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Economic and financial forecasts are important for business planning and government policy but are notoriously challenging. We take advantage of recent advances in individual and group judgement, and a data set of economic and financial forecasts compiled over 25 years, consisting of multiple individual and institutional estimates, to test the claim that nominal groups will make more accurate economic and financial forecast than individuals. We validate the forecasts using the subsequent published (real) outcomes, explore the performance of nominal groups against institutions, identify potential superforecasters and discuss the benefits of implementing structured judgment techniques to improve economic and financial forecasts.

Background Suicide is a serious public health problem. Aims To investigate the sociodemographic and clinical features of callers (patients) classed by the Qatar National Mental Health Helpline (NMHH) as moderate to high priority based on the risk of self-harm or suicide during the COVID-19 pandemic. Method The study design was a retrospective chart review of patients who contacted the helpline in the first 12 months, starting 1 April 2020. Data of those classed as moderate to high priority based on risk to self were collected using a specifically designed form. Absolute and relative frequencies for each of the studied categorical variables were determined. Results Four hundred and ninety-eight patients were included. More than half were female. The mean age was 32 years (range 8–85 years). Two-thirds of patients were from Arab countries and more than half of all patients had contacted mental health services for the first time. The most common symptoms elicited included suicidal thoughts, depressed mood and disturbed sleep. The most common psychiatric disorders were depression and generalised anxiety disorder. Most patients were seen within 4 h and received psychiatric interventions. Virtually all patients received non-pharmacological interventions; only 38.5% received pharmacological interventions. The majority had follow-up appointments arranged with mental health services. Conclusions People from the Indian subcontinent and males proportionally approached services less, which may reflect stigma. The NMHH improved access to care for patients considered at risk to self and prevented hospital admissions. The NMHH offers a valuable additional choice to patients and assists in prevention and management of suicidal behaviour and other mental health difficulties.

Background The CyberKnife Xsight lung-tracking system (XLTS) provides an alternative to fiducial-based target-tracking systems (FTTS) for non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients without invasive fiducial insertion procedures. This study provides a method for 3D independent dosimetric verification of the accuracy of the FTTS compared to the XLTS without relying on log-files generated by the CyberKnife system. Methods A respiratory motion trace was taken from a 4D-CT of a real lung cancer patient and applied to a modified QUASAR™ respiratory motion phantom. A novel approach to 3D dosimetry was developed using Gafchromic EBT3 film, allowing the 3D dose distribution delivered to the moving phantom to be reconstructed. Treatments were planned using the recommended margins for one and three fiducial markers and XLTS 2-view, 1-view and 0-view target-tracking modalities. The dose delivery accuracy was analysed by comparing the reconstructed dose distributions to the planned dose distributions using gamma index analysis. Results For the 3%/2 mm gamma criterion, gamma passing rates up to 99.37% were observed for the static deliveries. The 3-fiducial and 1-fiducial-based deliveries exhibited passing rates of 93.74% and 97.82%, respectively, in the absence of target rotation. When target rotation was considered, the passing rate for 1-fiducial tracking degraded to 91.24%. The passing rates observed for XLTS 2-view, 1-view and 0-view target-tracking were 92.78%, 96.22% and 76.08%, respectively. Conclusions Except for the XLTS 0-view, the dosimetric accuracy of the XLTS was comparable to the FTTS under equivalent treatment conditions. This study gives us further confidence in the CyberKnife XLTS and FTTS systems.

In the Middle Ages the cardinal virtue Prudence is revered and her depiction widespread. In the modern era, however, few Westerners esteem Prudence or can recognize her iconography. This article traces the evolution of the archetypal image of Prudence beginning in the fifth century through art and literature. By the modern era the formerly multifaceted Prudence becomes narrowly characterized as cautious or prudish, evidenced in popular culture (e.g., film). Her value might appear negligible. However, archetypal Prudence reemerges in Jung’s paradigm. The lens of depth psychology further reveals the current presence of archetypal Prudence within western culture, especially its prevalent pathological presentation, which may have implications for western culture’s sustainability. Prudence, as a virtue rooted in human neurobiology and the archetypal psyche, seems crucial to navigating the current manifestations of cultural and ecological chaos, perhaps demonstrating one of humanity’s current psychological tasks: to bridge human consciousness with Nature.

Introduction In radiotherapy, the presence of air gaps near a tumour can lead to underdose to the tumour. In this study, the impact of air gaps on dose to the surface was evaluated. 3D-printing was used to construct a Eurosil-4 Pink bolus customised to the patient and its dosimetric properties were compared with that of Paraffin wax bolus. Methods Surface dose was measured for flat sheets of Eurosil-4 Pink bolus with different thicknesses. Different air gap thicknesses were inserted between the bolus and the surface, and dose was measured for each air gap using 10 cm × 10 cm fields. This was repeated with the effective field size calculated from the patient plan. Surface dose was measured for varying angles of incidence. A customised chest phantom was used to compare dose for two customised Eurosil-4 Pink boluses, and commonly used Paraffin wax bolus. Results The surface dose was found to be highest for 1.1 cm thick bolus. The decrease in surface dose for the Eurosil-4 Pink bolus was minimal for the 10 cm × 10 cm field, but higher for the effective field size and larger angles of incidence. For instance, the dose was reduced by 6.2% as a result of 1 cm air gap for the effective field size and 60 degree angle of incidence. The doses measured using Gafchromic film under the customised Eurosil-4 Pink boluses were similar to that of the Paraffin wax bolus, and higher than prescribed dose. Conclusions The impact of air gaps can be significant for small field sizes and oblique beams. A customised Eurosil-4 Pink bolus has promising physical and dosimetric properties to ensure sufficient dose to the tumour, even for treatments where larger impact of air gaps is suspected.

In Australia, the number of young people presenting to the emergency department with mental health concerns, in particular, suicidal behaviour (defined here as suicidal ideation, thoughts, intent and attempts) is increasing. Little is known about the experiences of Australian young people who present to hospital emergency departments with suicidal behaviour. In this qualitative study, we conducted a series of focus groups with 55 young people aged 16–25 years, with a view to developing a framework for youth suicide prevention for Western Australia. The data were analysed using a general inductive analysis approach. We explored the experiences and perceptions of the care and management of 35 young people presenting to Western Australian hospital emergency departments. Participants described a range of negative experiences relating to the emergency department environment, staff attitudes and their treatment by staff. We argue that adapting ED practices and approaches to young people presenting with suicidal thoughts and behaviours based on these findings will result in lower rates of repeated presentations and admissions to hospital and lower rates of suicide attempts and deaths by suicide.

PURPOSE The use of three-dimensional (3D) printing to develop custom phantoms for dosimetric studies in radiotherapy is increasing. The process allows production of phantoms designed to evaluated specific geometries, patients, or patient groups with a defining feature. The ability to print bone-equivalent phantoms has, however, proved challenging. The purpose of this work was to 3D print a series of three similar spine phantoms containing no surgical implants, implants made of titanium, and implants made of carbon fiber, for future dosimetric and imaging studies. Phantoms were evaluated for (a) tissue and bone equivalence, (b) geometric accuracy compared to design, and (c) similarity to one another. METHODS Sample blocks of PLA, HIPS, and StoneFil PLA-concrete with different infill densities were printed to evaluate tissue and bone equivalence. The samples were used to develop CT to physical (PD) and effective relative electron density (REDeff ) conversion curves and define the settings for printing the phantoms. CT scans of the printed phantoms were obtained to assess the geometry and densities achieved. Mean distance to agreement (MDA) and DICE coefficient (DSC) values were calculated between contours defining the different materials, obtained from design and like phantom modules. HU values were used to determine PD and REDeff and subsequently evaluate tissue and bone equivalence. RESULTS Sample objects showed linear relationships between HU and both PD and REDeff for both PLA and StoneFil. The PD and REDeff of the objects calculated using clinical CT conversion curves were not accurate and custom conversion curves were required. PLA printed with 90% infill density was found to have a PD of 1.11 ± 0.03 g.cm-3 and REDeff of 1.04 ± 0.02 and selected for tissue- equivalent phantom elements. StoneFil printed with 100% infill density showed a PD of 1.35 ± 0.03 g.cm-3 and REDeff of 1.24 ± 0.04 and was selected for bone-equivalent elements. Upon evaluation of the final phantoms, the PLA elements displayed PD in the range of 1.10 ± 0.03 g.cm-3 -1.13 ± 0.03 g.cm-3 and REDeff in the range of 1.02 ± 0.03-1.06 ± 0.03. The StoneFil elements showed PD in the range of 1.43 ± 0.04 g.cm-3 -1.46 ± 0.04 g.cm-3 and REDeff in the range of 1.31 ± 0.04-1.33 ± 0.04. The PLA phantom elements were shown to have MDA of ≤1.00 mm and DSC of ≥0.95 compared to design, and ≤0.48 mm and ≥0.91 compared like modules. The StoneFil elements displayed MDA values of ≤0.44 mm and DSC of ≥0.98 compared to design and ≤0.43 mm and ≥0.92 compared like modules. CONCLUSIONS Phantoms which were radiologically equivalent to tissue and bone were produced with a high level of similarity to design and even higher level of similarity of one another. When used in conjunction with the derived CT to PD or REDeff conversion curves they are suitable for evaluating the effects of spinal surgical implants of varying material of construction.

Background Multiple services are often needed to address the needs of young people with complex emotional or behavioural needs. The Youth Wraparound model of service aims to provide all health and supportive services from one coordinating agency. While this has been researched overseas, there are currently few examples of this described in the Australian psychiatric context. Aim To document the implementation and evaluation of a Youth Wraparound service which was provided to a young person with exceptionally complex and challenging needs for 6 months. A single-case study design is presented with an evaluation of the clinical outcome and economic costs. Methods We present a description of the service context, principles of the model of care, implementation process, and an evaluation of service utilization data from health and child protection services and mental health records. A single-case longitudinal design compared service utilization data obtained up to 3 years prior to treatment with data collected one and a half years since treatment commenced. Results There were significant reductions in the number of admissions to emergency departments, mental health wards and secure units, and improvements in mental health and well-being. Yearly average time in institutional settings reduced from 69% to 7%. Cost savings in health utilization were estimated at $2 326 790. Conclusions The Youth Wraparound model has the potential to offer improved clinical outcomes, significant cost savings over time, improved coordination between care providers, and an alternative to detention or incarceration.

Aim Aboriginal young people are more likely to experience mental health issues and to access mental health services than other young Australians, yet there are few culturally informed mental health programs and services available. This study describes and documents the effectiveness of the culturally sensitive model within YouthLink, a state-wide mental health service program in Western Australia for young people aged 13 to 24 years of age. Methods A mixed-method design including a descriptive approach reporting on the YouthLink framework and an empirical research design where 40 Aboriginal clients completed client feedback monitoring measures between 2014 and 2016. Results The YouthLink culturally informed conceptual framework adheres to best practice principles relevant to work with Indigenous people, family and communities. Aboriginal young people indicated improvement across the treatment period as shown by within-group differences between the first and last session scores on feedback measures. Therapeutic alliance (together with lower baseline acuity and female gender) also contributed significantly to positive treatment outcomes. Conclusions Through a strong role of Aboriginal practitioners, relationships with Aboriginal communities, and greater service flexibility that embraces cultural meaning and knowledge, YouthLink has sought to enhance its response to the needs of Aboriginal youth.

Objective High-quality mental health care requires written strategies to set a vision for the future, yet, there is limited systematic information available on the monitoring and evaluation of such strategies. The aim of this nationwide study is to evaluate local mental health strategies in community-based mental health services provided by municipalities. Design and setting Mental health strategy documents were gathered through an online search and an e-mail survey of the local authorities of all Finnish mainland municipalities (n = 320). Participants Out of 320 municipalities, documents for 129 municipalities (63 documents) were included in the study. Intervention The documents obtained (n = 63) were evaluated against the World Health Organization checklist for mental health strategies and policies. Main outcome measures Evaluation of the process, operations and content of the documents, against 31 indicators in the checklist. Results Out of 320 Finnish municipalities, 40% (n = 129) had a mental health strategy document available and 33% (n = 104) had a document that was either in preparation or being updated. In these documents, priorities, targets and activities were clearly described. Nearly all (99%) of the documents suggested a commitment to preventative work, and 89% mentioned a dedication to developing community-based care. The key shortfalls identified were the lack of consideration of human rights (0%), the limited consideration of research (5%) and the lack of financial planning (28%) to successfully execute the plans. Of the documents obtained, 60% covered both mental health and substance abuse issues. Conclusions This study contributes to the limited evidence base on health care strategy evaluations. Further research is needed to understand the potential impact of policy analysis.

Rosenberg's goanna, Varanus rosenbergi, is listed as ‘Vulnerable’ in New South Wales, but it is not currently listed nationally in Australia as large populations exist on Kangaroo Island in South Australia. There are several significant morphological and behavioural differences between populations in NSW and those in the rest of Australia and some researchers believe these differences may be great enough to warrant separate taxonomic status. To investigate the magnitude and nature of these differences with an independent data set, we sequenced a 867 base pair DNA fragment of the mitochondrial genome that includes half of the ND4 gene and three tRNA genes. We obtained sequence data from 30 individuals of V. rosenbergi drawn from across its range in southern Australia, and also included representatives of two other Varanus species, V. gouldii and V. varius. Thirteen mitochondrial haplotypes were found among the 30 V. rosenbergi samples. Phylogenetic signal in the data sets was strong and a variety ...

Background Non-compliance is a significant problem among people with serious mental disorders, presenting a challenge for mental health professionals. Prompts such as telephone calls, visits, and a posted referral letter to patients are currently used to encourage patient attendance at clinics and/or compliance with medication. More recently, the use of information and communication technology (ICT)-based prompting methods have increased. Methods include mobile text message (SMS - short message service), e-mail or use of any other electronic device with the stated purpose of encouraging compliance. Objectives To investigate the effects of ICT-based prompting to support treatment compliance in people with serious mental illness compared with standard care. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Schizophrenia Group’s Trials Register (31st May 2011 and 9th July 2012) which is based on regular searches of CINAHL, BIOSIS, AMED, EMBASE, PubMed, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and registries of clinical trials. Also, we inspected references of all identified studies for further trials and contacted authors of trials for additional information. Selection criteria Relevant randomised controlled trials involving adults with serious mental illness, comparing any ICT-based prompt or combination of prompts by automatic or semi-automatic system compared with standard care. Data collection and analysis Review authors reliably assessed trial quality and extracted data. We calculated risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a fixed-effect model. For continuous outcomes, we estimated the mean difference (MD) between groups, again with 95% confidence intervals. A 'Summary of findings' table using GRADE was created, and we assessed included studies for risk of bias. Main results The search identified 35 references, with 25 studies, but we could only include two studies with a total of 358 participants. The studies had a moderate risk of bias, and therefore risk overestimating any positive effects of ICT-based prompting. Both included studies compared semi-automatised ICT-based prompting intervention with standard care groups in mental health outpatient care. The interventions were SMS-message and an electronic assistant device. One included study reported our primary outcome, compliance. There was not any clear evidence that ICT-based prompts increase improvement in compliance (stop taking medication within six months n = 320, RR 1.11 CI 0.96 to 1.29, moderate quality evidence). There was some low quality evidence that ICT-based prompts have small effects for: mental state (average change in specific symptom scores within three months n = 251, MD -0.30 CI -0.53 to -0.07; severity of illness within three months n = 251, MD -0.10 CI -0.13 to -0.07 and six months n = 251, MD -0.10 CI -0.13 to -0.07; average change in depressive scores within six months n = 251, RR 0.00 CI -0.28 to 0.28; global symptoms within three months n = 251, MD -0.10 CI -0.38 to -0.07; negative symptoms within three months n = 251, MD -0.10 CI -0.38 to 0.18 and six months n = 251, MD -0.30 CI -0.58 to 0.02, low quality evidence). Level of insight improved more among people receiving ICT-based prompt compared with those in the control group at six months (n = 251, MD -0.10 CI -0.13 to -0.07). ICT-based prompts also increased quality of life (average change in quality of life within six months n = 251, RR 0.50 CI 0.19 to 0.81, moderate quality evidence). Based on the existing data, there is no evidence that either intervention is less acceptable than the other (n = 347, 2 RCTs, RR 1.46 CI 0.70 to 3.05, low quality evidence). Included studies did not report outcomes of service utilisation, behaviour, costs or adverse events. Authors' conclusions The evidence base on the effects of ICT-based prompts is still inconclusive. Data to clarify ICT-based prompting effects are awaited from an ongoing trial, but further well-conducted trials considering the different ICT-based prompts are warranted.

Over ninety-seven per cent of Libya's water for agricultural and other uses came from groundwater in 1980 (Pallas). By then it was obvious that the renewable water in the coastal aquifers was seriously depleted and would not be sufficient to sustain the levels of water use implied by the national agricultural development plans. Meanwhile the potential of the southern aquifers had become apparent through their development in Kufrah, Sarir and Fezzan.The Gefara Plain has always been the major agricultural area of the country and until 1973, both before and after independence, had always attracted the bulk of public and private investment in irrigation. The decline in the level of the coastal groundwater was observed, or predicted, by all hydro-geologists who looked at the Gefara Plain after 1950, although it should be remarked that the observations were made on the basis of imprecise and unrepresentative data. Even by 1980 figures on groundwater recharge (estimated from landuse and assumed pumping levels) were numerous and inconsistent making it difficult for policy makers to determine the economies required and the measures necessary to achieve the optimum management of water resources. Depending upon which estimates of recharge and withdrawal were used, the amount by which withdrawal exceeded recharge varied from three to eight times.In these circumstances it was obviously prudent to attempt to determine the water balance from the Gefara Plain, and to this end a study was commissioned by FAO, on behalf of the Secretariat of Agriculture in Tripoli, for a study of recent satellite imagery to determine whether this inexpensive system of resources survey could make a contribution to planning water use in north-west Libya. By providing data on the irrigated area. From such data the water use element of the water balance equation could be estimated.