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In a model with multiple Pareto-ranked equilibria we add trade in assets that pay based on the realization of a sunspot. Asset trading restricts the equilibrium set in a way that raises welfare by eliminating equilibria with a high likelihood of disasters. When the probability of a disaster is high enough, the coordination game becomes like a prisoner’s dilemma situation in which the high-output equilibrium disappears because the portfolios that agents choose induce them to produce less. We derive an upper bound on the disaster probability, we derive asset pricing implications including the disaster premium, and we study the effect on stock prices of news shocks to beliefs.

A safe asset’s real value is insulated from shocks, including declines in GDP from rare macroeconomic disasters. However, in a Lucas-tree world, the aggregate risk is given by the process for GDP and cannot be altered by the creation of safe assets. Therefore, in the equilibrium of a representative-agent version of this economy, the quantity of safe assets will be nil. With heterogeneity in coefficients of relative risk aversion, safe assets can take the form of private bond issues from low-risk-aversion to high-risk-aversion agents. The model assumes Epstein-Zin/Weil preferences with common values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the rate of time preference. The model achieves stationarity by allowing for random shifts in coefficients of relative risk aversion. We derive the equilibrium values of the ratio of safe to total assets, the shares of each agent in equity ownership and wealth, and the rates of return on safe and risky assets. In a baseline case, the steady-state risk-free rate is 1.0% per year, the unlevered equity premium is 4.2%, and the quantity of safe assets ranges up to 15% of economy-wide assets (comprising the capitalized value of GDP). A disaster shock leads to an extended period in which the share of wealth held by the low-risk-averse agent and the risk-free rate are low but rising, and the ratio of safe to total assets is high but falling. In the baseline model, Ricardian Equivalence holds in that added government bonds have no effect on rates of return and the net quantity of safe assets. Surprisingly, the crowding-out coefficient for private bonds with respect to public bonds is not 0 or -1 but around -0.5, a value found in some existing empirical studies.

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data- generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncer- tainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In sci- ence, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence- generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sam- ple. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.

Many financial instruments are designed with embedded leverage, such as options and leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Embedded leverage alleviates investors’ leverage constraints, and, therefore, we hypothesize that embedded leverage lowers required returns. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find empirically that options and leveraged ETFs provide significant amounts of embedded leverage; this embedded leverage increases return volatility in proportion to the embedded leverage; and higher embedded leverage is associated with lower risk-adjusted returns. The results are statistically and economically significant, and we provide extensive robustness tests and discuss the broader implications of embedded leverage for financial economics. (JEL G02, G11, G12, G13, G14, G20)

We model the term structure of interest rates that results from the interaction between investors with preferences for specific maturities and risk‐averse arbitrageurs. Shocks to the short rate are transmitted to long rates through arbitrageurs' carry trades. Arbitrageurs earn rents from transmitting the shocks through bond risk premia that relate positively to the slope of the term structure. When the short rate is the only risk factor, changes in investor demand have the same relative effect on interest rates across maturities regardless of the maturities where they originate. When investor demand is also stochastic, demand effects become more localized. A calibration indicates that long rates underreact to forward‐guidance announcements about short rates. Large‐scale asset purchases can be more effective in moving long rates, especially if they are concentrated at long maturities.

In this paper, we examine the pricing determinants in the systemically important tri-party repo market. Taking advantage of the recently available N-MFP reports filed by money market funds, we construct a novel dataset that contains tri-party repo transactions between money market funds and dealer banks. We find a large cross-sectional heterogeneity in repo pricing, reflected most significantly in the haircuts of repos backed by equity and corporate bonds. Surprisingly, it is the fund families, not bank dealers, who are the dominant factor in determining the pricing. Moreover, the repo market exhibits significant segmentation, with fund families adopting three different pricing schemes: counter-party sensitive, counter-party and collateral sensitive, and uniform. Most fund families use uniform haircuts by fixing a constant haircut, which itself varies across families, for all repos within each asset class, regardless of the quality of collateral or counter-party. Investigating further on the lending/borrowing relationship between fund families and dealers, we find that, when faced with such a rich pricing pattern, dealers do not shop around for a better haircut and are inclined to maintain a stable relationship with their lenders. Finally, for repos backed by Treasury securities, there is little variation in both haircuts and spreads, regardless of the fund family.

Housing market transactions are a matter of public record and thus provide a rare opportunity to analyze the behavior, performance, and strategies of individual investors. Using data for all housing transactions in the Los Angeles area from 1988-2009, this paper provides empirical evidence on investor behavior that is consistent with several rationales for speculative investment in the finance literature, including the roles of middlemen and naïve speculators. Speculative activity by novice investors increased sharply in the recent housing boom. These investors earned little more than the market rate of appreciation and demonstrated no ability to foresee market price movements.

Using comprehensive data on bank lending and establishment-level outcomes from 1997–2010, this paper finds that small business lending is an unimportant determinant of small business and overall economic activity. A shift-share style research design is implemented to predict county-level lending shocks using variation in preexisting bank market shares and bank supply shifts. Counties with negative predicted lending shocks experienced declines in small business loan originations, indicating that it is costly to switch lenders. However, small business loan originations have an economically insignificant and generally statistically insignificant impact on both small firm and overall employment during the Great Recession and normal times. (JEL E32, E44, E52, G21, G32, L25)

Heightened counterparty risk during the recent financial crisis has raised questions about the role clearinghouses play in global financial stability. Empirical identification of the effect of centralized clearing on counterparty risk is challenging because of the co-incidence of macro-economic turbulence and the introduction of clearinghouses. We overcome these concerns by examining a novel historical experiment, the establishment of a clearinghouse on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in 1892. During this period the largest NYSE stocks were also listed on the Consolidated Stock Exchange (CSE), which already had a clearinghouse. Using identical securities on the CSE as a control, we find that the introduction of clearing reduced annualized volatility of NYSE returns by 90-173bps and increased asset values. Prior to clearing, shocks to overnight lending rates reduced the value of stocks on the NYSE, relative to identical stocks on the CSE, but this was no longer true after the establishment of clearing. We also show that at least ½ of the average reduction in counterparty risk on the NYSE is driven by a reduction in contagion risk - the risk of a cascade of broker defaults. Our results indicate that clearing can cause a significant improvement in market stability and value through a reduction in network contagion and counterparty risk.

This paper provides a set of benchmark estimates of the private sector's income and price elasticities of demand for the asset market components of this class of AGE models calibrated for low-income developing economies. The results presented in this paper are based on the estimation of a cointegrated asset demand system for Kenya, where the private sector is assumed to hold its wealth in terms of five assets and one liability. The estimating model is based on the almost-ideal demand system developed by Deaton and Muellbauer (1980) and is estimated on quarterly data for the period from 1970 to 1990.

We analyze the individual and macroeconomic impacts of heterogeneous expectations and action rules within an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous, interacting firms. Agents have to cope with a complex evolving economy characterized by deep uncertainty resulting from technical change, imperfect information and coordination hurdles. In these circumstances, we find that neither individual nor macroeconomic dynamics improve when agents replace myopic expectations with less naïve learning rules. In fact, more sophisticated, e.g. recursive least squares (RLS) expectations produce less accurate individual forecasts and also considerably worsen the performance of the economy. Finally, we experiment with agents that adjust simply to technological shocks, and we show that individual and aggregate performances dramatically degrade. Our results suggest that fast and frugal robust heuristics are not a second-best option: rather they are “rational” in macroeconomic environments with heterogeneous, interacting agents and changing “fundamentals”.

We aim to make two contributions to the literature on the effects of transaction costs on financial price volatility. First, by using a research design with three ingredients (a common set of companies simultaneously listed on two stock exchanges; binding capital controls; different timing of changes in transaction costs), we obtain a control group that has identical corporate fundamentals as the treatment group and is therefore far cleaner than any in the existing literature. We apply the research design to Chinese stocks that are cross-listed in Hong Kong and Mainland. Second, we entertain the possibility that a given transaction cost can have different effects in immature and mature markets. In an immature market where trading is dominated by retail investors with little knowledge of accounting and finance, a Tobin tax should have the best chance of generating its intended effect. In a more mature market, higher transaction costs may also discourage sophisticated investors, hence impeding timely incorporation of fundamental information into prices. We find a significantly negative relation in the Chinese market, on average, between stamp duty increase and price volatility. However, this average effect masks some important heterogeneity. In particular, when institutional investors have become a significant part of traders' pool, we find an opposite effect. This suggests that a Tobin tax may work in an immature market but can backfire in a more developed market.

We present a novel empirical benchmark for analyzing credit risk using “pseudo firms” that purchase traded assets financed with equity and zero-coupon bonds. By no-arbitrage, pseudo bonds are equivalent to Treasuries minus put options on pseudo firm assets. Empirically, like corporate spreads, pseudo bond spreads are large, countercyclical, and predict lower economic growth. Using this framework, we find that bond market illiquidity, investors' overestimation of default risks, and corporate frictions do not seem to explain excessive observed credit spreads but, instead, a risk premium for tail and idiosyncratic asset risks is the primary determinant of corporate spreads. (JEL E23, E32, E44, G13, G24, G32)

International audience; This paper analyzes the business cycle behavior of the corporate debt structure and its interaction with economic recovery. The debt structure is measured as the share of bonds in the total credit to non-financial corporations for a quarterly panel of countries over the period 1989–2013. We first show that the substitution of loans for bonds in recoveries is a regular property of business cycles. Secondly, we provide evidence that economies with high bond share and important bond-loan substitution recover from the recessions faster. This identified link between corporate debt structure and business cycles is robust to the inclusion of traditional factors which shape recessions and recovery such as the size and the quality of financial markets, the occurrence of bank crisis, the dynamics of credit, and the distribution of firm size. © 2017 Elsevier B.V.

We suggest using "realized volatility" as a volatility proxy to aid in model-based multivariate bond yield density forecasting. To do so, we develop a general estimation approach to incorporate volatility proxy information into dynamic factor models with stochastic volatility. The resulting model parameter estimates are highly efficient, which one hopes would translate into superior predictive performance. We explore this conjecture in the context of density prediction of U.S. bond yields by incorporating realized volatility into a dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) model with stochastic volatility. The results clearly indicate that using realized volatility improves density forecasts relative to popular specifications in the DNS literature that neglect realized volatility.

This paper examines the relation between competitive pressure and financial constraints\ud using firm-level survey data from 27 emerging economies of Eastern Europe and Central\ud Asia for the years 2005 and 2009. In the empirical analysis, we disentangle the impact of\ud product market competition on the demand and supply of credit. Our results support the\ud hypothesis that competitive pressure on borrowers affects both sides of the credit market. We\ud find that in industries with greater competitive pressure firms’ demand for credit is typically\ud higher but a greater proportion of firms are discouraged from loan application due to greater\ud cost of credit. Interestingly, we find the detrimental effect of competitive pressure on credit\ud access breaks down when firms are audited, when they can pledge collateral and when they\ud engage in export activities. These results point to the role of competitive pressure in the\ud lenders’ information set when limited information is available

The long-run risks (LRR) asset pricing model emphasizes the role of low-frequency movements in expected growth and economic uncertainty, along with investor preferences for early resolution of uncertainty, as an important economic-channel that determines asset prices. In this paper, we estimate the LRR model. To accomplish this we develop a method that allows us to estimate models with recursive preferences, latent state variables, and time-aggregated data. Time-aggregation makes the decision interval of the agent an important parameter to estimate. We find that time-aggregation can significantly affect parameter estimates and statistical inference. Imposing the pricing restrictions and explicitly accounting for time-aggregation, we show that the estimated LRR model can account for the joint dynamics of aggregate consumption, asset cash flows and prices, including the equity premia, risk-free rate and volatility puzzles.

This contribution studies the role of the size of mutual funds in the evaluation of the fund performance with a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach, with the aim of studying the issue from different angles and with different statistical tools and investigating the presence of a positive or negative size effect in mutual funds market. Firstly, we discuss the role of fund size in the performance evaluation and wonder whether it is appropriate to include size information among the variables of DEA models. Secondly, we analyse the presence of a relationship between the performance scores and the size of mutual funds using different statistical tests and carry out an empirical investigation on a set of European equity mutual funds. Thirdly, we study scale efficiency and investigate whether the European mutual funds analysed exhibit constant, increasing or decreasing returns to scale.

Stock prices are more informative when the information has less social value. Speculators with limited resources making costly (private) information production decisions must decide to produce information about some firms and not others. We show that producing and trading on private information is most profitable in the stocks of firms with poor corporate governance -- precisely because it will not be acted upon -- and less profitable at firms with better corporate governance. To the extent that the information in the stock price is used for disciplining the CEO by the board of directors, the informed trader has a reduced incentive to produce the information in the first place. We test our model using the probability of informed trading (PIN) and the probability of forced CEO turnover in a simultaneous-equation system. The empirical results support the model predictions. Stock prices are efficient, but there is a limit to the disciplining role they can fulfill. We apply the model to evaluate the effects of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.

We extend Kyle's (1985) model of insider trading to the case where liquidity provided by noise traders follows a general stochastic process. Even though the level of noise trading volatility is observable, in equilibrium, measured price impact is stochastic. If noise trading volatility is mean-reverting, then the equilibrium price follows a multivariate 'stochastic bridge' process, which displays stochastic volatility. This is because insiders choose to optimally wait to trade more aggressively when noise trading activity is higher. In equilibrium, market makers anticipate this, and adjust prices accordingly. More private information is revealed when volatility is higher. In time series, insiders trade more aggressively, when measured price impact is lower. Therefore, execution costs to uninformed traders can be higher when price impact is lower.

We examine the public debt management problem with respect to the maturity mix of new issues in a mean-variance framework. After identifying the main determinants of the long-run target (strategy), we focus on which interest rate conditions allow for a temporary deviation (tactics). The study is partly motivated by the apparent ‘window of opportunity’ to issue more heavily at longer maturities given the recent historically low yields. We show that the room for long tactical positions on the long-term bond is actually narrower than predicted by rules of thumb based on Sharpe-like ratios. Once the model is augmented to embed real world features such as no price-taking and transaction costs, the scope for tactical position shrinks further. We discuss the model results and its implications in terms of the principal-agent dilemma (government vs. debt manager); the paper also explores the financial stability implications arising from public debt issuance choices. All in all, our findings provide a rationale for the degree of caution often shown by many public debt managers in fulfilling their mandate.

The basic paradigm of asset pricing is in vibrant flux. The purely rational approach is being subsumed by a broader approach based upon the psychology of investors. In this approach, security expected returns are determined by both risk and misvaluation. This survey sketches a framework for understanding decision biases, evaluates the a priori arguments and the capital market evidence bearing on the importance of investor psychology for security prices, and reviews recent models.Presentation slides: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3181614.

In this paper, we empirically investigate the impact of the credit risk of Eurozone member countries on the stability of the Euro. In the absence of a common euro bond, euro-area credit risk is induced though the credit default swaps of the member countries. The stability of the euro is examined by decomposing dollar-euro exchange rate options into the moments of the risk-neutral distribution. We document that during the sovereign debt crisis changes in the creditworthiness of member countries have significant impact on the stability of the euro. In particular, an increase in member countries’ credit risk results in an increase of volatility of the dollar-euro exchange rate along with soaring tail risk induced through the risk-neutral kurtosis. We find that member countries’ credit risk is a major determinant of the euro crash risk as measured by the risk-neutral skewness. We propose a new indicator for currency stability by combining the risk-neutral moments into an aggregated risk measure and show that our results are robust to this change in measure. Noticeable is the fact that during the sovereign debt crisis, the creditworthiness of countries with vulnerable fiscal positions is the main risk-endangering factor of the euro-stability.

This paper draws on network theory to investigate European banks’ sovereign debt exposures. Banks’ holdings of sovereign debt build a network of financial linkages with European countries that exhibits a long-tail distribution of node degrees. A highly connected network core of 15 banks is identified. These banks accounted for the majority of sovereign debt investments between December 2010 and December 2013 but exhibited only average and sometimes even below average capitalizations. Consequently, they constituted a potential source and transmission channel of systemic risk, especially due to their proneness to portfolio contagion. In a complementary regression analysis, the effect of counterparty risk on Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads of 15 EU sovereigns is investigated. Among the banks exposed to the debt of a particular issuer, the biggest institutions in terms of their own asset sizes are identified and some of their balance sheet characteristics included into the regression. The analysis finds that the banks’ implied volatilities had a significant and increasing effect on CDS spreads during the recent crisis years, providing evidence of the presence of counterparty risk and its effect on EU sovereign debt pricing. Furthermore, the role of the domestic financial sectors is assessed and found to have affected the CDS spreads.

Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account the Markov model for the state of the policyholder and, hereby, facilitating event risk.

Using data from England and Wales, we analyze the relationship between house prices and transaction volume (number of houses sold) and find that there is a negative relationship. When we decompose price changes into anticipated and unanticipated components we find that while anticipated house price changes positively affect transaction volume, unanticipated price changes have a negative effect. These findings give insights for the theories which try to explain the relationship between house prices and transaction volume. Our findings are inconsistent with the 'down-payment effect' approach developed by Stein (1995) and Ortalo-Magne and Rady (2006), and with the 'loss aversion behavior' approach discussed by Genesove and Mayer (2001). However, our results support the evidence of asymmetric decisions on the buyer and seller side documented in Case and Shiller (1988) and partially support the mechanisms in search and matching models.

This paper compares the “simplesum” monetary aggregates - M2) (M1 andpublished by the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) with the new monetary aggregates (D1 andD2)—known as the Divisia monetary indexes. The former aggregates are constructed from a simple accounting identity, whereas the Divisia aggregates are constructed using statistical index number theory and aggregation theory. The findings suggest that both D1 and M1 are identical, given the perfect substitutab ility of the monetary components within those aggregates. For the broader monetary aggregates where perfect substitutability assumption is not realistic, the two monetary indexes differ substantially. SAMA could benefit by using both monetary indexes simultaneously to better monitor liquidity in the market. Keywords: monetary aggregation; Divisia monetary aggregates; index number theory JEL Classifications: E41; E51; E52; E58 1. Introduction Simple-sum monetary aggregates (widely denoted by M1, M2, and M3) are commonly used by central banks worldwide. Those monetary indexes are derived from a simple accounting identity. The implicit assumption made when using simple -sum monetary aggregates is that all components are perfect

Insurance companies use conservative first order valuation bases to calculate insurance premiums and reserves. These valuation bases have a significant impact on the insurer’s solvency and on the premiums of the insurance products. Safety margins for systematic biometric and financial risk are in practice typically chosen as time-constant percentages on top of the best estimate transition intensities. We develop a risk-oriented method for the allocation of a total safety margin to the single safety margins at each point in time and each state. In a case study, we demonstrate the suitability of the proposed method in different frameworks. The results show that the traditional method yields an unwanted variability of the safety level with respect to time, whereas the variability can be significantly reduced by the new method. Furthermore, the case study supports the German 60 percent rule for the technical interest rate.

In this paper, we first provide an empirical evidence of the existence of intraday jumps in the crude oil price series. We then show that these jumps, in conjunction with realized volatility measures, are important in modeling the convenience yield over the 2001–2010 period. Our empirical results indicate that lagged jump mean only explains around 16% of the weekly convenience yield. Our best specification, including variation in inventories, 8-week realized variance and the 250-day jump mean is able to explain around 61% of the weekly convenience yield. Importantly, our results are not driven by the simultaneous determination of the various variables at work as we only use lagged variables in all regressions.

Over the course of February 2015, the MICEX Index continued to grow and hit its four-year record high of 1,809.6 points. The stock market’s capitalization index as of 25 February amounted to Rb 27.4 trillion (or 38.6% of GDP). As before, the situation in Russia’s domestic corporate bond market was unfavorable – mostly due to the eff ects of adverse external factors. The main negative feature of that market continued to be the high rate of weighted average effective yield on corporate bond issues, although it displayed a moderate downward trend (especially in the hi-tech sector). On the whole, the key indices of the Russian domestic corporate bond market, including the market volume and the market index, and the activity of the market’s biggest bond emitiers and investors, showed a positie trend. The emitiers were becoming less punctual in fulfi lling their obligations to their bond holders.

Studies on real estate economics neglected the relationship between hedonic prices and capitalization rate, thus considering the hedonic models and the income approach as two separate and alternative appraisal methods. In this short theoretical paper we show that integration is possible and relatively simple and the combined model allows to estimate the capitalization rate using only hedonic prices. Also, the developed model brings out a peculiarity of real estate asset, namely the negative relationship between economic life of the property and capitalization rate.

As countries of the world used large amounts of public funds to manage the 2008 financial crisis, public debt has risen to a critical level in many of them. Due to the drop in real economy, several countries faced unemployment and economic fallback that are still unresolved to this day. After the crisis, many were concerned how to restore the confidence in financial institutions and how banks can better contribute to sustainable social and economic growth. This paper discusses corporate social responsibility (CSR), an attitude putting ethical norms in the spotlight. The CSR pyramid distinguishes various layers of responsibilities. The first at the bottom is economic responsibility, serving as the foundation for the pyramid, however, companies also need to comply with legal norms. Ethical responsibility is the obligation to conduct in a fair way and to do the right thing. After the crisis, central banks in many countries became responsible for sustaining financial stability. To this end, central banks have developed their own corporate social responsibility strategies. This activity is studied from the view of how CSR can contribute to financial stability.

The Internet is now one of the most popular channels for investors to acquire investment related information. It raises a question: Will Internet information richness increases mutual fund investors’ perceived quality and decreases their perceived risk, which in turn influences investors’ perceived value and purchase intention? This paper investigate the relationships between Internet information richness, perceived quality, perceived risk, perceived value, and purchase intention through a questionnaire format. Results of his study can provide a reference for Internet information providers and mutual fund investors. Limitations and suggestions for future research are also provided.

The dynamics of the MICEX Index saw no drastic movements last month1, avaraging 1650 index points, with a 1.2% fall at month’s end. The rest of the MICEX Sector Indices, except the MICEX Telecommunications Index, de monstrated negative dynamics too. The MICEX daily average turnover kept shrinking and amounted to Rb 30.4bn. The situation in the Russian domestic corporate bond market in June was relatively normalized. The key market indicators such as the market volume and the corporate bond market index saw moderately positive dynamics; investors’ activity remained high in the primary and secondary markets (particularly in the fi nancial segment). Growth in the weighted average yield rate of bond issuances was an adverse trend. The problem with the failure to meet obligations to bondholders is still there.

Среднее значение индекса ММВБ в мае было на уровне 1679 пунктов, по итогам месяца его падение составило 1,5% относительно предшествующего периода. Основное негативное влияние на индекс оказало снижение цен на нефть. Средний дневной оборот биржи сократился почти на 20% по сравне- нию с первым кварталом 2015 г. и составил 31,3 млрд руб. На внутрироссийском рынке корпоратив- ных облигаций сложилась относительно благоприятная конъюнктура рынка, несмотря на неблаго- приятный внешний фон, сложную ситуацию в экономике и традиционный сезонный спад. Позитивной динамикой отличились такие ключевые показатели рынка, как объем и индекс рынка корпоративных облигаций, ставка средневзвешенной доходности эмиссий (особенно в технологичном сегменте), ак- тивность инвесторов на первичном и вторичном рынках. Несмотря на высокие финансовые риски в последние месяцы, крупным эмитентам удается успешно размещать долгосрочные займы. Сложной остается ситуация с исполнением эмитентами своих обязательств перед держателями облигаций.

In this study, the technical indicators are used in forecasting whether stock prices will rise, fall or will be constant at the following day. The indicators are generated by taking into account the daily stock returns. If the daily stock returns are positive, the indicator is coded as “+1”; if the daily stock returns are constant, the indicator is coded as “0” and at least if the daily stock returns are negative, the indicator is coded as “-1”. These indicator values express the dependent vari-able of ordered choice models which independent variables are technical indicators. The ordered choice models are ap-plied to all of the stocks of ISE (Istanbul Stock Exchange).

Dynamic asset pricing models built within the classic CARA-Normal framework usually assume myopic traders with one-period investment horizons or infinitely lived investors for tractability. I relax this myopic assumption and show the values of more finite trading opportunities are state-contingent and arise naturally as non-central $chi^2$-distributed. The moment generating function of the non-central $chi^2$ distribution thus can be utilized to derive the traders' first order conditions and preserve closed-form solutions. The model with non-myopic traders has a modified two-period overlapping generations(OLG) interpretation in which each young generation can have multiple investment opportunities.

The imposition of federal conservatorships on September 6, 2008, at the Federal National Mortgage Association and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation—commonly known as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—was one of the most dramatic events of the financial crisis. These two government-sponsored enterprises play a central role in the US housing finance system, and at the start of their conservatorships held or guaranteed about $5.2 trillion of home mortgage debt. The two firms were often cited as shining examples of public-private partnerships—that is, the harnessing of private capital to advance the social goal of expanding homeownership. But in reality, the hybrid structures of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were destined to fail at some point, owing to their singular exposure to residential real estate and moral hazard incentives emanating from the implicit guarantee of their liabilities. We describe the financial distress experienced by the two firms, the events that led the federal government to take dramatic action in an effort to stabilize housing and financial markets, and the various resolution options available to US policymakers at the time; and we evaluate the success of the choice of conservatorship in terms of its effects on financial markets and financial stability, on mortgage supply, and on the financial position of the two firms themselves. Conservatorship achieved its key short-run goals of stabilizing mortgage markets and promoting financial stability during a period of extreme stress. However, conservatorship was intended to be a temporary fix, not a long-term solution, and more than six years later, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac still remain in conservatorship.

The MICEX Index skyrocketed in January 2015, gaining 16.44% in the period between the 5th and 26th of January. The Index hit its highest 1671.8 points on the 23th of January. At the sametime, the crude oil Brent futures price dropped to 48,1 US dollars a barrel in the same month. The stock market capitalization by the 26th of January amounted to Rb 25,6 trillion (36.1% of GDP) (Rb 22,3 trillion as of the 19th of December last year). Both the accelerati ng dynamics of average weighted bond yield, tending towards deceleration though, and the deteriorated investment environment in the secondary market remained the key downtrend factors in the corporate bond market in January. The volume and the index of the corporate bond market saw positive dynamics while bond issuers and investors were highly active in the primary market. The situation with issuers’ failure to discharge their obligations to bondholders saw some worsening early in the year.

This paper uses the data from Casablanca Stock Exchange to document whether the value relevance of ownership structure changed as the market conditions changed. We show that the performance (average returns, Sharpe ratios, Sortino ratios, information ratios and CAPM alpha) of portfolios comprising of firms with concentrated ownership structure deteriorate significantly during the post-crisis period – the period characterized by lack luster market conditions. We show relatively poor performance of these portfolios relative to portfolios comprising of firms with dispersed ownership structure during the post-crisis period. We argue that lack luster performance of the Casablanca Stock Exchange during the post-crisis period, increased the incentives for controlling shareholders to expropriate. Investors recognized these incentives and discounted firms that were more likely to expropriate.

This article assesses the ability of flexible dynamic correlation specifications to improve asset allocation decisions. To that end, we use the recently proposed Rotated Dynamic Conditional Correlation (RDCC) model that enables the estimation of models with high degree of parameterization and large number of assets. We also extend the RDCC model to incorporate 'rotated' realized correlation measures which exploit the information content of intra-day data. The empirical evidence, based on ten US equities and three years of out-of-sample forecasting (2007-2009), support the use of flexible diagonal RDCC specifications for portfolio management purposes. However, simpler scalar specifications enhanced with realized correlation measures can produce superior or in some cases similar results. Overall, our findings give evidence in favor of inter-daily flexible RDCC models for asset allocation purposes when the computation of realized correlation measures is practically unfeasible.

This paper explores the relationship between financial reforms, financial liberalization and the quality of banking regulation and supervision for financial fragility by applying a dynamic two-step system generalized method of moments GMM panel estimator technique. The finding of this study is that the financial vulnerability of the banking sector could be affected, not only by bank-specific and macro-specific variables, but also by financial liberalization and banking regulations and supervision policies. The empirical results of this study confirm the evidence that financial reforms and financial liberalization significantly enhance the likelihood of financial fragility while strong banking regulations and supervision have an inverse relationship with financial fragility. The results of this study also explain that the lag value of loan growth and unemployment contribute to enhancing financial fragility while equity to assets ratio, natural log of total assets and share of foreign banks reduce financial vulnerability.

Being active in both the insurance sector and the banking sector, financial conglomerates intrinsically increase the interconnections between the banking sector and the insurance sector. We address two main concerns about financial conglomerates using a unique database on bilateral exposures between 21 French financial institutions. First, we investigate to what extent to which the insurers that are part of financial conglomerates differ from pure insurers. Second, we show that in the presence of sovereign risk, the components of a financial conglomerate are better off than if they were distinct entities. Our empirical findings bring a new perspective to the previous results of the literature based on using different types of data.

In this paper, we examine the price discovery process and volatility spillover effects in informationally linked futures markets. Using synchronous trading information from the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and the London Metal Exchange (LME) for copper futures from 2000 to 2012, we show that the cointegration relationships of these futures markets changed during 2006¨C2008. The results indicate that there is a bidirectional relationship in terms of price and volatility spillovers between the LME and NYMEX and the SHFE, with a stronger effect from the LME and NYMEX to the SHFE (versus the effect from the SHFE to the LME and NYMEX) prior to 2006. Our results also highlight the increasingly prominent role of the SHFE in the price formation process and cross-volatility spillover effects since 2008. Finally, we show that volatility spillover has important implications for constructing optimized portfolios for copper investors.

Gender differences in risk-taking and investment decisions have been widely documented in the financial markets. Utilizing trading information from individual investor brokerage accounts, this paper explores the effects of aging on gender differences in terms of portfolio turnover and returns. We document that male investors trade more frequently than female investors and yield lower portfolio returns, but these gender differences attenuate substantially with age. Our study suggests that gender differences documented by experiments or surveys with young participants might not be generalized across age groups.

The MICEX index fell to 1413.8 points by the 17th of December, following the fi ve-year highs early in December. It is only VTB’s shares that demonstrated growth among highly liquid shares during the same month. The stock market capitalization as of the 19th of December amounted to Rb 22,3 trillion (34.4% of GDP). The domestic corporate bond market in December saw a downtrend induced by both external and internal trends. Rapid growth in the average weighted bond yield, as well as decrease in the market index and investing activities in the secondary market (especially in the production sector) became the key adverse factors in the market. The situation with bond issuers being able to fulfi ll their fi nancial obligations before bondholders remained tense and made a certain contribution to the growth in bond yields.

После достижения в начале декабря пятилетнего Maksimума индекс ММВБ к 17 декабря снизился до 1413,8 пунктов. В течение месяца среди высоколиквидных акций только акции «ВТБ» демонстри- ровали рост стоимости. Капитализация фондового рынка на 19 декабря составила 22,3 трлн руб. (34,4% ВВП). На внутрироссийском рынке корпоративных облигаций в декабре сохранялась неблагопри- ятная конъюнктура по причинам как внешнего, так и внутреннего характера. Основными негатив- ными явлениями на рынке стали резкий рост средневзвешенной доходности эмиссий, а также сниже- ние индекса рынка и инвестиционной активности на вторичном рынке (особенно в производственном секторе). Ситуация с исполнением эмитентами своих обязательств перед держателями облигаций оставалась напряженной и внесла определенный вклад в рост доходностей.

In many Western countries, local community sport clubs are important providers of leisure, sport, and social programs. These sport clubs are nonprofit organizations, which operate in an increasingly challenging environment. This study considers a club’s direct local environment, i.e., the community the club is located in. The open systems model and the resource dependence represent the theoretical framework. The purpose of this research is to examine the effect of the financial and economic environment in the community on the resource situation of sport clubs (human, infrastructure, and financial resources). The empirical evaluation is undertaken using data from a nationwide survey of non-profit sport clubs in Germany (organizational level, n = 19,345), which are combined with secondary data on community characteristics (community level, n = 3153). Given the hierarchical data structure, multi-level analyses are applied. The results show that volunteer problems are smaller among clubs in communities with high unemployment. Facility and financial problems are greater in large communities. Sport clubs located in communities that could break even were also more likely to break even themselves. The findings show that resource problems are not necessarily due to poor club management, since higher-level (community) factors significantly affect the resource situation of sport clubs too.

In this paper, we develop the modified maximum likelihood (MML) estimators for the multiple regression coefficients in linear model with the underlying distribution assumed to be symmetric, one of Student's t family. We obtain the closed form of the estimators and derive their asymptotic properties. In addition, we demonstrate that the MML estimators are more appropriate to estimate the parameters in the Capital Asset Pricing Model by comparing its performance with that of least squares estimators (LSE) on the monthly returns of US portfolios. Our empirical study reveals that the MML estimators are more efficient than the LSE in terms of relative efficiency of one-step-ahead forecast mean square error for small samples.

We investigate the effects of different regulatory policies directed towards high-frequency trading (HFT) through an agent-based model of a limit order book able to generate flash crashes as the result of the interactions between low- and high-frequency (HF) traders. We analyze the impact of the imposition of minimum resting times, of circuit breakers (both ex-post and ex-ante types), of cancellation fees and of transaction taxes on asset price volatility and on the occurrence and duration of flash crashes. In the model, low- frequency agents adopt trading rules based on chronological time and can switch between fundamentalist and chartist strategies. In contrast, high-frequency traders activation is event-driven and depends on price fluctuations. In addition, high-frequency traders employ low-latency directional strategies that exploit market information and they can cancel their orders depending on expected profits. Monte-Carlo simulations reveal that reducing HF order cancellation, via minimum resting times or cancellation fees, or discouraging HFT via financial transaction taxes, reduces market volatility and the frequency of flash crashes. However, these policies also imply a longer duration of flash crashes. Furthermore, the introduction of an ex-ante circuit breaker markedly reduces price volatility and removes flash crashes. In contrast, ex-post circuit breakers do not affect market volatility and they increase the duration of flash crashes. Our results show that HFT-targeted policies face a trade-off between market stability and resilience. Policies that reduce volatility and the incidence of flash crashes also imply a reduced ability of the market to quickly recover from a crash. The dual role of HFT, as both a cause of the flash crash and a fundamental actor in the post-crash recovery underlies the above trade-off.