1. Land-use and climate risk assessment for Earth's remaining wilderness
- Author
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Ernest F. Asamoah, Moreno Di Marco, James E.M. Watson, Linda J. Beaumont, Oscar Venter, and Joseph M. Maina
- Subjects
velocity of climate change ,Conservation of Natural Resources ,climate mitigation ,wilderness areas ,Climate Change ,climate adaptation ,Biodiversity ,Risk Assessment ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,land-use change ,Wilderness ,post-2020 global biodiversity framework ,tracking climate change ,protected areas ,General Agricultural and Biological Sciences ,climate change ,climate refugia ,Ecosystem - Abstract
Earth's wilderness areas are reservoirs of genetic information and carbon storage systems, and are vital to reducing extinction risks. Retaining the conservation value of these areas is fundamental to achieving global biodiversity conservation goals; however, climate and land-use risk can undermine their ability to provide these functions. The extent to which wilderness areas are likely to be impacted by these drivers has not previously been quantified. Using climate and land-use change during baseline (1971-2005) and future (2016-2050) periods, we estimate that these stressors within wilderness areas will increase by ca. 60% and 39%, respectively, under a scenario of high emission and land-use change (SSP5-RCP8.5). Nearly half (49%) of all wilderness areas could experience substantial climate change by 2050 under this scenario, potentially limiting their capacity to shelter biodiversity. Notable climate (5 km year
- Published
- 2022