth. Acquiring LST images with high spatial and temporal resolutions is currently difficult because of the technical restriction of satellite thermal infrared sensors. Downscaling LST from coarse to fine spatial resolution is an effective means to alleviate this problem. A spatial random forest downscaling LST method (SRFD) was proposed in this study. Abundant predictor variables—including land surface reflection data, remote sensing spectral indexes, terrain factors, and land cover type data—were considered and applied for feature selection in SRFD. Moreover, the shortcoming of only focusing on information from point-to-point in previous statistics-based downscaling methods was supplemented by adding the spatial feature of LST. SRFD was applied to three different heterogeneous regions and compared with the results from three classical or excellent methods, including thermal image sharpening algorithm, multifactor geographically weighted regression, and random forest downscaling method. Results show that SRFD outperforms other methods in vision and statistics due to the benefits from the supplement of the LST spatial feature. Specifically, compared with RFD, the second-best method, the downscaling results of SRFD are 10% to 24% lower in root-mean-square error, 5% to 20% higher in the coefficient of determination, 11% to 25% lower in mean absolute error, and 4% to 17% higher in structural similarity index measure. Hence, we conclude that SRFD will be a promising LST downscaling method.

Monitoring and management of plant water status over the critical period between flowering and veraison, plays a significant role in producing grapes of premium quality. Hyperspectral spectroscopy has been widely studied in precision farming, including for the prediction of grapevine water status. However, these studies were presented based on various combinations of transformed spectral data, feature selection methods, and regression models. To evaluate the performance of different modeling pipelines for estimating grapevine water status, a study spanning the critical period was carried out in two commercial vineyards at Martinborough, New Zealand. The modeling used six hyperspectral data groups (raw reflectance, first derivative reflectance, second derivative reflectance, continuum removal variables, simple ratio indices, and vegetation indices), two variable selection methods (Spearman correlation and recursive feature elimination based on cross-validation), an ensemble of selected variables, and three regression models (partial least squares regression, random forest regression, and support vector regression). Stem water potential (used as a proxy for vine water status) was measured by a pressure bomb. Hyperspectral reflectance was undertaken by a handheld spectroradiometer. The results show that the best predictive performance was achieved by applying partial least squares regression to simple ratio indices (R2 = 0.85; RMSE = 110 kPa). Models trained with an ensemble of selected variables comprising multicombination of transformed data and variable selection approaches outperformed those fitted using single combinations. Although larger data sizes are needed for further testing, this study compares 38 modeling pipelines and presents the best combination of procedures for estimating vine water status. This may lead to the provision of rapid estimation of vine water status in a nondestructive manner and highlights the possibility of applying hyperspectral data to precision irrigation in vineyards.

Fine particulate matter in the lower atmosphere (PM2.5) continues to be a major public health problem globally. Identifying the key contributors to PM2.5 pollution is important in monitoring and managing atmospheric quality, for example, in controlling haze. Previous research has been aimed at quantifying the relationship between PM2.5 values and their underlying factors, but the spatial and temporal dynamics of these factors are not well understood. Based on random forest and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) algorithms, this study analyses the spatiotemporal variations in selected key factors influencing PM2.5 in Zhejiang Province, China, for the period 2000–2019. The results indicate that, while factors influencing PM2.5 varied significantly during the period studied, SHAP values suggest that there is consistency in their relative importance as follows: meteorological factors (e.g., atmospheric pressure) > socioeconomic factors (e.g., gross domestic product, GDP) > topography and land cover factors (e.g., elevation). The contribution of GDP and transportation factors initially increased but has declined in the recent past, indicating that economic and infrastructural development does not necessarily result in increased PM2.5 concentrations. Vegetation productivity, as indicated by changes in NDVI, is demonstrated to have become more important in improving air quality, and the area of the province over which it constrains PM2.5 concentrations has increased between 2000 and 2019. Mapping of SHAP values suggests that, although the relative importance of industrial emissions has declined during the period studied, the actual area positively impacted by such emissions has actually increased. Despite developments in government policy, greater efforts to conserve energy and reduce emissions are still needed. The study further demonstrates that the combination of random forest and SHAP methods provides a valuable means to identify regional differences in key factors affecting atmospheric PM2.5 values and offers a reliable reference for pollution control strategies.

Farkli veri setleri uzerinde yapilan uygulamalar sonucunda modellenmesi zor olan degiskenlerin varliginda klasik regresyon yontemlerine alternatif olarak makine ogrenmesi regresyon yontemlerinin kullanimi tavsiye edilmektedir. Saglik harcamasi modellenmesi zor olan bir degisken olup, literaturde makine ogrenmesi regresyon yontemleri karsilastirilarak bu degiskenin modellendigi bir calismaya rastlanmamistir. Bu calismada kisi basi saglik harcamasinin tahmini amaciyla bir coklu regresyon modeli olusturulmustur. Farkli hiperparametre degerleri belirlendiginde elde edilen Lasso Regresyon, Rastgele Agac Regresyonu ile Destek Vektor Makinesi Regresyon performans sonuclari karsilastirilmistir. Calismada hiperparametre degeri olarak Lasso Regresyon icin lamda (λ) degeri, Rastgele Agac Regresyonu icin agac sayisi, Destek Vektor Regresyonu icin epsilon ( ) degeri esas alinmistir. Sonuclar 5 ile 50 arasinda degisen “k” parca capraz gecerlilik uygulanarak performe edildiginde makine ogrenmesi regresyon yontemlerine ait performans sonuclarinin R 2 , RMSE ve MAE degerleri bakimindan istatistiksel olarak anlamli farkliliklar gosterdigi (p < 0.001) tespit edilmistir. Tahmin performanslarina ait yuzey ve cubuk grafikleri ile istatistiksel test sonuclari incelendiginde farkli hiperparametre degerlerine gore Rastgele Agac Regresyonun (R 2 ˃ 0.7500, RMSE ≤ 0.6000 ve MAE ≤ 0.4000) daha iyi tahmin sonuclarina sahip oldugu belirlenmistir. Calisma sonuclarinin, saglik harcamasinin modellendigi arastirmalar icin makine ogrenmesi regresyon yontemleri kullanildiginda en uygun hiperparametre degerlerinin belirlenmesi konusunda katki saglamasi beklenmektedir.

Background Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based remote sensing provides a flexible, low-cost, and efficient approach to monitor crop growth status at fine spatial and temporal resolutions, and has a high potential to accelerate breeding process and improve precision field management. Method In this study, we discussed the use of lightweight UAV with dual image-frame snapshot cameras to estimate aboveground biomass (AGB) and panicle biomass (PB) of rice at different growth stages with different nitrogen (N) treatments. The spatial–temporal variations in the typical vegetation indices (VIs) and AGB were first investigated, and the accuracy of crop surface model (CSM) extracted from the Red Green Blue (RGB) images at two different stages were also evaluated. Random forest (RF) model for AGB estimation as well as the PB was then developed. Furthermore, variable importance and sensitivity analysis of UAV variables were performed to study the potential of improving model robustness and prediction accuracies. Results It was found that the canopy height extracted from the CSM (Hcsm) exhibited a high correlation with the ground-measured canopy height, while it was unsuitable to be independently used for biomass assessment of rice during the entire growth stages. We also observed that several VIs were highly correlated with AGB, and the modified normalized difference spectral index extracted from the multispectral image achieved the highest correlation. RF model with fusing RGB and multispectral image data substantially improved the prediction results of AGB and PB with the prediction of root mean square error (RMSEP) reduced by 8.33–16.00%. The best prediction results for AGB and PB were achieved with the coefficient of determination (r2), the RMSEP and relative RMSE (RRMSE) of 0.90, 0.21 kg/m2 and 14.05%, and 0.68, 0.10 kg/m2 and 12.11%, respectively. In addition, the result confirmed that the sensitivity analysis could simplify the prediction model without reducing the prediction accuracy. Conclusion These findings demonstrate the feasibility of applying lightweight UAV with dual image-frame snapshot cameras for rice biomass estimation, and its potential for high throughput analysis of plant growth-related traits in precision agriculture as well as the advanced breeding program. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s13007-019-0418-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Highlights • Data driven spatially explicit index of hydro-political issues magnitude. • Estimation of the non-linear interactions between factors determining water issues. • Increasing climate change and population are likely to boost hydro-political issues., Competition over limited water resources is one of the main concerns for the coming decades. Although water issues alone have not been the sole trigger for warfare in the past, tensions over freshwater management and use represent one of the main concerns in political relations between riparian states and may exacerbate existing tensions, increase regional instability and social unrest. Previous studies made great efforts to understand how international water management problems were addressed by actors in a more cooperative or confrontational way. In this study, we analyze what are the pre-conditions favoring the insurgence of water management issues in shared water bodies, rather than focusing on the way water issues are then managed among actors. We do so by proposing an innovative analysis of past episodes of conflict and cooperation over transboundary water resources (jointly defined as “hydro-political interactions”). On the one hand, we aim at highlighting the factors that are more relevant in determining water interactions across political boundaries. On the other hand, our objective is to map and monitor the evolution of the likelihood of experiencing hydro-political interactions over space and time, under changing socioeconomic and biophysical scenarios, through a spatially explicit data driven index. Historical cross-border water interactions were used as indicators of the magnitude of corresponding water joint-management issues. These were correlated with information about river basin freshwater availability, climate stress, human pressure on water resources, socioeconomic conditions (including institutional development and power imbalances), and topographic characteristics. This analysis allows for identification of the main factors that determine water interactions, such as water availability, population density, power imbalances, and climatic stressors. The proposed model was used to map at high spatial resolution the probability of experiencing hydro-political interactions worldwide. This baseline outline is then compared to four distinct climate and population density projections aimed to estimate trends for hydro-political interactions under future conditions (2050 and 2100), while considering two greenhouse gases emission scenarios (moderate and extreme climate change). The combination of climate and population growth dynamics is expected to impact negatively on the overall hydro-political risk by increasing the likelihood of water interactions in the transboundary river basins, with an average increase ranging between 74.9% (2050 – population and moderate climate change) to 95% (2100 - population and extreme climate change). Future demographic and climatic conditions are expected to exert particular pressure on already water stressed basins such as the Nile, the Ganges/Brahmaputra, the Indus, the Tigris/Euphrates, and the Colorado. The results of this work allow us to identify current and future areas where water issues are more likely to arise, and where cooperation over water should be actively pursued to avoid possible tensions especially under changing environmental conditions. From a policy perspective, the index presented in this study can be used to provide a sound quantitative basis to the assessment of the Sustainable Development Goal 6, Target 6.5 “Water resources management”, and in particular to indicator 6.5.2 “Transboundary cooperation”.

The Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in summer is a key indicator of global climate change and important information for the development of a more economically valuable Northern Sea Route. Passive microwave (PM) sensors have provided information on the SIC since the 1970s by observing the brightness temperature (TB) of sea ice and open water. However, the SIC in the Arctic estimated by operational algorithms for PM observations is very inaccurate in summer because the TB values of sea ice and open water become similar due to atmospheric effects. In this study, we developed a summer SIC retrieval model for the Pacific Arctic Ocean using Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) observations and European Reanalysis Agency-5 (ERA-5) reanalysis fields based on Random Forest (RF) regression. SIC values computed from the ice/water maps generated from the Korean Multi-purpose Satellite-5 synthetic aperture radar images from July to September in 2015–2017 were used as a reference dataset. A total of 24 features including the TB values of AMSR2 channels, the ratios of TB values (the polarization ratio and the spectral gradient ratio (GR)), total columnar water vapor (TCWV), wind speed, air temperature at 2 m and 925 hPa, and the 30-day average of the air temperatures from the ERA-5 were used as the input variables for the RF model. The RF model showed greatly superior performance in retrieving summer SIC values in the Pacific Arctic Ocean to the Bootstrap (BT) and Arctic Radiation and Turbulence Interaction STudy (ARTIST) Sea Ice (ASI) algorithms under various atmospheric conditions. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the RF SIC values was 7.89% compared to the reference SIC values. The BT and ASI SIC values had three times greater values of RMSE (20.19% and 21.39%, respectively) than the RF SIC values. The air temperatures at 2 m and 925 hPa and their 30-day averages, which indicate the ice surface melting conditions, as well as the GR using the vertically polarized channels at 23 GHz and 18 GHz (GR(23V18V)), TCWV, and GR(36V18V), which accounts for atmospheric water content, were identified as the variables that contributed greatly to the RF model. These important variables allowed the RF model to retrieve unbiased and accurate SIC values by taking into account the changes in TB values of sea ice and open water caused by atmospheric effects.