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Which factors make some American multinational corporations (MNCs) take political action in response to the US–China Trade War and cause others to stay on the sidelines? We identify China-based subsidiaries of US firms to identify firms’ political actions in response to the trade war. We combine data on firms’ tariff exposure, economic actions in China, and political actions in the United States during the trade war. Together these data highlight the divergent strategies with which firms engage. Even though more than 63 percent of MNCs in our sample were adversely impacted by tariffs, only 22 percent voice opposition and 7 percent exit in response to the trade war. Our analysis reveals that US MNCs in China differ in their business models, ownership structure, experience in China, and size of capital investments. These firm-level factors determine the degree to which US MNCs are embedded in China. This in turn shapes how firms perceive political risk and choose from the menu of options to deal with the trade war. Size and age increase voice while joint-venture status decreases it.

This paper studies the impacts of the 2018 U.S. tariff surges on export prices and adjustments of sales across different markets of Chinese exporters. The finding that U.S. tariffs did not affect the free-on-board price of Chinese exports is robust to controlling for firm-related fixed effects. While firms' exports to the U.S. dropped significantly, exports to the E.U. increased moderately and domestic sales or exports to other foreign markets were barely affected. Finally, by surveying managers of exporting firms, we shed light on potential impediments to firms' adjustments of export prices and sales.

From 2018 to 2020, the trade war between the United States and China significantly raised trade barriers between the two largest economies in the world. My dissertation examines the economic consequences of the trade war, focusing on China's retaliation, and takes into account the presence of processing trade and global value chains. Whereas many recent studies have documented the effects of the trade war on the U.S. economy, less is known about the impacts on China. Notably, approximately 40% of Chinese imports are processing imports of intermediate inputs used in export-oriented products—which pay zero tariffs, even during the trade war. In Chapter 1, I provide an overview of the trade war and its background, as well as a summary of efforts to assess its economic impacts. I discuss what we have learned to date from both the U.S. and China's perspective, focusing on three central topics: (i) tariff pass-through and trade elasticity, (ii) trade diversion and the role of global supply chains, and (iii) welfare impacts. I also emphasize the importance of considering processing trade and China's duty-free policy on processing imports empirically and quantitatively. In Chapter 2, I conduct an empirical analysis of the impact of Chinese retaliation on China's import quantities and prices, highlighting the different effects on processing and non-processing trade. I do so by using monthly Chinese customs data from 2017 to 2019. I find significant reductions in non-processing imports from the U.S., whereas there is no significant effect on processing imports. This suggests that China's duty-free policy on processing trade may have served as a built-in mechanism to better protect domestic firms from damage by the trade war through the global value chain channel. In Chapter 3, I build and calibrate a quantitative trade model that incorporates China's duty-free policy on processing imports to quantify the welfare and trade effects of the trade war. The model shows that the duty-free policy reduced China's welfare loss by 44%, and that China's imports and exports would have decreased significantly more if processing imports had not been exempted from the tariffs. These changes primarily affect industries in which processing trade is prevalent, and the model also shows considerable spillover effects on U.S. sectoral outcomes.

This paper uses the “smile curve” mapping tool with a Y-axis for value-added ratio and an X-axis for production stages to identify value-added gains, positions, and interdependencies of foreign- and domestic-owned firms in global value chains (GVCs). Taking the U.S. and China's ICT firms’ exporting activities as a target, we find that China-based domestic-owned ICT firms’ value chain appears as a smile curve differing from the U.S.-based domestic-owned ICT firms’ inverted-U curve, which reflects the considerable difference in their technical specialization in joining GVCs; foreign-owned firms are good at utilizing each country's comparative advantages and can thus arrange value chains as smile curves regardless of whether they are located in the U.S. or China; China-based domestic-owned firms have increasingly plugged into most ICT value chains. All findings reflect how “sticky” the interdependency among countries along GVCs is and can thus help understanding the impact of the U.S.–China trade war.

С 2019 года различные международные институты, в том числе ВТО и МВФ, фиксируют рост протекционизма в сфере международной торговли. На фоне тенденции замедления мировой экономики, все больше развитых и развивающихся экономик мира вводят экономические механизмы, которые оказывают негативное влияние на конкуренцию. Сформировавшийся тренд затрагивает существенную часть мировой торговли товарами и услугами и, очевидно, будет усугубляться в обозримом будущем. Капиталоемкие сектора экономики получают все больше защиты со стороны национальных правительств. Новые вводимые манизмы пытаются избежать ошибок эпохи меркантилизма и не допустить дальнейшего ухудшения макроэкономических показателей., Since 2019, various international institutions, including the WTO and the IMF, have recorded an increase in protectionism in international trade. With a slowing world economy, more and more developed and developing economies around the world are introducing economic mechanisms that have a negative impact on competition. This trend affects a significant part of world trade in goods and services and is likely to worsen in the foreseeable future. Capital-intensive sectors of the economy are increasingly protected by national governments. Newly introduced mechanisms are set to help avoid the mistakes of the mercantilist era and prevent further deterioration of macroeconomic indicators.

This article review provides an insight into the main signals that will be responsible for the coming recession that will start from developed countries and will reflect negatively on developing countries that witness a decreasing level of development. The paper starts with the main seven signals that will initiate the recession. The second section will provide an analysis of the applied procedures and the economic reform that the government adopted to attract investment to overcome the previous and the coming challenges. Finally, the paper provides future expectations and paths for developing countries to overcome the recession.

During the difficult time of COVID-19, many businesses in different industries have experienced an economic downturn, causing their future development uncertain to foreseen. The research on the future trend of the IT industry is important because the technologic companies are dependent on customers that either the companies' internal features and external environment can influence people's buying powers. This paper chose Lenovo, a Chinese technologic company that dominates the global market, from the IT industry to analyze its strengths and weakness, as well as the impact of the current situation. This paper looked at Lenovo's financial data and stock price, along with Lenovo's strategies and operating process, to identify Lenovo's present-day situation. Although Lenovo holds a strong position in the global market right now, with the ongoing unfavorable environment such as the trade war between U.S. and China and the rampant of counterfeits, Lenovo is facing threats of losing its stock price. This paper contains a detailed analysis of Lenovo's strengths and weaknesses and the environment it has to deal with. The paper provides evidence to predict Lenovo's future development and suggestions to expand the existing market.

This paper develops a duopolistic contingent claim model to evaluate the equity values of life insurers during a trade war. Choosing advanced (technology-oriented) relative to backward (human capit...

PurposeThis research examines the dynamic interrelationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and the inflows of foreign direct investment (IFDI) in China.Design/methodology/approachThis research used the Granger causality and sub-sample time-varying rolling window causality method.FindingsThe empirical results reveal that EPU tends to have a negative impact on the IFDI in most periods that have been taken into consideration. However, there has been a positive relationship observed between the periods of the US subprime crisis. That is to say that the uncertainty of the Chinese economic policy does not always impede the IFDI. These results are supported by the general equilibrium model, which states that there are certain influences that come into play when moving from EPU to IFDI. On the other hand, the IFDI exert a positive influence on EPU during times of economic crisis and trade war, which indicates that the uncertainty in the economy may increase due to the sudden soar of foreign investment.Originality/valueDuring tense global trade situations and complicated economic scenarios, the results suggest the Chinese government should dedicate itself to expanding its initiatives to open up and improve the domestic business environment in order to increase the foreign investors' confidence and prevent the decline in the IFDI. In addition to this, it also suggests that multinational companies pay attention to the policy environment of the host country, especially when they decide to invest there.

PurposeOver the last couple of years, the Chinese manufacturing sector was affected by the onset of the US–China trade war and the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In such a scenario air quality in China has encountered a shock, and the impacts of these two incidents are unknown. In this study, the authors analyze the convergence of air quality in China in the presence of multiple structural breaks and how the impacts of these two events are different from each other.Design/methodology/approachIn order to assess the nature of shocks in the presence of multiple structural breaks, unit root tests with multiple structural breaks are employed.FindingsThe results reveal that air quality in China is showing the sign of convergence, and it is consistent across 18 provinces which are worst hit by the outbreak of COVID-19. In the presence of transitory shocks, the impact of COVID-19 outbreak is found to be higher, whereas the impact of the US–China trade war is found to be more persistent. Lastly, the outbreak of COVID-19 has been found to have more impact on pollutants with higher severity of health hazard.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that contributes to the empirical literature in terms of investigating the convergence of overall air pollution and individual air pollutants taking COVID-19 and the trade war into account.

— In the 14th five-year plan of the PRC (2021–2025), consumer demand is considered as the basis for future economic development and GDP per capita growth. Stimulating consumption within the PRC is one of the tasks of the government for 2021. This article analyzes the factors affecting the expansion of consumer demand, and also analyzes the economic indicators associated with the selected issue. The article also draws conclusions about the impact of the United States-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic on changing consumption patterns in the PRC.

espanol?Que tendencias pueden identificarse en un analisis evolutivo sobre la agenda china en la guerra comercial con los Estados Unidos? La investigacion analiza los dos documentos oficiales en la materia del gobierno de la Republica Popular China (de septiembre de 2018 y de junio de 2019), desde un marco teorico centrado en la racionalidad politica china y en los estudios de agenda, y con herramientas propias del analisis automatico de textos. Se obtiene como conclusion que el discurso politico chino sostiene —como eje central— la intencion de expandir el debate comercial a otros significados economicos, mantiene la critica al proteccionismo y defiende su posicion sobre la propiedad intelectual en China. Sin embargo, en el ano 2019 en el discurso politico chino adquieren una mayor centralidad los valores y principios cooperativos tipicos de la retorica politica china. Esto se destaca por sobre la estrategia china de deconstruccion del discurso occidental sobre el conflicto comercial, lo cual es predominante, con abundante particularizacion discursiva, en el ano 2018. EnglishModern Chinese political discourse, regarding foreign policy, has aroused considerable interest in the academic world, both by Western intellectuals and by Chinese scholars. In both cases, this interest is found in the possibility of generating a kind of translation of the particular Chinese discursive logics towards significant standards for the West. Furthermore, as an ultimate goal, it is hoped that this interpretive task may favor better political understandings between China and the West. In this sense, the current trade war between China and the United States represents a relevant object of study, to analyze from a Chinese political and discursive perspective.In this research paper we ask: what trends can be identified in an evolutionary analysis of the Chinese agenda in the trade war with the United States? The research analyzes two official documents on the subject (White papers) from the highest echelons of the government of the People’s Republic of China: The Facts and China’s Position on China-US Trade Friction (September 2018) and China’s Position on the China-US Economic and Trade Consultations (June 2019). These two documents represent the official vision of China and its evolution, in accordance with contextual changes.The research develops a theoretical framework focused on Chinese political rationality and its peculiarities. To make this conceptual framework transparent, it is compared with western political rationality. Different dimensions are worked on: political inclusion of actors in decision-making processes, framework for political action, processes of political action, the logic to determine solutions, and time horizon of political action. In the West, democratic horizontality grants argumentative flexibility, and stable frameworks for action restrict it. In China, institutional dynamism grants argumentative flexibility and the hierarchical and particular order restricts it. Democracy with stability versus hierarchy with change: both political schemes establish the argumentative limits. In other words, the dimensions of political rationality have a direct impact on the content and form of Chinese political discourse. Agenda studies is used strategically in this research to analyze Chinese political discourse. The pragmatic use of language and the combination of Confucianism and Marxism in Chinese political discourse can be identified from the perspective of agenda studies. In other words, an agenda approach allows us to consider different dimensions of Chinese political rationality and rhetoric: hierarchy established in a text; non-linearity of the solutions agenda; enabling, contradictory and strategic frameworks; particular context and its relation to general context; and finally, dynamism of the information content.The two specific research questions in this article are: How does China define and particularize its agenda in the trade war with the United States? What trends can be identified in an evolutionary analysis over this agenda? Our research hypothesis is: In Chinese official documents on the trade war with the United States, there are trends regarding political agenda, particularistic resources and an articulation of both.From a methodological point of view, the emergence of new technologies has allowed for the expansion of the frontiers of textual analysis. The present work uses cutting edge automatic natural language processing tools to study the Chinese agenda, such as: identification of parts of speech (Part of Speech Tagging), construction of concordance matrices (with Key Word in Context framework), named entity recognition, and relationship vectors calculation. Also, comparative analysis techniques are used to analyze evolution of the PRC’s agenda in the trade war with the United States.In this way, the work proposes an original contribution (theoretical and empirical) to the field of social and political agenda studies, by adapting them to Chinese political rationality and discourse.As conclusions, this investigation demonstrates the fulfillment of the hypothesis, since in the official Chinese documents related to the trade war with the United States there are tendencies on the political agenda, the particularistic resources and the articulation of both.The document The Facts and China’s Position on China-US Trade Friction expands the trade discussion towards industrial chains and investments. In this text, measures that correspond to national interests and those that affect the international community are listed, specifying the latter in the WTO arena. Also, goods and services of trade and their rates are particularized with data and proper names. Two other frameworks are relevant: the discussion on intellectual property, and the rules and regulations to foster cooperation. This second one (quite restricted) acts as an enabling framework, although it omits Chinese rhetoric of values and principles.China’s Position on the China-US Economic and Trade Consultations document maintains the trend of the central axis of the 2018 document, but it is less aggressive, by centralizing cooperation as an objective. The 2019 document does not offer as important a backing of authoritative resources as the 2018 document does. In addition, the trend of intellectual property debate in China remains very important in the 2019 document. However, as a relevant change, this second document presents a political agenda much closer to the contradictory and dialectical frameworks of China’s classical Confucian and Marxist rhetoric (terms such as mutual benefit, mutual respect or win-win relationships are used).There is a marked trend of important coincidences (expanding the discussion from commercial to economic, criticizing protectionism and holding a position in the debate on intellectual property in China), but the differences between documents are also relevant. In particular, the 2019 document embraces in a more friendly way the Chinese political rhetoric of cooperative values and principles, and avoids resources of authority. In this sense, less particularization implies lower levels of orientation.From the point of view of our theoretical framework, both documents seek to highlight collective effectiveness (the development of a global community), and work on problem-solution logics. Furthermore, the change between the two documents reflects the dynamism in China’s use of discursive resources.In short, the second document of 2019 shows greater characteristics of a Chinese political discourse which encourages pragmatism. The first document of 2018 develops a more deconstructive position over the western rhetoric of the trade conflict, even using tools that are more typical of scientific discourse (with deductions or inductions from authoritative resources).Chinese political discourse is dynamic, adapting to the context in a multiplicity of possible ways. Identifying continuities and changes in Chinese discourse from the theoretical understanding of its political rationality is essential to interpret current conflicts.

The US-China trade war, initiated in March 2018, substantially transformed the trading partnership between the two largest economic powers. It directly influenced the profitability of domestic enterprises related to the export chain and harmed the domestic economy in China and its stock market. This study empirically examines the effects of the trade war on China’s stock market based on chronological events and tests whether it is the contagion effect or the present value effect. The empirical study supports the contagion effect because the impact of the US-China trade war differed significantly in different sectors only when the US announced its imposition of more tariffs on US$50 billion worth of Chinese products. However, there is no apparent difference between the industries for other events, nor is there any significant difference between the industries in terms of long-term impact.

The global atmosphere in the mid-year 2019 was more of anxiety and frustrations about the impact of a US–China trade war, Brexit outcomes, oil price fluctuations and even the upcoming US election 2...

The Mexico–China economic relationship is highly asymmetric, although the amount of total trade between the two countries has grown rapidly in the last ten years. Chinese exports to Mexico have grown exponentially and have diversified into different economic sectors. In contrast, Mexican exports to China have also grown but at a much slower pace and the pattern shows more concentration in fewer products. Paradoxically, in the context of the United States–China trade war, the Mexican economy has benefitted from the increase in tariffs that the United States has imposed on Chinese products. In 2019, for the first time, Mexico displaced China as a main trade partner of the United States. In this context, this article analyses the current economic relationship of Mexico with China and the United States in a triangular scheme, the impact of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement on the China–Mexico relationship, and Mexico's trade relationship with both economies in the context of the trade war.

This research project evaluated U.S. trade and technology transfer policies with China from 2008 to 2022. It sought to identify the major drivers of these policies as well as the causal mechanisms for major shifts in these policies through an analysis of relevant primary and secondary sources. This thesis revealed that U.S. trade and technology transfer policies transitioned away from being primarily driven by free and open trade with China to being guided by U.S. economic competition and national security concerns. This transition was gradually and continuously amplified over time due to China’s unfair business tactics and illicit technology acquisitions from the U.S. As China continued to modernize, bolster its regional influence, strengthen its military, and propel its economy, the U.S. increasingly discovered China obtained key U.S. technologies and trade secrets through both open and surreptitious means. The U.S. simultaneously felt that it was losing its regional influence in the Indo-Pacific as China’s was increasing. Thus, the U.S. hardened its trade and technology transfer policies with China to preserve key U.S. technologies, maintain its regional influence, and slow China’s economic, military, and regional influence rise. Economic competition and national security became mutually reinforcing drivers of U.S. technology transfer and trade policies to the point that the veil separating the two became negligible. Major, United States Air Force Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The trade dispute between China and the US is not a recent phenomenon. The US administration argues that increased tariffs and fairer trade, investment, and technology relationships are necessary t...

The growing protectionism globally and the outbreak of a major US–China trade war led Indian exports facing higher tariffs. This article has tried to investigate how India should react to the trade tensions between the two largest economies of the world. This will help policymakers in India to assess the impact of the likely developments and choose between different policy responses. In a bilateral US–China trade war, while both the United States and China stand to lose in terms of GDP, exports and imports, India stands to gain. India stands to lose when the US–China trade war applies also to India, which faces higher tariffs from both. India’s losses increase further when India responds by increasing its tariffs on imports from the United States and China. In fact, reducing own tariffs could be a wiser step. Enhancing productivity measures by raising port efficiency and making trade and transport sector more efficient appear to pay dividend. India gains even more from joining the RCEP-like trading block when the United States and China are indulging in bilateral trade war. Last but not least, US–China trade war seems to affect Asian countries, some positively some negatively. JEL Codes: F13, C68, F14

Economic globalization has resulted in more frequent trading frictions, some of which have escalated into trade wars such as the one between China and the US. Drawing on the same corpus built by Zhang and Forceville (Zhang, Cun & Charles Forceville. 2020. Metaphor and metonymy in Chinese and American political cartoons (2018–2019) about the Sino–US trade conflict. Pragmatics and Cognition 27(2). 476–501), and complementing insights of that paper, this paper investigates how the Sino–US trade war is metaphorically and metonymically constructed in 129 Chinese and American political cartoons respectively from a synthesized perspective. Based on comparative analyses, cross-cultural similarity and uniqueness in the semiotic, cognitive, and cultural aspects can be concluded as follows: (a) at the expression level, the shared dominant mode configuration pattern of metaphor and metonymy requires extra-textual knowledge to identify the target domain/concept while the source domain/vehicle concept is pinpointed through pictorial resources; (b) at the cognition level, “us” and “them” are distinctively evaluated by using the metonymy BODILY REACTION FOR EMOTION, cultural symbols, and the Great Chain metaphor. The Chinese cartoons converge on disapproving of “them” while the American cartoons converge on disapproving of “us” and diverge on conceptualizing “them”; (c) a variety of cross-cultural default scenarios are employed in the Chinese cartoons whereas the American cartoons utilize non-default scenarios influenced by only American cultures. Both aim for persuasiveness by employing emotionally charged source domains/vehicle concepts, but to different audiences.

It is a difficult time to be a farmer, particularly in the midwestern US, where a slow-moving farm crisis has been brewing. In recent years farmers have faced multiple socioeconomic threats such as a trade war with China, industry consolidation, and decreasing farmgate prices, as well as multiple environmental threats, including flooding and drought. We analyze farmers’ assessments of these concurrent risks and their relationship to stress and farm exit, through a mail survey of 210 soy and dairy farmers in Indiana. On average, environmental threats are perceived as less of a threat to farmers than to immediate socioeconomic threats such as the trade war and, more importantly, long-run economic issues such as price decline and consolidation. We find evidence that farm exit is largely determined by farmer identity, perspectives on the trade war, and stress. The ongoing trade war with China is a key source of stress for soybean farmers and federal payments from the Market Facilitation Program are unlikely to stem farm exit. Addressing the farm exit problem and mitigating the current farm crisis necessitates greater attention to how policies, indirectly lead to farm exit through stress.

The U.S-China trade war began after U.S under Donald Trump era raised import tariffs on thousands of China’s products. The policy was retaliated by China with a similar policy. The trade war took place in three rounds starting from July 2018 to September 2019. This paper seeks to analyze factors that influence U.S to issue such a policy triggering the trade war. The article adopted theory of adaptive foreign policy model. Following this theory, authors argued that U.S policy of raising import tariffs that triggered the trade war was a convulsively adaptive foreign policy reflecting significant changes in both external and internal environment. First, it can be seen from External Change Variable, namely, the emergence of China as a new superpower. Second, Structural Change variable showed U.S political structure change from Democrats to Republicans along with Trump's victory in the 2016 Presidential Election. Finally, the leadership factor was Trump's negative perception of China before serving as president. Keywords: trade war, convulsively adaptive, external change, structural change, leadership factor. Abstrak: Perang dagang AS dan Tiongkok diawali dengan kebijakan AS di era Donald Trump yang menaikkan tarif impor atas ribuan produk asal Tiongkok. Kebijakan tersebut dibalas oleh Tiongkok dengan kebijakan yang serupa. Perang dagang tersebut berlangsung dalam tiga ronde dari Juli 2018 hingga September 2019. Tulisan ini mencoba menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi AS mengeluarkan kebijakan tersebut sehingga memicu perang dagang. Penulis menggunakan teori model kebijakan luar negeri adaptif. Berdasarkan teori tersebut, penulis menemukan bahwa kebijakan AS menaikkan tarif impor yang memicu perang dagang merupakan kebijakan luar negeri adaptif convulsive yang berarti terdapat perubahan signifikan baik di lingkungan ekstenal maupun internal. Pertama, dilihat dari variabel External Change yaitu kemunculan Tiongkok sebagai negara adidaya baru. Kedua, dilihat dari variabel Structural Change yaitu perubahan struktur politik AS dari Partai Demokrat ke Partai Republik seiring dengan kemenangan Trump pada Pilpres 2016. Terakhir, yakni leadership factor berupa persepsi negatif Trump terhadap Tiongkok sebelum menjadi presiden. Kata Kunci: perang dagang, adaptif convulsive, external change, structural change, leadership factor.

In this article, we attempt to estimate the economic impacts of the US–China trade war that began in 2018. We used IDE-GSM, a computational general equilibrium simulation model, to estimate the economic impacts of a ‘full-confrontation’ scenario wherein both countries impose 25% additional tariffs on all goods imported from each other for 3 years 2019 onwards. In our calculation, the economic impact for the United States is −0.4% and −0.5% for China. Some Asian countries benefit from the trade war. As far as it remains bilateral, the trade war is only an issue for the concerned parties. We also ran the US–world trade war scenario, wherein the United States and all other countries impose a 25% additional tariff on all goods. The negative impact on the global economy is –0.8%, much more significant than the 0.1% impact from the US–China trade war. Thus, it is clear that the world cannot afford to engage in a multilateral trade war. JEL Codes: C68, F13

The significance of the Great Silk Road is interesting not only by its history, but by the knowledge, required for the better understanding of the current economic and political realities as well. The introduction of the new insights into the essence of the Eurasian trade route, its emergence and destruction studied under the projection on the contemporary processes, undermining the global supply chain represents the main idea of the given research. In the article, the Great Silk Road is represented in the logistics framework: generation of the freight flows, peculiarity of their material composition, the pathway trajectory architecture, creation of the necessary infrastructure. The significance of the spatial peculiarity, natural preconditions and advanced technologies for the freight generation, the international trade development and the Eurasian civilization emergence is emphasized. The paper reveals special logistic characteristics of silk as the initial chain in the ancient trade as well as the distinctive characteristics of transportation mode and freight. The political stability plays a significant role in the risk reduction for the freight turnover and for functioning of the international transportation system in general. The endogenous and exogenous reasons for the Great Silk Road breakdown are related with the increasing trade deficit between the East and West, the import substitution policy accepted by the European countries and increasing protectionism in their external trade relations. Exploring the Great Silk Road downfall, the author concludes about the contemporary global supply chain disruption causes, emphasizing the negative impact of the economic and political influence. The US-China trade war destroys the international trade. The COVID-19 pandemic tends the business localization. Ecological threats provide new requirements to the freight flows. The “pull strategy”, practiced by the logistic companies is steadily replacing by the “push strategy”. Moreover, China has been reducing investments into the trans-Eurasian project. That kind of instability could lead to a deep transformation of the international transportation systems as well as the system of the international relations in general. Russia should consider those new realities carefully when scheduling its international division of labour strategy.

This paper estimates changes in demand for imported wines by source country and resulting welfare effects due to Section 301 tariffs imposed on certain European wines in October 2019. A two-stage expenditure allocation scheme is used to estimate the import demand for red, white, and other wines in the first stage, and source-differentiated red wine and white wine demand in the second stage. From derived price elasticities measuring first and second stage interactions, welfare measures are simulated capturing effects of the new tariffs on both taxed and non-taxed exporters as well as the US importers of red and white wine.

Purpose - Offshoring has emerged as one of the major trends in international trade and has become one of the strategies for achieving competitiveness in the global market. In spite of this, the expected gains of offshoring can be offset by hidden costs and risks, such as those associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, the trade war between the USA and China, and the ongoing trade dispute between Korea and Japan. To obviate such business failure and prevent critical business blunders, offshoring strategies that efficiently consider both risk elements and potential wealth creation are urgently need. The first purpose of this study is to contribute to the development of more advanced offshoring strategies to help host countries select the best locations to manage supply chain risks and create unique value. The second purpose is to specifically analyze the current status of Korea and provide Korean companies with implications to be considered when deciding whether to offshore or re-shore. Design/methodology - A Network DEA model was applied to measure the comparative location efficiency of national competencies for offshoring strategy from perspectives of wealth creation opportunities (profitability and marketability) and supply chain risk management. The location efficiencies are compared among a total 70 countries selected from the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) and globally attractive locations outlined by Kearney (2017). For the secondary analysis of efficiency, a t-test examining the nature of competitive advantage and the level of sophistication in production processes was implemented in three divisions. We then analyzed differences in offshoring performance in terms of the identified national traits. Moreover, Tobit regression analysis is conducted to investigate the correlation between value-added business activities and each divisional efficiency, seeking to determine how each degree of value-added business activity influences the increase in offshoring productivity. Findings - Regarding overall location efficiency for offshoring performance, only the USA and Italy were identified as being efficient as host countries for offshoring, under circumstances of advanced development, such as productivity and risk management. Korea ranks 13th among 70 countries. The determinants of national competitiveness depend on national traits (the nature of competitive advantage and business sophistication). Countries with labor/resource advantages and labor-intensive industries are more competitive in terms of marketability than others. In contrast, countries with strong technology-intensive industries benefit offshoring companies, particularly in the technology sector, with the added advantage of supply chain risk management. As the perception of a value chain is broader in a country, it can achieve both production sophistication and competitive advantages such as marketability and SCRM. Originality/value - Existing studies focus on offshoring effectiveness from a company perspective. This paper contributes to comparing country efficiency in producing core competencies related to an offshoring strategy and also segments countries into three performance-based considerations associated with the global offshoring market. It also details Korea's position as an offshoring location according to national efficiency and competency.

This paper investigates the impact of financial conditions, for example, cross-border capital flows, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, on the well-being of the real estate developers in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies. The study uses a Bottom-up Default Analysis model to stress test their creditworthiness by reproducing the financial shocks during the global financial crisis, taper tantrum, and the U.S.-China trade war and COVID-19 pandemic. The median developers remain sound under the prescribed adversities. The performance is underpinned by their strong fundamentals and a conducive mix of monetary, foreign exchange, and open capital account policies by national authorities. © 2021 Western Economic Association International.

The US public holds more nuanced views about China than are typically captured in public opinion surveys. Empirical investigation of a nationwide online survey of US adults shows that the American public is sharply divided over the US–China trade war, despite reporting high support for international trade with China (76%). Using survey questions on US–China trade and the trade war, a typology was developed that indicates more than 40% of US adults support trade with China but oppose the trade war. A slightly smaller share has a more economically militant view of trade with China, supporting trade and the trade war. Political identity is strongly associated with attitudes toward the trade war, but only weakly associated with attitudes toward trade with China. Perceptions about China and its government, people, and culture are highly correlated with views on trade with China but are unrelated to views on the trade war.

In recent years, Vietnam commerce sector have received many impacts from trade war and covid 19 ,we conduct this study in order to figure out what factors affect accounting net revenue of a typical Vietnam company in commerce industry, My Tra Company (MTC). This study mainly use combination of quantitative methods (statistics, calculation formulas) and qualitative methods including synthesis, inductive and explanatory methods. Our study main results show that: for single scatter chart with regression, most of factors have positive correlation with accounting net revenue. Next, Because admin expense has positive correlation with revenue, MTC managers need to control admin expense and increase at acceptable level to boost revenue of the firm. And because sale cost and COGS has positive correlation with net revenue, MTC management need to increase sale and COGS cost rationally to boost revenue. Besides, this study also give out recommendations for enhancing accounting net revenue of the business - My Tra company (MTC) in Vietnam commerce sector.

El choque entre dos economías tan fuertes como las de Estados Unidos y China augura impactos muy fuertes en la economía mundial, los cuales tendrán repercusiones más fuertes en los países emergentes, que tienen como base económica la exportación de materias primas sin algún tipo de transformación. Sin embargo, ¿todos los impactos serán negativos? Esta investigación tiene como objetivo hallar las implicaciones que trae la guerra comercial a un país emergente como Colombia. Por ello, se focaliza el sector textil —dado que es el más fuerte dentro del comercio en disputa—, para así poder identificar si son favorables, o no, los nuevos escenarios globales que se abren en medio de esta guerra a gran escala nunca antes experimentada.

The integration of Indian economy through the channels of trade and capital flow has been accelerated over the last two decades. Even during the Covid-19 pandemic, policy stimulus continued to promote export-led growth in the economy. These decadal efforts to retain the exiting market share and capturing the new market continues to face number of challenges for India. India is presently known as one of the most important players in the global economic landscape. After the US-China trade war scenes, the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic has questioned China’s integrity across many countries of the world. When developed countries thinking over shifting their manufacturing base out of China, attracting this large chunk of capital flight has challenged Indian government. Data shows that the aggressive policy measures taken by both the central and state government to tap the crowding out of investment from China apparently succeeding. But this is a short-term picture, will it continue in the long-run? That is questionable. The ‘Make in India’ or ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ initiatives, export-led growth policy stimulus during pandemic, rise in exports of food products, generic medicines, newly entered FDIs and flood of FIIs in Indian economy. All these dots need to be connected at the backdrop of India’s New Foreign Trade Policy (2021-26). This research paper would like to focus on each one of the above mentioned initiatives by the Indian government and its significance to the entire trade policy as such. Paper would also like to consider the sustainability part of these initiatives.

This paper examines whether the recent trade war between the US and China would lead to a great power war. In so doing, we rely on two theoretical frameworks, mercantilism and power transition theory, that are likely to link trade war to a military confrontation. Evidence shows that the trade war per se is not a sufficient condition for an all-out war between the US and China. Unlike mercantilists argue, first, we identify the importance of domestic coalitions before trade war being escalated to a military conflict. Second, we find that trade war as economic statecraft is a viable means to suppress a challenger’s capability, which may stop or delay the power transition process. The findings provide implications for middle power countries where strategic choices are required between the two major powers.

This paper analyzed the use of war metaphors in COVID-19 news reported by the New York Times (NYT) in comparison to the China Daily from the 1st of February 2020 to the 29th of February 2020. Based on self-selected corpus from these two newspapers, a study was conducted to compare the contrasting lexis between NYT and China Daily, as well as to analyze the reasons for their differences using the Critical Metaphor Analysis (CMA). It was found that China Daily preferred using war metaphors in COVID-19 reports and war-related words such as “fight,” “combat,” and “battle.” These words appeared frequently which demonstrated that Chinese people were fighting against the pandemic. However, these words were far less used in the NYT reports compared to China Daily and the use of these words were more related to the election, trade war, etc. This reflected their focus which was more on the impact of COVID-19 on politics and the economic sector.

This study is analyzed the negotiation process trade war of the United States versus China under US foreign policy. This research is qualitative research, because it seeks to explain negotiate trade war between US and China. This research uses the research library for data collection through book, journal, and search engines and used analytical descriptive. The result of this study found that the trade war between US and China had a large impact on the global economy. Besides that, the trade war negotiation process aims to find a way out of the trade war. Negotiations between two countries reached a phase I agreement establish a “pause” of trade war

The primary goal of this paper is to provide empirical evidence for how non-trade factors attribute to the China-US trade war. Trump’s tweets provide us with a unique perspective. After analysing 3...

The recent US-China Trade War leads to a decrease in GDPs and welfare levels for the US and China as well as the whole world. The US-China Trade War also leads to the largest decrease in automobiles for US’s exports to China and the largest decrease in TextWepp for China’s exports to the US. And it also leads both the US and China to decrease in most product sectors. Korea, Japan, the EU, Vietnam, India, Mexico and Brazil are expected to increase their exports to the US in manufactured goods such as TextWapp, LightMnfc, HwavyMnfc, Chemical, Electronics sectors, except in primary sectors. However, Korea, Japan, the EU, Vietnam, India, Mexico and Brazil are expected to increase or decrease their exports to China according to their trade structure versus China. The welfare effects of the US and China as well as the whole world appear to be negative. However, welfare gains are expected to be relatively small positive in all other countries.

As this article will explain in detail, much of the fentanyl reaching the hands of Americans comes from The People’s Republic of China (“China”). However, as seen by the rise in overdoses, most efforts to control the invasion of fentanyl have been unsuccessful. Although the federal and state governments have attempted to curtail this crisis by imposing sanctions and urging China to regulate the production and shipping of the substance, fentanyl continues to flood the streets of the U.S. Moreover, the economic interdependence between the two nations complicates the matter. Because of this interdependence, the U.S. must take control of the situation. The U.S. fentanyl problem will persist if Americans are not dissuaded from using the drug. We must focus on the demand, rather than the supply. This comment focuses on the rise of opioids and synthetic pain relievers, and the variety of attempts at decreasing the number of addicts and overdoses. Initially, the comment will discuss the history of the popular drug opium, opiates, and prescription opioids, discussing state and federal attempts at curbing the crisis that the U.S. faces. It will address the rise of synthetic opioids, such as fentanyl, and how and why it was created. Section two will discuss how fentanyl and its precursors are imported into the U.S. from China. Section three will discuss U.S. federal and state attempts at legislation to control the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. Section four will address the implications, or perhaps fuel to the fire, that the influx in the supply of fentanyl from China has had on trade relations, and how the trade linkage between the two nations obfuscates the situation. The comment will conclude by hypothesizing how the U.S. and China will recalibrate their relationship and recommend that to combat the fentanyl emergency, the U.S. needs to take steps to offer Americans with drug addictions the assistance they need.

Uncovering the risk transmitting path within economic sectors in China is crucial for understanding the stability of the Chinese economic system, especially under the current situation of the China-US trade conflicts. In this paper, we try to uncover the risk spreading channels by means of volatility spillovers within the Chinese sectors using stock market data. By applying the generalized variance decomposition framework based on the VAR model and the rolling window approach, a set of connectedness matrices is obtained to reveal the overall and dynamic spillovers within sectors. It is found that 17 sectors (mechanical equipment, electrical equipment, utilities, and so on) are risk transmitters and 11 sectors (national defence, bank, non-bank finance, and so on) are risk takers during the whole period. During the periods with the extreme risk events (the global financial crisis, the Chinese interbank liquidity crisis, the Chinese stock market plunge, and the China-US trade war), we observe that the connectedness measures significantly increase and the financial sectors play a buffer role in stabilizing the economic system. The robust tests suggest that our results are not sensitive to the changes of model parameters. Our results not only uncover the spillover effects within the Chinese sectors, but also highlight the deep understanding of the risk contagion patterns in the Chinese stock markets., 17 pages, 7 figures, and 3 tables

The US–China trade war has been a key aspect of empirical review in recent times. Using the OECD Inter-Country Input–Output Model, this study proposes an improved incomplete tariff pass-through measurement method of cumulative tariff costs incurred across GVCs. Such an approach provides a more accurate picture of the impact of the US–China trade war on not only themselves but also third-party countries. Our study found that five rounds of tit-for-tat tariff escalation has resulted in an indirect tariff burden of around 23 billion US dollars (USD) in total, of which 67% was caused by the US’s tariffs on Chinese imports. Moreover, perhaps unsurprisingly, the United States and China have suffered most economically, and in addition to direct tariff costs, they have to bear the indirect tariff burden of approximately 10 and 6.5 billion USD, respectively. This was followed by the EU, Canada and Mexico, which incurred indirect tariff costs of around 700 million to 1.7 billion USD. In addition, the burden on third-party countries is expected to rise by 30%–70%, if we consider the hypothesis of complete tariff pass-through.

Purpose Taking an inter-Asian perspective on the perception of China’s rise and power shifts in Asia, this reflection draws on the examples of Hong Kong’s years-long pro-democracy movement, Taiwan’s democratization and India’s anti-China sentiments to discuss the growth of domestic and international discontents against China’s projection of sharp power, even military power, along its peripheries. The severity of these crises suggests that an assertive China has trapped itself in a perpetual cycle of intensifying authoritarian rule at home and seeking expansionary outreach abroad. China’s diplomatic and military adventurism is likely to antagonize potential allies, jeopardizing the hope for inter-Asian solidarity and cooperation. Design/methodology/approach The authors consult relevant secondary literature to contextualize the perception of China’s rise to domination from an inter-Asian perspective. Findings Following the end of the Cold War in 1990 and the demise of the Soviet Union as a Eurasian empire, some cultural theorists proposed a postcolonial, inter-Asian perspective to de-globalize the Euro-American-dominated humanities and social sciences, recognizing that many areas once deemed by the West as marginal and peripheral had contributed to the transformation of the modern world. The nineteenth-century Western imperialists and early twentieth-century Japanese militarists once deployed the geopolitical concept of “Asia” to advance their respective discourses of modernity and progress. Thus, the very notion of Asian solidarity or Pan-Asianism is deeply problematic because it reminds us of the entwined histories of colonial oppression and resistance against imperialistic intrusions. Research limitations/implications The conventional “inter-Asian” perspective that emphasizes relational connectedness across and within nations does not seem applicable to explaining the troublesome relationship between American universalism and China-centric authoritarianism. Practical implications In today’s multipolar world, the USA and China are embroiled in a competitive relationship regarding the shape the global order should take. The recent US-China trade war is only the opening shot in the wider bilateral conflict. Behind this contest for global leadership in economic influence and technology is a serious battle of ideas. Social implications China is still coming to terms with many unexpected consequences of globalization. Steady recovery gave China a temporary reprieve but the overall economy has weakened due to many years of trade disputes with the USA and the COVID-19 pandemic. China has yet to find a way to coexist with a fast-developing India, address the genuine grievances and demands for democratic change in Hong Kong and accommodate a stronger pro-independence force in Taiwan. To revive the vision of inter-Asian solidarity, China should build trust at home and abroad and reimagine institutional mechanisms for conflict resolution. Otherwise, it would trap itself in endless cycles of tensions and conflicts that benefit no one. Originality/value The rapid rise of China to power in the Eurasian continent and Asian waters has not only distorted the inter-Asian vision of seeking unity among postcolonial states but also accelerated competitions for territorial resources and regional dominance. By reflecting on the latest interventions of China in geopolitical affairs, this paper shows that despite the rhetorical appeal of horizontality, the engagement of many emerging Asian powers has diverged from the ideal of inter-Asian cooperation. The task for scholars is to gain a more accurate understanding of the fluid situations on the ground.

The paper analyzes the economic consequences of the US–China trade war on economics in ASEAN-4. The analysis uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. The simulation scenarios depicted s...

The Sino-US trade war has become more and more fierce. From March 2018 to the present, China and the United States have begun to constantly increase tariffs and restrict each other. Negotiations are still going on and it seems that no real progress has been made. Soybean procurement, sanctions against Huawei, chip battles, intellectual property wars, and technology transfer have been escalated, and both sides of the trade have been affected to varying degrees. At the end of 2019, if all the tariffs in the Trump plan were implemented, it meant that almost all goods from China (worth about $550 billion) would be subject to punitive tariffs. First Opium War‘ Britain often called it the first Sino-British war or "commercial war". It was a war of aggression launched by Britain from China from 1840 to 1842, and it was also the beginning of modern Chinese history. In 1840, the British government used Lin Zexu's Humen cigarettes as an excuse to decide to send the expeditionary forces to invade China. In June 1840, the British warships arrived in the Pearl River Estuary in Guangdong, blocking the seaport, and the Opium War began. The Chinese and British sides signed the "Nanjing Treaty", the first unequal treaty in Chinese history. China began to rip land, indemnify, and negotiate tariffs to foreign countries. The Nanjing Treaty seriously endangered China's sovereignty. China began to become a semi-colonial, semi-feudal society, losing its independent status and promoting the disintegration of the natural economy.

The sudden escalation of the US-China trade war has negatively impacted global trade and the WTO, and its effects will last for a long time. This article centres on the US anti-dumping measures against Chinese exports within the trade war. The article attempts to explain the failure of the US trade policies in terms of anti-dumping measures; policies which were found to be inconsistent with the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA). Rather than complying with the Appellate Body Reports, the US insisted on using procedures inconsistent with the ADA, such as the zeroing methodology to overprotect the US industries. The US even blocked the appointment of Appellate Body Members and paralysed the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Mechanism. Apart from political and economic reasons, one of the underlying reasons for the US to trigger a trade war with China would be anti-dumping measures. Antidumping measures are designed to balance unfair pricing strategies; however, the US is misusing the measures in order to avoid a trade deficit with China.

This study describes and analyses the recently adopted foreign investment law (the Law) of China. First, this paper presents reasons for the adoption of the Law. For example, we focus on the trade war between the US and China, which has greatly affected the adoption of the Law. The political background that influenced the adoption of the law is revealed. Of note, legal techniques used by the Chinese legislators in the Law are evaluated. For example, a list system for investment sectors is used, which divides all industries into categories with a special regime. This system divides all industries into four categories: (1) encouraged, (2) permitted, (3) restricted, and (4) prohibited. In conclusion, this study emphasizes that changes achieved by the Law are not revolutionary. Some of the consequences that the adoption of the law entails is analyzed. Thus, the Law represents a gradual evolution in how foreign investors access the Chinese economy.

The 2020 US Presidential election is now over. After listening to the essence of Mr. Biden’s inauguration speech, “America is Back!,” people around the world are cautiously expecting the revival of multilateralism. This research is to tackle a fundamental question of: “Is America Back to Multilateralism?,” by focusing on the US’s China trade policy under the Biden presidency. This essay consists of five parts including Introduction and Conclusion. Part two will review the development of postwar multilateralism which constructed the rulebased trade governance. Part three will analyze the challenge and crisis of contemporary multilateralism under former President Trump and the possibility of its resurrection under Biden administration. The author will review the origin and evolution of the US-China trade war. Part four will look into the possibility of reconstructing multilateral world for sustainable development. Part five will conclude the essay predicting the US’s China trade policy under the Biden administration.

PurposeThis study examines whether consumer brand engagement (CBE) can mitigate the negative effects of economic animosity (EA) on purchase intention (PI) and strengthen the positive effect of country-of-origin (COO) on PI.Design/methodology/approachUsing questionnaires distributed to 372 young Chinese adults, the study collected PI data for US products in the Chinese market. Partial least square structural equation modeling was adopted.FindingsThis study found a positive relationship between COO and CBE and a negative relationship between EA and CBE. CBE exhibits a partial mediating effect in the relationship between COO and PI and a full suppression effect on EA toward PI.Research limitations/implicationsThis research is limited to China; future research could extend this framework to the United States.Practical implicationsThis study contributes to relationship marketing knowledge. Furthermore, it provides new tools for multinational corporations to deploy their marketing strategies and avoid negative consequences stemming from the EA effect in the Chinese market following the US–China trade war.Originality/valueThis study is the first to extend COO and EA research to CBE discipline.

PurposeInternational tourism and FDI inflows have generated detectable beneficial impacts on the economy of Estonia in the last decades. However, recently, poor international market conditions mostly caused by the trade war and COVID-19 pandemic have been a potential threat to these two factors. Besides, the poor performance of investments in recent years is behind the stagnation of productivity in Estonia. This study examines the dynamics of the effects of these factors on the rate of economic growth in Estonia and provides policy implications in line with sustained recovery.Design/methodology/approachA nonlinear ARDL technique is employed in this study to investigate the long-run effects of FDI and the degree of tourism specialization on economic growth rate.FindingsOur findings indicate that the economic growth rate of Estonia in the long run has been positively affected by both the rate of FDI inflows and international tourism.Originality/valueThis is the first study that employs a non-linear approach to investigate the dynamics of long-run effects of FDI and tourism specialization on the rate of economic growth in Estonia and provides policy implications in line with optimal growth strategy considering the economic structure, the current level of productivity and available potentials in this economy.

The recent U.S.–China trade conflicts cast new light on the role of trade policies in global value chains (GVCs). Contrary to the expectation that trade restrictions lead to the shrinking or disruption of GVCs, our article posits that the unintended consequences of trade policies (both restrictions and trade agreements) are amplified by the prevalence and organizational complexity of GVCs. We anchor our argument in the historical evolution of three classic GVCs – apparel, automobiles, and electronics – from the 1970s to the present. Our framework highlights the dynamic interaction between GVC-oriented trade policies and firm strategies, which often has counterintuitive implications in terms of upgrading outcomes for the countries and companies involved in these GVCs. While trade policies often provide momentum for an adaptive reconfiguration of GVCs, firms’ strategic actions are crucial in modifying the geographic and organizational features of GVCs in ways that support their longevity. Firm strategies can mediate the effect of trade policies on GVC configurations in two ways: (1) firms can accommodate trade restrictions and trade agreements by altering supply and demand locations and by switching supply-chain partners; and (2) firms pursue diverse strategies to upgrade their value chain activities, leveraging the shifting geographies associated with new trade rules.