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Summary Background Multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis are emerging worldwide. The Green Light Committee initiative supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis in 90 countries. We used estimates from the Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study to predict MDR and XDR tuberculosis trends in four countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis: India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. Methods We calibrated a compartmental model to data from drug resistance surveys and WHO tuberculosis reports to forecast estimates of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis and the percentage of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis caused by acquired drug resistance, assuming no fitness cost of resistance from 2000 to 2040 in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. Findings The model forecasted the percentage of MDR tuberculosis among incident cases of tuberculosis to increase, reaching 12·4% (95% prediction interval 9·4–16·2) in India, 8·9% (4·5–11·7) in the Philippines, 32·5% (27·0–35·8) in Russia, and 5·7% (3·0–7·6) in South Africa in 2040. It also predicted the percentage of XDR tuberculosis among incident MDR tuberculosis to increase, reaching 8·9% (95% prediction interval 5·1–12·9) in India, 9·0% (4·0–14·7) in the Philippines, 9·0% (4·8–14·2) in Russia, and 8·5% (2·5–14·7) in South Africa in 2040. Acquired drug resistance would cause less than 30% of incident MDR tuberculosis during 2000–40. Acquired drug resistance caused 80% of incident XDR tuberculosis in 2000, but this estimate would decrease to less than 50% by 2040. Interpretation MDR and XDR tuberculosis were forecast to increase in all four countries despite improvements in acquired drug resistance shown by the Green Light Committee-supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Additional control efforts beyond improving acquired drug resistance rates are needed to stop the spread of MDR and XDR tuberculosis in countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis. Funding US Agency for International Development and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Tuberculosis Elimination.

Less toxic and less expensive drugs and shorter treatment regimens are needed., Data from a large multicenter observational study of patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB) were analyzed to simulate the possible use of 2 new approaches to treatment of MDR TB: a short (9-month) regimen and a bedaquiline-containing regimen. Of 1,254 patients, 952 (75.9%) had no resistance to fluoroquinolones and second-line injectable drugs and thus would qualify as candidates for the 9-month regimen; 302 (24.1%) patients with resistance to a fluoroquinolone or second-line injectable drug would qualify as candidates for a bedaquiline-containing regimen in accordance with published guidelines. Among candidates for the 9-month regimen, standardized drug-susceptibility tests demonstrated susceptibility to a median of 5 (interquartile range 5–6) drugs. Among candidates for bedaquiline, drug-susceptibility tests demonstrated susceptibility to a median of 3 (interquartile range 2–4) drugs; 26% retained susceptibility to

Setting: Drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) is an important public health problem in Latvia. Objective: To document trends, characteristics and treatment outcomes of registered patients with multi-drug-resistant (MDR-) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR-) TB in Latvia from 2000 to 2010. Design: A retrospective national cohort study. Results: Of 1779 patients, 1646 (92%) had MDR- and 133 (8%) XDR-TB. Over 11 years, the proportion of XDR-TB among MDR-TB patients increased from 2% to 18%. Compared to MDR-TB patients, those with XDR-TB were significantly more likely to have failed MDR-TB treatment (OR 8.4, 95%CI 4.3–16.2), have human immunodeficiency virus infection (OR 3.2, 95%CI 1.8–5.7), be illegal drug users (OR 5.7, 95%CI 2.6–11.6) or have had contact with MDR-TB patients (OR 1.9, 95%CI 1.3–2.8). Cure rates for XDR-TB were 50%. Compared with MDR-TB patients, those with XDR-TB had a higher risk of treatment failure (29% vs. 8%, respectively, P < 0.001). Unfavourable treatment outcomes were significantly associated with being male; having smear-positive disease; pulmonary cavities; failure, default or relapse after previous MDR-TB treatment; and a history of incarceration. Conclusion: More MDR-TB in Latvia is now also XDR-TB. This study identified several risk factors for XDR-TB and, for unfavourable treatment outcomes, highlighting the importance of early diagnosis and appropriate management of MDR-/XDR-TB.

Introduction. Since 2014 Delamanid (Dlm) was introduced in M/XDR-TB treatment under programmatic conditions. The aim of this study was to analyse experience of Dlm use. Methods. For all MDR-TB cases treatment regimens (Tx) are designed by MDR-TB expert committee. Dlm is prescribed for patients with risk of failure of Tx due to resistance or severe intolerance of key 2 nd line drugs. We analysed clinical and demographic data for all patients who received Dlm during the period of July 2014 to February 2016. Data were collected from patient9s medical records. Results. In total 20 MDR TB patients received Dlm: 3 female and 17 male with median age 46 years, including 2 children (11 and 13 years old). Newly diagnosed-12 patients and 8 previously treated for TB. Resistance pattern for study group-ethambutol 95%, pyrazinamide 85%, kanamycin 60%, capreomycin 65%, amikacin 55%, levofloxacin 50%, moxifloxacin 25%, linezolid 0%, etionamide 50%, cycloserine 15%, PAS 50%. 14 patients have finished treatment with Dlm with median duration of 209 days, 6 are cured, one was lost to follow up. The duration of Dlm use was extended beyond 6 months for 50% of patients. For paediatric cases the duration of Dlm was 6 months with 12 months total duration of Tx. There were 4 adverse events that were possibly related to Dlm. Two patients had QTc interval higher than 450ms,but none increased above 500ms. Conclusions. With Dlm now it is possible to prescribe effective Tx even for complicated M/XDR-TB patients. Our experience shows that due to limited Tx options there is clear indication to extend Dlm use beyond 6 months. Although numbers are limited experience so far indicates that Dlm is safe drug for all patients, including children.

The role of so-called “group 5” second-line drugs as a part of antibiotic therapy for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is widely debated. We performed an individual patient data meta-analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of several group 5 drugs including amoxicillin/clavulanic acid, thioacetazone, the macrolide antibiotics, linezolid, clofazimine and terizidone for treatment of patients with MDR-TB.Detailed individual patient data were obtained from 31 published cohort studies of MDR-TB therapy. Pooled treatment outcomes for each group 5 drug were calculated using a random effects meta-analysis. Primary analyses compared treatment success to a combined outcome of failure, relapse or death.Among 9282 included patients, 2191 received at least one group 5 drug. We found no improvement in treatment success among patients taking clofazimine, amoxicillin/clavulanic acid or macrolide antibiotics, despite applying a number of statistical approaches to control confounding. Thioacetazone was associated with increased treatment success (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.1–6.1) when matched controls were selected from studies in which the group 5 drugs were not used at all, although this result was heavily influenced by a single study.The development of more effective antibiotics to treat drug-resistant TB remains an urgent priority.

Summary Background The prevalence of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis is increasing due to the expanded use of second-line drugs in people with multidrug-resistant (MDR) disease. We prospectively assessed resistance to second-line antituberculosis drugs in eight countries. Methods From Jan 1, 2005, to Dec 31, 2008, we enrolled consecutive adults with locally confirmed pulmonary MDR tuberculosis at the start of second-line treatment in Estonia, Latvia, Peru, Philippines, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, and Thailand. Drug-susceptibility testing for study purposes was done centrally at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for 11 first-line and second-line drugs. We compared the results with clinical and epidemiological data to identify risk factors for resistance to second-line drugs and XDR tuberculosis. Findings Among 1278 patients, 43·7% showed resistance to at least one second-line drug, 20·0% to at least one second-line injectable drug, and 12·9% to at least one fluoroquinolone. 6·7% of patients had XDR tuberculosis (range across study sites 0·8–15·2%). Previous treatment with second-line drugs was consistently the strongest risk factor for resistance to these drugs, which increased the risk of XDR tuberculosis by more than four times. Fluoroquinolone resistance and XDR tuberculosis were more frequent in women than in men. Unemployment, alcohol abuse, and smoking were associated with resistance to second-line injectable drugs across countries. Other risk factors differed between drugs and countries. Interpretation Previous treatment with second-line drugs is a strong, consistent risk factor for resistance to these drugs, including XDR tuberculosis. Representative drug-susceptibility results could guide in-country policies for laboratory capacity and diagnostic strategies. Funding US Agency for International Development, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Korean Ministry of Health and Welfare.

Objective To identify predictors of initial sputum culture conversion, estimate the usefulness of persistent positive cultures at different time points in predicting treatment failure, and evaluate different definitions of culture conversion for predicting failure among patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in five countries, 2000-2004. Methods Predictors of time to conversion were identified using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression modeling. Receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted to visualize the effect of using different definitions of 'culture conversion' on the balance between sensitivity and specificity. Results Overall, 1209/1416 (85%) of patients with baseline positive cultures converted in a median of 3.0 months (interquartile range 2.0-5.0). Independent predictors of less likely conversion included baseline positive smear (hazard ratio [HR] 0.60, 95%CI 0.53-0.68), resistance to pyrazinamide (HR 0.82, 95%CI 0.70-0.96), fluoroquinolones (FQs; HR 0.65, 95%CI 0.51-0.83) or thioamide (HR 0.83, 95%CI 0.71-0.96), previous use of FQs (HR 0.71, 95%CI 0.60-0.83), poor outcome of previous anti-tuberculosis treatment (HR 0.69, 95%CI 0.54-0.88) and alcoholism (HR 0.74, 95%CI 0.63-0.87). The maximum combined sensitivity (84%) and specificity (94%) in predicting treatment failure was based on lack of culture conversion at month 9 of treatment, assuming conversion is defined as five consecutive negative cultures. Conclusion Patients with identified risk factors were less likely to achieve sputum culture conversion during MDR-TB treatment.

Multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) are associated with worse treatment outcomes for patients, including higher mortality, than for drug-sensitive tuberculosis. Delamanid (OPC-67683) is a novel anti-TB medication with demonstrated activity against multidrug-resistant disease. Patients who participated in the previously reported randomised, placebo-controlled trial of delamanid and the subsequent open-label extension trial were eligible to participate in a 24-month observational study designed to capture treatment outcomes. Treatment outcomes, as assessed by clinicians and defined by the World Health Organization, were categorised as favourable and unfavourable. Delamanid treatment groups were combined for analysis, based on their duration of treatment. In total, for 421 (87.5%) out of 481 patients from the original randomised controlled trial, consent was granted for follow-up assessments. Favourable outcomes were observed in 143 (74.5%) out of 192 patients who received delamanid for ≥6 months, compared to 126 (55%) out of 229 patients who received delamanid for ≤2 months. Mortality was reduced to 1.0% among those receiving long-term delamanid versus short-term/no delamanid (8.3%; p

The Objective of this analysis was to identify predictors of death, failure, and default among MDR-TB patients treated with second-line drugs in DOTS-plus projects in Estonia, Latvia, Philippines, Russia, and Peru, 2000-2004. Risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using multivariable regression. Of 1768 patients, treatment outcomes were: cure/completed - 1156 (65%), died - 200 (11%), default - 241 (14%), failure - 118 (7%). Independent predictors of death included: age>45 years (RR = 1.90 (95%CI 1.29-2.80), HIV infection (RR = 4.22 (2.65-6.72)), extrapulmonary disease (RR = 1.54 (1.04-2.26)), BMI

Monthly culture is usually recommended to monitor treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). As mycobacterial laboratory capacity is limited in many settings, TB programs need evidence to decide whether monthly cultures are necessary compared to other approaches. We simulated three alternative monitoring strategies (culture every 2 or 3 months, and monthly smears alone) in a cohort of MDR-TB patients in Estonia, Latvia, Philippines, Russia and Peru from 2000 to 2004. This retrospective analysis illustrated that less frequent testing delays confirmation of bacteriological conversion. This would prolong intensive treatment, hospitalization and respiratory isolation, increasing cost and toxicity. After conversion, less frequent testing could delay diagnosis of possible treatment failure.

BACKGROUND Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis programs in DOTS-Plus pilot sites in five countries. OBJECTIVES To calculate sputum conversion time and its relationship to treatment outcome, document the frequency of culture reversions and examine concordance of smear and culture to assess the potential consequences of monitoring by smear microscopy alone. DESIGN Retrospective cohort analysis of 1926 patients receiving individualized, second-line therapy. RESULTS Among 1385 sputum culture-positive cases at baseline, 1146 (83%) experienced at least one culture conversion during treatment. Conversion, however, was not sustained in all patients: 201 (15%) experienced initial culture conversion and at least one subsequent culture reversion to positive; 1064 (77%) achieved sustained culture conversion. Median time to culture conversion was 3 months. Among 206 patients whose nal conversion occurred 7-18 months after the initiation of therapy, 71% were cured or had completed treatment. CONCLUSIONS Prolonged treatment for patients with delayed conversion may be beneficial, as 71% of late converters still achieved cure or completed treatment. This has implications for programs with de ned end points for treatment failure. The interval between rst and nal conversion among patients whose initial con- version is not sustained raises concern with respect to the ongoing debate regarding duration of treatment and the definition of cure.

BACKGROUND Resistance to second-line drugs develops during treatment of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis, but the impact on treatment outcome has not been determined. METHODS Patients with MDR tuberculosis starting second-line drug treatment were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. Sputum cultures were analyzed at a central reference laboratory. We compared subjects with successful and poor treatment outcomes in terms of (1) initial and acquired resistance to fluoroquinolones and second-line injectable drugs (SLIs) and (2) treatment regimens. RESULTS Of 1244 patients with MDR tuberculosis, 973 (78.2%) had known outcomes and 232 (18.6%) were lost to follow-up. Among those with known outcomes, treatment succeeded in 85.8% with plain MDR tuberculosis, 69.7% with initial resistance to either a fluoroquinolone or an SLI, 37.5% with acquired resistance to a fluoroquinolone or SLI, 29.3% with initial and 13.0% with acquired extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (P < .001 for trend). In contrast, among those with known outcomes, treatment success increased stepwise from 41.6% to 92.3% as the number of drugs proven effective increased from ≤1 to ≥5 (P < .001 for trend), while acquired drug resistance decreased from 12% to 16% range, depending on the drug, down to 0%-2% (P < .001 for trend). In multivariable analysis, the adjusted odds of treatment success decreased 0.62-fold (95% confidence interval, .56-.69) for each increment in drug resistance and increased 2.1-fold (1.40-3.18) for each additional effective drug, controlling for differences between programs and patients. Specific treatment, patient, and program variables were also associated with treatment outcome. CONCLUSIONS Increasing drug resistance was associated in a logical stepwise manner with poor treatment outcomes. Acquired resistance was worse than initial resistance to the same drugs. Increasing numbers of effective drugs, specific drugs, and specific program characteristics were associated with better outcomes and less acquired resistance.

Summary Background Latvia has one of the highest rates of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB). Our aim was to assess treatment outcomes for the first full cohort of MDRTB patients treated under Latvia's DOTS-Plus strategy following WHO guidelines. Methods We retrospectively reviewed all civilian patients who began treatment with individualised treatment regimens for pulmonary MDRTB in Latvia between Jan 1, and Dec 31, 2000. We applied treatment outcome definitions for MDRTB, developed by an international expert consensus group, and assessed treatment effectiveness and risk factors associated with poor outcome. Findings Of the 204 patients assessed, 55 (27%) had been newly diagnosed with MDRTB, and 149 (73%) had earlier been treated with first-line or second-line drugs for this disease. Assessment of treatment outcomes showed that 135 (66%) patients were cured or completed therapy, 14 (7%) died, 26 (13%) defaulted, and treatment failed in 29 (14%). Of the 178 adherent patients, 135 (76%) achieved cure or treatment completion. In a multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model of these patients, independent predictors of poor outcome (death and treatment failure) included having previously received treatment for MDRTB (hazard ratio 5·7, 95% CI 1·9–16·6), the use of five or fewer drugs for 3 months or more (3·2, 1·1–9·6), resistance to ofloxacin (2·6, 1·2–5·4), and body-mass index less than 18·5 at start of treatment (2·3, 1·1–4·9). Interpretation The DOTS-Plus strategy of identifying and treating patients with MDRTB can be effectively implemented on a nationwide scale in a setting of limited resources.

Sputum culture conversion is often used as an early microbiological endpoint in phase 2 clinical trials of tuberculosis treatment on the basis of its assumed predictive value for end-of-treatment outcome, particularly in patients with drug-susceptible tuberculosis. We aimed to assess the validity of sputum culture conversion on solid media at varying timepoints, and the time to conversion, as prognostic markers for end-of-treatment outcome in patients with multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis.We analysed data from two large cohort studies of patients with MDR tuberculosis. We defined sputum culture conversion as two or more consecutive negative cultures from sputum samples obtained at least 30 days apart. To estimate the association of 2 month and 6 month conversion with successful treatment outcome, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs with random-effects multivariable logistic regression. We calculated predictive values with bivariate random-effects generalised linear mixed modelling.We assessed data for 1712 patients who had treatment success, treatment failure, or who died. Among patients with treatment success, median time to sputum culture conversion was significantly shorter than in those who had poor outcomes (2 months [IQR 1-3] vs 7 months [3 to ≥24]; log-rank p0·0001). Furthermore, conversion status at 6 months (adjusted OR 14·07 [95% CI 10·05-19·71]) was significantly associated with treatment success compared with failure or death. Sputum culture conversion status at 2 months was significantly associated with treatment success only in patients who were HIV negative (adjusted OR 4·12 [95% CI 2·25-7·54]) or who had unknown HIV infection (3·59 [1·96-6·58]), but not in those who were HIV positive (0·38 [0·12-1·18]). Thus, the overall association of sputum culture conversion with a successful outcome was substantially greater at 6 months than at 2 months. 2 month conversion had low sensitivity (27·3% [95% confidence limit 16·6-41·4]) and high specificity (89·8% [82·3-94·4]) for prediction of treatment success. Conversely, 6 month sputum culture conversion status had high sensitivity (91·8% [85·9-95·4]), but moderate specificity (57·8% [42·5-71·6]). The maximum combined sensitivity and specificity for sputum culture conversion was reached between month 6 and month 10 of treatment.Time to sputum culture conversion, conversion status at 6 months, and conversion status at 2 months in patients without known HIV infection can be considered as proxy markers of end-of-treatment outcome in patients with MDR tuberculosis, although the overall association with treatment success is substantially stronger for 6 month than for 2 month conversion status. Investigators should consider these results regarding the validity of sputum culture conversion at various timepoints as an early predictor of treatment efficacy when designing phase 2 studies before investing substantial resources in large, long-term, phase 3 trials of new treatments for MDR tuberculosis.US Agency for International Development, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Intramural Research of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

To improve multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) detection, we successfully introduced the rpoB gene mutation line probe assay into the national laboratory in Latvia, a country with epidemic MDR-TB. The assay detected rifampin resistance with 91% sensitivity and 96% specificity within 1 to 5 days (vs. 12–47 days for BACTEC).

Setting In Latvia, 11% of tuberculosis (TB) patients have multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB). The INNO-LiPA Rif.TB ® line-probe assay (LPA) detects rifampin (RMP) resistance and may accelerate the time to effective MDRTB treatment. Objective To determine the impact of LPA on time to diagnosis, initiation of treatment, sputum culture conversion and treatment outcome. Design From October 2004 to September 2006, we performed LPA and drug susceptibility testing (DST) using BACTEC and Lowenstein-Jensen (LJ) media among all individuals at risk for MDR-TB compared to a 2003 cohort of 48 MDR-TB patients detected by BACTEC. Results In a total of 107 sputum smear-positive individuals at risk for MDR-TB, Mycobacterium tuberculosis was isolated from 85; 23 were RMP-resistant on LJ compared to 22 on LPA (96% sensitivity). There was a significant difference in the mean time between specimen collection and LPA result (10.0 days) and BACTEC DST result (17.0 days, P = 0.0005) in the LPA cohort. The LPA cohort achieved culture conversion a median of 105 days after treatment initiation vs. a median of 88.5 days (P = 0.54) in the BACTEC cohort. There was no difference in the proportion achieving culture conversion (P = 0.54) or in treatment outcome ( P = 0.65). Conclusion LPA accelerated empiric treatment, but did not reduce the time to culture conversion or improve the rate of culture conversion or treatment outcome.

The production of guidelines for the management of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) fits the mandate of the World Health Organization (WHO) to support countries in the reinforcement of patient care. WHO commissioned external reviews to summarise evidence on priority questions regarding case-finding, treatment regimens for multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB), monitoring the response to MDR-TB treatment, and models of care. A multidisciplinary expert panel used the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach to develop recommendations. The recommendations support the wider use of rapid drug susceptibility testing for isoniazid and rifampicin or rifampicin alone using molecular techniques. Monitoring by sputum culture is important for early detection of failure during treatment. Regimens lasting ≥ 20 months and containing pyrazinamide, a fluoroquinolone, a second-line injectable drug, ethionamide (or prothionamide), and either cycloserine or p-aminosalicylic acid are recommended. The guidelines promote the early use of antiretroviral agents for TB patients with HIV on second-line drug regimens. Systems that primarily employ ambulatory models of care are recommended over others based mainly on hospitalisation. Scientific and medical associations should promote the recommendations among practitioners and public health decision makers involved in MDR-TB care. Controlled trials are needed to improve the quality of existing evidence, particularly on the optimal composition and duration of MDR-TB treatment regimens.

SUMMARYDespite the adoption of strategies to prevent and treat multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) over the past decade, Latvia continues to have one of the highest rates of MDR-TB in the world. It is important to identify modifiable factors that may impact on MDR-TB patient outcomes. A study was conducted to elucidate the association between nutritional status and clinical presentation, clinical course, and mortality in 995 adult patients treated for MDR-TB from 2000 to 2004. Twenty percent of patients were underweight, defined as a body mass index

In the present study, we characterised drug-resistance patterns, compared treatment outcome between extensively and nonextensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (non-XDR-TB) cases, and assessed risk factors for poor outcome in a high-prevalence country that screens all TB patients for first-line anti-TB drug resistance. We reviewed drug susceptibility test results among all pulmonary TB cases in Latvia diagnosed from 2000–2004, as well as demographic and clinical characteristics, drug-resistance patterns, and treatment outcomes. During the 5-yr period, 1,027 multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) cases initiated treatment. Among all cases, the proportion that experienced an outcome of cure or completion increased from 66.2 to 70.2% (p = 0.06 for linear trend). Among the 48 (4.7%) XDR-TB cases, 18 (38%) were cured, four (8%) died, three (6%) defaulted, and treatment failed in 23 (48%). In proportional-hazards analysis, characteristics significantly associated with poor outcome included XDR-TB, being retired, presence of bilateral cavitation, and previous MDR-TB treatment history for those aged ≥55 yrs. Overall, treatment success among all MDR-TB cases increased over time. Strategies to prevent transmission of XDR-TB and to further improve treatment outcome are crucial for the future of TB control in Latvia.

Background For treating multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB), the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a regimen of at least four second-line drugs that are likely to be effective as well as pyrazinamide. WHO guidelines indicate only marginal benefit for regimens based directly on drug susceptibility testing (DST) results. Recent evidence from isolated cohorts suggests that regimens containing more drugs may be beneficial, and that DST results are predictive of regimen effectiveness. The objective of our study was to gain insight into how regimen design affects treatment response by analyzing the association between time to sputum culture conversion and both the number of potentially effective drugs included in a regimen and the DST results of the drugs in the regimen. Methods and Findings We analyzed data from the Preserving Effective Tuberculosis Treatment Study (PETTS), a prospective observational study of 1,659 adults treated for MDR TB during 2005–2010 in nine countries: Estonia, Latvia, Peru, Philippines, Russian Federation, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan. For all patients, monthly sputum samples were collected, and DST was performed on baseline isolates at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We included 1,137 patients in our analysis based on their having known baseline DST results for at least fluoroquinolones and second-line injectable drugs, and not having extensively drug-resistant TB. These patients were followed for a median of 20 mo (interquartile range 16–23 mo) after MDR TB treatment initiation. The primary outcome of interest was initial sputum culture conversion. We used Cox proportional hazards regression, stratifying by country to control for setting-associated confounders, and adjusting for the number of drugs to which patients’ baseline isolates were resistant, baseline resistance pattern, previous treatment history, sputum smear result, and extent of disease on chest radiograph. In multivariable analysis, receiving an average of at least six potentially effective drugs (defined as drugs without a DST result indicating resistance) per day was associated with a 36% greater likelihood of sputum culture conversion than receiving an average of at least five but fewer than six potentially effective drugs per day (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.36, 95% CI 1.09–1.69). Inclusion of pyrazinamide (aHR 2.00, 95% CI 1.65–2.41) or more drugs to which baseline DST indicated susceptibility (aHR 1.65, 95% CI 1.48–1.84, per drug) in regimens was associated with greater increases in the likelihood of sputum culture conversion than including more drugs to which baseline DST indicated resistance (aHR 1.33, 95% CI 1.18–1.51, per drug). Including in the regimen more drugs for which DST was not performed was beneficial only if a minimum of three effective drugs was present in the regimen (aHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.09–1.76, per drug when three effective drugs present in regimen). The main limitation of this analysis is that it is based on observational data, not a randomized trial, and drug regimens varied across sites. However, PETTS was a uniquely large and rigorous observational study in terms of both the number of patients enrolled and the standardization of laboratory testing. Other limitations include the assumption of equivalent efficacy across drugs in a category, incomplete data on adherence, and the fact that the analysis considers only initial sputum culture conversion, not reversion or long-term relapse. Conclusions MDR TB regimens including more potentially effective drugs than the minimum of five currently recommended by WHO may encourage improved response to treatment in patients with MDR TB. Rapid access to high-quality DST results could facilitate the design of more effective individualized regimens. Randomized controlled trials are necessary to confirm whether individualized regimens with more than five drugs can indeed achieve better cure rates than current recommended regimens., In this prospective cohort study, Courtney Yuen and colleagues examine the association between regimen composition and treatment response in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis., Editors' Summary Background Tuberculosis (TB)—a contagious bacterial disease that usually infects the lungs—is a global public health problem. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that, in 2014, about 9.6 million people developed TB and 1.5 million people died from the disease. Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the organism that causes TB, is spread in airborne droplets when people with TB cough. The symptoms of TB include persistent cough, fever, and weight loss; diagnostic tests for TB include the culture (growth) of M. tuberculosis from sputum samples (mucus coughed up from the lungs) and chest X-rays. TB can be cured by taking several antibiotics (including rifampicin and isoniazid) every day for six months. However, the emergence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB; TB with resistance to at least both rifampicin and isoniazid) and extensively drug-resistant TB (MDR TB with additional resistance to at least quinolones and to second-line injectable antibiotics) is now threatening TB control efforts—about 5% of the cases of TB that occurred in 2014 were caused by MDR TB. Why Was This Study Done? WHO guidelines for the treatment of MDR TB recommend a regimen that includes pyrazinamide and at least four second-line drugs (amikacin or other second-line injectable drugs and fluoroquinolones such as ofloxacin) that are likely to be effective. When bacterial drug susceptibility testing (DST) is not available, determination of the likely effectiveness of drugs is based on patients’ previous exposure to antibiotics and the background drug resistance levels in the community. Although the guidelines state that regimens based on DST results are only marginally more effective than regimens determined without such results, recent evidence suggests that DST results predict regimen effectiveness and that regimens containing more drugs than currently recommended by the guidelines might be beneficial. Here, the researchers undertake a prospective cohort study (an observational study that compares outcomes in non-randomized groups of patients given different treatments) to gain insights into how regimen design affects treatment response among people with MDR TB. Specifically, the researchers analyze the association between both the number of potentially effective drugs included in a regimen and the DST results of the drugs in the regimen and the time to sputum culture conversion (the time between treatment initiation and having two consecutive negative sputum cultures). What Did the Researchers Do and Find? The researchers used a statistical approach called multivariable analysis to analyze data (including baseline DST results and information on the time to sputum culture conversion) collected from 1,137 adults with MDR TB who participated in the Preserving Effective Tuberculosis Treatment Study (PETTS). Receiving an average of at least six potentially effective drugs per day (drugs without a baseline DST result indicating resistance) was associated with a 36% greater likelihood of sputum culture conversion than receiving an average of at least five but fewer than six potentially effective drugs per day. Inclusion of more drugs to which baseline DST results indicated susceptibility was associated with a 65% higher likelihood of sputum culture conversion per drug, and inclusion of pyrazinamide was associated with a doubling of the likelihood of sputum culture conversion, Inclusion of more drugs to which baseline DST results indicated resistance was associated with only a 33% higher likelihood of sputum culture conversion per drug. Finally, inclusion of more drugs for which DST had not been performed was beneficial only if the regimen already contained a minimum of three likely effective drugs. What Do These Findings Mean? These findings suggest that regimens that include more potentially effective drugs than currently recommended by WHO might improve the response of patients with MDR TB to treatment. In addition, these findings suggest that rapid access to high-quality DST results could facilitate the design of more effective individualized regimens. However, because this study was based on observational data, these findings do not prove that increasing the number of drugs in treatment regimens or basing drug choice on DST results improves outcomes. It is possible that all the patients who received a particular treatment shared an unknown, non-drug-related characteristic that was actually responsible for their response to treatment. Additionally, the authors were not able to assess the effects of individual drugs, and the analysis assumed equivalent efficacy for all drugs in a particular category, which may not be true in reality. The authors also did not have data on adherence or long-term follow-up to assess relapse or sputum culture reversion. Thus, although these findings suggest that changes to the current WHO guidelines for the treatment of MDR TB might be beneficial, randomized controlled trials should be undertaken first to confirm whether individualized regimens that include more than five drugs can achieve better cure rates than the currently recommended regimens. Additional Information This list of resources contains links that can be accessed when viewing the PDF on a device or via the online version of the article at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001932. The World Health Organization (WHO) provides information (in several languages) on tuberculosis and on multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (in several languages); its Guidelines for the Programmatic Management of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis: 2011 Update and the Global Tuberculosis Report 2015, which provides up-to-date information about tuberculosis around the world, are available The Stop TB Partnership is working towards tuberculosis elimination and provides personal stories about tuberculosis (in English and Spanish) The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provides information about tuberculosis and about drug-resistant tuberculosis (in English and Spanish), including a brief description of PETTS The US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases also has detailed information on tuberculosis, including a drug-resistant tuberculosis visual tour TB & Me, a collaborative blogging project run by patients being treated for MDR TB and Médecins Sans Frontières, provides more patient stories MedlinePlus has links to further information about tuberculosis (in English and Spanish)

Background A challenge to effective protection against tuberculosis is to sustain expensive and complex treatment public programs. Potential consequences of program failure include acquired drug resistance, poor patient outcomes, and potentially much higher system costs, however. In contrast, effective efforts have value illustrated by impacts they prevent. We compared the healthcare costs and treatment outcomes among multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and non MDR-TB patients in Latvia to identify benefits or costs associated with both. Methods We measured and compared costs, healthcare utilization, and outcomes for patients who began treatment through Latvia’s TB control program in 2002 using multivariate regression analysis and negative binomial regression. Results We analyzed data for 92 MDR-TB and 54 non MDR-TB patients. Most (67%) MDR-TB patients had history of prior tuberculosis treatment. MDR-TB was associated with lower cure rates (71% vs. 91%) and greater resource utilization. MDR-TB treatment cost almost $20,000 more than non MDR-TB. Conclusion Up to 2/3 of MDR-TB treated in our sample was preventable at a potential savings of over $1.3 million in healthcare resources as well as substantial individual health.

Background: Conversion of sputum mycobacterial cultures from positive growth to negative growth of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) is considered the most important interim indicator of the efficacy of anti-TB pharmacologic treatment for multidrug-resistant disease. Objective: To evaluate and compare time to and predictors of initial sputum culture conversion with predictors of treatment outcome for patients with multidrug-resistant TB. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Latvia. Patients: All civilian patients with multidrug-resistant TB treated with the DOTS-Plus strategy between 1 January and 31 December 2000. Intervention: Individualized treatment for confirmed sputum culture–positive pulmonary multidrug-resistant TB. Measurements: Time to initial sputum culture conversion and treatment outcome. Results: Among 167 patients who were sputum culture–positive at initiation of second-line therapy, 129 (77%) converted in a median time of 60 days (range, 4 to 462 days) and 38 (23%) did not convert. Independent predictors of a longer sputum culture conversion time, using an accelerated failure time regression model, included previous treatment for multidrug-resistant TB, high initial sputum culture colony count, bilateral cavitations on chest radiography, and the number of drugs the initial isolate was resistant to at treatment initiation. Treatment outcomes were statistically significantly worse for patients who did not convert their sputum culture within 2 months. Limitations: Twenty-five percent of patients missed 5 or more monthly sputum collections. Conclusions: Under program conditions in Latvia, most patients with multidrug-resistant TB achieved sputum culture conversion within 12 weeks of starting treatment. Chest radiography and sputum culture drug susceptibility testing can assist physicians in predicting which patients will convert more slowly. Sputum culture conversion is a useful and appropriate interim indicator of treatment outcome in patients with multidrug-resistant TB.