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Comparable estimates of the heat-related work productivity loss (WPL) in different countries over the world are difficult partly due to the lack of exact measures and comparable data for different counties. In this study, we analysed 4363 responses to a global online survey on the WPL during heat waves in 2016. The participants were from both developed and developing countries, facilitating estimates of the heat-related WPL across the world for the year. The heat-related WPL for each country involved was then deduced for increases of 1.5, 2, 3 and 4 °C in the global mean surface temperature under the representative concentration pathway scenarios in climate models. The average heat-related WPL in 2016 was 6.6 days for developing countries and 3.5 days for developed countries. The estimated heat-related WPL was negatively correlated with the gross domestic product per capita. When global surface temperatures increased by 1.5, 2, 3 and 4 °C, the corresponding WPL was 9 (19), 12 (31), 22 (61) and 33 (94) days for developed (developing) countries, quantifying how developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change from a particular point of view. Moreover, the heat-related WPL was unevenly distributed among developing countries. In a 2°C-warmer world, the heat-related WPL would be more than two months in Southeast Asia, the most influenced region. The results are considerable for developing strategy of adaptation especially for developing countries.

Using observed surface temperature data from about 570 meteorological stations in China, the linear temperature trend over the last 50 years (1962–2011) is estimated. Average warming rates at all stations are 0.284 ± 0.142, 0.200 ± 0.163, and 0.392 ± 0.193 °C/10 a for annual, June–July–August (JJA), and December–January–February (DJF) mean temperatures, respectively. The warming rates (°C/a) have a regressed slope of 0.001 with latitude, and their relationship with latitude using data from stations below 1,000 m altitude is estimated at 0.009 °C/(10 a · degree). A k-means clustering is constructed using correlation coefficients to quantify the closeness. The clustering schemes with k = 5 and k = 10 are successfully implemented for annual, DJF, and JJA mean temperatures. The k = 10 scheme showed greater ability to distinguish different locations than the k = 5 clustering. In both schemes, the mean estimated warming rates are averaged over stations in each cluster. The clusters in DJF are much different than those for the entire year and for JJA. The average warming rate in each cluster is estimated and compared. Using stations in the cluster of high-elevation southeast Tibetan Plateau, the relationship between warming rates and altitude is estimated at 1.0 × 10−2 °C/(10 a · 100 m).

Surface soil moisture has great impact on both meso- and microscale atmospheric processes, especially on severe local convection processes and on the dynamics of short-lived torrential rains. To promote the performance of the land surface model (LSM) in surface soil moisture simulations, a hybrid hydrologic runoff parameterization scheme based upon the essential modeling theories of the Xin'anjiang model and Topography based hydrological Model (TOPMODEL) was developed in preference to the simple water balance model (SWB) in the Noah LSM. Using a strategy for coupling and integrating this modified Noah LSM to the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) analogous to that used with the standard Noah LSM, a simulation of atmosphere-land surface interactions for a torrential event during 2007 in Shandong was attempted. The results suggested that the surface, 10-cm depth soil moisture simulated by GRAPES using the modified hydrologic approach agrees well with the observations. Improv...

Seasonality changes in China under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations were simulated using nine global climate models, assuming a 1% per year in- crease in atmospheric CO2. Simulations of 20th century experiments of season changes in China from the periods 196180 to 19812000 were also assessed using the same models. The results show that the ensemble mean simula- tion of the nine models performs better than that of an individual model simulation. Compared the mean clima- tology of the last 20 years in the CO2-quadrupling ex- periments with that in the CO2-doubling ones, the ensem- ble mean results show that the hottest/coldest continu- ous-90-day (local summer/winter) mean temperature in- creased by 3.4/4.5°C, 2.7/2.9°C, and 2.9/4.1°C in North- east (NE), Southwest (SW), and Southeast (SE) China, respectively, indicating a weakening seasonal amplitude (SA), but by 4.4/4.0°C in Northwest (NW) China, indi- cating an enlarging SA. The local summer lengthened by 37/30/66/54 days in NW, NE, SW, and SE China, respec- tively. In some models, the winter disappeared during the CO2-quadrupling period, judging by the threshold based on the CO2-doubling period. The average of the other model simulations show that the local winter shortened by 42/36/61/44 days respectively, in the previously men- tioned regions.

Clustered heavy rains (CHRs) defined using hierarchical cluster analysis based on daily observations of precipitation in China during 1960–2008 are investigated in this paper. The geographical patt...

Inhomogeneities in the daily mean/maximum/ minimum temperature (Tm/Tmax/Tmin) series from 1960–2008 at 549 National Standard Stations (NSSs) in China were analyzed by using the Multiple Analysis of...

This paper demonstrates regional characteristics, a long-term decreasing trend, and decadal variations in the frequency of cold surge events based on daily mean temperature and daily minimum temperature data in mainland China from 1960 to 2008. During these 48 years, four high frequency centers of cold surge events were located in Xinjiang, central North China, northeast China, and southeast China. A main frequency peak of cold surge events occurs in autumn for the four regions and another peak is detected in spring over northeast China and southeast China. The regional pattern of cold surge frequencies is in accordance with the perturbation kinetic energy distribution in October—December, January, and February—April. The long-term decreasing trend (–0.2 times/decade) of cold surge frequencies in northeast China and decadal variations in China are related to the variations of the temperature difference between southern and northern China in the winter monsoon season; these variations are due to th...

The output of 25 models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) were evaluated, with a focus on summer precipitation in eastern China for the last 40 years of the 20th century. Most models failed to reproduce rainfall associated with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and hence the seasonal cycle in eastern China, but provided reasonable results in Southwest (SW) and Northeast China (NE). The simulations produced reasonable results for the Yangtze–Huai (YH) Basin area, although the Meiyu phenomenon was underestimated in general. One typical regional phenomenon, a seasonal northward shift in the rain belt from early to late summer, was completely missed by most models. The long-term climate trends in rainfall over eastern China were largely underestimated, and the observed geographical pattern of rainfall changes was not reproduced by most models. Precipitation extremes were evaluated via parameters of fitted GEV (Generalized Extreme Values) distributions. The annual ex...

Having analyzed a global grid temperature anomaly data set and some sea level pressure data during the last century, we found the following facts. Firstly, the annual temperature change with a warming trend of about 0.6°C/ 100 years in the tropical area over Indian to the western Pacific Oceans was most closely correlated to the global mean change. Therefore, the temperature change in this area might serve as an indi-cator of global mean change at annual and longer time scales. Secondly, a cooling of about -0.3°C/ 100 years occurred over the northern Atlantic. Thirdly, a two-wave pattern of temperature change, warming over northern Asia and northwestern America and cooling over the northern Atlantic and the northern Pa-cific, occurred during the last half century linked to strengthening westerlies over the northern Atlantic and the weakening Siberian High. Fourthly, a remarkable seasonal difference occurred over the Eurasian con-tinent, with cooling (warming) in winter (summer) during 1896–1945, and warming (cooling) in winter (summer) during 1946-1995. The corresponding variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the South-ern Oscillation were also discussed.

Inhomogeneities in the temperature series from Beijing and Shanghai are analyzed, using the detailed histories of both sets of observations. The major corrections for different periods range from −0.33 to 0.6°C for Beijing and −0.33 to 0.3°C for Shanghai, Annual mean and extreme temperature series are deduced from the daily observations and trends in the adjusted and unadjusted series are compared. The adjusted yearly mean temperatures show a warming trend of 0.5°C/ century since the turn of this century and an enhanced one of 2.0°C/ century since the 1960s. In contrast, the unadjusted data show a twice this value trend for Shanghai but little trend for Beijing at the long-term scale and overestimate the recent warming by 50%–130%. Beijing experienced a decrease of frequency of the extremes together with a cooling during the 1940s–1970s and an increase of frequency of extremes together with a warming since then. The trends of frequency of extremes at Shanghai were more or less opposite. It is implied that the regional trends of strong weather variations may be different even when the regional mean temperatures coherently change.