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This study was conducted by considering the excessive depreciation of the TL in the last quarter of 2021 and Turkey's external dependence in terms of energy. The study shows the relationship between Dollar, Euro, Gold, and Covid-19 cases of AKSEN, ENERJISA, ZOREN, NATEN, and AKSUE shares, which have an increasing trend in BIST100 in the energy market, is analyzed. In the study, the stability levels of the variables were determined with the ADF (Extended Vertical Fuller) and Phillips – Perron Unit Root Tests, the Johansen Cointegration Test was used to determine the long-term relationship between the variables, and the Granger Causality tests VECM and UVAR were used to determine the short-term relationship between the variables. As a result of the study, it is understood that NATEN, ZOREN, and AKSEN stocks do not have a long-term relationship with the variables discussed, while ENJSA and AKSUE stocks have a long-term relationship with the variables. As a result of the Granger Causality tests, it has been determined that there are short-term relationships. The causality analysis made only for AKSEN stock determined that there was no short-term relationship., Bu çalışma, 2021 ‘in son çeyreğinde TL’nin aşırı değer kaybı ve Türkiye'nin enerji bakımından dışa bağlı oluşu dikkate alınarak yapılmıştır. Çalışmada enerji piyasasındaki BIST100’de artış trendine sahip AKSEN, ENERJİSA, ZOREN, NATEN ve AKSUE hisselerinin Dolar, Euro, Altın ve Covıd-19 vaka sayısı arasındaki ilişki analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmada ADF (Genişletilmiş Dikey Fuller) ve Phillips – Perron Birim Kök Testleri ile değişkenlerin durağanlık seviyeleri belirlenmiştir, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkinin tespiti için Johansen Eşbütünleşme Testi ve değişkenler arasında kısa dönemli ilişkinin tespiti için de Granger Nedensellik testlerinden VECM ve UVAR kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucunda NATEN, ZOREN ve AKSEN hisse senetlerinin ele alınan değişkenlerle arasında uzun dönem ilişkisinin olmadığı ENJSA ve AKSUE hisse senetlerinin ise değişkenlerle arasında uzun dönemli ilişkinin olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. Yapılan Granger Nedensellik testleri sonucunda kısa dönemli ilişkilerin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Sadece AKSEN hisse senedi için yapılan nedensellik analizinde kısa dönemli bir ilişkinin olmadığı saptanmıştır.

The surprisingly limited literature investigating whether there exists a long-run association between trade liberalization and income inequality finds strong evidence for it. We point out a possible model misspecification due to ignoring the presence of cross-section dependence. Using a panel of 15 EU countries in the 1985–2017 period we show that there is strong evidence for the presence of cross-section dependence. Therefore, we use so-called second-generation procedures (which are robust to cross-section dependence) and find no evidence that trade liberalization and income inequality share a long-run cointegrating relationship in the European Union. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.

We test Fisher hypothesis in 14 inflation targeting emerging countries by quantile co-integration approach allowing asymmetric behaviour of long-run co-integration relationship. While conventional co-integration methods do not support Fisher hypothesis for any country, quantile co-integration approach confirms Fisher hypothesis in nine countries with time-varying behaviour of Fisher coefficient. Our results thereby can shed light on Fisher puzzle in inflation targeting emerging markets and provide insightful implications. The findings suggest that inflation targeting in emerging markets would lead to an asymmetric adjustment, implying heterogeneous effects of negative and positive shocks. Monetary authorities, in particular, tend to increase short-term interest rates by a larger amount during high inflation period than low inflation period. © 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

This paper investigates the impact of the Government's capital and current expenditures on economic growth in Azerbaijan. The estimation strategy of the research consists of two directions. First, all estimation approaches were used for the period of 2005Q1-2019Q4. The estimated model for this period is called Model 1. Second, the model which is called Model 2 was estimated for whole period of 2005Q12021Q1. This approach allows comparing the role of the Government expenditures on non-oil economic activity in normal times and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Azerbaijan. Estimations show that coefficients characterizing the impact of Government current expenditures and capital expenditures on non-oil economic growth are almost the same for both periods. Therefore, we can state that COVID-19 pandemic did not affect the structure of the relationship between Government expenditures and non-oil economic growth. Results show that 1 percent increase in capital and current expenditures of state budget increases the real non-oil GDP by 0.10 and 0.40 percentage points, respectively. Accordingly, both capital and current expenditures of the state budget have positive impact on the real non-oil GDP growth for the both periods. This is in contrast to findings in the literature, which argue that increasing current expenditures financed by tax hikes lead to a lagged decrease in private investment, having an overall negative impact on economic growth. We attribute this opposing finding to the Azerbaijani state budget revenue system, which is financed by transfers from the State Oil Fund (Stabilization Fund). Thus, large government investment and social projects mostly rely on non-tax sources. Therefore, we argue that positive impact of capital and current expenditures of government budget on non-oil GDP seems plausible for Azerbaijan. Another result of our estimation is that expansion of economic openness accompanied by non-oil economic growth plunge in Azerbaijan. We interpret this phenomenon with very low share of non-oil export, where openness is mostly caused by increase in import volume.

Ekonomilerde faiz oranı ve döviz kuru makroekonomik istikrar açısından iki önemli unsur olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bu sebeple döviz kuru ve faiz oranı arasındaki etkileşimin ekonomi politikalarının düzenlemesinde dikkate alınması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de 2003-2020 döneminde döviz kuru ve faiz oranı arasındaki nedensellik ve eşbütünleşme ilişkisi incelenmiş ve uzun dönemde karşılıklı ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Interest rate and exchange rate stand out as two important factors in terms of macroeconomic stability in economies. For this reason, the interaction between exchange rate and interest rate should be taken into account in the regulation of economic policies. In this study the causality and cointegration relationship between exchange rate and interest rate in Turkey for 2003-2020 period are examined and mutual relationship in the long term is identified.

Education has a vital role in improving youth employment. Increasing youth unemployment rates and the high share of the unemployed educated young population indicate that the labor market cannot create good job opportunities. This study analyzes the relationship between youth unemployment and education in countries with a high level of youth unemployment but having different characteristics: Turkey and Spain. The analysis was conducted using Johansen Cointegration tests. The results indicate no unidirectional causal relationship from enrollment in higher education towards youth unemployment rate in Turkey and Spain. Besides, it has been observed that the increase in the higher education schooling rate does not decrease youth unemployment. The results showing the relationship between youth unemployment and education will be crucial in designing policies to improve job markets for youth.

The tourism sector has emerged as an essential driver for economic growth strategies during the last decades. An asymmetric long-run effect of air transport on economic growth is validated assuming a process of social globalization in Spain between 1970 and 2015. To achieve the study’s objective, the recent asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag methodology framework advanced by Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014) is applied. For determining the causality direction, this methodology is applied in conjunction with the non-parametric causality test proposed by Diks and Panchenko (2006). The current study also accounts for the effects of renewable energy use and urbanization process over economic growth. Empirical results showed that air transport, urbanization process and social globalization exert positive and significant implications over economic growth, while renewable energy use reduces economic growth, as a consequence of an energy mix sustained by fossil sources. Based on these outcomes several policy recommendations were offered in the concluding section.

The analysis of innovation systems is a demanding task, which needs to be tackled comprehensively. Their modelling provides an indication of the formal innovative performance while the narrative analysis helps to examine relevant judgments about the rules and institutions that are key to the development of innovations. The study of the complementarity and non-complementarity of the conclusions obtained using both approaches is likely to contribute to a deeper understanding of the Russian innovation system functioning. The paper aims to analyse how the content and spread of the national innovation system narratives are interrelated with the modelling of the Russian innovation system and the most important indicators of its functioning. Methodologically, the research takes advantage of the methodological synthesis of narrative economics and original institutionalism. The research methods include narrative analysis, cointegration analysis of mutual influence between narratives and innovation indicators. The authors identify peculiar features of innovation systems’ modelling, analyse the texts, stories and other sources containing narratives about the Russian innovation system development, and based on this discover the relationship between the spread of certain narratives (the frequencies of word groups “innovative technologies”, “technology development”, “innovation activities”, “technology implementation”, “scientific schools”, “innovation policy”, “science and technology”) and innovation indicators (share of innovative goods, works, services in the total volume of goods shipped, works performed, services provided; share of expenditure on innovation activities in the total volume of goods shipped, works performed, services provided). The analysis also shows cointegration between the frequency of search queries “use of patents” and innovation indicators “number of patent application” and “number of patents issued”. The authors point to a number of limitations related to the innovation system modelling. There are some typical limitations such as availability and reliability of statistical data, methodological heterogeneity of statistics, model specification, etc., as well as some specific ones including a broad, ambiguous definition of the national innovation system, differences in the approaches to defining principal determinants, innovations immeasurability, considerations of the system connections and economies of scale, etc. Thus, the findings confirm the need for a narrative study in order to achieve an in-depth understanding of complex economic processes.

We carry out a (partial) replication exercise of Chang and Lee (2015) unit root and cointegration analyses of crude oil spot and futures prices. In doing so, we offer an updated and expanded analysis based on a much wider set of oil futures series than that considered by Chang and Lee, and we consider the impact of different temporal aggregation methods. Although we are not able to exactly replicate their findings, we nonetheless reach qualitatively similar findings to theirs when using their dataset in terms of the long-run properties and interactions of the spot and futures prices data. Likewise, qualitatively comparable results are obtained when using our expanded dataset. However, a number of important qualitative differences from Chang and Lee arise in terms of the analysis of causality between spot and futures contract prices. As part of our replication exercise we also investigate some aspects that were not originally considered by Chang and Lee. In doing this, we find that both the variability of futures prices as well as the speed of adjustment of futures/spot price differentials increase as the maturity of the contracts increase. © 2017 Elsevier B.V.

This paper investigates how oil’s future price implies the bunker price through cointegration analysis first. A cointegration test confirms the long-run equilibrium condition of bunker and oil future prices. Based on the cointegration relationship, we construct VECM model to forecast bunker prices. In addition, we also consider ARMA, ARMAX, and VAR models for certifying whether considering the long-run equilibrium between bunker and oil future prices is helpful in prediction. One-step-ahead and four-step-ahead forecasting are considered and two out-of-sample datasets are used. The empirical results show that the increase in the value of the error correction term in the VECM model has the effect of pulling down the bunker return. VECM performs better than other models in prediction. The Crude Oil Future Contract 1 has better forecasting performance for bunker prices with VECM in the 1-step-ahead forecast, while Crude Oil Future Contract 3 performs slightly better than Crude Oil Future Contract 1 in the 4-step-ahead forecast.

This paper focuses on import and export of goods of the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic is very open country in European Union. Ratio of import and export of goods and services to GDP is above European Union average. The goal is to find explanatory variables, which have an influence on import and export of goods and to build robust and economically interpretable models. Models are created by cointegration analysis. The advantage of cointegration analysis and error correction models is avoiding spurious regression and differentiation of short-term and long-term relations. There will be used ARDL approach for building models.

This paper studies the long-run relationship between income inequality and economic growth in Uruguay, a high income Latin American country. Cointegration techniques are applied by using nonparametric tests and data for the period 1986 to 2014. Linearity of the relationship is tested previously to the estimation of the functional of the relationship between these variables which shows a negative linear long-run relationship between real GDP growth and inequality is obtained. To test causality, the procedure suggested by Holmes and Hutton (1990) is performed. The results find that causality is unidirectional and the effect goes from economic growth to inequality. When the test is performed in differences, significant effects can be identified in both directions. A shock (an unexpected rise or decrease) on the variation of inequality cause effects on growth variation. It follows that in the short-run inequality may affect growth, but not in the long-run, implying that the effect in this direction is transitory Este trabajo estudia la relación a largo plazo entre la desigualdad de ingresos y el crecimiento económico en Uruguay, un país latinoamericano de altos ingresos. Con este fin, se aplican técnicas de cointegración mediante el uso de test y datos no paramétricos para el período de 1986 a 2014. La linealidad de la relación se prueba previamente a la estimación de la función que relaciona estas variables, la cual muestra que se obtiene una relación lineal negativa de largo plazo entre el crecimiento del PIB real y la desigualdad. Para probar la causalidad, se realiza el procedimiento sugerido por Holmes y Hutton (1990). Los resultados encuentran que la causalidad es unidireccional y el efecto va del crecimiento económico a la desigualdad. Cuando la prueba se realiza en diferencias, se pueden identificar efectos significativos en ambas direcciones. Un shock (un aumento o disminución inesperados) en la variación de la desigualdad causa efectos en la variación del crecimiento. Se sigue que, en el corto plazo, la desigualdad puede afectar el crecimiento, pero no a largo plazo, lo que implica que el efecto en esta dirección es transitorio

This study explores the bicausality between institutional quality and FDI inflow both aggregated and sector-wise, i.e., the agricultural, manufacturing, and tertiary sectors in the Indian economy, by applying simulated autoregressive distributed lag (SARDL) dynamic new techniques, an extended variant of orthodox ARDL and NARDL. The study confirms that aggregated and sectorial FDI are enhanced by adequate institutional quality, and similarly, FDI promotes quality institutions. The nexus between institutional quality and FDI inflow is an inspiration for India to compete with developed economies by enhancing its institutional quality. The study observes cointegration and bidirectional causality between institutional quality and aggregated FDI. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. We are very thankful to the Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, for technical support.

The impact of exchange rate changes in small open economies has been a widely researched topic for decades. According to economic theory and relevant research, depreciation can have a positive impact on the economy through an increase in exports, and a negative effect through decrease in an individual consumption. The aim of this article is to assess the impact of exchange rate depreciation on external debt in Croatia in the long-run. The long-run impact of depreciation on external debt in Croatia is assessed using Johansen cointegration approach. The results point to the existence of one cointegration relation. The long-run impact of exchange rate depreciation on external debt in Croatia is statistically significant and positive, what is in line with previous research and economic theory. The conducted analysis outlines the possible negative impact of depreciation on Croatian economy through the increase of external indebtedness, what could consequently decrease the wealth of all sectors indebted in foreign currency. Since Croatia is a highly euroised small open economy with high external indebtedness in foreign currency, this research provides captivating results for monetary and fiscal policy-making in Croatia. Therefore, as a result of the conducted empirical analysis, the exchange rate depreciation in Croatia is not recommended as the instrument of increasing export competitiveness due to current high external indebtedness in foreign currency.

This study investigates the integration of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) equity indices with conventional indices in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) individually and across all BRICS countries to better understand regional economic cooperation. Accordingly, we look at daily returns from 13 July 2013 to 28 February 2018 for the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) ESG indices and MSCI composite indices of the respective countries. To analyze the integration between the ESG equity indices of the sampled countries with their regional and across regional conventional counterparts, the Johansen Co-integration test is employed in this study. Further, the vector error correction model (VECM) is applied to test the causality between the sampled time-series. The impulse response function analysis further explains the impulse responses of each country&rsquo, s MSCI ESG returns to one standard deviation of innovations to MSCI composite returns of the same country and across countries. Finally, the extent of the MSCI composite returns&rsquo, impact on the MSCI ESG returns in the same country indices, and cross-regional indices is examined with variance decomposition analysis. The results suggest that all ESG equity indices are integrated with conventional indices in all BRICS countries. Furthermore, there is a short-or long-run causality between MSCI ESG and MSCI composite equity indices of China and South Africa. Moreover, the study finds only short-run causality between conventional and non-conventional equity indices of Brazil and Russia, whereas we find only long-run causality between India&rsquo, s non-conventional and conventional equity indices. Finally, the study finds that the all-individual country MSCI ESG equity indices shows a long-run causality with MSCI composite equity indices of all other BRICS countries. The findings also confirm the economic and financial cooperation between the BRICS countries.

El presente trabajo se centra en identificar los factores determinantes del transporte aéreo de pasajeros, con especial referencia al papel que juegan las variables turísticas en este contexto. Utilizando datos del tráfico de flujos de pasajeros de los principales aeropuertos del área de influencia del Mediterráneo español, se estima un modelo de datos de panel para los años 2004-2015. Los factores explicativos incluyen aspectos relativos al desarrollo del mercado turístico en el territorio donde se localiza cada aeropuerto, variables de actividad económica, y otras propias de la especialización de cada aeropuerto, como la existencia de operadores de bajo coste (low-cost). El estudio utiliza técnicas de cointegración para controlar por la presencia de raíces unitarias en las series del modelo. Los resultados permiten observar la relevancia de las variables turísticas en la generación de servicios aeroportuarios., This paper seeks to identify the factors driving air transport services, with special emphasis on the role played by tourism-related variables. Using data on flows of passengers arriving to airports in the Spanish Mediterranean region, we employ panel data regressions for the period 2004-2015. Explanatory factors in the model include variables reflecting the state of development of the tourism market, the size of the local economic activity, and the presence of low-cost carriers. Cointegration techniques are applied in order to control for the presence of unit roots in variables of the model. Main results show the relevance of tourism activities in explaining air transport passenger services in this area.

The primary cause of recent Russian economic downturn is the decline in global oil prices, which led to the currency crisis in Russia. However, other factors, which might have considerable effects on ruble exchange rate, are overlooked – for example changes in gold and gas prices, Russian interest rates, development of stock market and last but not least development of the USD exchange rate itself. A close relationship among these variables may be suspected. The purpose of this article is to discover this relationship and determine the impact of these variables on changes in the ruble exchange rate with the aid of cointegration analysis. It has been found out that besides the decline of the oil price, also decline of gold price, rise of stock market, increase in interest rates and appreciation of USD played a significant role in depreciation of ruble.

This paper investigates the determinants of new vehicle registrations in European Union (EU) countries by focusing on four particular segments - passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, commercial vehicles, and heavy commercial vehicles. A panel cointegration analysis for a panel of 13 EU countries during the period from January 1999 to August 2010 shows that new vehicle sales have long-run cointegration relations with vehicle prices, consumer confidence, income, interest rates, fuel prices, industrial production, and trade. More effective factors in determining new vehicle sales appear to be trade, interest rates, and industrial production. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Negli ultimi anni i modelli VAR sono diventati il principale strumento econometrico per verificare se può esistere una relazione tra le variabili e per valutare gli effetti delle politiche economiche. Questa tesi studia tre diversi approcci di identificazione a partire dai modelli VAR in forma ridotta (tra cui periodo di campionamento, set di variabili endogene, termini deterministici). Usiamo nel caso di modelli VAR il test di Causalità di Granger per verificare la capacità di una variabile di prevedere un altra, nel caso di cointegrazione usiamo modelli VECM per stimare congiuntamente i coefficienti di lungo periodo ed i coefficienti di breve periodo e nel caso di piccoli set di dati e problemi di overfitting usiamo modelli VAR bayesiani con funzioni di risposta di impulso e decomposizione della varianza, per analizzare l'effetto degli shock sulle variabili macroeconomiche. A tale scopo, gli studi empirici sono effettuati utilizzando serie storiche di dati specifici e formulando diverse ipotesi. Sono stati utilizzati tre modelli VAR: in primis per studiare le decisioni di politica monetaria e discriminare tra le varie teorie post-keynesiane sulla politica monetaria ed in particolare sulla cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015) e regola del GDP nominale in Area Euro (paper 1); secondo per estendere l'evidenza dell'ipotesi di endogeneità della moneta valutando gli effetti della cartolarizzazione delle banche sul meccanismo di trasmissione della politica monetaria negli Stati Uniti (paper 2); terzo per valutare gli effetti dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria in Italia in termini di implicazioni di politiche economiche (paper 3). La tesi è introdotta dal capitolo 1 in cui si delinea il contesto, la motivazione e lo scopo di questa ricerca, mentre la struttura e la sintesi, così come i principali risultati, sono descritti nei rimanenti capitoli. Nel capitolo 2 sono esaminati, utilizzando un modello VAR in differenze prime con dati trimestrali della zona Euro, se le decisioni in materia di politica monetaria possono essere interpretate in termini di una "regola di politica monetaria", con specifico riferimento alla cosiddetta "nominal GDP targeting rule" (McCallum 1988 Hall e Mankiw 1994; Woodford 2012). I risultati evidenziano una relazione causale che va dallo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo alle variazioni dei tassi di interesse di mercato a tre mesi. La stessa analisi non sembra confermare l'esistenza di una relazione causale significativa inversa dalla variazione del tasso di interesse di mercato allo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo. Risultati simili sono stati ottenuti sostituendo il tasso di interesse di mercato con il tasso di interesse di rifinanziamento della BCE. Questa conferma di una sola delle due direzioni di causalità non supporta un'interpretazione della politica monetaria basata sulla nominal GDP targeting rule e dà adito a dubbi in termini più generali per l'applicabilità della regola di Taylor e tutte le regole convenzionali della politica monetaria per il caso in questione. I risultati appaiono invece essere più in linea con altri approcci possibili, come quelli basati su alcune analisi post-keynesiane e marxiste della teoria monetaria e più in particolare la cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015). Queste linee di ricerca contestano la tesi semplicistica che l'ambito della politica monetaria consiste nella stabilizzazione dell'inflazione, del PIL reale o del reddito nominale intorno ad un livello "naturale equilibrio". Piuttosto, essi suggeriscono che le banche centrali in realtà seguono uno scopo più complesso, che è il regolamento del sistema finanziario, con particolare riferimento ai rapporti tra creditori e debitori e la relativa solvibilità delle unità economiche. Il capitolo 3 analizza l’offerta di prestiti considerando l’endogeneità della moneta derivante dall'attività di cartolarizzazione delle banche nel corso del periodo 1999-2012. Anche se gran parte della letteratura indaga sulla endogenità dell'offerta di moneta, questo approccio è stato adottato raramente per indagare la endogeneità della moneta nel breve e lungo termine con uno studio degli Stati Uniti durante le due crisi principali: scoppio della bolla dot-com (1998-1999) e la crisi dei mutui sub-prime (2008-2009). In particolare, si considerano gli effetti dell'innovazione finanziaria sul canale dei prestiti utilizzando la serie dei prestiti aggiustata per la cartolarizzazione al fine di verificare se il sistema bancario americano è stimolato a ricercare fonti più economiche di finanziamento come la cartolarizzazione, in caso di politica monetaria restrittiva (Altunbas et al., 2009). L'analisi si basa sull'aggregato monetario M1 ed M2. Utilizzando modelli VECM, esaminiamo una relazione di lungo periodo tra le variabili in livello e valutiamo gli effetti dell’offerta di moneta analizzando quanto la politica monetaria influisce sulle deviazioni di breve periodo dalla relazione di lungo periodo. I risultati mostrano che la cartolarizzazione influenza l'impatto dei prestiti su M1 ed M2. Ciò implica che l'offerta di moneta è endogena confermando l'approccio strutturalista ed evidenziando che gli agenti economici sono motivati ad aumentare la cartolarizzazione per una preventiva copertura contro shock di politica monetaria. Il capitolo 4 indaga il rapporto tra spesa pro capite sanitaria, PIL pro capite, indice di vecchiaia ed aspettativa di vita in Italia nel periodo 1990-2013, utilizzando i modelli VAR bayesiani e dati annuali estratti dalla banca dati OCSE ed Eurostat. Le funzioni di risposta d'impulso e la scomposizione della varianza evidenziano una relazione positiva: dal PIL pro capite alla spesa pro capite sanitaria, dalla speranza di vita alla spesa sanitaria, e dall'indice di invecchiamento alla spesa pro capite sanitaria. L'impatto dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria è più significativo rispetto alle altre variabili. Nel complesso, i nostri risultati suggeriscono che le disabilità strettamente connesse all'invecchiamento possono essere il driver principale della spesa sanitaria nel breve-medio periodo. Una buona gestione della sanità contribuisce a migliorare il benessere del paziente, senza aumentare la spesa sanitaria totale. Tuttavia, le politiche che migliorano lo stato di salute delle persone anziane potrebbe essere necessarie per una più bassa domanda pro capite dei servizi sanitari e sociali. In recent years vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become the main econometric tool to test if may exist a relationship between variables and to assess the effects of policy. This thesis studies three different identification approaches starting from reduced-form VAR models (including sample period, set of endogenous variables, deterministic terms and lag length). We use in the case of VAR models Granger Causality test to verify the ability of one variable to predict another one, in the case of cointegrating relationship we use VECM models to jointly estimate long-run and short-run coefficients from data and in the case of small dataset and problem of overfitting we use Bayesian VAR models with impulse response functions and variance decomposition to analyze the effect of shocks on the macroeconomic variables. For this, the empirical studies are carried out using specific datasets and different assumptions. The three VAR models approaches have been used: first to study decisions on monetary policy for discriminating among Post-Keynesian analyses of monetary theory and policy and more specifically the so-called “solvency rule” (Brancaccio and Fontana 2013, 2015) and nominal GDP targeting rule in the Euro Area (paper 1); second to extend the evidence of endogenous money hypothesis by evaluating the effects of banks’ securitization on monetary transmission mechanism in the United States (paper 2); third to evaluate the effects of ageing on health care expenditure in Italy in terms of policy implications (paper 3). The thesis is introduced in Chapter 1, which outlines the context, motivation and aim of this research. Furthermore the structure and a summary of the approach as well as the main findings of the remaining chapters are described. Chapter 2 examines by using a VAR model in first differences with quarterly data of Eurozone whether decisions on monetary policy can be interpreted in terms of a “monetary policy rule” with specific reference to the so-called “nominal GDP targeting rule” (McCallum 1988; Hall and Mankiw 1994; Woodford 2012). The results indicate a causal relation proceeding from deviation between the growth rates of nominal GDP and target GDP to variation in three month market interest rate. The same analysis do not, however, appear to confirm the existence of a significant inverse causal relation from variation in the market interest rate to deviation between the nominal and target GDP growth rates. Similar results were obtained on replacing the market interest rate with ECB refinancing interest rate. This confirmation of only one of the two directions of causality does not support an interpretation of monetary policy based on the nominal GDP targeting rule and gives rise to doubt in more general terms as to the applicability of the Taylor rule and all of the conventional rules of monetary policy to the case in question. The results appear, instead to be more in line with other possible approaches, such as those based on some Post-Keynesian and Marxist analyses of monetary theory and policy and more specifically the so-called “solvency rule” (Brancaccio and Fontana 2013, 2015). These lines of research challenge the simplistic argument that the scope of monetary policy consists in the stabilization of inflation, real GDP or nominal income around a “natural equilibrium” level. Rather, they suggest that central banks actually follow a more complex purpose, which is the political regulation of financial system with particular reference to the relations between creditors and debtors and the related solvency of economic units. Chapter 3 analyzes loans supply by explicitly accounting for the money endogeneity arising from securitization bank’s activity over the period 1999-2012. Although there is a large body of literature that investigates the endogeneity of money supply this approach has rarely been adopted to investigate money endogeneity in a short-term and long term study of the United States during the two main crises: the dot-com bubble burst (1998-1999) and the sub-prime mortgage crisis (2008-2009). Specifically, we consider the effects of financial innovation on lending channel by using the loans series adjusted for securitization to investigate whether the American banking system is incentive to seek the cheapest sources of financing as securitization, which affects its response to restrictive monetary policy (Altunbas et al., 2009). The analysis is based on the aggregate M1 and M2. In the study period the Federal Reserve uses M1, M2 money supply as its monetary target. Employing VECM models, we examine a long-run relationship among level variables and evaluate the effects of money supply by measuring how much the monetary policy stance affects short-run deviations from long-run relationship. The results show that securitization influences the impact of loans on M1 and M2. This implies money supply endogeneity in favor of structuralist approach and motivates agents to increase securitization with a preemptive motive to hedge against policy shocks. Chapter 4 investigates the relationship between per capita health care expenditure, per capita GDP, aging index and life expectancy in Italy over the period 1990-2013 by employing Bayesian VAR models and annual data drawn from OECD and EUROSTAT database. The impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis find evidence of a positive relationship from per capita GDP to per capita health care expenditure, from life expectancy to per capita health care expenditure and from aging index to per capita health care expenditure. The impact of ageing on health expenditure is significant and stronger than the other variables. Overall, our findings suggest that disabilities closely associated with ageing may be the main driver of health expenditure in the short medium-run. A good health care management contributes to improve patient welfare without increasing total health expenditure. However, policies that improve health status of the elderly might be necessary for a lower per capita demands on health and social services.

This paper uses the methods of co-integration analysis and Granger Causality test, analyses the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth of Hebei Province from 1980 to 2008. The empirical results show that there is a stable causal relation between TEC and GDP in the long run. Hebei's economic growth contributes to energy consumption growth. To change economic development mode and save energy, reduction of pollutant emission will not only impact the economic growth, but also achieve energy-saving, emission reduction and sustainable development.

Cataloged from PDF version of article. This study examines the long-run relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption, income and foreign trade in the case of China by employing time series data of 1975–2005. In particular the study aims at testing whether environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between CO2 emissions and per capita real GDP holds in the long run or not. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology is employed for empirical analysis. A quadratic relationship between income and CO2 emission has been found for the sample period, supporting EKC relationship. The results of Granger causality tests indicate one way causality runs through economic growth to CO2 emissions. The results of this study also indicate that the carbon emissions are mainly determined by income and energy consumption in the long run. Trade has a positive but statistically insignificant impact on CO2 emissions. & 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

This paper uses Johansen's cointegration methodology to estimate Sierra Leone's money long run demand function for the 1964-2005 period. It finds a stable long-run relationship between the quantity of real money balances and its determinants. Secondly, all the estimated coefficients have their expected signs. Additionally, as expected in economies with under-developed financial systems, Sierra Leone's long-run money demand function is unit income-elastic and interest-rate inelastic. Thus, the study provides support for the neoclassical money demand specification. Additionally, it reaffirms the central findings of Kallon (1992).

Empirical tests typically provide evidence that the British pound-US dollar exchange rate and the relative wholesale price index contain exact unit roots and exhibit cointegration. However, the cointegrating vector is significantly different from [1, -1], thus raising doubts on the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. Following Elliott (1998 ), we show that if the exchange rate and relative price series contain near-to-unit roots in the context of a bivariate system, then any inference on the "cointegrating" vector and consequently on PPP, which is based on standard cointegration estimation methods, will be misleading. We then argue that the existing evidence against the PPP hypothesis in the British pound - US dollar market can be attributed to the finite sample bias of the standard cointegration estimators, arising from an endogenous and "nearly" nonstationary regressor. We also show that when robust procedures are employed the evidence favors the PPP hypothesis. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 17 144 155 144-155

Monetary growth in the euro area has exceeded its target since several years. At the same time, the money demand function seems to be increasingly unstable if more recent data are used. If the link between money balances and the macroeconomy is fragile, the rationale of monetary aggregates in the ECB strategy has to be doubted. In fact, a rise in the income elasticity after 2001 can be observed, and may reflect the exclusion of real and financial wealth in conventional specifications of money demand. This presumption is explored by means of a cointegration analysis. To separate income from wealth effects, the specification in terms of money velocity is preferred. Evidence for the presence of wealth in the long run relationship is provided. In particular, both stock and house prices have exerted a negative impact on velocity after 2001 and lead to almost identical equilibrium errors. The extended error correction model is stable over the entire sample period and survive a battery of specification tests. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10663-008-9092-1. This publication was produced as part of the FINESS project, funded by the European Commission through the 7th Framework Programme under contract no. 217266 (http://www.finess-web.eu/).

Recent econometric studies did not find evidence in favour of a stable long run money demand function. If the link between money balances and the macroeconomy is fragile, the rationale of monetary aggregates in the ECB strategy has to be doubted. In contrast to the bulk of the literature, we are able to identify a stable long run standard money demand relationship. The corresponding error correction model is robust to a number of specification tests. This result can be obtained when the role of the inflation rate in money demand is properly acknowledged. Ökonometrische Studien weisen zunehmend auf Instabilitäten in der Geldnachfrage hin. Ein solcher Befund stellt die monetäre Strategie der EZB in Frage, die wesentlich auf einer stabilen Beziehung zwischen den Geldbeständen und ökonomischen Fundamentalvariablen beruht. In diesem Artikel wird jedoch gezeigt, dass die Entwicklung von M3 sowohl kurz- und langfristig im Rahmen einer Standardspezifikation der Geldnachfrage durchaus gerechtfertigt werden kann. Wesentlich für dieses Ergebnis ist die Berücksichtigung und adäquate Interpretation der Inflationsrate in der Geldnachfragefunktion.

In this paper the determinants of the long term yield spread between Italian and German government bonds are studied using daily observations for a period 1 January 1995-28 October 1997. Total spread is split into two main factors: an exchange rate factor, that is approximated by a differential on swap contracts (same maturity) and a default risk factor, that is considered as a residual. Cointegration analysis is used to test if the interest rates parity condition holds in the period considered and also the dynamic adjustment of total spread and its components is studied using impulse response analysis. The main result is that an uncovered parity condition cannot be rejected in the sample only if the relationship is augmented by the German short term interest rate. Impulse response analysis shows that this latter variable permanently affects the default risk. The main conclusion is that the reduction of the total spread in the period studied was due both to credibility gains and to favourable dynamics in the German interest rate.

This paper presents cointegration analyses of the import and export functions of the Czech Republic in 1993-1998 by identifying the main variable factors and estimating the long-run equilibrium relationship of Czech foreign trade functions. A long-run equilibrium relationship was found in the Czech import function. On the other hand, this relationship was weak in the Czech export function (coefficient of determination was only about 60%). This paper also corroborates evidence of the long-run impact of the money market imbalance to the real economy. Therefore, the author concludes, the Keynesian theory of the adjustment process applied to the balance of payments in the long-run should be complemented by the monetary approach.In the appendix to the paper, the author estimates a relationship between Czech export and import to calculate Czech export's import intensity.

With the new European fiscal compact, fiscal rules of budget balance over the cycle have been introduced to limit the growth of the debt ratio to GDP. The objection may arise that they would have an adverse effect, especially in the long run on employment and growth. We test the proposition about unemployment by investigating, with a panel of 22 OECD countries (1980-2009), the relationship between Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, NAIRU, as dependent variable, the underlying net lending government as a percentage of potential GDP (UNLG/pot.GDP), and the general government total receipts as a percentage of GDP, controlling the results with additional variables which may be credited to impact on NAIRU also in the short term. We find that UNLG/pot.GDP and the increase in fiscal burden may be both relevant in increasing the NAIRU in the long run. Thus one can say that, in the long run, high deficits not only do not reduce unemployment but aggravate it, and high tax burdens needed to finance the service of the debt and other public expenditure, under an invariant UNLG/pot.GDP, further increase the NAIRU, even if the inverse relation may also be true. In the short term there is no significant effect of these variables. Results are robust to the presence of cross section correlation. These results suggest that the assert that the constitutional rule of balancing the budget may create unemployment does not find an empirical evidence. They also suggest that further analysis should be carried out to test whether exogenous cause of a high NAIRU may impact on the budgetary deficit, thus making harder to adopt this rule.

This paper investigates the causal relationship between real export and real GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that in the period prior to WW1 the growth of the Italian economy led that of exports, while in the post-WW2 period the causal relationship was reversed with the expansion of exports that determined the growth of the Italian economy.

This paper examines the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (REH) and its sources of failure in the case of Bangladesh using various theoretical specifications, annual data from 1974-2001 and linear and non-linear time series techniques. The general findings tend to invalidate the REH: a finite time horizon and the presence of liquidity-constrained individuals are the sources of deviation from the REH. Empirical results reveal that real per capita private consumption (C) under various specifications is cointegrated generally at the 5% level with real per capita income (Y), government expenditure before and after interest rate repayments (G & G2), taxes (T) and the interest rate (r). Results reveal that an increase in G, G2, T and r reduces C and that that an increase in budget deficits raises trade deficits. These results highlight the importance of fiscal policies in boosting private consumption and controlling trade deficits, which are th e prime goals of stabilisation policies being followed by Bangladesh.

The paper estimates Japan's household saving rate function for the 1958−1998 period. We find that the contribution of the increase in net financial assets to the fall of the saving rate varies directly with the amount of assets. This has overwhelmed other factors and has caused the saving rate to fall since 1976.

Money growth in the euro area has exceeded its target since 2001. Likewise, recent empirical studies did not find evidence in favour of a stable long run money demand function. The equation appears to be increasingly unstable if more recent data are used. If the link between money balances and the macroeconomy is fragile, the rationale of monetary aggregates in the ECB strategy has to be doubted. In contrast to the bulk of the literature, we are able to identify a stable long run money demand relationship for M3 with reasonable long run behaviour. This finding is robust for different (ML and S2S) estimation methods. To obtain the result, the short run homogeneity restriction between money and prices is relaxed. In addition, a rise in the income elasticity after 2001 is taken into account. The break might be linked to the introduction of euro coins and banknotes. The monetary overhang and the real money gap do not indicate significant inflation pressures. The corresponding error correction model survives a battery of specification tests.

This paper examines the long-term relationship between macro economic fundamentals and the weighted-average land price indicators, which are supposed to be more appropriate than the official land price indicators when analyzing their impacts on the macro economy. In many cases, we find the cointegrating relationships between the weighted-average land price indicators and the discounted present value of land calculated based on the macro economic fundamentals indicators. We also find that the demographic factor has impacts on real land prices. The error-correction analysis using the cointegrating relationships shows that not only the changes in the discounted present value of land, but also the changes in the demographic factor and bank lending have an influence on the fluctuations of real land prices. Based on the analysis, the recent change in the trend of land prices in Japan is explained by the increase in the discounted present values of land in the accommodative monetary environment, the convergence of the actual land prices to the long-term equilibrium level, and the changes in bank lending.

Mainland China is the most important source of tourism for Taiwan in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the changes in the long-run demand for tourism in Taiwan by Mainland China. Using program trading and three different data sources, including the stock prices of Regent Taipei (2707), weighted index of the tourism sector (2700) and CSI ETF (0061), we find support for our hypotheses. That is, Taiwan’s tourism market does not fulfil the conditions of a strong-form efficient market hypothesis. Also, positive feedback trading does exit in Taiwan’s tourism market.

We search for breaks in the short term business lending rate pass-through in euro countries, possibly associated with the introduction of the euro. One break is detected in six national retail rates among EMU countries; two breaks are found in other six cases, and in the UK as well. The last break occurs much earlier for France while several quarters later for other countries, suggesting a loose link if ever with the event. Pass-throughs decrease (except for France), becoming even more incomplete (except for Netherlands); though the adjustment to equilibrium is faster, cross-country heterogeneity remains fairly large. With the new harmonized interest rates database, available since 2003, pass-throughs are much closer to one, especially for larger loans.

A new approach to search for structural breaks in the retail lending rA new approach is proposed for searching multiple unknown breaks, possibly associated with EMU, in the short term business lending rate pass-through. Multiple breaks are detected in five out of nine countries of the euro area. The last break occurs much before the start of EMU for France, several months after that event for Austria, Italy and Germany. Long run pass-throughs decrease (except for France) sizably below one (except for the Netherlands); heterogeneity in the monetary transmission increases across countries. These results raise doubts on claims of a more effective monetary policy under EMU.

A new approach to search for structural breaks in the retail lending rates pass-through in the wake of EMU is proposed and implemented for Italy and Portugal. The econometric exercise shows that breakpoints cluster in the second semester 1999 and that the pass-through on short term lending is, in contrast with earlier research, sizeably lower in the post-break period. The recently proposed distinction between monetary policy and cost-of-funds approaches in the pass-through analysis does not yield different breakpoints. These results challenge the widely held view that EMU has in its wake enhanced the effectiveness of monetary transmission via the banking sector and made it more uniform across countries, because of rising and converging pass-throughs. A strengthened relationship lending could at least partly explain the reduced pass-through in the Italian case.

This paper examines linkage of real interest rates for a group of selected countries in East Asia. The countries under study include Japan, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. The long run relationship is tested and estimated using the conitegration analysis. We also have conducted the impulse response analysis based on unrestricted vector autoregression, using the bias-corrected wild bootstrap for statistical inference. Our results show that (1) there exists a long run equilibrium relationship, (2) there are interesting short run dynamic interactions, in which Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand play the role of equilibrating factor

This paper empirically assesses the effect of socio-economic and demographic variables on violent crime in the United States. Using national-level time-series data over the period 1960-2000, I estimate an unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model individually for overall violent crime, murder, rape and assault. The results indicate that there is no long-run relationship among the examined variables, but a significant short-run relationship holds. Imprisonment growth, income inequality, alcohol consumption, and racial composition of the male youth population are shown to influence the short-run behaviour of violent crime.

A neglected aspect of the otherwise fairly well developed Bayesian analysis of cointegration is the point estimation of the cointegration space. It is pointed out here that, due to the well known non-identification of the cointegration vectors, the parameter space is not an inner product space and conventional Bayes estimators therefore stand without their usual decision theoretic foundation. We present a Bayes estimator of the cointegration space which takes the curved geometry of the parameter space into account. Contrary to many of the Bayes estimators used in the literature, this estimator is invariant to the ordering of the time series. A dimension invariant overall measure of cointegration space uncertainty is also proposed. A small simulation study shows that the Bayes estimator compares favorably to the maximum likelihood estimator.

A shortcoming of most empirical studies on aggregate exports is their exclusive focus on the demand side. Moreover, the effect of globalization is often neglected leading to implausibly high income elasticities. This paper models export demand and supply simultaneously and incorporates a new proxy for globalization. Owing to the non-stationarity of the data, the vector error correction model is the appropriate econometric framework. Using the Johansen procedure, two cointegration relationships are found and identified as export supply and demand. Overidentifying restrictions derived from economic theory are tested. Finally, after checking for weak exogeneity, a parsimonious partial model is presented and the adjustment paths of the endogenous variables are discussed.

We collect data on a number of financial restraints, including restrictions on deposit and lending interest rates and reserve and liquidity requirements, from central banks of six developing countries. We estimate the effects of these policies on financial development, controlling for the effect of economic development and using standard econometric techniques. We find that the effects of financial policies vary considerably across our sample of countries. Our findings demonstrate that financial liberalisation is a much more complex process than has been assumed by earlier literature and its effects on financial development are ambiguous.

Ukrainian exports can be explained by standard demand theory in the long run. Using the Johansen procedure the data do not reject the hypothesis of a unit foreign-production elasticity of Ukrainian exports, which are rather price-elastic inputs for foreign producers. It is argued that due to high domestic inflation and substantial real appreciation of the hryvnia there might be a deterministic element in the long-run relationships. When allowing for a trend in the co­integration space, the identifying restriction of an infinitely price-elastic export supply curve produces best results. However, due to missing export price statistics long-run interpretations are to be taken with care because they are conditional upon assumptions on how costs and exchange-rates are passed through on export prices.

The behaviour of averaged periodograms and cross-periodograms of a broad class of nonstationary processes is studied. The processes include nonstationary ones that are fractional of any order, as well as asymptotically stationary fractional ones. The cross-periodogram can involve two nonstationary processes of possibly different orders, or a nonstationary and an asymptotically stationary one. The averaging takes place either over the whole frequency band, or over one that degenerates slowly to zero frequency as sample size increases. In some cases it is found to make no asymptotic difference, and in particular we indicate how the behaviour of the mean and variance changes across the two-dimensional space of integration orders. The results employ only local-to-zero assumptions on the spectra of the underlying weakly stationary sequences. It is shown how the results can be applied in fractional cointegration with unknown integration orders.

The behaviour of averaged periodograms and cross-periodograms of a broad class of nonstationary processes is studied. The processes include nonstationary ones that are fractional of any order, as well as asymptotically stationary fractional ones. The cross-periodogram can involve two nonstationary processes of possibly different orders, or a nonstationary and an asymptotically stationary one. The averaging takes place either over the whole frequency band, or over one that degenerates slowly to zero frequency as sample size increases. In some cases it is found to make no asymptotic difference, and in particular we indicate how the behaviour of the mean and variance changes across the two-dimensional space of integration orders. The results employ only local-to-zero assumptions on the spectra of the underlying weakly stationary sequences. It is shown how the results can be applied in fractional cointegration with unknown integration orders.

This paper investigates statistically the existence of a long-run relationship between public expenditure and GNP (Wagner’s Law) using data for Turkey over the period 1950-1990. Recent advances in time series analysis have permitted the investigation of the long-run relationship between public expenditure and GNP in terms of cointegration analysis. In the case of Wagner’s Law, evidence of cointegration is sufficient to establish a long-run relationship between public expenditure and income. However, to support Wagner’s Law would require unidirectional causality from income to public expenditure. Therefore cointegration should be seen as a necessary condition for Wagner’s Law, but not sufficient. Hence, conditional on cointegration results, it is necessary to look at the causality properties of the model(s). Using the Engle and Granger cointegration test, the Granger Causality test and Turkish time series aggregate data for the period 1950-1990, we find no empirical support for Wagner’s Law.

Incomes policy started with the San Valentine's decree of 1984, which marks the beginning of the process that led to the abolishment of Scala Mobile and reached its peak with the Protocollo d'intesa of 1993. The work proposes to study by cointegration analysis the effects of incomes policy on the short and long run equilibrium between real wages, labour productivity and unemployment. The analysis is based on ISTAT data relative to 1951-'95. The Johansen procedure detects only one cointegrating vector. The Engle and Granger procedure applied to real wages detects a near unitary coefficient for labour productivity and a negative elasticity of unemployment. For the after-1984 period, the procedure detects a statistically significant change in the coefficient of labour productivity, but not of unemployment. In the short run, the abolition of Scala Mobile and the introduction of concertazione coincided with a negative coefficient of productivity growth, which confirms the loss of purchasing power of wages, implicit in the national agreements. Nevertheless, the coefficient of residuals in the second step increases in absolute value in the period under consideration, suggesting a faster return to the long run equilibrium value. The relationship between real wages and unemployment does not seem to change though.

According to several empirical studies, US inflation and nominal interest rates, as well as the real interest rate, can be described as unit root processes. These results imply that nominal interest rates and expected inflation do not move one-for-one in the long run, which is not consistent with the theoretical models. In this paper we introduce a nonlinear bivariate mixture autoregressive model that seems to fit quarterly US data (1952 Q1 – 2000 Q2) reasonably well. It is found that the three-month treasury bill rate and inflation share a common nonlinear component that explains a large part of their persistence. The real interest rate is devoid of this component, indicating one-for-one movement of the nominal interest rate and inflation in the long run and thus stationarity of the real interest rate. Comparisons with a linear vector autoregressive model reveal that in policy analysis the consequences of neglecting nonlinearities can be substantial.

Настоящото изследване е с теоретико-приложен характер. Теоретичните аспекти обхващат доизясняване на идеите и концепциите за външната търговия като фактор за развитието на националната икономика. Извършва се анализ на информационното осигуряване на статистическите изследвания на външната търговия – принципи, системи за отчитане и класификации. Приложният аспект на изследването включва усъвършенстване на статистическата методология за изучаване на външната търговия, идентифициране на проблемите при изучаване на нейните количествени параметри и анализ на структурата, динамиката и взаимовръзките на външнотърговския стокообмен на България. За тази цел се апробират различни статистически методи – динамичен, структурен и регресионен анализ, като и модели за оценка на влиянието на външната търговия върху някои основни макроикономически индикатори. В процеса на изследването се извеждат основните проблеми пред външнотърговската дейност, международните отношения, платежния баланс и др. This study has theoretical and practical character. Theoretical aspects include clarification of ideas and concepts of foreign trade as a factor for the development of national economy. It is performed analysis of information assurance of external trade surveys by focusing on principles, systems and accounting classifications. The applied aspect of the study include improving the statistical methodology for the study of external trade, identifying the problems in studying its quantitative parameters and analysis of the structure, dynamics and interactions of Bulgarian external trade. For this purpose are approbated different statistical methods – analysis of time series, structural and regression analysis, as well different models to estimate the impact of external trade on some key macroeconomic indicators. In the course of the study are shown the main problems for external trade, international relations, balance of payments and more.