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This study develops a projection model of future population distribution on the basis of Japan’s current depopulation trend and applies this model to scenario analyses that assume population compactification and dispersion. The model enables a description of population migration at two levels. First, municipal populations are projected using the cohort-component method, and second, the spatial distribution of populations within municipalities is projected at a 500 m grid resolution with the use of the gravity model. Based on the Japanese depopulation context and the country’s National Spatial Strategy, the compact scenario predicts the formation of medium-scale regional urban areas (population centers located across Japan) and the concentration of people on high-density population areas within municipalities. Meanwhile, the dispersed scenario predicts the formation of more but smaller regional urban areas and the dispersion of the population to low-density areas. The simulated population distribution for 2050 reveals spatial change in population density and age structure, as well as an abundance of areas that were inhabited in 2015 but will be zero population areas by 2050. Overlay analysis of future land use maps and the simulated population distribution maps can contribute toward identifying areas where natural capital such as farmland and forest plantation should be managed but where there will be significant population loss by 2050. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s11625-020-00835-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Rocky Mountain tailed frog, Ascaphus montanus, is a species at‐risk in Canada. Based upon time‐ and area‐constrained physical search surveys completed between 1996 and 2004, its Canadian distribution was defined as occurring in 19 tributaries and reaches within the Yahk and west side Flathead River Basins of British Columbia. We undertook a five‐year (2014–2018 inclusive) environmental DNA (eDNA) survey to reassess the distribution of Rocky Mountain tailed frog, focusing on tributaries proximal to known extant occurrence records. Seventeen days of field sampling were performed over the five‐year period. Targeted qPCR‐based eDNA approaches proved more effective than conventional physical search methods for detecting tailed frogs due to relatively rapid field collection, low cost of filter materials, elimination of observer bias, and higher detection probabilities compared to conventional time‐constrained survey methods. One hundred and forty sites were examined (138 for eDNA plus two visual only). Thirty‐two of the 138 sites (23%) tested positive for Rocky Mountain tailed frog DNA, including from the four extant populations sampled, whereas visual observations occurred at only seven of the sites (5%) during the survey. During the study, we evaluated two tailed frog tests and the mitigation of false negatives through testing for qPCR inhibition and sample degradation, and we demonstrate their utility in evaluating eDNA data quality. These results expand the extant range of Rocky Mountain tailed frog in the Flathead, Wigwam, and Yahk watersheds and add two new watersheds (Moyie and Tepee) by identifying five newly recorded occupied drainages in Canada: Elder Creek, Upper Wigwam River, Tepee Creek, Gilnockie Creek, and Elmer Creek. These data are important to refine and augment wildlife habitat conservation areas for Rocky Mountain tailed frog.

This thesis advances the use of geospatial data fusion as a means to bridge the gap between the conventional, yet limited, data sources and the geospatial data from emerging, unconventional, yet disparate, sources and formats. The project showcases different applications of this concept relevant to the assessment of human activity at European scale. Underpinning each application in the thesis is the research question: How can geospatial data from diverse sources and with different properties be combined to enhance the spatial representation of human activity? The thesis focuses on developing an ensemble of data fusion protocols to integrate geospatial data from both conventional and unconventional data sources with very different characteristics into consistent data frameworks to fill specific data, information and knowledge gaps. Within the geospatial sciences, data fusion has been used mainly in the remote sensing domain. This project tries to unlock the potential of data fusion for a broader set of geographical information science applications, with focus areas on land use (Chapters 2, 3, 4), sector-specific activities (Chapters 5, 6) and population distribution (Chapters 7, 8). The outcomes stretch beyond the production of fancier digital maps. The thesis synthesizes new information from structured data fusion approaches, where the results are more than the sum of the parts, allowing new insight about the spatial dimension of socio-economic phenomena, to ultimately feed decision-support tools.

Under the background of “the Belt and Road” and “China, Mongolia and Russia economic corridor” initiatives, this paper studied the spatial distribution pattern evolution of population and economy in Russia since the 21st century, which could provide implications for the regional development planning, economic optimization layout, energy resource development, transportation infrastructure construction between China and Russia. Combined with the panel data of population, GDP, land area, etc., we used the gravity center analysis, geographic concentration degree, and inconsistency index to study Russia’s population pattern evolution trend, economic pattern evolution trend, spatial inconsistency types of population distribution and economic development. The results and conclusions are as follows. Russia’s population and economic gravity centers have migrated towards the northwest direction. Russia’s population and economic distribution pattern presents the unbalanced development trend, which could be characterized by the differentiation pattern of “High West, Low East” and “High South, Low North” divided by the Ural Federal District. In the southwest areas of Russia, the population concentration degree is higher than the economic concentration degree in most federal subjects. In the northeast areas of Russia, the economic concentration degree is higher than the population concentration degree in most federal subjects.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are statistical tools used to develop continuous predictions of species occurrence. 'Integrated SDMs' (ISDMs) are an elaboration of this approach with potential advantages that allow for the dual use of opportunistically collected presence-only data and site-occupancy data from planned surveys. These models also account for survey bias and imperfect detection through the use of a hierarchical modelling framework that separately estimates the species-environment response and detection process. This is particularly helpful for conservation applications and predictions for rare species, where data are often limited and prediction errors may have significant management consequences. Despite this potential importance, ISDMs remain largely untested under a variety of scenarios. We performed an exploration of key modelling decisions and assumptions on an ISDM using the endangered Baird's tapir (Tapirus bairdii) as a test species. We found that site area had the strongest effect on the magnitude of population estimates and underlying intensity surface and was driven by estimates of model intercepts. Selecting a site area that accounted for the individual movements of the species within an average home range led to population estimates that coincided with expert estimates. ISDMs that do not account for the individual movements of species will likely lead to less accurate estimates of species intensity (number of individuals per unit area) and thus overall population estimates. This bias could be severe and highly detrimental to conservation actions if uninformed ISDMs are used to estimate global populations of threatened and data-deficient species, particularly those that lack natural history and movement information. However, the ISDM was consistently the most accurate model compared to other approaches, which demonstrates the importance of this new modelling framework and the ability to combine opportunistic data with systematic survey data. Thus, we recommend researchers use ISDMs with conservative movement information when estimating population sizes of rare and data-deficient species. ISDMs could be improved by using a similar parameterization to spatial capture-recapture models that explicitly incorporate animal movement as a model parameter, which would further remove the need for spatial subsampling prior to implementation. © 2019 Foundation for Environmental Conservation. Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, United States, Global Wildlife Conservation, Austin, TX, United States Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, United States Kelly, M.J., Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, United States Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, 25 Harbord Street, Toronto, ON M5S 3G5, Canada El Colegio de la Frontera sur, Departamento de Conservacion de la Biodiversidad, Lerma, Campeche, Mexico, Fundación Yaguara-Panama, Ciudad del Saber, Panama Global Wildlife Conservation, Austin, TX, United States, Panthera, New York, NY, United States, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States Proyecto de Conservación de Aguas y Tierras, ProCAT Colombia/Internacional, Bogotá, Colombia Instituto Internacional en Conservación y Manejo de Vida Silvestre, Universidad Nacional, Heredia, 3000-1350, Costa Rica Instituto Internacional en Conservación y Manejo de Vida Silvestre, Universidad Nacional, Heredia, 3000-1350, Costa Rica Instituto Internacional en Conservación y Manejo de Vida Silvestre

The reason for changes in ranking within urban systems is the subject of much debate. Employing the census data from 1990 to 2020, this paper investigates population dynamics across urban hierarchies and its influencing factors in the Yangtze River Delta. The results reveal an upward pattern of population dynamics and show that the advantages of high-ranking cities in population gathering are obvious, though they have declined recently. Based on a framework of urban amenity and the ridge regression model, the authors argue that concerns of residents in choosing cities in which to settle are gradually changing from economic opportunities to multidimensional amenities, finding that the influencing mechanisms vary across time. This is slightly different from Glaeser’s consumer cities; economic gains, as physiological needs, are always important for population growth. As higher-level needs, social and natural amenities, including Internet accessibility and urban green space, did not affect growth until the turn of the new millennium. In terms of negative factors, the ‘crowding-out effect’ of living costs and environmental pollution are not significant, as theoretically expected, suggesting that residents tend to care more about development opportunities than the negative impacts of living in high-ranking cities. Finally, policies are proposed to promote population growth and the coordinated development of large, medium, and small cities in the Yangtze River Delta.

The glycocalyx is a cell surface sugar layer of most cell types that greatly influences the interaction of cells with their environment. Its components are glycolipids, glycoproteins, and oligosaccharides. Interestingly, cancer cells have a thicker glycocalyx layer compared to healthy cells, but to date, there has been no consensus in the literature on the exact role of cell surface polysaccharides and their derivatives in cellular adhesion and signaling. In our previous work we discovered that specific glycocalyx components of cancer cells regulate the kinetics and strength of adhesion on RGD (arginine-glycine-aspartic acid) peptide-coated surfaces [1]. Depending on the employed enzyme concentration digesting specific components both adhesion strengthening and weakening could be observed by monitoring the averaged behavior of thousands of cells. The enzyme chondroitinase ABC (ChrABC) was used to digest the chondroitin-4-sulfate, chondroitin-6-sulfate, and dermatan sulfate components in the glycocalyx of cancer cells. In the present work, a high spatial resolution label-free optical biosensor was employed to monitor the adhesivity of cancer cells both at the single-cell and population level. Population-level distributions of single-cell adhesivity were first recorded and analyzed when ChrABC was added to the adhering cells. At relatively low and high ChrABC concentrations subpopulations with remarkably large and weak adhesivity were identified. The changes in the adhesivity distribution due to the enzyme treatment were analyzed and the subpopulations most affected by the enzyme treatment were highlighted. The presented results open up new directions in glycocalyx related cell adhesion research and in the development of more meaningful targeted cancer treatments affecting adhesion.

Població estrangera, immigració internacional, distribució de la població, mobilitat residencial, estructura per sexe i edat, Regió Metropolitana de Barcelona. Un dels principals canvis observats en les gran àrees urbanes espanyoles durant aquests darrers deu anys es deu a la incorporació de la població de nacionalitat estrangera (amb una alta intensitat i en un espai de temps breu). En aquest article s'analitza el cas de la ciutat de Barcelona i la seva Regió Metropolitana que, entre 1998 i 2007, ha agregat més de mig milió de nous residents estrangers, el que ha comportat un creixement demogràfic considerable, del voltant del 14% de la població inicial, tot i que amb diferències territorials remarcables. Aquesta dinàmica trenca amb l'estancament de població del període 1981-1996. L'article centra l'atenció en tres de les dinàmiques afectades directament per l'arribada de la immigració internacional, com és el creixement i la distribució de la població en la Regió Metropolitana, el seu impacte sobre la mobilitat residencial i les dinàmiques de suburbanització, i les conseqüències d'aquests canvis sobre l'estructura per sexe i edat de la població dels diferents àmbits metropolitans. Uno de los principales cambios acaecidos en las grandes áreas urbanas españolas durante estos últimos diez años se debe a la incorporación de población de nacionalidad extranjera, que se ha producido con una elevada intensidad y en un breve lapso de tiempo. En esta comunicación se explora el caso de la ciudad de Barcelona y su región metropolitana, que entre 1998 y 2007 ha incorporado más de medio millón de nuevos residentes extranjeros, causando un crecimiento demográfico considerable, en torno al 14% de la población inicial, aunque con diferencias territoriales remarcables. Esta dinámica rompe con el estancamiento de población del periodo 1981-1996. La atención se centrará en tres dinámicas que se encuentran directamente afectadas por la incorporación de la población extranjera, como son el crecimiento y la distribución de la población en la región metropolitana, el impacto sobre la movilidad residencial, y las consecuencias sobre la estructura por sexo y edad de la población. One of the most important changes that large Spanish urban areas have experienced in the last decade is the massive arrival of foreign nationality immigrants. This process has been very intense and concentrated in time. This paper explores the specific case of the city and the metropolitan area of Barcelona, where the number of foreign nationality residents between 1998 and 2007 has risen by more than half a million persons, surpassing 14% of the previous population. However, it should be noted that remarkable territorial differences are observed. This new dynamics of significant growth puts an end to the previous period (1981-1996), characterised by a stable population. Therefore, the paper will focus in three dynamics, which are affected by the arrival of foreign immigrants: the population growth and distribution within the metropolitan area; the impact on residential mobility; and the consequences of the age-and-sex population structure.

Целью статьи является обоснование методологии анализа системы расселения населения по территории разных рангов и определение основных трендов воспроизводства и размещения населения в разрезе регионов. В исследовании обосновано, что одним из элементов сбалансированного развития регионов является размещение населения, обусловленное социально-экономическими различиями на территории. В этой связи определены индикаторы, касающиеся региональных различий в структуре жизнеобеспечения населения. Обозначены принципы анализа системы расселения населения, которые впоследствии могут быть использованы при разработке механизмов реализации Концепции размещения населения. Исследование проведено в рамках программно-целевого финансирования Комитетом науки Министерства образования и науки Республики Казахстан («Разработка концепции и механизмов сбалансированного территориального развития экономики и общества Казахстана»), The purpose of the article is to substantiate the methodology for analyzing the system of population settlement across territories of different ranks and to determine the main trends in reproduction and distribution of the population in the context of regions. The study substantiates that one of the elements of the balanced development of regions is the distribution of the population, due to socio-economic differences in the territory. In this regard, indicators have been identified concerning regional differences in the structure of the population's life support. The principles of the analysis of the population settlement system are outlined, which can subsequently be used in the development of mechanisms for the implementation of the Concept of population placement. The scientific heritage No 73 (2021) 9 This research is funded by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan (targeted funding program «Developing the concept and mechanisms of balanced territorial development of the economy and society of Kazakhstan»)

This study provides an empirical application of the Bayesian approach for modelling the evolution of population density distribution across time. It focuses on the case of Massachusetts by tracking changes in the importance of spatial distance from Boston concerning citizens' choices of residence according to data for 1880- 1890 and 1930-2010. By adopting a Bayesian strategy, results show that Boston reinforced its attractiveness until the 1960s, when the city's accessibility no longer represented the unique determinant of population density distribution. Referring to selected historical evidence, a few possible interpretations are presented to endorse these results. La modélisation de la densité de la population au fil du temps: l'importance de la distance spatiale. Regional Studies.

Urban sprawl is thought to be a risk factor for childhood obesity primarily because the physical environment it creates discourages children's physical activity while encouraging their sedentary behavior. However, there has not been any review on the association between urban sprawl and childhood obesity. This study filled this research gap by comprehensively reviewing literature focusing on associations between urban sprawl and weight-related behaviors and outcomes among children and adolescents. Only two longitudinal and three cross-sectional studies conducted in two countries were identified. Sample sizes ranged from 2324 to 129 781. Four studies used weight status, and only one study used both behaviors and weight status as outcome variables. All positive, negative, and non-significant associations were reported. This review could not identify a clear association between urban sprawl and childhood obesity. More longitudinal studies are needed for in-depth analyses on this important topic in more regions, which would be important not only for public health guidelines but also for research, practice, and policies in urban planning. © 2020 The Authors. Obesity Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of World Obesity Federation

Resumo Este trabalho resulta da reconstrução teórico-conceitual realizada para verificar empiricamente a existência de urbanização extensiva na Amazônia com base na incorporação de noções demográficas ao referencial em questão. Observou-se como o tecido urbano contribui para a reconfiguração rural, evidenciando as múltiplas dimensões que perpassam o fenômeno urbano. Com indicadores demográficos sensíveis aos processos socioespaciais urbano-rurais, foram analisados territórios rurais de dois recortes regionais no oeste do estado do Pará. Os resultados confirmam que a propagação dos vetores urbanos tende a intensificar a aglomeração populacional (coeficiente de Gini) e a predominância espacial de mulheres (razão de sexo) por mecanismos de diferenciações espaciais. A existência de um eixo de mobilidade populacional, o regime de ocupação e a distância do centro urbano são os elementos estruturantes da emergência de um mosaico de ruralidades imersas em contextos urbanos. Com os resultados, concebeu-se um modelo teórico-metodológico com uma abordagem analítica inédita na literatura sobre urbanização. Abstract This paper unfolds to develop a new theoretical-conceptual reference about urbanization, working with demographic parameters into the extended urbanization theory. We intend to explore how the urban tissue contributes to the rural reconfiguration in the Brazilian Amazon fostering the multiples dimensions of urban phenomenon. Based on demographic indicators that are sensitive to socio-spatial processes, we build a methodological framework to analyze rural landscapes of two areas in the west side of Pará state, in Brazil. The results confirm that propagation of urban vectors tends to intensify the population agglomeration (Gini Index) and the women predominance (Sex Ratio) by mechanisms of spatial differentiation. The existence of a mobility axis, the population settlement regime and the distance from the urban center are the structural elements for creating a mosaic of ruralities immersed in urban contexts. With our findings, we conceived a theoretical-methodological model with an analytical approach unprecedented in the literature on urbanization.

RESUMEN: El departamento de Cundinamarca, Colombia, constituye un territorio con variedad de condiciones geográficas y ecosistémicas que hacen de este una de las regiones con mayor diversidad de aves en el país. Se actualizó el listado de aves y se determinaron los cambios en la composición, así como los vacíos de información. Se recopilaron los datos de campo de los autores entre 1990 y 2015, se revisó la literatura y las bases de datos y se consultaron observadores de aves expertos en la región. Fueron registradas 941 especies de las cuales 24 son endémicas, 72 casi endémicas, 1 especie extinta, 39 amenazadas a nivel nacional, 101 migratorias y 45 con migración local o altitudinal. En total, 701 especies fueron registradas por los autores en 45 localidades (48 registros nuevos para el departamento). Se concluye que existen vacíos de información en los límites departamentales, especialmente hacia la región del río Magdalena y los Llanos Orientales. Sin embargo, regiones donde existe mayor muestreo no se encuentran inventariadas en su totalidad, ya que en estas zonas se siguen encontrando nuevas especies de importancia para la ciencia. ABSTRACT: The department of Cundinamarca in Colombia is an area with diverse geographic and ecosystemic characteristics, a condition that makes it one of the regions in the country with highest diversity of birds. This study updates the list of birds in the department, as well as identifies changes in composition and gaps of information, through the recopilation of field data developed by the authors from 1990 to 2015, revision of different papers and databases, and consultation of experienced birdwatchers in the region. We found 941 records of bird species, of which 24 are endemic, 72 near endemic, 1 extinct, 39 nationally threatened, 101 migratory, and 45 present local and/or altitudinal migration. Of the total number of records, 701 correspond to the authors in 45 localities (48 are new records for the department). We note that there are gaps of information in departmental boundaries, especially in the region of the Magdalena River valley and Llanos Orientales. However, regions that have been more extensively sampled are not fully inventoried since new species for science are still being found. COL0147267

A predictive modelling for the simulation of bioreactors must account for both the biological and hydrodynamics complexities. Population balance models (PBM) are the best approach to conjointly describe these complexities, by accounting for the adaptation of inner metabolism for microorganisms that travel in a large-scale heterogeneous bioreactor. While being accurate for solving the PBM, the Class and Monte-Carlo methods are expensive in terms of calculation and memory use. Here, we apply Methods of Moments to solve a population balance equation describing the dynamic adaptation of a biological population to its environment. The use of quadrature methods (Maximum Entropy, QMOM or EQMOM) is required for a good integration of the metabolic behavior over the population. We then compare the accuracy provided by these methods against the class method which serves as a reference. We found that the use of 5 moments to describe a distribution of growth-rate over the population gives satisfactory accuracy against a simulation with a hundred classes. Thus, all methods of moments allow a significant decrease of memory usage in simulations. In terms of stability, QMOM and EQMOM performed far better than the Maximum Entropy method. The much lower memory impact of the methods of moments offers promising perspectives for the coupling of biological models with a fine hydrodynamics depiction.

PurposeProjecting the population distribution in geographical regions is important for many applications such as launching marketing campaigns or enhancing the public safety in certain densely populated areas. Conventional studies require the collection of people’s trajectory data through offline means, which is limited in terms of cost and data availability. The wide use of online social network (OSN) apps over smartphones has provided the opportunities of devising a lightweight approach of conducting the study using the online data of smartphone apps. This paper aims to reveal the relationship between the online social networks and the offline communities, as well as to project the population distribution by modeling geo-homophily in the online social networks.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, the authors propose the concept of geo-homophily in OSNs to determine how much the data of an OSN can help project the population distribution in a given division of geographical regions. Specifically, the authors establish a three-layered theoretic framework that first maps the online message diffusion among friends in the OSN to the offline population distribution over a given division of regions via a Dirichlet process and then projects the floating population across the regions.FindingsBy experiments over large-scale OSN data sets, the authors show that the proposed prediction models have a high prediction accuracy in characterizing the process of how the population distribution forms and how the floating population changes over time.Originality/valueThis paper tries to project population distribution by modeling geo-homophily in OSNs.

В статье выявлены тенденции и закономерности формирования доходов и расходов населения Республики Тыва. Приведены статистический анализ состава, структуры и динамики доходов и расходов населения и анализ статистического распределения населения по величине среднедушевых денежных доходов.

Au moment où le renouveau démographique des campagnes françaises, initié dès avant les années quatre-vingt-dix, est confirmé par les récentes statistiques, il semble indispensable d’analyser finement son impact concret sur ce qui contribue à composer et à organiser les petits établissements humains, qu’ils soient périurbains ou ruraux : les bourgs et les petites villes, les villages et les hameaux. Cette exploration de la « face cachée » de la mutation des campagnes durant ces 50 dernières années s’appuie sur la notion de granularité qui caractérise, dans un territoire donné, la distribution de ses habitants au sein des différentes classes d’établissements humains. Elle s’appuie sur la comparaison de 14 échantillons régionaux représentatifs de diverses structures agraires héritées. Plusieurs constats en émergent : la diversité des granularités régionales qui témoignent de la pérennité du semis de peuplement issu du « substrat rural » ; une redistribution généralisée des populations au sein des différentes classes d’établissements humains, notamment au profit des petites villes et des bourgs. En combinant ainsi approches morphologique et démographique aux niveaux inférieurs de la hiérarchie urbaine, ces travaux incitent à développer une réflexion sur les micro-agencements territoriaux, complémentaire à celle, déjà ancienne, qui porte sur les villes et les métropoles. Whereas the demographic renewal of the french countryside, initiated before the 1990s, is confirmed by recent datas, it seemed necessary to analyse in a closer way how it impacted small towns, villages, hamlets, which compose rural and suburban areas. This exploration of the “hidden face” of countryside changes over the past fifty years is based on the notion of granularity that characterizes, in a given space, the distribution of its inhabitants within the different kinds of human settlements. It relies on the comparison of fourteen regional samples representative of the various inherited agrarian structures. Several findings emerge: the diversity of regional granularities that testify to the durability of the population sowing from the “rural substrate”; a widespread population distribution within the different kinds of human settlements, particularly for the benefit of towns and villages. By combining morphological and demographic approaches at the lower levels of urban hierarchy, this works encourages to consider local urban configurations, complementary to the already long-standing one on cities and metropolises.

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la movilidad residencial dentro de la Región Metropolitana de Córdoba, particularmente los cambios de municipio de residencia en el período 2005-2010. Los datos provienen del Censo Nacional de Población, Hogares y Vivienda 2010 y se utiliza la información sobre el municipio de residencia habitual y en una fecha fija anterior. Se calculan tasas de ingresos y egresos a los diferentes municipios que componen la región, como así también tasas netas de movilidad residencial, según el tamaño de población y la distancia respecto del centro metropolitano. También se estima la intensidad de la movilidad residencial de acuerdo a las características de los individuos y hogares que protagonizaron dichos desplazamientos. Los municipios de menor tamaño y ubicados a una distancia intermedia exhiben las mayores tasas netas de movilidad residencial, y la mayor intensidad se registra entre los adultos de entre 30 y 39 años con mayores niveles educativos y en los niños de 5 a 9 años, que residen en hogares que se encuentran en la etapa inicial de la conformación del nuevo hogar familiar. Los resultados obtenidos dan cuenta del importante papel que tiene la movilidad residencial en la configuración de la nueva dinámica socio-territorial de la región. The main goal of this paper is to analyze residential mobility within the Córdoba Metropolitan Region, particularly changes in the municipality of residence in the period 2005-2010. The data come from the National Population, Household and Housing Census 2010 and information about the municipality of habitual residence and on a previous fixed date are used. Entry and exit rates are calculated for the different municipalities that make up the region, as well as net rates of residential mobility, according to the size of the population and the distance from the metropolitan center. The intensity of residential mobility is also estimated according to the characteristics of the individuals and households that carried out these displacements. The municipalities of smaller size and located at an intermediate distance exhibit the highest net rates of residential mobility, and the highest intensity is recorded among adults between 30 and 39 years old with higher educational levels and in children from 5 to 9 years old, that resided in a household in the process of raising children. The results obtained show the important role of residential mobility in the configuration of the new socio-territorial dynamics of the region. L’objectif de cet article est d’analyser la mobilité résidentielle dans la région métropolitaine de Córdoba, en particulier les changements de municipalité de résidence sur la période 2005-2010. Les données proviennent du recensement national de population, des ménages et des logements de 2010 et les informations sur la municipalité de résidence habituelle sont utilisées et à une date fixe antérieure, et les taux de revenus et de dépenses sont calculés pour les différentes municipalités qui composent la région. Les taux nets de mobilité résidentielle sont également calculés en fonction de la taille de la population et de la distance par rapport au centre métropolitain. L’intensité de la mobilité résidentielle est également estimée en fonction des caractéristiques des individus et des ménages ayant effectué ces déplacements. Les municipalités de plus petite taille et situées à une distance intermédiaire affichent les taux nets de mobilité résidentielle les plus élevés et l’intensité la plus élevée est enregistrée chez les adultes de 30 à 39 ans ayant un niveau de scolarité élevé et chez les enfants de 5 à 9 ans, ils résident dans des maisons qui en sont au stade initial de la création de la nouvelle maison familiale. Les résultats obtenus montrent le rôle important de la mobilité résidentielle dans la configuration des nouvelles dynamiques socio-territoriales de la région. Fil: Molinatti, Florencia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Cultura y Sociedad. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Cultura y Sociedad; Argentina

En 2012, une grande inondation par débordement fluvial a affecté le quotidien de 45464 personnes de la ville de Niamey. Suite à cet événement, les autorités ont décidé de relocaliser 4963 personnes hors zone inondable. Cependant, une grande partie des personnes déplacées sont revenues en zone à risque un mois plus tard et sont de nouveau inondées en 2013. Dans l’objectif de comprendre ce qui a motivé ce retour en zone inondable, il a été procédé à une enquête auprès des responsables de la ville et des résidents de sept quartiers du cinquième arrondissement communal. Elle a mis en évidence que les populations affectées se sont retrouvées quelques temps après leur relocalisation, dans des conditions de vie difficiles suite à une perte d’emploi et à un accès difficile à l’eau, au transport et au logement. Ces conditions ont révélé de nouvelles vulnérabilités et influencé le retour de certaines d’entre elles en zone inondable. In 2012, a large fluvial flood affected the daily life of 45464 people in the city of Niamey. Following this event, the authorities decided to relocate 4963 people outside the flooded zone. However, many people returned to the zone at risk a month later and were flooded again in 2013. In order to understand what motivated this return to the flooded zone, a survey was conducted among city officials and residents of seven neighborhoods in the fifth district. She pointed out that the affected populations found themselves some time after their relocation, in difficult living conditions as a result of job loss and difficult access to water, transport and housing. These conditions have revealed new vulnerabilities and influenced the return of some of them to flooded zone.

The authors explores the interdependence between demographic changes and transport network centrality, using Saint Petersburg as an example. The article describes the demographic data for the period 2002—2015 and the transportation network data of 2006. The authors employ several methods of demographic research; they identified the centre of gravity of the population, produce the standard deviational ellipsis and use the kernel density estimation. The street network centrality of Saint Petersburg was analyzed using the Multiple Centrality Assessment Model (MCA) and the Urban Network Analysis Tool for ArcGIS. The analysis of the population distribution in Saint Petersburg shows that each area of the city has seen their population grow over the last thirteen years. However, it is the population of suburban areas that increased the most. The core area of the city has the tendency of outward diffusion, and the population gravity centre has been moving northwards. Spatial characteristics of the population growth, changes in the population gravity centre, the standard deviational ellipse and characteristics of the street network centrality show that Saint Petersburg is at the final stage of urbanization and its development pattern is similar to that of other major cities.

Within the tropics, the species richness of tree communities is strongly and positively associated with precipitation. Previous research has suggested that this macroecological pattern is driven by the negative effect of water-stress on the physiological processes of most tree species. This implies that the range limits of taxa are defined by their ability to occur under dry conditions, and thus in terms of species distributions predicts a nested pattern of taxa distribution from wet to dry areas. However, this ‘dry-tolerance’ hypothesis has yet to be adequately tested at large spatial and taxonomic scales. Here, using a dataset of 531 inventory plots of closed canopy forest distributed across the western Neotropics we investigated how precipitation, evaluated both as mean annual precipitation and as the maximum climatological water deficit, influences the distribution of tropical tree species, genera and families. We find that the distributions of tree taxa are indeed nested along precipitation gradients in the western Neotropics. Taxa tolerant to seasonal drought are disproportionally widespread across the precipitation gradient, with most reaching even the wettest climates sampled; however, most taxa analysed are restricted to wet areas. Our results suggest that the ‘dry tolerance' hypothesis has broad applicability in the world's most species-rich forests. In addition, the large number of species restricted to wetter conditions strongly indicates that an increased frequency of drought could severely threaten biodiversity in this region. Overall, this study establishes a baseline for exploring how tropical forest tree composition may change in response to current and future environmental changes in this region. © 2016 The Authors

International audience; Globally, the Indian Ocean appears to have the greatest blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus ssp) acoustic diversity, with at least four acoustic populations from three defined sub-species. To understand how these different populations use this region as habitat, we first need to characterize their spatial and seasonal distributions. Here, we build on previous passive acoustic monitoring studies and analyze a passive acoustic dataset spanning large temporal (9 years) and spatial (3–9 sites covering more than 12 million km2 of potential acoustic habitat in the southwest Indian Ocean) scales. A novel detection algorithm was employed to investigate the long-term presence of Antarctic blue whale and SEIO and SWIO pygmy blue whale calls. We found that Antarctic and pygmy blue whales have completely different spatial and seasonal distribution in the southern Indian Ocean. Antarctic blue whales are heard almost year-round on the whole array, with great inter-annual variability. The two pygmy blue whales share a highly stable seasonal acoustic presence, but their geographical distributions overlap at only a few central Indian Ocean sites. However, Antarctic and pygmy blue whale acoustic co-occurrence is common, especially in sub-tropical waters. These temporal and spatial distributions strengthen our understanding of seasonal occurrence and habitat use of distinct populations of blue whales in the southern Indian Ocean. A better comprehension of the ecology of Indian Ocean blue whales will require interdisciplinary studies to examine the drivers of the variability seen from passive acoustic studies.

The authors explores the interdependence between demographic changes and transport network centrality, using Saint Petersburg as an example. The article describes the demographic data for the period 2002—2015 and the transportation network data of 2006. The authors employ several methods of demographic research; they identified the centre of gravity of the population, produce the standard deviational ellipsis and use the kernel density estimation. The street network centrality of Saint Petersburg was analyzed using the Multiple Centrality Assessment Model (MCA) and the Urban Network Analysis Tool for ArcGIS. The analysis of the population distribution in Saint Petersburg shows that each area of the city has seen their population grow over the last thirteen years. However, it is the population of suburban areas that increased the most. The core area of the city has the tendency of outward diffusion, and the population gravity centre has been moving northwards. Spatial characteristics of the population growth, changes in the population gravity centre, the standard deviational ellipse and characteristics of the street network centrality show that Saint Petersburg is at the final stage of urbanization and its development pattern is similar to that of other major cities.

Children under the age of five constitute around 7% of the total U.S. population, and represent a segment of the population that is totally dependent on others for day-to-day activities. A significant proportion of this population spends time in some form of day care arrangement while their parents are away from home. Accounting for those children during emergencies is of high priority, which requires a broad understanding of the locations of such day care centers. As concentrations of at risk population, the spatial location of day care centers is critical for any type of emergency preparedness and response (EPR). However, until recently, the U.S. emergency preparedness and response community did not have access to a comprehensive spatial database of day care centers at the national scale. This paper describes an approach for the development of the first comprehensive spatial database of day care center locations throughout the U.S. utilizing a variety of data harvesting techniques to integrate information from widely disparate data sources followed by geolocating for spatial precision. In the context of disaster management, such spatially refined demographic databases hold tremendous potential for improving high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models and databases.

This paper assesses the relation between access to markets and cultivated land in Sub-Saharan Africa. Making use of a geo-referenced panel over three decades (1970-2005) during which the road network was significantly improved, the analysis finds a modest but significant positive association between increased market accessibility and local cropland expansion. It also finds that cropland expansion, in turn, is associated with a small but significant increase in local gross domestic product. These results are suggestive of agricultural activities that develop at the extensive margin, which are mostly to serve local demand, but are not indicative of commercial agriculture that serves external markets.

Whereas there has been an extended discussion concerning city population distribution, little has been said about that of administrative divisions. In this work, we investigate the population distribution of second-level administrative units of 150 countries and territories and propose the discrete generalized beta distribution (DGBD) rank-size function to describe the data. After testing the balance between the goodness of fit and number of parameters of this function compared with a power law, which is the most common model for city population, the DGBD is a good statistical model for 96% of our datasets and preferred over a power law in almost every case. Moreover, the DGBD is preferred over a power law for fitting country population data, which can be seen as the zeroth-level administrative unit. We present a computational toy model to simulate the formation of administrative divisions in one dimension and give numerical evidence that the DGBD arises from a particular case of this model. This model, along with the fitting of the DGBD, proves adequate in reproducing and describing local unit evolution and its effect on the population distribution.

The increase and spread of population between regions always have an impact on settlements, whereby settlements require a land while land in a city has many activities, and it is limited. This limited potential settlement lands greatly influence the direction of the population in finding a place to settle. This study aims to study on potential settlement land in Semarang City. The methods used are quantitative descriptive and spatial descriptive that consist of settlement land suitability analysis (overlaying and weighting), potential settlement land analysis (buffering, overlaying and weighting), population growth analysis, settlement carrying capacity analysis, and distribution of population analysis. The results showed that the most available sub-district of potential settlement land is Mijen Subdistrict, and the total potential land area in Semarang City is 7,006 Ha. The results of the potential land are the destination for the direction of population distribution for sub-districts that do not have potential settlement land. Among others, are spread in West Semarang District, Tugu District, Ngaliyan District, Mijen District, Gunung Pati District, Tembalang District, and Pedurungan District.

Summary Eleonora's Falcon is a long-distance migrant of the Palearctic region. In recent years, the advent of satellite telemetry has enabled a more detailed investigation of the species's migratory and wintering periods. In this study, we model the distribution pattern of four Eleonora's Falcons originating from Greece within their wintering grounds in Madagascar with the use of satellite telemetry data and a niche-based technique, Maxent. The model predicted few highly suitable areas for the occurrence of the species, restricted to elevated areas receiving large amounts of precipitation during the wintering period, containing patches of primary and degraded humid submontane forests as well as cultivation. Most of these areas occurred within the previously estimated home ranges of the four falcons, as well as of three falcons from another independent study. Taking into account the ongoing alterations in landscape structure that occur within the eastern rainforest region of Madagascar, we believe that it is imperative to better understand the ecological requirements of Eleonora's Falcon. To this end, we recommend the application of Maxent in the study of habitat selection of the species that could be further refined with the inclusion of biotic interactions and seasonal resource availability. © BirdLife International 2013. 24 100 113 Cited By :6

Brazil reported the majority of the dengue cases in Americas during the last two decades, where the occurrence of human dengue cases is exclusively attributed to the Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Linnaeus). Nowadays, other recognized Dengue virus (DENV) vector in Asian countries, Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse), has been detected in more than half of the 5565 Brazilian municipalities. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to investigate the presence of, and determine the Ae. albopictus’ dynamics influenced by spatiotemporal characteristics in a dengue-endemic risk city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State’s capital. Aedes albopictus were collected across four consecutive DENV transmission seasons from 2010 to 2014. These mosquitoes were caught in three selected districts, which had been reported in the previous ten years as having high mosquito densities and an elevated concentration of human dengue cases during epidemic seasons. All field-caught Ae. albopictus was individually processed by real-time RT-PCR, to research the DENV presence. The third season (p

Patterns of epilithic diatom species distribution in relation to environmental variables from 12 sampling sites on the main stream and some of its tributaries in the Nilufer Stream Basin were determined using multivariate statistical techniques. The stream basin has been heavily influenced by anthropogenic effects. The upper part of the basin that is distant from pollution sources mostly has a spring water quality, while the lower part where the stream flows through the urban area and receives domestic and industrial wastewater has a quite low quality. Ordination techniques using both diatom taxa and 21 environmental variables revealed non-to slightly polluted upper basin sites and highly polluted lower basin sites along the stream. The results showed that the stream catchment is polluted gradually from upstream to downstream and that most of the downstream sites have very low water quality especially in summer months. A total of 134 epilithic diatom taxa belonging to 50 genera were recorded for 12 sample sites. Partial CCA results indicated that water temperature (T), discharge (Q), and total phosphorus (TP) were the most important variables affecting the distribution of diatom species. Unpolluted or slightly polluted upper basin sites were dominated by Achnanthidium minutissimum, Cocconeis placentula var. euglypta, Gomphonema olivaceum, and Navicula tripunctata. Highly polluted lower basin sites were characterized by high levels of organic and inorganic matters and low dissolved oxygen (DO) values. Species widespread in the highly polluted lower basin sites such as Nitzschia umbonata, Nitzschia amphibia, Nitzschia capitellata, Nitzschia palea, Nitzschia paleacea, Luticola mutica, and Stephanodiscus niagarae were mostly related to pollution indicator variables such as ammonium nitrogen (NH4(+)-N), sodium (Na+), total phosphorus (TP), and total organic matter (TOM).

Analizar los patrones espaciales de la migración peruana en la Ciudad de Córdoba, Argentina y comparar la población nacida en Perú que se encuentra agrupada en clústers con aquella dispersa en la ciudad. Se utilizaron técnicas de estadística espacial y análisis sociodemográfico. En la primera fase se usaron medidas globales de autocorrelación espacial (índice global de Moran) y medidas locales de agrupación espacial para representar clústers de población (Gi* de Getis Ord). En la segunda fase se realiza un análisis sociodemográfico de los clústers de población agrupada y dispersa. Resultados:se sugiere la interacción de dos procesos. En primer lugar, la concentración en zonas específicas de la ciudad de migrantes peruanos en patrones que no son aleatorios. Migrantes más antiguos se encuentran principalmente dispersos en la ciudad mientras migrantes más recientes se encuentran concentrados. En segundo lugar, los migrantes peruanos hombres dispersos tienen una mayor diversificación en cuanto a la estructura ocupacional y una mejor posición socioeconómica que los agrupados. Los patrones observados sugieren que existen diferenciales de género en estos procesos. Las mujeres, tanto las que se encuentran dispersas como las agrupadas, presentan una situación socioeconómica más precaria que los hombres. Esa situación es transversal a la dispersión/concentración en el espacio urbano. Conclusiones:se sugiere que las composiciones de clase, género y la temporalidad de los flujos migratorios articulan las modalidades de incorporación a la sociedad de destino. To analyze the spatial patterns of Peruvian migration in the city of Cordoba, Argentina and to compare the Peruvian migrants in clusters with Peruvian migrants scattered in the city. Spatial statistical techniques and socio-demographic analysis are used for this analysis. In the first phase, global measures of spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran Index) and local measures of spatial clustering represent clusters of population (Getis-Ord Gi*). In the second phase, a sociodemographic analysis of population in clusters and population dispersed is carried out. Results:we suggest there are two entangled processes. First, the concentration in specific areas of the city of Peruvian migrants in patterns that are not random. Older migrants are mainly dispersed in the city while more recent migrants are concentrated. Second, dispersed Peruvian men have greater diversification in terms of occupational structure and better socioeconomic status than Peruvian migrants dispersed. Women both dispersed and in clusters have a more precarious economic situation than men. This situation is transversal to the dispersion / concentration in urban space. It is suggested that the composition of class, gender and temporality of migration flows articulate the modalities of incorporation in the society of destination. Fil: Gómez, Pablo Martín Sebastian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Cultura y Sociedad. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Cultura y Sociedad; Argentina Fil: Sánchez Soria, David. Asociación Ecuatoriana de Estudios de Población; Ecuador

Eleonora's Falcon breeds colonially on small islands of the Mediterranean Sea and Macaronesia. Despite the wealth of papers highlighting the importance of nesting characteristics on this species' breeding performance, few have addressed the issue of nest-site selection explicitly. In this paper, we develop presence-absence and presencepseudoabsence models to predict nest occurrence as a function of the topography of the nesting territory. Nest occurrence data were available for nine uninhabited islets of the Aegean Sea, within which the majority of the global population of Eleanora's Falcon is encountered. Our findings suggest that the presence of conspecifics together with certain topographic features according to the surface area of the islet being studied can be used to predict nest occurrence on uninhabited islets of the Aegean Sea. We conclude that predictive models characterized by flexibility and/or the use of absence data that also consider nest clustering can result in robust predictions of the nest occurrence of Eleonora's Falcons in Greek breeding colonies and eventually facilitate future monitoring schemes. Since this is the first time nest-site preferences of Eleonora's Falcon have been analyzed using species distribution models, we encourage the application of similar methodologies to other areas within the species' breeding range to further validate our findings. © Dt. Ornithologen-Gesellschaft e.V. 2011. 153 663 675 Cited By :5

Population is one of the core elements of sustainable development. Quantifying the estimation accuracy of population spatial distribution has been recognized as a critical and challenging task. This study aims to evaluate the data accuracy of four population datasets in China, including three global gridded population datasets, the Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Global Rural and Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP), and WorldPop project (WorldPop), and a Chinese regional gridded population dataset, the China 1 km Gridded Population (CnPop) dataset. These datasets are assessed using a specific method based on a GIS-linked 2000 census dataset at the township level in China. The results indicate that WorldPop had the highest estimation accuracy, estimating about 60% of the total population. CnPop accurately estimated about half of the total population, showing a good mapping performance. The GPW had an acceptable estimation accuracy in a few plain and basin areas, accounting for about 30% of the total population. Compared to the GPW, GRUMP accurately estimated about 40% of the total population. The relative estimation error analysis discovered the disadvantages of the generation strategies of these datasets. The conclusions are expected to serve as a quality reference for potential dataset users and producers, and promote accuracy assessment for population datasets in other regions and globally.

I present the first published observations of the Giant Hummingbird (Patagona gigas) in the mountains of central Argentina. This species was recorded in early and late summer 2006 and 2007. This new range resembles other summer habitats of the species, which are in the Andes >500 km distant. A climatic envelope model configured with known locations obtained from the literature predicts a high probability of occurrence in its "new" range. I present the first published observations of the Giant Hummingbird (Patagona gigas) in the mountains of central Argentina. This species was recorded in early and late summer 2006 and 2007. This new range resembles other summer habitats of the species, which are in the Andes >500 km distant. A climatic envelope model configured with known locations obtained from the literature predicts a high probability of occurrence in its “new” range.

The effects of global glaciations on the distribution of organisms is an essential element of many diversification models. However, the empirical evidence supporting this idea is mixed, in particular with respect to explaining tropical forest evolution. In the present study, we evaluated the impacts of range shifts associated with Pleistocene global glacial cycles on the evolution of tropical forests. In particular, we tested the predictions: (1) that population genetic structure increases with fragmentation variation between the present and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and also (2) with geographical range instability; and (3) that genetic diversity increases with range stability and (4) decreases with fragmentation variation between periods. To address our predictions, we studied population genetic structures and modelled present and past distributions of 15 Atlantic Forest (AF) endemic birds. Afterwards, we evaluated the relationship of population genetic parameters with metrics of species range shifts between the present and the LGM. We found that geographical ranges of AF birds changed in concert with Pleistocene glacial cycles but, unexpectedly, our findings suggest the novel idea that ranges during glacial maxima were slightly larger on average, as well as equally fragmented and displaced from the interglacial ranges. Our findings suggest that range shifts over the late Pleistocene impacted on the diversification of forest organisms, although they did not show that those range shifts had a strong effect. We found that a combination of fragmentation variation across time, small current range size, and range stability increased population genetic structure. However, neither fragmentation, nor range stability affected genetic diversity. Our study showed that evolutionary responses to range shifts across AF birds have a high variance, which could explain the mixed support given by single-species studies to the action of Pleistocene range shifts on population evolution. Fil: Cabanne, Gustavo Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales "Bernardino Rivadavia"; Argentina Fil: Calderón, Pablo Luciano Sebastian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales "Bernardino Rivadavia"; Argentina Fil: Trujillo Arias, Natalia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales "Bernardino Rivadavia"; Argentina Fil: Flores, Pamela. Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento; Argentina Fil: Pessoa, Rodrigo. Universidade Estadual de Montes Claros; Brasil Fil: d'Horta, Fernando M.. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia; Brasil Fil: Miyaki, Cristina Y.. Universidade de Sao Paulo; Brasil

The advent of geolocated information and communication technologies opens the possibility of exploring how people use space in cities, bringing an important new tool for urban scientists and planners, especially for regions where data are scarce or not available. Here we apply a functional network approach to determine land use patterns from mobile phone records. The versatility of the method allows us to run a systematic comparison between Spanish cities of various sizes. The method detects four major land use types that correspond to different temporal patterns. The proportion of these types, their spatial organization and scaling show a strong similarity between all cities that breaks down at a very local scale, where land use mixing is specific to each urban area. Finally, we introduce a model inspired by Schelling's segregation, able to explain and reproduce these results with simple interaction rules between different land uses., Partial financial support was received from the Spanish Ministry of Economy (MINECO) and FEDER (EU) under project INTENSE@COSYP (FIS2012-30634), and from the EU Commission through projects LASAGNE and INSIGHT. The work of M.L. was funded under the PD/004/2013 project, from the Conselleria de Educación, Cultura y Universidades of the Government of the Balearic Islands and from the European Social Fund through the Balearic Islands ESF operational programme for 2013–2017. J.J.R. acknowledges funding from the Ramón y Cajal program of MINECO.

Objectives: We sought to analyze all cases of nasopharyngeal carcinomas (NPC) in Oman to determine the most common clinical presentation, whether it is associated with certain tribes in Oman, and its distribution in different regions of the country. We also looked at the histopathological diagnosis, treatment modality, recurrence, and metastasis. Methods: This retrospective chart analysis was performed using the data of all patients with NPC who presented to the Al Nahdha Hospital (the main tertiary hospital of head and neck surgery in Oman) from January 2003 until August 2011. Results: Twenty-six cases of NPC were included in the final study population. Muscat (the capital city of Oman) had the highest number of cases followed by the Ash Sharqiyah, Al-Batinah, and Dhofar regions. The largest number of cases were found in the Al-Balushi tribe. Cases had a bimodal distribution within two age groups (20–30 years and 50–60 years). Follow-up ranged between six months and seven years. Conclusion: Neck mass and nasal symptoms were the most common presentations of NPC in Oman. Further studies, with a larger sample size are required in order to support our results.

The spatial prediction and simulation of point values from areal data are addressed within the general geostatistical framework of change of support (the term support referring to the domain informed by each measurement or unknown value). It is shown that the geostatistical framework (i) can explicitly and consistently account for the support differences between the available areal data and the sought-after point predictions, (ii) yields coherent (mass-preserving or pycnophylactic) predictions, and (iii) provides a measure of reliability (standard error) associated with each prediction. In the case of stochastic simulation, alternative point-support simulated realizations of a spatial attribute reproduce (i) a point-support histogram (Gaussian in this work), (ii) a point-support semivariogram model (possibly including anisotropic nested structures), and (iii) when upscaled, the available areal data. Such point-support-simulated realizations can be used in a Monte Carlo framework to assess the uncertainty in spatially distributed model outputs operating at a fine spatial resolution because of uncertain input parameters inferred from coarser spatial resolution data. Alternatively, such simulated realizations can be used in a model-based hypothesis-testing context to approximate the sampling distribution of, say, the correlation coefficient between two spatial data sets, when one is available at a point support and the other at an areal support. A case study using synthetic data illustrates the application of the proposed methodology in a remote sensing context, whereby areal data are available on a regular pixel support. It is demonstrated that point-support (sub-pixel scale) predictions and simulated realizations can be readily obtained, and that such predictions and realizations are consistent with the available information at the coarser (pixel-level) spatial resolution. © 2005 The Ohio State University.

The spatial prediction of point values from areal data of the same attribute is addressed within the general geostatistical framework of change of support; the term support refers to the domain informed by each datum or unknown value. It is demonstrated that the proposed geostatistical framework can explicitly and consistently account for the support differences between the available areal data and the sought-after point predictions. In particular, it is proved that appropriate modeling of all area-to-area and area-to-point covariances required by the geostatistical framework yields coherent (mass-preserving or pycnophylactic) predictions. In other words, the areal average (or areal total) of point predictions within any arbitrary area informed by an areal-average (or areal-total) datum is equal to that particular datum. In addition, the proposed geostatistical framework offers the unique advantage of providing a measure of the reliability (standard error) of each point prediction. It is also demonstrated that several existing approaches for area-to-point interpolation can be viewed within this geostatistical framework. More precisely, it is shown that (i) the choropleth map case corresponds to the geostatistical solution under the assumption of spatial independence at the point support level; (ii) several forms of kernel smoothing can be regarded as alternative (albeit sometimas incoherent) implementations of the geostatistical approach; and (iii) Tobler's smooth pycnophylactic interpolation, on a quasi-infinite domain without non-negativity constraints, corresponds to the geostatistical solution when the semivariogram model adopted at the point support level is identified to the free-space Green's functions (linear in 1-D or logarithmic in 2-D) of Poisson's partial differential equation. In lieu of a formal case study, several 1-D examples are given to illustrate pertinent concepts.

The accurate estimation of the dynamic changes in population is a key component in effective urban planning and emergency management. We developed a model to estimate hourly dynamic changes in population at the community level based on subway smart card data. The hourly population of each community in six central districts of Beijing was calculated, followed by a study of the spatiotemporal patterns and diurnal dynamic changes of population and an exploration of the main sources and sinks of the observed human mobility. The maximum daytime population of the six central districts of Beijing was approximately 0.7 million larger than the night-time population. The administrative and commercial districts of Dongcheng and Xicheng had high values of population ratio of day to night of 1.35 and 1.22, respectively, whereas Shijingshan, a residential district, had the lowest value of 0.84. Areas with a high population ratio were mainly concentrated in Dongcheng, Xicheng, West Chaoyang, and Southeast Haidian. The daytime population distribution showed a hierarchical spatial pattern of planar centers and second scattered centers as opposed to multiple scattered centers during the night-time. This was because most people moved inward from the areas with a low–high to high–low population ratio of day to night from night-time to daytime, which can be explained by the process of commuting between residential areas and workplaces. Several distinctive phenomena (e.g., the distribution of new industrial parks, the so-called old residential areas, and colleges and universities) in the development of China are reflected by the spatiotemporal pattern of the distribution of population. The general consistency of the population ratios of day to night, population distribution, population variation of typical communities, and population mobility pattern with previous research suggests that the subway smart card data has potential in analyzing dynamic diurnal variations of urban population. This method can be easily duplicated to calculate hourly dynamic changes in population at the community level. These results can be used to estimate the potential hourly number of evacuees under different temporal scenarios of disasters and to support future urban planning in Beijing.

International audience; During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography.

The potential benefit of fish oil (omega-3 fatty acids) consumption to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remains controversial. Some investigations report reduced CVD risk associated with fish or fish oil consumption while others report no benefit. This controversy is in part resolved when consideration is given to omega-3 blood levels in relation to CVD risk as well as blood levels achieved in clinical trials of omega-3 supplementation and CVD benefit. There is a wide variation in omega-3 blood levels achieved between individuals in response to a given dose of an omega-3 supplement. Many studies tested a daily dose of 1 gram omega-3 supplementation. The individual variation in blood omega-3 levels achieved in response to a fixed daily dose helps to explain why some individuals may obtain CVD protection benefit while others do not due to failure to achieve a therapeutic threshold. Recent development of a population range in a United States population helps to provide clinical guidance since population omega-3 blood level ranges may vary due to environmental and genetic reasons. Omega-3 supplementation may also be of benefit in reducing the adverse impact of air pollution on CVD risk.

url: http://iconarp.selcuk.edu.tr/iconarp/article/view/107, In this paper, Hansen model applied to Istanbul districts and increasing the distribution of the population of 3 million were calculated. Istanbul, population and income growth, the service sector, based in the city's development as a result of advances in transportation and telecommunications, the restructuring of the city, and this encourages residential, commercial and office create opportunities for investments. Land-use decision-making process is a very complex includes site selection. Estimates of population growth, starting from the development potential on the one hand, depending on the location of the settlements, and the physical, socio-economic, legal and political characteristics of the functional needs of the city overlaps with each other to create the most effective form is required. In addition, the sub-centers produced a gradual effect of the interaction and the environment as a result of a lot of alternatives for the purpose of evaluating the size of the new centers and, instead, may be decided taking into account the dimension of time. Thus, the development of the whole city and the economic development of the system to provide the most effective when planned. By investing just as it is today, at certain points, and the creation of high-quality urban services bringing the speculation, raising the quality of life of city-wide, but can provide a healthy socio-economic development.

Population Growth and Distribution in China. In opposition with the majority of developing countries, China went through a steady population growth for several centuries, the country finally entering the phase of demographic transition less than fifty years ago. The author of this article attemps to show that the most obvious result of such an evolution has been the gradual filling up of the Chinese agricultural space by a dense peasant population, especially vulnerable to malthusian crises. Population growth was much higher in peripheral regions, whereas the transition towards an urbanized industrial society just started., A la différence de ce qui s'est passé dans d'autres pays du tiers-monde, la croissance de la population chinoise a débuté voici plusieurs siècles, la phase finale de la transition démographique n'intervenant que dans la seconde moitié du XXe siècle. La présente étude cherche à montrer que cette évolution multiséculaire a eu pour résultat l'occupation progressive de l'espace agricole par une paysannerie dense, très sensible aux crises malthusiennes. L'expansion a affecté en priorité les régions périphériques et la transition vers une société industrielle urbanisée est tout juste amorcée., Cartier Michel. Croissance démographique et répartition de la population chinoise: 1880-1990. In: Espace, populations, sociétés, 1995-2. Les populations d'Asie orientale. pp. 209-217.