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Climate models can produce accurate representations of the most important modes of climate variability, but they cannot be expected to follow their observed time evolution. This makes direct comparison of simulated and observed variability difficult and creates uncertainty in estimates of forced change. We investigate the role of three modes of climate variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode, as pacemakers of climate variability since 1781, evaluating where their evolution masks or enhances forced climate trends. We use particle filter data assimilation to constrain the observed variability in a global climate model without nudging, producing a near-free-running model simulation with the time evolution of these modes similar to those observed. Since the climate model also contains external forcings, these simulations, in combination with model experiments with identical forcing but no assimilation, can be used to compare the forced response to the effect of the three modes assimilated and evaluate the extent to which these are confounded with the forced response. The assimilated model is significantly closer than the “forcing only” simulations to annual temperature and precipitation observations over many regions, in particular the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe. The results indicate where initialised simulations that track these modes could be expected to show additional skill. Assimilating the three modes cannot explain the large discrepancy previously found between observed and modelled variability in the southern extra-tropics but constraining the El Niño–Southern Oscillation reconciles simulated global cooling with that observed after volcanic eruptions.

Metagenomic assembly enables new organism discovery from microbial communities, but it can only capture few abundant organisms from most metagenomes. Here we present MetaPhlAn 4, which integrates information from metagenome assemblies and microbial isolate genomes for more comprehensive metagenomic taxonomic profiling. From a curated collection of 1.01 M prokaryotic reference and metagenome-assembled genomes, we define unique marker genes for 26,970 species-level genome bins, 4,992 of them taxonomically unidentified at the species level. MetaPhlAn 4 explains ~20% more reads in most international human gut microbiomes and >40% in less-characterized environments such as the rumen microbiome and proves more accurate than available alternatives on synthetic evaluations while also reliably quantifying organisms with no cultured isolates. Application of the method to >24,500 metagenomes highlights previously undetected species to be strong biomarkers for host conditions and lifestyles in human and mouse microbiomes and shows that even previously uncharacterized species can be genetically profiled at the resolution of single microbial strains.

‘Jamais vu’ is a strange mnemonic disturbance that we continue to experience today, though few of us know what to call it. French for ‘never seen,’ jamais vu is the opposite of déjà vu (‘already seen’), and is defined as the temporary inability to recognize familiar things, people, and/or contexts. This essay comprises, to my knowledge, the first literary history of jamais vu. I begin by describing the complex features of this mnemonic disturbance, and uncovering its lost Victorian scientific archive. Though jamais vu went without a name until the 1920s, I also find it hiding in plain sight in nineteenth-century novels as early as Jane Austen’s Mansfield Park, as well as in the work of Charles Dickens, William Makepeace Thackeray, George Eliot, and Elizabeth Gaskell. From here, I follow jamais vu’s trajectory from realist accounts of everyday life into mid-century representations of the haunted house, where it becomes something more than a mnemonic disturbance. By attending to literary representations of jamais vu avant la lettre, I demonstrate its importance not just as a lost Victorian scientific concept, but also as a rich interdisciplinary category that is of great interest to scholars of the nineteenth century and beyond. Specifically, I show that jamais vu was integral to the development and popularity of the Victorian gothic, through which movement it exceeded its status as a mnemonic disturbance, re-emerging as a pervasive modern affect that we have inherited from the Victorians.

Human-induced thermodynamic effects have declined the likelihood of April 2020-like cold spells over Northeast China by ~ 80%, but such events tend to be triggered by more intense dynamical factors.

Change in climate extremes and the increased risk associated with human-induced global warming is apparent. Less apparent is the impact such changes may have on vulnerable systems in our society. Climate change impact assessments using state-of-the-art climate models coupled with damage information can offer actionable insight for stakeholders to better protect vulnerable systems.Cultural heritage is an example of a system that is vulnerable to climate change, especially built cultural heritage which is directly exposed to changing climate extremes. In the UK, significant development has been achieved to better understand the potential change in climate extremes following the release of UK Climate Projections 18 (UKCP18), however, understanding of risk posed by these climate extremes to built cultural heritage is poorly constrained. How to assess and quantify this risk is in its infancy.We have developed a new methodology building on previous work by cultural heritage experts - the Cultural Heritage Climate Risk Assessment (CHCRA) framework. The CHCRA framework focuses on combining stakeholder engagement and high-resolution climate models to develop site-specific projections of potential damage to cultural heritage assets. This integrated framework when applied with adequate information allows estimation of expected damages to cultural heritage assets through the 21st century.We applied the CHCRCA framework to cultural heritage buildings in the Edinburgh World Heritage Site, Scotland, considering one-day extreme rainfall events. This pilot study used UKCP18 2.2 km resolution climate projections alongside qualitative and quantitative damage data obtained from multiple sources.Importantly, UKCP18 2.2 km model is a Convection Permitting Climate Model with the ability to better represent extreme rainfall events. Furthermore, expert elicitation through interviews with practitioners from cultural heritage organisations within Edinburgh were carried out to obtain damage information specific to cultural heritage buildings in the Old and New Town Edinburgh (ONTE), part of the Edinburgh World Heritage Site. A damage function was derived based on expert elicitation and other sources.Key findings include annual expected damage per year increases from 0.6% in the baseline period (1981-2000) to 1.5% in 2021-40 and 2.3% in 2061-80. A three-to-four-fold increase in annual expected damage to cultural heritage buildings in the ONTE is expected towards the end of the 21st century.This is the first application of the CHCRA framework. This pilot study considered only one climate stressor, extreme one-day rainfall events. Damage at built cultural heritage is likely exacerbated and accelerated by other climate stressors, as well as non-climate related factors such as poor maintenance. Furthermore, damage caused by pluvial and/or fluvial flooding mechanisms were not taken into consideration, as well as no consideration given to reduction in risk due to adaptive measures.This study provided insight into the changing risk posed by an impactful climate stressor to cultural heritage buildings in the ONTE. The study highlights the importance of stakeholder engagement from the outset when carrying out a climate change impact assessment. Further work may benefit from considering a more wide-ranging array of climate stressors to capture synergistic damage processes.

The State of São Paulo, Brazil (SSP) was impacted by severe water shortages during the intense austral summer drought of 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 (1415SD). This study seeks to understand the features and physical processes associated with these summer droughts in the context of other droughts over the region during 1961 – 2010. Thus, this study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of anomalously low precipitation over SSP and the associated large-scale dynamics at seasonal timescales, using an observation-based dataset from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and model simulation outputs from the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM3-GA6 at N216 resolution). The study analyzes Historical and Natural simulations from the model to examine the role of human-induced climate forcing on droughts over SSP. Composites of large-scale fields associated with droughts are derived from ERA-20C and ERAInterim reanalysis and the model simulations. HadGEM3-GA6 simulations capture the observed interannual variability of normalized precipitation anomalies over SSP, but with biases. Drought events over SSP are related to subsidence over the region. This is associated with reduced atmospheric moisture over the region as indicated by the analysis of the vertically integrated moisture flux convergence, which is dominated by reduced moisture flux convergence. The Historical simulations simulate the subsidence associated with droughts, but there are magnitude and location biases. The similarities between the circulation features of the severe 1415SD and other drought events over the region show that understanding of the dynamics of the past drought events over SSP could guide assessment of changes in risk of future droughts and improvements of model performance. In the model world, a modest human influence for the 2014/15 SSP meteorological drought is found. The study highlights the merits and limitations of the HadGEM3GA6 simulations. The model possesses the skills in simulating the large-scale atmospheric circulations modulating precipitation variability, leading to drought conditions over SSP.

This article investigates if health inequalities can be reduced using popular education (PE) methods. It argues that, although ill health may be experienced as a private trouble, it is embedded in broader social and political processes and should be seen as a public issue. It illuminates this concept of health by using student writings from the Health Issues in the Community (HIIC) project. These writings illustrate the impact of unemployment, lack of facilities, food poverty etc. on people’s physical and mental health and the action they have taken to challenge and reduce these inequalities. It is argued that PE contributes to human flourishing, but the educator must resist the power they have to steer students in particular directions. It concludes that whilst PE cannot abolish health inequalities, HIIC participants have taken small steps to change existing realities and so have challenged oppressive social relations.

This study of nine Primary School teachers of Religious Education (RE) analyses the benefits of their engagement in practitioner research (PR) and shows how that engagement can be sustained. We dem...

BACKGROUND Bayesian forecasting-based limited sampling strategies (LSSs) for tacrolimus have not been evaluated for the prediction of subsequent tacrolimus exposure. This study examined the predictive performance of Bayesian forecasting programs/services for the estimation of future tacrolimus area under the curve (AUC) from 0 to 12 hours (AUC0-12) in kidney transplant recipients. METHODS Tacrolimus concentrations were measured in 20 adult kidney transplant recipients, 1 month post-transplant, on 2 occasions one week apart. Twelve samples were taken predose and 13 samples were taken postdose at the specified times on the first and second sampling occasions, respectively. The predicted AUC0-12 (AUCpredicted) was estimated using Bayesian forecasting programs/services and data from both sampling occasions for each patient and compared with the fully measured AUC0-12 (AUCmeasured) calculated using the linear trapezoidal rule on the second sampling occasion. The bias (median percentage prediction error [MPPE]) and imprecision (median absolute prediction error [MAPE]) were determined. RESULTS Three programs/services were evaluated using different LSSs (C0; C0, C1, C3; C0, C1, C2, C4; and all available concentrations). MPPE and MAPE for the prediction of fully measured AUC0-12 were

Abstract. After nearly two decades of awareness on the research–practice gap in human resource management, this study updates and expands on the seminal findings of Rynes et al. (2002) specific to personnel selection. In a sample of 453 human resource (HR) practitioners in the US and Canada, we found that the research–practice gap persists. Notably, compared to the 2002 findings, HR practitioners tended to be worse at identifying personnel selection myths than was shown by Rynes et al. over 15 years ago, while those who reported not conducting validity studies were surprisingly better at identifying several myths as false. Several potential avenues for advancement are suggested in light of the disturbing stubbornness of the research–practice gap in personnel selection.

Metagenomic assembly enables novel organism discovery from microbial communities, but from most metagenomes it can only capture few abundant organisms. Here, we present a method - MetaPhlAn 4 - to integrate information from both metagenome assemblies and microbial isolate genomes for improved and more comprehensive metagenomic taxonomic profiling. From a curated collection of 1.01M prokaryotic reference and metagenome-assembled genomes, we defined unique marker genes for 26,970 species-level genome bins, 4,992 of them taxonomically unidentified at the species level. MetaPhlAn 4 explains ∼20% more reads in most international human gut microbiomes and >40% in less-characterized environments such as the rumen microbiome, and proved more accurate than available alternatives on synthetic evaluations while also reliably quantifying organisms with no cultured isolates. Application of the method to >24,500 metagenomes highlighted previously undetected species to be strong biomarkers for host conditions and lifestyles in human and mice microbiomes, and showed that even previously uncharacterized species can be genetically profiled at the resolution of single microbial strains. MetaPhlAn 4 thus integrates the novelty of metagenomic assemblies with the sensitivity and fidelity of reference-based analyses, providing efficient metagenomic profiling of uncharacterized species and enabling deeper and more comprehensive microbiome biomarker detection.

Climate models can produce accurate representations of the most important modes of climate variability, but they cannot be expected to follow their observed time-evolution. This makes direct comparison of simulated and observed variability difficult, and creates uncertainty in estimates of forced change. We investigate the role of three modes of climate variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El-Niño Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode, as pacemakers of climate variability since 1781, evaluating where their evolution masks or enhances forced climate trends. We use particle filter data assimilation to constrain the observed variability in a global climate model without nudging, producing a near free running model simulation with the time-evolution of these modes similar to those observed. Since the climate model also contains external forcings, these simulations, in combination with model experiments with identical forcing but no assimilation, can be used to compare the forced response to the effect of the three modes assimilated, and evaluate to what extent these are confounded with the forced response. The assimilated model is significantly closer than the “forcing only” simulations to annual temperature and precipitation observations over many regions, in particular the tropics, the north Atlantic and Europe. The results indicate where initialized simulations that track these modes could be expected to show additional skill. Assimilating the three modes cannot explain the large discrepancy previously found between observed and modelled variability in the southern extra-tropics but constraining the El-Niño Southern Oscillation reconciles simulated global cooling with that observed after volcanic eruptions.

This paper investigates the influence of a professional Religious Education (RE) conference on a small group of English Primary teachers’ emerging identities as teacher-researchers. It is framed by...

Extending interactionist principles and targeting situational specificity of trait–performance linkages, trait activation theory (TAT) posits personality traits are expressed as valued work behavior in response to trait-relevant situational cues, subject to constraints and other factors, all operating at the task, social, and organizational levels. Review of 99 key sources citing TAT spanning 2011–2019 reveals diverse applications (e.g., bidirectionality, trait specificity, team building) and an overall 60% significance rate for 262 TAT-based moderator effects reported in 60 of 75 empirical studies. Applying five key aspects of TAT (e.g., behavior/performance distinction, need-based motivation) to five lines of personality dynamics research (e.g., personality states, self-regulation models of motivation) supports TAT as a vehicle for advancing understanding of within-person variability over brief and extended timelines. Critical research needs include personality-oriented work analysis, longitudinal study of trait-situation processes, trait activation in teams, within-job bidirectionality, and situation relevance as a unifying principle in advancing person–workplace fit.

The gut microbiome is shaped by diet and influences host metabolism; however, these links are complex and can be unique to each individual. We performed deep metagenomic sequencing of 1,203 gut microbiomes from 1,098 individuals enrolled in the Personalised Responses to Dietary Composition Trial (PREDICT 1) study, whose detailed long-term diet information, as well as hundreds of fasting and same-meal postprandial cardiometabolic blood marker measurements were available. We found many significant associations between microbes and specific nutrients, foods, food groups and general dietary indices, which were driven especially by the presence and diversity of healthy and plant-based foods. Microbial biomarkers of obesity were reproducible across external publicly available cohorts and in agreement with circulating blood metabolites that are indicators of cardiovascular disease risk. While some microbes, such as Prevotella copri and Blastocystis spp., were indicators of favorable postprandial glucose metabolism, overall microbiome composition was predictive for a large panel of cardiometabolic blood markers including fasting and postprandial glycemic, lipemic and inflammatory indices. The panel of intestinal species associated with healthy dietary habits overlapped with those associated with favorable cardiometabolic and postprandial markers, indicating that our large-scale resource can potentially stratify the gut microbiome into generalizable health levels in individuals without clinically manifest disease.

Anthropogenic forcing reduced the probability of rainfall amount in the extended rainy winter of 2018/19 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China, by ~19%, but exerted no influence on the excessive rainy days, based on HadGEM3-GA6-N216 ensembles. Instead the natural variability played a large and important role in this event.

Prominent standards/guidelines concerning test validation provide contradictory information about whether content-based evidence should be used as a means of validating personality test inferences for employee selection. This unresolved discrepancy is problematic considering the prevalence of personality testing, the importance of gathering sound validity evidence, and the deference given to these standards/guidelines in contemporary employee selection practice. As a consequence, test users and practitioners are likely to be reticent or uncertain about gathering content-based evidence for personality measures, which, in turn, may cause such evidence to be underutilized when personality testing is of interest. The current investigation critically examines whether (and how) content validity evidence should be used for measures of personality in relation to employee selection. The ensuing discussion, which is especially relevant in highly litigious contexts such as personnel selection in the public sector, sheds new light on test validation practices.

Paul Tett was partly funded by H2020 project no. 774426, ‘The Blue Growth Farm’. This paper examines marine planning in Scotland and the extent to which it constrains or enables change towards adaptive governance. An in-depth case study of the partnership-based regional marine planning process is presented, based on interviews and documentary analysis. Drawing on adaptive governance theory, analysis focussed on key themes of: (1) local governance and integration across scales; (2) participation and collaboration; (3) learning, innovation and adaptability; and (4) self-organisation. Results present regional marine planning as an interface between hierarchical and collaborative governance based on empowerment of regional actors, and an attempt to enable co-existence of ‘top-down’ arrangements with experimentation at smaller scales. In this system, national government provides legal legitimacy, economic incentives and policy oversight; while the partnerships support collaboration and innovation at the regional level, based on strong leadership and participation. Contrasting experience of partnership-working is evident between the large and complex region of the Clyde and the island region of Shetland, where devolved powers and a more cohesive and community-based stakeholder group better facilitate adaptive governance. Overall findings of the study show the tensions of institutionalising adaptive governance and provide insights into how marine planning contributes to governance of marine systems. Firstly, vertical integration between central and decentralised authority in multi-level marine planning arrangements is challenged by an unclear balance of power and accountability between national government and regional marine planning partnerships. Secondly, the interaction between marine planning and existing policy, planning and management emerged as critical, because marine plans may only operate as an instrument to ‘guide’ management and prevailing, limited adaptive capacity in broader management structures constrains adaptive outcomes. Lastly, adaptive governance requires incremental and rapid response to change, but limited financial and technical resources constrain the depth and scale of reflection and ability to act. Understanding the contribution of marine planning requires clarification of the interaction between marine planning and other management (the extent to which it can influence decision-making in other domains) and, in addressing governance deficiencies, attention is also required on the adaptive capacity of existing and emerging legislative frameworks which govern decision-making and management of activities at sea. Publisher PDF

Using the 20-year-old climate model, HadCM3, we show that it is possible to calibrate the model to multiple observations by algorithmically changing parameters in the atmospheric model. Fourteen atmospheric parameters were modified using a state-of-the-art derivative free optimization algorithm (DFOLS). The calibration reduces model-observational difference against hemispheric scale averages of multiple observations for the 2001-2005 period and used about 90 evaluations of the atmospheric model. The observations considered were outgoing longwave and shortwave radiation, land temperature and precipitation, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric temperature and humidity, and global-average net flux into the Earth system. A 5-member ensemble was generated by starting the calibration from different initial parameter sets.The calibrated model simulated large scale observations better than almost all CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble. Spatial patterns of variables from the calibrated ensemble except for outgoing SW, land precipitation and mid-tropospheric humidity are as well simulated as in the CMIP6 ensemble. For these variables, spatial patterns are as well simulated as the CMIP5 ensemble. In the calibrated ensemble, uncertainty in effective climate sensitivity (ECS; relative error of 10%) and the transient climate response (TCR; relative error of 5%) is small. This is the case for the response at doubling and quadrupling of CO2 concentrations. Uncertainties in regional climate change are also small.A linear analysis which combines observational uncertainty with the Jacobian of observational sensitivity with respect to parameter change gives a parameter covariance matrix. This is in turn can be combined with the Jacobian of climate response with respect to parameter to give a linear estimate of uncertainty in climate response. The linear uncertainty is similar to the ensemble uncertainty. By increasing individual observational uncertainty in the linear analysis, it is possible to see which observations are providing the constraints in transient climate response at 4 times CO2. This analysis finds that almost all the constraint comes from land precipitation, outgoing SW radiation and the net flux, suggesting these are key observations to constrain climate model behaviour.

Applicant faking poses serious threats to achieving personality-based fit, negatively affecting both the worker and the organization. In articulating this “faking-is-bad” (FIB) position, Tett and Simonet (2021) identify Marcus’ (2009) self-presentation theory (SPT) as representative of the contrarian “faking-is-good” camp by its advancement of self-presentation as beneficial in hiring contexts. In this rejoinder, we address 20 of Marcus’ (2021) claims in highlighting his reliance on an outdated empiricist rendering of validity, loosely justified rejection of the negative and moralistic “faking” label, disregard for the many challenges posed by blatant forms of faking, inattention to faking research supporting the FIB position, indefensibly ambiguous constructs, and deep misunderstanding of person–workplace fit based on personality assessment. In demonstrating these and other limitations of Marcus’ critique, we firmly uphold the FIB position and clarify SPT as headed in the wrong direction.

There is increasing competition for space in coastal seas as new industrial sectors, such as Marine Renewable Energy (MRE) and Aquaculture, seek to expand. Multi-Use - involving sharing of space and, in some cases, facilities - can lessen competition and reduce industry costs if societal and economic challenges can be overcome. An example societal challenge is that of gaining Social Licence to Operate (SLO) for 'Multifunctional Offshore Installations' (MOI) combining fish farming with MRE (from wind and waves) in a large floating structure. This article reports a mixed-methods study at two potential MOI deployment sites in 2019, aiming to understand the local context for SLO. A survey was carried out in Reggio Calabria, Italy, with 108 respondents, and in Islay, Scotland, with 127 respondents. Questions concerned opinions about MRE and fish-farming, separately and combined. A facilitated workshop in Reggio Calabria provided additional qualitative data. Most findings were the same in both places. Respondents thought better of MRE than fish-farming but remained moderately likely to eat fish produced in MOI. The majority distrusted regulators to control environmental impacts of the technology. The main differences were that respondents in Reggio Calabria anticipated local benefits from MOI industrial activity, and were more likely to accept development by non-local owners than were people on Islay. We interpreted the findings in a conceptual framework that combines theory for SLO with theory for Action Situations, hypothesising that a community’s diffuse and perhaps heterogenous opinions might ‘crystalise’ around an issue during an Action Situation. The hypothesis will be tested when a prototype MOI is deployed near Reggio Calabria in 2021.

Anthropogenic forcing has reduced the probability of summer persistent heavy rainfall in central western China similar to 2018 by ~47%, but increased that of daily extremes by ~1.5 times, based on HadGEM3-GA6 ensembles.

Objective To evaluate the feasibility of implementing interventions guided by six leading indicators, and the effectiveness of these interventions on improving employee's perception of their organization's health and safety climate. Method A quasi-experimental longitudinal design was used in two hospitals. Occupational health and safety management systems (OHSMS) were assessed using the Leading Indicator Assessment Tool. To address the gaps identified in the assessment, tailored interventions were developed, pilot tested, and evaluated. Data were collected pre- and post-interventions. Results Interventions were developed to improve three leading indicators: senior management commitment, employee involvement, and communication. Overall, both sites supported using leading indicators to guide proactive interventions. Employees' perceptions of the health and safety climate improved at one site only. Conclusions The results suggest the utilization of leading indicators to assess an organization's current OHSMS, identify areas for improvement, and implement tailored interventions is feasible to support a culture of safety in healthcare.

Emotional intelligence (EI) is reported to be inversely associated with emotional distress, although the potential role of negative repetitive thoughts in this relationship has not yet been explored. The current investigation examined the links between four facets of trait EI and emotional distress (i.e., symptoms of generalized anxiety disorder [GAD], depression, and social anxiety), and the mediating roles of worry, rumination, and post-event processing (PEP) in a sample of university students (N = 126). The EI facets of recognizing and regulating emotions in the self correlated negatively with emotional distress and negative repetitive thoughts. Regulation of emotions in others correlated only with levels of social anxiety. The role of negative repetitive thoughts was tested using three multiple mediator models. Worry independently mediated the link between EI and symptoms of GAD. Worry, rumination, and PEP independently mediated the link between EI and depression. Worry and rumination independently mediated the link between EI and social anxiety. Results suggest lower trait EI may lead to greater negative repetitive thoughts, which may increase the experience of emotional distress.

Mycophenolic acid (MPA) is commonly used following renal transplant. Saliva MPA concentrations may reflect the pharmacologically active form of MPA in plasma. Therapeutic drug monitoring using saliva is convenient and non-invasive. This study examined the correlation between total and free plasma and saliva MPA concentrations following enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium (EC-MS) administration in renal transplant recipients. Total and free plasma and saliva MPA concentrations were measured simultaneously in 20 adult renal transplant recipients 1–2 months’ post-transplant. Thirteen samples were taken pre-dose and at specified time points up until 12 h post-dose. When considering all time points, correlation between total plasma and saliva MPA was r2 = 0.51 and between free plasma and saliva MPA concentrations r2 = 0.41. The correlation between total plasma MPA area under the concentration–time curve (AUC) or free plasma AUC and saliva MPA AUC was r2 = 0.25 and r2 = 0.13, respectively. The correlation between total plasma MPA AUC and total plasma MPA trough (C0) concentrations was r2 = 0.51, and between total plasma MPA AUC and saliva MPA trough concentrations, r2 = 0.03. Measurement of MPA concentration in saliva cannot currently replace plasma measurement for therapeutic drug monitoring of MPA following EC-MS administration. Additional studies are required to examine the relationship between MPA saliva concentrations and patient outcomes.

Southeast Brazil has great economic importance for Brazil and is highly vulnerable to extreme events like floods and droughts. Studies have shown an increase of temperature in this region. Using a new detection and attribution framework (Ribes et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3079-6) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models, this change is found to be largely due to greenhouse gases. We estimate that greenhouse gases contribute a warming of 0.95 to 1.5 °C to the observed warming trend of 1.1 °C between 1955 and 2004. Temperature changes from natural and nongreenhouse gas anthropogenic forcing are estimated to be small over this period. Results are robust using different time windows. Using the Community Earth System Model ensembles to evaluate the impacts of internal variability, observational and model error shows that most uncertainty arises from model error.

The local aerosol emissions effect is investigated by comparing two numerical simulations (1982‐2016) with the UK HadGEM3‐GA6 model nudged to the same ERA‐Interim circulation. One includes full historical CMIP5 RCP4.5 aerosol emission changes while the second uses a monthly aerosol climatology from 1982. At global scale, the emission scenario does not change the mean surface energy balance but it shows strong regional contrasts. Thus we focus on regions where the change in emission has been the largest: North America, Europe, India and China.No clear impact on temperature trends is found over China although aerosol emissions have increased in recent decades. This could be explained by a stronger role of meteorology in this region rather than direct surface heating, and also by a more limited change in AOD compared to regions such as Europe. Other regions show clearer responses to aerosol effect, consistent with previous studies: Cooler maximum temperatures (with historical emission compared to fixed emissions) where emissions have increased (North‐East of India) and warmer maximum temperatures where emissions have decreased (Europe). However, in each region, the interannual variability in temperatures is strongly controlled by the circulation. Precipitation is also locally decreased (0.5 mm.day‐1) over North India during summer due to a reduction of moisture convergence in the boundary layer (where no nudging is applied).Based on these simulations, we suggest that radiation‐driven aerosol emission impacts on local surface temperature and precipitation is not linear and can be mitigated or cancelled by the local dynamics.

The climate modeling techniques of event attribution enable systematic assessments of the extent that anthropogenic climate change may be altering the probability or magnitude of extreme events. In the consecutive years of 2018, 2019, and 2020, rainfalls caused repeated flooding impacts in the lower Parnaíba River in Northeastern Brazil. We studied the effect that alterations in precipitation resulting from human influences on the climate had on the likelihood of flooding using two ensembles of the HadGEM3-GA6 atmospheric model: one driven by both natural and anthropogenic forcings; and the other driven only by natural atmospheric forcings, with anthropogenic changes removed from sea surface temperatures and sea ice patterns. We performed hydrological modeling to base our assessments on the peak annual streamflow. The change in the likelihood of flooding was expressed in terms of the ratio between probabilities of threshold exceedance estimated for each model ensemble. With uncertainty estimates at the 90% confidence level, the median (5% 95%) probability ratio at the threshold for flooding impacts in the historical period (1982–2013) was 1.12 (0.97 1.26), pointing to a marginal contribution of anthropogenic emissions by about 12%. For the 2018, 2019, and 2020 events, the median (5% 95%) probability ratios at the threshold for flooding impacts were higher at 1.25 (1.07 1.46), 1.27 (1.12 1.445), and 1.37 (1.19 1.59), respectively; indicating that precipitation change driven by anthropogenic emissions has contributed to the increase of likelihood of these events by about 30%. However, there are other intricate hydrometeorological and anthropogenic processes undergoing long-term changes that affect the flood hazard in the lower Parnaíba River. Trend and flood frequency analyses performed on observations showed a nonsignificant long-term reduction of annual peak flow, likely due to decreasing precipitation from natural climate variability and increasing evapotranspiration and flow regulation.

Summary Lak phages with alternatively coded ∼540 kbp genomes were recently reported to replicate in Prevotella in microbiomes of humans that consume a non-Western diet, baboons, and pigs. Here, we explore Lak phage diversity and broader distribution using diagnostic polymerase chain reaction and genome-resolved metagenomics. Lak phages were detected in 13 animal types, including reptiles, and are particularly prevalent in pigs. Tracking Lak through the pig gastrointestinal tract revealed significant enrichment in the hindgut compared to the foregut. We reconstructed 34 new Lak genomes, including six curated complete genomes, all of which are alternatively coded. An anomalously large (∼660 kbp) complete genome reconstructed for the most deeply branched Lak from a horse microbiome is also alternatively coded. From the Lak genomes, we identified proteins associated with specific animal species; notably, most have no functional predictions. The presence of closely related Lak phages in diverse animals indicates facile distribution coupled to host-specific adaptation., Graphical abstract, Highlights • PCR and genome-resolved metagenomics revealed Lak phages in 13 animal species • Lak is abundant in the pig hindgut, with potential relevance to growth performance • Thirty-four new Lak phage genomes present expanded size range and phylogeny • Unique Lak protein families from specific microbiomes suggest animal host adaptation, Virology; Microbiome; Omics

Summary We subjected human paleofeces dating from the Bronze Age to the Baroque period (18th century AD) to in-depth microscopic, metagenomic, and proteomic analyses. The paleofeces were preserved in the underground salt mines of the UNESCO World Heritage site of Hallstatt in Austria. This allowed us to reconstruct the diet of the former population and gain insights into their ancient gut microbiome composition. Our dietary survey identified bran and glumes of different cereals as some of the most prevalent plant fragments. This highly fibrous, carbohydrate-rich diet was supplemented with proteins from broad beans and occasionally with fruits, nuts, or animal food products. Due to these traditional dietary habits, all ancient miners up to the Baroque period have gut microbiome structures akin to modern non-Westernized individuals whose diets are also mainly composed of unprocessed foods and fresh fruits and vegetables. This may indicate a shift in the gut community composition of modern Westernized populations due to quite recent dietary and lifestyle changes. When we extended our microbial survey to fungi present in the paleofeces, in one of the Iron Age samples, we observed a high abundance of Penicillium roqueforti and Saccharomyces cerevisiae DNA. Genome-wide analysis indicates that both fungi were involved in food fermentation and provides the first molecular evidence for blue cheese and beer consumption in Iron Age Europe., Graphical abstract, Highlights • Gut microbiome and diet of European salt miners determined using paleofeces • Until the Baroque, the microbiome resembled that of modern non-Westernized people • Food-fermenting fungi in Iron Age feces indicates blue cheese and beer consumption, Maixner et al. describe the gut microbiome and diet of European salt miners using paleofeces dating from the Bronze Age to the Baroque period. This analysis provides evidence for recent changes in the gut microbiome due to industrialization and for the consumption of fermented food and beverages in Iron Age Europe.

There is growing concern about the impact of rising nutrient loading on aquatic ecosystems and on human health, due to increased urbanisation and associated sewage effluents. This has led to a policy focus on land-use change or agricultural practice change as nutrient mitigation strategies, but these fail to consider the ultimate downstream receiving environments such as marine ecosystems. Within the UK there has been increasing recognition that housing density in certain sensitive locations is impacting the conservation status of marine features, through the increase in nutrient loading to the marine environment. In order to comply with the statutory obligations to protect these marine features, the competent authorities have required developers to mitigate the impact of these additional nutrients. Current approaches include converting agricultural land to woodland and wetland habitats that release less nitrogen than the agricultural land they replace. This difference is used to offset the nutrient loading from the new development, but such a terrestrial-focused catchment-based mass balance approach has a number of limitations. Current solutions for nutrient neutrality in the UK take a narrow land-focused approach that fails to acknowledge the potential contribution of the marine environments to mitigate nutrient enrichment. We propose that marine nature-based solutions offer an economically and ecologically viable alternative to terrestrial schemes, that can reduce the nitrogen loading to the marine environment, increase ecosystem service provision and increase biodiversity.

Negative emissions technologies (NETs) are an essential part of most scenarios for achieving the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to below 2°C and for all scenarios that limit warming to 1.5 °C. The deployment of these technologies requires carbon accounting methods for a range of different purposes, such as determining the effectiveness of specific technologies or incentivising NETs. Although the need for carbon accounting methods is discussed within the literature on NETs, there does not appear to be a clear understanding of the range of different accounting challenges. Based on a systematic literature review this study identifies five distinct accounting issues related to NETs: 1. estimating total system-wide change in emissions/removals; 2. non-permanence; 3. non-equivalence of ‘no overshoot’ and ‘overshoot and removal’; 4. accounting for incentives for NETs; and 5. the temporal distribution of emissions/removals. Solutions to these accounting challenges are proposed, or alternatively, areas for further research and the development of solutions are highlighted. One key recommendation is that carbon accounting methods should follow a ‘reality principle’ to report emissions and removals when and where they actually occur, and an important overall conclusion is that it is essential to use the correct accounting method for its appropriate purpose. For example, consequential methods that take account of total system-wide changes in emissions/removals should be used if the purpose is to inform decisions on the deployment or incentivisation of NETs. Attributional methods, however, should be used if the purpose is to construct static descriptions of possible net zero worlds.

Lak phages with alternatively coded ~540 kbp genomes were recently reported to replicate in Prevotella in the gut microbiomes of humans that consume a non-western diet, baboons and some pigs. Here, we investigate the diversity and broader distribution of Lak phages in human and animal microbiomes using diagnostic PCR and genome-resolved metagenomics. Lak phages were detected in 13 different animal types and are particularly prevalent in pigs, with significant enrichment in the hindgut compared to foregut. We reconstructed 34 new Lak genomes, including six curated complete genomes, all of which are alternatively coded. The most deeply branched Lak is from a horse faecal sample and is the largest phage genome from an animal microbiome (~660 kbp). From the Lak genomes, we identified families of hypothetical proteins associated with specific animal types. Overall, we substantially expanded Lak phage diversity and demonstrate their occurrence in a variety of human and animal microbiomes.

Additional file 1: Supplementary Figures S1-S15.

Personality is increasingly recognized as a key factor in the psychology of work behavior. Traditional perspectives on personality in the workplace emphasize its stable, dispositional quality in differentiating reliably among workers, predicting valued behavior, and accounting for the continuity of self-identity. The current chapter aims to advance the understanding and utility of personality in organizational settings from the perspective of personality dynamics. Following definitional development, representative theories and empirical findings bearing on personality dynamics in the workplace are summarized under (1) dispositional change, (2) person-situation interactions and situational specificity, (3) personality states, (4) personality and career development, and (5) self-regulation approaches to work motivation. Contributions of personality dynamics to the science of work behavior are identified in light of a proposed model emphasizing behavioral evaluation. We close by articulating research needs serving continued development of personality dynamics at work.

South‐East China usually experiences mild winter temperatures but can also be impacted by large‐scale and long‐lasting cold events. Here, we investigate how this category of events has changed during the past 6 decades and why, using both observation and climate model ensembles. We first show that models can reproduce the observed largescale dynamics associated with cold events. A dynamical advection of cold air is mostly responsible not only to trigger cold surges but also we found strong feedback from shortwave radiation, decreasing due to enhanced cloud cover. Recent trends are more difficult to evaluate. Models show a large internal variability and intermodel spread, while observation also indicates large uncertainties in its trend due to high internal variability. Our analysis indicates that even if cold events are likely to have been reduced due to greenhouse gases, trends cannot be attributed with high confidence to any anthropogenic signal alone. However, in the next few decades, the frequency of long‐lasting cold events are expected to quickly reduce due to the emerging greenhouse gases signal and possibly weakening aerosol effect over South‐East China. We also found that most of the trends are due to the change in the mean temperature. Thus, indirectly, there is no clear evidence that the change in cold event frequency is due to a change in the circulation.

Understanding the driving factors for precipitation extremes matters for adaptation and mitigation measures against the changing hydrometeorological hazards in Yangtze River basin, a habitable area that provides water resources for domestic, farming, and industrial needs. However, the region is naturally subject to major floods linked to monsoonal heavy precipitation during May–September. This study aims to quantify anthropogenic influences on the changing risk of 2-week-long precipitation extremes such as the July 2019 extreme cases, as well as events of shorter durations, over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River basin (MLYRB). Precipitation extremes with different durations ranging from 1-day to 14-days maximum precipitation accumulations are investigated. Gridded daily precipitations based on nearly 2,400 meteorological stations across China are used to define maximum accumulated precipitation extremes over the MLYRB in July during 1961–2019. Attribution analysis is conducted by using the Met Office HadGEM3-GA6 modeling system, which comprises two sets of 525-member ensembles for 2019. One is forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), sea-ice and all forcings, and the other is forced with preindustrialized SSTs and natural forcings only. The risk ratio between the exceedance probabilities estimated from all-forcing and natural-forcing simulations is calculated to quantify the anthropogenic contribution to the changing risks of the July 2019–like precipitation extremes. The results reveal that anthropogenic warming has reduced the likelihood of 2019-like 14-days heavy precipitation over the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River by 20%, but increased that of 2-days extremes by 30%.